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And welcome everybody to another
smart money circle update. 

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I'm Adam Sarhan. 
With me today is John Davi, 

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who's the founder CEO&CIO of 
Astoria Advisors with 

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approximately 1.4 billion in a 
UN. 

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John, welcome to the show. 
Thanks for having me, Adam. 

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So John, I always like to begin.
Can you tell us your story and 

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how you got to where you are 
today, please? 

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Sure so. 
You want the whole life cycle 

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story or you want just the story
of story? 

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Anything you want. 
To share. 

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Sure. 
So I mean I I'll talk just about

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the professional career. 
So you know started in the late 

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90s, I was a research analyst 
and Merrill Lynch's quantitative

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derivative research group. 
I spent the good 18 years 

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between Morgan Stanley and 
Merrill Lynch doing research 

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content for full construction. 
And then in 2017, I started a 

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story of advisors. 
So here we are now, you know, 6 

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1/2 years later and we're 
managing 1.4 billion. 

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Our focus is in a quantitative 
macro asset allocation exclusive

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for independent RIA's. 
We have a range of solutions 

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ranging from, you know, 
quantitative stock portfolios, 

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ETF model portfolios. 
We became the sub advisor for 

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the access of story inflation 
sensitive ETF to pick a PPI 

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about a year and a half ago. 
So we have you know a couple 

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different solutions of how we 
connect with advisors. 

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You know we're known for serving
as an outsourced CIL. 

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Our research has published a 
couple different venues, you 

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know Seeking Alpha, etf.com, you
know go on CNBC, Bloomberg TV 

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quite often. 
So we've got the, you know, a 

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range of solutions. 
We've got good people, three 

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safe phase on staff. 
We've got you know seven 

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employees. 
We've never had any turnover in 

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our firm's history, which I'm 
really proud of. 

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So yeah, that's what a little 
bit about what we do. 

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I love that. 
So thank you for that. 

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So let's talk about the 
investment strategy and how you 

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view the world. 
Sure. 

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So I would say you know our, our
focus for let's say our 

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strategic asset allocation 
portfolios is you know we'll 

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combine macro plus quantitative.
I find some firms either do 

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macro, some far as just pure 
quantitative, but you know we, 

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we like to say we're the 
intersection of the two. 

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You know I think in a in an 
ideal world where we're saying 

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OK take a blank sheet of paper, 
you know identify where we are 

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in the market cycle, where we're
in the economic cycle. 

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Historically what factors 
sectors, countries, sectors have

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done well in that part of the 
cycle, build an ETF portfolio 

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that kind of you know tracks 
that view, use a little bit of 

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alternatives in order to kind of
dampen and soften our portfolio 

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volatility. 
So that's kind of what we do in 

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a nutshell. 
I mean there's fifty different 

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indicators we look at, we 
download them systematically. 

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The investment committee meets 
every month. 

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We look at our indicators, 
identify we're in the cycle. 

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We review our portfolio tilts. 
We know exactly every in a week 

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what our tilts are, what its 
deviation is, what our 

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overweights on the weights are 
at each sector. 

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We have on our website 
storyadvisors.com, a cycle 

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indicator deck where we 
literally list each of our 

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tilts, each of our indicators, 
how they're progressing. 

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And you know, I think that's. 
Over time past performance on 

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indicative future results, but 
you know we've been able to 

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demonstrate that we've been able
to participate in the market, 

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you know during the upswings, 
protect some capital when the 

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market goes you know down 
because we are diversified, we 

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have alternatives. 
So I think we've demonstrated 

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some reasonable success and I 
think that's why investors, you 

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know, I've been generally pretty
happy over you know long periods

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of time so. 
No, I love that. 

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So you're quantitative with the 
global macro overlay. 

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You said tilts for people that 
are not familiar. 

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Can you please explain what that
is? 

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Yeah. 
So you know we're benchmark 

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oriented. 
We don't just take you know 

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excessive risk like we will, you
know, make sure that we are 

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within a normal range, couple 
100 basis points let's say of 

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risk versus our benchmark in a 
particular sector style theme 

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factor. 
You know, currently right now we

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think that you know, inflation 
is going to be stickier and 

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higher for longer. 
We've had that view for a while.

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So we've been protecting our 
portfolios with let's say PPI, 

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which is inflation ETF that 
we're the sub advisor for. 

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You know, I think that's like a 
good indication of like we had 

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this foresight 2 1/2 years ago. 
We built a solution in an SMA 

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format. 
We work with access investments 

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to kind of bring it to life. 
So that is kind of a tilt in our

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portfolio per se. 
We'll have other tilt in the 

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portfolio depending on the year.
In the beginning of this year it

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was like very much the kind of 
defensive oriented portfolio 

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construction we've. 
Increase some of our risk as the

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recession, which most widely 
anticipated predict the 

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recession that hasn't happened 
yet. 

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As the recession fears have come
down, we've increased some of 

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the risk in the portfolio, but 
that's been through other 

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factors like international 
quality stocks, international 

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dividend paying stocks. 
But you know it's a core 

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satellite approach, right. 
We're strategic. 

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We want to be benchmark 
oriented, but then use our 

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overlay to kind of add in a 
couple 100 basis points about 

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performance give or take. 
In any given year. 

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That's wonderful. 
So do you offer solutions to 

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individual investors as well or 
only to financial advisors? 

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So yeah, we're an intermediary 
for other financial advisors. 

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We don't go direct to the end 
investors. 

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We're not financial advisors, 
we're not planners. 

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You know all of our assets are 
you know where we're working 

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with other financial advisor 
either physically managing the 

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portfolios for them or giving 
them our portfolios and doing 

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like model delivery. 
So that's different for some of 

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our peers. 
I'll just make that point 

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because some of our peers, they 
don't touch the money. 

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They're not doing the portfolio 
construction, they're not doing 

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the trade in, they're just 
sending their models on temps 

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and then hoping to raise assets,
whereas we're, you know, 

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actually bolted underneath the 
RIA at the custodians and we're 

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doing the physical trading for 
them. 

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Got it. 
And your PP i.e. 

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TF that's available for 
everybody, just for clarity's 

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sake, is that correct? 
Yes. 

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OK, excellent. 
So if a financial advisor wants 

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a solution global macro and or 
quantitative and or help 

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managing the portfolio with a 
lot of your input, they can come

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to you. 
They'd open up an account, you'd

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sub advise it and then you guys 
have a relationship, you'd 

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handle the money management side
and then they can go out and do 

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what they do best is acquire new
clients, build those 

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relationships, so on and so 
forth. 

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Is that correct? 
That is essentially the value 

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proposition that we offer, which
is not different from like what?

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You would get it like an SEI and
invest net. 

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It's just that we think there 
were a lot were a lot cheaper 

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like our goal would be like to 
be the Vanguard and Tam space 

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where we can do it at much more 
cost effective price point. 

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We also don't think that like at
investment you've got 10,000 

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solutions, I don't think you 
need 10,000 solutions. 

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So we've got a core strategic 
asset allocation models. 

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We've got quantitative stock 
portfolios, we've got yeah, you 

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can come in, we've got 
quantitative stock portfolios, 

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we have our ETF, so. 
That's kind of, you know, 

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there's enough solutions that we
can offer people to kind of 

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satisfy their, you know, their 
demands. 

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I love that. 
So let's talk about risk 

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management for a second. 
John, how do you handle risk and

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what mistakes do you see people 
make with respect to risk 

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management? 
I think for risk management, you

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know, our goal is to like you 
know, include alternatives in 

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the portfolio, ones that are 
inversely correlated. 

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So sometimes we see portfolios 
where it's like high yield 

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bonds. 
You know, leverage, credit 

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leverage loans, senior loans, 
you know, real estate, you know 

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those have positive correlation 
with risk with equities let's 

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say, whereas our alternatives 
you know will be inversely 

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correlated, still inversely or 
very low correlation. 

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So we use a ticker BTAL which is
-, 70% correlated with the S&P. 

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You know we've used gold in the 
past which was very low 

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correlation. 
Gold miners merger arbitrage, so

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you know we're looking for like 
1015% of our portfolios to be in

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these alternatives. 
I think as far as risk 

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management, like you know going 
into last year we kind of 

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identified that we would have 
higher inflation, you know Fed 

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that was you know going to be 
raising interest rates. 

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So you know we owned a lot of 
short duration bonds. 

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We had a lot of cash like 
instruments. 

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We were defensively positioned. 
We have PPI in our portfolio 

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that inflation ETF. 
And you know that helped, right.

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That's a form of risk management
and we had you know very good 

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year last year, you know in our 
SMA, you know portfolios. 

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So you know how did we catch 
this. 

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You know I think it's looking at
history, looking at data, 

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looking at time series, reading 
research, doing our own 

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research, looking at independent
research and you know we were 

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able to identify that we were 
going to have an issue. 

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So and honestly Adam even going 
into this year if I showed you 

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our year ahead outlook. 
They weren't like, you know, 

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massively saying the run for the
hills. 

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We said there were three things 
that were priced in this year. 

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One, in economic recession, 2 in
the recession and three, you 

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know there was going to be like 
a 20% downturn in the S&P. 

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We that's just a draconian 
outcome because everyone was 

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like run for the hills. 
So if you're saying run for the 

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hills, then you must mean you 
thought the S&P was going to 

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fall, you know, north to 20%. 
We thought that was. 

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Very unlikely to happen. 
In fact, we said of those three 

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things that were priced in, we 
thought maybe one of those three

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would play out, but we doubt 
that like all three would 

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actually play out so. 
No, very smart then. 

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And you were 100% right. 
So very well done. 

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So John, let's talk a little bit
about some timeless lessons 

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you've learned along the way 
that you'd like to share with 

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the audience, please. 
For investing. 

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Anything life, investing, 
leadership, business, I know you

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know anywhere you want to go. 
We'll take it all with the 

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please and and thank you with 
the cherry on top. 

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Yeah. 
I mean, I think you got to be 

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humble, right? 
You know, the market can make 

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you second guess and you know, 
everyone's surprised the S&P's 

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up, you know, 15% this year. 
But you know, who would have 

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expected it? 
Who would expect Apple and 

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Netflix, Google to be up as much
as they are now? 

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You know, I think like you have 
to respect history. 

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You have to actually know what 
happens in economic cycles. 

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You know, I think stick to your 
true north. 

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That's a big thing for us. 
Like our true north is to be 

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diversified across factors using
alternatives. 

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I think once you stray away from
that true north, you can get 

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yourself in trouble. 
So that actually applies the 

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thing for general life, you 
know, lessons too. 

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You know, listen, it's on a 
personal front. 

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You know, there's always going 
to be somebody smarter than you 

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that can work, you know, faster,
harder, but you know you have to

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stay in your lane and know what 
you, you don't want to do and 

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want to be successful at. 
So we like to say that we're 

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very good, you know, content 
generators, that's where we want

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to like, you know, really 
emphasize, you know, people. 

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Some of our peers may have 
better returns maybe to take 

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more risk. 
You know what, we're always 

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going to be diligent with our 
portfolio construction, follow 

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our research, publish good 
content and I think that's kind 

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of you can translate that in the
outside world, yeah. 

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No, I love that. 
So let's talk about some 

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timeless mistakes. 
What are some timeless mistakes 

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you've learned along the way and
that you'd like to share with? 

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How do you avoid them? 
Well, I think for invest in, you

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know, you have to be careful 
like there is. 

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When when you're so sure of 
something that something will 

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happen, you know does the market
will keep you humble and you 

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know surprise you. 
So you know again we weren't as 

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bearish going into this year, 
but we certainly didn't expect 

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you know a 15% rally in the S&P 
and I certainly didn't expect 

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you know, developed 
international markets to be up, 

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you know 15% as well. 
So I think you know just you 

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have to like follow your models 
but then keep an open eye and 

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just you know. 
Just don't be close minded when 

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it comes to like investing. 
Like have a process follow it, 

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but be open minded. 
Yeah, that's really, really 

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powerful. 
So let's talk about adversity 

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for a second. 
What are some obstacles that 

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you've or adversity you faced 
over your life on or off Wall 

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Street and how do you overcome 
that and what are some lessons 

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that you've learned? 
You know, as an entrepreneur, 

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you know, startup company, you 
know you're going against the 

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behemoths, you know the 800 
pound gorillas, you know you 

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it's daunting, right? 
You've got to just stay focused,

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work hard, be openminded. 
You know, you explained to me 

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before by your business and you 
know, I hope to talk to you 

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afterwards, But you know, I 
think like, you know, there's a 

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lot of anything that like. 
Takes a long time and is 

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successful like nothing comes 
easy. 

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You've got to put in the time 
and the effort. 

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So you know, there's that book, 
you know, 10,000 hours. 

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You got to put in 10,000 hours. 
So you know, I I think like 

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anything can be done if you just
put your mind to it and you 

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surround yourself with good 
smart people, which I think we 

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have Astoria. 
So yeah, I mean that's been, you

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know, it's been challenging, but
it's very rewarding too be a 

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startup in the asset management 
industry where it's like. 

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Every day, you know some large S
managers taking in five, ten, 

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$20 billion, you know, but 
what's your edge, right? 

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What's your true north and 
separate yourself. 

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So these things that I think 
have been like, you know, 

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overcome an adversity. 
I love that. 

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Now, what advice would you give 
your 20 or 30 year old self? 

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I would say use technology. 
Embrace computer programming, 

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you know. 
I think code in and program is 

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going to be like, the equivalent
of, like, speaking English. 

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Like my parents immigrated from 
Italy. 

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They came here, they really have
an education, then don't speak. 

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You know, they speak English 
now. 

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But like, I think code in and 
program is going to be the 

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equivalent of that. 
And the very near future, you'll

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still need humans and 
salespeople and whatnot, but, 

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you know, you don't want to get 
behind like the data. 

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And, you know, there's so much 
data being produced and who can 

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effectively process the data. 
And you know, make good 

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insights. 
I think that could be very 

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powerful. 
No, I love that. 

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That's really, really, really 
powerful. 

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Final question for you today, 
John, is what's the best piece 

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of advice you'd like to share 
with the audience? 

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For investing. 
Anything investing your life or 

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true north anywhere you want to 
go. 

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You know, we're at a period now 
where the SP is being dominated 

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by, you know, 7-8 stocks and 
massive concentration risk. 

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I know everyone thinks that 
Apple and Netflix and Google are

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going to keep going up. 
I've just appeared to my career 

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where these stocks, they don't, 
you know, they come down from 

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earth and there's a new market 
leader. 

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So yeah, just be openminded, 
right? 

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Like, you know, change. 
You know, you have to like 

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there's different cycles and you
have to like, build your 

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portfolios depending on where we
are in the cycle. 

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And I think the fact that people
crowding into those seven stocks

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means that they're pretty 
bearish on. 

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The rest of the US market and 
probably the rest of the world, 

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we meet with financial advisors 
all the time. 

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We inherit portfolios like 
nobody wants to own 

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international stocks, Why Like 
they're cheaper like this ever 

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purpose in your portfolio. 
They add diversification 

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benefits. 
So you know just be open minded 

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like I I think like that would 
be one thing I I want to stick 

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with on this webinar. 
No, I love that. 

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00:16:29,890 --> 00:16:31,250
Well, that's really, really 
great advice. 

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John, thank you so much 
everybody. 

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You can go to storyadvisors.com 
and hopefully John will have you

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00:16:36,130 --> 00:16:39,010
on again soon. 
Thanks so much, Adam.