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One and welcome everybody to 
another smart money circle 

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update. 
I'm Adam Sarhan. 

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With me today is Tom Samuelson, 
who's the CIO of Vineyard Global

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Advisors with over 500 million 
in a UN. 

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Tom, welcome to the show. 
Great. 

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Good to be with you, Adam. 
So Tom, we always like to begin.

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Can you tell us a little about 
your story and how you got to 

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where you are today, please? 
Sure. 

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I started in the energy 
industry, the oil and gas 

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business, and after earning a 
petroleum engineering degree at 

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University of Tulsa, I was 
assistant to vice President of 

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Finance at Helmick and Payne, 
which is a large contract 

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drilling company, and I met many
Wall Street analysts in that 

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position and then went to work. 
As an analyst in Chicago for 

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Duff and Phelps, where I became 
a partner of the firm. 

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I then went to O'Connor and 
Associates which is a large 

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options trading firm eventually 
bought by Swiss Bank and that 

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was partners money. 
So I ran a long short energy 

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book for them. 
I We used the number of creative

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options, strategies to manage 
risk, and I, I. 

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I became firmly indoctrinated in
risk management and the 

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different techniques to manage 
risk, and then went to Denver to

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run the energy mutual fund of 
Invesco Funds Group, took that 

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from bottom quartile whipper 
peer group to upper quartile. 

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When I managed that, I also 
managed the energy portion of 

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the University of Notre Dame's 
endowment. 

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And for the last 20-3 years 
though, I've branched off and 

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and looked at all sectors before
forming Vineyard Global 

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Advisors. 
I was Chief Investment Officer 

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of First Ally Satara, where we 
built out a series of risk 

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managed strategies. 
And much of that philosophy 

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continues today at Vineyard 
Global Advisors. 

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I love it. 
What a great story. 

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Duffin Phelps and you've got 
Invesco and you've branched off 

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on your own. 
You mentioned risk management, 

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which I'll get to a little bit 
later, which is a core theme of 

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the show. 
But before we get there, can you

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tell us a little about your 
investment strategy, please, and

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your philosophy? 
Right. 

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We believe in managing both the 
good times and bad and. 

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You know we we, we talked quite 
a bit about the math of 

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volatility and and you know an 
interesting story. 

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I I was playing tennis with a a 
group of guys earlier this month

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and and one was talking about 
his growth fund that's up over 

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40% year to date. 
And I said well, how'd you do 

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last year? 
He said well not not good. 

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I was down 65%. 
I said, what about the last two 

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years? 
He said. 

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Well. 
You know, down close to 80 and 

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another guy in the group said, 
well, all right, well you were 

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down 80 and now you're up a 
little over 40. 

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You made back half that loss and
and I said you might want to 

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check the math on that. 
Of course, when you're down 80%,

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you need to gain 400% to recoup 
that loss and get it get back to

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making money for your clients. 
And you know, in other words, it

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would take 4 1/2 years of 40% 
gains to recoup that loss. 

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Where most of our strategies 
were down mid to low single 

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digits last year after strong 
performance in 2021. 

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So they are either on the cusp 
of or back to making money for 

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clients. 
So that that philosophy of risk 

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management understanding the 
the, the math of volatility is, 

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is really important in in the 
way we manage money. 

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I love it, I call that. 
I'm on a separate note, this is 

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the first time we're speaking, 
but I call it negative math 

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where the market goes down to 
the stock goes down 10%, you 

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need 11% gain to get back to 
even if it goes down 50%, you 

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need 100% gain to get back to 
even and like you said down 8400

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and so on and so forth. 
Yeah. 

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It's exactly right. 
It's amazing how many people 

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don't don't realize that you're 
you're coming off a lower base 

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so the the percentages can be 
misleading 100%. 

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So we mentioned risk management.
Can you tell us a little about 

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how you handle risk and what 
mistakes you see people make 

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with respect to risk management,
please? 

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Sure. 
We we have a multilayer approach

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to risk management. 
We we have several macro models 

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that grade the market backdrop 
from in five phases from maximum

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bullish, bullish neutral bear, 
maximum Bear. 

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Last year we were we were in 
bear or maximum bear for. 

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You know the duration or most of
the duration of of that bear 

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market. 
So with that we will set equity 

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exposure that's appropriate to 
the market backdrop and there's 

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several layers of risk 
management. 

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One is the, I say the first line
of defense is diversification. 

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So you know we we run 
diversified portfolios. 

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We we focus on positions, 
individual position sizing. 

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And the second layer would be 
let's say the market start to 

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turn more volatile, more 
defensive, we may increase 

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exposure to the more defensive 
sectors, utilities, consumer 

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staples and it is the market 
turns more bullish. 

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Typically it's consumer 
discretionary and technology and

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and cyclicals like financials 
and energy that that would 

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outperform. 
So that that's those sector 

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weightings can help. 
And then the final piece is 

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raising cash and using a hedge, 
so an inverse fund that goes up 

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when the market goes down and 
the right percentage and because

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of that take our risk managed 
income strategy. 

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Russell 3000 enhanced dividend 
was off a half a percent last 

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year after being up 27% in 2021.
And even though it's it's lagged

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the market so far, it's now back
to making money again. 

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So it it's it's it's a multi 
layered approach that 

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incrementally increases 
defensiveness depending if the 

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market continues to deteriorate 
and I love that, that's actually

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really, really good. 
So you talk about 

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diversification, you spoke about
having different models that 

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rate the market. 
Is that a rating scale from like

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let's say 1 to 10 or one to 100 
or or how do you set that up? 

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It it, it is a. 
It's a quantitative scale. 

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But then we take those ranges 
and. 

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Convert them into a basic 
message on the market, be it one

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of those five phases and you 
know generally the when the 

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markets are neutral to maximum 
bullish, we don't see the big 

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kind of drawdowns. 
The the drawdowns of five to 10%

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are not overly concerning to us.
It's kind of like going from if 

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you're traveling from point A to
point B in a car, there's going 

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to be a certain amount of. 
You know motion sensation, it's 

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just the if there isn't, you're 
not getting to your destination.

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So it it's it's the big potholes
that that are going to derail 

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you and and cause you to never 
get to your end goal that we're 

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concerned about And those happen
and Bear and Max Bare faces. 

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No, I love that. 
So would you say your strategy 

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is more fundamental, more 
technical and more quantitative?

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Or how do you label it from a 
for people that want to follow 

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along and learn? 
More, it's a. 

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It's a blend of both. 
I'm a. 

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Chartered Financial Analyst, the
Chartered Market technician with

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the engineering degree I did. 
I'd say 85% of our approach is 

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quantitative, but there's still 
a a subjective element to it, an

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overlay if you will. 
We we score individual stocks on

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a bottom up approach and we 
grade them from zero to 100. 

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Eighties and above are are 
attractive in terms of their 

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growth and returns on capital 
relative to their valuation. 

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We have sector models that help 
us overweight and underweight 

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sectors and then we have a 
couple macro models that grade 

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the the entire you know 
investment backdrop. 

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So there there is a a subjective
overlay the for example the the 

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banking crisis that hit with 
Silicon Valley in the second 

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quarter in March, we we just 
knew that that was going to 

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weigh on financials and. 
And it will take time for the 

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trend following indicators in 
our sector model to pick up on 

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that. 
Same thing with, you know, oil 

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and gas was white hot last year,
but then oil began it's it's 

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plunge, it's it's down 40% from 
its peak back in the spring of 

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last year and natural gas is 
down 73%. 

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That decline in oil and gas is a
leading indicator for energy 

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stocks. 
And as we saw that declining, 

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eventually the trend following 
indicators will pick up on it. 

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But we moved slightly ahead of 
when our sector models did and 

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we also have a bias. 
So the quantitative approaches 

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is good but there can be certain
elements like a banking crisis 

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that aren't picked up on in a 
timely fashion. 

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So it's it's a blend of 
fundamental technical and and 

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quantitative disciplines. 
But no, I'm a big fan of both. 

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Also, I wrote a book called 
Psychological Analysis for 

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Investing, which is the third 
cornerstone, if you will, at the

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third leg of the pyramid. 
So I'm a big fan of I Smell what

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you're cooking and I love it. 
So let's shift gears a little 

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bit, Tom, and talk about some 
timeless lessons you've learned 

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along the way that you'd like to
share with the audience either 

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in the market or in life or 
both. 

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Right. 
There's there's there's been 

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several and you remember 
episodes over your career and I.

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I do what you know, I was 
listening to an interview of of 

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John Chambers, who was the CEO 
of Cisco during the Internet 

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boom. 
And so Cisco's kind of a poster 

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child of that era, just like 
NVIDIA is now of artificial 

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intelligence. 
And you know, John, John was 

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saying that the bulk of the 
revenues from that era came 

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through after the early days. 
And and he believed we were 

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still in the early days of 
artificial intelligence. 

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And I I think that's true, but 
for investors, remember Internet

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Cisco soared from 95 to 2000 and
only 10% of the revenues that 

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come through over that 15 year 
period that stretched to 2010. 

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So he's absolutely right. 
The 90% of the revenues came 

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after 2000. 
But all of the stock market 

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performance came in the first 
five years. 

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Cisco actually declined 75% from
2000 to 2010. 

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So one of the the tenants is is 
get in front of big trends but 

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pay attention to evaluations and
speculation and and bubbles and 

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when you get to 40 times sales 
you you are in a bubble. 

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It, it, it, it's all been said. 
Well, you never know. 

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Well, when you're at 40 times 
sales, that that should be 

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telling you you're at a bubble. 
And there can be enormous damage

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that comes from the implosion of
these bubbles. 

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Many cloud stocks for example 
dropped over 80% last year. 

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No that that's so smart. 
So you're saying that the 

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markets are forward-looking 
mechanism and it's going to 

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anticipate those earnings, 
remove the stocks going to move 

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up and then subsequently down 
before the revenue necessarily 

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kicks in, if it kicks in at all?
Exactly, right. 

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Stocks are a discounting 
mechanism and and if if 

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artificial intelligence, which 
which we're big fans of this has

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a 39% compound annual growth 
rate going out over the next 

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nine years, we're going to grow 
from 67 billion to 1.3 trillion.

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There's going to be a lot of 
beneficiaries of that. 

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But if it's anything like the 
Internet, a lot of that will be 

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discounted before the bulk of 
the revenues comes through. 

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You know, one other kind of. 
Fun story or story that I 

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remember over my career is is 
during that that Internet phase 

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of 2000 there was a there was an
old market technician. 

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He was he was old school. 
His name was Justin Namus and he

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was he was highly respected in 
investment circles and but he 

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did things in the old school way
he'd he'd literally chart by 

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hand, you know the indices and. 
Individual stocks. 

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And he felt that gave him the 
best feel. 

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And I remember him coming into 
the firm. 

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I was, I was working at the time
and he said, well it's over. 

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And this was the fall of 2000 
and there was a question from a 

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portfolio manager who said what 
do you mean we're we're at the 

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dawn of the Internet era And he 
said, I always remember his 

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quote. 
His quote was, well, that is an 

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intellectual. 
Argument. 

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I'm just telling you what the 
laws of or the the laws of 

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supply and demand are telling me
and a lot of good news is 

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discounted and there's these 
stocks are going to decline and 

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decline for a long time. 
There's a lot of pain coming. 

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So and he was absolutely right. 
And you know, it's just it's one

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of the lessons I've learned over
my career is is pay attention to

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valuations, pay attention to 
bubbles and also. 

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There's a there's a 
characteristic look, we're we're

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not there yet. 
I I think with the A I frenzy, 

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if you you go into a vertical 
phase like a F16 going straight 

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up, these stocks will go 
vertical. 

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You know that this often said 
that markets decline on 

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pessimism. 
They bottom on despair. 

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They they rise on optimism, but 
they peak into euphoria, and 

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we're not at euphoria yet. 
And there's a there's typically 

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a look of a bubble, and we will 
get to it. 

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Fear of missing out. 
Euphoria will drive many of 

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these stocks vertical. 
If it's anything like the 

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Internet craze, no, I love that.
And talk about some timeless 

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mistakes that you've learned 
along the way and or you've seen

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other people make. 
And how would you recommend 

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avoiding them? 
I think that that that's one of 

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them. 
One of the main ones is just pay

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attention to to risk. 
It can be really damaging if 

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it's we we manage a lot of money
for clients that are on the cusp

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of or into their retirement 
years and and once you start 

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withdrawing 3% or so a year from
your nest egg, it's going to 

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have an even lesser chance to 
recover from something like an 

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8080% loss, so. 
One of the lessons, markets now 

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move faster. 
So with the advent of 

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algorithmic trading and now we 
have activist central banks that

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that if we see a slow down 
they're they're much more 

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willing to to accommodate that 
with liquidity. 

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And we we saw this in, in 2019, 
you know Fed Chairman Powell 

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Blinkton and the the central 
markets move faster now. 

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So we've had to evolve some of 
our risk models to to adapt to 

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that and you know a willingness 
to to markets evolve and there's

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a need to tweak our models and 
refine our models to to evolve 

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with it. 
Got it. 

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No, that makes perfect sense. 
So make sure you evolve isn't if

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I hear you properly, don't be 
too rigid in your approach. 

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Make sure you're open and open 
minded and flexible and evolved 

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as well. 
So I love that. 

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Tom, let me ask you this 
question. 

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What's the best piece of advice 
you'd like to give your 30 year 

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old self or you'd like to share 
with the audience? 

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I would say identify the big 
trends, get in front of the big 

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trends, but be aware of 
valuation and be aware of 

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bubbles. 
Love it, love it. 

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Well, Tom, thank you so much as 
always for coming on the show. 

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This has been absolutely 
fantastic. 

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What is the best way for people 
to get in touch with you? 

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You can get in touch with us 
through our website 

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www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com 
and we'd love to hear from you. 

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And thank thanks very much, 
Adam. 

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Enjoyed the show, beautify, 
enjoyed having you on. 

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Hopefully we'll see you again 
soon. 

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Thanks, Tom.