1 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:18,280 Hello, this is Eva and you're listening to the In Between Tech 2 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,920 and Trust podcast. And in today's episode, we talk 3 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,640 about one of my favorite topics and that is the future. 4 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,200 And when we talk about the future, currently, there's so 5 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,040 much uncertainty. Like everyone that you ask, they 6 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:36,360 say they cannot plan more than five to six months ahead because 7 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:40,080 we find ourselves in this tech acceleration, like this 8 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:44,280 technological acceleration of times also with these rapid 9 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,720 innovation cycles and kind of information overload that 10 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,000 everyone just is a bit exhausted. 11 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:55,200 But at the same time, we do need to find ways to plan and we also 12 00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:00,240 need to be able to trust into what we plan towards and to look 13 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,560 into scenarios of how it actually looks like. 14 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,640 And for that, I have one of the best experts with me in 15 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,560 conversation, and that is Professor Doctor Heiko 16 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,960 Vandekart. And Heiko speaks from more than 17 00:01:11,960 --> 00:01:16,320 20 years of experience as a professor of foresight and also 18 00:01:16,320 --> 00:01:19,400 as a business practitioner. And he shares with us of what it 19 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:24,160 means to apply a future's literacy of how we can also make 20 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:29,080 use to plan ahead and use foresight planning for actual 21 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:33,160 business operations and how we as leaders can prepare for the 22 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,240 futures ahead by making up our minds and think about different 23 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,160 kinds of scenarios. He also proposes for specific 24 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:44,720 ones, but I leave them for you to explore throughout to the 25 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:51,040 upcoming conversation. Hello Haiku, and welcome to the 26 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:52,920 In Between Tech and Trust podcast. 27 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,120 Hi Eva, Many thanks for inviting me. 28 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,520 Great to be here. It's so great to have you 29 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,520 because I was really looking forward to having the 30 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,760 conversation on the intersection of foresight, technology and 31 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,120 human systems with you. You've been thinking about like 32 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:12,400 these contexts for many like years and you've also followed 33 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,240 the trends and ecosystems for quite some time. 34 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:20,160 And particularly when it comes to trust and like these areas, I 35 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:24,160 would love your opinion on what has shifted most fundamentally 36 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,440 across the past couple of months and years. 37 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,240 I'm really engaged in the topic of future for many years, for 38 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,560 for more than 20 years now. Every day I try to look into the 39 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,920 future and do this in a very valid way, not only as a 40 00:02:37,920 --> 00:02:41,840 professor in foresight, but also as a business practitioner. 41 00:02:41,920 --> 00:02:44,800 But it's always the core question is what might be the 42 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,440 next big thing, what are very valid scenarios to work with? 43 00:02:48,640 --> 00:02:51,800 And in essence, it's always about making better decisions, 44 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,520 right? So this is what the foresight 45 00:02:54,920 --> 00:02:58,400 profession is seeking for. And we've seen that there is a 46 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,840 professionalization among young people. 47 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:05,920 So I was able to train over 9000 people over the past 20 years 48 00:03:05,920 --> 00:03:09,320 and educate them in scenario planning, scenario techniques. 49 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,160 But that's not the only technique today. 50 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,680 If we want to plan for the future, then we know actually 51 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,200 more than 40 different techniques. 52 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,160 Yeah. And most organizations or 53 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,800 individuals, they like to plan with three or four of them. 54 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,520 So it depends on the context. And as a researcher, I would say 55 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,840 if you choose carefully and if you know the tools in place and 56 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,480 you can combine them, then this adds to the clarity for the 57 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,400 future and also gives you a better feeling and decision 58 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,520 making under in times of uncertainty. 59 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:45,160 So trust is always a central thing in in the scenario and the 60 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,480 projects we do because each scenario exercise where you 61 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,880 simulate, you don't want to predict the future, right? 62 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:55,200 But where you simulate multiple futures in order to see how 63 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,960 different strategies and actions play out in those scenarios, 64 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,520 right? It's really a very comprehensive 65 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:06,560 and network thinking process. So we tend to often first focus 66 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:11,280 on technology, but there are other dimensions we have to look 67 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,160 at equally. And this is the social dimension 68 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:18,079 that ecologic ecology that I mentioned, legal aspects. 69 00:04:18,079 --> 00:04:21,399 Yeah, we have to look into economic things for sure. 70 00:04:21,399 --> 00:04:24,880 Human people, society. And you can have in the end, the 71 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,960 best scenario analysis, but it's always in the end the human 72 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,680 decision, right? So it's good craftsmanship, but 73 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,920 we have to look about the human decision process and the biases 74 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,640 as well. So this is what I'm doing in my 75 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:43,120 in my profession and I'm helping I think people to, to enable 76 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,920 this organization to enable scenario planning, to foster 77 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,040 this scenario thinking and to professionalise. 78 00:04:50,840 --> 00:04:53,920 And the interesting part of also the polls that you just 79 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:58,360 highlighted is on the one hand, side decisions under clarity in 80 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,080 terms of also providing context, and on the other side that the 81 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:07,000 context gets even more complex. How does that fit together? 82 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:12,560 And how do you also navigate as an leader, as an like also CEO, 83 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,400 for example, to bring that together to create clarity under 84 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:21,080 times of complexity and to also communicate it to your teams and 85 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,120 organizations for them to steer forward? 86 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,680 Yeah, that's, that's a good question because if you go back 87 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,400 to the 1970s, right, there's a very Seminole paper in in 88 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:34,000 research was published on environmental uncertainty and 89 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,600 the degree of uncertainty certainty we feel when we take 90 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,760 decisions. This is complexity plus the 91 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,400 degree of dynamics. Complexity means how many things 92 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:48,320 are there out interacting that I have to have on my radar and the 93 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,000 dynamics, how fast things are changing, right. 94 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,920 And we can say with international division of labour 95 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,400 and we have two big organizations, they have to 96 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:02,360 manage 304 hundred suppliers as a supplier base. 97 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,160 Yeah, this adds to complexity, right? 98 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:08,240 And if you look at the dynamics, we see that with different 99 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,960 communication patterns, things are going faster. 100 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,440 The communication is faster, see conversational AI, we will see 101 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,200 real time translation in the future much more. 102 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,160 So this adds to the dynamics. So we have a doubling effect, 103 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,040 right, in what we feel if if situations are uncertain and we 104 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,680 use acronyms, abbreviations for this the VUCA world from the 105 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,160 military. Yeah, this is volatile, 106 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,720 uncertain, complex or even Barney, which means more chaos, 107 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:38,200 brittle world. And this these abbreviations 108 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,200 describe the status we are in of many people feel right. 109 00:06:41,280 --> 00:06:44,320 However, you have to take into account that there's a 110 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,120 difference between the, the subjective, the perceived 111 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,200 uncertainty and the true environmental uncertainty, 112 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,600 because this is also largely shaped by the media, by the 113 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,320 perceptions we have by our direct environment. 114 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:01,640 And there are studies actually researching cation patterns and 115 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,880 examining the voice, the tone of virus we use in in books and, 116 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:10,000 and and in newspapers, etcetera. And over the past 50 to 60 117 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:14,840 years, there is an index value. We lost 25% in positive 118 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:19,120 communication. So you see that we tend to sell 119 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,120 the news and talk in much more negative way. 120 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:28,360 And from innovation literature and and research, we know if we 121 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:32,520 are in a good mood right, then there is a greater output and 122 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,680 there's a greater sense of innovation. 123 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:39,640 Yeah, we have up to 25% more more capable of innovation. 124 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:41,520 We are. So this is important. 125 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,120 If we think about the future, and if you want to shape the 126 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,400 future, then a positive mood accelerates. 127 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:54,320 But when we talk about trust today, according to your opinion 128 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,480 and also according to your conversations that you have on 129 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,400 like the different futures that we're currently looking at, what 130 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,600 has shifted most fundamentally when we talk about trust? 131 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:09,960 Yeah, so trust in in easy, but I would I would say it's the 132 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,760 confidence in another, right and the belief that holds our 133 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:17,640 relationships together. And we we always think that we 134 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,920 are we live in the most chaotic times. 135 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,000 Yeah. But if I like to use historical 136 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,200 analogies and this is one of the 40 techniques of futurists and 137 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,040 you see that there is all has always been propaganda, 138 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,560 misinformation. You have seen industrial 139 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,320 revolutions going on. So people always felt some 140 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,679 uncertainty and drastic situations. 141 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,720 But what has changed is of course the pace of innovation 142 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:47,440 and the progress if it comes to technology and also the virtual 143 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,840 worlds, right Internet and the spaces that have been created. 144 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,720 So these spaces, they have new rules. 145 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,360 We see in those new environments their own incentives. 146 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:01,520 We have specific own physics and it means that we act in in 147 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:05,360 spaces which, which are faster, more anonymous, We see they are 148 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,080 more scalable and less accountable. 149 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,120 And those virtual worlds in region. 150 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,680 And if we compare them with the analogical society in real life, 151 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:19,040 yeah, they they really shape by shaped by anonymity. 152 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,040 So trust in our classic setting means proximity. 153 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,080 So you have shared norms and and institutions. 154 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:28,960 And this is shifting. This has shifts. 155 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,800 So there are different spaces with new rules and they open up. 156 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,400 I don't want to be only negative, right? 157 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,280 Technology isn't bad. Yeah, good or bad thing. 158 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,200 It's it can be used in either way, right? 159 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,880 Two sides of the matter. And those spaces, they can only 160 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,000 also enable us. They create participation, they 161 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:55,400 create network, they create the spaces for education all around 162 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,560 the world. You can have access to the best 163 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,400 education online and massive open online courses. 164 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,840 So two sides of the matter, right? 165 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:09,200 And in a more anonymous way, we have to counteract and find a 166 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:12,400 new mechanisms. And you talked about like those 167 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:16,360 spaces and the mechanisms. And in the work that I do and 168 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:20,400 the encounters that I have, I oftentimes realize that creating 169 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:24,320 those spaces, and I call them the so-called in between states 170 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,120 of like what is mutually perceived as real and what is 171 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:31,120 also served as a basis to debate the future. 172 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,160 It's free. It's become quite hard to do so, 173 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,120 but not because we don't do it, but rather because we are 174 00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:41,480 challenged to embrace different kinds of opinions and also find 175 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,000 mutual grounds. And if I would put out the 176 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,200 hypothesis, we're not just debating the future. 177 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:52,520 We need to have the spaces to agree on reality while embracing 178 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,000 like different kinds of opinions. 179 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,480 Would you agree on that? This is a bold, very powerful 180 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,960 hypothesis, right? I wouldn't agree blindly, but I 181 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,320 have several things that come to my mind when when I listen to 182 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:08,200 you and your hypothesis. A key point is that over the 183 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:12,760 past years, we've seen dramatic increase in the knowledge 184 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:17,840 explosion, right. So this is really at sometimes 185 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,360 it's overwhelming. Analysts predict that over the 186 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:26,960 next years until the year 2050, everything we know today only 187 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,000 makes 1% of the overall knowledge. 188 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:33,880 So in 2000 and 5099% of our knowledge might be new. 189 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,160 Yeah. And I've also recognized this 190 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,120 over the past years in the established trend databases and 191 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,520 my futurist channels. We are also organized the 192 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:46,720 networks, right, the futurists around the world. 193 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:53,000 And you see that 20 years ago I probably spotted 10 or 20 or 30 194 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,840 very original new things, innovation, nice cases per 195 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:01,520 month, right In my work which I used then also my scenario works 196 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:05,440 scenario projects. And today there are 200 to 300 197 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:06,520 per month. Yeah. 198 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:11,320 So the, the trend databases are actually fluted by by insights 199 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,320 by cases, by crowdfunding platforms, etcetera. 200 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:19,600 And this yeah, this is a new situation, right, very drastic 201 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:25,080 in an innovation speed. So with all those massive 202 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:29,120 information and also in some cases misinformation, deep 203 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,840 fakes, fake news, etcetera, is it it has become harder to 204 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,320 create a shared common sense of reality. 205 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:39,960 And usually, if you plan for the future, you would say used to 206 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:44,560 have quite stable status quo situations today as is. 207 00:12:44,560 --> 00:12:48,080 And we were then able to project into the future and draw the 208 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,200 different scenarios. But we've seen even with COVID 209 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:56,000 times that if the premises change fast from week to week in 210 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,160 between months, then your scenarios are already obsolete. 211 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,920 And this is this is a new challenge in an, in a world of 212 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,800 accelerated pace. So University of Oxford and 213 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,120 others, they have started to use actually technology as well in 214 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:13,320 the foresight discipline to make the projects and to make the 215 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,280 tools and techniques more agile and frugal. 216 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,000 They call it even the frugal scenario planning. 217 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,160 Why? Because you, you have to adapt, 218 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,200 you have to find mechanisms to be more adaptive to, to the 219 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,760 changes that you see. So scenario work has never been 220 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,080 a solo trip. It is always a strategic 221 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,800 conversation. This is really, really important 222 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,080 to consider. And if you see the history of 223 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,480 foresight, of future planning, scenario planning over the past 224 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:46,600 decades and from starting from the 70s, this was always about 225 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:51,320 plurality and what the different perspectives and the views of 226 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,280 the future. So we say we have different 227 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,080 thinking heads, right? As foresight professionals, you 228 00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:00,440 not only look at the probable future, but there is also the 229 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,880 normative scenario, the desired future. 230 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,640 So the target, where do I want to be? 231 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,680 What is my, my North star, my desired future? 232 00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:12,160 And there's also the space of opportunities, preferable 233 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:14,920 futures. You have the surprising future 234 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:18,920 and this has become a major part of today's foresight 235 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,400 professionals also to look at all those different future 236 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,600 perspectives. So surprising futures, white 237 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,360 cards, black Swans, surprising events. 238 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,680 This takes a lot of care today as well. 239 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,160 And the interesting part that in your work you not only look at 240 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:37,160 those like different kinds of scenarios and like also 241 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:40,280 different kinds of routes that you can take, but you also aim 242 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,600 and collaborate with organizations to build 243 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,480 resilience. Now we live in so-called times 244 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,200 of tech acceleration. So technology is an essence of 245 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,320 your work as well. On the one hand side, how do you 246 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,320 build resilience with those organizations and what has 247 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:01,120 changed through tech? Well, resilience means that you 248 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:06,360 learn from crisis, from drastic situations you you were in and 249 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,240 that you become stronger afterwards, right? 250 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:13,360 And this is, if important, yeah. The whole discipline of 251 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,560 foresight actually, yeah, adds to this, contributes to this. 252 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,560 As we've just said, there is uncertainty usually if you use 253 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,320 historic data and you extrapolate it, right. 254 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,360 And in many cases, we still do this. 255 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,120 But it's dangerous to do this if you live in turbulent and 256 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:34,400 disruptive times because future history shows that in most cases 257 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,320 it came, it wasn't different than the future. 258 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,000 And disruption usually comes from all the other industries, 259 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,280 not the industry I'm, I'm sitting in. 260 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:46,320 So the scenarios and, and the foresight discipline means to 261 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,600 prepare better for future incidents, for things that 262 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:53,040 could, that might happen. And this adds to the flexibility 263 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,360 of your organization. You can react faster. 264 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,880 You could even if you want to be a front runner, you could get 265 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,200 into alliances and you start shaping the markets. 266 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:07,240 So this is very, very powerful and therefore the whole thinking 267 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,240 of futures, futures planning that's to to make an 268 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,440 organization in the end more future robust or future ready, 269 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:16,240 right. That's to your future, future 270 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,000 preparedness. And we see there's been 271 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:23,520 empirical research of colleague on what makes it really a 272 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,960 sustainable organization. Yeah, a future proof 273 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,200 organization. And from an academic 274 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,640 perspective, you would compare organizations largely investing 275 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,800 in into foresight with organizations that don't. 276 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,480 And you would compare organizations that haven't done 277 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:43,240 so with their status later when they started to invest into 278 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,040 foresight, right? These are the classic 279 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,560 comparisons you do in a longer longitudinal study. 280 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,600 And this has been done over the past 10 years. 281 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:56,680 And we can now empirically prove that if you invest into into 282 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,720 professionalization of your planning practices right, then 283 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,840 this adds to your performance, to your growth, etc. 284 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,200 So it has a clear impact on your organizational performance. 285 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,040 And if you now trim that down a bit and if you would make the 286 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,400 profession of a futurist more tangible, could you share with 287 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,920 me and the audience what you're currently working on and what 288 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:21,800 also your expectations are regarding tech and intelligence? 289 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:26,319 And maybe if you may and want to also provide a glimpse into the 290 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:29,080 future for you think the next big thing's going to be? 291 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,640 This is a this is a good one what keeps me awake right night. 292 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,800 So this is a core thing to structure all the things I stand 293 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,760 across every day. There are so many reports out 294 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:46,160 there and very good ones. You might have seen that World 295 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,240 Economic Forum two years ago they founded the Global 296 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,120 Foresight Network. I'm also participating in and 297 00:17:52,120 --> 00:17:56,520 UNESCO has the futures literacy chairs at university. 298 00:17:56,520 --> 00:18:00,880 So a lot of studies and very helpful reports are being 299 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,200 published and they all have certain assumptions, right, and 300 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,960 network thinking and they come up with single point forecast 301 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,320 estimates. When is something mature? 302 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,200 What about adoption rates? And the timing is also the 303 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:17,680 critical one. So if you see put them, and I've 304 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:21,520 done this, put them on on a timeline, you can see that 305 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,840 there's a lot of discussion centering around when AI will 306 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,200 reach human level, right? Artificial general intelligence, 307 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,880 etcetera. Some proclaim this is in the 308 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,400 year 2045, Others state this is happening earlier. 309 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,680 It's it has also cultural component. 310 00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:44,200 If you ask this in Asia, they usually tend to see this earlier 311 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:48,320 than 2045. N Americans have proven in in 312 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:53,320 most recent research they they expect this to happen later. 313 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:57,160 If you ask very visionary people, they would even say next 314 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:02,200 week or next year, yeah. So this there's also cultural, 315 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,880 normal cultural thing that we have to consider. 316 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:09,680 But I think the whole thing of artificial intelligence and the 317 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,640 work with agent and agent ecosystems, yeah, this is 318 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,400 accelerating very fast. Yeah. 319 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,040 So I, I could even see that in the next months, we would 320 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,680 probably eliminate the out of office mail and have our, our 321 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:27,280 own personal AI copy responding. If somebody wants something, he 322 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:33,440 or she can just speak to my personal AI copy and my avatar 323 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,120 might be able to answer already some of the superficial 324 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,720 questions. And I'm very frequently asked, 325 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,920 Haiko, you're doing this every day, right? 326 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,520 So from your perspective, what's the next big thing, right? 327 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,200 And over the past 10 years and even more, we've seen the smart 328 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,040 classic smartphone, right? And the question is, are we now 329 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,160 entering an era of augmented computing? 330 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,160 I think so. So there's a lot of debates 331 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,440 going on about smart glasses, right? 332 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,760 So they might even be from their weight, 100 grams. 333 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:12,960 So quite light in the future. And I really see a renaissance 334 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:14,680 of city centres. Why? 335 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,760 Because if I'm wearing in the future, if I'm wearing smart 336 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:22,480 glasses, the city, the city centre looks every day, every 337 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,640 hour, it looks differently. So you have all those promotions 338 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,120 then going on and you have a second layer, yeah, from 339 00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:32,640 infrastructure and notifications and things popping up in front 340 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,280 of you. So I believe that this is will 341 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:39,680 be a game changer and how we how we go through environments and 342 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,160 experience them. There were also came across 343 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,960 several cases of ADN solutions with AI in science. 344 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,120 So this will be a tremendous push artificial intelligence for 345 00:20:52,120 --> 00:20:56,520 for how we understand science and how we innovate from physics 346 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,640 experiments, we we can see that they are the experimental is 347 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:05,400 graphical, yeah, but we cannot explain the outcome how the how 348 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,640 this this worked. So they do now reverse 349 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,280 engineering in order to find an explanation for the phenomenons 350 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,560 going on there. And this, this might be a true 351 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:20,040 case in the future that there are certain innovations explain 352 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:25,280 things happening, working in science which at once we cannot 353 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,880 explain, right. So I I think this is also a big, 354 00:21:28,120 --> 00:21:31,840 big change for science. And one of the big changes that 355 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:37,360 is in one of the reports that you co-authored, you describe a 356 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,600 sequence so-called fake news, fake reality, fake futures. 357 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,600 Can you explain that, Shane? Because it sounds quite drastic 358 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,960 and at the same time it also represents something that's much 359 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,760 like much deeper as a societal context and also in the way of 360 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,760 how we form reality overall in essence. 361 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,120 Yeah. So this is a very specific 362 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,480 report. Yeah, it's called fake futures 363 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:08,680 and we really looked at fake news, the digital identities and 364 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,400 the tech space. Yeah, virtual words and how they 365 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,320 change our interaction, the positive things, but also the 366 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:15,160 challenges. Yeah. 367 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,320 And there there are certain examples for this phenomenon you 368 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:22,040 you are describing. It's like a chain from fake 369 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,840 news, right? There is some facts are being 370 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,680 created. It can be something like a 371 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:34,760 manipulated reporting or quite an unrealistic beauty standard 372 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,360 in social media. And this becomes somehow a fake 373 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:39,640 reality. Why? 374 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:44,120 Because it, it makes us believe that this has to be the norm and 375 00:22:44,120 --> 00:22:46,200 we have to work towards this, right? 376 00:22:46,360 --> 00:22:51,600 We have to change our appear, our our look and feel and to 377 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,000 respond to those images. And then this fake reality 378 00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:00,480 becomes finally a fake future. So it's a paradox because fake 379 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,600 inputs don't stay fake, they solidify in the end in real 380 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,000 world outcomes. And to stick with this beauty 381 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,760 example, in social media, you see that then there are virtual 382 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:18,080 beauty full images and we have the virtual influencers. 383 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,920 Yeah. They create then a space or a 384 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,320 certain reality which permanently sticks to those 385 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,560 images which had initially been created as a manipulated word. 386 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,640 So this is the chain we we were describing there. 387 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,920 And this was also the point from where we entered our scenario 388 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:42,280 planning to develop scenarios of fake futures and do this along 389 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,120 different dimensions. Because if you, that's a very 390 00:23:45,120 --> 00:23:48,600 classic scenario approach where you determine two key 391 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,760 uncertainties, right? And with those key 392 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,800 uncertainties, you set up a plot. 393 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,600 Yeah, a scenario canvas. And this is like a scatter plot 394 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,200 or a portfolio. And in our case, we said for the 395 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:04,160 future, it's important. There might be an extreme future 396 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,680 where we have a high trust in technology and society and the 397 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,120 state. Or on the opposite side on this 398 00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:15,400 axis, there might be a strong mistrust in those things, right? 399 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,200 So we made this one of the key uncertainty axis, and the other 400 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,920 one is the perception of the world. 401 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:27,400 There might be 1 extreme poet which describes the only truth. 402 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,360 There's only one reality. Or we might end up in in a world 403 00:24:31,360 --> 00:24:33,360 where we say it's all fake, right? 404 00:24:33,360 --> 00:24:37,320 For certain reasons. And if you combine now those 405 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:42,320 extreme developments, right, you end up in 4 scenario quadrants. 406 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,920 So you combine a word of one reality and the one, only one 407 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,920 truth with trust in technology, the state and society. 408 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:55,440 Or you combine it with a fake word and a mistrust, for 409 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,880 example, and we ended up in 4 scenarios. 410 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,800 So it's a very iterative process, this really strong 411 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,040 process of research, but also a lot of interviewing, refinement 412 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:10,320 and quality criterion is that in the end, your scenario as you 413 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,760 describe, and each scenario might even take one A4 page, 414 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,320 right? So it's like a script where you 415 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,400 read into a story describing the future as if you were looking 416 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,920 back from this future. Yeah, this has to be very 417 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,000 consistent and plausible, right? Because if there's something not 418 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:32,000 consistent then you you spot this and it doesn't make sense. 419 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:36,600 And you've now touched upon like trust and mistrust scenarios. 420 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,160 And I'm always wondering what happens to trust leadership and 421 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,960 particularly also democracy, because I think democratic 422 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,720 values need to be guarded and also enabled through technology. 423 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:53,440 However, technology accelerates the creation of parallel truths 424 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,560 and also of the opportunity that they don't converge anymore. 425 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,320 How do you see that? And was that part of your 426 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,960 navigation of those future like predictions, derivations, future 427 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,800 outlooks? Yeah, it's as we discussed 428 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,800 before, the technology itself isn't good or bad. 429 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:15,880 It is rather an amplifier, an amplifier of of the situations 430 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,640 and we are experiencing. So I think we we are living in a 431 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:24,920 very powerful time where we can enable a lot of good things with 432 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,640 digital technologies. So this sharpens collective 433 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,880 understanding, can strengthen the participation, inclusion of 434 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,480 people and we can build on new trust architectures, right. 435 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:42,560 On the other side, it might also be a challenge right, to 436 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,680 maintain trust in such situations. 437 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:50,080 If misinformation is spreading at an unprecedented pace, these 438 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,320 are quite hard times. And it has two components, 439 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,440 right? Always see the historical 440 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,640 analogy from viruses and virus scanners. 441 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,200 And it's a race. It was a race already 10 years 442 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:06,120 and 15 years ago with technology and we experience now this now 443 00:27:06,120 --> 00:27:07,840 with fakes and deepfakes. Yeah. 444 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,320 So there's a lot Everyday there are new applications, new apps, 445 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:16,600 technology being in place to spot deepfakes and fraud and to 446 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,640 avoid this and to protect you, right. 447 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:23,040 So take for good against tech which is used in a in a negative 448 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,760 way. This is the one situation using 449 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:30,280 tech yeah, to to counterfeit. On the other side, it's the 450 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,360 human aspect. So there has to be an 451 00:27:32,360 --> 00:27:35,240 immunisation of us as human beings as well. 452 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,920 We have to think, we have to critically reflect. 453 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,680 We don't have must not be very naive in applications and things 454 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,440 we do right. And this cognitive immunisation 455 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,200 is critical thinking. It's really important in ongoing 456 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:55,320 technological times. So it's, it's in any, any of the 457 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:59,280 studies and reports coming out on skills, on future skills. 458 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,120 This is usually one of the top three right critical thinking. 459 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:07,040 And the interesting part is, and we also talked about that in our 460 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:13,200 pre conversation that we tend to negatify futures or we also tend 461 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,960 to look into the way of how those scenarios could be the 462 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:22,520 absolute like hard cut, also like negative impact. 463 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,520 And if you now talk about the way that we frame it, if you 464 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,480 talk about positive outlooks, why is it so hard for us to 465 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,560 infiltrate that into the movement and also see the 466 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:38,320 opportunities and the change and we'll also modify futures in 467 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,040 that regard? Yeah. 468 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,120 So first of all, it's, it depends on the context and the 469 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,360 situation we we are in. If you are. 470 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,760 Actually, I was just, you know, overstating. 471 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,200 Yeah, yeah. If you're in crisis times, then 472 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,160 this also effects you that you think more negatively. 473 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,720 Yeah. And some psychologists even say 474 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,080 the way you are looking into the future in general is a really a 475 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,280 personal subjective thing. And it's like a personality 476 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:04,120 trait. Yeah. 477 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,280 So you are tend to be a visionary person, being more an 478 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:11,360 optimist or others seem to more be more sceptical. 479 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,080 And then there are certain types who want to shape and to do 480 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,680 something now, right. So this is can be like a 481 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,240 personality thing, a personality trait. 482 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,920 There is been foresight science, there's a research strand and 483 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,920 it's called science fiction prototyping. 484 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,880 And some tech firms, they have even institutionalized this as a 485 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,480 tool, as a technique, right? So they use artifacts from 486 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:39,120 novels and from science fiction movies and literature and use 487 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,360 this as a very strong trigger to innovate and to foster tech, 488 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,280 tech innovation. So we've seen from Star Trek the 489 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,480 communicator. Yeah, with a strong image and 490 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,840 analogy to to the smartphone. We have seen the replicator, 491 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,720 which you can see in 3DS printing today. 492 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,960 The jetpack from NASA used to be on a comic cover. 493 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,240 Night Rider with David Hesselhoff. 494 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,000 Yeah, it's autonomous driving and conversational AI 495 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,920 communication. There are many of those examples 496 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,760 we tend to over estimate. Yeah. 497 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:15,400 So this might be a bias. If we, if we look at technology, 498 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,680 we many cases think this is going to happen the next two 499 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,440 years. But we see lobbyism against it. 500 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,000 And in many, many cases, if something becomes then a mass 501 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:26,760 technology, it takes time, right? 502 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:31,040 Sometimes more time than we at first, Lance, think it takes, 503 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,360 right. And Terminator and all those 504 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,880 science fiction movies. Yeah, we have those images in 505 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:40,720 our head and we tend then to project those futures as well. 506 00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,440 This is why. And I know we come now to the 507 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,200 end of our episode, but I do have like 1 pressing question 508 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,200 that I definitely want to ask. And it's about the four 509 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,480 scenarios that you stretched and the mechanism that you just also 510 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,720 provided to us. Because I think it's so valuable 511 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:01,960 to see if you use that like mechanism or also the tool in 512 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,080 future thinking yourself. And was that part of like, 513 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,760 deriving the four scenarios of Age of Enlightenment, Infinite 514 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,480 History, Truth Machine, and the end of the story yourselves, or 515 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,760 how did you approach it? Well, as I said, you always 516 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,840 start with two key uncertainties about the future. 517 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,280 Then you define the extreme outcomes that they might have in 518 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,600 the future. You think black or white. 519 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:31,040 And then you combine those extreme outcomes into plausible 520 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,680 and consistent scenarios. And as you said, one of the 521 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:35,680 scenarios was the Age of Enlightenment. 522 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,280 Why? Because then we combine the one 523 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,640 truth, there's only one truth, together with trust in 524 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,880 technology. And just imagine we we have 525 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,280 device ecosystems on us, on our body. 526 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:52,600 Yeah, the smart watch, we might have a necklace with sensors and 527 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,120 a live stream at with the sense of word models and physical AI 528 00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,440 into the machine. And then somehow an AI 529 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:04,000 governance has the potential right to take all those snippets 530 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,680 and pieces from the billions of people and combine this into the 531 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,360 one single truth. You see the same situation from 532 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,120 multiple angles. So this is the one scenario. 533 00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,000 Then another one is infinite history. 534 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,320 It doesn't matter for for us. So maybe young people. 535 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,800 Then whether this is is a fake reality or whether this is the 536 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,400 true reality, we could see metaverse words emerging, 537 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,160 exploding. Billions of new words are being 538 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,480 created. Well, this is it fulfills our 539 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:35,560 desires in those virtual worlds, we can imagine and and see what 540 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,560 we what we like to experience. And then there might be the 541 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,400 third scenario word which describes something different. 542 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,960 There is a very absolute control of government or media 543 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,280 monopolies. So you have the one single 544 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,560 truth. And this comes from this such a 545 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,840 monopoly, right? And it's about an influencing 546 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,920 principle. So it's a very uniform world 547 00:32:55,920 --> 00:33:00,080 where you have a mistrust in technology, but it's shaped by a 548 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,720 very strong monopoly, only one reality for all. 549 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,840 And the society in such a scenario is missed as a strong 550 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,080 mistrust, but it's also uniformly united, right? 551 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,200 And then there is a very crazy chaotic one. 552 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:14,920 This is the last scenario, right? 553 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:19,480 It's the end of the story actually, where you have an all 554 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,640 fake word. And this might be due to AI 555 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:23,800 spamming the word. Yeah. 556 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:28,000 Just imagine out of an AI, out of control, spamming all the 557 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,000 communication channels. And we have a strong mistrust. 558 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,280 And in such a situation, we cannot trust some information or 559 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:39,160 any information anymore. And it becomes that this is for 560 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,280 us, maybe then for us as humans, a new normal. 561 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,040 Yeah. So we are looking for protective 562 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:49,760 zones in such a scenario where we have off time and where we do 563 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,880 not use technology as extensive anymore. 564 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,680 So four different scenarios and the core question is always what 565 00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,880 if? Yeah, the truth is probably 566 00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:03,680 somehow in between. But scenario thinking helps you 567 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,800 to think out-of-the-box, right? And always to discuss things you 568 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:11,480 would normally not discuss. And that's also the purpose of 569 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,639 the fake future scenarios. Yeah, to extend our thinking, to 570 00:34:14,639 --> 00:34:18,480 shape a debate and to get into a strategic conversation, as I 571 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,679 just said in the beginning of our talk. 572 00:34:21,159 --> 00:34:23,960 I appreciate that so much and I would love to have you over and 573 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,360 like due time to also see if where we're headed and if we can 574 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,520 already derive off like some of the in betweens of all of those 575 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,320 scenarios. But for now, thank you so much 576 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,280 for sharing that. And lastly, and I do that with 577 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,480 every of my guests, we briefly have some in between moments. 578 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,280 These are short and intuitive reflections that I would love 579 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,120 for you to just answer in a word or a sentence from the top of 580 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,719 your mind. And I would want to start with a 581 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,360 statement. According to you, a future we 582 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,440 underestimate is. Set the power of AI to push. 583 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,600 Science and a risk that we misread. 584 00:34:58,720 --> 00:35:02,920 Also linked to the scenarios that we are stumbling silently 585 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:09,240 into an autocracy so that the way that we might be manipulated 586 00:35:09,240 --> 00:35:12,440 by agents and AI to live in a better way. 587 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,880 I need to do just a whole episode on that word, but thank 588 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,720 you for bringing that to the table. 589 00:35:18,720 --> 00:35:23,360 And then thirdly, trust in 2023 fields like what according to 590 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,200 you? Renewable resource. 591 00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:29,640 Very powerful, but it requires a constant cultivation. 592 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,840 And a word that you currently are in between. 593 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,920 Oh. Yeah, I'm talking a lot about 594 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,400 digital aura. In the future, if you have the 595 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:41,920 devices connected on your body, smart clothes, your smart watch, 596 00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:45,480 your smart glasses, etcetera, then you have somehow a digital 597 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,960 aura. And if you connect to others, 598 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,440 then the agents behind are connecting and doing things. 599 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,360 Yeah. So this is this is something I'm 600 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,440 really into at the moment. Such great jump of pints. 601 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,440 Thank you so much for sharing those with you with us Haiku. 602 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,960 And thank you for joining the podcast episode. 603 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,320 I really appreciate it. Yeah. 604 00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:09,040 Thank you very much. If much fun, much appreciate.