1 00:00:08,700 --> 00:00:11,300 Welcome to the Wednesday podcast your host today is mr. 2 00:00:11,300 --> 00:00:15,500 Assad Raza when CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association 3 00:00:15,500 --> 00:00:18,800 and brings in people who are current or former military 4 00:00:18,900 --> 00:00:22,300 diplomats development officers and field agents to discuss 5 00:00:22,300 --> 00:00:25,100 their experiences on ground with a partner Nations. 6 00:00:25,100 --> 00:00:28,800 People and Leadership our goal is to inspire anyone interested 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,700 in working the last Three feet of Foreign Relations, contact 8 00:00:32,700 --> 00:00:37,000 the show, email us at see a podcasting at gmail.com, or look 9 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,000 us up on the Civil Affairs, association website at 10 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,000 www.flcfs.org. I'll have those in the show 11 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,000 notes. Hello, and welcome to the one. 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,300 See a podcast is a production of the Civil Affairs Association. 13 00:00:50,500 --> 00:00:53,100 I'm your host, Assad Raza. Our guests today are two 14 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:55,800 emerging Scholars and practitioners within the Special 15 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:57,500 Operations civil Affairs Community. 16 00:00:57,700 --> 00:01:00,200 There are going to share some of their findings under near turn. 17 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,700 Geopolitical consequence of climates in security major, Alex 18 00:01:03,700 --> 00:01:06,700 Kenna and major mad Alexander and welcome to the one. 19 00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:09,000 See a podcast. Thanks yeah thanks for having us 20 00:01:09,700 --> 00:01:11,300 Matt. And I have been working on this 21 00:01:11,300 --> 00:01:15,100 for the past 18 months as you kind of seen our bios. 22 00:01:15,100 --> 00:01:17,800 We were Gather actually quite bit replacing each other and 23 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,300 both Columbia and Trinidad. We both worked in the 98th. 24 00:01:20,300 --> 00:01:23,500 Civil Affairs. Battalion southcom oriented 25 00:01:23,500 --> 00:01:26,200 civil Affairs, Battalion. So, when we both got accepted 26 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,300 the Naval Postgraduate School. We decided to work together, 27 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,200 Matt and I both had kind of the same kind of mindset as we 28 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,200 wanted to give back to the branch. 29 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,100 And then also understanding that uses stock footed the bill for 30 00:01:37,100 --> 00:01:39,600 us to attend. So we definitely want to give 31 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,400 something back to our career field. 32 00:01:41,700 --> 00:01:43,900 Thank you. And how did you decide on the 33 00:01:43,900 --> 00:01:47,200 climate and security A lot of the communities and populations 34 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,700 actually live along the coast Inlet orals. 35 00:01:49,700 --> 00:01:54,000 We don't really have any doctor and or best practices yet of 36 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,700 working with communities along the coast and those impacts on 37 00:01:57,700 --> 00:02:00,300 how to conduct some reconnaissance engagements 38 00:02:00,300 --> 00:02:03,100 little Knowledge Management. So that's what we originally 39 00:02:03,100 --> 00:02:06,800 started as we were diving into it and learning two-thirds of 40 00:02:06,808 --> 00:02:09,699 the world's population lives within 100 miles of the coast. 41 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,100 I came across a bit talking about what's known as the 42 00:02:13,100 --> 00:02:15,400 weights Glacier or within the climate. 43 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,600 This world known as the Doomsday Glacier. 44 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,900 It's about the size of Florida, and it's actually it's down in 45 00:02:21,900 --> 00:02:26,200 Antarctica and its melting faster than any other Glacier or 46 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,600 most of the other glaciers. And it's a, it's a positive 47 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,200 feedback loop of warm water impact, and Glacier underneath 48 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,000 causing more water to melt. And so it means more water. 49 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,300 So it's melting at a fast rate and climate scientists are 50 00:02:39,308 --> 00:02:41,900 predicting that, once it collapses will have this 51 00:02:41,900 --> 00:02:45,100 cascading effect of rising the sea levels, potentially several 52 00:02:45,500 --> 00:02:48,000 Hers, Matt and I are talking about this dinner, like, well, 53 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,000 that's going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people say 54 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,200 well for the First World countries, you know, we can find 55 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,100 a way to adapt and survive, just fine, you know, high-capacity 56 00:02:56,100 --> 00:02:58,300 government, you know, I threshold population. 57 00:02:58,300 --> 00:02:59,000 Alright. That's alright. 58 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,500 It's like, but what about these other locations that are? 59 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:04,700 They're not as well off as as some other First World countries 60 00:03:04,700 --> 00:03:07,700 like like, man they could, I could really use some help are 61 00:03:07,700 --> 00:03:12,300 also quite vulnerable to other actors with Moline and a farias 62 00:03:12,300 --> 00:03:14,700 and intent. So we asked ourselves, is anyone 63 00:03:14,700 --> 00:03:18,300 looking into this Specifically in a DOD side only, as of 64 00:03:18,300 --> 00:03:21,600 recently has changes in climate warming. 65 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,500 Planet becoming more to the Forefront on what it means for 66 00:03:25,500 --> 00:03:28,400 the United States. So we started looking into the 67 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,300 near-term, geopolitical consequences of climate change 68 00:03:32,300 --> 00:03:34,400 and climate and security coming onto this. 69 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,200 And that's how we kind of came up with the question. 70 00:03:36,300 --> 00:03:39,500 So, when you first started working on your research, you 71 00:03:39,500 --> 00:03:41,600 really saw a gap in the literature, some of the time 72 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,900 insecurities, I like how you focused on the Doomsday, the 73 00:03:44,900 --> 00:03:46,500 Doomsday. Glacier Thwaites. 74 00:03:46,500 --> 00:03:48,800 Yeah, the Thwaites. Glacier down in Antarctica. 75 00:03:49,300 --> 00:03:51,600 When I first got out to the Naval Postgraduate School, we 76 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,900 also found out that our old Battalion Commander Colonel 77 00:03:54,900 --> 00:03:58,200 James kyiv. It was currently the commandant 78 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,600 of Defense, Language Institute right down the street. 79 00:04:00,700 --> 00:04:02,900 So we talked with them early and often and we're getting some 80 00:04:02,900 --> 00:04:06,200 advice and counsel from him. And he suggested that, what 81 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:10,300 makes a good thesis is something that's important, but no one's 82 00:04:10,300 --> 00:04:12,900 talking about it. And within our initial research, 83 00:04:12,900 --> 00:04:15,300 this was not a topic that was really being talked about. 84 00:04:15,700 --> 00:04:18,899 Get advice from Colonel, keep it as absolutely major Malik 85 00:04:18,899 --> 00:04:20,300 Xander. Can you summarize? 86 00:04:20,300 --> 00:04:23,900 How you guys work on it? The two things we looked at when 87 00:04:23,900 --> 00:04:27,000 we were going through the research, one was finally, when 88 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:31,000 the NSS and National Security strategy, dropped in 2022, we 89 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,500 identified their two things and really, they talked a lot about 90 00:04:34,500 --> 00:04:38,600 adversarial competition, as well as the instability that's caused 91 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:40,900 by climate change. As, you know, from the 92 00:04:40,900 --> 00:04:43,000 intergovernmental panel on climate change. 93 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,500 They talk about how the world's warming any increase in 94 00:04:46,500 --> 00:04:49,600 intensity and frequency of natural disasters and extreme 95 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,200 weather events. And then additionally, the 96 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,500 amount of people that are actually in vulnerable areas to 97 00:04:54,508 --> 00:04:57,200 climate change and has Alex talked about earlier, those in 98 00:04:57,300 --> 00:04:59,200 highly vulnerable countries as well. 99 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,000 So more underdeveloped countries. 100 00:05:01,300 --> 00:05:03,600 Well, that was one of the biggest gaps that we saw was 101 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,800 that they talk about both but they never talk about both 102 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,000 pieces together. So, how we looked at it was, if 103 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,300 you have climate change, it's going to result in natural 104 00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:17,300 hazards, which ultimately affect Man systems and they create 105 00:05:17,300 --> 00:05:20,500 drivers of insecurity within those population centers. 106 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,100 So how we go about affecting those things? 107 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,700 It also creates an opportunity for adversarial competition 108 00:05:27,900 --> 00:05:32,100 whether it's the PRC or Russia can exploit or use the 109 00:05:32,100 --> 00:05:34,800 opportunities that climate change our climate and security 110 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,800 causes for their own Ambitions, as well as their own Regional 111 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:43,900 influence in those areas. I don't talk about more of the 112 00:05:43,900 --> 00:05:48,000 model we used to illustrate and explain to the problem sets that 113 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:49,900 we end up choosing. And then they actual problem 114 00:05:49,900 --> 00:05:52,500 sets for case studies that we pick. 115 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,600 The first thing we decided is how is competition occurring and 116 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:58,800 that these different levels. And man, I kind of saw, there 117 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,200 was nothing really on there that addresses both non-state actors 118 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,600 and state actors to include violent, extremist 119 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,300 organizations, transnational, criminal organizations, within 120 00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:10,000 that, within those nsa's. So we kind of came up with a 121 00:06:10,008 --> 00:06:13,100 term On here called governance competition. 122 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,100 Or when I third-party actor, challenges the legitimacy, the 123 00:06:17,100 --> 00:06:21,600 authority and influence of me of an existing governing body over, 124 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:26,300 a population by undermining circumventing or substituting 125 00:06:26,300 --> 00:06:29,100 governing efforts. When we talk about governance or 126 00:06:29,100 --> 00:06:33,400 talking about a person or small group of people that has that 127 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,400 greater influence of legitimacy over a larger group of people, 128 00:06:36,500 --> 00:06:39,000 this can be anything from a youth, soccer league up to the 129 00:06:39,008 --> 00:06:42,100 United Nations. So with that understanding on 130 00:06:42,100 --> 00:06:44,700 their we went ahead and developed a model to help lay 131 00:06:44,700 --> 00:06:46,500 out each of our case. Studies that I'll talk about in 132 00:06:46,500 --> 00:06:48,200 a moment. I call this the governance 133 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:52,300 competition model within that the Challenger will always have 134 00:06:52,300 --> 00:06:55,700 a greater strategic objectives that are trying to accomplish to 135 00:06:55,700 --> 00:06:58,900 include anything that could be political military or economic 136 00:06:58,900 --> 00:07:02,700 to name a few. And that may be more covert and 137 00:07:02,700 --> 00:07:06,900 less obvious to the existing governance may be look more like 138 00:07:06,900 --> 00:07:09,300 a relationship as cooperation rather than complete 139 00:07:09,300 --> 00:07:10,300 replacement. Open it. 140 00:07:10,500 --> 00:07:13,200 Of a government. So there are intermediate, 141 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,000 objectives can come online to see what's more actually out in 142 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,500 the open and what's going on. It may be undermining the 143 00:07:18,500 --> 00:07:22,300 government and maybe forms of economic statecraft showing his 144 00:07:22,300 --> 00:07:26,600 cooperation with that other governing body to name a few but 145 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,400 still it underlying strategic objective. 146 00:07:28,900 --> 00:07:32,700 So within that the Challenger needs to identify targeted 147 00:07:32,700 --> 00:07:35,700 groups on their through such as like, how a psychological 148 00:07:35,700 --> 00:07:38,900 operations, desert target audience analysis on Whose best 149 00:07:38,900 --> 00:07:42,000 tool uses leverage to A, those intermediate objectives. 150 00:07:42,300 --> 00:07:46,000 So it could be disenfranchised group, it could be a certain 151 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,100 political party just to name a few. 152 00:07:48,900 --> 00:07:51,600 So, within on that, once they targeted, group is identified, 153 00:07:51,700 --> 00:07:54,000 comes those methods of influence, though, best use 154 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,800 within the circumstances of those environment to best 155 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,100 leverage. Those Target groups to meet 156 00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:00,500 those objectives. They can be anything within this 157 00:08:00,500 --> 00:08:02,100 below. Threshold armed conflict to 158 00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:07,300 include violence formation operations, economic statecraft, 159 00:08:07,300 --> 00:08:09,100 anything to do with cyber as well. 160 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,600 These are just a few to name They could be used to leverage 161 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:13,800 those groups. And so what comes down to this, 162 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,600 once a challenge identifies, all of these, they have to identify 163 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,600 the perfect window of opportunity on here or what man 164 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,900 I reference in our paper as the Nexus event, that allows them to 165 00:08:25,100 --> 00:08:26,700 employ their methods of influence. 166 00:08:26,700 --> 00:08:29,000 On those targeted groups to meet their objectives and 167 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,700 specifically for this paper, we use those climate and security 168 00:08:32,700 --> 00:08:36,500 factors and events that occur as those Nexus events on there. 169 00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:41,100 So next we've developed this model, we identify the Problem. 170 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,000 Now we got to see, is this actually occurring in the world 171 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,000 and we decided to take a couple of different steps, a couple of 172 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,200 different cocoms because our target audience on here. 173 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,800 We want to pitch this towards is at the Strategic level to 174 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:59,100 include the gcc's and we wanted to hit a specific kind of 175 00:08:59,100 --> 00:09:02,400 timeline something hit in the near historical realm of things 176 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:03,900 that's fresh on, everyone's mind. 177 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,600 Also something that's currently happening in developing and then 178 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,100 something in the near term future. 179 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:09,900 Yes. Syrian Civil War. 180 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:14,700 Central America, specifically, Guatemala Honduras, El Salvador, 181 00:09:14,700 --> 00:09:18,700 and Nicaragua, and then also the Pacific island chains. 182 00:09:19,300 --> 00:09:23,400 So, for this next portion, we're going to start talking about 183 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,600 each of those case, studies briefly and Matt's, gonna go 184 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,300 ahead and talk about the Syrian Civil War. 185 00:09:29,700 --> 00:09:33,300 Thank you. So with Syria, just to start in, 186 00:09:33,300 --> 00:09:37,800 2006 to 2011, there was an extreme drought there and maybe 187 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,700 that was the spark or what really A lot of turmoil and 188 00:09:41,700 --> 00:09:44,100 uplifted people from their normal life styles. 189 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,900 However, there's so many different factors that you could 190 00:09:46,900 --> 00:09:49,900 talk about it was this or was that, but it's one thing. 191 00:09:49,900 --> 00:09:53,400 If it's not to go in notice that this drought really created a 192 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,300 huge movement of people and displaced people from the 193 00:09:56,300 --> 00:10:00,600 northeastern areas, which was also an area where Isis was 194 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:04,400 heavily invested in recruiting. So a lot of the farmers, a lot 195 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,000 of people in those areas but extremely vulnerable. 196 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,800 However, as they came South, it built up on Urban periphery 197 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,800 which was also exacerbated by populations, moving over from 198 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:19,000 Iraq due to the ongoing War. So you had a couple different 199 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,700 factors playing there but the drought was one of the most 200 00:10:21,700 --> 00:10:24,900 extreme droughts and I think it was over a century in the region 201 00:10:24,900 --> 00:10:27,200 so it shouldn't go overlooked which is what led to a lot of 202 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,300 those Grievances and ultimately led to some of the the issues 203 00:10:30,300 --> 00:10:32,700 that occurred within the country. 204 00:10:32,700 --> 00:10:35,900 And then that played out into the role, which we have today 205 00:10:35,900 --> 00:10:39,300 which is you have multiple different external State. 206 00:10:39,300 --> 00:10:42,100 Actors that are in As well as non-state actors that have 207 00:10:42,100 --> 00:10:45,800 created this Quagmire that we don't see any really end in 208 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,800 sight, and it's still ongoing today. 209 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,900 But with that, that's pretty much like the Syrian case in a 210 00:10:50,908 --> 00:10:52,800 nutshell. And I handed over to Alex to 211 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,600 talk about this Central America peace within Central America, 212 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,200 its kind of with in between a rock and a hard place when 213 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,300 considering the issues of climate and security over on the 214 00:11:02,300 --> 00:11:05,200 Pacific side, it's known as the dry Corridor. 215 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,000 For the last couple of decades, it's been getting severe. 216 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,800 Drought has been occurring off the Pacific side in the most 217 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,600 increasing every year to the point where the Rainy seasons 218 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,500 are projected from being twice, a year to only once a year for 219 00:11:16,500 --> 00:11:19,800 the region and for an area that's predominantly based on 220 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,300 agriculture. In our am an existing issues 221 00:11:22,300 --> 00:11:28,200 with non-state actors such as the MS-13 and body. 018 devotee 222 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,700 had opportunities of like low capacity government, low 223 00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:33,400 threshold population. Now, compile this on top with 224 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:37,900 getting hit, on the other side, on the eastern coast, with the 225 00:11:37,900 --> 00:11:40,300 warming, oceans of what the Atlantic and the Caribbean. 226 00:11:40,700 --> 00:11:44,800 And the increased strength and frequency of tropical storms and 227 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,600 hurricanes with a warming oceans. 228 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,400 It's almost like jet fuel to a hurricane and provides them get 229 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,100 more strength as we all remember her in 2020. 230 00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:57,200 And with the Hurricanes Iota and at a both back-to-back impacting 231 00:11:57,300 --> 00:12:00,900 the coastal side of Honduras and Nicaragua. 232 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,000 So there's already been a historical issue of immigration 233 00:12:05,100 --> 00:12:08,300 out of those regions and heading up towards our Southern borders, 234 00:12:08,700 --> 00:12:10,300 issues have been dealing with for several. 235 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,900 Ministrations. And with the issues of MS-13 and 236 00:12:13,900 --> 00:12:16,300 body weight, teen or Eddie, having governance competitions 237 00:12:16,300 --> 00:12:21,500 on those areas and the cycle of immigration deportation and both 238 00:12:21,500 --> 00:12:24,800 of those transnational, criminal organizations being of origin of 239 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,400 the United States. They've only been growing in 240 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,100 strength in the region in the last several years. 241 00:12:30,300 --> 00:12:32,200 So with them and governance competition, they've been 242 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,700 focusing on with their goals of continuing, the freedom of 243 00:12:34,700 --> 00:12:38,700 financing and operations, and don't necessarily want to take 244 00:12:38,700 --> 00:12:41,900 over the government. So, With all these issues on top 245 00:12:41,900 --> 00:12:45,500 of each other, this leaves perfect opportunity for external 246 00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:48,500 State actors, which they have been coming into the region and 247 00:12:48,500 --> 00:12:51,900 providing what may seem as assistance to those governments 248 00:12:51,900 --> 00:12:54,800 that are at low capacity and the thresholds of those populations 249 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,300 are quite low. Our course, for their own malign 250 00:12:57,300 --> 00:12:59,400 reasons. As we've seen, China has been 251 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,100 practicing economic statecraft for over the past. 20 years with 252 00:13:03,100 --> 00:13:04,100 in Latin. America. 253 00:13:04,100 --> 00:13:07,100 Southcom AO are starting off. Originally with only probably 254 00:13:07,100 --> 00:13:10,200 about one country and about 2000, 2001 it. 255 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,800 It's now just over 21. Maybe 22 countries as we 256 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,500 recently, seen in the news, the last five years, Honduras, 257 00:13:17,900 --> 00:13:20,300 Nicaragua, and El Salvador have already announced the 258 00:13:20,300 --> 00:13:25,000 recognition of Taiwan. So, as we can see here, based on 259 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,300 the economic statecraft, with state-owned Enterprises and 260 00:13:28,300 --> 00:13:32,200 applying its economic aid packages to these countries in 261 00:13:32,208 --> 00:13:35,500 the region, they're gaining more political power within a global 262 00:13:35,500 --> 00:13:39,100 sphere, are also gaining political military, and economic 263 00:13:39,100 --> 00:13:42,300 placement throughout the Western hemisphere in our own backyard 264 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:44,900 for Russia. They've been gaining also 265 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,300 influence through military sales and training specifically in 266 00:13:48,300 --> 00:13:51,100 Nicaragua with the authoritarian. 267 00:13:51,100 --> 00:13:55,500 President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, receiving a military 268 00:13:55,500 --> 00:13:57,900 equipment and training from Russia. 269 00:13:57,900 --> 00:14:01,200 So Russia, at the very least, now has influence within our 270 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,100 region and access and placement, and Venezuela Cuba, and in 271 00:14:05,100 --> 00:14:07,600 Nicaragua. So, emerging challenges happen 272 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:09,900 in those regions. Want to go ahead and hand it 273 00:14:09,900 --> 00:14:11,400 back. Over to Matt and he's going to 274 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,200 talk about the emerging challenges in the Pacific. 275 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,900 So the last case study we had was the Pacific island countries 276 00:14:18,900 --> 00:14:21,500 and what really sparked it, honestly there's so many 277 00:14:21,500 --> 00:14:24,000 different places in Asia, we wanted to do something, was in 278 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,800 dope, a calm focused and there's so many different locations that 279 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:30,000 you could select from one place, actually sparked. 280 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,400 It was when the Solomon Islands had the bilateral security 281 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:37,800 agreement with the PRC back during April 20 22 so that's 282 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,800 shifted our Focus. You know, what's going on here 283 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,000 in the Island countries. Their number one threat is in a 284 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,700 specific country, a non-state actor, a state actor, it is 285 00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:49,700 actually climate change. Most of these countries are very 286 00:14:49,700 --> 00:14:53,600 concerned with what's going on with rising sea levels. 287 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,800 As well as the potential for an increase in natural disasters 288 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,000 and typhoons they're concerned, what climate change could bring. 289 00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:03,800 And as the world warms that's one of their biggest Focus 290 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:05,700 areas. So they've created by Pacific 291 00:15:05,700 --> 00:15:09,300 island Forum focused on those security challenges. 292 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,100 And An example of this and how we can see where a third-party 293 00:15:13,100 --> 00:15:16,700 actor, as in the PRC is trying to exploit this for their own 294 00:15:16,700 --> 00:15:19,900 opportunities, and gains is they're using, for example, the 295 00:15:19,900 --> 00:15:22,900 global development initiative, which is sort of a very vague 296 00:15:22,900 --> 00:15:26,900 term that came about in 2021 with that, they've created a 297 00:15:26,900 --> 00:15:30,100 China Pacific island countries, climate action, cooperation 298 00:15:30,100 --> 00:15:32,900 Center. That's in, I believe Shanghai or 299 00:15:32,900 --> 00:15:36,400 Beijing, but what they're doing there is bringing over Partners 300 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:40,200 from Pacific island countries to work with the PRC in China. 301 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,000 To mitigate some of these circumstances with climate 302 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,800 change. So it's giving them a foothold 303 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,900 in that second to third island chain. 304 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,600 That's extremely important as far as how things could 305 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,200 potentially play out as tensions. 306 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,300 Height between the US and China and giving this location. 307 00:15:56,300 --> 00:16:00,200 It represents a gateway to Asia and could play a pivotal role is 308 00:16:00,500 --> 00:16:04,000 any movement across the Pacific. That's what we looked at with 309 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,900 the Pacific island countries and how you have that competition or 310 00:16:07,900 --> 00:16:10,200 adversarial competition between what the prc's trying to. 311 00:16:10,300 --> 00:16:14,000 Due to exploit potential Partners also is Alex's talking 312 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,700 about some of the recognition, for Taiwan, the nation's that 313 00:16:16,700 --> 00:16:18,300 still do. And a lot of those are Latin 314 00:16:18,300 --> 00:16:21,300 America. The other half majority, are in 315 00:16:21,300 --> 00:16:24,700 these Pacific island countries is they try to shift Focus, 316 00:16:24,700 --> 00:16:28,500 which did just happen recently or things last year with Fiji. 317 00:16:28,700 --> 00:16:30,900 So, there is some concern with with knew how that could play 318 00:16:30,900 --> 00:16:33,100 out as they just try to chip away at those countries that 319 00:16:33,100 --> 00:16:35,900 still recognize Taiwan. So that's really all three of 320 00:16:35,900 --> 00:16:39,600 our case studies in a nutshell, Matt, and Alex a lot of 321 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,500 information there. I really appreciate it and I 322 00:16:41,508 --> 00:16:43,600 applaud you guys for doing your research. 323 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,600 I wanted to ask you where there any limitations on your studies. 324 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:52,000 First of all, Matt and I are not climate scientists by trade or 325 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,600 by training. I actually want to give a 326 00:16:54,608 --> 00:16:57,300 shout-out to our advisor Christian Fletcher at the Naval 327 00:16:57,300 --> 00:17:00,600 Postgraduate School, who is one of our two advisors who will use 328 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:04,500 more of an expert on climate and security and on energy security. 329 00:17:04,900 --> 00:17:07,599 She really was like that Guiding Light points the right direction 330 00:17:07,599 --> 00:17:10,099 to Publications and education on it so well. 331 00:17:10,300 --> 00:17:13,200 Overall just kind of looking at climate and security, through 332 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:18,400 the lens of DOD and understanding the political the 333 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:23,099 economic and the Civil domain as it is, it's anyone who's looked 334 00:17:23,099 --> 00:17:26,300 into. It's very wide deep and complex. 335 00:17:26,599 --> 00:17:29,800 So want to put out there is disclaimer, then we understand 336 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,100 that we could not cover every single variable, you know, 337 00:17:33,100 --> 00:17:35,200 especially with the time constraints that you have. 338 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,200 But I do like your approach towards it, not going into a 339 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,200 single case, study in Deep, dive into one. 340 00:17:40,300 --> 00:17:42,900 Actually identified three different case studies with 341 00:17:42,900 --> 00:17:45,800 three different types of threats, which I think opens a 342 00:17:45,808 --> 00:17:47,700 conversation for future research. 343 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,600 That continue going on within the climate and security 344 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,500 specifically looking through it. You'll deal ends. 345 00:17:52,500 --> 00:17:55,000 So thank you. So can you discuss a little bit 346 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,600 about your findings and what gaps you guys identified? 347 00:17:58,100 --> 00:17:59,800 Yeah. So like one of the biggest gaps 348 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,300 that we discovered was really just the fact that there's all 349 00:18:03,300 --> 00:18:06,000 this, the conversation that was mentioned sort of before is, you 350 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,300 know, between the national security strategy and then also 351 00:18:09,300 --> 00:18:13,000 the Adversarial competition, how we're talking about climate 352 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,100 change and climate instability and then we're talking about 353 00:18:16,100 --> 00:18:19,000 governance competition or adversarial competition. 354 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,100 But is there an interaction there? 355 00:18:21,100 --> 00:18:24,300 How do they interact and that sort of led us to the findings 356 00:18:24,300 --> 00:18:26,700 that we discovered from all the three case studies? 357 00:18:26,700 --> 00:18:29,500 Which were that essentially destructive climate events, they 358 00:18:29,500 --> 00:18:32,900 can serve as a threat multiplier that climbing and security 359 00:18:32,900 --> 00:18:36,100 increases the chance of governance competition or 360 00:18:36,100 --> 00:18:40,000 adversarial competition and also climbing and security provides. 361 00:18:40,300 --> 00:18:44,200 Opportunity for a state or a non-state actor that they can 362 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,200 exploit a certain situation or increase their own influence 363 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:51,000 into a certain situation. And then lastly, it's that it 364 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,900 creates a filled for the u.s. to advance our own influence. 365 00:18:54,900 --> 00:18:58,300 If he can additionally on their weave, through our own 366 00:18:58,300 --> 00:19:03,200 strategies and what Publications from DOD, there is a current Gap 367 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,000 in u.s. DOD strategy. 368 00:19:05,500 --> 00:19:09,300 The climate adaptation plan by DOD was published in 2021. 369 00:19:09,300 --> 00:19:12,500 And the course shortly, Afterwards, all of the service. 370 00:19:12,500 --> 00:19:16,400 Branches also publish their own climate strategy. 371 00:19:16,700 --> 00:19:19,300 Now, it all falls back to the higher, the US government, and 372 00:19:19,308 --> 00:19:21,700 their priorities. And a lot of it was focused on 373 00:19:21,700 --> 00:19:25,000 domestic issues and having a more resilient Force, to a 374 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:29,800 changing climate environment to include installations Naval 375 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,900 ports, and yards and airfields. Able to be more resilient within 376 00:19:33,900 --> 00:19:39,000 a changing climate environment, also for organizations and 377 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,800 operations too. Still occur in a more climate 378 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:46,900 challenging environment and also reduction in the dod's 379 00:19:46,900 --> 00:19:51,100 contribution into carbon emissions and greenhouse gases 380 00:19:51,100 --> 00:19:52,800 and such. So that's why you see a lot of 381 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,900 the Aegis service components talking about within their own 382 00:19:55,900 --> 00:20:00,500 fleets of vehicles, aircraft and ships on going more toward an 383 00:20:00,500 --> 00:20:05,000 electric side of propulsion. In a glass thing is that the 384 00:20:05,008 --> 00:20:07,300 lines of effort within the climate adaptation plan are 385 00:20:07,300 --> 00:20:10,100 looking towards greater response to humanitarian. 386 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,800 Assistance and disaster relief requirements outside of the 387 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,800 United States and recognize and it's going to be a greater issue 388 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,600 but it kind of just stops there and Matt and I totally agree. 389 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,600 Got to start with a strong Foundation. 390 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,200 Domestically first, before we reach out more towards 391 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,100 International Community with concerns, the climate and 392 00:20:28,100 --> 00:20:30,400 security. But we notice there is not 393 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:35,000 really any current efforts towards those who may become 394 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:39,200 vulnerable and who may fall prey to malign actors looking through 395 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,200 each of the service. Branches a Temptation plans. 396 00:20:42,300 --> 00:20:45,700 There's maybe about a sentence to have a paragraph within all 397 00:20:45,700 --> 00:20:49,400 the documents that address the opportunities created by climate 398 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,500 and security may be taken advantage of by malign actors 399 00:20:53,500 --> 00:20:57,000 and just kind of stops there. So that was the other gaps we 400 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,300 have noticed as well. Thank you good that you got the 401 00:21:00,308 --> 00:21:03,500 identified any kind of bring it out to the Forefront that there 402 00:21:03,500 --> 00:21:06,400 is a gap in the OD strategy, little bit more focus on 403 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:10,700 domestic issues resiliency. But as you mentioned the Threats 404 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,700 from climate insecurity. If the system's approach, so 405 00:21:13,700 --> 00:21:16,800 everything's connected. So I'm glad you guys did that. 406 00:21:17,100 --> 00:21:20,000 So what would you recommend if you had an opportunity to sit in 407 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,600 front of a co-commander and telling them, this is what we 408 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,300 recommend to be able to defeat this problem. 409 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,700 Again from our advisor, Colonel Chi, that kind of comes down to 410 00:21:30,700 --> 00:21:33,300 the feasibility and the appetite to execute. 411 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,100 The more things you kind of have already existing systems. 412 00:21:36,100 --> 00:21:40,700 Aligned the easier for us to be able to execute includes 413 00:21:40,700 --> 00:21:45,100 organizations lines of effort funding and execution on it, for 414 00:21:45,100 --> 00:21:48,000 the climate adaptation plan and it's a lines of efforts. 415 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,100 We don't want to change anything on there. 416 00:21:50,100 --> 00:21:53,600 We would like to add on to when the u.s. is ready to execute. 417 00:21:53,700 --> 00:21:57,900 So we came up with something. We were actually sitting in a 418 00:21:57,900 --> 00:22:04,000 cybersecurity strategy class for DOD and came across a 20-18 one 419 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,900 on a line of effort called defend forward. 420 00:22:06,900 --> 00:22:08,900 Just like one that seems appropriate and we just kind of 421 00:22:08,900 --> 00:22:11,200 tweaking with a few words. We kind of came up with our own 422 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,600 little statement for what defend forward within the climate 423 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,500 security realm would look like something like that. 424 00:22:16,500 --> 00:22:19,800 We will defend for to disrupt or halt, malicious governance 425 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,800 competition, or even zero competition at its source, 426 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,500 including activity that falls below the level of armed 427 00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:29,600 conflict We will strengthen the security governance and the 428 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,900 state resiliency to climate events that contribute to the 429 00:22:32,900 --> 00:22:35,500 current and future US military advantages. 430 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,400 We will collaborate with our interagency industry and 431 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,800 international Partners to advance our mutual interest. 432 00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:46,500 Now, we only replaced maybe like three or four words are added 433 00:22:46,500 --> 00:22:50,000 onto the current line of effort for the 2018 cybersecurity 434 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,400 strategy. So something's already concept, 435 00:22:52,500 --> 00:22:54,400 that's already plugged with cybersecurity strategy and I 436 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,900 also believe with usnorthcom also has Defend forward 437 00:22:57,900 --> 00:23:01,900 strategy. So it has to be a top level down 438 00:23:01,900 --> 00:23:04,800 kind of execution. Three key things we kind of like 439 00:23:04,900 --> 00:23:09,200 identified that have this happen and deployed appropriately and 440 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,300 you'd be able to identify where these issues are going to occur, 441 00:23:13,700 --> 00:23:17,800 have to forecast out and what issues can occur and and have 442 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:22,700 geopolitical ramifications and then what do we mobilize both in 443 00:23:22,700 --> 00:23:25,400 funding and actual Personnel on the ground to firm? 444 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,400 29 execute. To defend forward strategy. 445 00:23:28,700 --> 00:23:32,100 So, first kind of start on the top level to identify Matt and 446 00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:33,700 I, again, we don't want to reinvent the wheel. 447 00:23:33,700 --> 00:23:37,500 See if there's any kind of forecasting systems for climate 448 00:23:37,500 --> 00:23:40,400 and security and geopolitical issues, what we actually came 449 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:45,100 across a podcast from DARPA, talking about their a eyes to 450 00:23:45,100 --> 00:23:48,100 climate Tipping, Point model, and we reached out the DARPA 451 00:23:48,100 --> 00:23:51,600 back in February and talked about their program and how it 452 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,500 helps to forecast these climate and security issues that could 453 00:23:55,500 --> 00:23:59,100 occur several years down. Road to focus on it another 454 00:23:59,100 --> 00:24:02,300 program that working on called the world modelers program. 455 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,400 This is not only like an AI program else. 456 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,200 I was a tons of experts and technicians on there to kind of 457 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,200 overlap, the see these issues. But with these to overlap it can 458 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,100 kind of help predict any climate and security and governance / a 459 00:24:14,108 --> 00:24:17,500 visceral competition that could occur and we push this to them 460 00:24:17,500 --> 00:24:19,000 and they say yeah this is very reasonable. 461 00:24:19,300 --> 00:24:21,500 Well then we would have had a hand it off more in the u.s. 462 00:24:21,500 --> 00:24:25,100 policy realm of things go ahead and identifying what are the big 463 00:24:25,100 --> 00:24:28,200 priorities based on our own? Own National Security strategy 464 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,300 and our own policies moving forward as a nation and where we 465 00:24:31,300 --> 00:24:34,600 want to focus once the decisions are made that can be handed off 466 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,400 to the geographic. Combatant commands to go ahead 467 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,200 and start executing from there. It could be established as a 468 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,300 climate security, working group, or climate security cell, and 469 00:24:43,300 --> 00:24:45,900 start focusing on those areas specifically to kind of more 470 00:24:45,900 --> 00:24:48,900 focused narrowly down and get into the Aegis and then we can 471 00:24:48,900 --> 00:24:52,200 happen next from. There is the efforts after 472 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,500 delegated to Geographic, combatant commands, they could 473 00:24:55,500 --> 00:24:58,700 confirm, or deny these Threats are vulnerabilities down at the 474 00:24:58,700 --> 00:25:01,500 Tactical level as their areas of responsibility. 475 00:25:02,100 --> 00:25:06,100 For example, using some existing organizations, and persisting 476 00:25:06,100 --> 00:25:08,200 with persistent access and placement. 477 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,600 Well, we already have such an organization as our Special 478 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,500 Operation Forces, civil Affairs, who have this persistent 479 00:25:14,500 --> 00:25:18,200 engagements across the world, who are always working an overt 480 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:22,200 conditions and constantly being requested by US embassies and 481 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,800 partner Nation governments across the world. 482 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,300 Through these efforts, we can confirm or deny more of these 483 00:25:29,300 --> 00:25:33,300 political and social vulnerabilities in the area. 484 00:25:33,300 --> 00:25:35,500 And then we can take a hub-and-spoke approach with the 485 00:25:35,500 --> 00:25:39,800 Civil Affairs, teams, or civil Military Support elements, bring 486 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:43,300 in climate, scientists, civil engineers, and any other 487 00:25:43,300 --> 00:25:47,000 organizations within the realm to help solve these problems. 488 00:25:47,300 --> 00:25:50,600 Once, it's confirmed tonight and go ahead and execute with the 489 00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:53,100 appropriate actions and they to take place. 490 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:54,900 Next question comes on there. It's like, well, hi. 491 00:25:55,100 --> 00:25:57,800 Are you going to fund this? Well, there's already on that 492 00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,900 International approach with the build back better World 493 00:25:59,900 --> 00:26:02,800 initiative, which Target specifically on climate change 494 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,200 and climate and security issues and also the curtain behind 495 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,300 administration's prepared, action plan which also names 496 00:26:08,300 --> 00:26:10,900 climate and security issues and funding to go towards that. 497 00:26:11,100 --> 00:26:14,300 Also, just recently this past week, talking with a talking 498 00:26:14,300 --> 00:26:17,800 about more of the theater, Special Operations Command are 499 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,500 looking at having funding available towards climate change 500 00:26:21,500 --> 00:26:25,200 and climate and security issues and efforts going towards As 501 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,100 well. So with this whole line of 502 00:26:27,100 --> 00:26:30,000 effort and falling further into it When developing an actually 503 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,200 talking at DARPA, they actually mentioned that us africom has 504 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,700 been looking at climate and security has impacts on the 505 00:26:36,700 --> 00:26:38,100 continent. And actually, I don't whole 506 00:26:38,100 --> 00:26:42,100 Symposium on it. And actually, another civil 507 00:26:42,100 --> 00:26:45,100 Affairs officer, I believe in the reserves published the 508 00:26:45,100 --> 00:26:48,600 silver Association Journal site, talking about issues with in 509 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,600 Africa and in climate and security, and all for you that 510 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:52,700 link. That could be reference on 511 00:26:52,700 --> 00:26:54,700 there, too. So it's something that's being 512 00:26:54,700 --> 00:26:57,000 talked. About all the pieces are there. 513 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,100 They can all be aligned and executed and for that potential. 514 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,500 And one last thing I'll add on to the identify portion is we 515 00:27:04,500 --> 00:27:07,300 actually had a opportunity to see some cross-pollination 516 00:27:07,300 --> 00:27:09,700 between the Naval Postgraduate School in the Middlebury 517 00:27:09,700 --> 00:27:13,200 Institute over in Monterey and they came over a students and 518 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,500 talked with one of them and they talked about their capabilities 519 00:27:15,500 --> 00:27:19,300 and open source research, and they were actually able to 520 00:27:19,700 --> 00:27:23,200 forecast out 24 hours ahead of any other program on. 521 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,200 When North Korea was going to do a Rocket and missile launches. 522 00:27:27,500 --> 00:27:29,600 And I asked him is like, would you be able to use the same 523 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,000 thing and open source, research, to help forecast efforts of 524 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,300 external, SATA actors, such as Russia and China funding through 525 00:27:36,300 --> 00:27:40,200 either military sales or through state owned Enterprises economic 526 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:44,300 statecraft on regions of interest in such as I go and 527 00:27:44,300 --> 00:27:46,200 they smile back that I could be potentially. 528 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,100 So we could do so open source research, be another tool in the 529 00:27:50,100 --> 00:27:53,600 toolkit for the identify portion of a identify prioritize 530 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,500 mobilize You cracked in a lot in that answer there. 531 00:27:57,700 --> 00:28:00,700 I really like how you guys took the defend forward. 532 00:28:00,700 --> 00:28:03,300 I will, we modified it for climate and security. 533 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,500 That's great. Your recommendations from 534 00:28:05,500 --> 00:28:08,300 strategic level all the way down to Tactical levels to the T, 535 00:28:08,300 --> 00:28:12,600 stock levels, I appreciate that. You guys are already providing a 536 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,600 framework for people to kind of fall in and expand upon. 537 00:28:15,700 --> 00:28:17,700 It's not something they're starting from scratch now but if 538 00:28:17,700 --> 00:28:21,100 you got something to be able to work off of, so looking at this 539 00:28:21,100 --> 00:28:23,400 topic of climate and security, well there's some of the feature 540 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,200 challenges you see and trying to implement this I think one of 541 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,100 the things that we could see is just the fact that there is 542 00:28:30,100 --> 00:28:35,100 still a stigma that sort of revolves around climate change 543 00:28:35,100 --> 00:28:38,600 and its trying to find ways that as we come across it. 544 00:28:38,700 --> 00:28:41,300 Building that to where people have a better understanding of 545 00:28:41,300 --> 00:28:44,500 it and how it can play into geopolitical implications. 546 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,000 So I think ultimately, it's like, finding that way to where 547 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,400 you're looking at. This is, it's just another tool 548 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,100 to where we can help us understand underlying issues 549 00:28:53,100 --> 00:28:56,200 that lead to competition to crisis to Conflict across the 550 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,500 competition. Continuum and how we can work 551 00:28:58,500 --> 00:29:01,600 towards building Partnerships that allow us to compete against 552 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,400 our adversaries. So I think it's looking at it 553 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:09,100 from that standpoint. And I'll add on to there is the 554 00:29:10,300 --> 00:29:13,800 we briefed this a couple of times and we had to be quite 555 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,200 careful with our words at times, because the term climate change 556 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,600 is quite polarizing and sometimes it would stop a brief 557 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,900 right in its tracks. I do believe, if you were to 558 00:29:22,900 --> 00:29:26,800 control client there are 187 page document that within the 559 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,900 actual written portions of it climate change. 560 00:29:28,900 --> 00:29:31,800 I think it's mentioned probably no more than three times because 561 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,200 words do have meaning and history behind them. 562 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,600 Well, that's good to know and you're absolutely right, you 563 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,600 know, I think we've seen in the last couple of years, the term 564 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,600 climate change, really being polarizing and politicized, but 565 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,400 using the terms, like climate threats and really focusing on 566 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,700 the actual threat portion of this, I think is really 567 00:29:50,700 --> 00:29:52,700 important, and it's kind of educational too. 568 00:29:52,700 --> 00:29:54,600 And I'm my assumption that. It's something. 569 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,500 We also got to teach our partners in our partner Nations 570 00:29:57,500 --> 00:30:01,000 down range for them to kind of gain a pop better, appreciation 571 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,100 of the threats. So, talking about this and 572 00:30:04,100 --> 00:30:07,100 trying to learn and educate, eight people on climate threats 573 00:30:07,100 --> 00:30:09,900 or climate insecurities working people go learn more about your 574 00:30:09,900 --> 00:30:13,200 research. Yeah, so we have a couple of 575 00:30:13,208 --> 00:30:16,400 publications, of course, our thesis itself, all glorious 576 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,400 hundred eighty seven pages on it. 577 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,100 I'll provide some links available for when you publish 578 00:30:21,100 --> 00:30:24,100 the podcast on there. Directly from Naval Postgraduate 579 00:30:24,100 --> 00:30:25,700 School. It's open source available to 580 00:30:25,700 --> 00:30:27,600 everyone. If you like a more condensed 581 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,400 version we have on the small Wars Journal, we posed about 582 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,000 sixteen hundred words on there called the blind spot. 583 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,100 How a gap in climate security, strategy, Lisa opportunities for 584 00:30:37,100 --> 00:30:39,700 malign actors and strategic competition. 585 00:30:39,900 --> 00:30:43,900 We've also given a brief. Of our thesis back in November 586 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,700 to a panel on the challenges of climate security and governance, 587 00:30:47,700 --> 00:30:50,900 competition provide that link and last we also Lee 588 00:30:50,900 --> 00:30:55,000 constructed. A two page info paper on the 589 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:59,100 thesis as well to include heavily going into our line of 590 00:30:59,100 --> 00:31:03,100 effort of defend forward. Also within the realm of things 591 00:31:03,100 --> 00:31:06,300 a great place, if you want to learn more on, it is the center 592 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:11,100 for climate and security and its director and anything written by 593 00:31:11,100 --> 00:31:13,000 her. Dr. Aaron Sikorski. 594 00:31:13,300 --> 00:31:15,500 We actually got a lot of information from Rome had the 595 00:31:15,500 --> 00:31:18,800 opportunity to meet her at a symposium last month at Duke. 596 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,800 That was talking exactly about the same issues as we talked 597 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:26,500 about for our thesis and she has Publications in the war on the 598 00:31:26,500 --> 00:31:30,500 Rocks. She BBC Denton's of interviews 599 00:31:30,500 --> 00:31:32,700 and such and she's a great resource that sees things. 600 00:31:32,700 --> 00:31:36,200 Also, from the more, the dod lens, thanks Alex. 601 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,400 You know, I'll make sure that we post these links on the one, see 602 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,200 a podcast website for our listeners that and download it. 603 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:42,800 Right? So I think we're coming to the 604 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,200 end here. So in closing, are there any 605 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:46,900 other big takeaways for our listeners today? 606 00:31:47,700 --> 00:31:50,500 At our level, we're looking at those near term consequences and 607 00:31:50,500 --> 00:31:54,400 how, how best the u.s. can react in the emerging world of 608 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,600 strategic competition. But also not forgetting the 609 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,500 climate instability. I'm still dealing with issues 610 00:31:59,500 --> 00:32:02,100 with non-state actors. We're also not trying to solve 611 00:32:02,100 --> 00:32:04,900 climate change. There's plenty of efforts going 612 00:32:04,900 --> 00:32:08,100 on there, but there is that gap of what's happening in the 613 00:32:08,100 --> 00:32:10,800 meantime in the near future. Perfect, Matt. 614 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,200 Yeah, just To expand upon what Alex was saying is everyone here 615 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,700 is climate in security climate change in their taken 100 years 616 00:32:17,700 --> 00:32:20,300 from now, 50 years from now. But there are things that are 617 00:32:20,300 --> 00:32:23,500 happening in the near term and that's what we can really focus 618 00:32:23,500 --> 00:32:24,800 on. And that's how I think we can 619 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,600 make some kind of impact, as well as what will shape 620 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,300 geopolitically in areas that have more concern and priority 621 00:32:32,300 --> 00:32:34,500 for us. Awesome. 622 00:32:34,500 --> 00:32:36,700 I agree. Alex Matt. 623 00:32:36,700 --> 00:32:39,300 I want to thank you both for your time and your contribution 624 00:32:39,300 --> 00:32:41,300 to this ever evolving topic of future threat. 625 00:32:41,500 --> 00:32:44,900 It and so Affairs specifically during this time here so thanks 626 00:32:44,900 --> 00:32:46,600 again and I'll see you guys on the Drop Zone. 627 00:32:46,700 --> 00:32:48,200 Thank you so much. Thanks yeah thanks for having 628 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,600 us. Thanks for listening. 629 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,300 If you get a chance, please like And subscribe, and rate the show 630 00:32:54,300 --> 00:32:56,100 on your favorite podcast platform. 631 00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,400 Also, if you're interested in coming on the show, or hosting 632 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:03,600 an episode, email us at, see, a podcasting at gmail.com? 633 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,100 I'll have the email and see a association website in the show 634 00:33:07,100 --> 00:33:10,000 notes. And now most importantly to 635 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,500 those, currently out in the field, working with a partner 636 00:33:12,500 --> 00:33:15,800 Nations, people or leadership to forward us relations. 637 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:17,600 Thank you all for what you're doing. 638 00:33:18,300 --> 00:33:21,100 Stay tuned. For more great episodes. 1 c a 639 00:33:21,108 --> 00:33:21,100 podcast. For more great episodes. 1 c a 640 00:33:21,108 --> 00:33:22,000 podcast.