1 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,240 Welcome to the One CA podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines. 2 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,520 1C A is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings 3 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,840 in people who are current or former military diplomats, 4 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:24,240 development officers and field agents to talk about working the 5 00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:26,200 last three feet of Foreign Relations. 6 00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:29,570 Our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working on Ground 7 00:00:29,770 --> 00:00:33,050 with partner nations and their people to contact the show, 8 00:00:33,370 --> 00:00:37,290 e-mail us at c.a.podcasting@gmail.com or look 9 00:00:37,290 --> 00:00:40,730 us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at 10 00:00:40,930 --> 00:00:45,010 www.civilaffairsassos.org. I'll have both of those in the 11 00:00:45,010 --> 00:00:48,690 show notes. China has a longstanding 12 00:00:48,690 --> 00:00:52,770 tradition in where their ruling class is always held 13 00:00:53,290 --> 00:00:56,040 accountable. And it's one of the few reasons 14 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:01,400 that justifies the population to revolt and impose and really 15 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,560 buy. This is the second in a two-part 16 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,640 series on agriculture and national security. 17 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,640 Captain Gustavo Ferrera talks about China's food stocks in 18 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,480 peacetime and forecast supplies in conflict. 19 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,880 Ferrera is an agricultural economist for the 353 civil 20 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,200 Affairs command, FXSP. And also for. 21 00:01:22,320 --> 00:01:23,800 The US Department of Agriculture. 22 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,960 He and his 38G agriculture team research consult globally on 23 00:01:28,960 --> 00:01:32,440 food, stocks and stability. Additionally, Ferrara discusses 24 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,560 the 38G program and now it brings in specialists to help 25 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,000 civil affairs consult agency leaders and partner nations. 26 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,840 So stay tuned. So the the ruling class is 27 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,240 always very sensitive. There is a cultural tradition 28 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,240 that the ruling class must always ensure, at the very 29 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,800 minimum food security. Right. 30 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,400 And even today, that reflects a lot in the policy and narrative 31 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,560 of the current ruling class. In China, it's. 32 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,880 If they have history with accepting that the population 33 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,720 will rise up, it's not like North Korea where you can starve 34 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:08,120 your population and build a nuclear program and accept that 35 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,919 they will behave properly. Correct. 36 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:12,360 Yeah. They're extremely sensitive to 37 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,480 that. Plus it's still pretty fresh and 38 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,920 in some segments of population, population, memory, the Great 39 00:02:18,920 --> 00:02:22,190 Famine. Declined to kill 10s of millions 40 00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:25,230 of people in the 50s. Well, they still have living 41 00:02:25,230 --> 00:02:26,230 memory. Right, right. 42 00:02:26,230 --> 00:02:27,510 So they. Have grandparents and great 43 00:02:27,510 --> 00:02:30,310 grandparents are like you don't know what it was like to starve 44 00:02:30,310 --> 00:02:33,270 on water. Yeah, and they have those eating 45 00:02:33,270 --> 00:02:35,110 habits. They still reflect those 46 00:02:35,150 --> 00:02:38,750 struggle times. So anyway, that is just a recent 47 00:02:39,270 --> 00:02:42,710 event that guarantees so those events do not happen again. 48 00:02:43,030 --> 00:02:45,870 It was all based on bad policies, Sure, plain and 49 00:02:45,870 --> 00:02:48,190 simple. It was all ill advised 50 00:02:48,190 --> 00:02:52,730 government acts. And with dire consequence today 51 00:02:52,730 --> 00:02:57,210 the population has adopted more western lifestyles to include 52 00:02:57,290 --> 00:03:00,170 more protein rich, dairy rich diets. 53 00:03:00,370 --> 00:03:04,170 They consume luxury goods such as imported European wines. 54 00:03:04,970 --> 00:03:08,370 So more than ever now the population has achieved A 55 00:03:08,370 --> 00:03:12,330 threshold of the security that it will be hard to imagine then 56 00:03:12,330 --> 00:03:14,450 going back to. To a rice. 57 00:03:14,770 --> 00:03:16,650 Yeah. And we type of diet. 58 00:03:16,650 --> 00:03:18,770 So it's going forward I think that this. 59 00:03:19,210 --> 00:03:21,290 Sensitivity. It's only getting more 60 00:03:21,490 --> 00:03:24,010 preeminent than than before because like they did it 61 00:03:24,010 --> 00:03:26,970 comfortable, they enjoy a much better, more balanced eye. 62 00:03:28,490 --> 00:03:33,170 So do you think that as they consider operations or decided 63 00:03:33,170 --> 00:03:37,130 to blockade Taiwan or if they decided to go into Myanmar, this 64 00:03:37,130 --> 00:03:40,930 is a real consideration for them is how much they can ensure they 65 00:03:40,930 --> 00:03:43,890 feed their military as they are Expeditionary? 66 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,440 Not only the military, it's just in general the the overall 67 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,280 population, right? Well, and that's what happens, 68 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:50,800 right? If you go Expeditionary, you've 69 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,240 got to feed that army and that Air Force military and that 70 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,560 comes out of your surplus that would go into the population. 71 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:02,560 Correct. China has some significant 72 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,240 national stock reserves of key agricultural commodities. 73 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,000 Just go on. So it be in wheat and rice, 74 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,400 right? And how much is on those? 75 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,730 How many? Millions of metric tons are in 76 00:04:14,730 --> 00:04:17,730 those stock. Stock like it's a state secret 77 00:04:18,170 --> 00:04:22,130 nobody knows. And all US and analyze for 78 00:04:22,130 --> 00:04:26,330 commercial purpose. They always try to assess and 79 00:04:26,330 --> 00:04:29,010 try to estimate what were the volumes of those stocks because 80 00:04:29,010 --> 00:04:31,290 that determines trade, export, imports. 81 00:04:31,570 --> 00:04:34,330 Sure, they can always release those stocks when needed, right? 82 00:04:35,410 --> 00:04:38,130 But there's even speculation that some of those stocks are. 83 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:43,000 Tunnels underground, under the mountains, and again, a lot of 84 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,920 secrecy, right? But to maintain those stocks, 85 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,880 especially in commodities such as corn and soybeans, they're 86 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,480 not self-sufficient. China must import very, very 87 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,560 large volumes of those. Products, right? 88 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,640 And those imports come strictly for a handful of countries, to 89 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,560 include the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, 90 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,810 and Russia now, right? You were talking about soybean 91 00:05:08,810 --> 00:05:13,170 as being a critical crop that they rely on for food stock for 92 00:05:13,170 --> 00:05:15,010 their animals. Correct. 93 00:05:15,970 --> 00:05:21,610 So as as food production became more industrialized and diet 94 00:05:21,610 --> 00:05:25,890 habits evolve in China, now China is the world's largest 95 00:05:25,930 --> 00:05:29,690 pork consumer. So China adopted this 96 00:05:30,050 --> 00:05:32,650 industrialized massive pork production. 97 00:05:32,770 --> 00:05:35,930 They're vertical farms. Some of them are 10 stories 98 00:05:35,930 --> 00:05:37,330 high. They contain. 99 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,720 Thousands and 10s of thousands of animals like you said, that 100 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,280 requires a lot of feed, and soybeans is always considered to 101 00:05:45,280 --> 00:05:49,200 be one of the best alternatives. Does it create problems with the 102 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,200 animals if they're constantly eating the same diet? 103 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,440 Not necessarily their balanced diets, I mean their rations, 104 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:59,320 they're being used, even United States are used constantly. 105 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:03,400 But the problem is that it puts a lot of pressure on domestic 106 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,640 agriculture is incapable support that growth. 107 00:06:07,370 --> 00:06:11,050 And therefore they do have to import food. 108 00:06:11,650 --> 00:06:15,930 It is an interesting image in my head of A10 story pig farm. 109 00:06:16,690 --> 00:06:19,970 A pig high rise basically right? Or a condo for pigs so they 110 00:06:19,970 --> 00:06:21,810 don't get out of their trough. They don't. 111 00:06:21,930 --> 00:06:25,930 And in fact, they dealt with a major African swine fever that 112 00:06:26,050 --> 00:06:29,450 decimated their big farms, right? 113 00:06:29,730 --> 00:06:34,090 And it forced them to call 10s of thousands of animals. 114 00:06:34,090 --> 00:06:36,490 It was it was a massive outbreak. 115 00:06:36,940 --> 00:06:40,780 Again, it causes food security concerns and where all of a 116 00:06:40,780 --> 00:06:45,180 sudden the price of pork meat, which is just skyrocketing, they 117 00:06:45,180 --> 00:06:47,980 handle they they getting better in terms of phytosanitary 118 00:06:48,100 --> 00:06:49,420 measures. They're getting much more 119 00:06:49,420 --> 00:06:54,060 sophisticated and realize the risks right, but but it keeps 120 00:06:54,060 --> 00:06:57,020 bringing back the same thing with their dairy They're 121 00:06:57,020 --> 00:07:00,220 increasing dairy production, but again, it goes back to the same 122 00:07:00,220 --> 00:07:04,100 problem. China is constrained in terms of 123 00:07:04,100 --> 00:07:09,150 farmland and water resources. So even though there is 124 00:07:09,270 --> 00:07:14,190 political backing for more food self-reliance, they still do not 125 00:07:14,190 --> 00:07:19,270 have the natural endowments you. Mean like healthy soil, water. 126 00:07:19,390 --> 00:07:21,030 Correct, correct. They just don't. 127 00:07:21,310 --> 00:07:26,190 It's between contamination, organization, lack of even farm 128 00:07:26,190 --> 00:07:28,390 labor. I mean it's been this for 129 00:07:28,390 --> 00:07:30,110 decades. It's been massive migration 130 00:07:30,110 --> 00:07:33,310 towards the coastal parts of the country, farming, families 131 00:07:33,550 --> 00:07:36,110 moving to the city looking for better economic opportunity. 132 00:07:36,630 --> 00:07:38,870 Right. In your paper, you had some 133 00:07:39,990 --> 00:07:43,630 projections about if China went on a wartime footing and they 134 00:07:43,630 --> 00:07:46,350 were disconnected from the global economy. 135 00:07:47,350 --> 00:07:50,310 I think it was what, two years before they go into a crisis 136 00:07:50,310 --> 00:07:54,430 conserving type of mode, right? Right, that's that's the common 137 00:07:54,430 --> 00:07:59,030 wisdom that it states that those reserves will probably sustain 138 00:07:59,030 --> 00:08:02,990 China for two years. However obviously things have. 139 00:08:03,700 --> 00:08:08,740 Shifted and Russia probably could now become a backdoor type 140 00:08:08,740 --> 00:08:12,580 of supplier and where he could probably redirect some of those 141 00:08:12,580 --> 00:08:16,660 needed grains through mainland rather because all the trade, 142 00:08:16,900 --> 00:08:21,580 all this massive trade that happens between China and and in 143 00:08:21,580 --> 00:08:25,660 the US and Argentina and Brazil happens mostly by sea, right. 144 00:08:27,410 --> 00:08:31,530 Thousands of Panamax vehicles loaded with bulk commodities 145 00:08:31,530 --> 00:08:34,169 that unload into Chinese ports every day. 146 00:08:34,690 --> 00:08:37,890 Well, if that trade gets disrupted for whatever reason, 147 00:08:38,250 --> 00:08:42,049 you got those national strategic reserves by sometimes in 148 00:08:42,049 --> 00:08:45,570 Chinese, but it's unknown how long two years is. 149 00:08:45,890 --> 00:08:48,970 It's a mark that people have in the industry. 150 00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:51,720 Right. Then you have potentially Russia 151 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,480 try to apply some of those things. 152 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:56,800 Staples that you can see. And there's no alternative. 153 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,280 Russia care supply some wheat. But China's stuck, right? 154 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:05,080 It's by trade, by necessity is stuck with South America and 155 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,440 United States, right? Let's say. 156 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,840 You know, there's a grantation between China and the US only. 157 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:17,000 But China maintains good trade relationships with Brazil and 158 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,160 Argentina, right? Because of the the geographic 159 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:24,360 location of those farms, there's a the cycle, right, a farming 160 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:28,240 cycle in another another atmosphere and the southern 161 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:33,120 atmosphere. So what happened US and 162 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,240 Brazilian, they split the year in two. 163 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,840 Basically there's a exporting soybean season and corn season 164 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:43,240 for the US which starts in September and goes all the way 165 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,040 to February roughly and all the sudden. 166 00:09:46,730 --> 00:09:50,330 Brazil and Argentina take over because that's their time for 167 00:09:50,330 --> 00:09:53,130 harvest. Until the late summer, they take 168 00:09:53,130 --> 00:09:57,090 over the export market. So China would not have the 169 00:09:57,090 --> 00:10:00,690 ability to just flip because there's this seasonality 170 00:10:00,690 --> 00:10:04,130 component that keeps that dependency going across 171 00:10:04,130 --> 00:10:07,010 different atmospheres. The Global Commerce Center 172 00:10:07,010 --> 00:10:08,810 connectivity creates the dependency. 173 00:10:09,050 --> 00:10:11,610 And it's just a lack of, I mean, there's no other countries that 174 00:10:11,610 --> 00:10:14,650 can produce that much, right? Not only quantity but the 175 00:10:14,650 --> 00:10:17,450 quality because there's there's always the quality like 176 00:10:17,450 --> 00:10:22,290 Argentina typically produces a lower quality soybean with less 177 00:10:22,290 --> 00:10:25,650 protein but but they they're good at producing meal So 178 00:10:26,010 --> 00:10:28,930 there's all this technical considerations that makes very 179 00:10:28,930 --> 00:10:32,530 difficult for China to try to outsource alternative there's 180 00:10:32,810 --> 00:10:36,530 there's no such alternative I. Don't mean to change the topic, 181 00:10:36,530 --> 00:10:40,250 but you garnered this from your work at both. 182 00:10:41,010 --> 00:10:47,370 US AG and from civil affairs. If a soldier or a diplomat or an 183 00:10:47,370 --> 00:10:52,250 aid worker or field operative working with a partner nation, 184 00:10:52,610 --> 00:10:57,690 how do they plug in AG to build estimates of stability or 185 00:10:57,690 --> 00:11:00,890 development and growth? Because people do go out to 186 00:11:00,890 --> 00:11:03,730 these partner nations and do estimates work with the partner 187 00:11:03,730 --> 00:11:05,450 nation on their on their systems. 188 00:11:06,460 --> 00:11:10,500 So the USDA, and this is going back to a major event that 189 00:11:10,500 --> 00:11:12,780 happened during the the height of the Cold War. 190 00:11:13,420 --> 00:11:17,580 The Soviet Union that time had a major series of crop failures. 191 00:11:17,940 --> 00:11:22,220 Before this, there was no monitoring, no tracking, proper 192 00:11:22,220 --> 00:11:27,140 tracking, how much grains and and agricultural products were 193 00:11:27,140 --> 00:11:30,620 being produced, trade and consume around the world. 194 00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:33,390 There was not a. A proper assessment and 195 00:11:33,390 --> 00:11:35,150 monitoring of those flows, right. 196 00:11:35,150 --> 00:11:38,470 So there is no understanding of like which country were missing 197 00:11:38,550 --> 00:11:41,270 or which country were had a deficit, which one of the 198 00:11:41,270 --> 00:11:44,150 surplus and where those surplus were moving around. 199 00:11:44,550 --> 00:11:48,630 So what happens, because there was nobody assessing this and 200 00:11:48,630 --> 00:11:51,590 with with severe implications in a possible famine. 201 00:11:52,030 --> 00:11:53,910 So what happens? They end up through the back 202 00:11:53,910 --> 00:11:58,190 door channels buying all the weeds they could get their hands 203 00:11:58,190 --> 00:12:01,410 on from the US. And before they realized in the 204 00:12:01,410 --> 00:12:05,530 US actually was running low on their own stocks of wheat and 205 00:12:05,530 --> 00:12:10,090 how did they end up selling it to our Cold War main opponent. 206 00:12:10,250 --> 00:12:13,490 So there was a source of consternation and less sense of 207 00:12:13,490 --> 00:12:16,730 humiliation that we end up selling such a key resource to 208 00:12:16,730 --> 00:12:19,210 our enemy. So, So from that point on, the 209 00:12:19,210 --> 00:12:23,370 USA create this, this group called the WASI and it's a 210 00:12:23,370 --> 00:12:27,570 report is World agriculture and Supply Demand Estimation and 211 00:12:27,570 --> 00:12:29,690 it's a report that's published every month. 212 00:12:30,030 --> 00:12:33,750 Which I'm part of it in my USDA capacity as an agriculture 213 00:12:33,750 --> 00:12:36,270 economist. It's a large body of profession 214 00:12:36,790 --> 00:12:40,510 all over the world. And the USUSDA employees, some 215 00:12:40,510 --> 00:12:45,030 they are embedded in embassies after shares, and some are 216 00:12:45,110 --> 00:12:48,870 experts here in Konas. Every month they monitor 217 00:12:49,190 --> 00:12:54,870 production, supply, demand, stock levels for every country 218 00:12:54,870 --> 00:12:58,210 for every major commodity. Which is a good predictor of 219 00:12:58,210 --> 00:12:59,570 stability. It is, it is. 220 00:12:59,930 --> 00:13:03,090 And you can identify what countries are struggling. 221 00:13:03,730 --> 00:13:07,290 Would you expect trade to move from what place to what place? 222 00:13:08,090 --> 00:13:12,010 So now we are much better position to identify what the 223 00:13:12,010 --> 00:13:14,570 true situation is in the global bank market. 224 00:13:15,010 --> 00:13:17,770 Which also helps with forecasting future risk. 225 00:13:17,810 --> 00:13:18,730 Correct. Exactly. 226 00:13:18,730 --> 00:13:21,530 Like with Ukraine, you know, the Ukraine war, there's. 227 00:13:22,220 --> 00:13:25,100 Obviously there had to be major adjustments to those estimation 228 00:13:25,100 --> 00:13:27,020 because you know, all of a sudden there was a major 229 00:13:27,020 --> 00:13:31,300 disruption in the key AG region of the world. 230 00:13:31,700 --> 00:13:36,220 So all those estimates had to be readjusted and figure out how 231 00:13:37,100 --> 00:13:38,620 the other countries will react to it. 232 00:13:38,620 --> 00:13:42,380 You know how things get redirected from one market to 233 00:13:42,380 --> 00:13:46,100 the next. But again, in the case of China, 234 00:13:46,100 --> 00:13:49,260 right, there's a lot of energy and effort that goes into figure 235 00:13:49,260 --> 00:13:53,550 out how much China will import. From the United States and other 236 00:13:53,550 --> 00:13:56,670 countries because it is the leading customer of those key 237 00:13:56,670 --> 00:14:00,750 commodities. So it's truly is all eyes on 238 00:14:00,870 --> 00:14:05,230 China, right, which again from a commerce perspective and even 239 00:14:05,230 --> 00:14:07,830 for national security perspective, it's good that we 240 00:14:07,830 --> 00:14:10,590 tracking that, It's good that we have a finger on the pulse to 241 00:14:10,590 --> 00:14:14,110 understand what kind of policies did they implemented. 242 00:14:14,940 --> 00:14:16,860 Where they're strong, where they're weak, where where 243 00:14:16,860 --> 00:14:19,340 there's needs. If there's a strong demand from 244 00:14:19,340 --> 00:14:23,180 China, I mean it comes down to basic economics, right, That 245 00:14:23,180 --> 00:14:28,340 will mean large volumes exported to China, high commodity prices 246 00:14:28,700 --> 00:14:33,620 for US farmers, which increase the overall financial health of 247 00:14:33,620 --> 00:14:36,420 our farming community. And and we have seen this in the 248 00:14:36,420 --> 00:14:41,060 last 2-3 years, you know, with between COVID and and the war in 249 00:14:41,060 --> 00:14:43,780 Ukraine. Global food prices have reached 250 00:14:43,780 --> 00:14:48,900 historical highs recognized and while this has been extremely 251 00:14:49,020 --> 00:14:51,340 problematic for net importing countries. 252 00:14:51,980 --> 00:14:54,900 I saw a lot of news of concern in the Middle East and North 253 00:14:54,900 --> 00:14:57,420 Africa as like Egypt, because they use so much of that. 254 00:14:57,420 --> 00:14:58,580 We. Correct. 255 00:14:58,580 --> 00:15:03,060 So there was really an immediate concern about it, but for the 256 00:15:03,060 --> 00:15:06,740 net exporting countries like the Brazil, the Argentina, the US 257 00:15:06,780 --> 00:15:09,410 and probably why? That was was good news. 258 00:15:09,410 --> 00:15:14,570 I mean in fact we like you know the profit margins, the farmers 259 00:15:14,570 --> 00:15:17,570 were you know really healthy in 2022. 260 00:15:17,570 --> 00:15:19,930 So, right. So it depends on what side of 261 00:15:19,930 --> 00:15:24,130 the the store you're looking at for places like China and they 262 00:15:24,130 --> 00:15:27,490 end up paying a higher price for for those imports. 263 00:15:28,210 --> 00:15:33,330 Your USDA and you're you're an agricultural economist, so 264 00:15:33,330 --> 00:15:37,530 you're part of a team of 38G agriculturalists. 265 00:15:37,530 --> 00:15:39,800 Who? Often go out and consult 266 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:45,600 globally on these very issues. Our job is to provide insider 267 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:50,520 expertise or any agricultural issues that may impact, you 268 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:55,280 know, either national security or even in terms of nation 269 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,800 rebuilding or reconstruction. Get a stable food production 270 00:15:58,800 --> 00:15:59,440 right? Correct. 271 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,720 Restore the food supply chains back to some sense of normality. 272 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,990 Try to improve the markets. Reinstate the previous markets 273 00:16:07,990 --> 00:16:10,630 that were in place. So that's typically our role is 274 00:16:10,630 --> 00:16:13,390 that is just provide the expertise to the commanding 275 00:16:13,390 --> 00:16:17,390 officers they look it says once kinetic operations start to 276 00:16:17,390 --> 00:16:21,550 seize and we start shifting towards reconstruction and 277 00:16:21,550 --> 00:16:25,110 stability and governance, how can we restore all those key 278 00:16:25,110 --> 00:16:28,190 governance functions. So we are the subject matter 279 00:16:28,230 --> 00:16:30,790 expert when it comes to agriculture and food and food 280 00:16:30,790 --> 00:16:31,710 security. Right. 281 00:16:31,710 --> 00:16:34,910 So if when Ukraine finally completes this conflict? 282 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,800 And they need reconstruction. They need to pull in folks like 283 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:43,080 you, both in the suit aspect as well as in the uniform, to make 284 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,800 forecast, to do assessments on ground of what's already 285 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,920 destroyed, what can be repaired, and then funnel those 286 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,840 reconstruction dollars towards rebuilding Ukraine to be a 287 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,920 vibrant food producing country again. 288 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,320 Great. And that's the way the timeline 289 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,120 that follows you know, obviously. 290 00:16:59,740 --> 00:17:03,380 That mission is is to be shared with multiple government 291 00:17:03,380 --> 00:17:07,099 agencies, State Department, USID which you know the well trained 292 00:17:07,099 --> 00:17:10,900 well equipped for that mission. But the 38 gulfs and the the 293 00:17:10,900 --> 00:17:14,140 Civil Affairs and the US Army Reserve, they typically tend to 294 00:17:14,140 --> 00:17:18,740 be the leading party in this when the instability situation 295 00:17:18,780 --> 00:17:23,619 is not good enough for those civilian agency. 296 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,359 Should be doing their work. Plus, you're supplemental. 297 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,200 I mean, they have great people, but it's nice to have a few 298 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:33,120 extras to come in and help with the paperwork on all the site 299 00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:35,720 visits and their. Help in this you can assist them 300 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,880 with the expertise and some of the connections we already have 301 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,360 established with the local leaders and national government 302 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:48,160 agencies so we can start those conversation and once all these 303 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,760 apparatus move in with, we can help to facilitate that 304 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,690 transition. And help make those connections 305 00:17:54,690 --> 00:17:56,970 so those agencies are set up for success, so. 306 00:17:57,930 --> 00:18:00,210 Right. Matter of fact, you had a paper 307 00:18:00,210 --> 00:18:04,250 that went to the Moldova embassy and was read widely about 308 00:18:04,370 --> 00:18:07,370 Moldova agriculture. You've gotten papers in South 309 00:18:07,370 --> 00:18:11,450 America, Africa, Asia, same thing where you've done research 310 00:18:11,450 --> 00:18:14,850 projects and putting together white papers to kind of just 311 00:18:14,850 --> 00:18:17,850 expose some of the conditions and either add. 312 00:18:18,540 --> 00:18:22,380 Way to needs. Or reinforce good supply lines 313 00:18:22,380 --> 00:18:23,660 and things like that, right? Yeah. 314 00:18:23,820 --> 00:18:27,820 And we try to foresee potential either opportunities or think 315 00:18:27,820 --> 00:18:31,380 that might be problematic. We try to identify some factors 316 00:18:31,380 --> 00:18:35,700 or events secured lead to intersect between full security 317 00:18:35,700 --> 00:18:37,260 agriculture and national security. 318 00:18:37,660 --> 00:18:39,940 Right. And in the case of this Moldova 319 00:18:39,940 --> 00:18:43,700 research that we did, we tried to draw lessons for what we 320 00:18:43,700 --> 00:18:45,460 observed in Ukraine. You know, right. 321 00:18:45,700 --> 00:18:49,970 A key major. Agriculture exporter who saw his 322 00:18:49,970 --> 00:18:53,490 production in trade severely disrupted by the conflict. 323 00:18:53,490 --> 00:18:56,610 Right There's still a lot of agriculture going on, no doubt 324 00:18:57,130 --> 00:19:00,890 still exporting thanks to the Black Sea grain initiative which 325 00:19:00,890 --> 00:19:04,770 is up for renewal this month. It's still under negotiations, 326 00:19:04,770 --> 00:19:09,090 so to be seen if this is to happen, the similar situation is 327 00:19:09,090 --> 00:19:13,210 to happen to another nearby countries such as Moldova. 328 00:19:14,580 --> 00:19:18,300 Are we going to see some similar patterns events or is going to 329 00:19:18,300 --> 00:19:21,380 be a very different picture. For instance the agriculture in 330 00:19:21,380 --> 00:19:23,660 Moldova, it's it's quite different, right? 331 00:19:23,660 --> 00:19:27,820 It's it's much more focused on fruits, more high value 332 00:19:27,820 --> 00:19:31,100 products. Yeah compared to the just bulk 333 00:19:31,100 --> 00:19:35,420 grains like Ukraine like. Yeah, I don't want to over focus 334 00:19:35,420 --> 00:19:37,860 on Moldova, right. These are the kind of products 335 00:19:37,860 --> 00:19:41,220 that you have sent out and have reached embassies, right? 336 00:19:41,300 --> 00:19:43,900 And you've gone to embassies and consulted on these things, 337 00:19:43,900 --> 00:19:46,160 right? Once we finish our research and 338 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,320 we do disseminate this to to what we think will be the key 339 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,360 stakeholders and and primary consumers of this information, 340 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,720 which embassies will be obviously because they're the 341 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,480 equipment they have AG attaches, they got military attaches, 342 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,840 right and and obviously the State Department's mission 343 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,200 often, you know, overlaps with some of our work. 344 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,920 Yeah, we, we shared our work with the European command user 345 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,040 wrap. We always try to identify. 346 00:20:12,660 --> 00:20:15,260 Who will benefit the most from learning this information? 347 00:20:15,460 --> 00:20:17,140 And probably civil affairs teams that are out in the. 348 00:20:17,140 --> 00:20:19,100 Field as well. Say you by the way, you know. 349 00:20:19,220 --> 00:20:21,180 Consider this when you're also dealing with. 350 00:20:21,540 --> 00:20:22,780 These thanks for bringing that up. 351 00:20:22,780 --> 00:20:27,260 So we had developed what we call it's a basic country 352 00:20:27,260 --> 00:20:31,060 agricultural assessment tool which trains a civil affairs 353 00:20:31,060 --> 00:20:33,500 team. They may go on a mission and it 354 00:20:33,500 --> 00:20:38,620 can be both in continental Europe or can be a rural part of 355 00:20:38,620 --> 00:20:42,500 Africa, doesn't matter. But that assessment goes over a 356 00:20:42,500 --> 00:20:46,780 battery of questions that we think that any CA officer should 357 00:20:46,780 --> 00:20:51,420 be very aware of nuances and those factors that could really 358 00:20:51,420 --> 00:20:54,140 shape the environment in that region. 359 00:20:54,420 --> 00:20:55,580 And I give you an example, right. 360 00:20:55,580 --> 00:21:00,980 So if you think about farming in any Western country, you know 361 00:21:00,980 --> 00:21:05,020 you have a well developed banking system upfront provides 362 00:21:05,020 --> 00:21:07,820 the money to the farmers to buy the seeds and fertilizers. 363 00:21:08,730 --> 00:21:10,850 And then once they harvest, they repay back. 364 00:21:11,210 --> 00:21:15,010 In parts of rural developing nation, you might have a village 365 00:21:15,010 --> 00:21:18,690 where one family is the one that provides who supplies that 366 00:21:18,690 --> 00:21:22,850 function, right, is the one that all the farmers go to get their 367 00:21:22,850 --> 00:21:26,330 money. So as a civil affair officers in 368 00:21:26,330 --> 00:21:30,170 that area, you should know that that's a key stakeholder that 369 00:21:30,170 --> 00:21:33,450 holds a lot of power, a lot of gravitas in that region because 370 00:21:33,450 --> 00:21:36,570 all farmers had to rely on his funding every year. 371 00:21:36,990 --> 00:21:40,230 But again, we lay out all these key questions that we think 372 00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:43,550 we're gonna shed light on issues that probably otherwise will be 373 00:21:43,550 --> 00:21:46,990 overlooked. So we want you to make sure that 374 00:21:46,990 --> 00:21:49,510 you know the key players and want to make sure you don't make 375 00:21:49,910 --> 00:21:53,110 mistakes or actions that might be counterproductive from the 376 00:21:53,110 --> 00:21:55,840 agriculture point of view. Do you have links to that? 377 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,160 Paper online. We produce that internally. 378 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,680 What we do is once we identified CA teams are about to deploy, we 379 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,360 link up with their team leader and we go over product and we 380 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,040 discuss and give you the examples. 381 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,480 All right. Once that introduction is done, 382 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,680 we act as a reach back capability. 383 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:17,040 So we had some of those civil fair team reaching back to us. 384 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,440 Look, I have some question about this now I know you guys are the 385 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,140 Ed guys. But we stumble across this 386 00:22:23,140 --> 00:22:25,140 particular issue. What's your thoughts on this? 387 00:22:25,980 --> 00:22:29,100 OK, so when people reach out to this show? 388 00:22:29,780 --> 00:22:33,420 I'm going to be emailing you. Well, because that's the key 389 00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:36,660 thing is you know that the civil affairs study you go provides 390 00:22:36,660 --> 00:22:40,020 that rich back capability just like you know we have obviously 391 00:22:40,060 --> 00:22:43,580 we just add guys, but there's a functional specialist with a 392 00:22:43,580 --> 00:22:47,020 great deal of expertise and the other thing that makes our 393 00:22:47,500 --> 00:22:51,100 service very specific, very unique in the Army is our. 394 00:22:51,810 --> 00:22:56,050 Civilian professional network. Oftentimes I don't have the 395 00:22:56,050 --> 00:22:59,570 direct answers right to some of those specific questions, but I 396 00:22:59,570 --> 00:23:04,610 do know within the USDA or an academic who are the experts and 397 00:23:04,610 --> 00:23:08,210 I've done that multiple times where I would just just grab a 398 00:23:08,210 --> 00:23:11,290 phone or send an e-mail. In case in point, for for 399 00:23:11,290 --> 00:23:14,970 Ukraine, UCOM have really specific questions about 400 00:23:14,970 --> 00:23:17,330 Ukraine. I would develop this partnership 401 00:23:17,330 --> 00:23:20,330 with a colleagues at USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. 402 00:23:20,670 --> 00:23:23,630 Who are happened to be the experts on Ukraine. 403 00:23:23,910 --> 00:23:26,230 And you were able to cut through the bureaucracy and get right to 404 00:23:26,230 --> 00:23:27,710 the right person so they can get the answer. 405 00:23:27,710 --> 00:23:29,670 Well, I got two options. I can try to get these answers. 406 00:23:29,670 --> 00:23:32,870 It might take me two days. Or I can just ask this person 407 00:23:32,990 --> 00:23:36,990 and within within 4 hours this information was back to 408 00:23:36,990 --> 00:23:39,230 Stuttgart. Did you just, like, pull out a 409 00:23:39,230 --> 00:23:41,430 hat and reach into it and say here's your answer? 410 00:23:42,430 --> 00:23:45,350 Yeah, but it was a beautiful process in the sense that we 411 00:23:45,350 --> 00:23:49,830 connected the need with a source of knowledge really efficiently. 412 00:23:50,270 --> 00:23:52,630 He made it to the the right person at the right time. 413 00:23:52,790 --> 00:23:57,830 And those USDA officials, they routinely send me updates if 414 00:23:57,830 --> 00:24:00,790 they see there's something they may merit airing. 415 00:24:00,790 --> 00:24:02,990 With the econ user wrap, they do it. 416 00:24:03,150 --> 00:24:06,830 And I always, you know, I filter, I go through it and make 417 00:24:06,830 --> 00:24:09,630 that decision. And if it is, I'll send it 418 00:24:10,070 --> 00:24:12,710 because often times they have access to sources on the ground 419 00:24:12,710 --> 00:24:14,870 that even the US military doesn't have. 420 00:24:15,230 --> 00:24:17,070 They actually understand the problem, I mean. 421 00:24:17,930 --> 00:24:20,650 But yeah, like it's it's being a very fruitful relationship. 422 00:24:21,290 --> 00:24:23,370 That's fantastic and that that really calls to them. 423 00:24:23,450 --> 00:24:25,650 Have a good network, yeah, and a good reach back. 424 00:24:25,650 --> 00:24:27,610 Because you never know. What crazy question. 425 00:24:27,610 --> 00:24:31,210 You're going to get on the ground and suddenly have to find 426 00:24:31,210 --> 00:24:33,610 the right person. And yeah, it's fantastic you're 427 00:24:33,610 --> 00:24:35,330 able to reach out to the exact right person. 428 00:24:35,410 --> 00:24:37,330 Yeah, absolutely. And academics too. 429 00:24:37,330 --> 00:24:40,770 I mean, we have some partnership with some strong ag program and 430 00:24:40,770 --> 00:24:43,210 they understand the military there might be. 431 00:24:43,930 --> 00:24:47,170 Some initial concerns that what was the nature of this question 432 00:24:47,250 --> 00:24:50,290 but we have developed key partnerships and where they 433 00:24:50,290 --> 00:24:52,930 understand the mission we had to kind of do a little bit 434 00:24:52,930 --> 00:24:54,690 education right had to introduce ourselves to. 435 00:24:55,250 --> 00:24:56,450 Get through the mansplaining right. 436 00:24:57,250 --> 00:24:59,890 Well, it's just like saying we not your typical military you 437 00:24:59,890 --> 00:25:03,970 know like say you know I was an academic myself you know in you 438 00:25:03,970 --> 00:25:06,410 know you know I'm an Ag economist by trending. 439 00:25:07,050 --> 00:25:09,890 So it's that kind of breaks a lot of that initial 440 00:25:10,170 --> 00:25:12,290 reluctancies. OK, so now you now you speaking 441 00:25:12,290 --> 00:25:14,140 my language. And I think that that's a 442 00:25:14,140 --> 00:25:17,740 strength because and the same thing goes for the some of my 443 00:25:17,740 --> 00:25:21,540 colleagues, they have years of industry experience. 444 00:25:21,540 --> 00:25:22,700 Right. So they can reach right into the 445 00:25:22,700 --> 00:25:25,660 commercial sector. And pull the doors of the makers 446 00:25:25,660 --> 00:25:29,020 that they understand, you know, the minutiae of what it takes to 447 00:25:29,020 --> 00:25:31,900 rebuild a dam, right. And you might have this, you 448 00:25:31,900 --> 00:25:34,620 know, work experience in an engineering structure, 449 00:25:34,620 --> 00:25:37,860 engineering company, right. So you understand those those 450 00:25:37,860 --> 00:25:41,170 key issues. That your typical civil affairs 451 00:25:41,170 --> 00:25:43,490 officer may you know, may not be familiar. 452 00:25:43,530 --> 00:25:47,930 With right and I've found often with commercial contacts is that 453 00:25:47,930 --> 00:25:53,330 when you can't get access to a country or an issue and the 454 00:25:53,330 --> 00:25:57,370 academic and the and the former military or governmental process 455 00:25:57,370 --> 00:26:01,050 doesn't work, that commercial sector person usually has access 456 00:26:01,050 --> 00:26:03,970 and make at least get you an introduction get you in to talk 457 00:26:03,970 --> 00:26:06,610 to someone. So it's it's yeah it's critical 458 00:26:06,610 --> 00:26:11,100 to have that triad of people. Or resource networks in order to 459 00:26:11,100 --> 00:26:13,180 get things done. Right, I agree. 460 00:26:13,780 --> 00:26:15,500 But do you have any other last thought? 461 00:26:15,980 --> 00:26:18,860 Anything you want to pitch vacation at Disneyland? 462 00:26:19,900 --> 00:26:23,500 I don't know about that, it's, but honestly, I think one thing 463 00:26:23,500 --> 00:26:27,100 that this recent conflict Ukraine has highlighted it's the 464 00:26:27,180 --> 00:26:29,660 issue of global food security front and center. 465 00:26:30,060 --> 00:26:34,260 Again, DoD is not paying close attention to this issue because 466 00:26:34,300 --> 00:26:37,140 I mean if you start thinking about pandemics. 467 00:26:37,670 --> 00:26:41,710 Global warming, military kinetic conflict, all those are not 468 00:26:41,710 --> 00:26:44,790 throwing shock waves into the global supply chain. 469 00:26:45,710 --> 00:26:48,150 But I'm also would like to caution because this happened 470 00:26:48,150 --> 00:26:52,630 before in the 2010, 2012 crisis for different reasons. 471 00:26:52,710 --> 00:26:56,190 But we experienced a similar spiking in global food prices, 472 00:26:56,510 --> 00:27:02,590 which in turn trigger the air spraying and another sources of 473 00:27:02,590 --> 00:27:06,230 political stability just because of the high food price back 474 00:27:06,230 --> 00:27:08,520 then. The military was really 475 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,480 interest, but once the supply demand took care of that in the 476 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,720 years later. That obvious way, there's no 477 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:15,400 problems. Right, right. 478 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,920 There's other priorities. So hoping that what's seen now 479 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,960 will become part of the recurrent priority, not just a 480 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,760 temporary crisis. Right. 481 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,480 But it can also be a really good part of the response to the 482 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,240 Global Fragility Act, the Congress. 483 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:32,200 Right, correct. Right. 484 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:33,440 That passed. You're right. 485 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,160 We've seen the right policy that we the narratives there, There's 486 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:38,740 a. An acknowledgement this, this 487 00:27:38,740 --> 00:27:40,460 issue is a really problem, right. 488 00:27:40,460 --> 00:27:44,700 And yeah and the supply chains and all this vulnerabilities 489 00:27:44,700 --> 00:27:48,260 that were exposed during the COVID and that's that's all 490 00:27:48,260 --> 00:27:50,220 happening. It's just for the national 491 00:27:50,220 --> 00:27:52,380 security perspective. I think it's imperative that the 492 00:27:52,620 --> 00:27:57,180 DoD continues to put resources and eyes on this and incorporate 493 00:27:57,180 --> 00:28:00,220 this food security consideration into their planning operations, 494 00:28:00,220 --> 00:28:02,260 right. It is going to be a key driver 495 00:28:02,580 --> 00:28:05,340 to a lot of the. Events, they're going to shape 496 00:28:05,340 --> 00:28:06,980 out the environment that ails, right. 497 00:28:06,980 --> 00:28:11,500 So it's it's it's good for the for us as agriculture office to 498 00:28:11,500 --> 00:28:13,580 give the heads up, yes, to the planners. 499 00:28:13,980 --> 00:28:16,660 Look, you might not be looking at this, but this is going to be 500 00:28:16,700 --> 00:28:20,620 a major driver of political instability in this region and 501 00:28:20,620 --> 00:28:22,220 you need to take that into account. 502 00:28:22,780 --> 00:28:25,380 They add weather in there now they might, you know, food 503 00:28:25,380 --> 00:28:28,060 security and stability would be a A+ as well. 504 00:28:28,220 --> 00:28:31,020 I agree. Alright, well I think that's it, 505 00:28:31,460 --> 00:28:33,340 unless you have anything else. Now that that. 506 00:28:34,450 --> 00:28:36,170 That will do it. Okay well. 507 00:28:36,450 --> 00:28:41,770 Appreciate your time, man. Thanks again for listening to 508 00:28:41,770 --> 00:28:45,170 the One CA Podcast. Our show is a production of the 509 00:28:45,170 --> 00:28:48,610 Civil Affairs Association. If you are interested in coming 510 00:28:48,610 --> 00:28:51,770 on the show or guest hosting an episode, e-mail us at 511 00:28:51,770 --> 00:28:55,930 c.a.podcasting@gmail.com. I'll have that e-mail and the 512 00:28:55,930 --> 00:28:58,930 Civil Affairs Association website in the show notes. 513 00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:02,500 And to all our folks in diplomacy, development, defense 514 00:29:02,500 --> 00:29:05,700 and operations working on ground to build those relationships 515 00:29:05,700 --> 00:29:08,180 with partner nations and their people, thank you. 516 00:29:08,300 --> 00:29:11,300 For all you do. This is your host, Jack Gaines. 517 00:29:11,580 --> 00:29:13,660 Until next time, have a great week.