1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:02,560 Hello and welcome back to the show. 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:06,560 And I must say, Piers, I've had to field a number of complaints 3 00:00:06,560 --> 00:00:09,760 about missing an episode with Piers Curran over the last week. 4 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:15,160 Ah So what all those complaints? What the added up to of like 1 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:19,320 maybe? It was 2, but you know, there's 6 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:20,600 still complaints. No. 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:22,720 It was more, it was I'll take two. 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:28,000 But no, no, in this episode I wanted to, I kind of provide a 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:32,439 bit of, I guess, feedback to, to you on what we could talk about, 10 00:00:32,439 --> 00:00:34,920 which was a lot of students were saying, you know, things are 11 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,680 coming up, things are livening back up in terms of, you know, 12 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,440 not just markets, but the application season. 13 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,840 I don't know, a lot of banks go a little bit different in terms 14 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,120 of when they do their assessment centres and interviews. 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,080 But I know one big U.S. bank actually has an assessment 16 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,160 centre tomorrow. So we've got to get this episode 17 00:00:53,160 --> 00:00:56,560 out ASAP, but there's some other things rolling over as well 18 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,640 coming up in the coming weeks. So what I thought we could do is 19 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,160 just talk about some of the big topics, the what would you need 20 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,880 to know to survive? A kind of technical interview, 21 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,200 talking about global macro markets. 22 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,720 So the big things, the growth, the inflation, the interest 23 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,320 rates, what's happening? Because I had a chat with some 24 00:01:15,320 --> 00:01:19,440 students yesterday, and they were, I think, pretty convincing 25 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,800 in terms of knowing what the news was, perhaps not so good at 26 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,440 articulating how the market was really reacting through the 27 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,640 journey of the first six months of this year. 28 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,320 And they certainly weren't very good at connecting the dots 29 00:01:31,320 --> 00:01:33,960 about actual specific price movement when it came to 30 00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:37,520 different asset classes. Yeah, which I know that you're 31 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,160 the main man for. So yeah, over to you. 32 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,400 Yeah. Well, no, I mean, it's always 33 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,920 tricky with, well, any, any kind of obviously any interview, 34 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:54,560 right, Any assessment process. Obviously it's always difficult 35 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,040 and people are very nervous and it's always that fear of the 36 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:58,720 unknown. What am I going to get asked? 37 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,000 What do I need to know? And I'd already like, the first 38 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,000 thing I would always say is that, you know, always remember, 39 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,120 try and go with, with the mindset that, you know, you're 40 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,800 not, they're not looking to trip you up here, that the, the 41 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:14,280 people interviewing you are looking for a, you know, 42 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,000 intelligent, engaged conversation. 43 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,240 And they're trying to prompt you and, and obviously probe to see 44 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,640 where, where your knowledge is. And then try and just go from 45 00:02:22,640 --> 00:02:24,920 there in terms of having some follow up questions. 46 00:02:24,920 --> 00:02:29,280 And so look, I'd say, and, and the problem with markets, it's 47 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,920 always changing, right? Every week, you know, even every 48 00:02:31,920 --> 00:02:34,320 day, certainly every month that, you know, certainly in the world 49 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,560 of Trump, you know, stuff is, is volatile. 50 00:02:37,640 --> 00:02:41,520 And so you've, you've always got to be reading up, spending some 51 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:45,760 time every day just just touching base what's going on 52 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,520 today, What's happened, any big themes? 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,840 And so you obviously like anything, you've got to invest 54 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,680 some time to become fluent. And ultimately how are you going 55 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,360 to get a job with these big banks? 56 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,920 You need to have some really strong commercial awareness. 57 00:03:00,920 --> 00:03:03,600 You need to be confident and fluent in having a discussion 58 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:08,040 about, you know, what can be difficult stuff. 59 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,680 So I'd always, always go from the big macro themes. 60 00:03:11,920 --> 00:03:15,680 I'm a macro guy, so you know, I'd always, I'm always thinking 61 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,320 like super top level no matter what year it is. 62 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:23,000 You know, what is happening with the kind of big three things and 63 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,680 that I would call that GDP growth, I'd call it inflation 64 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,520 and interest rates. OK, these are the big three 65 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,840 things. They're all highly interlinked 66 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,040 and it's just where are we in the cycle? 67 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,120 And then right, what are the big powerful contributing factors to 68 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:44,840 all of those three thinking about from a, from a monetary or 69 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,600 a fiscal or a geopolitical perspective, you know, what are 70 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:53,240 the big forces on those three? And then ultimately, how are 71 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,920 markets behaving? And it's normally, the market 72 00:03:55,920 --> 00:04:00,760 behaviour is normally around expectations about how we see 73 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,680 those three things playing out in the months ahead. 74 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,960 So what do we think is going to happen to GDP growth in the 75 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,480 second-half of 2025? You know, how do we anticipate 76 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,840 inflation to change And therefore, how will people like 77 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,920 the Federal Reserve, you know, go about setting their interest 78 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,519 rate strategy? OK, So that, that's a super top 79 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,880 level then. And, and those things that can 80 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,760 influence those three are changing, right? 81 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:33,880 But right now in 2025, in some ways it's pretty easy because 82 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:39,480 you just need 5 letters that forms one word and that is 83 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,000 Trump. I thought so. 84 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,560 I thought you could say Taco, but yeah, that was only four 85 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,520 but. That's 4 letters, basically 86 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,120 Trump. You can pretty much lead 87 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,480 everything back to Trump in some way. 88 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:55,800 OK, So if we, and it's hard to kind of know where to go with 89 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,840 this conversation, but I, I would say if you're thinking 90 00:04:57,840 --> 00:05:02,840 about the big themes around Trump, then I would say it kind 91 00:05:02,840 --> 00:05:06,520 of falls into two buckets. Obviously it's tariffs, right? 92 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:10,160 And that's been the front and centre risk, you know, since 93 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,360 January. And, you know, where are we in 94 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,440 that whole episode? And we'll touch on where in a 95 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:17,800 second. But right, you've got to be on 96 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,480 top of the tariff situation. Now, of course, tariffs tie 97 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,240 into, obviously that's a risk and an uncertainty for things 98 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,960 like GDP growth. You know, is our tariffs going 99 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,640 to impact growth not just in the US, remember, but what about 100 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:37,640 China, for example, and others? And then right, are tariffs 101 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:41,520 going to be inflationary or not? Are people just panicking for 102 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,120 nothing about that? And then back final one of the 103 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,480 trio, the interest rate thing, you know how the Fed going to 104 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,320 play that out. And I think it's super difficult 105 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,320 for the Fed at the moment because it's so uncertain as to 106 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,920 where this is all going to go. So the Fed are quite rightly, 107 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,640 just as we say, standing pat, they're just kind of saying that 108 00:05:58,640 --> 00:05:59,920 we're not going to change anything for now. 109 00:05:59,920 --> 00:06:02,600 We want to see more evidence. OK. 110 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,720 So obviously tariffs then I think the new the newer one to 111 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,600 the conversation and I've been banging on about this on the pod 112 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,680 for a few weeks, but it's about the debt situation and it's the 113 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:18,200 deficit situation in the US, OK. And we've had the big beautiful 114 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,240 bill. So this is all political, right? 115 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:24,960 Both the tariff thing and this debt thing at the moment, the 116 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,720 number one item on the list of influencing growth, inflation, 117 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,920 interest rates, the number one is US politics. 118 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:36,000 OK. So with the deficit, we're 119 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,800 really worried that the debt situation is getting out of 120 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:41,840 control. And we'll dive into this in a 121 00:06:41,840 --> 00:06:44,760 bit more detail in a second. We're really worried that the 122 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,560 deficit situation is out of control. 123 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,360 We've had, you know, debt downgrades. 124 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,400 You know, is this bill that Trump's trying to get through 125 00:06:53,840 --> 00:06:57,200 Congress, you know, is that going to be a good thing for GDP 126 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:01,160 growth or is it going to be a bad thing for the deficit and 127 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,600 debt? And actually is it both of those 128 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,480 things together and then you've got a problem because one, 129 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,800 obviously more GDP growth, awesome, great. 130 00:07:09,280 --> 00:07:12,240 But at what cost? And ultimately the difficult 131 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,000 thing for markets and and what we're trying to get our head 132 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,720 around is which of these is going to be the more powerful 133 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,120 force, the positive GDP growth force? 134 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,560 Is that going to trump everything and become a positive 135 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,480 story? Or is the cost of that growth 136 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,680 going to be too great and the debt situation starts to 137 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,480 escalate and that negative force becomes the dominant thing, 138 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,480 right? And here we're caught between 139 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,960 those two at the moment. And I think that can be nicely 140 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:44,360 summed up with what is a pretty confusing financial market 141 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:49,280 landscape at this moment. So meaning if you go and look at 142 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,480 then, and I would say three things here when you're looking 143 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,040 at I'd say 4 things maybe when you're looking at markets, I'm 144 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,640 looking at stocks, right? So what's going on with the US 145 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,000 stocks and their backs all their, almost their all time 146 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,920 highs. So stocks are kind of shrugging 147 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:07,520 this off and are preferring to perhaps learn more towards that 148 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,880 positive outcome class half full. 149 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,200 But then if you go and look at the bond markets, bond yields 150 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:18,400 are incredibly high, which then feeds into the kind of concerns 151 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,320 around the debt situation, of course. 152 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,160 And so bond markets are maybe looking at glass half full 153 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:25,800 stuff. And then the dollar has been 154 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,400 weakening. And so actually just to complete 155 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,920 this first section since Liberation Day, that's Trump's 156 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,960 famous day at the start of April where he kind of re ratcheted up 157 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:41,120 his tariff war. Since then, there's been two 158 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:46,240 big, big themes in markets and one is rising bond yields and 159 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,600 the other is a weakening dollar. And if you're going to go into 160 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:53,400 an interview today, you need to be prepared to talk about 161 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,160 particularly those two things. Right. 162 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,840 So that that that last point then would be somewhat counter 163 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,280 intuitive. So those who are studying 164 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,080 classical economics might go right. 165 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,800 Yeah, I know the answer to this one, which could see them undone 166 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,880 pretty quickly because it would probably show that you're not 167 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,920 actually following markets day-to-day because you're just 168 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,320 going off the textbook. So, So what? 169 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:22,600 First of all, what's the actual theoretical way that these 170 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,040 relationships should work? And then what is and why is 171 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,640 what's happening? So the theory goes that you 172 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:34,240 might get in your textbook well, if yields are higher, well then 173 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,560 that often attracts money into your country. 174 00:09:37,560 --> 00:09:41,320 You, you get inflows coming in because international investors 175 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:45,040 want to take advantage of those higher yields by moving their 176 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,920 money into dollars and buying Treasuries because you get 177 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,960 higher interest rates on that. So higher yields can often lead 178 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:58,640 to, you know, an inflow and currency appreciation, but it's 179 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,080 not that it's the opposite. And here you've got some 180 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,640 alarmists out there in the media and I'm going to brand them 181 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:10,440 alarmists and, and I, Anthony Chung's moving into the alarmist 182 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,280 camp. I'll give it your comment to me. 183 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,640 When was it yesterday or no Monday, wasn't it? 184 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:20,800 What, what was it that you said to me? 185 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:24,320 It's like, hang on, have we got any dollar like as a company now 186 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:28,600 amplify me, have we got any dollar reserves? 187 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:33,360 And shouldn't we be looking to immediately exit all of our 188 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,480 dollar positions? Hey, hey, who's sensational now? 189 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:42,800 You know that's not what I said. But look, there's alarm out 190 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:47,400 there about this weird scenario. Higher yields, weakening 191 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,760 currency. Some are calling it and 192 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:52,880 comparing it to emerging market type crisis. 193 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,840 Because what can happen this vicious cycle that often happens 194 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,560 to emerging markets when the debt situation is getting out of 195 00:10:59,560 --> 00:11:02,600 control, right? If you're suddenly worried this 196 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:06,160 country can't afford its debt anymore, well, then what tends 197 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:10,960 to happen is you sell bonds, you sell that debt, but selling it 198 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,480 means the price goes down and the yield goes up, making it 199 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,480 even harder for that country to afford the debt because it's the 200 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,920 interest payments go up with those yields, right? 201 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:26,840 And so you sell the bonds and then you repatriate your cash. 202 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:28,680 So that's then an FX transaction. 203 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,520 So like, let's say you're holding some Argentinian bonds 204 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,640 and this is, this has happened several times in the last couple 205 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,200 of decades. There's been a bit of a 206 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,520 Stampede, right, as international investors exit. 207 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,440 So they're selling Argentinian bonds because they think they're 208 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,600 going to default, driving down price and driving up yield, 209 00:11:46,680 --> 00:11:48,640 increasing the chances of default. 210 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:51,480 Then you've got pesos, right? You're going to then take your 211 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:53,640 pesos and you're going to sell them and I'm going to buy 212 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,000 sterling, OK, to bring my money back home. 213 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,080 But that means the currencies value drops as well. 214 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,320 And then you get this vicious cycle because the more the 215 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,120 yields rise, the more the panic of default, the more 216 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,160 international investors exit their their trades and 217 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,720 repatriate money. And this vicious cycle often 218 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:14,120 gets out of control and leads to carnage and chaos and default 219 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,400 and IMF bailouts and all the rest of it. 220 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:20,520 OK, there's some in the media who are suggesting that the US 221 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:24,000 are looking like an emerging market debt crisis here. 222 00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:26,840 This is false. In my opinion. 223 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,520 This is false news. And that's because there's one 224 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,640 thing about yields rising. I mean, yes, US yields are 225 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,080 rising. I mean, I go and check out the 226 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,320 30 year yield. It's nudging 5%. 227 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,640 Why is that important? It's important because we 228 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:48,240 haven't really had 5% yields on a 30 year Treasury since 2007. 229 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:53,400 OK? So it's incredibly high, but 230 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:56,240 yields are rising all over the planet. 231 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:58,920 So here's your big difference. Yields. 232 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,720 Yes, they're rising in the US, but they're rising in the UK, 233 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,440 they're rising in Europe. Check out the Japanese 30 year 234 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,000 yield. We spoke about that the other 235 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,560 day. That's a an all time ever high 236 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,960 yields are rising everywhere. Now that's a key differentiator 237 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,680 here because if yields are rising in the US, well then 238 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,240 you're not going to if they're rising everywhere, right? 239 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,040 It's about yield differential. You're only going to get the 240 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:28,760 typical move into the US to take advantage of higher yields. 241 00:13:29,680 --> 00:13:33,360 Appreciating the dollar. The normal way of things isn't 242 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,280 happening because yields are rising everywhere. 243 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,680 So you don't need to, you know, getting extra yield by going to 244 00:13:38,680 --> 00:13:41,680 the US now you can get it everywhere else also, right? 245 00:13:41,680 --> 00:13:46,600 So there's, there's, there's less inflow into the US because 246 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,400 of that, right. But then you might think, well, 247 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,400 there's out aren't there outflows then? 248 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:52,800 And, and this is where that panic comes from. 249 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,680 And, and maybe the reason for, I mean, there's a few reasons, 250 00:13:56,680 --> 00:13:59,200 right? There's the debt sustainability 251 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,760 thing, which I've really just mentioned, but then there's also 252 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,680 the international demand side, which we've mentioned. 253 00:14:04,680 --> 00:14:06,880 And then it's Trump as always, back to Trump, right? 254 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,800 Because look at the moment, there's a little bit of an anti 255 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,520 Trump sort of positioning from a lot of the rest of the world 256 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:18,520 because Trump's bullying them into this tariff situation, 257 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:19,960 right? And so there's definitely a 258 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:25,520 negative, you would say bias against US assets at the moment, 259 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,720 which is helping that dollar probably to weaken. 260 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,760 But look, I'd say the dollar and you can measure the dollar 261 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,840 obviously against any individual currency you want and fine the, 262 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,840 the dollar like against the pound is at 1.35, which is the 263 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:42,440 highest we've seen for years, right? 264 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,640 That's the pound being expensive and the dollar being weak. 265 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,400 Euro dollars at 11385, right? Really. 266 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,200 So the dollar is weak against a lot of these currencies, but 267 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,360 we'll often talk about what's called the dollar index when 268 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,120 we're thinking about the dollar's value against a basket 269 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,760 of currencies and what's kind of psychological. 270 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,280 And the reason why it's getting a lot of air time in the press 271 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:08,160 is that the dollar index is below 100, which is just a 272 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,760 really key psychological level that puts it at the lowest we've 273 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,720 seen since 2022. So it's a 3 1/2, it's a 3 and a 274 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,240 bit year low for the dollar index, right? 275 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,160 But yes, 3 1/2 years, fine, it's really low. 276 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,440 But go back over the last couple of decades and 100 on the dollar 277 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:31,520 index is about average. So I think you can look at this 278 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,600 in a different way when you're thinking about the dollar. 279 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:39,720 I think we've come to the end of a period really post COVID where 280 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,960 the dollar's been abnormally expensive and actually it's just 281 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,800 returned to its mean, I would say. 282 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:51,200 So the dollar move, I'm not getting too alarmed about now. 283 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:56,680 I am very anxious about the debt situation, which is a separate 284 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,760 thing. But I think from a dollar 285 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,320 weakness perspective, I think we've kind of got a bit carried 286 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:07,840 away panicking about that and perhaps unnecessarily. 287 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,640 So that that divergent has been happening over really the last 288 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,480 what, 3 weeks? Yeah. 289 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,960 So you're, would you be on the side of that they will converge 290 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,680 and they'll come back to the normal pattern of things or what 291 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,400 does there need to be a trigger point in your mind from a near 292 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:30,360 to macro event around this debt talk that Ben's going to? 293 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:37,520 So the near term, yeah of so always the macro journey will 294 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,280 determine where we end up, right. 295 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:42,600 And so what's what's on the radar for the next few months? 296 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,440 And well, a on the tariff front, really the two things, it's 297 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:50,840 China and it's the EU, right? And with China, we've got August 298 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,920 the 12th is the key date because Trump basically said, right, 299 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,920 let's have a 90 day reprieve. Remember they were ratcheting 300 00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:03,120 tariffs up to 145% and they said, right, let's wind these 301 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,520 all the way back into whatever. I can't even remember now. 302 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:10,800 Was it 30% whilst we have 90 days to chat, negotiate and come 303 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,680 up with a better deal, right? That 90 day period ends on 304 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,280 August the 12th. Trump just overnight. 305 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,200 There's a little throwaway comment. 306 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:24,599 He said Zee, Zee, sorry, is hard to make a deal with. 307 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,600 So there's a little insight into how negotiations are going. 308 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,120 Obviously, I would assume Zee here is is kind of playing a 309 00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:35,360 hard game and then digging his heels in. 310 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,960 I think stuff like the US courts or some of the US courts making 311 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,200 the whole tariff thing illegal has helped all the other 312 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,360 countries that are on the negotiating table. 313 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,320 So probably she is taking advantage of that. 314 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,360 And Trump's saying that it's hard to make a deal, right? 315 00:17:51,360 --> 00:17:54,760 But we've got another couple of months until August the 12th. 316 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:58,200 Before that is the EU reprieve, 90 days. 317 00:17:58,200 --> 00:17:59,920 That comes to an end on July 9th. 318 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,160 So we're only kind of five weeks away from that now. 319 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,200 So those deadlines are key. And what happens on, you know, 320 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,120 in these negotiations along the way is really important. 321 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,480 Then it's about debt, right? And it's, does the beautiful, 322 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,120 big, beautiful bill get passed by the Senate? 323 00:18:15,360 --> 00:18:17,800 Remember, it's been passed by the House of Representatives. 324 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:19,600 Will it get passed by the Senate? 325 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:24,080 And there's really two big pro. There's two big things in this 326 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,120 bill. One's really positive and one's 327 00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:28,560 really negative. And again, it just comes down to 328 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,880 your judgement as an investor as to which one you think's more 329 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:35,800 powerful. The positive is this bill is to 330 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:40,320 extend Trump tax cuts. They're the tax cuts Trump 331 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:45,240 implemented in his first term, right over four years ago. 332 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:50,600 Now, Biden maintains those cuts, but they're due to expire this 333 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:54,600 summer. OK, So this bill is to put into 334 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,760 law and make those tax cuts permanent. 335 00:18:57,120 --> 00:19:00,040 So if this bill doesn't get through, you're going to get a 336 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,560 massive tax hike on the US, which will be highly negative 337 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,680 for things like GDP growth and and so on, right? 338 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,400 So if the bill gets through, you could say there's a big 339 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:15,160 positive, it's a big economic stimulus because it'll extend 340 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:16,960 the tax cuts, right? That's the positive side. 341 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:21,440 However, at what cost? Because tax cut or maintaining 342 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,040 tax cuts means you're not going to get a bump in revenue for the 343 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:29,520 government by taxes going up. And that's then a problem if the 344 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,440 government's got a really large deficit and debt, so that to 345 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,920 fund the extended tax cuts, they're having to increase the 346 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:43,320 deficit, making it more alarming as to whether that's 347 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,320 sustainable, especially when interest rates stay high. 348 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:52,240 And so interest debt costs for the US in 2026, they're going to 349 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,320 be above a trillion dollars just to service their debt interest, 350 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,880 right? The last time yields on the 30 351 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:04,960 year were at 5% was in 2007. So what was the debt situation 352 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,360 in 2007? All right, that's pre financial 353 00:20:07,360 --> 00:20:12,160 crisis, but in 2007 the debt to GDP ratio in the US was 62.9%, 354 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,680 today is 124%. So it's basically doubled. 355 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:21,640 Debt to GDP is doubled, right? And so the last time debt 356 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:27,280 interest costs were this high, their debt to GDP situation was 357 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,640 half. So you got a really big issue of 358 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,880 large amounts of debt and interest rates staying high. 359 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,360 And so that's the negative from this bill. 360 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,200 If this bill gets passed through the Senate, it's going to be 361 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,880 very, very, very interesting to see how markets react. 362 00:20:44,120 --> 00:20:48,600 Do they go big guns where hey, extended tax cuts, buy stocks, 363 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:54,120 S&P new all time highs or do bond yields spike because 364 00:20:54,120 --> 00:20:57,160 investors are like, now this ain't going to work out. 365 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:02,200 You can't afford this bond yield spike becoming then the bigger 366 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,920 force leading to a massive risk off and stocks get killed. 367 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,840 So at the moment then stock, stocks are just buying their 368 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,840 time and slowly edging up higher and higher. 369 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,000 But you're saying that though the risk factor to that 370 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,800 continuation of record high territory inequities, not to say 371 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,560 it won't continue, but the risk to the rally it will increase 372 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,360 given those near term events? Yeah, right. 373 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,960 And stocks are interesting. I mean, actually, and we're 374 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,720 obsessed with the US and I know on this we're very high. 375 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,280 Well, I'm very guilty of just kind of mainly talking US, but 376 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:40,640 they are the biggest game in town. 377 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:45,680 But German stocks new all time highs today, right? 378 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:50,640 So there's, there's stocks going up here globally despite tariff 379 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,520 uncertainty. But you could say, well, that 380 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,480 tariff uncertainty has massively come down because Trump's 381 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,840 conceding, right? And so that's what the stock 382 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,600 market's saying. They're saying Trump's not going 383 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,320 to follow through on any of this bad stuff. 384 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,720 A deal will get done. And, you know, let's go. 385 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,000 And, you know, if you're looking more medium term, people 386 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:13,760 thinking about the AI revolution leading to productivity gains 387 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,760 and GDP growth acceleration is on the horizon, right? 388 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,120 So fine, that's all time high. Go and look at U.S. stocks, 389 00:22:21,120 --> 00:22:22,480 though. They're not all time highs, but 390 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,640 they're pretty much back there. All right. 391 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:30,360 The NASDAQ is trading 21700 nearly the all time high is just 392 00:22:30,360 --> 00:22:33,760 above 22. Sorry, 20 yeah, 22,000. 393 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,880 So look, U.S. stocks are almost back to their all time highs, 394 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,400 but it's been quite a narrow rebound. 395 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:45,800 This is quite familiar territory because the reason for the US 396 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:50,040 stock market rebound is mostly the MAG 7. 397 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:54,760 Again, this is a 2024 thing where we call this a very narrow 398 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,600 based rally where it's just a handful of stocks in the index 399 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,440 that are responsible for most of the gains. 400 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,840 To put some numbers on it, the S and PS up 7% in since the start 401 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:10,960 of May, but 4% of that is just from 7 companies and it's the 402 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:17,000 MAG 7, except for swapping one of those out, take out Apple 403 00:23:17,360 --> 00:23:20,640 from the traditional MAG 7. Apple are right in the 404 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,000 crosshairs of the tariff risk, so they haven't recovered. 405 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,840 But actually, weirdly, Broadcom comes back. 406 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,200 If you put Broadcom in for Apple, then you've got this new 407 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,720 makeshift Mag 7 that's responsible for most of these 408 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,720 gains. But again, I always come back to 409 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,720 these two arguments. There's another two sets of 410 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,040 arguments. Well, is this good news then 411 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,680 that the stock markets rallied in the US? 412 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:49,360 Half would say it's actually bad news because of that narrow 413 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,040 argument. If the rallies based on only a 414 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,240 few companies, it's not sustainable, it'll never last, 415 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,560 right? But then the other argument is 416 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:01,760 actually US tech are the leaders, everyone else follows. 417 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,080 So actually they're the first ones to go and and actually the 418 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:06,680 others will follow. And actually this is just the 419 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,280 beginning then of a rally. So the beauty of markets and the 420 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,960 beauty of being in an interview situation, you can say whatever 421 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:19,360 you want as your opinion, right? You could be super bearish, doom 422 00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:21,080 and gloom, the world's going to end. 423 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,600 Or you could be super mega bullish and this is the 424 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,120 beginning of a beautiful secular rally. 425 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,800 And both arguments are valid as long as you're hitting it with 426 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,480 the right evidence, OK? No one knows what's going to 427 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,440 happen. And I think uncertainties 428 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:43,000 particularly elevated, which is why you got this weird situation 429 00:24:43,120 --> 00:24:45,840 where stock markets are saying everything's cool, everything's 430 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:50,000 fine, don't worry as you were. And bond markets, the kind of 431 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:55,360 alarm bell is, is softly flashing and it it whether that 432 00:24:55,360 --> 00:24:59,440 bond market alarm bell ratchets up or not, I think ultimately 433 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:03,120 will be the lead indicator to where we go next. 434 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,080 And it was the bond market before when stocks are really 435 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,360 selling off. When the bond market went was 436 00:25:09,360 --> 00:25:13,160 when Trump did a tactical turn on China before. 437 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,680 Is there anything within like who's trading these different 438 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,720 asset classes? So as a normal, normal Joe, I'm 439 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:25,040 not there trading the 30 year bond for example, but large 440 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:29,520 institutional funds are. So does that come into this as 441 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,080 some context as to why equities might behave slightly different? 442 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,240 Well, that's an interesting one. Are you suggesting that the bond 443 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,160 market is more intelligent? Like from a sort? 444 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:41,800 Of that is not what I said, Piers Curran. 445 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,720 Intelligent from a, you know, these are professional traders 446 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,440 that are really playing in the bond markets versus the stock 447 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,680 market where there's a lot of retail like in other words, 448 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:58,840 amateur trader volumes. Maybe you could say that, but 449 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,080 you know, ultimately, if the bond mark stock markets are all 450 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,200 time highs, right? The the mainly the rich own 451 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,920 stocks. OK, so if the stock market 452 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:15,440 drops, fine. The rich are going to lose 1020% 453 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,120 of their credibly valuable portfolios. 454 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,200 It's not going to necessarily impact Main Street, right? 455 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,600 Bond markets are entirely different. 456 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:29,120 If they move, everyone feels it. And that's because it governs 457 00:26:29,120 --> 00:26:32,680 the cost of borrowing. And ultimately, if the cost of 458 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,760 borrowing changes, if you own a house and you've got a mortgage, 459 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:37,800 well then your mortgage rates are going to go up. 460 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,640 If you've got a credit card that's rammed full of debt, your 461 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,400 interest payments or your credit card's going to go up, and so on 462 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,640 and so forth, right? And it's going to lead to 463 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,000 companies changing their strategy. 464 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,480 If, if the borrowing cost for businesses goes up sharply, 465 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,800 they're going to borrow less, which means they're going to 466 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,240 have to streamline. And then you start to get people 467 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,160 getting laid off, so people start losing their jobs. 468 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,520 And then you start to get that slide into a recession that 469 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,640 infects everyone in the country, right? 470 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:15,560 And so ultimately, bond yields are the king and and that's. 471 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,360 It it appears this is not an interview to join the rates 472 00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:21,760 desk, by the way. Oh shit, sorry. 473 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,880 What is this this? This is cash Equities, sorry. 474 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:30,480 Sorry, scrap that, scrap that. Stocks are stocks are key buy 475 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,640 video. Oh look, just. 476 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:39,640 To just to conclude then was commodities because we've spoken 477 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,480 in recent weeks about gold was kind of just tapping away at all 478 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,760 time highs, seemed pretty relentless, had a little bit of 479 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,640 a pullback, but then just shot back up again. 480 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,440 And something we don't talk often about is Bitcoin and just 481 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,160 crypto in general. So how's it looking then in 482 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:55,680 commodities? Because there's a few things 483 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,640 that play out, you know, in the broader picture on the supply 484 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,560 and demand side with OPEC have been making a few changes as 485 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,480 well. How does that fit into this 486 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,600 Trump tariff debt picture? Yeah. 487 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:12,000 So, well, let's talk oil first then, because it does play an 488 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,120 important role on on one, particularly on one of those 489 00:28:15,120 --> 00:28:18,760 things on on inflation, for example, right. 490 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,320 So if oil prices are going to drop, which they have, so oil 491 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:27,880 prices are, I forget they're like down 63 bucks, but that's 492 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,600 like in terms of a multi year low. 493 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,600 Let me just get the right stat here. 494 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,120 That's the lowest we've seen since the start of 2021, right? 495 00:28:35,120 --> 00:28:37,680 So oil's really low, cheap energy. 496 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,160 Great, OK, that's deflationary. Good. 497 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,080 Helps with that inflation situation. 498 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,040 And it's it's economically, it's economic stimulus in a way, 499 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,320 because energy is cheap. So people and companies are 500 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,640 spending less on energy and they got more money to spend on 501 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,600 everything else, right? So you could say that's a 502 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,600 positive thing. But then at exactly the same 503 00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:01,320 time, gold's all time highs, indicating that as a safe haven 504 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,800 kind of vehicle that's getting strong demand. 505 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:09,600 So again, you got a real conflicting set of market 506 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:13,560 situations here. But Bitcoin has just broken back 507 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,760 above 100,000. OK, a bit of Bitcoin made a new 508 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,480 all time high just over the last few weeks, right? 509 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:25,680 And is Bitcoin finally maybe becoming that safe haven status 510 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:30,680 that the Bitcoin enthusiasts have been trying to persuade me 511 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,800 for about 15 years that Bitcoin is a safe haven and I'll be 512 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:39,000 going no, it's not no, it's not No, it's not Maybe now it is and 513 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:44,160 that is tied into debt, right, and government debt situations. 514 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,760 And so maybe Bitcoin starting to show a flavour of safe haven 515 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:51,040 here anyway, so an all time high so gold and Bitcoin are going 516 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,960 well hang on a minute, there's risks on the horizon. 517 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,160 Let's get, let's put some of our portfolio into some safe places. 518 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:06,280 But or yeah, so that, so oil is because of OPEC increasing 519 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,880 production and maybe people are concerned about global growth, 520 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,080 right? So demand risk. 521 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:15,480 And so that's why oil is low. It's just is it low enough to 522 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:21,120 provide an economic stimulus enough to to mean we fall on the 523 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,760 positive side of, of of where we're right on the tightrope. 524 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,800 Let's maybe finish like this. We're on the tightrope here and 525 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:33,520 it could go either way. And it's either growth is strong 526 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:38,240 enough to pay for all this debt and we're panicking and it's not 527 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,760 a big deal and growth is strong enough to deal with interest 528 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,520 rates staying high. And maybe the AI story can 529 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,360 gather momentum and really fire that growth story and we're 530 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:53,440 panicking about nothing, right. Hopefully that's the side we 531 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,000 fall on. The other side is is definitely 532 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:01,000 very gloomy and that is actually growth will not rescue the day. 533 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:06,320 And therefore we've got a stagflation risk where 534 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,840 inflation's too high to be able to cut rates. 535 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:15,000 So interest rates stay high, leading this debt crisis to a 536 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:19,840 place where no one wants to see. And that's where you get this 537 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:25,400 dip and turn into an incredibly negative kind of vicious spiral. 538 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,840 So we really are on a tightrope at the moment. 539 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,400 And some markets are saying stocks are like we're hey, gross 540 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,200 coming. Don't worry, bonds and maybe 541 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,120 gold and maybe Bitcoin are suggesting, hang on. 542 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,600 We're a little bit more worried than you lot are over in the 543 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,680 stock market. Just a final question. 544 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,480 I did see some data out of China yesterday. 545 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,840 This is a their manufacturing sector had its worst slump since 546 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:54,160 September 2022. So yeah, how much of an I would 547 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:59,000 you cast into this macro picture about the economic performance 548 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,080 of China? I think you got to be really 549 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:05,520 careful because we also had some ISM and PMI data out of the US 550 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,400 that was really bad on the manufacturing side. 551 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:12,520 You got to be really careful about where you're comparing 552 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:17,120 things to because Trump and his Liberation Day tariffs, right, 553 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,280 was at the start of April. So what happened in March, 554 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:25,920 everyone bought a load of stuff. So inventory stocking at pre 555 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,880 tariff hike prices, right? So go and look at the data for 556 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:34,400 it from for March and you saw, you know, a huge bump up, right? 557 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:39,880 Of course you then get the equal and opposite collapse in April 558 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,520 because people stocked up in March, right? 559 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,200 So you're you're seeing a really big disruption. 560 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,520 I think really with all of this data, you've got to really wait 561 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,800 till May. We've got to get, we need the 562 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,320 May data, if not June, right. By the time we get to the 563 00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:57,880 midpoint of the year, I think we can look back and just average 564 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:02,320 it all out through this Trump driven volatility, average it 565 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,920 all out and only then will you really get a true understanding 566 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:09,440 as to where things sit. So I wouldn't get too alarmed 567 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:14,360 about some of these crazy stats like, yeah, biggest drop in 568 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,800 Chinese manufacturing since September. 569 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,440 Well, yeah, but March was really short, so. 570 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,600 Yeah, that's a very good point. All right, well, look, what 571 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:28,440 we'll do is we will open up the comments section and Piers and I 572 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,040 will be replying to help as best as we can. 573 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:35,240 So if you're watching this on YouTube or if you're on Spotify, 574 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:39,200 we are now publishing our podcast in video form on 575 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,080 Spotify. So let us know what you think. 576 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:46,600 Now you get to see the the, the faces behind the voices and you 577 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,360 know, is it, is it a yay or nay? Does it hit the mark? 578 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,320 Or not. OK, I'm bearish. 579 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,640 But yeah, otherwise, yeah, feel free to leave a comment on 580 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,600 Spotify as well that has access for us to also reply. 581 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,200 So if there's any questions, any views, any thoughts, or any way 582 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,920 we can help if you do have a pending interview, we're more 583 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:05,160 than happy to do so. All right. 584 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,080 Thanks as always, Pierce, and take care everyone. 585 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:08,159 Thanks a lot.