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They're like declaring a code 
red. 

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We're we're not winning on the 
product and now we're going to 

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make the 
Welcome back to the Newcomer 

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Podcast, Tom here, Eric and 
Madeline. 

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We're going to talk now about 
Open AI and the state of affairs

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in the AI race because it's been
a very chaotic seeming couple of

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days. 
Alert danger It's. 

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Yeah, yeah, there are flashing 
lights happening over in the 

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Mission St. 
Yeah, yeah, they're just running

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through the corridor screaming 
and throwing papers in the air 

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at Opening the Eye. 
Because door, yeah, door locks 

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are coming down. 
You know, there's smoke going 

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through the opening eye offices,
it looks like. 

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Alien when they're locking down 
for the creature. 

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And the, yeah, I know there are 
people that's like, you're in or

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out right now, Like, the water 
is filling into the rooms and 

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people's hands pressed up 
against the glass. 

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Yeah. 
So Sam Ultiman recently declared

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a code Red did. 
You order the code red. 

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I did the job. 
Did you order the code red? 

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God damn right I did. 
Inside I don't know why it's so 

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funny to me he he sent out a 
memo to to employees saying that

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they they needed a code red 
alert on on Chachi PT that 

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there's a lot of competitive 
threats in the app is not 

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working as well as they wanted 
to right now. 

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And this came a couple weeks 
after he also kind of warned 

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employees that there was about 
to be a very bad news cycle 

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around open AI, as Gemini and 
Google in particular, you know, 

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was breathing down their necks. 
And they released a new model 

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that was really good. 
And everyone now is down on open

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AI. 
Tom's literal first story in 

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Newcomer said yeah, Gemini, 
Google, they're in a better 

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place than you might think. 
Just yeah. 

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Yeah, yeah. 
Read the newsletter. 

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You could have made a bunch of 
money. 

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I'd love to take more credit for
it, but I was just talking to, 

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you know, sources at Google who 
were like, yeah, we have a 

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really good model here. 
I don't know why everyone 

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decided that we were fucked. 
Like, you know, Google literally

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invented key parts of the 
transformer technology. 

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Well, on the David Sachs, all 
the all in guys are like Google.

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The culture is gonna ruin the 
whole thing. 

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It didn't make any sense. 
And all the hedge run guys have 

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been super like standoffish 
about Google. 

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I I don't understand it. 
Yeah, Yeah. 

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Keep going. 
Yeah. 

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So what was the threat? 
Obviously, Obviously. 

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And they make money either way. 
That's the beauty beautiful 

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thing with Google. 
They have Google Cloud, you 

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know, and they have a search so 
they can drive the cost like 

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they do with, you know, their 
workspaces stuff. 

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You know they can screw over 
everybody else by offering 

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things that some people want to 
build money, right? 

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They're a monopoly, is what 
you're trying to say. 

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Yeah, you're. 
Saying they own title. 

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No. 
Is that improving the core line?

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I can't say say anything about 
that, but. 

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Yeah, it's like they have the 
full stack. 

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And I think what's been like 
clear in the last couple of 

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weeks is that like they're 
competitive at every part of it.

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Like Google Cloud is a major 
player in cloud, which we all 

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knew. 
The Tpus, which people kind of 

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all forgot about, are like the 
only legitimate competitor to 

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Nvidia's chips. 
And now they have one of. 

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Capture how much Tpus we're 
going to be a credible 

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competitor, I don't think. 
Yeah, well, they've been working

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on it for a long time. 
Like you compare that to like 

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open AI, which is very Johnny 
come lately with all of these 

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things. 
They're basically like building 

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a airplane in the sky or 
whatever that metaphor is. 

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Whereas like Google is literally
the airplane and like, you know,

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they they certainly were slow 
when it came to embracing it and

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like had a lot of concerns 
ethically, which is interesting 

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even though of. 
Course, I hope people listening 

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this podcast already know this 
fact, but attention is all you 

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need. 
The Seminole AI paper was 

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written by Google employees, 
like, so they were, they were 

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there, they knew it. 
They gave it away for free. 

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They created this whole problem 
themselves. 

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And so, yeah, it was frustrating
that they weren't like, leading 

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from the whole time, like you 
invented this category. 

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But you know, yeah, not 
surprising that they would 

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figure it out and and catch up. 
Right. 

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And So what I guess is more 
interesting to me now is like 

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the state of affairs going 
forward because the idea that 

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open AI is fucked, it's it's 
literally just AAI mean open AI 

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and Sam Altman assisted, but 
it's a creation of media. 

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Nothing has fundamentally 
changed about the business like 

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their model maybe isn't ranking 
as highly. 

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On. 
Traffic. 

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Also I think there are some 
traffic numbers. 

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Right. 
Traffic is a little down, yeah, 

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to HPT. 
But I will say also, Sam Altman 

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is such a savvy media player. 
He knows that if he sends an 

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e-mail to the entire company 
that says Code Red in a memo, 

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that that's going to get leaked 
to a reporter like. 

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And it's very possible Open AI 
leaked it itself. 

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Like a lot of these company 
memos, they know they're going 

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to come out and some of them the
companies leak. 

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You know, I I don't have proof 
either way on this one, but just

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as a reporter, these company 
memos, especially in the 

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Facebook era, were coming out so
often, but I think companies 

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were definitely handing them out
to reporters because it's like 

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we're blasting them to all our 
employees. 

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This is the message we want out 
there. 

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And it gives it gives the 
statements some sincerity that 

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you wouldn't get if you put it, 
if you put out a press release 

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saying, oh, we're we're in 
trouble. 

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Like people be like, what? 
But if you're like, it's to 

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employees, it's like, well, 
that's what they're saying 

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authentically inside. 
Then we metabolize it in the 

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culture. 
They wrote this for public 

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consumption, whether they leaked
it or not, right? 

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Yeah, it was for the public. 
I my, my belief is that they 

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didn't leak it on purpose. 
And I think the reason you can I

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can say that confidently is that
there actually weren't that many

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outlets that reported it with 
their own reporting. 

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It's actually only been a small 
handful of them. 

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So if everybody says we have a 
source, then the company is 

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like, all right, yeah, yeah, 
that was true. 

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Here's the here's the memo. 
Yeah. 

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Yeah, but that said, like, Sam 
is a smart guy who knows how the

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media works, and when you do 
send something out, you know 

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it's going to happen. 
So the level of intentionality 

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is sort of irrelevant at that 
point. 

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But I think like Google also had
a code red exactly 3 years ago 

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to this time where they were 
worried about the state of 

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Google search and, and, and 
ChatGPT was, was taking off like

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a rocket. 
And here's where we are now. 

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So, and I think Facebook in the 
past is, you know, Mark has 

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declared various code Reds over,
over different things. 

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And I think actually over Google
Plus, when that first came out, 

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there was a lot of concern over 
there. 

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So it's stupid to take from this
like the beginning of the end. 

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And and I saw some people 
tweeting that out. 

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It's like when you've declared a
code red, it's already over. 

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You've already lost, you know, 
your men are already dead. 

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And and it's like, we're so 
early in this. 

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And I hate using metaphor, but 
it literally is true. 

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Like if you can go from like an 
also ran like Google was a 

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couple of months ago, like when 
I wrote that piece, like 

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everyone thought Google was done
and here we are months later and

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they have the best model 
everything. 

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So it's like a lot is going to 
change. 

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The thing that does sort of 
start to worry me about open AI 

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is like I do think they have too
many plates spinning right now. 

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I think they are literally 
trying to become Google at a 

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time that Google already exists.
And I don't know like where 

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their focus is going to end up 
being. 

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Like you've got the Chachi PT 
stuff, you've got the Stargate 

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stuff, you've got the Johnny 
I've stuff, you've got the 

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browser stuff. 
Like I'm probably missing 5 or 6

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other things. 
They're trying to get an 

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advertising right now. 
The meme is they're trying to 

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get an ads. 
They're like declaring a code 

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red. 
We're we're not winning on the 

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product and now we're going to 
make the product worse with 

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advertising. 
Right, right. 

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Which man? 
The whole advertising thing too.

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You know, we had Alex Heath on 
while you were out, Eric. 

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And you know, I, I like Alex a 
lot. 

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He's an amazing, amazingly well 
sourced. 

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Supporter. 
You can go read his newsletter. 

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Yeah, go read sources and his 
podcast is called Access. 

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But he was, you know, very, I, I
thought a little bit too, I 

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think a little, a little too 
credulous on the fact that ads 

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is going to be a big business 
for, for open. 

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AII think actually ads is going 
to be very difficult for them 

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because ads rely on proof of 
concept and proof of success and

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also linking out and clicking 
out. 

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And it's sort of proved that 
this stuff does not link out 

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very well. 
So why would you want? 

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I'm shopping for all my 
Christmas gifts in Shia GBT. 

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I don't agree. 
Well, anyway, this is a 

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different discussion. 
I just think it's going to be 

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complicated for them. 
I don't think it's a done deal 

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and I, I worry for them if I 
were an investor, which is 

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increasingly everyone basically,
you know, VCs on upwards that 

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like they are going to lose 
focus and what they're trying to

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win on is like increasingly 
competitive. 

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And, and that to me is more like
the red alert than like Chachi 

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BT is losing customers or 
something like that. 

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It's just like what matters and 
what doesn't matter and should 

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be doing should we be doing 
everything? 

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And I would be, I know we'll get
to predictions in a later 

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episode, but I wouldn't be 
surprised if in the next year or

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two you start seeing open AI 
dropping some of these ambitions

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that something like the browser 
just sort of goes away. 

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It's not that necessary or I 
don't know. 

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I really don't have a lot of 
bullishness on the Johnny Eye of

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hardware project. 
I think that is going to be 

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expensive and and difficult, but
that's that's where I would be 

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worried about them. 
If you're selling Tam, you need 

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to be able to do everything. 
I mean, there's some valued 

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opening eye and just being ready
if a category appears promising 

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that they can lean in. 
It's like, oh, coding is big, 

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we'll lean into that. 
So you have projects sort of 

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spinning. 
Yeah, I don't know. 

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The piece that stuck out to me 
with all of this too, is that 

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each iteration of the startup 
boom, whether we should be 

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looking at applications or 
foundation models and how do we 

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build out products and how do 
the large labs also build out 

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products? 
Every time a new model comes 

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out, like this junior Gemini 
model, the race is totally 

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reset. 
So all of the people that I 

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think have talked about, you 
know, will foundation models 

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ever be the Moat? 
The answer seems to be no again,

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as it just keeps climbing and 
chasing back and forth. 

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And every few months we get a 
new model that tops the 

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leaderboard and then opening 
eyes back at the top and then 

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Google's back at the top. 
So it's not that I don't think I

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would count them out at all. 
Obviously I think it's still too

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early, but it just becomes a lot
trickier to see, you know, can 

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you be the everything company 
when the everything company 

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already exists? 
Like you need to figure out 

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applications beyond ChatGPT that
work because you will not get 

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the Moat with foundation models 
like this. 

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Race seems like it's nowhere 
near done. 

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Which is why I think ads feels 
like heart before the horse in 

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that, yeah, opening eye, ChatGPT
needs more more clear designed 

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applications before just, I 
don't know, going into 

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monetization. 
I want to say 1. 

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I guess my last word on this is 
I do think it's it speaks to the

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power of truth that open AI is 
saying code red. 

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I do think there's value in 
shaping your company's narrative

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and just saying, yeah, we're 
we're in a hard place because it

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undercuts the media and the 
commentary. 

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And just like Twitter and 
regular people would all be 

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like, oh, open AI is in trouble 
because of Gemini. 

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But when you say, oh, it's a 
code red, we're in big trouble, 

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then you lower the bar for 
yourself. 

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So maybe it hurts your 
reputation, but instead of 

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having to fend off like, oh, 
Google, are they better than 

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you, you say, yeah, we're we're 
really needing to work hard. 

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And so then everything you do to
sort of be slightly better than 

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a Code Red is now a positive 
again. 

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And so I think there's a lot of 
value in just, you know, 

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communication strategy and 
lowering expectations for 

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yourself so that you can much 
more easily slip over them. 

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If you think entirely through 
narratives, then you're setting 

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yourself up for your comeback. 
You're setting yourself up for 

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like, we, we, we girded down and
now everything is great. 

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And we, we, we the same way 
Google sort of did when they had

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their code red and and now 
everyone's, you know, 

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celebrating them. 
So genius move by Sam Altman, 

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where we we applaud you tip of 
the cap for your great decision 

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to call yourself a cap. 
I don't. 

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Think Google's as savvy about 
the PRI. 

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Think they're just just building
and trying. 

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I think Sam is very aware of, 
you know, how the narrative is, 

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is consumed. 
Yeah, cool. 

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Yeah. 
Well, fun to talk about this 

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more next week or whatever when 
we do our prediction. 

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Yeah. 
We're gonna do predictions. 

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We're gonna have superlatives. 
I think it's gonna be a fun end 

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of the year for the newcomer 
podcast where it's trying to 

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split up segments so that you 
can listen to the things you're 

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interested in. 
We're super. 

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Hopefully you're watching this 
on YouTube. 

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If you're listening on the 
podcast, we're we're working 

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hard on our YouTube channel. 
So go subscribe on YouTube, 

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please like comment, we're we're
a small channel. 

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I'll come in and reply to your 
comments. 

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If they're not, they're not too 
mean. 

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So we appreciate all the 
support. 

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And of course, you know, we're 
at newcomer.co. 

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We write a sub stack about 
stripes and venture capital. 

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00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,760
And, you know, if you want to be
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early, maybe you like to buy 
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