1 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,920 Welcome to the AI draft on the Cerebral Valley Podcast. 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:10,600 I'm Eric newcomer. We've got a probably my favorite 3 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:12,560 episode of the year coming up for you. 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:17,040 We're about to pick what we think will be the most valuable 5 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,520 AI companies in four years from now. 6 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:23,040 This is a follow up from our draft a year ago, but we'll 7 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,480 catch you up on everything that happened last year. 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,280 We'll be picking a bunch of new companies. 9 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,760 I'm here with the James Will Sturman. 10 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,680 Hey, Eric, happy to be here. Excited for the draft? 11 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,400 James is the the brain behind the draft. 12 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,640 He'll explain it in a second. And Max Child. 13 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:41,080 Hello. Hello. 14 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:47,240 Super excited. We a very contentious game of 15 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:52,080 forecasting the top companies in AI ahead of the Cerebral Valley 16 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,160 AI Summit on November 20th in San Francisco. 17 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,760 This is our way of thinking about all the top companies in 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:03,520 AI before we host the AI Insider event of the year. 19 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,680 All that said, James, do you want to tell everybody the rules 20 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,400 so they know why and how we're operating here? 21 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,200 Buckle in. It's a complicated set of rules, 22 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,600 so I will try to go through them efficiently. 23 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:22,640 If you recall from last year, some of you may have listened to 24 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:27,840 that episode, we drafted teams. As Eric said, we drafted the top 25 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:32,400 private companies in AI. We're all looking to create a 26 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:38,120 team of companies that by the end of 2028, will have the 27 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:42,160 highest value on either sort of a private market valuation, an 28 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,080 exit or an IPO. So just to caveat a few 29 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:50,600 different rules there, last year we each drafted 5 teams. 30 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,800 And in order to get the 1st pick, we agreed that you'd have 31 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,960 to take a big handicap because there was such an outlier pick 32 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,880 with Open AI last year. So we agreed that Eric, by 33 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:06,040 drafting Open AI first, would have to take a $75 billion 34 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,000 handicap. Auction for that so I I paid the 35 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,280 most the right. How are you feeling about that 36 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,000 decision in retrospect? Excellent genius, I'm dominating 37 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,400 right now. Yeah, Eric's team's looking 38 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:20,600 really good. We'll get into that in a minute. 39 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,680 A couple other rules. You have to be on this list at 40 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,160 all. To be a one of the companies 41 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,760 that you can draft, you have to have raised over $100 million. 42 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,360 Fortunately, a lot of AI companies have raised well 43 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,920 beyond $100 million. It's a long list. 44 00:02:34,920 --> 00:02:37,680 Very short amount of many. Companies we have never heard 45 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,080 of. It's a quite, quite a long list. 46 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:45,360 Many of them I haven't heard of, heard from since, but they they, 47 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,680 they have raised over $100 million. 48 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,480 A couple other rules. You have to have had a core use 49 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:55,280 of generative AI or other generative AI infrastructure use 50 00:02:55,280 --> 00:03:00,000 cases within your product. However, we're excluding certain 51 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,600 industries as well. So if you're purely a bio 52 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,440 healthcare industry, AI provider, a defense provider, 53 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,440 silicon chips infrastructure provider, you know, such as core 54 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,560 Weave or Lambda Labs, we're also excluding you from this draft 55 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:17,160 robotics and a VS as well. We're not drafting Waymo, we're 56 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,560 not drafting crews and other AV companies. 57 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,600 And we're also excluding a couple companies that are just 58 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,680 purely based in China. We don't seem to know much about 59 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,960 them and and that makes it hard to draft them. 60 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,200 And then, yeah, you have to have been founded within the last 10 61 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,440 years. So before, you know, excluding a 62 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,560 couple companies that maybe have a generative AI story, but they 63 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,600 were founded before 2013 or 2014. 64 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:45,720 And then lastly, this year there will be a way to add and drop 65 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,360 companies. So you can actually decide in 66 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,000 advance of this podcast recording whether you want to 67 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,480 drop one of your companies of your team. 68 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,600 You can pick up new companies off of waivers. 69 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,600 If you've ever played fantasy football, you'll be familiar 70 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,560 with that concept. And then we also will extend the 71 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,240 teams a little bit this year. So we're keeping our teams from 72 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,040 last year, but we're adding two slots each to the team. 73 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:12,560 So you'll have opportunity to at least draft two more companies 74 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,200 for your team. How's that sound, guys? 75 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,880 Great, great. I emphasize, and I think you 76 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:21,320 said this, but like the goal here is to get the highest total 77 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,320 sort of market cap on your team. It's not like a return on your 78 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:26,160 investment. So there's definitely an 79 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:30,400 incentive to buy highly marked companies if you think you know 80 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,040 there's still room to grow. But even if there isn't, you 81 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,120 know, they may, it may be strategic to pick a maximally 82 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:38,880 valued company. The other thing I want to say is 83 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,120 play along at home. Comment on the post with your 84 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:43,960 picks. Obviously you have the advantage 85 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,800 of not competing with anyone else, but there are still so 86 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,680 many companies that it's a challenge to come up with your 87 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,040 What's going to be the total number of companies we each have 88 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:54,920 by the end of this, James? Seven. 89 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,920 Yeah, seven each by the end of this. 90 00:04:57,280 --> 00:05:01,640 Yeah, so pick your 7 and let us know which companies you draft. 91 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,640 Or let us know, you know, what were our genius picks and what 92 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:09,440 were our terrible picks? Who are you reading for, 93 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:10,800 Allison? All genius. 94 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,520 Newcomer subscribers are probably rooting for Newcomer. 95 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:18,120 Are they? I don't know. 96 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:21,040 Maybe they're all rooting against newcomer. 97 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,000 You never know, could be a hate watch. 98 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,120 Revenge for scooping their fundraise. 99 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,240 What else do we need to cover? Anything else? 100 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,920 All right, so a lot of rules, but we know there are a lot of 101 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,160 nerds on here who want to make sure, understand the strategy 102 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,200 behind it and follow along very closely. 103 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,160 So those are the rules. And now we get to the fun part 104 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,240 and make our picks. Give it a listen. 105 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,320 This episode is presented by Brex, the financial stack that 106 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:50,720 founders and VCs can truly bank on. 107 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,200 Imagine what your founders could do with their runway if they had 108 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:58,200 a banking solution that had no minimums, no transaction fees, 109 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,080 and 20 times the standard FDIC protection. 110 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,600 Plus they could earn an industry leading yield while maintaining 111 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:09,280 access to funds whenever needed. Brex simplifies financial 112 00:06:09,280 --> 00:06:12,400 services for startups so they can focus on building. 113 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,280 Connect your portfolio to the financial stack that one in 114 00:06:15,280 --> 00:06:18,200 three US venture backed startups already use. 115 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:23,640 Check out brex.com/banking Dash solutions. 116 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:30,920 The draft started out strong with a big pick from Eric Open 117 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,960 AI, but he had to take a handicap on that so he had to 118 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,520 sacrifice 7 to. Guarantee that I would have the 119 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:41,320 right to pick open AI, and I've been extremely validated by that 120 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,960 already. Yeah. 121 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,360 So you took a $75 billion handicap off of your own total 122 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,480 score. And by the way, this draft ends 123 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:55,080 on in November 2028. However, you, Eric, have also 124 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:59,920 had some exits or semi exits, both inflection and character AI 125 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,040 semi exited. We've decided to award you their 126 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:07,240 valuations at the time of exit. Do you want to talk about that 127 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:11,440 nuance for the listeners? A key subplot of this year has 128 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:16,080 been sort of the licensing deals Aqua hire somewhat exit. 129 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,960 Basically, leadership at a company gets bought shareholder, 130 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,920 you know, the acquirer sort of acquirer pays the company that 131 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,600 start up a big licensing fee, then the startup uses that money 132 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,600 to buy out the share, the preferred shareholders, 133 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,880 basically wiping the cap table. So it's a weird, the company 134 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:39,240 still exists, but the investors got paid out and the 135 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,160 leadership's gone. And so you know, I think the 136 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,040 logic we came to agree on was that these were effectively 137 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,640 exits for the investors and therefore you should be able to 138 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,360 cash out. So the the licensing deals 139 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:56,960 character which I think we're putting at 2.5 billion 140 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,400 inflection. Around 1:00. .4 what James you 141 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,400 had adept. Yeah, at around a billion. 142 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,120 Yeah. And tech, I don't. 143 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,080 I guess in the abstract you could rebuy those companies, 144 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:12,080 though. We've also put in the 145 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,080 requirement that companies need to have raised $100 million. 146 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,920 Are we allowing rebuys of these? I'm never going to rebuy any of 147 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:18,760 them to. Be clear. 148 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,240 I don't think we should. I don't think we should allow 149 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,920 rebuys because like you said to us, the, I believe reported that 150 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,200 the cap tables were kind of completely wiped out. 151 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,760 So these companies haven't, the new shells of the former 152 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:33,960 companies haven't really raised $100 million yet. 153 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:35,600 So they're no longer part of the draft. 154 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,559 Your other companies are doing quite well. 155 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:43,480 So yeah, Open AI reportedly raised $157 billion evaluation. 156 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,800 Glean raised an E round at a $4.5 billion evaluation. 157 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:54,520 Mistral also raised the B round around $6 billion. 158 00:08:55,400 --> 00:09:00,800 So your total including the $75 billion handicap is roughly 159 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:06,000 around 100 billion right now, 96.4 So you are way ahead of Max 160 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:11,800 and I Max had Data Bricks, Pine Cone, Cohere, Modular games, and 161 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,000 Imbue. Using to value Data Bricks by 162 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,000 because it hasn't raised a new round since. 163 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,640 But like Data bricks, is an extremely valuable company, so 164 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,160 Max is worth at least half of what I am by. 165 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:24,920 There's no way. So. 166 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:27,600 Thank you. Thank you, Eric. 167 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,320 I appreciate the defense of my honor here because the 168 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,720 spreadsheet says my total value is 5 compared to your 96. 169 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:39,560 So yeah, it's like I was like, is this just going to be a dump 170 00:09:39,560 --> 00:09:42,200 on Maxfest? Because database still looks 171 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,920 pretty good to me, Yeah. You just, you, you need to get, 172 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,800 you need to get a new fundraise to get to get points on the 173 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,960 board. But I agree you're still still 174 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,840 holding strong. But your only points on the 175 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:57,880 board would be Cohere, which raised the Series D and came in 176 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:02,640 at about 5.5 billion. And then my own team, I have 177 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,040 Hugging Face, Anthropic AI 21 Labs, Replit, and Adept. 178 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,560 As we said, Adept kind of exited at that 1 billion mark. 179 00:10:10,560 --> 00:10:15,360 And then Anthropic also did a fundraise in the last year that 180 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:20,200 valued it at a 18.4 billion post money valuation, putting my 181 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,800 current score around 19.4 billion. 182 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:28,560 So yeah, I still have some, I think. 30 to 40 so you'll you'll 183 00:10:28,560 --> 00:10:31,240 get a boost. Yeah, I was gonna say James and 184 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,880 I are kind of in this the same category of like we're around 40 185 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,520 probably because I think data bricks is probably around 40 and 186 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,200 in tropics probably around 40. Yeah. 187 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,920 And so Eric is crushing us in 90 for sure. 188 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,160 Yeah, yeah, sure. My my roster is pretty weak. 189 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,080 I went with the stars and scrubs strategy, except I only have one 190 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,920 star and that is data Bricks, something like 40-40 or fifty. 191 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,440 I have Pine cone Cohere which hung in there at A55AS, James 192 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:58,760 said. I have modular and I have Imbue. 193 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:03,080 The scrubs are still scrubbing pretty hard, so there may be 194 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,040 some foreshadowing about. You biased towards some. 195 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,400 I may do some dropping. You interviewed on stage, which 196 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,920 was perhaps yes. I did go with a personal 197 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:17,520 connection vibes based approach it, it may not have panned out, 198 00:11:17,680 --> 00:11:21,160 but I got data bricks. So I'm arguably still in 2nd 199 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:22,720 place and I will take that, all right. 200 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:27,840 Let's let's go into the drops. So Eric, you freed up two spaces 201 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,120 already with your inflection and character sales. 202 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:32,720 Are you dropping any other companies? 203 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:35,720 I'm not I'm not dropping anything else. 204 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:39,720 I like obviously open AI clean mistrawl. 205 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,360 I'm keeping. I want to say one thing. 206 00:11:41,680 --> 00:11:45,760 You know, I was very bullish, I think impression Lee on opening. 207 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:50,120 I just wrote a bear column on open AI at 157. 208 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,800 Max and James are not giving me a way to like somehow like sell 209 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,840 my current markup so there's no I would never drop. 210 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:02,120 Exit Exeter IPO but. I'm not, I'm not allowed to like 211 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:04,800 lock in where it is and then sort of be short. 212 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,680 I'm still. So you're saying go up, you 213 00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:10,520 would do it up, Okay. I think it'll get marked up. 214 00:12:10,560 --> 00:12:11,360 Got it. But you're just. 215 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,720 Forty, $50 billion. But I'm skeptical beyond that. 216 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,360 Got it. I would say if with open AI this 217 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,280 may be a future debate, but the every new round is getting 218 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:22,920 increasingly bizarre in terms of. 219 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:24,160 Stress. I know, right? 220 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,040 Exactly. I talked to some evaluation, 221 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,920 some investors in the open in open AI round and they're like, 222 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,560 well, we get paid back in two years if they don't grow fast 223 00:12:31,560 --> 00:12:34,760 enough, exactly starting to become like a sort of debt like 224 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,600 structured. I know if I could cash As for 225 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,080 the money it's worth, I'm I would be tempted, but I want to 226 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,920 be able given I'm keeping it, I'm keeping it with pride and 227 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,080 I'm going to pat myself in the back if I if I. 228 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:47,600 Yeah, all with it. All right. 229 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,880 Well, if if the next opening eye round involves like, you know, 230 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,200 collateralized obligations or something like we need to start 231 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,520 talking about what evaluation even is at this point. 232 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,080 So. There's a lot of nuance in this 233 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,120 VC game, I think is what we've discovered from this draft. 234 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,400 Who knew? I thought it was easy. 235 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,520 OK, Max, are you dropping anyone from your team? 236 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,240 I I am dropping some of my scrubs. 237 00:13:14,680 --> 00:13:16,280 Sad. I will yeah. 238 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,480 RIP Max's team. I will. 239 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,720 I was honestly considering dropping everyone except data 240 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:27,880 breaks, but I decided to dial it back from that approach. 241 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,120 I will stick with Cohere given I'm starting Mark leave it 242 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:33,720 found. Yeah, the markup Also, I think 243 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,840 foundational models like are becoming like state level assets 244 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,520 and potentially like Canada will want their own foundational 245 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,520 model. You know, like safe super 246 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:44,680 intelligence might be like Israel's foundation model. 247 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,640 So I'll keep I'll keep Cohere and I will keep modular because 248 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,600 I still ride with my boy Chris Ladner. 249 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,640 You know, it might not workout, but he's trying to create a new 250 00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:57,200 language. Yeah, OK. 251 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,840 Yeah. So I will be dropping pine cone 252 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:02,840 and Imbue pine cone. I went kind of back and forth 253 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,680 on, but I, yeah, I the whispers in the VC circles. 254 00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:10,520 I, I roll in quite regularly. We're not very positive and 255 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,440 stole volume. So there's a little imbue. 256 00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:16,520 Stole stole Volley's office, which. 257 00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:18,240 You think is a possible sign they've got a lot? 258 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,880 Of kids to go around. Yeah. 259 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,240 Yeah. Outside of the bad blood on the 260 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:24,840 office front, Eric, would you agree? 261 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:26,600 Imbue. Not a lot going on since I 262 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:27,320 picked up. I haven't heard. 263 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,920 I haven't really heard the radar as much, yeah. 264 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,960 So either they're working on the greatest takeover the world 265 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,960 strategy ever, you know, or there's not a lot going on 266 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:37,120 there. So I'll go without a lot going 267 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:38,520 on. I'm dropping those two pine cone 268 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,440 in view it. I wish I could say it was fun, 269 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:42,720 but it wasn't really. All right. 270 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:47,800 All right, an upward. My team, I'm feeling good about 271 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:49,480 Anthropic. As we've said, I think you know, 272 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,600 even in the last year we've seen a lot of kind of progress in 273 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:57,360 terms of catching up to open AI in the closed model race and a 274 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,480 lot of success with their specifically their coding 275 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,840 capabilities and enterprise adoption. 276 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,400 So very excited about Anthropic Hugging Face as well. 277 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,760 Still I would say core player in the space. 278 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,440 So I'm keeping them. I was decided to drop AI 21 279 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,920 labs. They essentially have an open 280 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,600 source model, but it seems pretty behind other open source 281 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:23,520 providers And they, you know, their claim to fame is a lot to 282 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,880 do with the context windows and the kind of inference time. 283 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,760 But I think that is getting a little bit commoditized as we've 284 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,600 discussed in in earlier segments here. 285 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:39,000 So dropping them I was debating reblet but I've decided to keep 286 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:40,600 them on my team. Reblet. 287 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,560 Keeping Reblet, Yeah, that was an interesting, yeah. 288 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:44,960 It was. Give us the case for why you're 289 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:46,480 keeping reblet here. Yeah. 290 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,000 Yeah, so coding, so reblet. Coding is hot reblet. 291 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:55,000 If I were starting as an engineer again, I would probably 292 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,000 be using them. I think that it is the best way 293 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,880 to get started coding. They have a vision of, you know, 294 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:05,560 empowering like billions of billions of creators to create 295 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,240 applications. I think it's a little bit of 296 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,320 like a long run or a high upside bet. 297 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,720 And I still think it's the right. 298 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,080 They have product market fit. They have customers that have 20 299 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,040 million users or something. They're working on AI agents. 300 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:25,440 They're really in the mix. I hear about them a lot, even on 301 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:30,400 X, so I think there's, yeah, there's still some upside. 302 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,200 To be had there, they're good. It was a tough call out. 303 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,200 There. Prominent FX Yes, I was can. 304 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,640 I is that my take? My contrarian take here, well, 305 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,360 not contrarian at all, but contrarian to you apparently is. 306 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:46,720 I think what we learned about the first year is we are not in 307 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,200 the Unicorn hunting business. We're in the deck of horn 308 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,880 hunting business because nothing shows up on this chart other 309 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:57,080 than the the $10 billion plus evaluations right you guys 310 00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:01,480 congratulations you had X like 1234 billion whatever Yeah, 311 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,680 exactly. Well, I think real VC is if 312 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,800 you're a CVC you can be in the Unicorn business. 313 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,800 But we're we appear we're basically gross stage VC is 314 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:10,599 we're 100 million minimum. So we're. 315 00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,000 And we're able to get in like $3 billion. 316 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:19,000 Yeah, I, I just I'm yeah, right. So I'm not, I'm just not sure. 317 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:20,480 I don't. I'm not sure I see the path to 318 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,359 deca corn for replit. How? 319 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:24,920 How would you see that for modular? 320 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,640 Explain the deca. For modular, OK, here's the Deca 321 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,960 corn case for modular. Modular replaces CUDA as the 322 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,840 core language for how you code and gets bought by like, you 323 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,480 know, AMD or ARM or something as like the way you code on non 324 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,600 NVIDIA chips. And there's so much demand for 325 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,600 getting off NVIDIA, not paying Jensen absorbent fees that 326 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,840 there's huge value in having an alternate AI coding ecosystem. 327 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,040 So there you go. That's what I believe. 328 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,520 Look, I think, I think it's a very asymmetric upside bet where 329 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,840 it would probably be worth nothing in 90% of cases. 330 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,440 But I like my 10% upside case and I'd be interested in your 331 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,760 10% upside case for repple. Like give me the deca corn. 332 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:07,960 Repple it's it's basically that that becomes how everyone learns 333 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:12,480 to code the number of engineers, the number of engineers in the 334 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,160 world. Seven, I mean, that's there's 335 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,640 no, you know, everyone codes in the world like the. 336 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,320 I think it'd be good. You didn't let me finish. 337 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,000 I think that, I think that, you know, let's say you have 338 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,960 essentially hundreds of millions or billions of engineers in the 339 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,480 world, Like it becomes, you know, the spreadsheet or 340 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,160 something, right, coding. Everyone became like a sort of 341 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:40,920 an engineer in the PC era through spreadsheets, but maybe 342 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,120 that maybe true built application building becomes 343 00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:45,960 like a core part of people's knowledge workers jobs in the 344 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:47,720 future. And yeah, maybe it becomes a 345 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,280 true platform for that. Or there's a bit more of like a 346 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,640 consumer take, I guess where, you know, somehow creating these 347 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:57,240 applications becomes, you know, part of social network type 348 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:58,880 experience. But yeah, I, I think it's a, 349 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:00,840 it's a stretch, but it's, it's possible. 350 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:05,720 I think it looks like we all have 4 spots to fill given our 351 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,840 drops and our new slots. So we're gonna pick up exactly 352 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,600 where we left off the snake draft. 353 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:17,080 I had the last pick of the draft last year with Adept at #15 so 354 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:23,120 it'll be my pick coming in hot with draft pick #16 and then 355 00:19:23,120 --> 00:19:25,600 we'll snake draft from there to Max and Eric. 356 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,480 So yeah, my, my pick. I don't think this will come as 357 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,920 much of a surprise, but I'm picking Xai, which has been 358 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:39,640 rumoured to be raising at a $40 billion evaluation, did. 359 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,680 You give it an extra premium for being anti woke AI. 360 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,120 Well, Eric, they told me that they were. 361 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:47,560 Yeah. They're going to take over the 362 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:48,840 world. So very, very, very. 363 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,040 Really. Boosted, Yeah. 364 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,480 It's a good figure. Obvious pick. 365 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,000 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think it's a good pick. 366 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:02,040 I think they spun up I think 100,000 H one hundreds in the 367 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,200 last four month months, which Jensen himself said it wasn't 368 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,960 possible. But but then according to Elon, 369 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,760 they've done it. They're they're they appear to 370 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,880 be like. Trucking in gas powered 371 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:19,040 generators to power this thing they have, they're just going as 372 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,800 fast as possible I think, which is pretty, pretty compelling and 373 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,680 kind of what you need to do to be a foundation model competitor 374 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,480 in the environment today. So yeah, don't short Elon, I 375 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,040 guess. And they have that Twitter. 376 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:33,960 In which case you probably should have shorted Elon, but 377 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,280 yeah, yeah. That's. 378 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,440 AI AI does feel like more of a hardware problem and an energy 379 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,920 problem than like a more social. Networking problem so more in 380 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,680 his wheelhouse yeah, right. I think and maybe X AI helps 381 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,720 Twitter yeah, maybe. I don't know yeah. 382 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,480 I think like, I think or vice versa. 383 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,920 I think it's, you know, kind of an interesting. 384 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,560 I, I'm actually very intrigued by how that works from a 385 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,480 business perspective, like because the current only product 386 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:04,240 of XAI is this Croc chatbot that's available only in X 387 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,320 Twitter. So I I don't know how this looks 388 00:21:07,360 --> 00:21:10,160 as a partnership long term, maybe they become the same 389 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,840 company or something, but this feels like a good pick to me. 390 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,440 I think it's the obvious first pick. 391 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,480 I think the short case is. It's like the third best model 392 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,800 right now, but the long case is Elon's good at bending the laws 393 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,400 of physics, and AI is mostly a laws of physics problem in some 394 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,360 ways with yeah chips. And recruiting and get it 395 00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:30,360 raising fundraising. Yeah, great. 396 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:31,600 Sure, totally. Yeah, he's. 397 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:32,960 Yeah. All right. 398 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,360 Max, you're up next with the next pick of the draft. 399 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,000 I will take kind of the obvious second pick set up. 400 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,840 Eric whining about how his open AI first pick screwed him. 401 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:49,560 For this redraft, I'll take Scale AI, which is far and away 402 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,680 the second most valuable open slot on the board. 403 00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:56,640 They just raised to 14 billion. They provide data labeling 404 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,640 services to a bunch of different AI companies. 405 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,920 I think what's interesting about Scale is they are very 406 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,280 polarizing in Silicon Valley. I would say a lot of people have 407 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,240 joked for many years that they're just a like sort of 408 00:22:10,360 --> 00:22:15,800 random third world worker, like Mechanical Turk business where 409 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,720 they offload a bunch of menial tasks to people in cheap 410 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:24,760 countries. But on the other hand, they 411 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,440 basically like 4X revenue in the last year, some crazy thing from 412 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,480 like 1 to 4 billion. And so if I'm getting at this at 413 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,480 like 3X revenue, I'm feeling pretty good. 414 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,840 And I, yeah, I mean, the lesson of the last draft is you gotta 415 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,440 gotta ride the horses that are winning. 416 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,080 And this is a clear #2 right now. 417 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:47,560 So I'll grab scale somewhat conflicted about whether or not 418 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:52,120 it's a long term multi deca corn, but you know, can't not 419 00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:54,200 take the the only other ten billion. 420 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,200 Plus so the data piece of the AI puzzle, which we talked the 421 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,600 least about but couldn't. Right, yes, there. 422 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,200 Yeah, we haven't really weighed in on the take that data, you 423 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:08,160 know, quality of data is long run a huge piece of the puzzle 424 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:13,320 maybe equally or you know, as important as as chips and 425 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,040 compute and scale and energy and so on. 426 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,480 Because there's a lot of garbage data out there and especially we 427 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,360 just scrape the whole Internet and you don't have good stuff, 428 00:23:20,360 --> 00:23:23,320 you maybe won't get a good AI or same with, you know, imagery or 429 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,240 video or whatever. So that's the scale case. 430 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,200 The scale short case, as I said, is that oddly enough it's 431 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,240 business might be very automatable by AI in some ways. 432 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,240 So yeah, that's my take. And we have the CEO joining us 433 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,240 at the conference. Yes, we have CEO and Eric, I'm 434 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:39,800 sure we'll ask him some hard questions. 435 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,160 So it'll be fun. I'm excited. 436 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,920 It'll be fun. I'm up. 437 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,520 Eric, you're up. Yes. 438 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,960 You get 2 picks. 2 picks, 2 picks. 439 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,880 OK. I think the first one is what 440 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,840 you guys would pick partially hidden on the stock because it's 441 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,040 valuation increase. I think it's only reported and 442 00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:00,800 not locked in, but I'm picking perplexity. 443 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,120 Smart. Yeah, I mean. 444 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:10,120 Bad. Highest chance of disrupting 445 00:24:10,120 --> 00:24:12,880 Google search. I do think a lot of investors 446 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:17,600 are very excited about it even though it you know as a reporter 447 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,760 it gets me a little annoyed with their seeming story RIP offs. 448 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:25,000 I do like the attribution philosophy and excited to see 449 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,520 them continue to develop. I did not realize I was going to 450 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,720 get to back-to-back. Can I get of a genuine 451 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:34,120 perplexity short case like? Can you give one or? 452 00:24:34,120 --> 00:24:35,080 Can I give one? Yeah. 453 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:36,960 Can I? Can I actually critique this? 454 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:39,600 Picks, isn't it? Next week, yeah. 455 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,880 Yeah, I just think if you look at the data, like if you look at 456 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,160 App Annie or you look at any of the open, you know, data 457 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,440 services that tell you how much usage perplexity has, it's like 458 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,560 shockingly small. It's like really, really not 459 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,240 that popular. It's very popular among nerds on 460 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,760 Twitter, which is a perfect overlap with venture capital. 461 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,960 I know there's this hot take that it's gonna disrupt Google 462 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:08,680 or whatever, but you know, most people are pretty just used to 463 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,040 typing in the search box that's on their browser, that's either 464 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,720 on their iPhone or on their computer, and that's going to be 465 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,160 Google forever and ever because they have the money to buy that 466 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,600 box from Apple. According to the information, by 467 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,480 the way, they have 20 million ARR. 468 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:22,960 Is that surprising? Based on what? 469 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,560 You're, no, I mean, I think like, you know, they probably 470 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,040 have a couple million Mau, you know, somewhere between 2:00 and 471 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,440 5:00. And you're monetizing those 472 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,960 people, you know, reasonably effectively, but not crazily 473 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,680 effectively. So that's a ballpark, you know. 474 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,120 Yeah. So let's say they have 5 million 475 00:25:35,120 --> 00:25:39,400 Mau or whatever, Google has like 2 billion Mau or something, or I 476 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,200 don't know. It's it's, you know, it's 1000 477 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:42,640 times bigger or five and it's free. 478 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:43,560 Or something I know. Yeah. 479 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,960 And it's free. Yeah. 480 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,840 So I just, I just would say, like, I'm not convinced the 481 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,720 differential against Google's AI summaries or whatever is going 482 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,400 to stay there for very long. A bunch of people gonna RIP off 483 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,560 their interface innovations and I don't really see how they're 484 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,160 going to get a distribution advantage. 485 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,360 So yeah, I'm, I'm definitely short at whatever the what's the 486 00:26:04,360 --> 00:26:05,640 latest valuation like 10 or something? 487 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,960 It's reported 8 billion eight. Yeah, I'm I'm short at 8 for 488 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,600 sure. I'm I'm probably long at like 1 489 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,480 or I don't know but I'm I'm short at. 8 The next Google 490 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,200 we'll see no. I just think that I think that's 491 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:18,880 an overrated take. Yeah, I'm sorry. 492 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:21,680 I. Eric, who are you picking you? 493 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,200 Know I went all over the place. I certainly have companies down 494 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:30,600 bit lower on the valuation list that I'm probably more amped 495 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,840 about. I thought about Sierra, like 496 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:39,920 customer support being sort of a promising area where I could 497 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,960 actually get deployed. But just looking at my strategy, 498 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,680 like we're going for big ones. You got to go with the guy who 499 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,760 was the genius behind open AI that could either lead research 500 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,240 at another company, could invent AGI, VMS AGI. 501 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,880 I'm going to win like, so I'm going safe super intelligence. 502 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,800 Ilya, I'm betting on you. And then obviously, I mean, 503 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,200 Daniel Gross is, you know, one of the most connected people in 504 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,680 Silicon Valley these days. Music Co founder. 505 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,920 That's what I'm going with. Yeah, Yeah. 506 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,760 For the record, I thought that was where you were going to say 507 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,680 the obvious next pick was because that's definitely I 508 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,960 would have taken injuries. Why would you get? 509 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:16,680 Why are you guys so excited about this company? 510 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,800 I'm I'm short like. You're short, right? 511 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,560 I guess as an as an owner of XAI you. 512 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,200 You believe in dangerous super intelligence. 513 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,240 You're like, you're like now. I don't know. the Super 514 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,160 intelligence has to be dangerous to be valuable. 515 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,120 Like the safe. The safe is no good. 516 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:37,400 I have a balanced diversified strategy of having anthropic and 517 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,600 XAI. Save the world, Kill the world, 518 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,320 Who can go to safety? Give us the short case. 519 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,440 Yeah, What's the short case? Yeah. 520 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:52,960 I just think that, yeah, like I think that he, you're basically 521 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,520 basing this off of, you know, a billion dollar evaluation and he 522 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,560 can create a new foundation model, right? 523 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,480 I think that's the only explanation for why this is 524 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,040 important and and it just feels like he's so far behind. 525 00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:06,800 All right. So my pro safe super 526 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:12,000 intelligence take here to stand behind Eric is I think that 527 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,320 these foundation models are becoming so expensive that their 528 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,760 borderline have to be nationalized in the next like 529 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,240 two to four years. And I think safe super 530 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,480 intelligence is basically going to be Israel's national model, 531 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,080 at which point, you know, I don't know if that how that 532 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:27,840 impacts the valuation. And we could debate that a 533 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,320 couple years down the road. But fundamentally, like it's 534 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,920 going to be a nation state level concern to have a really high 535 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,760 quality model. And I think Ilya will probably 536 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:40,720 be the the flag bearer of Israel, which maybe was the AI 537 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,680 21 case for for James a year ago, but they might have lost 538 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,280 out to SSI. So that would be my pro case. 539 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,320 And that's why, yeah, I'm a fan of the pick. 540 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,840 All right, let's keep moving. All right, Max, you're up with 541 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,360 the next pick. Well, Eric kind of foreshadowed 542 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,600 this that I think, you know, a solid option for next pick is 543 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:07,880 Sierra, which is X Salesforce CEO Brett Taylor started a AI 544 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,400 kind of customer support AI company. 545 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,720 You know, I find customer support super boring. 546 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,960 There's like 250 of these fucking companies. 547 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,240 I don't really see any obvious reason these guys are going to 548 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,400 win because I haven't seen the actual product or compared them. 549 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,680 But like any good VC, I'm just riding the heat of all the other 550 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,880 hot VCs being in this company. And everyone I talked to in the 551 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,800 biz is like, this Is it baby Sierra? 552 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,440 Yeah, exactly. Benjamar and Sequoia get me 553 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,800 wrong, baby. It's never lost me money before. 554 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,280 So I'm going to freely admit I know almost nothing about why 555 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,240 this is supposed to be the best of these 200 different customer 556 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,400 support companies and say, take me to the top. 557 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:46,680 Brett Taylor. I love it. 558 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,000 Basically just you're just going with the the VC cred. 559 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,000 Hell. Yeah, OK. 560 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:57,840 I believe in that philosophy. That was my Glean bet last time, 561 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,480 Kleiner and Sequoia. Totally worked. 562 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,640 All right, I will take the next pick of the draft. 563 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:10,440 I guess I got 2 picks here. I think this will be maybe a 564 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,360 slight surprise, but so with the next pick, I'm taking 11 Labs. 565 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,000 Yeah, 11 labs. We are already a customer. 566 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:24,040 They definitely have a lot of product market fit in this voice 567 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,800 cloning and text to speech space. 568 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,280 They seem to have been making moves, I think I alluded to 569 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:36,120 earlier, buying companies that provide consumer applications so 570 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,720 that you could, you know, read articles with these generated 571 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:44,720 voices. They have been, they've released 572 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,680 a lot of new technologies, including more. 573 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,440 Most recently they announced kind of a new agent framework 574 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:55,040 for voice AI applications. They also have a sound effects 575 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:56,640 API. Yeah, they ship a lot of 576 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,760 product. They have a lot of fans in the 577 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,360 developer community. They're taking an eye towards 578 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,720 some consumer applications. So I'm going with 11 lamps. 579 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:14,680 I I'm short 11 lamps. I I just as a customer, I like 580 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,080 the product. It also seems immensely 581 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,200 replicable by the large cloud services. 582 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,440 I think once Lena Khan is no longer blocking acquisitions, it 583 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:27,240 will get bought by AWS or Google or Amazon or Microsoft. 584 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:34,160 All right, And with my next pick of the draft, I'm going to take 585 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,240 runway so all. Right, that was my next. 586 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:39,640 Pick. Really, I would. 587 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,400 I love them. Wow, fascinating. 588 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,600 OK, You think that's a bad pick, Eric? 589 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,480 Yeah, I mean, he was the one at Cerebral Valley New York making 590 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,080 promises that our own AI crowd didn't even believe. 591 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,800 I don't know. And now they're now they're sort 592 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,480 of saying they're in like the video production business 593 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,680 themselves. I don't, I I'm very bullish on 594 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,160 Adobe figuring out what creatives want and monetizing 595 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,000 it. Well, yeah, so no, I'm not. 596 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,880 I just think what we're in the business of the DECA corn 597 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:16,600 hunting runway, the the hype train is why I'm investing in 598 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,200 them here. They said, you know, we'd be 599 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:23,560 creating Oscar winning fully feature length movies, you know, 600 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,440 in two years or something. They told Max that on stage. 601 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:31,480 I think there is a lot of high upside scenarios where video 602 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:36,840 Gen. tools become like a much more interactive medium also, 603 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,160 right. So if you could really generate 604 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,640 video that's photorealistic and and sort of in that low latency, 605 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,680 you can create almost gaming use cases. 606 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,920 There's a lot of like simulation type products they could build 607 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,920 and then there's consumer use cases, just, you know, creator 608 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,640 tools. So they do seem to be the leader 609 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,560 in this important AI video space. 610 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,160 We also haven't seen, you know, open AI launch Sora, even though 611 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,920 that received a lot of, you know, attention when they 612 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,680 announced it. So I don't know super. 613 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,240 Expensive. Yeah. 614 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,240 Do you think Runway is just burning burning capital then or? 615 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,520 I don't know that specifically, I'm just saying if all these 616 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,360 models cost a ton, like video models sound like they're going 617 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:17,080 to be like, you know, so, so cost in terms of. 618 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,120 Yes. And right now, I think, you 619 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,200 know, the main customers of Runway are like a feature length 620 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,600 Hollywood, you know, production studios or maybe like doing, you 621 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:30,640 know, a few like one second clip generations or something to like 622 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,000 fill in part of their films. But I think that, you know, as 623 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,680 cost curves come down, it just opens up a lot of use cases. 624 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,080 But yeah, if cost doesn't come down then maybe it's a bad pick. 625 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,440 I like I like the asymmetric upside bed to take over the 626 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:42,960 world plan. So I'm kind of in. 627 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,320 Should I take the next pick? Yeah, go for it. 628 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:46,480 All right? We're definitely getting into 629 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,400 the harder part of the draft where I think you have to go a 630 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,200 little more wild with a little crazier pick. 631 00:33:52,640 --> 00:34:00,080 I'm gonna take Sakana AI from one of my VC referrals here. 632 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,240 Said this is the hot thing. You should check it out. 633 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:07,040 Apparently, they're literally trying to use AI to automate 634 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,000 fundamental scientific discoveries. 635 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:11,840 Essentially, they're huge in Japan. 636 00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,600 I believe in basically the core mission that it is possible to 637 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,840 make scientific breakthroughs with AI. 638 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,840 And so I don't know, that sounded like an asymmetric high 639 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,400 upside bet. And I'm getting good buzz from 640 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,480 the VC networks. And at this point, it's pretty 641 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:25,840 hard to kind of dig through the draft. 642 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:30,880 So Sakana, welcome to the team. Is it OK if I show my hand and 643 00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:32,639 sort of talk through the four and then picture? 644 00:34:32,639 --> 00:34:33,520 Yeah, sure. I mean, yeah. 645 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:35,760 You're just giving you guys Intel leak. 646 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:37,040 Ideas to us, so it's. All good? 647 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:38,320 Yeah, maybe I won't. No. 648 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,920 No, no, come on. Is it a podcast first or is it 649 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,159 winning first? Do it for the content baby. 650 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,920 All right, I'm debating Thesis 1 is like man, we keep saying it's 651 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:55,159 all about applications. We're bullish on coding and the 652 00:34:55,159 --> 00:34:58,000 other big hyped application category is legal. 653 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:02,240 So Codium is coding, Harvey is legal. 654 00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:05,760 Those are the applications. Cursor is very buzzy, but I'm 655 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,160 not allowed to take it. They haven't raised $100 656 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,000 million. I met an interesting services 657 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,280 legal startup whose name on blank. 658 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,440 Yeah, I'm sorry guy, but I don't think they've raised enough 659 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,000 money. So so that would leave Harvey 660 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,640 and Codium weights and biases. I think is a company that's 661 00:35:21,720 --> 00:35:24,720 that's done well in serving a lot of like the infrastructure 662 00:35:24,720 --> 00:35:27,360 layer and could be like a solid company. 663 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,880 Listening to myself, I'm clearly excited about getting hits on 664 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:36,520 coding and law. So I'm gonna take Codium. 665 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,880 I'm gonna take Codium first and then Harvey second. 666 00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:44,640 All right. All right, actions. 667 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,120 What do you think of the Harvey controversy that? 668 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,040 What do you think of the Harvey controversy that. 669 00:35:49,240 --> 00:35:51,840 Well, there's that random tweet that is like vaporware. 670 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,320 You talk to some of the legal startups and they're like, we 671 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,920 don't see them out there, but. Well, I, I've, I've talked to a 672 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,160 couple lawyers and they're like, it's not that great right now. 673 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,880 Now maybe you're like, I'm long models getting better, so it 674 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,640 doesn't matter. They have a better sales force, 675 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:06,680 yadda yadda yadda. But. 676 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:10,160 Both of them I'm betting on the category without knowing a lot 677 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,440 about the culture. You're just basically trying to 678 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,640 grab the leader in a category you believe in. 679 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:15,360 All right. Exactly. 680 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,760 Fair enough. Yeah, I, I think that's a 681 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,800 reasonable thesis. I I do think the buzz that 682 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,720 Harvey is not that great is it seems to have some where there's 683 00:36:24,720 --> 00:36:27,040 smoke, there's fire kind of element to it from from my 684 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,400 research. What makes you so sure that 685 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,000 Kodium is the leader in this category? 686 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,080 Why is there? Here's my other option on this 687 00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,200 list. Well, I don't know. 688 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,240 I'm just, I'm just wondering like what's the evidence of 689 00:36:39,240 --> 00:36:40,560 that? I guess they're. 690 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,760 Just raised enough money to get on the list I guess. 691 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,200 Isn't isn't sure. Isn't magic the same thing? 692 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,400 Kind of or similar. Magic. 693 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,120 Yeah, there's. And obviously cursor hasn't 694 00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:52,520 raised enough, but Magic was like Daniel Gross's play into 695 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,960 that space, right? Yeah, yeah, I've heard of 696 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,360 Kodium. Fair enough. 697 00:36:58,320 --> 00:36:59,600 The end of the draft is tough, man. 698 00:36:59,720 --> 00:37:01,520 I think you're just grabbing ideas here. 699 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,160 I mean, cognition is also codium, to be clear. 700 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,840 Yeah, I could have taken. Yeah. 701 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:08,520 Exactly. Cognition. 702 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,400 Yeah. Poolside is coding source, Scrap 703 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:16,080 is somewhat code related. There's just a lot of coding 704 00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:17,720 companies up here. So I was just curious. 705 00:37:17,720 --> 00:37:21,880 But yeah, yeah, why you went with Codium specifically? 706 00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:23,320 But it's all good. It's all good. 707 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:24,840 It's done. It's done. 708 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,040 Is done. All right, I will. 709 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,080 It's done. What's done is done. 710 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:29,720 The bottom of the draft is tough. 711 00:37:31,720 --> 00:37:36,320 Max your last. My final pick, I will take 712 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:43,560 Hebia, which is sort of like Eric's legal thesis, but for 713 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,520 Excel. In some ways it's sort of like 714 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:52,000 the finance, like private equity, you know, investment 715 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:53,200 banking to some degree, whatever. 716 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,080 Excel, Jackie, AI, basically, I've heard very good things 717 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,960 about the products. It has a, you know, super elite 718 00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,440 investor list with Peter Thiel and Andreessen and everything. 719 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,440 And I actually talked to someone who worked there and they were 720 00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,800 like, this is a pretty sick product. 721 00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,400 And I don't think they were just talking their own book. 722 00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:13,520 So yeah, Hebia AI for Excel jockeys, which I was an Excel 723 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,600 jockey 12 years ago. So that that sounds pretty good 724 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,400 to me. Would never have considered that 725 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:18,120 in my life. It's. 726 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,240 The bottom of the draft. It's the bottom of the draft. 727 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:26,440 You got to take some sleepers, you got to, you got to, you got 728 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:31,400 to have a dream. All right, last pick of the 729 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,000 draft, James. Last pick of the draft, a lot of 730 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,680 companies still on the board. Yeah. 731 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:42,720 So I'll walk you through some that I'm considering kind of a 732 00:38:42,720 --> 00:38:46,200 debate between I guess three companies here. 733 00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,680 Poolside, which I mentioned is another AI powered software 734 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:53,480 development platform. They raised $500 million in a 735 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,000 Series B this month, which I thought was pretty interesting 736 00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:58,280 quantity of. Money. 737 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:03,680 For clear purposes first, theoretically for a foundation 738 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,200 model around trained around coding. 739 00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,080 The other one on my list. Still, I think Eric mentioned 740 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,360 them earlier, they do seem to be kind of a leader in this 741 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,440 developer space where if you wanted to, you know, use open 742 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:22,520 source models and do fine tuning and host them and and have the 743 00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,240 infrastructure for that, they seem to be one of the leaders in 744 00:39:25,240 --> 00:39:27,280 that space. And then the last one would be 745 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:32,640 very much a flyer, which is just World Labs, which is Fei Fei 746 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:36,360 Li's startup, which just raised about 100 million in July at a 747 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,400 $5 billion valuation. So yeah, there's some 748 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:47,840 opportunity there. But I think similar to my bear 749 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,600 case on Safe Super Intelligence, I think I will be rolling that 750 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:55,960 one out. And in terms of going after that 751 00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:59,920 sort of the software space, I think I'm gonna have to pick 752 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,040 poolside. Wow. 753 00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,200 Lots of money they could sell. They could sell for a billion, 754 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:07,360 you know. Exactly just based. 755 00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,160 On the money just. For the cash just to get to. 756 00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:13,080 Lock in the money, you know. I mean, yeah, I don't know. 757 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,120 I don't know what they're, what they're working on. 758 00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:16,960 I hope it's worth. A lot, yeah. 759 00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:23,040 I upset I upset I. Upset yeah should we do some 760 00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:24,680 bring out your dead any picks that we. 761 00:40:25,240 --> 00:40:26,600 We think you should have picked you. 762 00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:27,600 Should have picked. Yeah. 763 00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,400 I mean, I don't know. I'm shocked you didn't pick 764 00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,480 Suno, James. You're just banging on Suno like 765 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,320 every weekend. Suno's a great product. 766 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:38,200 Grab some SUNO stock. I just, I'm very nervous about 767 00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,200 the music industry, having worked with the movie. 768 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,320 Yeah, you. Worked with the music industry. 769 00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:43,280 You. You have some? 770 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:44,600 Yeah. When do we get sort of picking 771 00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,240 volley in this? Like no, you haven't raised. 772 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,200 Next round, we haven't raised. Next round. 773 00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,080 Yeah, Yeah, that'd be good. Yeah. 774 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,920 I think Magic is interesting. I like that as another coding 775 00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:59,760 pick, my VC Whisper source. Hated together. 776 00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,280 Hated together. Oh yeah, OK, I didn't go it 777 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:03,920 together then. Yeah, it's like, I think 778 00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,200 Together's A0 Max, you're behind, so you're doing more. 779 00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,240 High up. Research now I've no yeah I see 780 00:41:10,240 --> 00:41:12,640 like last time I did a lot of research and this time I sort of 781 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,120 just like. Just for it, yeah. 782 00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:15,880 I'm coasting. I'm winning. 783 00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,080 You. Know I'm not yeah, I'm not sure, 784 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,600 but these also ran kind of models we have here. 785 00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,320 I think, you know, Pika is, is you know, the third best video 786 00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:25,920 model. So I'm a little, I'm a little 787 00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:29,080 concerned about that. Cognition's interesting with 788 00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:35,480 Devon, but I guess like seems to be less of a foundation model 789 00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:39,680 play and more of this agentic play, but maybe the hype has 790 00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,520 died down a little bit. It is amazing how just like in 791 00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,360 six months, the hype cycles are just changing so rapidly. 792 00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,920 That stuff, it was just like crazy hot, you know, at our last 793 00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,920 conference or two conferences ago now feels like, oh, that's 794 00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:51,920 tired. You know, they haven't done 795 00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:53,160 anything in eight months or something. 796 00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:53,960 And it's. Like. 797 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,280 OK, well, yeah, the cycle time in the AI industry is just 798 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:04,040 ludicrously short right now. Yeah, cool. 799 00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:05,360 Should we wrap? Should we wrap up our text? 800 00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:11,760 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. OK, just let's let's compile 801 00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:16,320 this quickly. So Eric, your team now consists 802 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,720 of open AI. You banked some money from 803 00:42:19,720 --> 00:42:25,080 inflection and character and you you continued to ride with Glean 804 00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:30,960 and Mistral and then you added two pick or 4 picks to to your 805 00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,320 team. Perplexity. 806 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,560 Great pick I think, but you know, risky as Max said. 807 00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:41,360 Safe, Super intelligence safe Pick safe. 808 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,400 Safe. Safe pick safe. 809 00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:48,200 And super intelligent. Pick safe, super pick Kodium and 810 00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,720 Harvey. How are you feeling, Eric, about 811 00:42:50,720 --> 00:42:52,880 your team? I'm I'm happy, honestly, I 812 00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:59,200 think, you know, I wish I could have gotten X AI, but given what 813 00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,120 was available, I'm I'm happy with my picks. 814 00:43:03,240 --> 00:43:07,520 Max, you dropped a few folks from your team. 815 00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:11,160 You have you kept data bricks cohere and modular and then you 816 00:43:11,240 --> 00:43:22,880 added scale AI high valuation play there you added let's see, 817 00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:24,080 sorry. Sierra. 818 00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:29,320 S s Sakana Sakana and Hebbia yes, I like things that. 819 00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:34,080 End in a apparently. And start with S. 820 00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:36,240 And start with S. Yes. 821 00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:41,280 And then how are you feeling about your team? 822 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,560 I mean, I'm feeling better than last year. 823 00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:48,080 I'm glad I banked scale. So I've got some, some valuation 824 00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,680 games. I still have data breaks. 825 00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,720 I still have scale. I've got some valuation. 826 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,200 You know, I, I, I still think I'm basically running the stars 827 00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,400 and scrubs play here, which which didn't really work last 828 00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,200 time. So other than other than again, 829 00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:04,000 just data breaks. So we'll, we'll see. 830 00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:04,800 We'll see. Yeah. 831 00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:09,200 I'm I'm a little less optimistic perhaps than I was last time 832 00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:13,680 around. And then my team, I have Hugging 833 00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:18,960 Face, Anthropic Replit, I banked some cash from the Adept Amazon 834 00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:24,920 deal and I'm adding XAI with the highest valuation on the board 835 00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:35,040 right now, adding runway, adding 11 labs and adding poolside a 836 00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,240 lot of like sort of foundation models, developer tools. 837 00:44:38,240 --> 00:44:43,640 I think with Anthropic and poolside getting that kind of 838 00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,400 coding play. But also Anthropic has one of 839 00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:52,520 the best, I would say coding LMS right now with Claude, But I am 840 00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:57,920 a very bullish on that. That is, you know, valuable use 841 00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,640 case of this technology. So riding, riding the developer 842 00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,800 tooling ecosystem. You're you're like, you're 843 00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,200 running like the murderer's row of companies I think are 844 00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:12,120 overrated, basically, which probably means I'm wrong. 845 00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,600 And one of them will be like a $200 billion company. 846 00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,080 So yeah. You only did one necessarily 847 00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:18,600 right? You're just like, you're just 848 00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,560 naming them off. You're like, you're like 849 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:24,800 poolside Rep lid 11 Labs. Like, what was the other one 850 00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,000 like? You know, Hugging Face. 851 00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:28,720 Anthropic is great. For the record. 852 00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,440 You know, Anthropic is Immaculate, but you're you. 853 00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:33,200 You. Yeah, you just got a lineup of 854 00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,880 like, Twitter memes that I hate, basically. 855 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:38,880 Just because you feel like they're overvalued or? 856 00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,000 Yeah. I just like, I don't yeah, I 857 00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,440 think overvalued or or just, you know raise too much money in the 858 00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:48,080 case of poolside with no product or or I think the product has a 859 00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:50,560 sort of lack of, you know, large market. 860 00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,680 Would either of you pick what Kodium or Harvey? 861 00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:56,760 Were they on your list anywhere? Well, Harvey was on. 862 00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,880 My. Harvey was on my list. 863 00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,760 Harvey on your hater list? Yeah, yeah, yeah, Harvey was 864 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,360 probably on my hater list. Yeah, so. 865 00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:06,160 In some ways you have. The company to be a little 866 00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,480 polarizing you want. People to be thinking about, 867 00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:09,160 right? Exactly. 868 00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,360 Exactly. Yeah, There's a top of mind. 869 00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,960 I bet the Max anti portfolio is better than my actual portfolio. 870 00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:21,280 So don't worry it's like I need I need the the inverse of my 871 00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:22,280 hater list. We'll probably. 872 00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:23,840 Do better than my. My actual list, I mean, at the 873 00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:27,000 end of the day, I'm still like, really exposed to open AI more 874 00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:28,960 than anything. It's like, yeah. 875 00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,720 Yeah, yeah, maybe. Maybe the whole industry is, 876 00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:35,000 yeah. I mean that. 877 00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,720 That's been the question for. Lt. events just is it really all 878 00:46:38,720 --> 00:46:41,440 just about open AI and still to be seen right? 879 00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:47,480 One update from our overrated, underrated episode. 880 00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,280 Minor correction on one of the revenue figures, Max. 881 00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,120 Yeah, I would say a major correction. 882 00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:58,160 A major correction, but we got the source, we relate what the 883 00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:01,560 source said accurately, all right, it relates outdated. 884 00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,440 All right. To make this clear, the 885 00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,600 Information Special Pro subscription told us that 886 00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,560 Anthropic was making around 100 million in revenue per year. 887 00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:15,960 Apparently CNBC reported that Anthropic is in fact closing in 888 00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,720 on making a billion dollars in revenue a year, which is quite 889 00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:24,560 quite a bit larger and is growing its revenue at basically 890 00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:27,240 10X year on year. So that hundred may have been 891 00:47:27,240 --> 00:47:29,360 accurate, you know, 910 eleven months ago. 892 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,440 Luckily for James and Eric, they both already look super smart 893 00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:38,240 and they say Anthropic was. Unrelated, much smaller revenue 894 00:47:38,240 --> 00:47:42,920 than it actually has, yes. Max luckily gets to look super 895 00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:47,080 dumb when he said Anthropic was very overrated because I would 896 00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,800 say 10X you're on your revenue growth absolutely justifies a 897 00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:55,080 crazy 1/3 of open AI valuation. Interestingly, I stand by my 898 00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:58,080 take that their consumer app growth is not that impressive. 899 00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:01,760 I think it was 20% in the last quarter because it looks like 900 00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,640 basically all the revenue comes from their API and their sort of 901 00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,760 developer tools. All right, So that's a minor 902 00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:11,880 update on our overrated, underrated episode, keeping 903 00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,320 ourselves honest, and we'll let you know if there's any new 904 00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:17,480 information that comes to light after these episodes. 905 00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,560 And yeah, reach out to us. You know, you can what? 906 00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,800 e-mail Eric at newcomer.co, probably that's me personally. 907 00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:27,760 And send me your takes Comment. We want more comments. 908 00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:29,480 Yeah, comment on the post with your own opinions. 909 00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:33,400 And certainly happy to. We have very smart listeners, so 910 00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,760 would love to hear where we got it wrong. 911 00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:38,000 Reach out anytime. Thanks so much.