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Hi, I'm Eric Newcomer. 
And I am Madeline Rinbarger. 

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And this is the newcomer 
podcast. 

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Each week, Eric and I discuss 
the VC deals and the drama that 

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went down. 
Let's do it. 

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Here we go. 
Let's dive in. 

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Welcome back to the podcast. 
Happy new Year, Eric. 

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It's our first show of 2025. 
And Silicon Beach is on fire. 

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We're both safe in New York and 
comfy. 

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But it's pretty dystopian images
to start off the new year. 

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Certainly our hearts are with 
everybody in LA. 

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You know, we make everything a 
tech story. 

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So we're like, oh, it's an 
important Tech City. 

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But obviously just a lot of 
friends in LA and it's, it's 

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tragic. 
So excited for these fires to 

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resolve. 
Absolutely. 

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Our heart goes out to our 
friends, you know, both in media

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and in the tech community that 
are being affected even. 

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If you're not in tech, we care 
about what's happening. 

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To you, it's terrible. 
Yes, we we do care. 

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It is. 
It's really. 

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Especially our heart goes out to
you know, but anyway, it's 

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terrible. 
But you know, it's also like, Oh

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my God, what images? 
Yeah, it'll become a 

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disinformation story. 
I do. 

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They're like shouting about 
arson now, which I'm oh, my 

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skeptical. 
Anyway, I don't want it's been. 

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Going around everywhere. 
Yeah. 

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I yeah, don't want to speculate.
You think there's Ars? 

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Yeah. 
I don't know. 

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We'll see. 
I. 

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We'll find out, but regardless, 
it's it's really tough and so 

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our hearts go out to everyone in
the LA area affected by this. 

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Moving on to some different 
news, Waymo has hit parody with 

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Lyft. 
I feel like what's so crazy 

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about being in San Francisco is 
you're like you see these cars 

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and you're like, this is 
happening and the rest of world 

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is like, can self driving 
happen? 

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Yeah, when you're in San 
Francisco and at least for a 

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while when you've been because 
you got the early invite code. 

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So you've known it for a while, 
but it's around, it's happening.

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And at this point, it is just 
the norm at this like it's, it's

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surpassed one of the largest 
rideshare companies in. 

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Classic human emotional 
processing of new technology. 

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We have already moved past Oh my
God, there's self driving cars 

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to I don't know, they're going 
to be a lot of problems and 

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you've been you've been talking 
to some of the Uber crew, the 

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the people who are used to human
negative. 

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But I'm just laughing. 
But well. 

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That's the reporter angle, 
right? 

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Yeah, that's we always have to 
see what could go wrong, but. 

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So what could go wrong? 
I've been talking to some of the

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Uber people who have had a 
little bit of of concerns from 

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their own experience scaling 
Uber in different cities and 

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communities that, you know, know
this first hand that there's 

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things that come in when you 
grow like this. 

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You have, you know, the mass 
adoption of riderships. 

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You hit that pivotal moment. 
But but one thing that you need 

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to look out for always is the 
human element. 

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I mean, there's been an increase
of reports of Waymo's getting 

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trashed. 
Obviously there was Waymo's 

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being set on fire in different 
parts of San Francisco before, 

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but just in general cleanliness 
is an issue if there's not a 

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driver in the car to maintain 
it, you know, how do you monitor

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for that, You know, pro social 
behavior. 

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So that's just one factor. 
Waymo is becoming the ultimate 

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teenage hookup spot and drug 
drug. 

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I was completely private 
chauffeur. 

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That's like, Oh my gosh. 
People dreamed about it. 

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It's like, oh, you can have an 
office, you know, going when 

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you're on a long drive, you have
your own private car. 

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But of course there are lots of 
other things people might want 

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sort of on demand private space 
for. 

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I mean, I think one thing that's
interesting about the Uber 

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people's observations is just, 
you know, Uber obviously has 

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important technology, but in 
some ways the company succeeded 

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with operational excellence. 
That meant dealing with 

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regulators, but it also meant 
figuring out where the cars 

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could park and what what zones 
people could go into and how 

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they should handle sports, you 
know, like the baseball game 

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ending and everything, 
everything in between. 

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And so I think the message here 
is, OK, you figured out San 

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Francisco in sort of neat little
zones when you're only letting 

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the elites on who are very 
studious about and very, you 

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know, it's on Team Waymo. 
Yeah, exactly. 

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You let the family on. 
Your team and so now the next 

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step is when you when you open 
it up even wider. 

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There's lots of new factors that
you have to you know, control 

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for or not control for and 
figure out a way to deal with in

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conversations with some people 
adjacent to the Uber world. 

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One thing I found interesting 
was is how the Waymo fleets that

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are you know, launching in 
Austin and Atlanta later this 

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year are really partnering with 
Uber. 

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Uber is maintaining who's pretty
much controlling the 

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infrastructure for that. 
And so I wonder if we'll see, 

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you know, more of these 
partnerships out of necessity 

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crop up at least in the near 
future is self driving. 

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That's clear. 
That's clearly a story Uber 

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wants. 
I mean, you know, they, they 

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want Waymo to be like, Oh my 
God, this is going to be such a 

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headache. 
Let's let's hand this over. 

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I think, you know, Waymo is in 
the power position. 

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They've got the technology. 
So they can say, all right, and 

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this city will do it. 
And this city, you do it and 

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let's see if you're really so 
much better. 

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So I think that will be an 
interesting experiment to, to 

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run. 
I mean, my question for you is 

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how much do you think this is 
all going to slow down the 

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deployment? 
Because I think the real 

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question is how much of the work
that Waymo did in San Francisco 

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is specific to understanding the
streets of San Francisco versus 

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they now have a playbook to roll
out in other cities. 

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I mean, do you have a point of 
view on that? 

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That's a. 
Good point San Francisco has a 

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pretty unique setup, right? 
It's it's dense, it's narrow, 

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there's not as many, you know, 
factors of constant jaywalking 

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and the degree that you 
experience in a mega city like 

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New York, you know, and I think 
that they'll need to maybe take 

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a play by play city by city 
approach as they go forward. 

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Obviously western cities involve
a lot more highway driving. 

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Self driving around cities is 
one of the hardest hurdles to 

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get across. 
And if you're in other urban 

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environments, especially in 
suburban ones with these self 

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driving trucking companies that 
are popping up for Hwy. driving,

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that'll be a host of different 
problems, but presumably more 

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controllable factors than sort 
of all of the abnormal edge 

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cases that you have to account 
for in city driving. 

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As someone who used to be like 
oh self driving cars are way 

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overhyped, I think these are 
small speed bumps relative to 

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developing the technology. 
I mean first of all. 

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Oh you're bullish. 
Okay, you've done a full you've 

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jumped Yeah, I'm. 
Totally bull. 

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I've been bullish on self 
driving at this point. 

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I mean, I was bearish, you know,
like, I don't know, five years 

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ago, you know, but when Uber was
doing it, I was extremely 

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embarrassed because I saw how 
many interventions they had. 

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Once I was in way MO without a 
driver, I became extremely 

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bullish. 
But but my point is just that, 

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like they can restrict who gets 
on the network, you know, to to 

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worry about the quality. 
You can penalize people. 

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I mean, they're going to they 
have cameras looking in the 

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cars. 
They're going to know exactly 

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what happened. 
They can use AI. 

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To me, the most, the pro Uber 
Lyft case that I believe the 

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most is the sort of liquidity of
the network or this issue of 

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when you actually have to pay 
for what way most cost. 

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And that's what we don't really 
know. 

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Will it make sense to have way 
MO's at the density that you 

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need so that you're ready for 
rush hour traffic versus right 

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now way MO can sort of be we're 
there when we're available and 

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if not, you'll take an Uber, you
know what I mean? 

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They're they're sort of not a 
service that can exist, just 

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like to, to meet the flexible 
demand. 

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You know, Uber and Lyft's 
innovation was the incentivize 

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drivers to work when there was a
lot of work to be done and not 

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when there wasn't. 
And way MO doesn't have the same

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mechanism besides just, you 
know, parking the car. 

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Yeah, right now way MO is also 
top down to part of the Uber and

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Lyft mechanism is that it's the 
driver's car, right. 

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And so that's another level of 
overhead that some people that 

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I've spoken to have said can be 
really difficult with scaling 

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going forward that you might 
need to find a way to handle 

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that that's not fully controlled
by the company also 

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manufacturing the self driving 
software. 

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Yes. 
A recurring theme is always if 

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you give something away for less
than it costs you to produce, 

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that will be a very popular 
product. 

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And then once you have to get 
the margins right, who knows how

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things will sort out. 
And so how much is Waymo heavily

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subsidizing this to make it 
work? 

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And can they find a model where 
they can deliver it 

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competitively? 
If they can't, they're going to,

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you know, it's going to 
struggle. 

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Well, traditional, I mean 
traditional transportation 

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companies also typically have, 
you know, razor thin margins as 

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is like it's, it's a tough, it's
a tough model. 

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Waymo is such a superior product
to driving like that to me is 

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the case. 
They also have the leverage. 

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They can decide, do we work with
automakers or do we do it 

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ourselves? 
Do we work with Uber or do we do

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it ourselves? 
Like I would much rather be in 

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the way MO position. 
And I just think fundamentally 

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the the other piece of it is 
that they, if it's a network, 

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they get to coordinate all their
cars together and sort of learn 

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things from each other versus of
all the, you know, the car 

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companies are doing their own 
technology anyway. 

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I I think way MO remains in a 
super strong position. 

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People counted Google out 
forever and this thing in a 

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decade is going to be like 
transformative. 

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And I think I it's a question of
when the first city says we only

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want self driving cars, no more 
of these crazy human drivers. 

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Do you agree disagree. 
I mean, that's very, you're from

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Texas, aren't you? 
You know, you don't have a 

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little bit of real American like
we're never going to let get rid

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of cars. 
It's like guns, you know? 

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No, I mean, I feel like it's 
it's the, you know, there I have

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to speak to my Texan roots. 
There's some individual myth of,

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you know, being the man behind 
the wheel, if you will, that I 

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think is going to be hard to 
give up in my in my counterpoint

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to you, nothing rational 
entirely vibes, but. 

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That's what Texas is for, you 
know, the guns and cars can be 

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in Texas and the dense 
metropolitan areas will have no,

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no human drivers and hopefully 
no guns. 

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But. 
What do you do when there's a 

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city in Texas where the whammers
are? 

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What's the American experiment? 
But anyway, very exciting. 

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It's exciting news I think as 
someone who's really excited 

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about self driving like to see 
them hit this critical mass in 

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San Francisco and it they're 
expanding into more cities. 

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So we'll have this experiment 
play out again and again. 

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Moving on to the deal of the 
week, the live shopping platform

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what not just announced in up 
round 265,000,000 Series E 

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fundraise Co led by Graycroft, 
DST Global and Avra Capital 

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which brought its valuation up 
to around 5 billion which is up 

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from it's last funding round in 
2022. 

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Eric, you have been mixed 
signals on the live shopping 

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market, but. 
You know, I, I've read them off,

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I think I mean pop shop, you 
know, is a disaster. 

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TikTok is ubiquitous. 
I did pull up the Google trends 

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and whatnot, you know, held 
strong and then recently had a 

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strong uptick, though strong 
upticks around funding rounds 

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are always extremely suspicious,
but it it still feels resilient.

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It's not a company that's sort 
of like falling away from at 

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least my quick Google trend 
search. 

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I mean, you were making the what
I thought was the most 

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interesting point about what 
happens if TikTok gets banned. 

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Right. 
Well, TikTok. 

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So as a avid TikTok user, Full 
disclosure both. 

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Of us are obsessives, I think. 
Regret, regretful obsessives, if

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you will, the shopping feature 
on TikTok. 

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The TikTok Shop offers some live
shopping features and live 

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shopping is something that 
obviously has taken has some 

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audience in the United States if
Whatnot is raising this great 

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round, but it's not. 
It's much more popular in Asia 

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and other countries. 
TikTok Shop does offer some live

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shopping, so Whatnot does 
compete with them in some way. 

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Right. 
TikTok was subsidizing their 

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shopping like a ton I think like
over Christmas. 

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Absolutely. 
The deals on there were 

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unethically low. 
Yeah, well, they just want you 

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to do 1. 
And then, you know, maybe I mean

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that it makes you wonder, right?
Like why? 

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Why does Whatnot need this much 
money? 

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And like, maybe one of the 
answers is they need to be able 

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to discount at the level of 
TikTok to get people to try it. 

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I assume there's some social 
media spend, but it is, it is 

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crazy in a moment where we're 
sort of in a downturn outside of

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AI where and. 
Particular. 

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Has been so hard, yeah. 
Yeah. 

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And people are saying, oh, you 
can run your company with, you 

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know, just you and, you know, 
Chachi BT that that, you know, a

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marketplace would raise this 
much money is amazing to me. 

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Well, Whatnot does compete with 
TikTok, particularly on the 

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TikTok Shop feature. 
If TikTok does end up getting 

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banned at the Supreme Court, 
then Whatnot would be in a 

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position to take up some of that
market share. 

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So a degree of this funding 
round feels almost advantageous 

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that it's coming at this moment.
I think the management's like, 

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hey, you know, there's what, 20%
chance TikTok gets banned. 

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You get to get great investment 
if that if that happens. 

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It's trending. 
It seems a little more uncertain

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than maybe it did a couple 
months ago that the ban is 

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actually going to go through, 
but. 

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Obviously, you know, one of the 
largest Trump donors this cycle 

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was also one of the biggest 
shareholders in TikTok. 

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And I think everybody thinks 
that's going to have a big 

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influence on it. 
It would be funny if you know 

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Marc Andreessen, who's 
Andreessen Horowitz is an 

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investor in this round and an 
investor earlier and whatnot 

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tried to pull strings to the 
opposite. 

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But I I doubt it happens and I I
bet TikTok stays stays and 

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whatnot has to fight a fair 
fight to win over video 

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shoppers. 
Eric, you bet TikTok lives 

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another day. 
Is that your 2025 prediction? 

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Yeah, I mean, just like, man, I,
I, I, my position, which I stand

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by, is that the US should 
enforce reciprocity with China. 

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And it's not about being Chinese
particularly manipulating the 

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US, but it's just like, if they 
have companies here, we should 

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have social media companies 
there. 

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If they can manipulate us, we'll
manipulate you. 

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And it's the lack of reciprocity
that is my issue. 

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So at the current moment, I 
support a TikTok ban. 

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That said, it would be a 
political disaster. 

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I feel like politicians 
understand this, and they're not

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even quite in touch with the 
demographic that would go insane

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if TikTok were banned. 
We're yeah, we're, I mean, we're

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excited for the new year. 
I think it's gonna be a busy 

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year for us. 
We're planning our event 

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schedule. 
This is like the, you know, I 

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feel like this is the first year
where just like as a business, 

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I'm like, Oh my God, every 
passing day is like a day less 

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to get everything done. 
We want to this year, which is 

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sort of a different feeling than
I guess that's a good. 

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Problem to have, Eric. 
That's great. 

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It's a good problem, but it is 
also like I was complaining on 

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Twitter. 
I'm, I'm, I'm going to become 

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like one of these grind people 
or grind mindset people. 

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I'm like, I can't believe like 
the first full week of the year 

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is like January 6th because that
means nobody was answering my 

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emails on like January 2nd and 
3rd, you know, So all right, 

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good luck now everybody in LA 
and yeah, we'll see you next 

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week. 
Thanks so much.

