1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:03,760 Hi, I'm Eric Newcomer. And I am Madeline Rinbarger. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,000 And this is the newcomer podcast. 3 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:14,040 Each week, Eric and I discuss the VC deals and the drama that 4 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:15,840 went down. Let's do it. 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,160 Here we go. Let's dive in. 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,120 Welcome back to the Newcomer Podcast. 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,560 It's our last show of the year, Eric. 8 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:25,720 I mean, it's flown by. I know. 9 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:29,640 Yeah, it's crazy. It's a very busy December for 10 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,840 me. We've survived our events, but 11 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,720 have a very ambitious plan for Newcomer next year. 12 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,840 And I think as we're going to get to on this show, it seems 13 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:43,040 like tech itself might be positioned for a better year 14 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,680 next year than we expected. So we'll definitely be a busy 15 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,480 year for us and big slate of stuff to talk about in this 16 00:00:50,480 --> 00:00:52,000 episode. So excited to get into it. 17 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,280 Yes, let's jump in. I'd say bullish on 2025 if it's 18 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,880 anything like this, the last couple of weeks of December that 19 00:00:57,880 --> 00:00:59,560 we've had. First. 20 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,640 First up off, of course, is Servicetitan saw its stock price 21 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,560 pop during its IPO this week. Huge. 22 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,360 I feel like we are tech is desperate to make a mountain of 23 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:12,800 out of a molehill out of this one. 24 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:16,200 I mean, Servicetitan, good company, not like a 25 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,240 transformational iconic company that everybody's heard of, but 26 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,520 positive IPO. Uh, Servicetitan helped avoid 27 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,280 some of a brutal ratchet, though. 28 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,000 I think the late stage investors still got a little extra money, 29 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,840 but they had a lot of pressure to go public, uh, thanks to 30 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,520 their deals with late stage investors. 31 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:39,320 And thank God they got that extra push because they had a 32 00:01:39,320 --> 00:01:42,040 successful IPO. We saw a pop. 33 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,120 I don't know what. What's the mood? 34 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,120 The mood seems really positive. I mean, the shares opened at 35 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,960 101. They had continually raised the 36 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,760 share price ahead of the IPO, which was, you know, priced at 37 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,520 71, which was a big jump up from what we first thought it was 38 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,800 going to be. And, you know, there's been some 39 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,760 investors in the deal that it's just a really big win for them. 40 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,680 I think a lot of people were really hoping for something like 41 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,760 this at the end of the year as a positive signal. 42 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,800 Part of what motivated Certos Titan to go public at the end of 43 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:11,800 the year and not wait a year was, you know, this ratchet 44 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,280 mechanism. What are your thoughts on this? 45 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,080 Is this like a good bet going forward? 46 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,640 Does this work well for companies or how do investors, 47 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,480 you know, take it? I mean ratchets, you know, like 48 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,480 a four letter word among VCs partially because early stage 49 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:29,480 VCs are the ones getting diluted potentially by ratchets. 50 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:35,320 I mean I I have two views. On the one hand, it's like 51 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,560 ratchets are bad when founders use them to prop up a high 52 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:44,840 valuation for vanity, right? And they would argue that it's, 53 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,840 you know, employee recruiting or that they really believe in the 54 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:50,560 valuation and they don't want to sacrifice it. 55 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:54,040 But it's dangerous when a founder is delusional about what 56 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,840 their company is worth. So they cut a deal that works 57 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,880 out well in the upside but underestimates the risk and the 58 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,720 downside. So Servicetitan getting out and 59 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,920 doing OK, I guess they they correctly calculated. 60 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:11,120 On the other hand, you know, I think it's easy to be like, oh, 61 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,080 ratchets, you're just chasing a high valuation that's not 62 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,480 defensible. On the other hand, you know, 63 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,760 these founders certainly understand hopefully the terms. 64 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,240 And, you know, often they're raising a ratchet when they 65 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,480 can't get sort of equity at terms they prefer. 66 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:32,120 And so, you know, these are sophisticated investors doing 67 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:33,720 deals. So I don't have any real moral 68 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,800 problem. The the big problem I have is 69 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,560 just the valuation itself. You know, the world, founders, 70 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,840 reporters, media, we all love valuations. 71 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,880 And of course, the more complicated math and terms that 72 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,440 go into evaluation, the more bullshitty they are. 73 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,480 So often ratchets are just a reminder that we all place too 74 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,800 much stock in private valuations, and they're flawed 75 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,600 measures of how good a company is. 76 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,400 And that's why ultimately we often want these companies to go 77 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:08,960 public where there's an ongoing market for a company stock and 78 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,000 their market cap is more more serious than the idea that you 79 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:17,040 can get one person or a couple, a small number of firms to 80 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:21,480 invest with complicated terms that inflate your valuation. 81 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,680 I wanted to highlight my favorite tech meme account tweet 82 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,440 on this whole thing. It's from Buku. 83 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,200 Is it Buku Capital? It's one of my favorite accounts 84 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,760 like. Buku Capital bloke or yeah yeah 85 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,040 yeah yeah. Long time follower. 86 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:42,560 He has a picture of Stringer Bell from The Wire and it says, 87 00:04:42,840 --> 00:04:47,680 I want you to put the word out there that we back up and he's 88 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,920 quote, tweeting Bill Gurley, who's, uh, whining about IPOs, 89 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,480 leave money on the table and everybody should do a direct 90 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:59,560 listing, which is obviously, you know, Bill Gurley's, uh, hobby 91 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,440 horse, you know, his obsession. And yeah, I do think there's a 92 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,640 truth to it. It's like, man, we're really 93 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,800 back to normal if Gurley's out there making the case for direct 94 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,880 listings because you only, you know are will it you, you don't, 95 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:14,040 you don't quibble about the small stuff if you're worried 96 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,720 about big existential questions around whether tech companies 97 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,640 can go public at all. You're only sort of making the 98 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,000 case for direct listings. Once IPOs are so good that 99 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,440 you're like, Oh well the balance is is money that you're giving 100 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,880 to bankers to give away to their friends instead of making sure 101 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:35,120 us VCs and founders get get as much money. 102 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:36,960 Get a fair share. Shares, yeah. 103 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:39,440 Right. It seems like it's very much, 104 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:43,000 you know, just if we're, if we're in this debate like that's 105 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,120 the bull signal, right? Good, good. 106 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:49,600 Madeline, you you've been sort of eyeing the IPO market with 107 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,760 Servicetitan doing well. What companies does that sort of 108 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,360 give a potential nudge out the door that might have been 109 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,040 considering it next year? So the big talk of the town is 110 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,600 obviously data bricks. I've heard kind of mixed signals 111 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,800 actually on that one. Some sources are saying that's a 112 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,640 lock for 2025. Some are saying no, no, no, it's 113 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,120 2026 because they just had this really big capital raise. 114 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,360 So that one I think will be soon. 115 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,400 But they did acquire some capital pretty recently that 116 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,520 could hold them off for a bit if they want to. 117 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,280 So that may not be one. Obviously, people have their 118 00:06:18,280 --> 00:06:20,720 eyes on Stripe. I think some more interesting 119 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,400 ones that I've been hearing about, you know, are Chime of 120 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,520 Figma maybe again Chime I. Believe next year. 121 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,160 Yeah, Chime, that seems likely. Some people told me canvas. 122 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:35,160 So quite a quite a slate there. There's a lot of deca corns kind 123 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,560 of waiting in the wings. So there's a lot to choose from, 124 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,440 but. The problem with data bricks and 125 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,240 Stripe is what you're touching on. 126 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:45,720 Their ability to raise these insane private rounds just takes 127 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,960 off so much pressure. I mean, Stripe is doing so well 128 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,920 that they can, you know, you know, buy shares from their own 129 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:53,880 employees. So it's sort of there is a 130 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,680 continued sort of perpetual private company anyway. 131 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,040 We can talk about the psychology of these big companies staying 132 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,480 private all day. But I think the point here is 133 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,960 clearly there's a lot of hope right now that a positive 134 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:10,680 Servicetitan IPO will mean that everybody's a little more 135 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,400 enthusiastic going into next year, which certainly the 136 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,640 software world, you know, it's, it's been brutal. 137 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,120 You know, it's been a good time for AI, but the classic sort of 138 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,480 software company? Much harder. 139 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:26,560 In private markets news, we had a massive capital raise this 140 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:33,120 week with Crusoe, friend of the pod Chase Lochner, but. 141 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,120 Chase, he's run staple at Cerebral Valley. 142 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,920 Some of our dinners, the character, I think one time, 143 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:43,560 yeah, we had somebody bail and we had like Chase, I just met 144 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,840 Chase and put him on stage in Cerebral Valley. 145 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,360 I mean, he's a great, very charismatic guy. 146 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,800 Sort of fun story of like they, you know, they got into AI cloud 147 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,800 compute business from working crypto and you know, they're all 148 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,200 about using sort of captured energy. 149 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,600 So both the creative business. Yeah, the most successful crypto 150 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:07,560 to AI pivot of all time maybe. But yeah, they they're, they're 151 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:11,160 doing quite well. They raised a 600 million series 152 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,680 round led by Founders Fund, notably a fund who really likes 153 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,640 to take a big chunk of the round, so they delivered on 154 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,120 that. Fascinating founders fund bet 155 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:24,160 you know, we've said it before, but you know a lot of their 156 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,800 successful investments have been these growth stage deals. 157 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,080 High conviction with with this one at a time when many people 158 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,080 think if AI continues to accelerate we'll have sky high 159 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,799 energy costs and really need to build up infrastructure. 160 00:08:37,919 --> 00:08:39,679 Yeah, absolutely. It seems like also, you know, 161 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,960 Founders Fund has a pretty prominent position in open AI. 162 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,920 So I feel like they're here with this high conviction bet where 163 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:46,360 they're taking a big chunk of this. 164 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,120 They're going all in on every part of the the stack needed to 165 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,160 power the AI future. Moving on to our main story, 166 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,960 Alphabet had a bunch of wins last week. 167 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,280 I just am shocked. Insane. 168 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,480 I mean quantum chips announcement was great, so 169 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,880 they've made big progress there. They have the best public 170 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,680 company offering in generative AI, which they just updated 171 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,760 their models. And then a sort of unforced 172 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,080 error from General Motors abandoning Cruise means that 173 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:21,240 Waymo, which already, you know, is in the lead, is now sort of 174 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:25,000 uncontested again, except Tesla, which of course, is, you know, 175 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:28,360 an automaker building their own autonomous technology. 176 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:32,680 So if you're an automaker without self driving 177 00:09:32,680 --> 00:09:36,240 capabilities, it seems like Waymo is your only potential 178 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,560 partner. So yeah, what did I miss? 179 00:09:38,560 --> 00:09:41,360 Any Google wins or I mean the stock price is up too. 180 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,000 Yeah, the price is surging. I mean, it's just been an all 181 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,120 around great period for them in a time when I think a lot of 182 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:48,360 people were really writing them off. 183 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,680 They had, you know, a lot in the AI race specifically, and this 184 00:09:51,680 --> 00:09:55,160 Gemini News is just really promising for them too, I think. 185 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,360 And I, you know, I thought you and Jonathan had the right take 186 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,320 in the newsletter, which was this has been a company that 187 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,160 people are like, oh, they're their lunches are too good, you 188 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:07,400 know, they're too soft. And and certainly, you know, 189 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:09,720 I've known Google people who didn't seem like they were in 190 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,760 the office super long hours, but. 191 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:13,960 I think about that part in Silicon Valley where they're 192 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,280 unassigned, you know, at huli, right? 193 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,120 Like that's the classic Google negative stereotype. 194 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,160 But, you know, the counter to that is that sort of, you know, 195 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,840 researchers require a little bit, you know, of Slack and time 196 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,040 to think. And, you know, in some ways 197 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,760 Google was setting itself up as a very researcher friendly 198 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,680 company. Of course we knew that, you 199 00:10:34,680 --> 00:10:37,040 know, the Transformer paper came out of Google and all those 200 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,400 people left. And so maybe it's like, OK, 201 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,960 they're going to discovering things, but then everybody else 202 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:43,760 is going to eat their lunch and execute. 203 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,040 But now we're starting to see some signs that no, with this 204 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,520 advanced technology, they're still very capable of producing 205 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,440 results. And so that's made the market 206 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,840 and I think Silicon Valley more bullish on Sundar, even as what 207 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,280 the government's trying to break them up. 208 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,560 So we'll see if you know Google as we know it, Alphabet as we 209 00:11:03,560 --> 00:11:05,880 know it. Still exists, right? 210 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,320 Totally. I think, I think it's really a 211 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,160 story of not counting them out at this point. 212 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,040 They're bets that they've made that are these sort of wonky 213 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,160 research bets that seemed like long time horizons since we've 214 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,240 hit those time horizons that it seems like they're paying off 215 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:23,040 and it seems like despite all of the criticism, they are turning 216 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:24,800 them into products, which is pretty impressive. 217 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,680 So obviously they have a lot of competition, but not really on 218 00:11:27,680 --> 00:11:29,080 self driving. So I mean. 219 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,840 I mean, a super macro theme. You know, we talk a lot about 220 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:36,320 venture, but the big public tech companies keep dominating, you 221 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,560 know it. I mean, people counted out 222 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:43,040 Facebook Meta for a while and that company was a great sort of 223 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,320 public investment. People then counted out 224 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:46,800 Alphabet. Now. 225 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,360 It's been great public investment. 226 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,000 Microsoft is obviously crushing it. 227 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:55,680 So, man, the tech giants just continue to win. 228 00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:58,560 And, you know, if in a Trump world, it feels like, oh, they 229 00:11:58,560 --> 00:12:03,440 can do deals again, Yeah, I remain pretty bullish on those 230 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,360 companies. And lots, lots of excitement 231 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:09,520 that they can just gobble up the startup winners going forward. 232 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,240 For sure, definitely. You mentioned that Alphabet's 233 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,640 work on Quantum was getting the startup world excited. 234 00:12:15,560 --> 00:12:17,680 How much is the Quantum world delivering? 235 00:12:17,680 --> 00:12:20,240 You know, I wrote about Righetti many years ago. 236 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,520 It seems like that's a now public company that has 237 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,600 struggled. Or what's your sense of the 238 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:30,080 startup world's answer to what Alphabet has produced here? 239 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,640 Yeah, I think it's pretty early. From my understanding, startup 240 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:38,560 funding to Quantum companies, it spiked this year to 1.7 billion. 241 00:12:38,560 --> 00:12:41,760 According to Pitchbook, there were across 73 deals. 242 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,520 Last year there were 93 deals, but there weren't, they weren't 243 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,840 as capital intensive. So the overall funding total was 244 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,400 lower, but it's the highest total for funding in a year for 245 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,720 quantum computing yet in the venture market. 246 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,720 So obviously there's some excitement around that. 247 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,640 I think people are exploring different ways we can develop 248 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,320 compute as we get, you know, further into the future. 249 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,400 That seems really promising. But the main thing I get from 250 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,960 talking to quantum founders, even obviously who are very 251 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:09,120 bullish on this technology is that it's early days. 252 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,080 The use cases are still kind of far. 253 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,440 So for these sort of moon shot bets, as exciting as Alphabet's 254 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:16,840 breakthrough is with these chips, and it does have, you 255 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,280 know, a lot of founders equally excited and jealous that this 256 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,800 has happened. It's it's still we're still in 257 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,560 early innings. It's not necessarily like we're 258 00:13:24,560 --> 00:13:28,280 going to see the killer quantum use case or product yet, but 259 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:32,400 it's very promising right now. Very Silicon Valley, always 260 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,120 early. We talk fantasize about the 261 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:36,720 technology when it's in early innings. 262 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,600 It'll take take a while, but. You got to have the video. 263 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:44,640 AI Open AI was once sort of in this it's a research project 264 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:48,800 period with some exciting ideas. And now you know, I'm talking to 265 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:50,840 ChatGPT. I'm talking to ChatGPT more and 266 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,920 more every day. What do you talk to ChatGPT 267 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,960 about Eric? I mean, I do too, but yeah. 268 00:13:55,560 --> 00:13:58,560 I'm trying to use it as like my To Do List where it's sort of a 269 00:13:58,560 --> 00:14:02,120 dynamic To Do List where I updated on what I've done. 270 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,520 And then it's like come back to me with what I need to do and 271 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,040 like cross off things. It's, you know, if anything, 272 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,360 it's smart formatting. But it's also nice in that 273 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:16,720 ideally it keeps sort of a running track record of what I 274 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,080 need to do. And, you know, in some ways I 275 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,760 think what it delivers honestly, is it's like very affirming 276 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,040 relative to, to to list. It's it's like, yeah, OK, you 277 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,320 know, this is you've gotten a lot of stuff done today. 278 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:30,960 You know, it's good job. It's good of being sort of a 279 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,720 little supportive while keeping track of things, doing the 280 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:35,960 formatting. So it brings a lot of little 281 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,760 things that a traditional word processor doesn't on ChatGPT. 282 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:43,720 I actually, like had a long conversation with ChatGPT about 283 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,440 Google's Quantum announcement because they claimed that their 284 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:51,920 discovery pointed to like multiple universes. 285 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,720 And I, I found that somewhat hard to believe or like, at 286 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,000 first I was enticed, but then I was like, really. 287 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,920 And, and so it honest, honestly, it was a good way to sort of dig 288 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,920 into quantum mechanics and the current research. 289 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:09,080 And basically, you know, there are people real, you know, 290 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:13,960 scientists who think that quantum is evidence that there 291 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,080 are multiple universes and perhaps. 292 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,520 Some people think it really does prove the multiverse theory, 293 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:19,240 yeah. Right. 294 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,480 That it's that the processing is actually happening in other 295 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,560 universes. Where is there other people who 296 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:30,320 think the the the waveforms sort of contain embedded information 297 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,560 and just the ability to access basically their probability 298 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,720 computing power is in our time just able to get a lot of 299 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,160 information very efficiently. And, and so I came away from my 300 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,480 discussion with chat GP not convinced that anything about 301 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:50,800 Google's finding uniquely pushed us towards multiple universes 302 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:55,080 versus just the wave functions having embedded information. 303 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,480 But I'm I'm not the most knowledgeable about it. 304 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,440 I was. Going to say beyond GPT, you did 305 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:04,160 write about quantum back in the day a little bit So but yeah, 306 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,880 your prospect is, you know, we're still early days. 307 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:07,760 Where? Where do you land? 308 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,680 On the actual business, putting aside the deep philosophical 309 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:12,840 questions about the. Universe. 310 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,160 Yes, exactly. Let's get to the facts. 311 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:20,160 It takes too long. You know, a lot of things often, 312 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,280 you know, even though Silicon Valley doesn't like to say it, 313 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:26,160 you'd, you'd like to be like the second company, you know, once 314 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,800 it's a sure thing and somebody's making some money on it. 315 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,440 Can you fast copy a lot of these things? 316 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,720 I mean, like we're, we've sort of referenced open AI did not 317 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,360 come up with the transformer paper. 318 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,360 They were in a good position to sort of seize on it. 319 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:43,160 And so to some degree, you know, I, I think if I were building a 320 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:47,320 quantum company, I might wait another five years and then copy 321 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:48,880 all the good work that everybody's done. 322 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,520 But, you know, so much of it is, do I have the right 323 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:57,000 sophisticated team at the exact moment where the breakthroughs 324 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,360 are finally becoming commercially, commercially 325 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,320 viable? And yeah, I, I guess I don't 326 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,440 think we're at that moment yet. So if I were starting the 327 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,160 quantum computing startup, I'd wait a couple of years and then 328 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,240 try again once we feel a little closer. 329 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,440 But as I said on the last podcast, happy for people to 330 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,079 burn money trying to build it because we want it. 331 00:17:18,079 --> 00:17:20,960 But yeah. You want your investments. 332 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,720 Shares as an investment. Moving on. 333 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,520 I did want to shout out a couple honorable mentions this week. 334 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:28,520 They weren't our top stories. We love we. 335 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,080 Love upstart venture capital firms, so we do not. 336 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:32,960 Leave them off. The roster we have. 337 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,920 To mention them two that really came out were Laud Ventures 338 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:41,960 raised a debut $150 million fund to back precede and seed stage 339 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:46,320 technical startups founded by Pete Sonsini, Andy Kowinski, 340 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,000 who's the Co founder of Data Bricks, and Andrew Kriyakov. 341 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,560 It's a great team. Again, an example of emerging 342 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,520 managers work when you have like a powerhouse team behind you. 343 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,600 So clearly this is one of those cases. 344 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,120 But yeah, I'm bullish. I feel like one of, you know, a 345 00:18:01,120 --> 00:18:04,800 premise of newcomer has been data bricks is underrated and I, 346 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,840 you know, early on did a bunch of scoops and their valuations 347 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:12,080 and you know, Ollie Goatsy, the CEO has been prominent cerebral 348 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:16,200 Valley Cincini, you know, did the data bricks investment for 349 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,720 NEA and was a star over there and is now off with his own 350 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,160 firm. So I guess if my data bricks 351 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,960 bullishness holds, then I'm bullish on law adventures. 352 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,400 So we'll be interesting to see what they do the other emerging. 353 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,640 Fund this week that announced a dimension big fund. 354 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,560 Dimension raised an upward oversubscribed fund to $500 355 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,200 million to invest across the stages. 356 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,400 So not just, you know, early stage or late stage, they'll do 357 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:46,640 it all in tech, bio and AI. It's Zavin Dar, Adam Gilburn and 358 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:52,040 Non Lee also came out of, you know, prominent firms were Eric, 359 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,920 you know, you broke dimension one on your news on the 360 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,280 newsletter back in the day and they're back at it again with 361 00:18:58,280 --> 00:18:59,840 even more capital. Love those. 362 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:04,280 Guys, exciting firm don't claim to understand what every company 363 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:10,080 they invest in does, but godspeed, you know interesting. 364 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:14,160 You know, ZOV broke off of Lux, so did Adam. 365 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:15,160 Adam. Was at Lux too. 366 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,000 Oh yeah. Adam and Bilal just left. 367 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:22,400 So I mean, we're in this moment where and I think we're 368 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,760 agonizing about in our own sort of how we're writing about this 369 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,840 stuff at once. It's like the big firms are 370 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:33,000 getting more dominant and then interesting partners are, you 371 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,080 know, shaking off. And obviously some of those 372 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,120 interesting partners maybe don't have the performance, so they're 373 00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:40,200 not surviving the big funds. And then other ones are 374 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:42,960 superstars and think, well, why are my bosses getting the 375 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:47,080 management fees I should? And so as you know, observers, 376 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,240 it can be hard sometimes to separate one from the other. 377 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,800 But we're would love you feel glad to e-mail us and tell us 378 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:55,800 who's who. But yeah, but clearly the 379 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,840 dimension team has one over their LP's. 380 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,160 I think Zav, you know, is in runway. 381 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:05,240 I know he has another successful Lux investment under his there 382 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,960 is in beta. Biosciences, yeah, on the 383 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,840 biotech side as well. So they'll they'll cross that 384 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,120 while there is this sort of flight to quality with the mega 385 00:20:13,120 --> 00:20:16,360 firms and LP capital. If you are a star player at one 386 00:20:16,360 --> 00:20:18,720 of those mega firms and you decide to break off the the 387 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:20,920 tough market for emerging managers does not apply to you. 388 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,880 If you're in that case, there are I'm going to call. 389 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,480 Bullshit on your term flight to quality. 390 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,560 I feel like we should start calling it like flight to 391 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,400 consensus or flight to cab flight. 392 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,480 To existing capital, yeah, quality. 393 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,160 You know, it's like it's a flight to a safe bet that's not 394 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,480 going to get you fired as an LP with you know, but but yeah, the 395 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,520 mega funds, however they're doing a flight to. 396 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,480 Consensus. That's a better term for it. 397 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:48,520 Yeah. Flight to consensus. 398 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:49,800 There, that's it. I take that one. 399 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,120 That's good, really exciting for. 400 00:20:51,120 --> 00:20:54,080 Both of these teams and can't wait to see what they do in the 401 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:55,560 new year. Wow covered a lot of. 402 00:20:55,560 --> 00:21:00,760 Ground we went from. I know some ChatGPT IPOs. 403 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,680 Yeah so new finds. This was a lot happening. 404 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:05,640 As reporters, you know, we cheer for news. 405 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,520 And so it's a, it's a good sign that in December, I don't know, 406 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:14,480 positive IPOs, Google doing well, Yeah, makes me a little 407 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,280 more optimistic about next year than maybe I was a month ago. 408 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:19,480 Oh, yeah. I put in AI. 409 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,880 There's an annual discount to newcomer right now. 410 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,080 It's 30% off. So maybe, you know, wait. 411 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,080 Oh. My gosh, what a fantastic 412 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,840 holiday gift. Wow, what a loyal employee. 413 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,120 Yeah, better than what? Better than. 414 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:37,280 Could you do then? Pay, make, you know, make our 415 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,280 business possible, you know, but seriously, you know, we, we 416 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,640 appreciate everyone who subscribes. 417 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,800 It's a good moment to jump on board. 418 00:21:45,360 --> 00:21:48,800 And then also, I'd say, you know, you can always e-mail, uh, 419 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,600 Madeline and I, you know, our first names at newcomer.co. 420 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,600 Always open to topics and thoughts. 421 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,920 Just reminder that we do our best when you all weigh in. 422 00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:03,120 And so I don't want this podcast to be 1 directional. 423 00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:07,920 And so feel free definitely. And I need to do a post, maybe 424 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,720 the podcast. I can always preview the posts I 425 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,200 should be writing like default off the record. 426 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,680 Or it's like, I think people get worried that if they send us our 427 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,320 thoughts, we're going to like trick them and put it on the 428 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,440 record. Definitely not. 429 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,160 You know, I when we're publishing people, they they 430 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,200 know about it and we want information more than we want 431 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,880 you to be nervous that we're going to trick you to put your 432 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,880 emails to us on the record. So definitely reach out with the 433 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,600 comfort that we won't spill the beans and on that. 434 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:37,960 Note send us your scoops in the new year. 435 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,800 Thanks so much. All right, Thank you. 436 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:41,920 Have a happy holidays.