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Is AI not nearly as powerful as 
some companies would lead us to 

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believe? 
We're recording this episode hot

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on the heels of one of Andre 
Carpathi's AI State of the Union

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interviews. 
I'm only sounding pessimistic 

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because when I go on my Twitter 
timeline, I see all this stuff 

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that makes no sense to me. 
It has us reflecting on the 

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vastly different takes people 
are having about AI. 

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On the one hand, you have the 
New York Times reporting that 

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America's biggest employer is 
moving towards complete 

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automation, while on the other, 
we're seeing AI failing to 

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impress. 
In today's episode, we want to 

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look deeper into the power 
behind the potential a bubble 

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we're seeing. 
But first, we'll be discussing a

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recent article written by 
Madeline Renberger in which she 

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takes a deep dive into how 
Andreessen Horowitz are making 

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off like such bandits. 
We'll look into the results 

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they're expecting to end the 
year with and what moves they 

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made to get nearly $25 billion 
in gains since its founding. 

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This is the newcomer podcast. 
All right, Madeline, we've been 

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diving deep into Andreessen's 
numbers over the last couple of 

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weeks on Newcomer. 
And couple weeks ago we had a 

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big story with a lot of their 
kind of unrealized and realized 

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returns. 
But the question that came out 

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of that story was like, but 
really how much was distributed 

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back-to-back to partner, sorry, 
back to investors, which we now 

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have a much more clear read on 
after the story that you and 

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Eric did so. 
This is real venture nerddom. 

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You know they absolute well. 
How is Andreessen doing? 

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Yeah, you can see markups, but 
then, you know, we get feedback 

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from our readers like, but 
what's the actual cash? 

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How does they? 
Mean the real Yeah. 

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What's a reasonable thing to 
want to know more about? 

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I mean, this is always the 
question about venture, right? 

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Especially in an era where, you 
know, there's not a lot of IP OS

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and you know, actual cash 
returns are like a big question 

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for all of these companies. 
So what do we, what do we got in

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Andreessen? 
What did we, what did we learn 

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from your piece? 
Yeah. 

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So it's really a tale of where 
they made money kind of lands 

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into two buckets. 
There's all of the funds pre 

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2014. 
So their first few funds, those 

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have done incredibly well. 
And post 2014 crypto has done 

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incredibly well. 
And that's basically the story 

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of Andreessen's actual cash back
to investors. 

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I would say, you know, the first
fund was spectacular. 

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It has returned as this was of 
course, as of end of 2024. 

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But they had returned 6X on the 
investment to investors from 

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their first fund. 
That included their Skype exit, 

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a couple other, you know, really
big deals. 

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But like it's that they really 
showed their money there. 

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Like that first fund out of the 
gate. 

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Super impressive, kind of set 
their reputation. 

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Always good. 
If you start a venture firm, you

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want to, you want to come out of
the gate strong, and they did 

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that. 
And you should subscribe to 

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newcomers. 
You can see the whole chart. 

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We have all the numbers. 
You can follow along. 

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And I think one thing I'm proud 
of in this story is that we got 

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sort of the Cambridge Associates
benchmarking data. 

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So you not only see how 
Andreessen's doing, but at the 

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same time what was sort of the 
top quartile and top 5% DPI 

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distribute distributed to 
painting capital for venture. 

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And you know, in this first one,
Madeline's talking about 

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Andreessen is 6X DPI at the time
of this, you know, September 

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2024. 
And then top quartile is 2.37 X 

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and then top five percent is 
3.98 X. 

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So by any measure that first 
fund that came out of the gate 

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strong. 
The second fund, they're in the 

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top quartile, but not the top 
5%. 

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The third fund they're in both 
the top quartile and top 5%. 

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So that's that's the early days.
Yeah, the early days, super 

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impressive and yeah, they're 
basically like in the one, I 

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won't go into direct averages, 
but like the very top of 

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performance. 
These first funds, which is what

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you obviously want to see going 
forward. 

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Obviously the closer we get to 
the present, you're not going to

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see as big of returns, right. 
But even their, you know, core 

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2016 fund which is almost 10 
years old has a DPI of just .3. 

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So we've gone from 6X on the 
first fund to .3 where you 

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really should start seeing cash.
So that one has really 

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underperformed. 
I mean, it's below the median, 

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so it's not even the top half of
performance. 

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With and those funds are bigger.
I think a key thing with the 

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Andreessen story is that they 
get more and more money, right? 

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It's like they do well in the 
beginning and then they're like,

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screw, like the benchmark model 
and this small model of venture 

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capital, we're going to get huge
and we're going to raise a bunch

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of money. 
And so part of what you want to 

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know as somebody covering 
Andreessen Horowitz, the, you 

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know, the most prolific investor
now in Silicon Valley, founded 

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in 2009, you know, run by Marc 
Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, 

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this epic venture capital firm. 
You want to know it's like, OK, 

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they did well in his small 
venture capital. 

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Are they going to do well as a 
huge sort of money manager? 

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And those funds are not 
performing. 

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You know, the 2016 fund is worse
than what you're saying, even 

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the median, right? 
So that is, yeah, it's not doing

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great, right. 
And then a lot of venture, 

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Andreessen or or otherwise 
hasn't really returned a lot of 

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money in, you know, the last 
nine years. 

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I don't. 
Know I was going to say even as 

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you to your point, as they've 
gotten bigger, they've expanded 

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into other verticals. 
And so they have these biotech 

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specific funds and obviously 
we're kind of in a biotech 

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winter right now, but those have
really underperformed even just 

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the rest of the Andreessen 
portfolio, they're not doing 

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well. 
I feel like, you know, they're 

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capital halls that they've, you 
know, raised multiple bio funds,

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but even the first one is just 
not doing as well as the rest of

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these. 
But I will say the big asterisks

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and the big saving grace for 
these later funds for Andreessen

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is their crypto funds. 
The crypto funds, which began in

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2018, have just done just so 
much better than all of these 

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other recent funds, and they 
show cash back to LP's faster 

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than the typical venture cycle. 
Flipping tokens, you get you 

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invest equity and the you know, 
the businesses, but then you 

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also get these tokens and you 
can sell them. 

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I will also in our first and 
recent story, which you should 

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also subscribe to the newsletter
to read, we had they're making 

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this staking revenue, which I 
only half understand. 

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I'm sure some crypto die hard 
will listen to this and be like,

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duh, staking. 
But you know, they're they have 

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money riding in these crypto 
projects and they they throw off

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millions of dollars of cash as 
an investment firm, just, you 

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know, holding tokens and getting
staking income. 

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So they're, yeah, they're making
a lot on crypto and it's it's 

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been a boon for the firm. 
LP, though, how excited are you 

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to be like basically getting 
paid back via crypto like token 

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flipping? 
I guess like money is money and 

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if you're getting what you want 
back, you're fine to a degree, 

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But it doesn't seem like you're 
really fully indexed like across

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the tech, you know, ecosystem 
the way you might want to be if 

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you're just getting like, you 
know, basically coin flipped. 

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You couldn't get more index than
Andreessen Horowitz. 

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I don't know. 
I reading this. 

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You know, if I was an LP, would 
I deploy in Andreessen? 

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I wouldn't want them to bully me
into bio. 

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I guess that would be. 
But yeah, I think you get a 

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broad coverage of venture 
capital and private technology 

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for a fund that has proven that 
they can get sort of top access 

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and has top performance. 
And then you just worry that 

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this, I think you have to make 
this sort of question is like 

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is, has the technology business 
gotten so much bigger to justify

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these much larger funds? 
And like, that's still playing 

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out. 
And that's the question. 

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You know, firms like CO2 and 
Tiger Global, you know, they 

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raise enormous funds and sort of
the pandemic, everything's 

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digital frenzy of 2021, late 
2020. 

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And those funds haven't done 
very well. 

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And so it seemed like, oh, we 
didn't need all that money. 

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Andreessen has sort of kept kept
sort of growing. 

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And so I think there's this 
question about sort of large 

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private investing. 
But I do think on a relative 

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basis, Andreessen has done 
pretty well. 

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Right. 
It's too early to. 

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I was going to say, yeah, I 
agree. 

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I think for the early funds, I 
certainly would have wanted to 

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invest in those funds. 
What the big asterisks in the 

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big test is that it's too soon 
to have any measurable DPI or 

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cash back from these post 2020 
funds. 

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And that's when everything 
ballooned. 

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So to your point, these mega 
funds, you know, off of the 

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success of these early deals, 
they're raising more and more 

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capital and they've raised, you 
know, they closed like a multi 

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billion dollar crypto fund. 
This first crypto fund that 

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returned super well was in the 
hundreds of millions. 

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So the scale of can they 
replicate these impressive even 

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token flipping returns, you 
know, well is remains to be 

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seen. 
And does that mean you'd go buy 

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in now? 
I don't know. 

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But they are in every major tech
deal. 

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They do have the access which is
part of the buy in right? 

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And I, I do think there's value 
if I'm a limited partner to, you

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know, getting visibility like 
data bricks becomes a key 

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company for Andreessen Horowitz.
If I'm a limited partner in 

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Andreessen, they keep backing up
the truck into data bricks. 

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Maybe one day I say, oh, I 
should, you know, if I'm a super

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wealthy, you know, sovereign 
wealth fund or if I'm a 

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university, I say, oh, we'd like
to jump in and do our own, you 

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know, investment following on. 
So, so you get visibility into 

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what's coming up. 
And then you can try, if you're 

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savvy to sort of jump into 
winners yourself with the Intel 

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you get. 
So they're non monetary reasons 

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to invest. 
But but yeah, I think, you know,

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the days of Journal, I mean, 
Andreessen Horowitz comes on the

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scene in 2009 really loud and 
says like, you know, tech is 

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much bigger, this whole world's 
going to get much bigger. 

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And there are a bunch of the 
reporter class that was worried 

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like bubble, bubble, bubble. 
And I think they were right. 

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Like 22,009 to 2016 was a great 
time to invest funds did well, 

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there is money to be made. 
And like a lot of the bubble 

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concerns were misguided. 
And so I think, yeah, looking 

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back on that period of worry on 
Twitter and, you know, just 

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among sort of the chattering 
classes and tech observers, I 

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think Andreessen was pretty 
right and the naysayers were 

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were wrong. 
I don't know, Tom, what it as 

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somebody who sort of watched the
discourse, what's your? 

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Take on that. 
Give us the discourse, yeah. 

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Look, I, I think Andreessen, I 
think loud is the right word to 

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use, right? 
I mean, they came onto the scene

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and and this was Marc 
Andreessen's software as eating 

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the world declaration, which did
prove for a time to be 

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incredibly accurate. 
And sure, I mean, we talked in a

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previous episode about some of 
their key investments that 

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worked out for them. 
There was Airbnb, a lot of the 

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partners, by the way, they were 
behind these big investments are

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not there or the kind of not 
active with entries, which I 

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think is worth pointing out to 
me. 

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What's matters now, it's like 
we're talking about like you're 

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saying, funds that are over a 
decade old now. 

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So, so, and this just sort of is
where my mind is going 

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constantly with all of these 
funds right now with AI is like 

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how strong is your portfolio 
within AI? 

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And if you look at, you know, 
the spectrum of their 

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investments that they have right
now, correct me if I'm wrong 

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here, but the banner ones that I
see from Andreessen right now is

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they are an open AI. 
So they do have some, they do 

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have some, some equity there, 
whatever. 

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But they weren't like a core 
early. 

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They weren't like so right about
opening AI and in fact their 

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crypto obsession blinded them a 
little I think to some of the AI

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stuff like they pivoted loudly, 
but I think they there's a 

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little like, you know, we're 
decentralized and AI is 

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00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,040
centralized and there so there's
this if you're close, close 

225
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,960
Swatcher, there is a little 
hesitation I think from the firm

226
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:35,200
before. 
They were late, but they've 

227
00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,520
bought up a pretty significant 
holding at this point. 

228
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,040
They can make a strong case to 
their LP's that they have 

229
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,560
exposure to to open AI. 
That should make them feel 

230
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,160
pretty good. 
Right, and they're in, I think 

231
00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,320
they're big in XAI, they're huge
thinking machines like, and 

232
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,040
they're in, you know, a lot of, 
I think like Replit, they're in 

233
00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,320
Replit, you know, which is 
coding application type company 

234
00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:57,680
that will speak at Cerebral 
Valley. 

235
00:11:57,680 --> 00:12:01,640
But you know, they were in that,
you know, several pivot or 

236
00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,320
several moods ago for, for the 
company. 

237
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:08,320
So they, they have a, you know, 
portfolio of very recognizable 

238
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,480
names that are in the Silicon 
Valley zeitgeist where you look 

239
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:15,320
at, you know, some of these 
other firms, you know, if no, 

240
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,440
no, I mean Sequoia. 
I'm, I'm more saying like 

241
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,400
General Castle and Lightspeed, 
Like if you look through their 

242
00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:23,840
decks, which we have also 
published in Newcomer, the AI 

243
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:27,440
names are a bit more random. 
And I think Andreessen's AI 

244
00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,320
investments are names that you 
would know partially because 

245
00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,520
Andreessen does a good job of 
making sure we hear them. 

246
00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,800
We do know that I actually think
lightspeed is OK. 

247
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,760
They're a little, there's a 
little bit of randomness with 

248
00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,360
them, but they're, you know, 
they're big in in they're an 

249
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:42,880
anthropic. 
They they led some previous 

250
00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,040
rounds there so they can. 
And they're and they're like 

251
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their business. 
They're good at like real 

252
00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,280
business. 
So often it's like, Oh yeah, we 

253
00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,680
haven't heard of them because 
they're wonky going to make 

254
00:12:50,680 --> 00:12:52,000
money. 
Whereas the Andreessen companies

255
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,280
are a little bit more like in in
the zeitgeist, I think. 

256
00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:55,800
Yeah. 
Lightspeed I think is in like 

257
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,320
Glean and all other a couple of 
these other like enterprise 

258
00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,360
tools that are like doing quite 
well, yeah. 

259
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,080
Actually, Eric, I'm interested 
in your thoughts here because 

260
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,480
you have like a good kind of, 
you know, higher altitude view 

261
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,000
of maybe where VC is trending. 
But do you think in some ways 

262
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,680
Thrive has kind of taken the 
mantle of like the loudest, most

263
00:13:13,680 --> 00:13:16,720
banner company oriented firm 
where it seems like they 

264
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,360
basically go very heavily into 
things like open AI and in a 

265
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,280
much more public way and 
probably more money than than 

266
00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,760
Andreessen has. 
They're in Stripe, obviously. 

267
00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:27,840
They've just done a good job of 
grabbing drives. 

268
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,840
Crushies. 
I mean, I think like you, there 

269
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:35,400
are in some ways like the 
benchmark of today. 

270
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,360
They're not like Benchmark in 
that they have tons of money, 

271
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,320
but like Benchmark in that 
they're small. 

272
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,120
You get to work with the actual 
people. 

273
00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,320
There aren't a lot of like 
Andreessen is like who are all 

274
00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:46,960
these people? 
Like your names aren't on the 

275
00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:48,640
firm. 
Like I feel like Thrive is 

276
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:50,000
small. 
You're working with somebody. 

277
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,440
There's a sense that like you're
working with the firm, like 

278
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,560
you've got at it and like, you 
know, that, you know, Josh looms

279
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,680
super large there and Thrive has
been able to pull in money from 

280
00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:00,640
everywhere. 
Yeah. 

281
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,480
So and you know, I sort of 
teased them in one of the 

282
00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,320
newsletters that they were like 
the top tick investor of the 

283
00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,200
year. 
I forget what year that was, but

284
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,760
they've been, you know, I don't 
some random deals, but like 

285
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,120
click house and there's just a 
lot of things where they were 

286
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,920
saying, oh, this stuff is going 
up and AI has gone up. 

287
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,760
You know, they they were bullish
correctly. 

288
00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:23,280
And again, I think a lot of 
being in VC is being bullish, 

289
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,360
you know, at the right time, you
know? 

290
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,120
They've also kind of taken the 
mantle of being like the string 

291
00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,840
pullers within tech, too. 
I mean, I don't know how much 

292
00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:33,440
you want to go into it on this 
episode. 

293
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,080
And, you know, we've also been 
out. 

294
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,840
We should tell our listeners 
that Eric's been gone for a 

295
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,040
while on paternity leave. 
So what he knows about, you 

296
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,560
know, anything happening right 
now is time he's taking away 

297
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:47,400
from his new daughter. 
But you know, Thrive got this 

298
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:52,080
very gauzy profile published in 
a magazine that I had, not 

299
00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,400
Colossus, which I I I don't 
really know exactly what it is. 

300
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,120
Seems like some sort of a 
industry trade magazine that 

301
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,960
publishes puff pieces on. 
It's very much in my media 

302
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,920
entrepreneur radar. 
I mean, Patrick O'Shaughnessy 

303
00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,720
has a great podcast and he's 
built out a sort of media 

304
00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:09,360
company. 
Yeah. 

305
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,240
Yeah. 
The article is very glossy, 

306
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:11,920
though. 
Yeah. 

307
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,720
Yeah, and, and, and, you know, 
I, I encourage people to try to 

308
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,360
read the whole thing because I 
couldn't do it. 

309
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,240
But, you know, the fact that 
this was, you know, and, and 

310
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,760
they, they're very difficult to 
to profile as, as a fund and, 

311
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,320
and they're, you know, jobs. 
They're definitely precious. 

312
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,480
They're very precious, yeah. 
They they don't give a lot of 

313
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,520
media openings, if you will. 
Yeah, and but to be clear, I can

314
00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:35,560
say this on the show, I like a 
lot of the people there and and 

315
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,480
when I've talked to them, 
they're they're very friendly. 

316
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,520
It's not like they're a 
mysterious cabal of people. 

317
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,760
They just are pick and choosey 
about their publicity. 

318
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:47,120
But they kind of by doing this 
Colossus profile, they sort of 

319
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,280
did the Andreessen thing, you 
know, like going direct, like 

320
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,680
they kind of actualized it. 
Like whereas Andreessen spent so

321
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:53,720
much time building up a media 
entity. 

322
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:55,240
I understand that was something 
that they owned. 

323
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,280
But all the attention and 
momentum has headed, like we 

324
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,360
say, toward thrive right now. 
And they're also getting really 

325
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:05,000
nice articles written about at 
least Josh and the fund. 

326
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,640
And to me, it's like you, you 
see them owning the moment so 

327
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,000
much better than almost any 
other fund right now. 

328
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:12,040
And. 
I wonder where somebody 

329
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,000
Andreessen, to me, still has 
done the best on media. 

330
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,400
Like, I mean, they're a machine.
They're huge. 

331
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:21,920
They're sort of synonymous with 
technology and venture capital. 

332
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:27,040
It'll, it'll be interesting. 
I mean, you know, they're Mark 

333
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,520
and Ben are still very active. 
So they have that going for 

334
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,160
them. 
They have a podcast, they're out

335
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,040
there. 
You said earlier, like some of 

336
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,360
the people who've done the key 
and recent investments you were 

337
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,440
talking about like Jeff Jordan 
with Airbnb. 

338
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,320
But I think for the most part, a
lot of them are there. 

339
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,320
I mean, Chris Dixon is the 
crypto guy. 

340
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,360
He did Coinbase. 
That was key like Ben did data 

341
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:47,720
bricks. 
Like I don't know a lot. 

342
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:52,080
Some of the key investments they
are still around the hoop, but 

343
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,240
But Dr. Andreessen yeah, they're
both they're both strong. 

344
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:59,840
I'm not I'm not I don't think 
this like Colossus profile of 

345
00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,360
Josh. 
It like moves the needle that 

346
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,319
much. 
I don't know I I think it's good

347
00:17:04,319 --> 00:17:07,240
like Colossus like I think it's 
cool that they like prioritize 

348
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,920
writing and like people can be 
pro entrepreneur. 

349
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,960
I think we're in this era where 
it's like all the journalistic 

350
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,520
defensiveness about like a sort 
of captured media. 

351
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,040
I don't know, it's everywhere. 
Yeah, we talked about that a lot

352
00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:26,400
last week with Mike Solana. 
I, I guess the issue with 

353
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,840
Colossus was more, less the 
profile itself, which like, you 

354
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,240
know, your mileage may vary on 
how much you like that style of 

355
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,840
writing, but it was more like 
the declaration that like you 

356
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,920
don't need media anymore and you
know, there was a. 

357
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,840
But I just think there's a sense
among some of the text set and I

358
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,920
think arena, which is another 
one of these publications. 

359
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,800
They're like, oh, the great 
thing about magazine is it's 

360
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,120
like it's glossy. 
It's like somebody's smart was 

361
00:17:52,120 --> 00:17:55,880
paid to write something and then
your picture is there and that's

362
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:57,480
that's it. 
Like, you know, it's like the 

363
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,920
text is like, well, well 
composed. 

364
00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:02,160
I don't I don't know. 
I feel like they miss the fact 

365
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,360
that it's like that somebody 
truly independent, that somebody

366
00:18:05,360 --> 00:18:09,560
is hard to persuade was 
persuaded that you're like cool 

367
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,000
and good. 
That's that's to me what what 

368
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,840
matters in a lot of these media,
like marketing media sort of 

369
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,000
entities. 
They they give you the Sheen. 

370
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,120
They're like, oh, it's the good 
writing. 

371
00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:22,400
It's glossy, like you're great 
because somebody who's totally 

372
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,240
captured and is destined to say 
positive things about you said 

373
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,760
something positive. 
Like I, I just don't think 

374
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,360
that's going to have people know
who's like independent and whose

375
00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:33,880
voice is like, oh, wow, you had,
I mean, you know, that's 

376
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,480
certainly what I'm trying to 
create here, which is like, 

377
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:40,040
we're, we say what we think, we 
criticize people when we're 

378
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:41,840
persuaded. 
You know, Andreessen and I, 

379
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:42,960
we've thought about tons of 
stuff. 

380
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,040
They freeze me out all the time.
Like, but I went and we say, oh,

381
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:47,680
the performance looks pretty 
good. 

382
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,520
Like the, the idea is that 
should carry some weight because

383
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:51,960
it's like, there's this whole 
history. 

384
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,360
I have plenty of reasons just to
needle them, you know what I 

385
00:18:54,360 --> 00:18:56,360
mean? 
Whereas when you're getting this

386
00:18:56,360 --> 00:19:01,120
glowing profile from sort of an 
entity that's interested in 

387
00:19:01,120 --> 00:19:06,240
writing positive things about 
entrepreneurs and investors, how

388
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,800
much weight does that carry? 
Yeah, you're talking, I mean, 

389
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:10,920
it's kind of style over 
substance, right? 

390
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,000
Like the depth of where this is 
coming from. 

391
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,880
It has all the trappings of, you
know, a glowing magazine profile

392
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,400
with none of the actual gravitas
behind that of, you know, the 

393
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,520
solid reporting backing up the. 
Reputation and none of the oh, 

394
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,720
this could have been a really 
negative piece and like they 

395
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,240
were they like them, you know, 
you need a little bit of that. 

396
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,880
It could have gone in different 
ways, right? 

397
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,640
Right. 
Yeah, especially with, you know,

398
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,200
a successful firm or and a rich 
person who's married to a 

399
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,600
supermodel. 
Like, you do kind of need to 

400
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,360
overcome the inherent skepticism
of a reader to make a better 

401
00:19:43,360 --> 00:19:45,000
case as to why you care about 
them. 

402
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,160
If it's an audience that's 
already like, man, these guys 

403
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,040
are great and look how great 
they are. 

404
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,360
They they're telling me, I will 
say journalistically as someone 

405
00:19:51,360 --> 00:19:54,120
who covered, because one of the 
elements of the story of Thrive 

406
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,640
was the role that Josh Kushner 
played in, you know, Sam 

407
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:01,360
Altman's ouster from Open AI, 
exactly how much string pulling 

408
00:20:01,360 --> 00:20:05,760
he did to get him back on board.
I had some qualms with the way 

409
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,880
it was described and I 
understand everyone is the hero 

410
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,000
of their own narrative and 
right, you know, even though 

411
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:12,560
it's. 
Funny that it's the same moment 

412
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,160
Jared Kushner is clearly trying 
to get tons of credit for this 

413
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,720
Israel deal. 
Both the Kushner's are like 

414
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,240
savvy and that Jared's getting 
in the New York Times in places.

415
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,520
But both are clearly like 
moments of crisis. 

416
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,760
We're we're here. 
Yes, you could really trace the 

417
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,680
Israel Gaza deal back to the 
time in which Josh Kushner 

418
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,160
personally got Sam reinstalled 
back. 

419
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:34,880
That's the head of opening the 
eye and you're like, well, I got

420
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,400
to top this somehow. 
What's what's on my list? 

421
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:38,960
Oh, wait. 
Peace in the Middle East. 

422
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,320
Yeah, yeah, TBD on that one, by 
the way. 

423
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,120
But anyway, look, I, I by the 
way, the ratings apparently go 

424
00:20:46,120 --> 00:20:48,120
down on the podcast when we talk
too much about media. 

425
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:49,440
So I don't want to. 
I don't want to. 

426
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,400
Dwell too much on this one. 
I did it. 

427
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:52,520
I'm sorry. 
It's my fault. 

428
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,880
We can't help ourselves. 
It's navel gazing. 

429
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,760
But but Andreessen look, I think
the AI story is is still is 

430
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,240
still like everyone else is 
still to be told they have some,

431
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,680
you know, exposure to a lot of 
top companies. 

432
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,600
I'm interested to see where the 
XAX AI1 in particular will go. 

433
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,280
But you know they. 
Lost Igor Babushkin, who was 

434
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:13,760
like one of their key 
executives. 

435
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,120
We're having one of their Co 
founders speak at cerebral 

436
00:21:17,120 --> 00:21:20,960
valley on November 12th coming 
up so I'm we'll we'll be excited

437
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:25,280
to hear how things are going XAI
on stage. 

438
00:21:25,360 --> 00:21:30,000
But yeah, it's a, it's a company
that I, you know, I think people

439
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,040
had underestimated and I was 
like. 

440
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,200
I did I say it? 
Big things are coming and they 

441
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:40,960
they caught up, but then I feel 
like, you know, we need to see 

442
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,160
like revenue and stuff like that
come out of the company. 

443
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,680
Yeah, anyway, we'd love to do 
more stories on other VC funds 

444
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,640
returns, TVPI and DPI. 
Please keep sending them our way

445
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,320
and. 
Subscribe and you know our 

446
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,600
readers and our listeners, you 
guys are in the business. 

447
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,760
You know as much about this as 
we do. 

448
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,320
Please send me you know well 
your commentary is anonymous. 

449
00:22:01,360 --> 00:22:03,600
You know, if you say off the 
record, I'll take it off the 

450
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,400
record. 
Please send me your observations

451
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,080
on what what you think the 
return where you think the 

452
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,200
returns are strong and weak 
would be eager to hear from you.

453
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,240
We're just, we're all at 
newcomer.co, Eric. 

454
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,640
Yeah, we all have takes. 
You know, yeah, feel free to 

455
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,880
weigh in. 
Speaking of takes, let's check 

456
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,880
in on the state of hype within 
AI and where we're at in the 

457
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,720
cycle right now. 
It's been an interesting couple 

458
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,400
of weeks on that front. 
So we had Andre Carpathy 

459
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,200
appearing on the Dwarkesh 
podcast giving his, you know, 

460
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:43,320
fairly clear eyed. 
I wouldn't say skeptical or 

461
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,600
negative takes, but it 
definitely got a lot of people 

462
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,640
in the industry trying to either
defend AI or claiming that they 

463
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,000
knew all this whole time that it
was overhyped and not quite it 

464
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,960
was promised to be. 
It's an interesting piece also 

465
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,680
in the New York Times about 
Amazon and their plans to 

466
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,000
automate a lot of their back of 
house processes, which is of 

467
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,840
course, you know, robotics, but 
but AI as well. 

468
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,520
And then a lot of stuff going on
with open AI. 

469
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,480
And I mean, they're just a 
non-stop hype train over there 

470
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,640
with. 
There's a browser claiming. 

471
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,000
Have you tried any kind? 
Of browser they're they're 

472
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,680
claiming that they're solving 
unsolvable math problems. 

473
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,400
It's basically just, you know, 
Matt Damon and, and and goodwill

474
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,280
hunting, but. 
So isn't Matt Damon good at math

475
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,040
in goodwill hunting? 
Yeah, well, so was. 

476
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,440
So was the claim of open AI 
people? 

477
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,600
Yeah, No, I think it is. 
Well, I think the Karpati thing 

478
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,880
kind of summed up his appearance
on Dork Ash and his statements 

479
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,760
and kind of everyone's, you 
know, having a take about them 

480
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,000
from both the hype and the 
skepticism. 

481
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,520
It's not going far enough. 
It's sort of like if you give a 

482
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,800
nuanced state of play in the 
industry to someone, everyone is

483
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,840
going to have a problem with it 
depending on where they're 

484
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,080
coming from. 
Because he basically was saying,

485
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,520
I think, you know, that based on
his understanding at the 

486
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,840
technological level, things are 
very impressive. 

487
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,720
We still have a lot to go 
bullish on AI overall, but AGI 

488
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,960
is not going to show up in 2027 
like Dario and some other 

489
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,000
founders of the other big AI 
labs have said. 

490
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,520
And I think, you know, that 
level of nuance was certainly 

491
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,280
optimistic. 
He wasn't pessimistic. 

492
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,800
I think it was framed everywhere
like he, you know, is shitting 

493
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,880
on the future of AI and thinks 
it's all wrong. 

494
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,680
But. 
When Andre Carpathy speaks, the 

495
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,960
AI world listens. 
You know, this is the guy who 

496
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,360
came up with the term vibe 
coding. 

497
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:37,720
I think he's very intelligent 
and very sort of plain spoken 

498
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,160
and direct. 
He's not someone who puts all 

499
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,600
these sort of false linguistical
complications into his speech. 

500
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,400
He sort of says what he's 
thinking. 

501
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,080
He's trying to speak directly. 
And so I think just his style of

502
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,360
communication, his obvious 
intelligence and how close he is

503
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,800
to the development of this 
technology, people take what he 

504
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,960
has to say very seriously. 
And he's not. 

505
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:03,640
You know, we have people like 
Dario and Anthropic who, you 

506
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,840
know, I like he's spoken at 
Cerebral Valley. 

507
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,320
There's a lot to like about 
Anthropic but has made Santa. 

508
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,800
Roman politically too. 
I mean, he's like, yes. 

509
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,080
Yes, exactly. 
He's fighting with David Sachs. 

510
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,480
Everyone who fights with David 
Sachs, you know, enemy to my 

511
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,440
enemy. 
But the but you know, he's made 

512
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:25,000
some Dario has made some pretty 
grandiose predictions about the 

513
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,120
rate of AI improvement that I 
think at this point are not 

514
00:25:28,120 --> 00:25:30,680
coming true at at that rate of 
improvement. 

515
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,760
And Sam Altman, obviously at 
open AI, you know, sometimes 

516
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,760
he's saying we're overvalued and
sometimes, but he's always like 

517
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,960
talks in such big terms that it 
feels like hypey. 

518
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,600
Even when he's not being hypey, 
it feels like it's big. 

519
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,920
We need trillions of dollars. 
You know, we need more money 

520
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,560
that's been ever raised sort of 
thing. 

521
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,920
And so I think, you know, this 
Carpathy interview had a little 

522
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:57,320
bit more realism, which is a 
stance that, you know, we've, 

523
00:25:57,360 --> 00:26:00,600
we've taken in Cerebral Valley, 
which is just sort of like it's 

524
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,320
clear if you really work with, 
you know, Chachi BT clawed the 

525
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,960
models. 
There's a lot of capability 

526
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,160
there that, you know, if it had 
a little more guardrails, if it 

527
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,680
was handed to the consumer in a 
more prepackaged way. 

528
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,160
It seems, you know, we've seen 
that with coding, with all these

529
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,920
coding applications, if if you 
do that work, you connect it to 

530
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,200
data, there's a lot of value to 
be had there. 

531
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,000
And so I think, you know, the 
Andre point of view was like, 

532
00:26:26,120 --> 00:26:28,440
there's still all this value to 
be had connecting with the 

533
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,520
models can do right to, you 
know, all this technology and 

534
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,200
all this data, but this sort of 
sense that they're gonna get so 

535
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,960
much smarter. 
We're gonna have AGI tomorrow. 

536
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,120
He was he was pushing back on. 
That I think the point that he 

537
00:26:42,120 --> 00:26:45,720
really landed on here was in 
regards to agents, right? 

538
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,320
There's tons of venture capital 
hype around agents. 

539
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,080
Agents are being pitched 
everywhere is the next big 

540
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,160
thing. 
He basically said the industry 

541
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,320
is kind of overshooting the 
tooling with its present 

542
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,040
capability, which anyone who's 
kind of used these agents that 

543
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,240
are like claiming to be travel 
agents and book everything and 

544
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,440
do multi steps for you new 
already. 

545
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,200
And so it's kind of refreshing 
to have this very serious voice 

546
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,080
of technical leadership in AI 
speak to you honestly and say, 

547
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:12,840
yes, the agents are not quite 
there. 

548
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:17,280
That does not mean that AI is, 
sorry to the skeptics, all not 

549
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,240
going to work and won't ever get
there. 

550
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,040
It's just the timelines we need 
to be a little more realistic on

551
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,600
and we need to explore different
technical angles to make these 

552
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,360
things work. 
And maybe we haven't figured 

553
00:27:26,360 --> 00:27:29,040
those out yet. 
Well, the rise of agents was 

554
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,560
something super interesting to 
me when I was covering 

555
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,880
enterprises, enterprise 
businesses at the Wall Street 

556
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,080
Journal, because you basically 
saw the trajectory of AI go 

557
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,320
from, you know, Chachi, BT comes
out. 

558
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,080
It's a consumer phenomenon. 
Microsoft built their own search

559
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,840
engine and then basically 
Copilot was the term at that 

560
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,480
period. 
These were assistants that sit 

561
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,400
alongside you and can make you 
more efficient and can make your

562
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,840
job that much easier to do or 
help you write e-mail, shit like

563
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,320
that. 
And then with no major, in my 

564
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,600
opinion, technical breakthroughs
between the Copilot era agents 

565
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,040
just sort of appeared on the 
scene. 

566
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,000
And suddenly these things that 
were like debatable as to how 

567
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:08,360
good they really could work 
became even more essential and 

568
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,000
autonomous in what they were 
supposed to do for you. 

569
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,760
And the technology didn't seem 
like it took, you know, a major 

570
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,760
leap. 
And so I was kind of scratching 

571
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,280
my head this whole time seeing 
Microsoft specifically go from 

572
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,000
like, oh, we have this copilot 
tool and everyone should pay 

573
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,960
extra for Microsoft 365 so you 
can use their copilot too. 

574
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:27,360
Oh yeah. 
Now you're supposed to use 

575
00:28:27,360 --> 00:28:28,920
agents where it does all the 
shit for you. 

576
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,400
You know, obviously you want to 
show you that you're an AI 

577
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,160
forward company because that you
get a premium on your stock. 

578
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,360
And so you have to make all 
kinds of statements when it 

579
00:28:36,360 --> 00:28:39,680
comes to utility of this shit. 
Like they were just starting to 

580
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,120
figure out Co pilots and so now 
you're gonna start claiming 

581
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,240
there's agents. 
I just updated my Apple 

582
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,400
operating system, right? 
And if there's any company 

583
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,440
that's trying to force this AI 
thing that doesn't seem to have 

584
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,720
a view of what the actual value 
it drives, it's Apple, right? 

585
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,880
It promised all these phones 
based on Apple intelligence and 

586
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,880
they, they haven't really 
figured out what the value is. 

587
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,120
And it's like, you know, they 
they mess with your contacts and

588
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,440
they say, oh, here's who we 
think. 

589
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,240
But it's like, I had a nice 
favorite list. 

590
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,360
It was organized how how is your
like smaller, weirder version 

591
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,960
better than like my nicely 
organized 1. 

592
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:18,160
And so, yeah, IA lot of these 
companies have an incentive to, 

593
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,160
to force an AI narrative. 
I mean, Tom, you just wrote 

594
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,840
about Salesforce, which, you 
know, Marc Benioff has been like

595
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,600
agent force, agent force, agent 
force. 

596
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,840
I mean, he's been the most sort 
of egregious in terms of just 

597
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,760
having, you know, the name of 
his company AI. 

598
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,520
You know, he's a, he's a sales 
guy, you know, he knows how to 

599
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,920
try to associate, but that that 
sort of heavy-handed approach 

600
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,160
hasn't resulted in a good stock 
performance. 

601
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,360
No, certainly not because 
they're stuck in this position 

602
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,440
where, you know, you see the 
rise of these agents or AI 

603
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,360
companies. 
And it's like either someone 

604
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,320
like a sales force is going to 
be able to, you know, leverage 

605
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,040
off of that and be able to sell 
these tools to the customers. 

606
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,600
Or there's going to be a whole 
new wave of tools built by not 

607
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,160
sales force that are just going 
to replace all of SAS. 

608
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,720
And you've seen there would be 
like a negative feeling about 

609
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:09,160
SAS for like the last year or so
because of that worry. 

610
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,720
But the knock on sales force is 
that their agents don't work 

611
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:14,520
right. 
It's just like you're selling a 

612
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,720
product to people that have no 
real utility. 

613
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,160
It gets stuff wrong all the 
time. 

614
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,800
And, and I think that's what 
Carpathy was really trying to 

615
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,160
get at in his comments was like,
look, there is a world in which 

616
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:29,800
agents have incredible impact on
the economy and the way we do 

617
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,000
work and, and jobs and and the 
labor grid and all of these 

618
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,680
things, but we're not there yet.
And if you're selling it to 

619
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,000
people now with the claim that 
it's, you know, 11 tick away 

620
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,280
from AGI and one tick away from 
being able to replace a huge 

621
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,920
percentage of your workforce, 
you're bound to be disappointed.

622
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:46,240
It's going to fuck everything 
up. 

623
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:50,160
And I, I don't know. 
You know what's interesting to 

624
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:54,080
me with his comments is like how
much of the hype around AI and 

625
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,320
the amount of money that Sam is 
consistently able to raise or 

626
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:01,240
stock jumps that he's able to 
generate through announcements 

627
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,600
are built on the premise that 
AGI is just around the corner. 

628
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,480
Like how much value is there in 
just a good utility for the next

629
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,360
5-10 years if AGI just doesn't 
exist on the timeline that 

630
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:13,960
people like Dario have been 
claiming? 

631
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,000
I. 
Know we still have some of those

632
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,920
Edzitron fanboys hanging around 
just being like, what is this 

633
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:24,480
podcast I I still, you know, 
think the models themselves are 

634
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,440
so valuable. 
I talked to Chachi PT all day 

635
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,080
long like is it not like a key 
part of your lives? 

636
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:34,120
Like I feel like it's extremely 
valuable on day-to-day questions

637
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,440
relative to like Google. 
I don't know, Yeah. 

638
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,560
You guys don't agree or? 
No, I use it. 

639
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,600
I use it quite a bit. 
I've used it for helping me 

640
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,240
figure out like recipes and 
stuff. 

641
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,680
And it's a much better search 
tool for a lot of things. 

642
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,160
But it's not even search because
it does generate for you what 

643
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,640
you need, you know, and provide 
things for you. 

644
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,080
And it helps me, you know, 
proofread and things like that. 

645
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,720
I found it to be an incredibly 
useful tool. 

646
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:03,440
But I guess I do agree too, I 
think Kaprathi was getting at, 

647
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,960
which I think is where we land 
here is he, he was landing at 

648
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,160
how these can be great 
assistance and tools and this is

649
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:11,800
an evolution and they are 
better. 

650
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,800
But what the problem is is you 
want it to make fewer. 

651
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:17,400
He actually wrote this in his 
post. 

652
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,160
I want it to make fewer 
assumptions and ask, collaborate

653
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,520
with me when not sure about 
something. 

654
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,280
I want to learn along the way 
and become a better programmer, 

655
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,040
not just get served mountains of
code that I'm told worse. 

656
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,840
And I was like, that's kind of 
the through where we're kind of 

657
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,120
digging out of right now. 
But. 

658
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,360
But that doesn't mean at all 
that these aren't useful tools. 

659
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,640
Right. 
What do you want? 

660
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,560
What do you guys make about 
Dario and his claims 'cause he's

661
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,280
doesn't have an amazing track 
record right now of like 

662
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,160
timelines of when stuff is going
to happen. 

663
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,440
And the thing that I keep 
thinking about was his claim, I 

664
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,440
think a year ago that basically 
at this time now more than 50% 

665
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:53,800
of code would be generated by 
AI. 

666
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,560
And I don't know what the actual
number is, but everyone was 

667
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,920
dunking on that because we're 
clearly not even close to that 

668
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,440
right now. 
And it reminds me of yeah, yeah,

669
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:07,080
and it reminds me of, you know, 
the, the, the self driving era 

670
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:13,280
where there were also outlandish
claims about the timeline it 

671
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,760
would take for this technology 
to be St. ready and, and and and

672
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,560
they were way off. 
And I was super bearish about 

673
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,160
that. 
To be clear, at the time I was 

674
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,280
in Ubers in 2016, I was like, 
they're intervening all the 

675
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,680
time. 
We are not about to be in Ubers 

676
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,160
without. 
Well, Uber, Uber in particular 

677
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,880
didn't have record audit like 
their tech was bad. 

678
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,640
But that's when they had the 
acquisition was auto, yeah. 

679
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,000
I mean, there was a period where
Uber was really trying to assert

680
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:40,640
that it was going to be the 
leader in self driving. 

681
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:44,360
And I think I mean, you know, 
and come at us at Zitron haters 

682
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,520
or the haters that Edwardson 
brought to the podcast. 

683
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,800
But like I, you know I. 
Think I'd like to say to them 

684
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:51,320
they're they're shooting at us 
in the comments. 

685
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,480
It's our fucking podcast. 
We can talk. 

686
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,200
We're supposed to talk like 
whatever. 

687
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:56,960
They just want to hand over the 
mic to somebody else. 

688
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,840
Yeah, anyway, go on. 
Yeah. 

689
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,960
Get your piece on Eric that's. 
Your back, yeah, they're still 

690
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:05,440
comments on that episode. 
They. 

691
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,960
Can shit on me as much as they 
well, we're just talking about 

692
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,920
AI bullishness or not. 
I'm fine with the negative 

693
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,199
comments. 
I love the comments that are 

694
00:34:12,199 --> 00:34:14,080
like, I can't believe they've 
left the comments open. 

695
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,360
It's like, yeah, we can, we have
thick enough skin that we can 

696
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:20,280
take a little bit of criticism. 
What I don't get is that on my 

697
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:24,159
on our own podcast, we're not 
supposed like, wait, just 

698
00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:26,400
because you know that guy and 
he's on our podcast, we're not 

699
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,000
just like handing it over to him
to just say whatever he wants 

700
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:29,520
the whole time. 
I. 

701
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,040
Don't know, I'd like to see the 
tail of the tape. 

702
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,639
I like Ed and we've continued. 
We let him talk so much. 

703
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,159
Yeah, he had a lot of time. 
He had like the time of 

704
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:40,639
possession was strong for Ed in.
That episode. 

705
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:42,560
So I have no idea a new. 
Objection. 

706
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,360
Like if you're having like a 
through line argument, you need 

707
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,760
to hold some. 
It's like we're arguing about 

708
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,440
this thing and then you make 
points around it. 

709
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,440
He would just be like, oh what 
about energy, you know? 

710
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,760
Ohh anyway, I'm still still 
having flashbacks, clearly. 

711
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,480
Look, anyway, I'll, I'll bring 
these haters back here and 

712
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,040
saying like, I think self 
driving cars are really 

713
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,920
impressive. 
I think I I do pay a premium in 

714
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,840
San Francisco if I can take a 
Waymo versus an Uber. 

715
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,120
And a lot of the promises, yeah,
the timelines are way off, but 

716
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,000
the technology did pan out to be
non economical. 

717
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,280
There's all kinds of issues 
around like, you know, how much 

718
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,800
it costs to run these things. 
But like it proved itself at a 

719
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,560
different timeline than was 
initially predicted. 

720
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,520
And I guess the question is with
with AI, you know, is there a 

721
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,240
timeline that does make sense 
that that someone like Carpathy 

722
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:27,960
agrees with where we do reach 
AGI? 

723
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:32,960
Or is this capability of, you 
know, these models were Tachi BT

724
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,000
is now, which does seem like 
it's leveled off quite a bit. 

725
00:35:36,240 --> 00:35:40,400
Is that enough to, you know, 
meet the, the hype of something?

726
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,040
You know, it may not be to the 
level of displacement, but like 

727
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,760
there's a lot of utility. 
We're all seeing that in in 

728
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,560
these tools. 
And like, where does evaluation,

729
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:48,960
you know, net out with that sort
of thing? 

730
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,080
And I don't think he has an 
answer to that, but that to me 

731
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,080
is the question we should be 
asking in the next year or two. 

732
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,520
Hysterical, though unlike self 
driving cars, our whole economy 

733
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,520
seems staying on this question. 
Right self driving cars were 

734
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,840
more of like on the side. 
These companies can do this. 

735
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,080
This was a fad. 
And with this I do see. 

736
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:06,800
It is. 
Right. 

737
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:08,880
You know, kind of. 
Maybe you got a little annoyed 

738
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,040
that it's like, oh man, these 
companies are getting profiles 

739
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,080
that act like they're, you know,
geniuses when it like they can't

740
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,160
do what they say they can do. 
But like now I think we're 

741
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,160
underrating self driving cars. 
But the but the yeah, the AI 

742
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,800
stuff right now, I mean, just 
Nvidia's the most valuable 

743
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,960
company, you know, in the world.
It's it so much of our economy 

744
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:32,200
hangs on continued adoption of 
artificial. 

745
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,240
And, and specifically CapEx 
spending on data center growth 

746
00:36:35,240 --> 00:36:39,920
and that's like I would say 80 
to 90% the responsibility of Sam

747
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,640
and striking all these deals 
that are basically, you know, 

748
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,400
deals upon deals of, of data 
centers to be built. 

749
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,200
And so like, yeah, the point I 
guess you're making is like, 

750
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:51,840
yeah, it does need to be more 
than where it's at now. 

751
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,200
Like you're not going to be 
building all these data centers 

752
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,520
because AGI won't exist like 
that is, well, we'd like to. 

753
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,640
See another leap? 
You know, it's like, OK, Chachi 

754
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:05,800
PD has been great coding's cool,
but like, I feel like our minds 

755
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,440
haven't been blown, you know, a 
little bit right? 

756
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,280
I mean, we we get impatient. 
When's the next the video stuff 

757
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,800
is mine the. 
Video I was gonna say sora was a

758
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:17,560
big leap for the new sora app it
you can still which. 

759
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,640
Is still number one on the App 
Store by the way I checked. 

760
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,440
Is it OK? 
Interesting, yeah, I see. 

761
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,880
I see the ones that make it over
to TikTok but I I don't love 

762
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,600
them like. 
Well, there was, I will say 

763
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,960
this, this deep, this Sora video
of like a a pastor, you know, 

764
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:39,400
condemning billionaires went 
pretty viral over this week that

765
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,960
a lot of people fell for, 
including a lot of my. 

766
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:43,640
Friends, yeah, I like they are 
getting reality. 

767
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,960
Like I already hated the like I 
hate those. 

768
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,520
The people love those like skits
where it's like clearly these 

769
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,320
are actors, but they get mad at 
it in the comments. 

770
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,400
You know what I'm talking about 
where it's like, yeah, it's like

771
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,080
a husband and wife are fighting 
or something. 

772
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,040
But like all the comments, it's 
like, you know, treat it as if 

773
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,440
it was like real where they're 
like, this guy's a jerk or 

774
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:02,640
whatever. 
You know, it's like, but these 

775
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,240
are clearly actors. 
I feel like the sort sort of 

776
00:38:05,240 --> 00:38:06,680
thing is like the next evolution
of it. 

777
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:11,840
I just hate the media consumer 
that like buys into the fiction.

778
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,120
Like they don't, they don't care
like if it's real or not. 

779
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,160
They're like, oh, it feels real.
And so I'll just react to the 

780
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,520
character. 
Because it's like. 

781
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,360
Wouldn't it be great if you. 
Know this is happening. 

782
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,160
There's been a there's been a 
tick tock meme, I don't know if 

783
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:28,200
you've seen it, of umm, putting 
various historical figures in 

784
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,880
the NBA and talking about how 
like their career is sort of 

785
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,480
ending. 
So it's like Queen Elizabeth and

786
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,320
like in Celtics jersey being 
like I'm just sort of old now 

787
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:38,720
and like her like at the. 
Podium talking about. 

788
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,520
Tiring. 
And then it cuts to it's really 

789
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,840
fucking funny. 
I laugh every time like it's 

790
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,000
there's one with Queen 
Elizabeth, Winston Churchill. 

791
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,840
Who else has there been anyway? 
But so I watched them and I was 

792
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,360
like trying to show Rosa them 
and she's like, this is stupid. 

793
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,680
Stop showing this to me. 
But I and I feel kind of gross 

794
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,240
after I watch them too. 
Like I laugh at it. 

795
00:38:59,240 --> 00:39:01,600
And then in the moment I was 
like, this truly is slop. 

796
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,600
I mean, this is the lowest form 
of of entertainment. 

797
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,160
And I understand these things 
will evolve over time in terms 

798
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,440
of acceptance culturally. 
But as it stands now, like, 

799
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,040
yeah, it does entertain me. 
I do laugh, but I don't feel 

800
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,240
good about it. 
But but the dream is that this 

801
00:39:15,240 --> 00:39:18,560
is like some Tom specific video,
like the dead. 

802
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,360
They've figured out some sliver 
of human psychology, and for 

803
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,240
some reason you think this odd 
thing is funny. 

804
00:39:24,240 --> 00:39:27,120
And then they can target us all 
and we get all these weird like 

805
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,240
Freudian, like, oh, I like, you 
know, you, you have this weird, 

806
00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:33,360
I don't know, yeah, it's just 
funny to me that you, you find 

807
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:34,720
it amusing. 
You haven't found many other 

808
00:39:34,720 --> 00:39:37,240
people who find it funny. 
It's like this is this is the 

809
00:39:37,240 --> 00:39:40,560
real dream of these AI generated
videos that they can micro 

810
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,360
target everybody and. 
Right. 

811
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,040
And then? 
The panners to each of us. 

812
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,480
And it's engineered to be 
addictive, which is why there's 

813
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,760
like, you know, this existential
fear in Hollywood over like, how

814
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:52,640
can we compete against this, 
right? 

815
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,400
If it's all about a battle for 
attention, It's really hard to 

816
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:59,720
say like original story versus 
thing that like is almost to the

817
00:39:59,720 --> 00:40:02,280
precision of a casino in terms 
of how it. 

818
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,000
What is your attention amazing 
about language models that they 

819
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,200
haven't got enough credit for is
that they were all built around 

820
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,360
the truth. 
They were trying to be like, how

821
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,640
can we not hallucinate? 
How can we be as accurate as 

822
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,000
possible? 
Unlike, you know, social 

823
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,320
networks, which were built on 
engagement. 

824
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,800
And it's like, we'll deliver 
whatever we can get you to stay 

825
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,800
engaged. 
Obviously, AI is more and more 

826
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,480
involved in that, but we'll use 
the fact that the content has 

827
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:30,000
been created by humans as our 
excuse that we don't have to 

828
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,880
worry about the accuracy of 
these humans created it, even if

829
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,160
we decided to distribute some of
it and not others. 

830
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,400
And now obviously, something 
like Sora, you're like, screw 

831
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,240
it. 
Like let's just do something 

832
00:40:41,240 --> 00:40:44,080
based on engagement. 
And that, you know, that's a 

833
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,520
dark path. 
Well, right. 

834
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:50,720
And then the question is, and I 
talked to Varun Shetty, who's 

835
00:40:50,720 --> 00:40:53,200
the head of media partnerships 
and Open AI about this. 

836
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,880
Like are we supposed to view 
something like Sora as an off 

837
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,040
ramp as just sort of like some 
entertainment to the side while 

838
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,840
you guys are pursuing your path 
towards AGI or is it critical 

839
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,560
towards getting there? 
And his argument was the latter 

840
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,920
is that like, actually you can 
gain a huge amount of 

841
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,440
information about the real world
through generating videos. 

842
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,600
And I don't know the, the 
training process that it takes 

843
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,520
to do that, which is 
controversial on its own. 

844
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,720
And so that point it's like, 
we'll improve it. 

845
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,320
Like you guys have made this 
viral Sora app that has gotten a

846
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,280
ton of people addicted to it 
still number one on the App 

847
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:28,800
Store. 
Like right now Open AI has the 

848
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,960
number one and #2 slots on the 
App Store. 

849
00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:34,600
Like you guys should really be 
getting towards AGI now, like 

850
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,600
'cause this is all just an off 
ramp towards slop and 

851
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,600
entertainment and replacing of 
social media at the very least. 

852
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:44,560
That's disappointing to 
investors and, you know, society

853
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:46,280
at large. 
I'm sure it takes a huge amount 

854
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:50,400
of GPUs to get this stuff done. 
But yeah, it's like, I think 

855
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:51,920
they need to keep reminding 
people. 

856
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,000
And I think it's good for people
like Karpati to keep talking 

857
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,720
about that is like, we know what
the goal has to be. 

858
00:41:57,720 --> 00:42:01,480
Let's keep in mind what the you 
know what the timeline is and be

859
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:05,360
clear eyed about overhyping it. 
But like this is not about 

860
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,600
creating slob. 
I, I wanted to talk about, you 

861
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,560
know, the New York Times did 
this story on Amazon that 

862
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:15,480
basically said, you know, Amazon
is set on automating a bunch of 

863
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:17,720
its workers. 
You know, Amazon, I think is the

864
00:42:17,720 --> 00:42:21,160
second largest employer in the 
United States, a company that 

865
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,520
really believes in robotics, 
already has many robots and 

866
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:29,160
they're driving to have even 
more robots doing work and that 

867
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,200
this is part of their grand 
strategy. 

868
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,440
And obviously there are robots 
that are not built on language 

869
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:39,360
models, but you know, the 
improvements with foundation 

870
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:43,800
models and language models have 
improved computer vision and now

871
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,880
in some cases they're powering 
robots entirely. 

872
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:51,680
And so we're seeing improvements
in robots relate powered in some

873
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:56,920
cases by AI that could mean more
automation. 

874
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:00,160
I'm curious what reaction you 
guys had to that story. 

875
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,160
I mean, this has sort of been a 
long time coming for Amazon. 

876
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,480
Like they have been building up 
their workforce. 

877
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,840
It's always been this kind of 
flex situation where they, like,

878
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,640
over hire during the pandemic, 
and then they had to lay a bunch

879
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,680
of people off and that caused a 
huge amount of turmoil there. 

880
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,320
But there's no question that 
long term, this business wants 

881
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:23,400
technology allowed, you know, 
robots to be able to put stuff 

882
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,680
on and off shelves or whatever. 
That's where it was going to go.

883
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,600
So I was kind of surprised to 
see people mad about it. 

884
00:43:28,720 --> 00:43:31,400
I understand, like, yeah, people
losing their jobs is an 

885
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,800
upsetting prospect. 
But certainly given that it's, 

886
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,160
you know, to your point, 
probably one of the largest 

887
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:40,880
employers in the US, but at the 
I, I guess I agree with you, 

888
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:45,520
Tom, I was kind of surprised to 
see people kind of freak out 

889
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:49,200
about this story in that it 
seems like that's definitely was

890
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:52,080
the goal the whole time. 
I don't know it, it's as if it 

891
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,400
was something new, you know, as 
if it was something new that 

892
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:55,800
automation is where this was 
going. 

893
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:57,760
It's just smarter automation, 
frankly, for. 

894
00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:59,320
A lot. 
I just hated how ominous the 

895
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,040
story was. 
Like, I don't, yeah. 

896
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,600
I mean, Amazon's going to try 
and do things as cost 

897
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,440
effectively as possible. 
What? 

898
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:08,320
What? 
What else? 

899
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,280
Yeah, I mean, there, you know, 
and this one is more realistic 

900
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,440
than, like, drone delivery or 
other things that, you know, 

901
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:19,200
Amazon was more public about. 
But it's weird to see. 

902
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,760
You know, I remember, like, 
height of the pandemic, everyone

903
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,760
was looking at the way that 
Amazon was hiring all these 

904
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:26,240
people. 
And remember that movie Nomad 

905
00:44:26,240 --> 00:44:28,720
Land came out where you had 
Frances Mcdormand's character 

906
00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:32,600
working temporarily as like an 
Amazon, which was done with 

907
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,680
partnership with Amazon. 
So it wasn't an anti Amazon 

908
00:44:35,720 --> 00:44:36,880
thing. 
But we were all kind of 

909
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,040
wondering like, Oh my God, is 
like that going to be the new 

910
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,760
blue collar job for everyone 
across the country? 

911
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:46,760
And I, it's weird to see people 
looking at a job that previously

912
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:51,400
we thought was like beneath the 
dignity of most human beings. 

913
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:52,760
And, you know, they're anti 
union. 

914
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,400
And that really pissed off a lot
of people. 

915
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,440
The working conditions are 
really terrible. 

916
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,080
People were like, you know all 
the expose about people peeing 

917
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,120
in bottles to get the delivery 
quotas met, that kind of stuff. 

918
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,600
A lot of outrage about the jobs 
before. 

919
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,080
Yeah, and you know, Amazon did 
respond to that stuff and start 

920
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,240
paying people more, you know, 
out of public pressure from 

921
00:45:10,240 --> 00:45:13,160
people from like Bernie Sanders.
And remember AOC was 

922
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:17,680
successfully got Amazon to not 
build HQ 2IN and around New 

923
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,840
York, which kind of was an early
win for her in the left wing 

924
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,880
movement. 
So I, yeah, I don't know, like 

925
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:28,240
this is just the direction of 
technology and has been for like

926
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,840
dozens of years. 
They've automated huge portions 

927
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,320
of assembly lines in, in, in car
manufacturing and stuff too. 

928
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:39,040
I mean, this is not like skilled
labor in most respects. 

929
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,640
This is putting stuff in boxes. 
And I'd love there to be a world

930
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:45,480
where people that had those jobs
had more intellectually 

931
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,520
inspiring things to do or 
there's a Ubi that gets people 

932
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,880
to do other things. 
I mean, that to me seems a more 

933
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,240
reasonable conversation than 
worrying about, right? 

934
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:59,200
Companies should automate 
boring, dumb stuff nobody wants 

935
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,360
to do, and we should elect 
politicians who create a safety 

936
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,560
net so that every American has 
healthcare and nobody starves. 

937
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:09,360
But we shouldn't handicap Great 
American companies and say they 

938
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:14,480
can't use current technology to,
you know, get me my, I don't 

939
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:18,000
know, battery packs here 
slightly faster or whatever. 

940
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:21,640
I ordered from Amazon, you know,
in the last last day or two. 

941
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,160
Yeah, I don't know. 
And true leftists, I think, 

942
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:25,720
understand that as well. 
I mean. 

943
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,920
Do they, I don't know, I just 
feel like what annoys me about 

944
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,160
this kind of story is the, you 
know, the haters from both 

945
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,960
sides. 
The haters are like AI sucks and

946
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,120
AI is killing all the jobs. 
It's like, which is it? 

947
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:37,640
That's that's what drives me 
crazy. 

948
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:41,280
This sort of like just ominous 
people who feel like they're 

949
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:45,440
driven by like ominous vibes and
just like depressives reacting 

950
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,760
to everything with that is their
sort of lens and then find a way

951
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:53,120
to be negative about everything.
That that's what drives me crazy

952
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:54,640
just socially and 
interpersonally. 

953
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:58,440
I realize it's a small concern, 
but that's why these, I don't 

954
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,680
know, the The New York Times 
story just had that sort of like

955
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,160
negative feel. 
It's like what? 

956
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:07,800
Yeah. 
Yeah, I understand the concern 

957
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:09,520
and fear about it. 
I mean, if we are talking, I 

958
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:13,640
mean, there are cities that were
basically destroyed economically

959
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,400
because of, I mean, 
globalization, but also the 

960
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,440
automation of a lot of jobs Like
Detroit, you know, in many ways 

961
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:23,400
has not really recovered from 
many of these kind of third 

962
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,760
party assembly line businesses, 
not, you know, meeting as many 

963
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:28,360
people on the line as they used 
to. 

964
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:31,280
And, you know, I, I don't think 
the job of a union should 

965
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:35,000
primarily be to stop the 
progress of technology. 

966
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:36,880
I'm seeing a lot of this 
happening in Hollywood too, 

967
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:38,760
right, With AI. 
It's like, what role does a 

968
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,160
union have to play when you 
start to see a potential job 

969
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:43,800
displacing technology come 
about? 

970
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,680
And really, your job is to 
protect the livelihoods of the 

971
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,120
people who you know are affected
by it. 

972
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:52,280
But trying to stop something 
from existing just doesn't. 

973
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,800
It doesn't fit with like the 
March of time. 

974
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,920
There's just not great success 
stories of stopping technology 

975
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,000
from existing so. 
I well the worst ones are these 

976
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:04,440
attempts to stop like ports from
automating moving like 

977
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,680
containers around which is just 
insane. 

978
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:10,680
Oh, like the dock workers unions
and. 

979
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,000
Yeah, yeah. 
Trying to block, you know, the 

980
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:17,160
automation of ports, which in 
our entire economy rests on 

981
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,280
moving these things in and out. 
Yeah, I feel like they should 

982
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,560
also be looking more at like the
types of entities that are 

983
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:26,120
buying ports in America, which 
are like also fairly insane. 

984
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:27,960
I mean, you have a huge amount 
of Middle Eastern money 

985
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,040
essentially buying up and 
building new ports in the 

986
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:31,160
country. 
It's the only people who are 

987
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:34,920
investing in that sort of stuff.
So I'd be more interested 

988
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,280
following the money there rather
than saying we need to protect 

989
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,200
man. 
I don't want to get the dock 

990
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:43,120
workers pissed off at us and get
that. 

991
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:44,520
Really. 
Comment section is full of 

992
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:45,200
Steven. 
No. 

993
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:47,520
People who the dock. 
Workers. 

994
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:53,240
Finding our podcast No. 
I'm not a union diehard, I. 

995
00:48:53,240 --> 00:48:55,160
Know I'm the leftist on this 
podcast too. 

996
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,160
Wait, I'm the former Union 
maiden, but. 

997
00:48:58,160 --> 00:48:58,760
Are you? 
Yeah. 

998
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,960
Yeah. 
Maiden was the title. 

999
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,320
Was my nickname. 
No, no, I was involved in the 

1000
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:09,000
Business Insider union, but I 
feel like the attitude there has

1001
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:13,280
always been, you know, much more
just, I guess not wanting your 

1002
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:17,800
job completely automated. 
But it wasn't resistant to AI 

1003
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,560
coming into The Newsroom at all.
It was just like, how do we use 

1004
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:22,400
this strategically? 
Do we use this to actually write

1005
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,480
copy? 
That's kind of the line that we 

1006
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:26,240
land on, but you know, for 
brainstorming. 

1007
00:49:26,240 --> 00:49:29,840
And I mean, I feel like as an 
editorial rule, you know, I 

1008
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,600
think it's kind of where it's 
landed in a lot of other news 

1009
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,080
companies to, you know, not 
having, you know, plug your 

1010
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,000
story into ChatGPT and just 
publish it, you know, not being 

1011
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,960
what's expected of you well. 
Within journalism to like the 

1012
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,560
types of jobs that an AI could 
do or would be doing or again, 

1013
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:49,160
not very good jobs. 
I mean, certainly copy editors, 

1014
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:50,280
yeah. 
I don't even think those people 

1015
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,560
were part of the BI union, but 
it's like. 

1016
00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:56,320
They were but your article. 
Yeah, our human copywriter still

1017
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,520
generally outperforms Chachi BT,
but. 

1018
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:02,160
They chachi BT yeah is not quite
as doesn't catch all the pieces 

1019
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,040
as as a. 
Copywriter also, it hasn't. 

1020
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:07,280
It's hard to teach it, obviously
our house style and things like 

1021
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:09,240
that, but I'm sure that's 
solvable. 

1022
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,080
All right, anyway, that's our 
episode. 

1023
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,520
Thanks Eric for for dropping on 
in. 

1024
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:15,160
I think I don't know what are 
you going? 

1025
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:16,800
To be in for a. 
Couple more episodes or what's 

1026
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:18,000
the no? 
No, I'm back. 

1027
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,880
Well, we're next. 
We're going to I think Cerebral 

1028
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:22,800
Valley is going to take over the
podcast. 

1029
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,120
Max Child and James Wilsterman 
will be back on. 

1030
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,880
We have, we love doing our draft
of AI startups. 

1031
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:32,480
So if you thought this was, you 
know, somewhat pro AI, we're 

1032
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:37,560
about to take AI by the fire 
hose for the next couple 

1033
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,080
episodes. 
So that'll be a lot of fun. 

1034
00:50:39,240 --> 00:50:41,640
I mean, we're, you know, we're 
going to be prepping for all 

1035
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:45,720
these interviews with the CEO's 
of top AI companies. 

1036
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:52,480
We have execs from Anthropic, 
XAI, Replit, Versal Speaking and

1037
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,600
so. 
We're Co versal. 

1038
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:54,720
I'm sorry, I didn't know this is
that. 

1039
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,040
Yeah, Guillermo is speaking. 
All right, Guillermo, we got 

1040
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,760
some questions for you. 
Interesting photo OPS that I'm 

1041
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,240
sure will come up at some point 
in the conversation. 

1042
00:51:02,240 --> 00:51:04,200
She's. 
Just we, well, we have both 

1043
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,960
Amjad at Replit and Guillermo 
Versal speaking, but I think 

1044
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,800
we're and they've feuded a 
little on Twitter over 

1045
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,160
international politics, but that
is not the theme of our 

1046
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,400
conference. 
We're talking about AI, but 

1047
00:51:16,720 --> 00:51:18,280
yeah, they. 
I don't think they're. 

1048
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:20,200
On the same panel. 
No, no. 

1049
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,240
And I don't think we're putting 
them next to each other. 

1050
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:24,560
This isn't. 
This isn't Dario and David Sacks

1051
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:26,640
showing up at the Benioff party 
last week. 

1052
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,680
Oh, how was that? 
Did they interact? 

1053
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:30,760
Nope, Nope. 
And Dario? 

1054
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,400
I overheard him. 
Here's a blind item for you. 

1055
00:51:33,720 --> 00:51:36,400
Dario kind of muttering to, I 
believe his PR person. 

1056
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:40,560
Why am I here? 
Oh my God. 

1057
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:45,000
So we we love a good pairing 
here at here in tech, but 

1058
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:48,280
specifically at the the newcomer
sub Repo Valley conference. 

1059
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:53,000
Yeah, so that'll be fun. 
And this comes out. 

1060
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,040
Oh yeah, this will come out this
week. 

1061
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:58,880
I, I should have a post in, in 
the newsletter about my child. 

1062
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:02,360
I, I, I've sort of, you know, I,
there's an Instagram post, you 

1063
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:05,040
know, they're, they're bread 
crumbs, but I will talk about 

1064
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,240
having a child and I've quietly 
been on paternity leave. 

1065
00:52:08,240 --> 00:52:11,600
I appreciate you guys stewarding
the podcast in my absence. 

1066
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,600
It feels you had some good 
episodes and I think we keep 

1067
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:17,520
learning and improving the show 
and we've been punching up 

1068
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:21,400
production and so excited to 
yeah, pick up from where you 

1069
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,680
guys left off and keep keep 
growing the audience and 

1070
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,360
improving the show. 
And we love your feedback. 

1071
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:31,040
We subscribe to the newsletter, 
follow along and definitely tell

1072
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,160
us what's working. 
You know, we want we want 

1073
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:33,920
feedback. 
What do you like? 

1074
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,160
What don't you like? 
Send us an e-mail. 

1075
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,120
Alright, thanks everyone. 
See you next. 

1076
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:39,080
Week. 
Alright, thank you. 

1077
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:39,880
See you. 
Bye. 

1078
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,200
Thank you for tuning in to this 
week's episode of the podcast. 

1079
00:52:42,240 --> 00:52:44,080
If you're new here, please like 
and subscribe. 

1080
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,680
It really helps out the channel.
Listen in for new episodes every

1081
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:48,160
week, wherever you get your 
podcasts.

