1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,040 So my new product that I'm going to take years to develop, I 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,960 might be able to sell to an existing customer for less. 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,360 That's a bitter pill, Swallow. Trivialize humans by saying 4 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,920 you're just an NPC. Now we're going to have agentic 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,600 NPCS that are. Very flush. 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:19,600 Send our digital twins over to to Yankee Stadium and send us 7 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,760 pictures like so. You could be social evil when 8 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:23,920 you're working. Today on the Newcomer podcast, 9 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,120 an old friend, Rick Heitzman, one of New York's most iconic 10 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,800 venture capitalists. He Co founded first Mark Capital 11 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,560 back in 2008 when betting on New York as a tech hub felt like a 12 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:35,680 contrarian take. He's invested in a lot of 13 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,160 companies, you know, love or maybe hey, Pinterest, Airbnb, 14 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,800 Riot Games, DraftKings and Discord. 15 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,400 So he's going to help us make sense of what could be MW IP OS 16 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,000 coming later this year with SpaceX, open AI and potentially 17 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,080 anthropic. This episode is all business 18 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,920 seed rounds, valuations, IP OS, what's not to love? 19 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:06,120 Here's the episode. Rick Heisman, thanks for joining 20 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,080 the Newcomer Podcast. It's awesome man. 21 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,320 Be good to be here. I only have been on in a long, 22 00:01:10,320 --> 00:01:12,800 long time, so it's great to be back. 23 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,120 We've known each other for a long time, so it's fantastic. 24 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,040 Great to do it in person. I'm excited about this 25 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:19,240 conversation. You know, if you've been 26 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,920 watching the channel, we've veered into the political This, 27 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,680 this is business. If there ever was business, I 28 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,440 like talking to you because you're a startup guy. 29 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,040 You invest in early stage startups, but you're also in New 30 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,440 York. You talk to the bankers. 31 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,600 You have a sense of the capital markets and how startups 32 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,000 eventually go public. I feel like there are a lot of 33 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,240 financial people who want one or the other and it's hard to find 34 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,200 both so great. Way to talk to you. 35 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:43,800 It's good to be like that, man. You know, we, we think about it 36 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,720 in the power law companies, right? 37 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:50,120 The companies that generate most of our returns usually generate 38 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,360 those in the public markets. So you have to be public market 39 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,160 aware to really understand where your returns are coming from. 40 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:01,720 And as much as VCs like to be, you know, pickers where they 41 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,400 like to be style makers, they like to be podcasters, you know, 42 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,039 we view our job as being asset managers who actually have to 43 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:12,320 think about not only buying but also selling security. 44 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:13,240 You have to get the time in, right. 45 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:19,000 I think that's sort of something right In and out yes, so 2026 46 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:23,560 could be an insane year for public investors and getting 47 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:27,320 access to tech stocks. You know SpaceX, the now sort of 48 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:33,760 ultra merged Elon company should could go public open AI could go 49 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:38,320 public. Obviously we've just gone to to 50 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:42,920 war in Iran like and you know, as you mentioned to me, bankers 51 00:02:42,920 --> 00:02:45,160 don't love wars. Companies don't love wars. 52 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:46,200 They want I'm. Not sure who loves wars. 53 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:46,840 Right. Exactly. 54 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:48,360 Nobody does. So yeah. 55 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,440 Do you think those IPOs are likely to happen this? 56 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,120 Year, I think they're so likely to happen. 57 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,200 You know, as we know the world shifts very quickly. 58 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,200 So so there's probably two things I think you alluded to 59 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,680 the market hates uncertainty and you know what are the most 60 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,400 uncertain companies previously private companies are getting 61 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,520 ready to go public. What else creates uncertainty? 62 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,720 Uncertain regulatory environments, things like 63 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,000 tariffs and things like an uncertain presidency. 64 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,000 And then what else creates uncertainty? 65 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,120 Wars, you know, unstable macroeconomic times, very 66 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:24,120 volatile currencies. So this is not a great time for 67 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,120 IPOs. I don't know if anyone would 68 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,160 anticipated this war. I don't know if anyone would 69 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,000 anticipated, you know, these changes with the Supreme Court 70 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,280 and tariffs or all these things. But I think people were feeling 71 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,960 good about an IPO market. And then there's probably going 72 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:39,800 to be one of two things. And I think we talked a little 73 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,360 bit about this sooner. Could smaller companies slide in 74 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,600 and you know, say, hey, here are interesting companies, might be 75 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,320 great companies. You know, these are founders who 76 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,680 worked very hard for a decade or more building a couple $100 77 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,480 million company, even a billion dollar company that could go 78 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,560 public and maybe Q2 after they do their annual audit. 79 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,240 And then what does it mean for these mega companies? 80 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,480 They're going to raise $50 billion plus. 81 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:10,080 So you talked about open AI and thropic maybe Stripe depending 82 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,600 on where they wind up and obviously SpaceX that they will 83 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,079 have such gravity. Rank Make your prediction on the 84 00:04:17,079 --> 00:04:18,839 most likely to least likely of of. 85 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,399 Those I think SpaceX is definitely is going to go. 86 00:04:21,399 --> 00:04:24,200 It needs it. Or I think it probably needs at 87 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:29,080 least because I think it's less capital consumptive than maybe 88 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,760 some of the other ones. I would say, you know, if I 89 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,680 would, if I was picking a bit ago, I, I, you know, now that 90 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:39,680 this is this mega Elon company, mega Elon company probably does 91 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,640 need some capital, especially if they're going to be providing 92 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,160 Internet from space and doing all kinds of different stuff. 93 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:51,200 That's still a bit unclear. But you know, the main the main 94 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:56,040 thing that's going to drive that IPO is going to be Elon and but 95 00:04:56,040 --> 00:05:00,040 you know, open AI seems like the company that needs to go public 96 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,760 just talking about how much. Money it wants to spend so. 97 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,160 Yeah, just just raise more money in the private markets and 98 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,240 probably for the first time in, in, you know, in history or my 99 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,640 history, and I go back in the markets to the 90s, that 100 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,160 companies are going to run out of private capital. 101 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:21,600 I mean, SpaceX open AI have accessed every bucket, every 102 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:26,760 pocket, every sofa cushion of private capital and they're 103 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,880 about done. And, and if there was any more 104 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,280 money to come, it would be sovereign wealth. 105 00:05:30,280 --> 00:05:32,280 And that, you know, the Middle East is not tied up. 106 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,400 Yes, they have. They have their they have their 107 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,800 other problems and the and the world's more uncertain. 108 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,440 And it seems like I, I, I don't know if you scrutinize it, but 109 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,640 the reporting the Amazon investment in Open AI seemed 110 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,320 like there was some potential IPO. 111 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:51,920 Yeah, there's there's some stuff like it'll be interesting in the 112 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:53,640 S ones to actually read the details. 113 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,400 Definitely if you think about everything from what is that, 114 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,160 what does that mean? What are some of the NVIDIA 115 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,640 deals mean? What does you know, what do some 116 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,800 of the private credit things people have done off balance 117 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,320 sheet? You know, there's one reported 118 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:12,080 at X dot AI where they did a massive private credit deal to 119 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:15,040 buy in video, which video also participated in equity. 120 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:20,240 So the disclosure around them will keep you busy for weeks. 121 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,240 Definitely. So SpaceX number one, open AI 122 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,160 #2. Open AI #2 Anthropic, you know, 123 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:28,960 you know, Dario famously says. You know, I don't know, maybe 124 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,080 next year I'm out of money, or maybe next year I'm a trillion 125 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,560 dollar company. I don't think he's going to be 126 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,640 out of money, but I think that they're probably #3. 127 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:39,560 Venture capitalists are very excited about that. 128 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:42,480 I mean obviously VCC only. Have So we've never seen a 129 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,360 company scale like this, right? Some of these companies have 130 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,240 scaled like things we've never seen before. 131 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,600 The consumer adoption of open AI is amazing, just the revenue 132 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,840 scale of Anthropics amazing. And then the market power of 133 00:06:55,840 --> 00:06:59,520 Anthropics really amazing if you know, they just can announce a 134 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,000 I've never seen a private company just kind of announce a 135 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,680 product and crash a whole public sector. 136 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,320 And that's just going to be really interesting to see. 137 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,920 And you know, it's aside from a centrini of just being able to 138 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,320 say, you know, Anthropic got into security and that sectors 139 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,680 down 10 plus. And you know, you know, just 140 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,560 well, we're giving commentary on anthropic. 141 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,840 You know, once it's Simo. This fight with the Defense 142 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,240 Department was terrible. On the other hand, anthropic so 143 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,400 weak with consumers. If every you know, Lib mom is 144 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,280 about to go get and clawed. It seems like they're getting 145 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:34,840 huge download numbers. So it could. 146 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,800 Yes, there's like consumer, you don't know what it what that 147 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,840 means. And then you also don't know how 148 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,040 this changes, right. I mean, I think, you know, the 149 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:47,080 current administration has had back and forth with every single 150 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,920 company where they've been on the naughty list and I'm on the 151 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:51,320 nice list. All of a sudden the government 152 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,600 winds up in 10% and everything and everyone's off to the races. 153 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,680 And that could be prediction markets where chip companies? 154 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,760 Well, in your portfolio, probably the buzziest is Discord 155 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,240 that has had some reporting around there. 156 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,800 There are some others that are sort of in the mix that could 157 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,960 potentially go. And I think that everybody's 158 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,480 kind of waiting. You know, there's this weird 159 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,840 time in the market now where everyone has to finish their 160 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,280 audit and that kind of will probably take another couple 161 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:19,920 weeks if you're on an annual cycle. 162 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,840 Certain SAS companies are on a January fiscal year end. 163 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,480 So that takes time. So it's traditionally Q2 is a 164 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,320 time companies will get ready to go. 165 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,920 And I think you saw probably as good as a backlog as you've seen 166 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,720 in years that you know, it was, it was as bad of a time as 167 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,120 you've seen in years between 2223 and 24. 168 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,360 The market started to open up a little bit across the board, 169 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:42,240 right? We saw some crypto IP OS, we saw 170 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,600 fintech IP OS, we saw traditional SAS IP OS with 171 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,520 things like Figma. And now people thought, hey, 172 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:51,800 it's going to be open and it's going to be open for companies 173 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,200 of all types, both sectors wise and size wise. 174 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:59,200 And now all this uncertainty is, is, is kind of hitting a pause 175 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,360 button. And there's, there's probably 2 176 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,480 uncertainties that people are thinking about. 1 is macro 177 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,560 uncertainty, war, trade, regulatory. 178 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,800 And then what's going to be the gravity that these mega guys 179 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:13,920 have? And even if you're doing a 180 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,280 billion dollars in revenue, you're profitable, you're 181 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:20,400 growing well, no one care because everyone's just staring 182 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:24,920 at SpaceX open eye anthropic and trying to figure out both and I 183 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,400 would also in. Terms of like the retail story 184 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,440 or? I mean, even, yeah, I've heard 185 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,320 from some companies the it's, you know, getting banker 186 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:38,240 interest because bankers are like, oh, if I could raise 50 187 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,960 billion from Anthropic, this is going to be a huge year for me, 188 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,640 for my firm. So I got to stay close to 189 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,480 Anthropic. I'm not going to be bothered 190 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:50,800 with a, which was sort of a great IPO, $500 million IPO. 191 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,080 If I could just be part of that syndicate. 192 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,200 I need to focus on, you know, where the money is. 193 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:01,400 Say this is a thought exercise like say SpaceX or Anthropic did 194 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,440 their last fundraise on the public markets versus the 195 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:05,840 private. Do you have an intuition of 196 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,120 where they would have gotten a better price? 197 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:12,440 Like they stay public, they use capital scarce, they leave room 198 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,960 for sort of the growth in valuations or or do you think 199 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,440 you know, in some ways the private markets have become more 200 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,400 bullish than the public? Market, it's it's the age-old 201 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:22,600 question. I mean if you look at the 202 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,120 secondary markets, it definitely depends on buzz. 203 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,720 So we have companies in our portfolio so that we we keep an 204 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:33,400 eye on those very increasingly liquid secondary markets for 205 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,840 probably the first top 20 or so positions we just named about 206 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,280 you know, five or seven of them. There's probably another 15 207 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:44,000 companies that we can rattle off that have liquid enough markets 208 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,400 that the trading price matters. The buzziest ones traded a 209 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,120 premium to last round. The ones who are not as buzzy 210 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:52,600 traded discount. And you think? 211 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:54,360 That tracks with the public market and that I. 212 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,640 Think that that's a better predictor of public markets than 213 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,440 anything else. And you know, historically you 214 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,120 and it's also because they raised so much money and those 215 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,960 syndicates are so broad, tending to be with crossover investors, 216 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:08,720 right? So if you see a a Bailey 217 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,720 Gifford, a Fidelity, a Black Rock investing in a big private 218 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:16,960 round, they're kind of pricing it like an IPOI mean that whole 219 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:21,000 part of the market has been somewhat wiped out of small cap 220 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,720 tech investing. And that used to be, used to be 221 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,520 going back to the 90s, there used to become like a $300 222 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,720 million market cap where you'd be, you have a whole sector of 223 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,360 people that would follow it from 300 to 3 billion. 224 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,680 And it was somewhat inefficient part of the market, really good 225 00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:39,360 part of the market that billions of dollars were invested in. 226 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,760 And that just doesn't exist. So you you predicted SpaceX 227 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,720 opener would probably still go what any other predictions about 228 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,800 what you think happens the anthropic? 229 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:54,840 Goes, I think, I think, I think Stripe waits till next year. 230 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,440 Stripe. Never wants to go public. 231 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:57,720 I don't. Think Stripe ever wants to go 232 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,320 public? They have a great business. 233 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:04,000 They're able to, you know, the things that they need to do of 234 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,600 raising capital and providing early employees and investors 235 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:11,760 liquidity. I I'd heard. 236 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,440 Chatter that thrive was sort of signaling to people you should 237 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,720 never go public like we'll find we'll do vehicles and there's 238 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:22,040 this argument that there's this sort of private investor class 239 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,560 that has an incentive It's like if I'm going to get exclusive 240 00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:27,000 access, you don't need to get scrutinized on the public 241 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,600 markets. I'll price you, you know well, I 242 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:33,320 don't know what what do you make of does Stripe ever need to go 243 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,520 public it. Doesn't it? 244 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,840 Doesn't because they're getting the benefits of being in the 245 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,000 public market of liquidity and capital. 246 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,160 Is there some other reason that they need a depth of capital 247 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:47,760 they can't get in the private markets? 248 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,360 As the private markets have evolved, there's a tremendous 249 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,880 depth of capital. Like, you know, 20 years ago you 250 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,240 weren't seeing sovereigns, you weren't seeing large 251 00:12:56,240 --> 00:13:00,160 institutional LP's who are Co investing in these large rounds. 252 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,640 And it's two things. It's companies are wanting to 253 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,160 stay private longer. What you're seeing is bigger 254 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,040 outcomes in when the companies do go public. 255 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:11,000 So the venture capitalists who stick with them are being 256 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:15,160 rewarded tremendously. And then you're seeing an 257 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:20,480 absence of, you know, whether institutions or public market 258 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,200 investors being able to participate in the small cap 259 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,560 tech, They're going back to the private markets. 260 00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:29,880 So the venture capital entries totally subsumed that whole 261 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:34,360 sector. And they've done it kind of 262 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:39,360 somewhat slowly and quietly and maybe, you know, at least and we 263 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:45,000 have a growth fund unintentionally and, but I think 264 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,240 you're seeing great value creation there. 265 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,640 And I think the LP's in the and the institutional community is 266 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,440 saying, hey, if I want access to the best companies, I have to 267 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,160 get it through the best venture capitalists all. 268 00:13:56,160 --> 00:14:01,160 Right we have to talk SAS apocalypse yes are you in the 269 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:05,840 abstract sort of buyer seller of figma like what what's your to 270 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,360 pull one or you know yeah I. Know, I know. 271 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:12,000 I know a little bit about Figma. I know they put up great 272 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:16,560 numbers, right, 136% net dollar retention, yeah. 273 00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:18,400 You got more numbers on it than I do off the top of my. 274 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,920 Head yeah, they grew about, they grew about 40%. 275 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:25,000 So they're they're back to being a rule of 40 company. 276 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:28,440 You know, they've gotten beaten up in the public markets. 277 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,760 I think they're down about 70%, you know, depending on the day 278 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,080 this comes out. So that's a very, very good 279 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,800 company. You know, probably the best SAS 280 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,480 software company to a public last year, maybe the one of the 281 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:44,360 best companies the last couple of years, excellent CEO and 282 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,240 transitioning into AI. So I haven't followed the story 283 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,880 completely, but I followed it through the IPO and they had a 284 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,080 whole interview strategy at one of our. 285 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,000 Events last year, the CEO. Yeah, yeah. 286 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,480 And they have, you know, they're responding to the vibe coding 287 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:57,880 thesis. Yeah, they're really trying to 288 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,440 follow the person is trying. To evolve that, I mean they're, 289 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,320 they're competing on the edge with, you know, the replets, the 290 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,720 replets and Lovables over here, obviously competing a little bit 291 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,160 with Adobe on the collaboration side across SAS, you know, they, 292 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,200 they have a pretty big market space. 293 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,840 So I think that, you know, like a lot of other things, if you 294 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:21,360 have a big market, you have an excellent CEO, hopefully when 295 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,680 somebody else throws the baby out with the bathwater, that's a 296 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,080 good opportunity. I think some companies, and it's 297 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,320 no different than how we think about SAS and software investing 298 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,880 today, that you have to be two things. 299 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,040 You can't just be workflow because that's being 300 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,560 commoditized incredibly quickly by companies that could do that. 301 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,800 So you need to have some sense of a network effect and 302 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,560 collaboration. And then the most important 303 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,920 thing is having access to proprietary data, right? 304 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:55,320 So data is the oxygen for AI. It's also the Mouten AI. 305 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,240 So if you're either building horizontal or vertical software, 306 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:01,600 how do you have access to that data? 307 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,360 Because that's what's going to enable you to compound that 308 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,320 competitive advantage grow over time. 309 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,000 Your, your. Answer on figment. 310 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,800 Not that it's more of an example than anything, but if answer on. 311 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:19,360 Figment is is people have blanketly said SAS is dead, Some 312 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,400 SAS companies are dead. I think Figma is a very good 313 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,240 company which is not dead right you buy. 314 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,160 Into the somewhat the move against SAS, but you think there 315 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:28,240 are companies that will sort of yeah. 316 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,440 I think there's some SAS companies, especially companies 317 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,000 that haven't evolved and developed and you know, there's, 318 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,480 I don't want to name them, but you know, the companies that 319 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,840 maybe even gotten taken private by private equity companies who 320 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,960 then cut R&D, tried to milk that, that user base. 321 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,680 That user base is probably tired of getting milked that there's a 322 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:52,880 new AI forward company that provides a lot more value at 323 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,480 probably a similar cost that they're going to be, they're 324 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,080 going to be taken out and you know those companies then as you 325 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,560 start to unwind those companies then especially the ones that 326 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,040 are burdened with debt you can't reinvest, I agree with you on. 327 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,119 Sort of the private equity company that sort of allowed 328 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,319 their customers to hate them and now the customers have a tool to 329 00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:16,440 say, oh, we we can do that. We can build custom much more 330 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,400 easily than we could before. You're extracting everything 331 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,839 from us we don't want. But what about like a sales 332 00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:23,359 force? I mean, it's interesting there 333 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,760 because you know on sales force was on the come up in some ways 334 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,800 it could have been presented as a Oracle versus Salesforce 335 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:34,520 story, but Oracle has also done tremendously well since the rise 336 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,440 of Salesforce. So that's been sort of a 337 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,560 response like why does software necessarily need to get 338 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,880 decimated just because there's a new generation of company and 339 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:43,920 it's. Not like they're sitting on 340 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,680 their hands, right? Salesforce just yesterday bought 341 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,520 one of our company's momentum that is Fury AI Ford. 342 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,160 And you know, they have obviously amazing distribution. 343 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,480 If they can buy great products to plug into that distribution. 344 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,520 That's kind of how Salesforce has grown over the last 25 345 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,840 years. And so now that they have that 346 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,720 great distribution, are they being thoughtful and careful 347 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:11,360 about what products they build by and partner with to drive out 348 00:18:11,360 --> 00:18:14,280 there? I don't know enough about 349 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:16,720 Salesforce to see how they're competing across each of those 350 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,840 things because Salesforce does so many things today. 351 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,840 But I know they're not, you know, thinking, you know, I know 352 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:24,120 they're not crying in their beer. 353 00:18:24,120 --> 00:18:26,400 I know that they're being aggressive and being out there 354 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:27,560 and getting stuff done right. They're. 355 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,760 Very loud on agents and embracing the change. 356 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,000 On the other hand, it does sort of have some of the workflow 357 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,320 like a lot of their strength is you're doing sales, we do sales 358 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,800 like well, hey, you're doing. Sales, can you put this in this 359 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,720 other database and should you send that person an e-mail who 360 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,600 might buy something from you that could be agentic? 361 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,640 But and then the problem a little bit of the problem with 362 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,000 the public markets is can you slow down to speed up? 363 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,520 And will the public markets give you that grace to say, hey, I'm 364 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,160 going to need to disrupt myself. I'm going to need to cannibalize 365 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,840 myself either on pricing or on product. 366 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,360 And you know, that'll be the best thing for me in the long 367 00:19:05,360 --> 00:19:08,600 term. I think the best CEOs get that 368 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,000 grace. I think, you know, Benioff 369 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,600 probably is that, you know, you'll, you'll obviously see 370 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,920 Elon who's done some things like that, that you're going to be 371 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,600 able to do that. And then it's going to be the 372 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:23,040 expectations in the public markets, a key thing being 373 00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:25,960 pricing. And historically, you know, Sass 374 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,680 is priced on a seat basis. Well, there's a lot less seats, 375 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,120 right? People think there's going to be 376 00:19:31,120 --> 00:19:35,360 a lot less seats and hard. To a complicated transition to 377 00:19:35,360 --> 00:19:36,440 make. If you have to swap your 378 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,000 business model, take risk, especially on the public 379 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,280 markets, yeah. I I have to reinvent myself. 380 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:47,160 I sell a new product to an existing customer that I'm going 381 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,600 to charge less for and they're going to want to buy less seats, 382 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,480 even if they they live with that seat based model. 383 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,360 So my new product that I'm going to take years to develop, I 384 00:19:57,360 --> 00:20:00,320 might be able to sell to an existing customer for less. 385 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,920 That's a bitter pill, Swallow. Changing gears to another 386 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:08,920 important topic, what do you make of the block layoff, You 387 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,880 know 40% of their employees, is that specific to block or you 388 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,520 think more to come? I think that's. 389 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,800 Going to be a trend. I mean Shopify famously has been 390 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,080 able to grow revenue over the last couple years. 70% will 391 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:22,720 keeping the employee base constant. 392 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,320 You know, there's two things that are happening there. 393 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,800 I think people grew very inefficiently during COVID. 394 00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:32,440 And this might be the last piece of saying, all right, let's 395 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,080 reset ourselves. How many people do we need, 396 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,760 especially if we're here in person and we're able to act 397 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,960 more efficiently. All right, that might be how did 398 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,720 we look at the end of 2019 and how were we able to generate 399 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,240 efficiency then? And then on top of it, where can 400 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,840 we add agents? So I don't know many companies 401 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,080 who have done that analysis incredibly well. 402 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,920 You know, obviously companies on the board of that are smaller, 403 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,320 easier, more centralized through doing less things. 404 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,400 It's easier. But you think it's more over 405 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,800 hiring than agents creating value today, I think. 406 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:11,840 It's less focus on efficiency in the near term and then more 407 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,280 agents over time. So if you know, block takes out 408 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,520 40% of their employee base, that employee base might not grow 409 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,080 that much, right? They have the. 410 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,840 Confidence is sort of what they're trying to lean into in 411 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,520 terms of exactly new capacity is and you know. 412 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,920 Famously, X, you know, not only do they take out a whole bunch 413 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,760 of people, but they didn't grow that employee base. 414 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,320 Yeah. X will be fascinating what we 415 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,440 unfortunately, how much. Is we will never. 416 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,720 Necessarily know how well he did with that whole deal or not I I 417 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,640 can't imagine SpaceX really has to get granular about the 418 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,120 performance it'll. Be interesting. 419 00:21:44,120 --> 00:21:46,160 It'll be interesting to see. I mean, they'll probably have to 420 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,920 report revenue numbers. Maybe that's about it. 421 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,080 I don't, I don't, I don't. I'm not a thank God, I'm not a 422 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,920 security player. What in terms of sort of the AI 423 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,720 deal making? Yes, it's been happening. 424 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,400 I know you have some point a point of view on that like what 425 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,760 I don't know, revenue round tripping I guess is the most 426 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,440 like charged way to put it. But like to what extent do you 427 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,840 think these deals, you know, including like now with Amazon 428 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:17,320 wanting opening out how to use Tanium chips are I pay you to 429 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:18,880 spend money with me? Yeah. 430 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,480 And then? There's some of the some of it's 431 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,280 off balance sheet with private credit that I'll give you some 432 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,440 equity, you'll agree to buy my stuff. 433 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,600 We're also going to put this private credit thing that's off 434 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:34,600 balance sheet we somewhat opaque that you know, opacity has never 435 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,960 been proven to be good for shareholders, right? 436 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,760 And transparency is the key thing to if you're not really 437 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,560 transparent and straightforward about something, what are you 438 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,200 trying to hide and why? And it's not because it's so 439 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,080 awesome that, you know, you want to hide it from the public. 440 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:55,160 So I think that's going to be a case, you know, just the, I 441 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,000 think the. Thirst. 442 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,040 For AI will let this go longer, right? 443 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:04,240 So everything, every new technology that was incredibly 444 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,800 CapEx intensive crash, right, whether that was the railroads 445 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,680 or television or fiber and the Internet at some point. 446 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,960 I will overextend at some time. What we're saying, because 447 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,880 there's no one ever says, maybe I'm maybe I'm OK, maybe I don't 448 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,760 need dessert tonight. Everyone's like ice cream and 449 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:25,720 all some gummy bears and hot fudge and, and you continue to 450 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,400 get rewarded right As the hyperscalers have said, I'm 451 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,680 doubling down on AI. I'm spending more stock prices 452 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,360 gone up. So not only is there an ego 453 00:23:36,360 --> 00:23:38,880 thing of like, hey, I'm looking next to me and I got to keep 454 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:43,840 spending and keep up with my my fellow hyperscaler CEOs. 455 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:45,400 My stock price will go up when I do. 456 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:49,440 That my stock price goes up and I remember going back to the old 457 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,640 infrastructure Celex in the early days of building out 458 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:58,560 software that they, they came up with a a metric of you got 459 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,920 valued at 7 times whatever CapEx you put in the ground and that 460 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,720 became a a metric for next generation telco companies and 461 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:11,600 Internet providers in 2000. So you know what what's the 462 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,320 incentive there? You'll you will put as much as 463 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:15,960 you can in the ground and it's insane in. 464 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,760 Retrospect to think Internet providers were, once, you know, 465 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,920 obscenely valuable well. In in that every dollar, I mean, 466 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,320 once that metric came out that every dollar you spent, he was 467 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,600 worth $7.00. Your only incentive is just to 468 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,760 spend as much as you can as quickly as you can by getting 469 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,440 dollars, however you can get them. 470 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,840 And I'm not sure we're at that point now. 471 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:42,160 I think you're still seeing GPUs be somewhat. 472 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,160 There's no dark GPUs, there's no dark data centers. 473 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,400 What do you mean? By that, so there's. 474 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,400 Not being used in the, in the fight when people were laying 475 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,240 fire, they were, they called it, you know, 1% was dark, they 476 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,840 wasn't being used. We haven't lit that up yet. 477 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,880 And therefore we're building things for tomorrow. 478 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,760 And don't worry, the customers will come, because right now 479 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,800 NVIDIA. Has been great about projecting. 480 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,880 There's more demand, Yeah. We could seemingly set whatever 481 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,680 price we want exactly. So they said, you know, in that, 482 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,840 in that, in that analogy, the dark fiber people were 483 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,080 overbuilding, saying eventually the customers would come and 484 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:20,600 they did. It was just five years too late 485 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,640 and all the companies went bankrupt. 486 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,560 In this case, they are saying as many chips as I could produce, 487 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,840 someone's buying them and actually I can charge whatever 488 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:33,840 and there's a line outside the door. 489 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,880 You know, they're also investing in companies to buy their chips 490 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,560 and round tripping it. So you don't know what real 491 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:45,960 demand is, but until you see a little bit of of stopping a real 492 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,720 demand and some of that demand being driven by, you know, 493 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,400 consumers, some of enterprises, maybe a lot of that demand being 494 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,720 driven by fear in both enterprises and hyperscalers, 495 00:25:57,960 --> 00:25:59,320 it's not going to stop anytime soon. 496 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,840 But you think it has. Another year or two years I 497 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:06,360 just. Think that given how we're 498 00:26:06,360 --> 00:26:10,000 seeing some of these companies scale, given the fact that the 499 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,920 capital markets seem wildly open for them even, you know, as open 500 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,400 AI has hit some choppy waters and still continue to raise a 501 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,080 lot of money at very high prices open. 502 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,600 AI in particular is insane because it is still a nonprofit. 503 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,720 Obviously they resolve some of this, but. 504 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,880 They're structure court. There's so many. 505 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,440 That'll be interesting. We know they're interesting 506 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,760 disclosure when they go to court, I think later this year, 507 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:31,680 right, Right. They're yeah. 508 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,520 They're in a big legal battle with Elon. 509 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:38,160 You know, it's just, yeah, you can see, you know how Anthropic 510 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,160 is a less complicated company to invest in, where they're selling 511 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,240 to businesses, they're more eager to be profitable. 512 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,560 Whereas open AI, it's like weird structure, all the legacy 513 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,080 problems of being a yeah, they, they, they. 514 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,960 Have they have some consumer facing stuff? 515 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,160 They have some agentic stuff, they have some infrastructure 516 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:55,520 stuff. They're going to get into 517 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,640 specific agents. Are they going to? 518 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,680 You don't have a bet, right? You're disinterested. 519 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,520 In either of those and then, you know, how does that stack of, 520 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:04,960 hey, there's going to be consumer agents. 521 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,640 Some of those consumer agents are going to be shopping. 522 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,040 Well, they don't have a commerce. 523 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,080 They have a commerce strategy, but they don't have commerce 524 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,800 revenue. They have an ad strategy. 525 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,440 They're just getting into ad revenue. 526 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,160 You know, they're going to do specific roles for you. 527 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,040 They'll they're going to be involved in healthcare. 528 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,440 No one's quite sure exactly what that means. 529 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,120 Are they going to be your payment agent? 530 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,320 Are they going to be your, your healthcare coach? 531 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,800 Are they going to be your doctor in your pocket? 532 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,520 And then you're like, wow, these guys are kind of trying to do 533 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,120 everything, which was, you know, why I submitted the code red a 534 00:27:36,120 --> 00:27:37,720 couple months ago. It's like, hey, we're doing 535 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,040 everything and we can't win a we can't fight a battle on every 536 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,280 front. I mean, I I wrote a piece of 537 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,280 being bearish at 157 billion, which seems clearly wrong. 538 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,120 Now I'm. Sure, you're going to edit that 539 00:27:49,120 --> 00:27:51,400 out. No, I'm still bringing it up. 540 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,160 I can't help myself, you know, I wear my, my mistakes on my 541 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,440 sleeve. I mean, it's just very hard to 542 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,360 call, you know, pricing tops in new markets. 543 00:27:59,360 --> 00:28:03,560 I mean, I remember when Silicon Valley was super divided by Uber 544 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,800 at 3 billion and thinking that was, you know, so far ahead. 545 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,120 So it's, it's really hard to know, you know, we will 546 00:28:10,120 --> 00:28:12,440 overextend given the nature of how these will go. 547 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,360 But then you, you, you know the markets could the I forget it 548 00:28:16,360 --> 00:28:19,480 was just Druckenmiller or or Julian Robertson. 549 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,280 The markets can remain irrational longer than you can 550 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,880 remain liquid. So betting against a market, 551 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,400 especially a runaway train market like this is, is, is 552 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,400 really, really hard, which is as in the, in the venture markets, 553 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,120 how do you kind of, you know, don't get irrationally excited 554 00:28:37,120 --> 00:28:39,000 about it. Stay close to your knitting, 555 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,800 continue to invest in the in the strategy that you've committed 556 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,680 to yourself, your LP's, your partners about and continue to 557 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,320 do good deals in that space and good things happen. 558 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,400 What, how are you playing on the private markets right now or 559 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,640 where do you see investable opportunities in AI so? 560 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,360 We, we see really three different things. 561 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,760 We've begun to see consumer AI experiences and actually, and we 562 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,920 do a lot on the consumer side and even as people have 563 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,680 abandoned consumer, you did riot. 564 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,200 Games you did, riot. Games. 565 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:13,600 Yes, we're the seed investor in Riot and they've gone on to be 566 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,880 the biggest video game in the world over the last 20 years. 567 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,960 So you know, gaming is really interesting that non player 568 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,600 characters can be agents and therefore it makes a game more 569 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,680 fun assets and games can be created much more cheaply. 570 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,200 So we we've looked at a lot of things there. 571 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,720 We've looked at things of you know what are next generation 572 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:35,520 social networks and social constructs company called people 573 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,400 that does you can have a digital twin who exists out in the world 574 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,200 as an agent for you. You can have a digital friend, 575 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:46,360 you can have a digital pet. And what does that mean as these 576 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,120 these other things that are out there in the world, whether 577 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,320 you're pet or digital twin, are now interacting with yours. 578 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,400 So like, hey, digital Rick, go go digital Eric and go get an 579 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,640 ice cream cone at the Yankees game and then send us pictures. 580 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,480 And that's I can't claim to. Understand what's the appeal or 581 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,200 what's the it's no. Different than the Roblox of 582 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,240 you, you're you're basically able to have something else that 583 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:15,360 extends your social experience and But no, we were. 584 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,360 Hanging out, I guess we're friends now, you know, it's like 585 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,600 we've done that. We outsourced them in school. 586 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,480 We were working, we were doing a podcast, send our digital twins 587 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,600 over to to Yankee Stadium and send us pictures like so you 588 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,200 could be social evil when you're working. 589 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,240 But don't I? What I want from being social is 590 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,000 primarily like the experience, right? 591 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,240 You're getting old, man. I want the networking of it or 592 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,720 like the. Or you want you want the 593 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,320 experience or do you? You know, there's obviously a 594 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,960 whole generation's growing up that want the the likes and the 595 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,520 friends and you want the. Sort of saturation like. 596 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,880 Hey, look at look at little you're like Instagram if we're. 597 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,800 If we're going to the aquarium performatively on Instagram, 598 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,320 like why go at all just like have the yeah if you. 599 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,320 And if you could get likes, thumbs up points for for having 600 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:08,160 a very cool picture of little Rick and little Eric at the 601 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,520 Yankees game, that's just another way you could do things 602 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:12,680 when you don't have to do anything. 603 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,840 It's an accelerationist. View of getting rid of 604 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:16,640 Instagram. Yeah. 605 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,720 Well, I think yeah. I think there's going to be 606 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,440 agents or it's not just a flat photo that, you know, you're 607 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,320 hoping because you put a good filter on that people will like 608 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,120 you have people doing things for you. 609 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,440 So you know, whether it's the dating market, the social media 610 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:34,240 market, the gaming market, the commerce market, we do have done 611 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,920 a lot in digital health on the consumer side, which we think is 612 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,720 going to be transformed because Healthcare is so broken, you 613 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,320 know, better, you know, AI could definitely make that better, 614 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,400 faster and cheaper. And then on the enterprise side, 615 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,480 you know, we have two sides. We got, you know, call it, you 616 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,600 know, application layer enterprise AI that we talked a 617 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,920 little bit about having data and proprietary data and proprietary 618 00:31:54,920 --> 00:32:00,560 access to data and the ability to use that data in to create 619 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,920 new applications, new enchanted applications. 620 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:07,000 We're also seeing companies like crisp who create inter 621 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,120 enterprise applications. So think about supply chain. 622 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,920 If I'm able to have an agent, if I'm able to have my data and 623 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:18,440 your data, you know, I'm Mandalay is your Walmart, you 624 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,200 know, somebody else's unify, which is, you know, the 625 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,080 logistics company. How do I understand how that 626 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,200 works and then be able to put intelligence on top of a multi 627 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:31,640 hop data system And you think about the lock in of that if 628 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,400 you're across enterprise and the data network effects which would 629 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,160 exist and why that's really important. 630 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,560 And then even, you know, the third bucket might be on the 631 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,360 infrastructure side. You know, a lot of Fortune 500 632 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,200 companies are still trying to pull data out. 633 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,600 You know, a lot of these companies have grown through 634 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,240 acquisition. They have a spaghetti of all 635 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:57,200 kinds of different databases, software, languages, all that 636 00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,080 stuff. And they're just trying to 637 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,880 unlock that data. And there's a whole generation 638 00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:04,240 of companies that are doing that. 639 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,160 And then what happens when you unlock the data? 640 00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,680 Holy shit, you know, is that secure? 641 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,160 And who gets access to that? You know, so I, I've, now I have 642 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,920 this data, who's getting access, the agents getting access to 643 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:16,240 that. How long does the agents have 644 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,680 it? So if the agents has access to 645 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,840 your credit card and financial information all the time, well, 646 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,200 what is that agent doing? What is is that what does? 647 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,520 What are they gonna do and why? I'm very. 648 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,520 Interested in what company is actually willing to play 649 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:35,240 gatekeeper for agents spending your money right. 650 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,560 It's like, is it the actual application? 651 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,600 You know, you can see existing, you know, like a, a Plaid or 652 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,200 something. But it doesn't seem like a a lot 653 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,840 of companies I think are wary about signing up to be the one 654 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,840 that says yes, this is safe to let your agent go. 655 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,000 Spend or what does that and where does that data go? 656 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,520 Even if it's just your bank account number, like, oh, you 657 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,160 could go, you could go buy me that sweater, but you know that 658 00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,920 would. So what's that agent give that 659 00:33:59,920 --> 00:34:02,360 bank account to another agent who gives it to another agent? 660 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,880 And what does that mean? And, or if it's, you know, even 661 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,040 worse Social Security number, which you can't just cancel and 662 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,239 get another one tomorrow, you know, how does that how does 663 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,360 that data exist, whether it's payroll data. 664 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,560 So we think about that we've had. 665 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:19,040 Space. Yes, we have a. 666 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,080 Couple different things around that we have Daytona which which 667 00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,080 does sandboxes around agents to keep them more secure and 668 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,760 running specific things. We have LM Studios, which 669 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:33,320 manages data around this problem and we're looking at a lot of 670 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:37,040 things because you know, the one of the best and worst things 671 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,239 about agents is they're always working, right? 672 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:40,800 So they're always working. I know we're. 673 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,000 Going to I feel like they're hope. 674 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,120 They're doing good stuff, but if they're doing bad stuff, they 675 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,120 could really. A new anxiety we're inventing 676 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,960 right now is this sort of when you wake up, you have to see 677 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:51,960 what your agent did. It's like, have I been 678 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,000 productive overnight? You know, did I set everything 679 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,680 up so that, you know, the night time agent work was super useful 680 00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,640 and I have stuff to do today so or did they? 681 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,240 Get. Or did they, you know, take my 682 00:35:01,240 --> 00:35:03,440 credit card on a Shopping Express shopping spree with 683 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,400 little Eric at the Yankees game? What? 684 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,120 I mean games, games and consumers obviously the most 685 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,480 fun. And what what in gaming in 686 00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:13,000 particular, are you optimistic? Better. 687 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,080 Have you made any bets yet? Not? 688 00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,120 Recently we we looked at some stuff in terms of content 689 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,280 creation with some stuff in terms of pure content creation. 690 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,880 So if I wanted to play you in a game, we can create a much 691 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,680 better game than we ever could of right. 692 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,440 So there's kind of next generation unities, which is 693 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:33,280 great game creation. Game engines, you know, game 694 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,840 engines are able to leverage, you know, existing IP and they 695 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,040 work with companies like Disney or Epic, they leverage existing 696 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,720 IP. So that game creation is going 697 00:35:42,720 --> 00:35:44,960 to be easier or no different than it's just easier to create 698 00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,040 applications or anything else like that today. 699 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:51,360 So we've looked at those things. It's hard to create a lot of 700 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,680 long term competitive differentiation. 701 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,120 So there's a lot of these companies are doing it. 702 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,760 They're all creating a lot of value, but it's hard to say 703 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:00,520 where they're creating a long term competitive 704 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,160 differentiation. So we haven't done anything 705 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,280 there. We've companies that are 706 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:09,040 creating really good at gentic non player characters, right. 707 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,760 So NPCS is you know the the term for them. 708 00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,520 They used to be had an NPC. It was like, it was like, I know 709 00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,240 well. NPC We trivialize humans by 710 00:36:18,240 --> 00:36:19,960 saying you're just an NPC. Exactly. 711 00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,240 Now we're going to have a gentic NPCS that are like, oh, it's. 712 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,880 Very fully fleshed, you know, So, you know, those were like 713 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,400 the stormtroopers. You're going to go straight 714 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:27,640 ahead and you're just going to shoot them. 715 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,720 And now these NPCS are going to be smarter, and there's people 716 00:36:31,720 --> 00:36:34,840 who are making smarter NPCS, and that's kind of interesting. 717 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,640 But again, there was lack of differentiation. 718 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,280 You know what we're really probably most excited about on 719 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,240 the game side because I think that more people are playing 720 00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:46,120 more games and maybe even some AI will let people work less and 721 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,760 therefore play even more games. And we both love playing games 722 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,680 is the opportunity to create, you know, independent studios, 723 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,040 right? So Riot despite being enormous 724 00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:00,560 today was independent studio who said, you know, we were able to 725 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,880 bring League of Legends to market for about $6.7 million, 726 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,280 which you would just. Bet on a game, so I think. 727 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:11,840 There's going to be small teams of game studios who have 728 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,600 different play patterns. We've looked at things around 729 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:19,840 audio being a really interesting thing because the ability to use 730 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,480 AI to ingest audio and come back with audio. 731 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,960 So are there audio formats which are really interesting and 732 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,640 different? Are there interfaces that are 733 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,440 different? You know, looked at a company 734 00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,760 that does kind of audio formats on TV. 735 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,760 So can you play? Yes, there are. 736 00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,280 Some of my best friends, I host events with them, so I know them 737 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:39,240 very well. Yeah, there's a. 738 00:37:39,240 --> 00:37:43,760 Couple yeah, really good. That's you know, and you know, 739 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:47,920 so are there different ways that hopefully I'll meet somebody 740 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,560 that'll say, you know what we thought about all these things 741 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,000 and we believe believe with like a handful of people, we can come 742 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,400 up with a game. They'll be completely different. 743 00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:02,040 It'll be audio or voice driven and it'll be super cool and fun. 744 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,800 It'll be and we'll pull into all these things. 745 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,440 We'll be social, you know, they'll have a chantic NPCS and 746 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:11,200 they'll do all these things. But you know, we often times we 747 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:16,560 spend a long time looking for looking at mega trends and 748 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,440 figuring out what's going to be it. 749 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,640 And then you have to find that special entrepreneur the way 750 00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:24,760 Brandon Beck and Mark Merrill were at Riot, who were like, ah, 751 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,080 you're actually saying what I've been trying to articulate for 752 00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,880 years. This is an old one and we don't 753 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,880 need to spend a lot of time on it, but the whole like Major 754 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,600 League Gaming, like the did you guys made a play in that world? 755 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,040 We didn't. There was I. 756 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:40,240 Wrote about it and I got excited. 757 00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:41,920 Founders Fund? Didn't they even make a play 758 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:42,560 like this? Sort of? 759 00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:46,000 And obviously, you know, Activision went big on having 760 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,160 more. Broader E sports, E sports. 761 00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:51,160 So there was a whole bunch of things in E sports, a whole 762 00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:53,320 bunch of So there was teams, there was leagues, there's some 763 00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:54,800 other things died. Right, like has that. 764 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,360 It's not. Happened well, if not the. 765 00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,880 Pandemic when right it well. It died a little bit. 766 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:05,200 There's two reasons I think it died that different than like 767 00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:06,720 Major League Baseball or the NFL. 768 00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:11,080 The a lot of the rights and the IP was so controlled by the 769 00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,720 games, by the games and the developer publishers that you 770 00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:18,880 really were just playing someone else's game and he had less 771 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,040 control. And then they sort of. 772 00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,200 Because then they got built sort of as marketing for the game, 773 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,880 but then because it wasn't a real business, they didn't have 774 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,240 to set it up in a way. And you can. 775 00:39:27,240 --> 00:39:30,200 Only play in the in certain places and then therefore the 776 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:35,280 rules were very much dictated by that in the there was some very 777 00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,080 big companies. 100 Thieves is still a really good company 778 00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:41,920 growing that space 9 liquid. There was there was a lot of 779 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,560 companies that were very valuable at a time, but their 780 00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:49,400 ability to gain audience didn't let them capture as much value 781 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,200 as I think people would have thought. 782 00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:55,000 But there's still a really active, you know, riot, you 783 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:59,520 know, sells out, you know, any kind of regional event, You 784 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,600 know, I think they sold out. They had a three day champion 785 00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:06,560 worlds in in Paris this past summer and it sold out in 8 786 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,600 minutes. So people are still, people 787 00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,040 still love it, people still enjoy watching it. 788 00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,840 I think that just the developer publishers are capturing the 789 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:16,640 lion's share of those economics a big. 790 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:18,600 Portfolio company of yours is Roe. 791 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:23,240 You know what's I mean, it's a fascinating space given the rise 792 00:40:23,240 --> 00:40:26,640 of GLP ones like, yeah. What's your read on sort of 793 00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,160 their Business Today? Yeah, I. 794 00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,360 Think, you know, again, we're talking about megatrends thing 795 00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,240 about the rise of GLP ones, the rise of direct to consumer 796 00:40:33,240 --> 00:40:36,560 healthcare, the ability to put the patient first. 797 00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,400 So you know, going, you know, one of the things you're looking 798 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:43,680 for as venture capitalists, incredibly large markets where 799 00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,960 people are paying a lot of money and are very unhappy with the 800 00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,240 service. And you think about healthcare 801 00:40:49,240 --> 00:40:52,960 being very clear in that, that people have a lot of money for 802 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,200 healthcare either as an individual or even employer in 803 00:40:56,200 --> 00:41:00,000 government being the other other very large payer who doesn't 804 00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:01,680 feel like they're getting their money's worth. 805 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:07,320 The patients are unhappy. The payers tend to be unhappy 806 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,720 about everything. And So what do you, so how do 807 00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:15,080 you fix that? I think it's around six weeks to 808 00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,680 get an appointment with the doctor today in America. 809 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:22,880 So if you think about all the things you could use help on and 810 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,560 when you get an appointment, you get about, you know, 10-11 811 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,280 minutes. So it's not like, you know, 812 00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:31,720 people are really, really have the time to really provide 813 00:41:31,720 --> 00:41:34,600 personalized healthcare. You know, can, can you do 814 00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:39,920 something in a better way with remote access with AI to help 815 00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:43,800 that provider know what's important to you and why and 816 00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,240 then to solve very large problems and you know, GOP ones 817 00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:51,600 and you know, obesity have been a huge problem for a long time. 818 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:56,160 GOP runs have now been proven to be very helpful and a lot of 819 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,280 other conditions. And are they still? 820 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,280 Able to produce them because for a while they had the 821 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,240 opportunity. So there was there's. 822 00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:07,440 Like a scuffle there, yeah. GLP ones became so popular that 823 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,360 there was a global shortage. If there's a global shortage of 824 00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:14,600 a necessary medication, the FDA says, OK, we're basically going 825 00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,440 to suspend the patent and we're going to let people compound 826 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:22,280 their own drugs. And then when when that shortage 827 00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:25,640 is over, it flips back and says, hey, you know, you got to 828 00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,320 respect the patent again. And that's been a lot of chop in 829 00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:29,880 the market with different players. 830 00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,200 You know, we're always been incredibly good about respecting 831 00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:37,120 those patents and saying, OK, when we need to compound to be 832 00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:40,080 able to fill that consumer demand because there's excess 833 00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,360 demand, we'll do that. And now when that's not there, 834 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,720 how do we partner with the Nova Nordics or Eli Lilly's of the 835 00:42:46,720 --> 00:42:50,160 world to provide the best possible medication to the right 836 00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,120 person at the right time at the right price? 837 00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,920 And that that's moved on. And, you know, they've continued 838 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,480 to provide a great service. You know, they're kind of, you 839 00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,880 know, Morgan Stanley put out a great note saying they're kind 840 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,640 of the Spotify of direct to consumer healthcare that you're 841 00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,480 getting a premium service in a white glove way. 842 00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,160 And you feel like you're being treated like this is a really 843 00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:17,160 good service and you're a patient and and you're being 844 00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,240 treated even as a patient like a customer finally. 845 00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:25,640 And I think, you know, the growth of Roe, you know, kind of 846 00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:29,040 riding that tide of GLP ones and that being maybe the most 847 00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,880 important drug in the last 20 years is going to be a great 848 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,880 story for, you know, some of the stories they tell and how 849 00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:39,120 they've changed people's lives, the ability to access 850 00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:42,000 healthcare. And then from a digital health 851 00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:45,600 side, how it's really changing the way that pharma companies go 852 00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,600 to market and the impact they're able to have they they can. 853 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,320 Get the consumer excited about a drug that's good for them and 854 00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:53,480 not Yeah, well. They hear it, they go see it, 855 00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,000 and then they if they want to have access to it, they have 856 00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:57,480 access to it. There's now a bunch of different 857 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,000 formulations. You get a pill, you could get a 858 00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,760 shot. You can go from Lilly or 859 00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:07,160 Nordisk, there's different providers and therefore you have 860 00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,240 the ability to say, hey, this one's right. 861 00:44:09,240 --> 00:44:10,880 For me it's differentiated. In some, yeah. 862 00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:11,960 Well. There's enough, there's enough 863 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:13,800 providers out there that this one's right for me. 864 00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,120 Hey, I'm afraid of needles. I'd rather take a pill. 865 00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,280 I'd rather, you know, payless or pay more for it. 866 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,200 Maybe a different brand, no different than anything else. 867 00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:24,880 But you know, here's what I definitely know what I want. 868 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,160 I definitely want to be able to take this drug, which is proven 869 00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:31,840 to help people lose weight, you know, push off dementia, have a 870 00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:33,480 lot of these other knock down effects. 871 00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,200 And I want it delivered to my house and I want to be able to 872 00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,760 do my regular check UPS. I want to be able to check on 873 00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:41,400 make sure there's no side effects. 874 00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,440 I want to be able to do that right, right through my phone 875 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,480 and get what I believe is a very high quality service. 876 00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:52,360 And that's, you know, this next generation of companies are able 877 00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:56,120 to provide a very high level of service, delight their customers 878 00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,560 and then have, you know, a huge viral effect. 879 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,520 First, Mark was an investor in DraftKings. 880 00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,560 Yes. Have the prediction market 881 00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,720 companies, have you made a play there? 882 00:45:06,720 --> 00:45:08,440 We have. Not and not because we were in 883 00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:12,680 draft investors, DraftKings, we looked at some of them, maybe 884 00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,600 because we were concerned maybe about the regulatory 885 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:16,560 environment. You're like we were. 886 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,520 Deep in the regulatory environment, and these companies 887 00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,240 don't seem worried about it. We lived. 888 00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:22,240 Through. It right? 889 00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:26,160 And, and, and got and, you know, felt some of the pain of that 890 00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,800 and these companies didn't seem concerned about it, which gave 891 00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,000 us some concern. Do you think they were? 892 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,440 Always the prediction markets were always sports betting 893 00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,760 companies in sheep's clothing, basically. 894 00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:41,360 Well, I think now you could look at the and whether it's the 895 00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:45,520 banks, Oregon, everyone else doing research, I think it's 85 896 00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,040 plus percent of the prediction market stuff definitely now. 897 00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:49,520 It is. I mean, for a little while they 898 00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,880 had a 6A about, you know, elections and everything and 899 00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:52,840 then. All of a sudden it's a little 900 00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,760 bit about it. And then I mean, I was even over 901 00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,400 in in Europe for a board meeting during the NFL playoffs. 902 00:45:59,960 --> 00:46:03,680 And I wanted to look up. I, I think it was, you know, how 903 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,160 long the PM, how long people thought the PM was going to stay 904 00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:10,360 in, stay intact in, in, in Great Britain. 905 00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:15,360 And I go to pull up my prediction market and I couldn't 906 00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:19,400 even get to how long that PM was going to be there because it was 907 00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:23,840 8 pages of NFL ads, NFL playoff ads. 908 00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:25,600 How do you? Think you think there's 909 00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,720 eventually a crackdown? I think it's going to be 910 00:46:28,720 --> 00:46:30,040 interesting. I think the current 911 00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,880 administration is not going to crack down. 912 00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:36,240 I think that might change under different administrations. 913 00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,880 You know, the key thing is California, Texas and Florida, 914 00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:46,520 huge part of the US that were, you know, at least California 915 00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:51,080 bought, you know, actively voted to not allow sports gambling and 916 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:54,600 then now sports gambling exists. So what does that mean? 917 00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,600 Maybe under a different administration or someone's 918 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:04,480 different way to view it or has this completely just, you know, 919 00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:07,640 horses are so far out of out of the out of the paddock that 920 00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:12,080 there's like a we, we can't turn this back anymore, you know, 921 00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,120 which I think would just grow that market tremendously. 922 00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,360 I think you know, DraftKings just had their investor day and 923 00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:22,800 they said, you know, maybe we were not on our front foot on 924 00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:26,760 the prediction markets because we we were trying to be is so 925 00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,400 good on the regulatory side. But they were able to buy a 926 00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:32,360 company in prediction markets and they believe this is growing 927 00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:36,360 their Tam tremendously. So I think all those companies 928 00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,600 will benefit from it. You know Flutter and DraftKings 929 00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:42,840 on the current public side with their with their brands they 930 00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:44,720 have today. But then obviously calcium 931 00:47:44,720 --> 00:47:48,280 polymarket, are you still? Drafting as investor as. 932 00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,360 Individual I, I still own a lot of the stock I got as an 933 00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:55,080 individual as part of first mark, but we, we've distributed 934 00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:56,880 all our stock this this. Sort of. 935 00:47:56,880 --> 00:48:00,440 Political swing is interesting. Sort of closing out with, you 936 00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,240 know, the IPO conversation again, I mean, do you think some 937 00:48:03,240 --> 00:48:06,000 of these companies, yeah, they sort of need to go public in a 938 00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,880 Trump era like the SpaceX and Elon's, where he's so close to 939 00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,560 the. Administration, you know, I 940 00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,280 don't know if you have to rush out before the midterms. 941 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,440 I don't know if the market cares that much about like rushing out 942 00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:24,240 before the midterms. You know, what do you were, you 943 00:48:24,240 --> 00:48:27,200 know, if something happened in the midterms and then that 944 00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:31,800 emboldened the Democrats to say, hey, these prediction markets 945 00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:35,240 are, you know, we're, we're after them, we're after them. 946 00:48:35,240 --> 00:48:39,400 And that's going to be a huge piece of our 28 platform. 947 00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:42,760 I think, you know, if you're a polymarket investor, you'd 948 00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:46,160 rather be out than in, right? You'd rather have just already 949 00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:49,400 gone public, just gone. Public and at least I always 950 00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:54,600 think, and this might be a bias I have that if you can get out 951 00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,520 and, and you, you think there's going to be something rough 952 00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:01,920 ahead, you're better being out. We have more access to the 953 00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,440 financial markets, even though it might be harder or more 954 00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:08,960 expensive than it might, you might have thought and you at 955 00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:12,480 least have some liquidity for some of your early employees and 956 00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:15,160 investors. They might not be happy if you 957 00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:18,640 hit a, a speed bump with the stock price, but they'll be more 958 00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:22,040 happy than if you were private. So you just have greater degrees 959 00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:25,000 of fleet of freedom to operate. You know, you have to provide 960 00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,880 more transparency, but if you're uncertain about what's ahead and 961 00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:31,480 you have the opportunity to be a public company during that time 962 00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:35,360 of uncertainty and obviously if you have the great CEO, you want 963 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,560 to be up, Rick. Thanks for coming on the 964 00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:38,040 podcast. Awesome. 965 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:38,960 Thanks. Great seeing you man. 966 00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:41,840 That's our. Episode enjoyed having Rick on 967 00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:43,800 the podcast. Thanks for sticking around to 968 00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:45,680 the end. Please, if you've made it this 969 00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:49,280 far, you've got a like comment subscribe excited to grow the 970 00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:52,680 channel And of course, you can find our writing and reporting 971 00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:56,600 on Sharpson Venture Capital at newcomer.co. 972 00:49:57,120 --> 00:49:59,000 We also host events. You can check out what we're 973 00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:02,920 doing at Newcomer dot events. Share the podcasts, help us get 974 00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:06,240 distribution, support the channel comment support, like 975 00:50:06,240 --> 00:50:07,760 comment subscribe. You know, you know the deal. 976 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:10,280 Thanks. Thanks for being on the journey 977 00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:11,560 with us. All right, see you next week.