1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,240 Humans have all sorts of opinions on where AI as a 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,400 technology is going over the coming years, but has anyone 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:10,880 asked AI how it feels about it? In today's episode, AI is making 4 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:13,520 its own predictions about the future and to come up with the 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,800 focus areas that are the most likely to see the highest levels 6 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:18,880 of growth. I'm joined by Max Child and 7 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,000 James Wilsterman who are my Co hosts at the Three Roll Valley 8 00:00:22,080 --> 00:00:24,520 AI Summit. Today we're letting AI make its 9 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:28,200 own five year plan. This is the nuke of our podcast. 10 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,680 All right, we're back on the Newcomer Podcast. 11 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,800 I'm Eric Newcomer. I'm here with James Wilsterman 12 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,400 and Max Child. They're joining us for our 13 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:48,080 Cerebral Valley Podcast edition ahead of Cerebral Valley AI 14 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:52,040 Summit next week. Getting close last week, we 15 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,960 talked about some AI themes and did our draft pick for top AI 16 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,760 startups. This one we're looking at the 17 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,120 future. We're talking about AI 18 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,720 predictions. One year ago, Max James and I 19 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:11,040 reacted to predictions from Open AI and Anthropic and made bets 20 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:12,520 on those. So we're going to quickly review 21 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,160 how each of us did. So, you know, who's good at 22 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:16,720 making predictions and who's not. 23 00:01:16,960 --> 00:01:20,520 And then we will do a new round of predictions for next year. 24 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:25,160 So I'm gonna hand it over to James, who is running, tracking 25 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,360 all this, the scorekeeper. James, how did we do last year? 26 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,440 Yeah, I just ran all these games for you guys. 27 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,960 Yeah, we, we had, we made predictions. 28 00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:39,920 What was interesting last year is we had Claude and open AI 29 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:44,960 ChatGPT generate the predictions as well as give us a probability 30 00:01:44,960 --> 00:01:48,640 estimate of how likely they would to be to occur within 12 31 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,480 months. So all three of us took overs or 32 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:56,680 unders on the probabilities and then we can check back now 12 33 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,440 months later to see how we did. So running through last year's 34 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:05,960 slate of predictions, The first prediction was phrased as will 35 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,520 open AI release GPT 5 exceeding 10 trillion parameters. 36 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,760 We are calling that not met did not happen. 37 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:21,680 The second prediction from ChatGPT National AI regulations 38 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:25,480 in healthcare diagnostics at By the end of this year, at least 39 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:28,680 three countries will have implemented these national 40 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,680 healthcare regulations governing whether you can use AI when 41 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,560 diagnosing illness at a 70% probability. 42 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:42,120 Also calling that not met, the third prediction was will Tesla 43 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,120 be approved for legal operation of unsupervised self driving 44 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,440 cars in one state with no drivers. 45 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,480 We are saying no that did not happen as well. 46 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,280 Open AI gave that a 40% probability. 47 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,320 The 4th prediction from ChatGPT was by the end of this year AI 48 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:06,360 generated content would be constituting at least 50% of all 49 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:11,480 news articles by published by one major news outlet, with a 50 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:16,480 30% probability where you're saying that was not met either. 51 00:03:16,920 --> 00:03:20,400 No known major outlet has. I hear that newcomer media has 52 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,360 70% of its articles generated by AI. 53 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:23,920 The. Early. 54 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:25,880 I would like to, I would like to litigate that. 55 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,080 That's a major outlet. That's that's what I'm hearing 56 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,160 from the ground, Eric fact. One of our articles? 57 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:32,840 None. Yeah, none, none. 58 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:34,840 Oh. My God, none that you're aware 59 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:39,960 of. OK, the last problem, the last 60 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:46,880 prediction from ChatGPT was at 21st 25% probability that at 61 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:51,120 least one AI generated film, both the script and the visuals, 62 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:57,160 would be released in theaters. I'm kind of quibbling with the 63 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,680 the outcome of this one where there was at least one film 64 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,880 released in Turkey and maybe at least one theatre, but Max and I 65 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:10,280 have agreed to I'm a lot of. One theater owner in Turkey and 66 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:11,880 call that an over. That's absurd. 67 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:13,400 I'm sorry, no. I agree. 68 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:14,440 I agree. We're calling. 69 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,440 USA Films, come on. Yeah, we're saying that did not 70 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,320 happen, but apparently there is a film called Post Truth if 71 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,120 anyone wants to check that out in Turkey. 72 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,440 Only show in Turkey. Only yeah, if you happen to be 73 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,280 yeah, if you happen to be in Turkey, OK, If you're keeping 74 00:04:32,280 --> 00:04:35,600 score at home, none of the predictions happened. 75 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:41,600 That is my my own take away. So AI's predictions about what 76 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,680 would happen in the world of AI, you know, it didn't say they 77 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:46,600 would all have them, but they all, you know, it gave a a. 78 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,480 Lot of them had none of them above 50% probabilities, you 79 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,520 know right? Right, so AI clearly thought 80 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:52,600 they would happen. Yeah. 81 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,440 So who? Who is the most foolhardy? 82 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,080 Who who thought too much stuff was going to happen? 83 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,680 It's very straightforward. Whoever guessed who's the most 84 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,920 upbeat did the worst, and whoever is the most pessimistic 85 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:05,760 did the best. So who? 86 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:06,760 Who? Yeah. 87 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,800 What are our dispositions? I will I'll read off some scores 88 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,760 here. We, we gave each other some 89 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,120 points or took away points depending on yeah, whether we 90 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:18,880 took the over under on the probability. 91 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:23,920 And I came in last place with -.2. 92 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,800 I'm sorry. I was so I was super. 93 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,080 I was way, way too overly, overly optimistic. 94 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,840 In these patients that. Fits too many overs, too many 95 00:05:36,840 --> 00:05:39,120 overs. Yeah, yeah, I'm just gonna 96 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,280 definitely adjust my strategy a little bit this year. 97 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:48,440 And then in second place with .7 was Eric. 98 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,840 So Congrats Eric on that. A respectable positive score. 99 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,720 Yeah, I know. Not not underwater. 100 00:05:55,880 --> 00:06:03,080 How do you and then Max with 1.6 points in this probability 101 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,920 scoring calculus win wins the day. 102 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:08,760 Lots of good. Nothing ever happens. 103 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,040 Yeah, nothing ever happens. Amigos. 104 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:14,800 I'm excited for this year's prediction. 105 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:16,920 Are you guys ready to play again? 106 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,000 Yes. I feel like we've all been 107 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:19,880 chastened. We've. 108 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,640 All learned our lessons yes all right, so a little intro for 109 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,880 this year's predictions. We asked 3 brilliant math 110 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:31,400 Olympiad winning a is Chachi BT Gemini and Claude to make 111 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,080 predictions of what will happen in the next 12 months in AI. 112 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,440 We asked them to assign probabilities, which is 113 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,040 important to understand. You know it thinks something's 114 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:40,400 unlikely. It's thinks something's very 115 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:41,960 likely. We take the over under on those 116 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,320 probabilities and then we get points based on how accurate we 117 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,360 are against those overruns. Obviously last year the message 118 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,320 was nothing ever happens. It'll be interesting to see if 119 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,440 in the next 12 months something does happen. 120 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:57,880 All right, let's kick it off with ChatGPT. 121 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:02,040 I used ChatGPT 5 Pro for these by the way, just in case you 122 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:03,720 wanted to understand. What a model? 123 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,640 And the first prediction? We're arguing that by this time 124 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:14,640 next year, the FCC will adopt A policy requiring on air 125 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:18,960 disclosure when AI tools are used in political ads. 126 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,200 Under Easy what? Should be. 127 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,720 The probability is 65%. Under. 128 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:34,000 Under I just think the Trump FCC is very pro AI so unless unless 129 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,280 something really happens they're not going to do anything AI or 130 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:37,840 regulatory. If it was a Harris 131 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:39,920 administration or something like that then that would be 132 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,640 possible, but 65 is a crazy over. 133 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,160 Right. Yeah, I'll take the under, I 134 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:46,480 think. I think if. 135 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,840 Yeah, to your point, like what is what is the Trump 136 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,680 administration doing at all? I mean, there's no actual laws 137 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,000 being passed, right? I mean the. 138 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:55,840 The government is not. Even shut down, yeah. 139 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:57,640 They're. They're trying to get Jimmy 140 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,680 Kimmel off the air. They're like fewer humans. 141 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,280 They're like like less. Humans on the. 142 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,240 Air more AI, baby. Yeah. 143 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,040 But they use one of those canes and they pull him off. 144 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:11,680 They don't actually pass a lie. Fair enough, but I think I think 145 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,680 they're like the AI is very pro Trump, let's keep it on the air. 146 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,160 Yeah. All right. 147 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,600 Well, that was a quick one. Easy, easy, easy start. 148 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,680 Moving on. OK, this is interesting 149 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,880 prediction from ChatGPT. By this time next year, major 150 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:32,039 outlets report, open AIS annualized revenue has hit a run 151 00:08:32,039 --> 00:08:37,600 rate of over 30 billion. Oh oh man, I need to talk to my. 152 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:39,120 What's what's the probability here? 153 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:42,400 You need to talk to your source on the inside there. 154 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,440 It's like. Well, TomTom covers this closely 155 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,240 for us. I'm like, I don't track. 156 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:50,760 I thought you were texting Sam or something. 157 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,440 Yeah. We no Sam, well Sam that I 158 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,480 could, but not that he would help. 159 00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,600 But like Sam, he went on that, he went on that interview with 160 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,880 Brad Gerser. Brad Gerser and was. 161 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,640 Saying they. Were over 13 already. 162 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:09,200 Let's see. You guys want to guess guess the 163 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:14,640 line here. 70 I don't know. 60% very. 164 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,160 Aggressive. OK, All right, pretty. 165 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,640 That's a pretty good guess. Yeah, it was I'm, I'm going to 166 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:23,360 take the over at 60 because I think they're probably at least 167 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,720 at 15 right now and doubling in a year. 168 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,280 If they don't double in the year, the entire U.S. economy is 169 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,360 going to collapse. So we're not going to be we're 170 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,480 not going to be having a predictions podcast if they get 171 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:38,480 2X in the next 12 months, they. They don't have to say it right, 172 00:09:38,560 --> 00:09:39,960 it just has to be reported that they like. 173 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,880 Yeah, reported somewhere. Yeah, reported that it's rough. 174 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:44,880 Then it's, you know, probably over 30. 175 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,440 So Max, you are taking the over despite, despite every previous 176 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:52,640 prediction last year landing in the under? 177 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:56,560 Well, I just think again, as a connoisseur of arr growth rates, 178 00:09:56,560 --> 00:10:01,000 as a voice AI startup founder James and I, Bali Incorporated, 179 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,920 you have to double every year basically to be a quote UN quote 180 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,760 high growth venture startup, even at the open AI level where 181 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,760 they're trying to do this IPO at a trillion dollars. 182 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:14,040 And so I think to our earlier discussion, Sam Alman literally 183 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,200 said on a podcast, they were over a $13 billion rate. 184 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,760 So I will give them at least a 15, and I think that might be 185 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:21,960 low. And if they don't double in a 186 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,680 year, yeah, I mean, the the US economy and the entire chips and 187 00:10:25,680 --> 00:10:27,400 energy story will probably collapse. 188 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:31,080 So this this podcast will be cancelled so it'll must be 189 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:32,000 hosting. I guess what? 190 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,280 We did, but there has to be. Yeah, nobody. 191 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,120 Reporting lags like the reporting lags I mean. 192 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:38,600 OK, if we're when we report. Again. 193 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,360 When is it gonna be reported? Yeah, I don't know. 194 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:43,760 I. Mean you're sitting here in this 195 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,160 chair in a year, you know, what's the, what's the, what did 196 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,120 Sam just say on on the podcast? Right. 197 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,160 Yeah. Look, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go 198 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,080 with, but I believe to be the truth, which is I believe they 199 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,320 will be at over 3012 months from today. 200 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,720 It's a little bit hard for me to start hedging this prediction, 201 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,800 but waste on whether or not it's reported at that point or not. 202 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,200 So I'm just gonna just gonna go with what I believe to be the 203 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,600 reality 12 months from today. Yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna snag 204 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,760 the under just just. To nothing ever happens. 205 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,200 Yeah, just. What is your reasoning? 206 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,080 Learned my lesson. Or is you like is it the 207 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,640 reporting or you believe they will actually be under 30 at 208 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,440 that point? I think it'll be close no matter 209 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,200 what. I think that, well, yeah, I 210 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,440 think there's a lot of competition heating up in this 211 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,240 in, in AI And, you know, we don't know what, how how we 212 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:37,880 don't know how how much demis cooked over at Google yet for 213 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:43,240 Gemini 3. So let's let's, yeah, let's see 214 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,280 how it plays out. I am going to take the under. 215 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,360 I'm chastened, you know, Maybe all over correct. 216 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,360 I mean, you know, maybe this is the year that things happened, 217 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:55,320 yeah. No, I mean I. 218 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,240 Think it's I. Think I think the over is 219 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,680 totally a valid pit play. OK next prediction. 220 00:12:01,680 --> 00:12:07,800 This one's from ChatGPT 5. Thinking meta in their 10K or 221 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:16,520 earnings or in various major news outlet sources report 2026 222 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:20,880 shipments for Meta's display equipped glasses to exceed 223 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:25,000 1,000,000. Meta Ray ban display 799. 224 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:29,480 Ugly. You can get them in in sand or 225 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,960 in black under. I'm going to grab the under. 226 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,440 Yeah. I, I just, I think this is in 227 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,720 the Nothing ever happens category. 228 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,360 I think they might try to like juice shipments in sort of some 229 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,560 sort of bizarre way, but I the reviews are not very good once 230 00:12:44,560 --> 00:12:45,400 people actually have. Them. 231 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,720 Really. Yeah, there were these early try 232 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:52,280 on reviews where they were like The Verge can try them for three 233 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:54,840 minutes at the meta conference, and they were like, my God, 234 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:56,600 these are amazing. But I've started reading reviews 235 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,640 of people who actually bought them, like a normal person at 236 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,320 Best Buy, and they're like, actually, that's kind of stuff. 237 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,640 I will say holding my baby, this is going to be terrible. 238 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,600 This is what the but it's just like, you know, eventually you 239 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,680 want to like scroll at some point you're like, Oh my God, 240 00:13:11,680 --> 00:13:14,720 like how are you feeding this thing for like hours on end 241 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,400 this. Is how I got to do nice TikTok 242 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:21,040 as I've explained many times, the 3:00 AM one, Airpod and 243 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,680 TikTok scrolling while feeding my. 244 00:13:22,680 --> 00:13:26,320 Baby, I feel bad, like I want both hands feeding the baby, you 245 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:27,480 know, it's like. No, you'll get. 246 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,480 You'll get over that part pretty quickly. 247 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,680 No, you'll you'll, you'll get to the you'll get to one hand 248 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:39,120 bottle bottle nestling mindset and then you can scroll with the 249 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:39,960 other hand. It's great. 250 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:41,480 Right. Yeah, I'm doing it already. 251 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,240 But so you're gonna buy milk? How many are you gonna buy, 252 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,520 Eric? I said the under still I'm I'm 253 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,200 still saying the under and I'm not gonna buy them and I'm 254 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,520 pretty early adopter. Yeah, we both grabbed the under. 255 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,120 James, what are you doing? No, I'm grabbing the under as 256 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:56,040 well. I just don't. 257 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,480 I think it's too complicated to buy this product. 258 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,480 Like we've all been chastened This, our performance last year, 259 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:02,640 is gonna ruin this. We were. 260 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:04,360 We were having more fun last year. 261 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,080 We were. Yeah, last year was like the. 262 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,280 Trump got excitement. Naive and optimistic. 263 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,480 Now we're like the world is. I took sad. 264 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,320 I took the. Over on Open AI revenue, for the 265 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,320 record, you guys are three straight under so far. 266 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,400 This is a tough hang. 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Let's grab 3 predictions from 280 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:09,840 Claude this time. This time I used Claude 4.1 Opus 281 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:14,400 to generate some predictions. I hope you enjoy them. 282 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,440 Let's see, Claude says Apple will acquire an AI company 283 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:24,000 valued at over 1 billion dollars, 70% probability of this 284 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,360 occurring by this time next year. 285 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,280 Oh man, I was ready to take you over. 286 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,640 But the 70%, yeah, 70% come. On that's crazy. 287 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,000 Hi. Apple's only made like 1 288 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,640 acquisition in history over a billion dollars, which was 289 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,320 Beats, and I think they look back on that as a mistake. 290 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,200 Yeah, that seems really high. Yeah. 291 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,720 I mean, I think they're like, well, we needed to build Apple 292 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,160 Music. Something, something, something 293 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:49,600 whatever. We we make some money on the 294 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,720 head, there's. Still, why they wouldn't still 295 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,080 use the Beats brand if they thought it was a mistake? 296 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:55,840 I don't. No, I think they knew they had 297 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,720 to make money on beats. I don't think it's been a 298 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,960 massive financial mistake, but I don't think anyone's looking 299 00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:01,720 back on that and being like, that was a banger. 300 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:03,720 Like we couldn't have bought Apple Music in house. 301 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,920 You know, I'm just, you know, it wasn't an OK, it wasn't like 302 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,040 some smoking hole in the ground, but it was I'm taking the. 303 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,200 Under just the the odds are terrible. 304 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,400 It's like it'd be exciting, you know, for, I mean, a billion 305 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,080 dollar acquisition isn't that big, you know, anymore and Trump 306 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:22,240 administration makes it easier. So the barriers are low. 307 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,560 But yeah, it would be once every couple years Apple does 308 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,120 something notable like that, so. Yeah, it's, it's just like the 309 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,040 track record of not doing it. It's hard to take the overlist. 310 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:37,520 70% you're literally betting 70% over on something that has 311 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,600 happened once in the last 20 years. 312 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:44,000 Like I mean, that's the, the base rate prior there is just 313 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,280 really low. I mean it I, I'm not saying it 314 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,080 won't happen, but it's just tough to to deal with that. 315 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:50,960 All right. I'll take the under as well 316 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:55,760 attempted, but yeah, the base rates not good. 317 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:02,440 All right, next one from Claude. The EU will find at least one 318 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:08,280 major AI company over €500 million for violating the AI Act 319 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:13,720 60% probability. God, these probabilities are so 320 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,680 fucking high. I'm sorry, the 60%, I mean like 321 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,400 the I'm ready to go over. I'm I want to go over. 322 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,800 I'd want to be tempted by it. Over we're going to we're going 323 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,440 to strike the AI act limitation, right for our purposes, I feel 324 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,319 like that's. Sure, too great. 325 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,840 I don't know what that means. I mean look, the EU loves 326 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,720 nothing more than fining large American companies for dumb 327 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,600 shit. That's literally what they get 328 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:41,920 up every day to do in Brussels. And yet 60% for 1/2 billion 329 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,440 dollar fine is that's high. That is high. 330 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,720 I mean, like, I feel like Mark Zuckerberg's got to do something 331 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,680 really dumb and they've got to move on it very quickly, so. 332 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,040 I mean, there's going to be all this copyright stuff. 333 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:55,840 What's the number? It's 60. 334 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,640 I feel like I should get rewarded more. 335 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,200 I I feel like they're, they're not giving us enough benefit for 336 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,400 some of these. The numbers are too high. 337 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,400 OK, I'm taking the over. I'm taking the over. 5. 100 338 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,120 million I need to I need to have somewhere where I need to you. 339 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,160 Need to live a little? You need to live a little. 340 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,240 Yeah, exactly. I'm gonna I've gotta grab the 341 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:19,640 under here because I just think that the EU wants to not be a 342 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,440 failed. I was gonna say nation state, a 343 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,240 failed continent state or whatever the hell they're doing 344 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:29,000 over there. But in AII think there's a 345 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,200 little bit more fear that they're just falling 346 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:32,840 fundamentally behind the rest of the world here. 347 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,920 And so I, I, I don't think coming out with a banger fine in 348 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,800 the next 12 months is, is what they're looking for. 349 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:38,720 I. Think we could have a lot of 350 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,840 copyright action. We saw the hysterical sort of 351 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:47,200 plagiarized every copyright and then pull it back and, and 352 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,560 there's no, you know, there's all this hostility with Trump. 353 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:50,720 So it's like, oh. So what? 354 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,760 What are you guys thinking? Foreign Affairs. 355 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,040 I'm digging the over. He's taking the over, yeah. 356 00:18:55,680 --> 00:19:00,440 OK. I'll take the under as well. 357 00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:06,800 Just going going full under under check. 358 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,320 He's all under. Like it's just like, learned 359 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,360 your lesson. Yeah, you get kicked off the 360 00:19:13,360 --> 00:19:17,400 podcast if you take no overs on. It's not enough good. 361 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,680 Yeah, not enough good drama if you don't take some overs, you 362 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,640 know? This one's interesting and you 363 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,240 know kind of it's AI generated music will chart in the Top 40 364 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:32,440 of the Billboard hot 140% probability I. 365 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,280 Got to take the over on that I feel like. 366 00:19:35,360 --> 00:19:38,960 Yeah, AI, purely AI generated music Top 40. 367 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,600 Yeah charts in the Top 40. What hold on, it doesn't say 368 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,520 purely. I just, I don't want to like get 369 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,080 into too much litigation here, but. 370 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:50,440 It but it needs to be mostly like the vocalist vocal some. 371 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,600 I mean, there's a, there's a. Little bit of opponent needs. 372 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,440 To be no, not just like no, no, no. 373 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,040 I feel like the vocals like the. It says AI part of it. 374 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,400 It says a song where AI demonstrably generated the 375 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,040 melody or the lyrics. It's not just production or 376 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,120 mixing. OK, so if it wrote it, but 377 00:20:09,120 --> 00:20:11,200 there's a vocalist singing it, we'll count that. 378 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,360 OK, Yeah. Or if the vocalist melody, the 379 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,800 vocalist, yeah, they I think they're like a major part of the 380 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,920 song is AIII. Grabbed the over because this is 381 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,360 being reported today that there's already AI music being 382 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,720 charting in the top 100 so all you need is like a good enough 383 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:27,920 song to get to the top four. Wait. 384 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,280 What is that? Yeah, there's, I will pull up 385 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,400 the name of the artist, but it was very recently reported as in 386 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,400 the last like three to three to five days. 387 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,880 Yeah, Xavier Monet is charting quote UN quote, whatever that 388 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,440 means. Maybe not top 100, but let's say 389 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:46,360 top, you know, 500 or something is an AI generated artist is now 390 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:51,120 quote UN quote charting already. Top 40 is obviously high bar and 391 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,560 the music industry kind of fucking hates these people. 392 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:56,720 So there's definitely some entrenched interest against it. 393 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,160 But I feel like now that we're seeing AI music actually 394 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,680 charting, I feel like Top 40 is is doable at 40% in the next 395 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:08,120 year and overs are more fun. Guys, come on, get in on. 396 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:09,440 Get in on the. Over train. 397 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,320 I just I just. Took it over. 398 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,280 I'm going over, I'm going, I'm jumping on, I'm jumping on the 399 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:18,120 over train. I'm with you, Max. 400 00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:24,280 Like it just seems the momentum is real behind this occurring. 401 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,720 And yeah man. If this alone happened, it's 402 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:33,040 pretty revolutionary for all the, you know, AI haters 403 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,680 watching this and be like, oh, the bullish AI people are having 404 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,200 to eat their get their comeuppance or whatever. 405 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,480 I do think, man, if this one happened alone, if you, if you 406 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,240 said that, you know, five years ago, you'd be like, what kind of 407 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,800 lunatic? This article from Billboard says 408 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,920 at least six AI or AI artists have debuted on various 409 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,320 Billboard rankings in the past few months. 410 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,320 That's. Hilarious that's but we're we're 411 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:06,280 talking about the main top. Top 40 is a is a bigger stretch 412 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,000 for sure. No, I mean you definitely have 413 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,920 to believe in an exponential progression here to get from 414 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,920 random Billboard charts to the Top 40. 415 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,280 But. Xavier Monet became the first 416 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:20,160 known AI artist to debut on a Billboard Radio chart, debuting 417 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:26,000 at #30 on the Adult R&B chart. But that's like a subcategory. 418 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,120 These are different charts, yeah. 419 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:31,720 So the main the cool one is getting on the Hot 100 I guess. 420 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,880 Yep, this is probably an aggressive prediction, but it 421 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,160 feels. Yeah, I'm taking the under. 422 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,280 It's in play. All right. 423 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,920 The under. I'm taking the over, Max is 424 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,560 over. Eric is under a major research 425 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,320 lab will demonstrate an AI system performing novel 426 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:51,200 scientific research that gets published in Nature or Science. 427 00:22:51,360 --> 00:22:55,400 35% probability. I mean, I think that there will 428 00:22:55,400 --> 00:23:00,000 be a scientific research discovery that is capable of 429 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,760 being in those journals. I'm just adjusting based on my 430 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,960 experience being married to an academic, which is that it takes 431 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,240 a long time to get published in journals. 432 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,320 That says. And novelty. 433 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,200 Novelty is hard, yeah. It's it says an AI system will 434 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,000 be credited as having autonomously designed and 435 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:24,080 interpreted an experiment that leads to a peer reviewed paper 436 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,240 in Nature or Science in the main journals. 437 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,280 Novelty will be amazing, right When when these models can 438 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,000 actually make a discovery on their own. 439 00:23:34,360 --> 00:23:37,440 We haven't, we haven't seen that really happen. 440 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,280 So I'm skeptical. Even putting aside the 441 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,400 bureaucracy of the journals, I'm skeptical that the models would 442 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:48,160 produce that level of novelty in. 12 I'll go out on a limb and 443 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,920 take the over on this one just because I think there's a lot of 444 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:57,600 incentive for the labs to make this happen because of people 445 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,840 like us asking questions. That was my movie thesis, that 446 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:01,880 river. Yeah, that's right. 447 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,280 That. Runway. 448 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,840 Runaway would insidious device to go make AAI movie? 449 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,320 Yeah. Well, they bribed someone in 450 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,760 Turkey to show it in two theaters and you know nothing 451 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,920 happened. All right, let's move on to some 452 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:20,320 predictions from Gemini 2.5 Pro. Yeah, three more to go. 453 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,480 Prediction. By this time next year, a major 454 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:31,360 US based publishing house will be awarded a judgement of 455 00:24:31,360 --> 00:24:35,400 damages against a major generative AI company in excess 456 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,360 of $50 million for copyright infringement. 457 00:24:41,360 --> 00:24:43,080 Let's include settlements, right? 458 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,800 Yeah, settlements reported. Settlements sounds good as well, 459 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:52,080 probability 40%. So Entropic just had this $1.5 460 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,480 billion settlement for stealing all the books, right, For 461 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,800 training data? Wasn't that 3000 per book or 462 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,040 something? So you said 50 million as the 463 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:01,640 number. Yeah. 464 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,600 Right, so I'm taking the over. That thought crossed my mind 465 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,720 too. That settlement was insane so. 466 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,160 Yeah, I don't know. 50 million's low. 50 million feels very 467 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:16,880 doable for and given that there literally was a settlement on 468 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,040 this exact topic of stealing books, it was 40% over, right? 469 00:25:21,120 --> 00:25:22,640 I mean, I feel like the over sounds good to me. 470 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,240 If that's the precedent, I feel like that would have counted. 471 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,600 So we're like one for one on that having happened in the last 472 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,600 12 months in my opinion. I'm picking the over like I 473 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,080 there was already a huge settlement. 474 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,560 It's a tiny amount of money in the scale of AII think yeah, 475 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,240 this is definitely going to happen. 476 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,240 I'm taking the over as well. We haven't learned our lesson, 477 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,040 folks. We're taking overs again. 478 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:47,200 We go on long enough in there. I'm I'm I'm on tilt. 479 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,520 I've taken 3. Overs 3 straight overs. 480 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,760 James want to bend. Into it, yeah. 481 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:58,640 All right, next prediction from Gemini, Apple will launch a new 482 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,920 version of iOS that introduces an on device large scale 483 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:08,040 multimodal AI assistant capable of executing multi step cross 484 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:12,720 application tasks such as summarize the last five emails 485 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:17,880 from my boss or draft a calendar event for Friday with the 486 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,880 relevant subject lines as the notes, right. 487 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,240 Relevant. Okay, yeah, no, no way. 488 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,760 They're doing this in a way that users actually like and people 489 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,200 find. Helpful. 490 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:32,280 I'm gonna go with over even at 80%, which I know is very 491 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,840 aggressive because I think this is literally the Apple 492 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,960 intelligence feature that they announced 18 months ago that did 493 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,720 not ship, that was famously delayed by a year, but that year 494 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,680 is supposedly coming to pass somewhere in the first half of 495 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:47,840 next year. So. 496 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,720 But even if I look at my like my contacts, when they try to use 497 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,080 whatever thinking like they're, they ruin everything. 498 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,400 With this I agree like it might. Like literally I have a list of 499 00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,400 my favorites. You guys are in it. 500 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,920 Don't worry, don't worry. And like, that's nice. 501 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,320 The you know, it's just like they ruin it. 502 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,200 They make it shorter. It's like I have a nice long 503 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,920 list and you like decide to make four of them big. 504 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,640 Like how is that helping me? You know I. 505 00:27:12,120 --> 00:27:16,240 I'm Apple is not doing a lot of things right right now, but I'm 506 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,360 just. You're like, they're going to do 507 00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:21,200 it anyway and it's no. I'm like, they announced this 508 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:25,840 exact thing that James is describing and they failed to 509 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,000 ship it and they basically had a whole come to Jesus moment where 510 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,520 they basically had to like fire the whole team that was 511 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,120 responsible for this and replace it ironically with Gemini. 512 00:27:35,120 --> 00:27:37,040 So maybe that's why Gemini's like got a little inside 513 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,680 information on this. So yeah, anyway, I'll take the 514 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,240 over. I just find it hard to believe 515 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:43,880 they're going to delay it more than another year. 516 00:27:44,360 --> 00:27:47,280 And I think that the what they've, what they've announced 517 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,320 satisfies these obligations to the prediction. 518 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,000 All right, you guys. Have to decide though. 519 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,920 Yeah, I already didn't already say I took the under on it. 520 00:27:54,120 --> 00:27:58,040 You took the under, I'll take the Yeah with Max on. 521 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,040 I think we have to have some rigor. 522 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,400 As long as we have some rigor around, like they can't just say 523 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,200 we did it. Like it needs to be something 524 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,720 people actually use and don't just like turn off. 525 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,280 Like somebody has to find some value in it like. 526 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,680 I actually think this is a pretty interesting prediction to 527 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,000 debate because 80% is a really high probability, right? 528 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,720 So like, we're James and I are like, this is fucking happening, 529 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,040 you know, like. We're saying they're destroying 530 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,440 their phone, my phone with the dumb shit that they're doing. 531 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,040 Are they really gonna be so consumer unfriendly to do 532 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:34,680 complicated multi stage things? They'll like destroy the user 533 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,080 experience? I, I don't we believe in Apple 534 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,360 enough to say, hey, and also if the bubble burst and they're 535 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,600 like, hey, we were, we were high on kool-aid with everybody else. 536 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,520 We're we're not going to be those people. 537 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,360 I don't know. A lot could happen, you know? 538 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,280 I'm interested to see how this prediction goes. 539 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,640 All right, one more James Gemini 1. 540 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,800 More one more Gemini, one more unscripted AAA game. 541 00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:00,360 The prediction from Gemini is that at least one AAA video game 542 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:05,000 having a marketing and development budget over $100 543 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:10,080 million will be released in 2026 that has prominent real time 544 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:14,200 generative AI powered features such as dialogue. 545 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,680 Real time is interesting. Probability. 546 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,040 Probability 35%. I mean, I gotta grab the under 547 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,720 on that I just. James and I work. 548 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,040 James and I work in gaming. If there's anything we know 549 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,840 about gaming, it's that AAA studios take almost no risks 550 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,080 with these games. When we see the indie game 551 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:32,840 first, like the indie games haven't done. 552 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,600 This Yeah. Man, I wonder who's gonna make 553 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,400 an indie game with generated dialogue in real time? 554 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,480 Launching Launching sometime in November. 555 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:45,600 Tee this up you guys like. Gemini generate this prediction. 556 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,920 Come in, come. The end of the podcast is like 557 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,760 coming from Bali. Yeah, I will. 558 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,640 Say, I will say, as someone who's intimately familiar with 559 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,000 using real time generated dialogue to make an indie game, 560 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,760 it's still harder than you think to make it generate interesting 561 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:08,120 stuff for every player. I mean, I think Fortnite had 562 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:12,680 some generative feature at one point last year, right? 563 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,680 Or was it early this year where it was like Darth Vader was 564 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,680 using 11 labs and generating stuff on the fly and. 565 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,720 Yes, yes, I got Vader. Lead your squad to victory, 566 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,320 Holy. Shit, Vader, we took a blinker 567 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,200 with me. A blinker jerk mate. 568 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,600 This some basic mating ritual I am unfamiliar. 569 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,440 With so I don't know, I would have counted that and I guess 570 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,040 right. I mean, I guess really one day 571 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,320 it was a one day thing and then they turned it off. 572 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,400 It's like me. Oh, that's yeah. 573 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,320 No. That wouldn't count for this 574 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:44,360 prediction, right? What's it say? 575 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,120 Like a major feature or something? 576 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,640 Wow, it's like a new $100 million AAA game, I thought, or 577 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,080 something. I'm saying prominently, 578 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,720 prominently features real time. So I don't think that would have 579 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:55,080 counted. But if that had been like a 580 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,000 permanent new feature of Fortnite? 581 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,360 In a big part of the game, yeah, yeah, yeah. 582 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,240 Yeah, OK. I mean, yeah, so there, there's 583 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:02,760 room for. The over. 584 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,400 So you're taking the over. I'm just saying this is like not 585 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,320 out. Are you taking out of the are 586 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,360 you? I'm gonna, I'm gonna take the 587 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,320 under because that Fortnite, I think completely flopped and 588 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,800 failed and like, they shut it down and, you know, Darth. 589 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,160 Vader was, and they said instantly, the world's 590 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,200 expensive. Instantly became racist. 591 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,320 Yeah. Like I think we're, we're gonna 592 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,440 take the under in that we're we're all taking the under. 593 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,840 I gotta take the under. I just think these are such risk 594 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,560 averse companies. And to your point, the one risk 595 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,760 taking in this industry, the one risk that was taken in this 596 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,200 industry did not materialize in a positive way. 597 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,000 So I don't know. Yeah, I'd love to be wrong. 598 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,080 For the record, that would be great if people would start. 599 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,240 Being more AI is more bullish about AI than we are. 600 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,680 I hope somebody does do this. I think it'd be awesome. 601 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,880 All right, and that wraps the predictions episode. 602 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,400 Nice check back. Good one next year. 603 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,840 Yeah, great. Our next episode we will be 604 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,160 bringing you the biggest hits from the street Bull Valley AI 605 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:00,840 Summit, which is on November 12th. 606 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,400 We'll be bringing some of our on stage interviews, our favorite 607 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,600 ones right here on In the Newcomer podcast and in your 608 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,120 podcast feeds. Thanks Max and James, go play 609 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:15,800 song quiz, go play some volley games on your Roku TV or where 610 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:17,520 else? We're gonna actually show you 611 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,760 our real time AI game at some point and then you will have 612 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,560 something interesting to say. Is it out company? 613 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:22,760 Is it out? Is it out? 614 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,160 We can play a beta right now, so let's set it up. 615 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:26,000 Great. Yeah. 616 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:26,760 Sounds good. All right. 617 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:27,160 Bye. Bye. 618 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,040 See you guys. Thank you for tuning in to this 619 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,960 week's episode of the podcast. If you're new here, please like 620 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,320 and subscribe. Really helps out the channel. 621 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,960 Listen to new episodes every week wherever you get your 622 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:38,640 podcasts.