1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,680 I've never understood why rational people believe in God. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:08,560 It just makes no sense. I didn't sour on philanthropy. 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:13,640 I soured on the efficiency with which philanthropy works. 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,440 Are you going to go all in for AOC in the president? 5 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:18,680 I I feel like you're much more of a Don't your fellow venture 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:20,000 capitalists want to murder you over this? 7 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,520 Is Vinod Khosla in 25 years a socialist? 8 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,200 He called technology as religion before AI existed. 9 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,760 Now he thinks it can deliver something no religion ever 10 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,400 could. Material abundance for everyone 11 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,040 on Earth. Today I'm talking to Vinod 12 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,760 Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, one of the earliest 13 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:41,320 VCs to bet on open AII. Couldn't get my head around why. 14 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,760 He seems to. Support tons of liberal programs 15 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:48,200 but hates AOC and Momdani. We're talking post capitalism, 16 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,280 the Silicon Valley New Deal, and why this billionaire thinks a 17 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,440 little differently from his friends in venture capital. 18 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,840 I'm Eric, author of the newcomer Substack, where I write about 19 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,200 startups and venture capital. Now let's get into it. 20 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:12,200 I was looking at an old 2014 interview you did where you said 21 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,120 technology is my religion. And I think that dates back. 22 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:17,960 You know, I think that was a take you started cooking up 23 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,360 maybe in the early 2000s, and now we live in this world of AI. 24 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,560 Obviously, you were the first venture capital investor in AI. 25 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,680 Feels like AI could create a religion of its own. 26 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,720 Yet is technology still your religion? 27 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,000 It is. And you know, I've since I was a 28 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,480 little kid, I've had an opposition to religion because 29 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:46,040 especially in India, it's about manipulating people to do do 30 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,560 your bidding and really give you revenue. 31 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:55,720 If I look at the Catholic Church, all the money collects 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:57,760 from all over the developing world. 33 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:06,200 It's just criminal in it goes into golden accompaniments in 34 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,680 the Vatican. It's a poor use of money. 35 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:17,560 When you look at technology, it has the ability to benefit 36 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:22,920 humanity in a way no other technology does. 37 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:27,120 If I look at where we are today, probably 10% of the global 38 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:32,240 population has a rich lifestyle. And by rich, I mean rich in 39 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,800 housing, rich in healthcare, rich in entertainment, rich in 40 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:41,000 transportation, rich in education. 41 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:47,680 If you get to 100% of the population, being rich and 42 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,760 everything will destroy the planet. 43 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,320 If you do it the way we've done it for the top 10%, ten times 44 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:58,640 the number of cars, 10 times the number of amount of cement or 45 00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:05,200 steel or energy or everything else, the only solution that 46 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:09,000 necessary, it's not sufficient. It's, it's necessary but not 47 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:14,320 sufficient, is to have technology multiplied resources. 48 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:19,440 And in fact, I've long believed that and said technology can 49 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,480 help. And with the advent of AI, which 50 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:28,240 was not really a thing when I first said this, it's become so 51 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:34,120 real to me that the world can be such a different place in the 52 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,760 next 25 years. By 2050, we can have a very 53 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,880 different world. There's so much we're going to 54 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,680 entangle, I think with this one idea, right? 55 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,400 Because there's the piece of it that is improving quality of 56 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,760 life, really the main thing we can sort of deliver to people. 57 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,720 Because I think we're also in this crisis of meaning. 58 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,840 There's the climate element, there's the how technology, 59 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:01,760 what, what it's like, you know, to be a billionaire 100 years 60 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,640 ago and whether that's better, you'd rather be alive today or, 61 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:06,400 you know, the Super wealthy of 100 years ago. 62 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:08,840 So there's so many pieces of it I want to get into, and we will 63 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,240 get into just the first. When you say it like technology 64 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,080 is a religion, you don't believe in God, right? 65 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:15,920 I don't believe in God. Yeah, we share that. 66 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:20,120 I, I grew up, my mom's partner was a Unitarian Universalist 67 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,160 minister in Macon, GA So I was very much, you know, the liberal 68 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,720 moms in the South arguing with people about, oh, there's no 69 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,560 God. I literally in public school 70 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,680 have teachers on the board trying to which I love trying to 71 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,560 make arguments for, you know, religion because it was, you 72 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,840 know, so I, I share that sort of, yeah, not not believing in 73 00:04:39,840 --> 00:04:43,120 God, but I think at the same time, there's this crisis of 74 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,880 meaning in the country right now. 75 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:50,120 Do you think technology in the technology industry can really 76 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,960 like, give them, give the public sort of the meaning they crave 77 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,640 and it's just like improving their quality of life the same 78 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,360 thing as giving them an answer to this question? 79 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,400 So those are very different questions, right? 80 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:06,200 I I've never understood why rational people believe in God. 81 00:05:06,840 --> 00:05:10,480 It just makes no sense. I believe and admit there's some 82 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,800 infinitesimally small probability God exists, but 83 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,400 there's no proof. In fact all the proof is to the 84 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:21,920 contrary. But you still have to allow for 85 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,360 a probability that's very very low. 86 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,680 But if you're rational, you believe in the highest 87 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,440 probability things, which is no God exists because there's never 88 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,320 been proof of God. Why do people believe in it? 89 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:40,600 Because their brains have been programmed from age 3 or 4 to do 90 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:47,320 this and this. So being religious is being 91 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:55,360 programmed by an ecosystem. And so my world view is meaning 92 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,840 shouldn't come from being programmed, then you're a slave 93 00:05:58,840 --> 00:06:04,000 to God and open to exploitation by religion as a surrogate for 94 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:10,200 God. I'd rather say what are you? 95 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,720 What are you programmed to do? And I won't go into the meaning 96 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:18,080 of life, but. That is sort of what I'm getting 97 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:20,640 at though, because I get certainly I agree with you, we 98 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,960 shouldn't let me. Explain that a little 99 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:27,800 differently. What should the brain brain be 100 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:31,920 programmed to do? In the old world, there was 101 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,520 religion. It was the only way to keep 102 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,000 people under control. In fact, 500 years ago, you 103 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:44,600 couldn't even get to a remote location, maybe by horseback. 104 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:48,720 It took five days. You couldn't enforce any laws 105 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,960 and so you had to have the fear of God in people as a law 106 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,800 enforcement mechanism to be good. 107 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,960 Otherwise God would punish you. So maybe it even served a really 108 00:06:59,960 --> 00:07:05,120 useful purpose a long time ago of law enforcement was the 109 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:14,000 purpose of the fear of God. Today, and if I look at last 50 110 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,720 years, what do we program kids with? 111 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:21,760 We program kids with if you're 5, go to school, do your 112 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,400 homework, do well, you go to college, you'll get a good job. 113 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:31,440 So all of it is about income and supporting yourself. 114 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:36,480 It's not about meaning. I think what changes 115 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:42,120 dramatically, yeah, is for today's 5 year old child born 116 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,080 today. I had a grandchild born 2 weeks 117 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,920 ago. You. 118 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,080 You had a grandchild. I had a Congratulations. 119 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,480 I have a. Seven month old daughter. 120 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,000 So I'm I'm new to this game not but it's it's an exciting time. 121 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:56,240 It's amazing. It's very exciting, I. 122 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,360 Mean meaning at the moment is reading a children's book like 123 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,920 if you, if I had to ask directly, like what is meaning 124 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,720 in your life? It is, even though she doesn't 125 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,400 really understand it right now, just having her pay attention 126 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,240 and reading a book with beautiful art and rhyme and 127 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,240 human language. So that is different kind of 128 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:18,720 meaning whether you're a human being or an animal. 129 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,200 Looking after a young is just instinctive. 130 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,400 Otherwise we wouldn't multiply as a species. 131 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:35,360 So what will my grandchild, when they're 5, be programmed that 132 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:41,240 hopefully to be human, to care about the things that today 133 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,080 people don't have time for. Looking after their kids, 134 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,200 looking after their grandparents, parents, the 135 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,760 relationships that matter. I think that should be meaning 136 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,320 striving to be whatever you want to be good at. 137 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,680 And this could be pretty random. I want to be awesome at surfing. 138 00:08:59,680 --> 00:09:02,760 I want to be awesome at singing. I want to be awesome at 139 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:04,600 painting. I want to be awesome. 140 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:05,320 Are you? Are you? 141 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,160 Post capitalist now because you're you're saying that the 142 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,640 story recently was do all the right things, climb the ladder, 143 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,960 get a great job. Now you're saying go surfing, 144 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:15,480 spend time with your family? Like is this? 145 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:20,920 Post I'm saying for the first time kids born now we'll be able 146 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:25,480 to exercise freedom. Look at most of the jobs in this 147 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,600 country today. They're not jobs. 148 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,480 They're not meaningful jobs, even though people call them 149 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,440 meaningful. If you're a farm worker in 150 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:40,080 Salinas in 100° heat picking lettuce 8 hours a day for 30 or 151 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,320 40 years and then don't have retirement income. 152 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,040 So you depend on your kids. That's not jobs. 153 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,640 If you're if you're assembly line worker at General Motors 154 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:54,960 mounting a tire on a car for 8 hours a day for 30 or 40 years 155 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,600 or till your back gives out, that's not job. 156 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:01,160 That's servitude to survival. I think that's what it is. 157 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,000 So do you think the American social contract, like if you're, 158 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,160 I'm going to spend time with my kids and surf, should America 159 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:12,600 provide you healthcare and and the basic standard of living? 160 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:16,200 Or do you need to still find, even if it's just 10 hours a 161 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:20,760 week, something that the economy says is meaningful? 162 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:28,720 Well, first, in 25 years we can have great abundance so people 163 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,960 don't have to strive for a living. 164 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:35,320 They don't have to do everything so they can pay their mortgage 165 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,760 or support their kids or feed their kids. 166 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:43,320 And it's sad when you have to do that, but it's necessity today, 167 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,640 an economic necessity that will go away. 168 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:53,480 I think all goods will become abundant almost every level. 169 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:58,720 You'll have so much abundance. Distribution won't be an issue. 170 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,840 People will still be people. People love competing. 171 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,160 So today it's I have a bigger house because I have a better 172 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,760 job and I can do more. I think it'll be competing in 173 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:12,840 the Olympics, It'll be competing in X Games or. 174 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:15,760 You're saying that's where we'll get meaning or that's where 175 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,600 we'll get money? That's where we really get 176 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:22,800 meaning, because competing is a human trait, right? 177 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:24,800 We will. Still need money to allocate 178 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,200 like 0 sum resources like houses. 179 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,600 Yes, there are few and housing is the one area that is the 180 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,040 hardest to see how it's dramatically impacted. 181 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,880 I could see the cost of housing going down by 20 or 30% and we 182 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:44,760 we can go down that alley later. It's it's hard because it's so 183 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,960 much physical goods. But will we have shortage of 184 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,320 copper or lithium? No. 185 00:11:50,560 --> 00:11:53,440 So is Vinod Kosland, 25 years a socialist? 186 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:59,600 I believe we will have so much abundance and depends on how you 187 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:06,600 define socialism or capitalism. Socialism is not everybody 188 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:11,520 shares equally. My personal view is everybody 189 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:17,160 gets a best level of guaranteed lifestyle provided by the 190 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,960 government and that's the socialist part. 191 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,960 But then they can do more whether they choose to pursue 192 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,960 more income or their passion and happens to generate income. 193 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:33,000 I I don't think Beyoncé got into singing for making more money. 194 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:37,920 She got in because she has a passion for for singing, but it 195 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,680 also happens to generate money. So I do think people will 196 00:12:41,680 --> 00:12:44,840 follow. For the first time, kids born 197 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:49,160 today will be free to follow their passion and be more human 198 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,960 then they've been allowed to be in the face of economic 199 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,040 pressures. I think that's the big 200 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,080 liberation. AI will free humans to be humans 201 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,480 and do what they come naturally, spend time with their kids, 202 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,600 spend time to their parents, spend times on their passion I. 203 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,080 Think there are a lot of people watching this that are going to 204 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:12,000 say why not cash in now like we have a technological abundance 205 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,160 today, you know, we could produce the food that we need. 206 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,000 Why not sort of create the utopia today? 207 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,440 Why is it always sort of, you know, a couple decades from? 208 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,200 Now today, there's a distribution problem. 209 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:30,800 OK, because goods aren't cheap, you know, there's no question in 210 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:35,520 in a few years, even now, you could provide free primary care 211 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:40,440 to every citizen in this country, in fact, every citizen 212 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:45,400 of the planet, All billion and a half people in India could get 213 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,600 free primary carefree. This is like a bridge. 214 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,160 Open evidence you're you're saying use. 215 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:55,440 AI Yeah, I'm, I'm saying AI doctors, not AI tools, tools are 216 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,040 for humans to use. I think we are past that. 217 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:03,080 Free AI tutors for every child. And I'm doing such a project in 218 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,920 India to make free AI tutors for every child. 219 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,280 It's a non profit effort. Free AI doctors for every 220 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,920 person. And it's not only just the 221 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,240 primary care doctor, because the same AI is also a great 222 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:20,800 endocrinologist or a great gastroenterologist, AI 223 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,800 oncologist, Everybody gets that and it's almost free. 224 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:29,080 It's cheap enough where one person can do it for a country 225 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,800 like India. And I hope we can do that, 226 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,680 though I'm also doing an AI agronomist for the small 227 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,880 farmers. So those things should all be 228 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,760 free. Entertainment should be near 229 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,080 free. The cost of production is going 230 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:48,040 down dramatically. People talk about AI slop, but 231 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:52,720 it's on the learning curve of improving at such a fast pace. 232 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:58,120 Soon we will have AI that's tuned to each person that they 233 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,480 love based on their watching history and maybe their rating 234 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,560 history. So entertainment, legal 235 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:08,400 services, so people can access their legal rights, education, 236 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,640 healthcare, those can all be free. 237 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,960 Anything that relies on expertise will cost a dollar an 238 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:17,520 hour. I mean, a key insight here is 239 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,200 the things that don't require asking another person to do work 240 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,960 for you, where where something can be autonomously provided is 241 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,880 something that can be a benefit versus, you know, sometimes the 242 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,440 socialist case goes wrong when they're sort of insisting upon 243 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,680 other people acting on their behalf and taking their time 244 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:36,440 for. Themselves and relying on the 245 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,240 efficiency of people doing things because people have other 246 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:44,520 motivations. AI will be just as efficient in 247 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,960 government as outside. You know, it's something people 248 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:53,760 haven't got. Efficiency comes from humans or 249 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:59,440 inefficiency come in in government comes from humans and 250 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,840 bureaucracy and all that. All that can be automated way. 251 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:08,520 So my view, we entered this world of abundance. 252 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:11,880 And back to your original question, where will people 253 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:17,560 follow meaning because they will be programmed from age 5 to be 254 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,960 express their desires and be themselves, whether it's their 255 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,240 relationship with their parents or it's a relationship with 256 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:29,400 their passion for sports or art or something else. 257 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,760 I think that's it's a very liberating kind of it's. 258 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,560 Very structured. It's very you're, you're sort of 259 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,160 trusting the average person to create their like self story. 260 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,360 I feel like a challenge of the Trump world is that people want 261 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,840 these leaders that, you know, you know, fascism is appealing 262 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,600 because it's like the strongman leader who you can project all 263 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,440 these views onto. Like who do you think like 264 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,240 should be our societies like heroes today? 265 00:16:55,160 --> 00:17:03,160 Who are our heroes today, right? I would say used to be, you 266 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,839 know, I like to say used to be only the basketball stars, 267 00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:11,640 right, The sports stars. And then when entrepreneurship 268 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:16,240 really became a thing in the late 90s and it was existed long 269 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:20,599 before then, but people got to recognize a Larry Page or a Mark 270 00:17:20,599 --> 00:17:22,680 Zuckerberg and they became heroes. 271 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:27,040 So lots of people started thinking they could be they 272 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:31,680 could be an entrepreneur. I think the next big turn first 273 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,200 most of corporate America should be 4 times more efficient, which 274 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,400 means to get the same amount of goods and services, maybe 1/4 to 275 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:46,040 110th the number of people for enterprise in the what happens 276 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,440 to the rest of the people? They can be micro entrepreneurs. 277 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:55,400 How many people want to work at IBM's 4 levels down at a desk? 278 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,880 Or would they rather be their own boss? 279 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:03,080 I think micro entrepreneurship becomes trivially easy because 280 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,760 AI does your accounting for. You like I'm a hero, I'm a sole 281 00:18:07,120 --> 00:18:10,240 or now I have a small team from small business owners and. 282 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:16,720 All the whole creator phenomena is because it became easy to be 283 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,040 a creator if you had some talent. 284 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,960 And so we've seen millions and millions of creators created 285 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:31,280 almost overnight in the last couple of years that projected 286 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:36,600 forward many, many times. If you're a great Baker and make 287 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,600 the greatest bread, it's very hard to be in business. 288 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,760 You have to get an accountant, you have to get a lawyer, you 289 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,680 have to incorporate, you have to know marketing, you have to know 290 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,120 sales. You got to know all these 291 00:18:47,120 --> 00:18:50,080 things. If AI does all those functions 292 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,800 and there's start-ups that say will will the creator in the box 293 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,840 where you're the creator, everything else is taken care of 294 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,160 you. That will happen for every micro 295 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,280 entrepreneur, whether you have a passion or skill at carving wood 296 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:08,640 or baking or entertaining, it doesn't matter. 297 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:15,080 I would guess by 2035, ten years from now, that's a very short 298 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:20,320 time, we will have 1/4 the number of corporate employees, 299 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:25,400 maybe less and we will have 50 million micro entrepreneurs 300 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,400 doing their thing, being their own boss and some people won't 301 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:30,880 want to there's. Actually a lot of work, you 302 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,360 know, being a micro entrepreneur, you know, today 303 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,320 it's easier to be an employee, you know, you make more money. 304 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,360 It's obviously amazing to be able to run a business and you 305 00:19:38,360 --> 00:19:40,400 can sign a big deal and make more money. 306 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,280 But it is a lot of work. Back to the meaning of life. 307 00:19:44,360 --> 00:19:47,160 I don't think people are afraid of work. 308 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,960 They're afraid of work, working for a boss who doesn't 309 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,520 appreciate them. And most people in the country 310 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,440 would say that's true. Most people in the world would 311 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,000 say that's true. I think what matters is when 312 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:06,280 people have agency, and that agency is being a micro 313 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,720 entrepreneur, doing your thing, You're the boss, you're 314 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,840 responsible. People love taking 315 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,880 responsibility. I think that's where meaning 316 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,160 comes from, from more people and their life will be more 317 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,320 meaningful than working in a cubicle or an assembly line. 318 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:27,120 Or on a farm you've. You've, you know, looking back 319 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:30,600 into the 2414 article, I need to, it's like the business is a 320 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,880 publication in India. I can't remember exactly the 321 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,840 name, but you, you were early to be sort of soured on 322 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,600 philanthropy. I think the tech industry sort 323 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,760 of has grown more sceptical, though now you're talking about 324 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:45,520 some philanthropic efforts. I did sour on philanthropy. 325 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,600 I soured on the efficiency with which philanthropy works. 326 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:55,560 There's a big difference. I think there's great pleasure 327 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,440 in giving. There is, but if it's really 328 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:03,120 inefficient, then it doesn't appeal to people like me. 329 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,640 There's plenty of people who don't care about efficiency and 330 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:07,760 say you. Just don't want a bunch of 331 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,280 bureaucrats taking the money along the way to whatever. 332 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,360 Consultants and people writing reports and. 333 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,800 Right, because then you're effectively when you're creating 334 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,280 the misery you're trying to get rid of, it's. 335 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,400 Fully leads compliant. It's not lead certified. 336 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,880 Why? Because there was 5 consultants 337 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:30,320 who wanted to have a take at certifying it on this or that. 338 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,800 I hate that bureaucracy. So I'm not leads qualified. 339 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,960 I don't care. I'm happy to know how I built 340 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:41,360 the building and how sustainable it is, how climate efficient it 341 00:21:41,360 --> 00:21:43,320 is. That's all I care about. 342 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,960 So I think people have have motivation more internal than 343 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,760 external, and they will do what they have a passion for and they 344 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,200 have much more agency. I think agency is the key to 345 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,480 human meaning. You have agency to do what you 346 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,560 want and the freedom to pursue it because your basic needs are 347 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:09,640 taken care of instead of today's jobs, which are for more than 348 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,760 50% of the jobs in this country, service you to survival. 349 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:20,560 Everybody can't wait to retire. Yeah, I, I just, I feel like the 350 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,000 first of all, people always shift sort of the minimum that 351 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,760 they want to meet all. That will happen. 352 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,040 But you know, I just do think goods. 353 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,120 Will be infinitely flexible. The services you need will all 354 00:22:32,120 --> 00:22:37,040 be free and infinitely flexible, other than token costs and power 355 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:41,200 costs for tokens. Yeah, I do think the challenge 356 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,920 is it's all, it seems like it's always we're almost there. 357 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,600 You know, it's like, I mean, looking back, I think you said 358 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,760 in that 24 interview that I'm really latching onto, you said 359 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:56,160 in 15 years everybody would be able to get the quality of care 360 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,880 you could get at Stanford, yes, which you still have time, but 361 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:01,520 do you think that's going to come true? 362 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:12,280 Absolutely 2040, I had projected 2040 OK and I think it'll be way 363 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,320 before. I think this is 2029 but. 364 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:21,040 I I wrote a long paper on healthcare called 20% Doctor 365 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:25,760 included in 2016, which is when I published it and I projected 366 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,840 2040 and my part was. Somebody was like, oh, give 367 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,360 yourself a little bit more wiggle room. 368 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,440 You had a good advice. No, I. 369 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:41,320 Assumed 3 eight-year cycles. In fact I called it V1V2V3 all 370 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,560 the way to V8. If there were three-year 371 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:49,040 innovation cycles and it'd be 24 years or roughly 2040. 372 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,680 There's not great precision in any of this. 373 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:56,080 In fact, all of what I projected happening much faster. 374 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,640 I won't say who somebody from the healthcare establishment 375 00:24:02,120 --> 00:24:04,680 won. The better known names had been 376 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:09,240 critiquing me for the last 10 years for this projection came 377 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,560 to me last year and said he was wrong. 378 00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:15,840 He's a public health policy person. 379 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:21,800 He was absolutely wrong. I was wrong, but I was right. 380 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,760 But I was wrong in projecting it take much longer. 381 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:30,640 So I think he would say today and we're doing a joint 382 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:35,560 publications, so I won't so publication in a medical journal 383 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:40,360 together saying AI will do doctoring better than doctors 384 00:24:40,360 --> 00:24:42,000 is. We're already seeing some. 385 00:24:42,120 --> 00:24:44,480 We've seen lots of examples of that. 386 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:47,800 And my sense is doctors are embracing. 387 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,560 I mean, they're overworked, you know, they want to get the right 388 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,080 answers. They want to help people. 389 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,240 Are in a different business than they thought they would be when 390 00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:00,440 they were in medical school. Most doctors got into medicine 391 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,840 because they enjoy taking care of people, right? 392 00:25:04,360 --> 00:25:07,120 Today, they're slaves to billing. 393 00:25:08,360 --> 00:25:12,120 You are at the hospital, you're billing, meeting billing codes, 394 00:25:12,120 --> 00:25:14,600 not what's the best patient care. 395 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,360 And what empathy. Empathy isn't the characteristic 396 00:25:18,360 --> 00:25:23,720 that's optimized in medicine today and most doctors got into 397 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,680 it because of empathy for people who needed help. 398 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,000 I think that's true of the majority of doctors, not 100% 399 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:37,320 and some percentage have still mostly work on empathy for and a 400 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:41,800 sense of service so. Look, just a direct question, do 401 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,040 you support single payer healthcare today? 402 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,520 Today, absolutely it'd be a fraction of the cost if we had 403 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,400 single payer healthcare and rapidly declining costs if we 404 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,080 did that. I think we're people are wrong 405 00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:02,720 is to assume that single payer will be too expensive. 406 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,560 The cost of healthcare in this country, the $4 trillion could 407 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:12,480 easily cut, you know, and it's a, it's, it's on a pretty strong 408 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,880 inflationary cycle that'll become rapidly deflationary if 409 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,440 we had single payer. Why can't you get? 410 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,080 You know, the sort of right, you know, can, can you get Keith 411 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,160 Roboy on on board with that one or like what's the resistance 412 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,760 among sort of your, your fellows in the tech? 413 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,920 Industry, there's a general assumption because there's no 414 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:36,400 proof that single payer will become inefficient and fraud and 415 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,280 all those things. The thing is, if a doctor costs 416 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,920 a dollar a month for every American, imagine it costs a 417 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:50,240 couple of $100 million a month to give free doctoring to every 418 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,920 American. And that means primary care. 419 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:57,200 It means gaps in care, it means chronic disease management, it 420 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:01,600 costs means mental health for a dollar an hour. 421 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:06,720 How much downstream cost would you reduce today? 422 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,280 All the incentive. All the incentive. 423 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:16,360 Why is every hospital system start with Stanford or UC buying 424 00:27:16,360 --> 00:27:18,960 small medical clinics? Not because they want to run 425 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,880 them well, they want to feed off their cardiac patients, right? 426 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,800 Are you going to go all in for AOC in the president? 427 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,880 I I feel like you're much more of a less than you even sort of 428 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,320 see yourself. You're to support single payer. 429 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,480 You want what you said you want capital gains taxes, income tax, 430 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,800 which would be dramatic. Here's here's the problem with 431 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:43,240 AOC. She has this model of the well 432 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,520 off against the not so well off that is not. 433 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:47,760 You want to be. You just don't want to be 434 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:49,240 villainized. If you weren't villainized, 435 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:53,960 you'd be OK with it. No, I think what I'm for is what 436 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,880 technology enables in this country. 437 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:01,240 In the next 10 years, basic services become so cheap we 438 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,040 don't need to meet around. I was in the board of a Telecom 439 00:28:05,120 --> 00:28:11,440 US West quest when I argue that it was costing them more to send 440 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,680 the paper bill to people's homes than to provide the telecom 441 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:21,280 service and stop charging. By the minute 90s almost 442 00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:24,240 everything was built. Every phone call was built by 443 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:30,120 the minute and today every medical visit is built by the 444 00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:32,320 visit. That should go away. 445 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,640 I don't understand how does this connect to the AOC point. 446 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,200 To the if things are cheap, then you can give them. 447 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,840 I still do think AOC doesn't care about economics and there's 448 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,240 plenty tax people. That's just the wrong approach. 449 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:53,080 I think what's the right and and and you know, AOC and Bernie 450 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,280 Sanders all said, let's not let people lay off jobs like those 451 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:01,200 are all the wrong things in the intermediate thing the. 452 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,920 Pro union lock in jobs, not like a dynamic economy. 453 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,240 That's a really bad way to run an economy. 454 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,320 It'll sink the economy before we get to abundance. 455 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,720 If we free up the economy, and I'll come back to this point and 456 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:20,280 protect people against their biggest fear, which is AI will 457 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:25,520 cause my job to be lost, We protect those people, then we 458 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:29,440 can have a very efficient economy. 459 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,320 All of corporate America getting much more efficient. 460 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,400 The revenue per employee, every CEOI meet. 461 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:43,200 I say within five years you could quadruple your revenue per 462 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,960 employee and every CEO should be striving for that. 463 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,160 And it's very possible. Let's let's do. 464 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,720 It I I just really think like. I still wondering all over the. 465 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,760 Place no, no, I love it. No, no, I'm I'm supporting what 466 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,560 you're saying. I'm saying we need a Silicon 467 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,000 Valley new deal. It's like you get single payer 468 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,160 healthcare. We reform the tax code. 469 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,200 We say, oh, there's a minimum quality of life every American 470 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,600 can have. But in exchange, we're not going 471 00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,000 to be super pro union. We're not going to sort of jerk 472 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,000 around companies and it's going to be about sort of minimum 473 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:16,000 government standards instead of sort of distorting capitalism 474 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,040 and stopping companies from being able to be dynamic. 475 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,480 We shouldn't. Distort capitalism, but we 476 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,280 should recognize capitalism is by permission of democracy. 477 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,080 You know, we really get a mumdani elected. 478 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:32,400 My biggest fear is we get a mumdani elected, AOC runs for 479 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:37,080 president and there's this anti AI backlash for fear of jobs 480 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:41,080 that elects AOC. You know, look, Trump got 481 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,400 elected because people were fed up with the nonsense of 482 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:49,800 everything became ADEI issue. DI went to extremes that it 483 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,680 shouldn't have gone to. I can't use certain words. 484 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,920 I I I can't even. Nothing Americans say more than 485 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:57,640 being told what they can and can't say. 486 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:03,920 Yeah, that that kind of nonsense went so far all because of the 487 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:05,720 extreme left. And there's different 488 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,720 constituencies even in the left. Ma'am, Donnie, you know, I live 489 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,640 in New York City. He has taken a very pragmatic 490 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,640 approach that to succeed in governing from the left, you 491 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,080 actually have to deliver results. 492 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,160 You know, he brags about the potholes. 493 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,840 He talks about public safety. I really do. 494 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,160 I didn't talk about where he's going to get revenue. 495 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,760 He wants new taxes. I mean, I'm sure you would sign 496 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,000 on to your capital gains one he's trying to do get a terror 497 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,720 taxes. There's rational reasons and 498 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:42,320 irrational reasons to do this. OK, for the next 15 years, so 499 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:48,400 let's say to 2040 before we get to abundance in 2050, we want a 500 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,840 fair economy. What is AI doing? 501 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:56,080 It's disadvantaging capital, boosting the returns on capital. 502 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,720 That's why you get so much more investment going in. 503 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:04,040 It's suppressing the results for Labour. 504 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,360 So Labour is 16 trillion of the USGDP. 505 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:13,200 That will keep declining. And I think we could, if we let 506 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,800 systems be efficient and let every corporation do what they 507 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,520 want to do without people embarrassing them against 508 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:26,240 layoffs, we'd have it. Labour be, say, 5 trillion of 509 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:35,040 the US economy in real terms. That much decline in labour is a 510 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,120 big, big deal, right? OK, but you agree. 511 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,240 And guess what? Who gets the benefit? 512 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,960 Capital, right. And what do we do in our tax 513 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,040 system? We favor capital over labor. 514 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,320 Why are ordinary income taxes much, much higher than capital 515 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,240 gains? Because we we've got all these 516 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:59,120 tax breaks, every tax break, and there's ten of them I could 517 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,520 point to, is worth thirty, $40 billion to the US. 518 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:03,680 Country. My, my point is the things 519 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,720 you're saying right now are things that bring you closer to 520 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,240 AOC Mamdani. And my point is that I. 521 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,200 Believe the thing that. Turns you off most about them is 522 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,560 that they villainize the billionaire class, but actually 523 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,680 you have a lot of policy agreement. 524 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:18,920 No, there's not policy agreement. 525 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:24,280 I'm not saying slow down layoffs like Bernie Sanders. 526 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,760 Is right you're saying smaller companies Yeah has been very 527 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,480 anti AI I feel like. AOC I'm done. 528 00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:31,960 It's a little bit efficient. Right. 529 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,080 I'm not talking about Bernie specifically because I agree. 530 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:38,120 Bernie is that sort of old school, sort of like union. 531 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,640 But look, we can't constrain people from laying off people. 532 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,080 If you're going to have an efficient economy and compete 533 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,000 with China, like that is our big bugaboo. 534 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:55,600 We have to compete with China globally, so we don't want to 535 00:33:55,600 --> 00:34:00,160 constrain capitalistic efficiency, OK? 536 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:05,280 What we want to do is say all taxes, whether you earn it on 537 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:11,600 capital or income, have the same rate of return and we will cut 538 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:16,239 more so the tax breaks out. If we just did that, we'd have, 539 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,080 my estimate, $400 billion a year. 540 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:22,480 Don't your fellow venture capitalists want to murder you 541 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:23,840 over this? This is like the number one 542 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,639 thing the National Venture Capital Association has to 543 00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:28,040 fight. It's like keep carried. 544 00:34:29,639 --> 00:34:33,840 Funny fact, we should go back to that topic because it's a very 545 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,679 important topic. But I've never been a member of 546 00:34:37,679 --> 00:34:41,679 the NVCA and I've they made multiple attempts to get me to 547 00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:46,400 be a member of the NVCA. And I've said for 20 years, if 548 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,280 you will not advocate for carried interests getting 549 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,320 special treatment, then I'll join the NVCA. 550 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,800 If you're at, if your principal job is to advocate for carried 551 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,920 interests getting special treatment, I'm not joining the 552 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,560 NVCA. I'm not a member. 553 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,920 You're probably the only major firm that's not a member of the 554 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,560 NVCA. I've had that principal for 20 555 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,200 some years. Amazing. 556 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:11,040 I didn't know. That yeah. 557 00:35:11,240 --> 00:35:15,280 So very few people know that because these principles matter, 558 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:22,760 right? So going back to this issue, if 559 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:28,080 we equalize capital gains and and ordinary income because AI 560 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:34,520 is favoring capital over labour, then we have 400 billion a year 561 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:41,880 or so to take care of people who are displaced by AI, to allow 562 00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:47,440 people to be displaced, which I think is what capitalist 563 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,320 efficiency is about. You need to take care of them. 564 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,920 And you know, COVID cost us about 250 billion a year when 565 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,800 there was mass unemployment, that was roughly the bill for 566 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,640 annual additional bill for COVID unemployment. 567 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,760 It's something like that. It will happen gradually over 568 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,120 the next 10 years. It's not happening suddenly. 569 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:15,560 And so between equalizing taxes, I'm saying we have reverse 570 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:20,440 taxation against, you know. I, I agree, I think many people 571 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,560 listening to this, I think it's a great point and I get. 572 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:27,600 Why should one get which is being favoured by AI get special 573 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:31,320 treatment? Look, MLPS are worth 30-40 574 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,800 billion a year. Step up bases in estate, that 575 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:40,240 planning, and all this worth 30-40 billion a year without 576 00:36:40,240 --> 00:36:43,800 even getting to any inheritance tax issues. 577 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:48,240 There's all these tricks, a dozen of them, worth 30 to 40 578 00:36:48,240 --> 00:36:51,680 billion a year MLPS. What is MLP? 579 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:57,200 Master limited partnerships, so oil and gas or housing and like 580 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,120 there's all these things that have been engineered through 581 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:04,640 political influence to favor people, but has nothing to do 582 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,720 with capitalism. They have nothing to do with 583 00:37:06,720 --> 00:37:09,360 capitalism. They're SPECIAL perks engineered 584 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,400 in because I could afford to make a controversy. 585 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,400 Republicans are never going to fix this issue, right? 586 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,040 Your only hope of fixing this issue is aligning with 587 00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:17,400 Democrats. Do you agree with that? 588 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,320 I think it's an independent who takes a new view I I want. 589 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,960 The United States to set up, you know. 590 00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:24,960 So, by the way, I've never been a Democrat. 591 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:26,800 I know, I know, I know. I'm an independent. 592 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,320 Free marketer who became more sort of because of environmental 593 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,120 policy that that moved you a little. 594 00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,920 Bit I was a Republican most of my life because I thought fiscal 595 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,840 was the most important. Then I added climate to this and 596 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:46,840 the early Republicans or both the Bushes were pre climate 597 00:37:47,240 --> 00:37:50,200 action. It's a long term risk, just like 598 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,320 Homeland Security is a risk. We should spend a certain amount 599 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,680 on risk insurance, whether it's for climate or Homeland Security 600 00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,480 or National Defence. That's my view. 601 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,040 But that's not where the Republicans ended up. 602 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,600 So I became an independent. But back to this issue. 603 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:12,800 If we could do equalized taxes, get rid of special breaks, we'd 604 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:16,840 have 400 billion a year. Add to that a token tax 605 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:23,080 intelligence, which is what AI is, you get to a trillion 606 00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:28,400 dollars a year that you can use to support the people who would 607 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,280 be displaced. So instead of slowing down the 608 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:35,240 economy and saying stopping displacement, let's let the 609 00:38:35,240 --> 00:38:38,560 economy be efficient, but let's find other ways to take care of 610 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,880 them and encourage things like micro entrepreneurship. 611 00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,520 Do you think open AI is going to align with this? 612 00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,040 I mean, they put out with Chris Lehane a policy paper. 613 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,240 It was pretty progressive, but then they're also supporting, 614 00:38:50,240 --> 00:38:53,840 they're supporting some, you know, I don't know, anti 615 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,920 Democratic, you know, effort. So I'm sort of confused where 616 00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,000 they're actually going to spend their. 617 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:02,400 Energy I would guess, and hopefully they'll call me. 618 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:07,320 Sam would support token taxes? I've asked him I suspect Daria 619 00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:11,560 would support token taxes on intelligence because they both 620 00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:17,040 see the impact it can have and good impact, as well as ways to 621 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,840 reduce the negative impact of AI. 622 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,520 He's a subtext of what you're saying for the listener is that 623 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,120 we're going to have a new class divide problem, which is 624 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:28,640 intelligence is going to be something you can easily buy and 625 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,480 that reinforces the power of capital even more because you 626 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,040 can spend money and get intelligence and that further 627 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,800 advantages people. Without with this, I suspect in 628 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:42,080 this world a farm worker gets paid the same as an oncologist 629 00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,960 because they're both up skilled to the level of the AI. 630 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:49,040 So it's it's the capital, it's the money holders that are at 631 00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,040 the biggest advantage. It's probably by 2050 we have 632 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,640 the greatest opportunity we've ever had to have equality. 633 00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,000 What happens to a few percent of the population? 634 00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:00,840 Who? Owned AI. 635 00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,840 One of the great human problems is, you know, who gets to live 636 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,880 on Central Park or whatever, You know, I, I don't know if we saw 637 00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,640 we just because we have abundance, we do we care more 638 00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,560 about abundance or do we care about relative status? 639 00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:17,880 I do think in a world of great economic efficiency and AI based 640 00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:23,000 abundance, we start to pay more attention to equality, which we 641 00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:29,920 have not done under capitalism, and say we'll sacrifice some 642 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:34,320 minor level of efficiency to get much more equality in society 643 00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,360 and society. I suspect we'll be happier. 644 00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:42,200 More equal societies are happy both in the rich people and the 645 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,080 not so rich people. I want to change gears slightly. 646 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,160 I mean, one, and it's sort of already come up, but one of the 647 00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,920 things you want to animate, animate the United States right 648 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,720 now is sort of a rivalry with China. 649 00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,520 And part of what you're using to justify that is the sense that 650 00:40:56,760 --> 00:41:00,080 America is a great democracy. We should protect democracy. 651 00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,800 China, you know, is a totalitarian regime. 652 00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,720 You know, I agree. But it feels like the American 653 00:41:05,720 --> 00:41:08,200 democracy is under a threat right now. 654 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:12,080 Like what is your sense of how you know, Trump is literally 655 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:13,600 joking? And I know you're anti Trump, 656 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,960 but Trump is literally joking. Joking, you know, that he'll be 657 00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,400 president in six to eight years. Still, like what? 658 00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:21,880 What do you? What is your view on how secure 659 00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,960 American democracy is today? Look, there's a great book on 660 00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,880 this I'm trying to remember by Russ. 661 00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,800 I think it's Russ. Feingold was the senator. 662 00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:33,320 That is the senator. I'm not sure what you're 663 00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,040 talking. About he wrote a book on 664 00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,520 democracy in peril or something like that. 665 00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:44,720 I buy his thesis that we are. We are not as safe in democracy 666 00:41:44,720 --> 00:41:49,160 as we'd like to be. Institutions are no longer safe. 667 00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:54,680 We have the era of individual individuals like Trump. 668 00:41:56,520 --> 00:42:01,840 So I don't think we are safe. I don't think Western philosophy 669 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:06,520 is safe and Western values are safe, and we have to fight for 670 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,360 that. And that's why I think winning 671 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:13,640 against China is so key. What political philosophy the 672 00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:18,600 world adopts will depend on who wins the economic race, and that 673 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,680 will depend on who wins the AI race entirely. 674 00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,560 So that's why it's so critical to win the AI race. 675 00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,480 Why? Why it's important we win the 676 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:32,640 economic race and bring benefits to the rest of the world with 677 00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,200 our. You see a distinction between 678 00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,840 Western values and Western democratic values. 679 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,240 Are you drawing a distinction? There. 680 00:42:40,240 --> 00:42:43,800 Not really. I mean you can get endless. 681 00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:48,080 Right. Are you still largely like 682 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,720 you're pretty opposed to open source a couple years ago? 683 00:42:50,720 --> 00:42:53,840 Is that still true? I'm not opposed to open source, 684 00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:58,120 so remember I was at Sun when we started the open source 685 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,440 movement. But AI open source. 686 00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,040 NFS was the first open source product. 687 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:07,760 I feel like Son was responsible for making open source happen 688 00:43:08,720 --> 00:43:16,440 and starting with the files, NFS file system and then open source 689 00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:21,000 operating systems and all that. And I was a huge investor in 690 00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:24,680 GitLab and it was four people. It's open source and. 691 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,600 But today, are you comfortable with your portfolio companies 692 00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,560 using Kimi and Deep Sea Kimi? I'm not. 693 00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,040 OK. So I'm not because I think 694 00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:35,560 China, we are too open to subversion. 695 00:43:36,240 --> 00:43:41,240 And when we open source, and I had this debate with some of the 696 00:43:41,240 --> 00:43:46,320 executives at Facebook when they were open sourcing llama, they 697 00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,840 were feeding technology to the Chinese and it has helped them 698 00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,560 catch up. Now China's smart population, 699 00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,760 they'll catch up anyway. But we shouldn't be helping them 700 00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:59,880 catch up. And we should stay at least a 701 00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:03,440 year's breath ahead of them because I think our fundamental 702 00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:07,320 system is superior and we have the talent. 703 00:44:07,720 --> 00:44:11,960 Now they have the talent too. But many more of the most 704 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,480 brilliant minds on the planet want to move to the US or did 705 00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:20,080 before Trump instead of moving to China. 706 00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:24,920 And so I think that was one of our strongest assets in staying 707 00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,560 ahead. And Trump has killed that, to be 708 00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:28,560 honest. It's. 709 00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:30,600 Terrible. I mean getting Chinese 710 00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:33,320 administrators. Ever done to this country long 711 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:37,240 term is making it less attractive for the best talent 712 00:44:37,240 --> 00:44:39,560 in the world to come to this country and keep us ahead. 713 00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,240 And it's insane that Elon is one of his biggest if not biggest 714 00:44:42,240 --> 00:44:45,920 funders and Elon's companies are full of immigrant founders and 715 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,120 is highly dependent and he's an immigrant himself. 716 00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:52,320 There's hardly a successful company in Silicon Valley that 717 00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:59,600 doesn't have immigrant founders and in some key role in the top 718 00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,080 management. And it's one of the things that 719 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,200 makes, you know, America great in my view. 720 00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,920 I mean, I like if I'm really pressed on, like, you know, I 721 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,680 asked you who the heroes are. I mean, some of the people I 722 00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,920 think about are like, you know, Sundar Alphabet and like Satya 723 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:16,320 Nadella, Microsoft, who have been great stewards of important 724 00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,880 companies that it feels like through a terrible culture 725 00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,040 shift, you know, are real stewards of institutions that 726 00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,840 provide no. Great value, done a great job 727 00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:30,560 and immigrant founders have had immigrants have had a huge role 728 00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:34,760 in the knowledge economy. In fact, immigrant doctors, we 729 00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:38,080 have a huge shortage if you didn't have immigrant doctors. 730 00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,640 So no matter where you look, do you? 731 00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,440 Try to talk to Elon about you. Talk to him occasionally or not. 732 00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:45,680 Much. Not a whole lot now. 733 00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,640 He used to be like, oh, I have this space company or you're, 734 00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,280 you're on the outs at this point. 735 00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:57,280 Look, I'm not afraid to call him when it needs to be called. 736 00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,560 Look, the nice thing is I can't be fired. 737 00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:04,200 So I don't worry about, I never worried about a career because 738 00:46:04,240 --> 00:46:09,280 it's just done fine for me. I've never create feared about 739 00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:14,240 the things other things fear, which is somehow but. 740 00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:16,360 You don't. I don't imagine you want to be 741 00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:20,760 on his list of Twitter people. He just like spices randomly or 742 00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,840 like you've avoided the mass public sort of Republican 743 00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,360 animals. Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm probably 744 00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,520 avoided that. But you know, look, I admire 745 00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,720 Elan for what he's done. Well, as an entrepreneur, he's 746 00:46:32,720 --> 00:46:35,600 done a great job. We wouldn't have electric cars. 747 00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:37,680 We had we left it to General Motors. 748 00:46:38,240 --> 00:46:40,880 We wouldn't have had space launches, though. 749 00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:45,000 I'd say Rocket Lab or one of our company deserves as much credit 750 00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:50,080 if it wasn't for Elon and we had relied on Boeing or Airbus or 751 00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,800 somebody else to do. This is a business question, but 752 00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,960 do you think the SpaceX IPO is going to take down the whole 753 00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,720 whole mania happening right now? I know it just the expected, you 754 00:47:00,720 --> 00:47:03,000 know multiple on revenue is like ludicrous. 755 00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:06,040 I don't care about Wall Street. I don't care about prices. 756 00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,840 I don't. The reason I don't care is 757 00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,600 people think that's reality. It's not reality. 758 00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:17,040 When people talk about a bubble, I say a bubble in whatwasthe.com 759 00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:21,760 thing A bubble? Not if you look at real usage of 760 00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:25,800 the Internet. Look at Internet traffic and 761 00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,600 tell me where. You know, yeah, they just 762 00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:31,680 overpriced where I was. Going to go whether investors 763 00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,240 bounce between fear and greed and that causes change in 764 00:47:35,240 --> 00:47:39,120 valuation, that's not reality. It would kill a bunch of good 765 00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,280 companies probably. If you know the bubble popped, 766 00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:45,880 you know it's just brutal it. Just you can do nothing about 767 00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:50,680 investor bouncing between fear and greed, which is what comes 768 00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:56,160 causes bubbles and busts. So I don't worry much about Wall 769 00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,200 Street. I don't trade almost ever. 770 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:05,200 I just do my thing with companies and frankly, I don't. 771 00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:08,720 I've never in 40 years said I'm in the investing business. 772 00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:14,120 I've never called myself. What's fun is helping 773 00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:18,600 entrepreneurs build companies and helping them with mistakes 774 00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,000 you've already made. I made more mistakes than 775 00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,640 anybody on the planet when it comes to building companies 776 00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:27,080 because I've been doing it for a long time and I hope I can help 777 00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:28,840 entrepreneurs avoid some of those. 778 00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,800 That's my job and that's how I define what I do. 779 00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:34,880 And it's a lot of fun. We're we're. 780 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,760 Recording this obviously as Sam Altman and Elon Musk are 781 00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:42,200 fighting in court right now. You you are the earliest venture 782 00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:47,560 investor in open AI. The the read read often was in 783 00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:50,160 the round, but as an individual right or you guys who got the 784 00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:51,440 bigger sure. That's right. 785 00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,960 Yeah. What is I there was a viral 786 00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:59,000 tweet that you sort of knocked down about the returns you've 787 00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:02,120 seen on Open AI. Will you say anything about how 788 00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,560 well you've done? I think the the the worry is 789 00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,440 that it's been just so dilutive that what should have been sort 790 00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,200 of an all timer has gotten diluted. 791 00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:14,720 It's a fabulous return. I won't go into specifics, but 792 00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,520 it's been a fabulous return by any metric. 793 00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:19,920 Have you sold some along the way or? 794 00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:24,680 Very tiny amount a long time ago, most most of it internal 795 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,680 between our funds. So you know, do you think? 796 00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,840 It will be 1 of the all time great investments. 797 00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:37,560 I think so now my all time great investment was Juniper Networks 798 00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:42,680 where we got 2500 times our money on a $3,000,000 investment 799 00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:47,120 in a world where the largest funds were two or $300 million. 800 00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:50,440 Not happening. It was sort of a fabulous 801 00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:51,720 return. Why? 802 00:49:51,720 --> 00:49:55,920 Because we bet on TCPIB being the core of the Internet when 803 00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,920 everybody else was betting on another technology called ATM. 804 00:50:00,240 --> 00:50:04,600 Because the telcos were thinking ATM and Cisco was thinking ATM 805 00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:10,400 Cisco CTO told me they would never do a TCPIP router above OC 806 00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,120 12, which is less than my home service today. 807 00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:18,480 So we just built Juniper to be TCPIP for the public Internet. 808 00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,880 So that's the best, but obviously you'll make far more 809 00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,840 money off the volume of open net, but the level of return 810 00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:26,640 won't be the same. I hope it's 2500 X. 811 00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,640 It could be. What what do you make of this 812 00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,720 idea Like that you know they stole a non profit or obviously 813 00:50:32,720 --> 00:50:35,040 you were investing when it was becoming a non profit. 814 00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:40,080 You know Sam went outside because Elon failed to fulfill 815 00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:44,840 his commitment to fund the company last minute. 816 00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:49,080 There was no real source of funding so Sam had to go looking 817 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:55,040 and perfectly reasonable for a non profit to have a for profit 818 00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,520 subsidiary. Look no, no desk is set up in 819 00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:02,440 many European companies. IKEA is set up that way where a 820 00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:07,920 non profit owns a for profit in has profit for profit 821 00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,280 shareholders. It's just not the first time 822 00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,680 it's been done. In fact the best companies in 823 00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:20,600 Europe have the structure of a for profit subsidiary with for 824 00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:25,160 profit investors, but the majority is still owned by a non 825 00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,560 profit. It depends on the how much money 826 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,680 they've raised, how fast they've expanded. 827 00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:32,360 It's been a pretty fabulous story. 828 00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,080 I mean. Like what is the alternative? 829 00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:36,480 Right, I'm sympathetic to the idea. 830 00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:38,800 To build this AI company, you needed the money. 831 00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,160 The only way to get money on that scale is from people trying 832 00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,000 to make a profit. Therefore, you needed to be a 833 00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,080 for profit if you believe in the mission of delivering a. 834 00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,600 Formation is a key function of capitalism. 835 00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:54,200 That wasn't possible. Look, Elon is just jealous. 836 00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:58,800 It's nothing but jealousy that. It's amazing how much he's just 837 00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,240 like, desperate to be in control. 838 00:52:00,240 --> 00:52:03,480 I mean, you know he. Wanted to be in control, he 839 00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,680 wanted to own. There's lots of things I won't 840 00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:09,560 go into. He didn't have the best 841 00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,240 intentions. He definitely didn't have non 842 00:52:12,240 --> 00:52:16,520 profit intentions. He doesn't even care about 843 00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:18,520 climate. It worked out well for him at 844 00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:20,520 Tesla. That wasn't his pitch 845 00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:22,360 originally. Should we still worry about 846 00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:23,960 climate? Nobody talks about it anymore. 847 00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:27,640 We absolutely need to worry. Just because Trump had made it 848 00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:32,240 bad bad to talk about climate doesn't mean it's the problem 849 00:52:32,240 --> 00:52:35,120 has gone away. We've just buried our head in 850 00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:37,360 the sand. We are continuing to invest in 851 00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:42,880 climate as now our view is climate technologies have to be 852 00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,040 competitive. We have the best steel company 853 00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:49,040 or beat a coal plant based steel plant any day. 854 00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:56,280 I can build a build a beat a coal based cement plant any day. 855 00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,960 So these fundamental technologies have to be cost 856 00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,280 comparative. You can't defy the laws of 857 00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:04,520 economic gravity. Our climate philosophy is more 858 00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:08,880 about new technologies that are cost competitive with their 859 00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,360 fossil competitors. Fusion will be that way. 860 00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:16,040 We did fusion cement steel. Pro energy you need, you need 861 00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,280 energy. It's not about sort of being, I 862 00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:20,960 don't know, like monks. So this is another place, you 863 00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:25,320 know, people efficiency legislation, consume less. 864 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,000 That's the wrong way to approach climate. 865 00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:33,160 Make it cleaner and cheaper with sustainable technologies. 866 00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:35,320 That's the right way. That's what fusion will do. 867 00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:37,360 That's what super hot geothermal will do. 868 00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:41,040 We working both those areas, in fact have the dominant companies 869 00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:44,480 in both those areas the most cost effective company. 870 00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:47,640 Same with cement. Our cement is cheaper than 871 00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,360 regular cement. Our steel is cheaper. 872 00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,800 Now we have to build large plants to get to those cost 873 00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:58,560 points, and capital is hard to get in some of these areas in 874 00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:02,960 the Trump climate area. But most people would agree with 875 00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:07,440 me that that's the way to scale sustainability, not by saying 876 00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:11,520 it's OK to pay twice as much. Are you cheering for Anthropic? 877 00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,240 I cheer for all AI including entropic. 878 00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:18,840 What do you make of, you know, I feel like the Trump 879 00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,800 administration in places has made me more of a libertarian. 880 00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,000 Like, you know, I, I guess during Biden, I would have been 881 00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,000 a little bit more comfortable with the Biden administration 882 00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:30,240 regulating in some at least wanting to be alerted to what's 883 00:54:30,240 --> 00:54:32,880 happening with different models. Now the Trump administration. 884 00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:39,360 Nuanced matters here. We can't have private values 885 00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:42,640 determine what our national policies on National Defence 886 00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,680 are. We can. 887 00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,880 In fact, everybody in government, no matter who they 888 00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,800 are, are required to abide by the law. 889 00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,160 They don't always, but they're required to abide by the law. 890 00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:59,000 So if a government agency is abiding by the law. 891 00:54:59,720 --> 00:55:01,440 But it's the Trump administration, an 892 00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:04,560 administration that has no history of abiding by the law. 893 00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,160 The the version of abiding by the law is what we can get away 894 00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:08,760 with until, you know, they arrest us. 895 00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:11,880 In 20 years, I agree with that. My fundamental problem with the 896 00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,800 Trump administration is lack of values. 897 00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,640 So why? Saying let's just defer to 898 00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:20,760 democracy is sort of laughable. Democracy includes first number 899 00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,240 one. The main branch is supposed to 900 00:55:22,240 --> 00:55:25,240 be Congress, which has done nothing to react to AI. 901 00:55:25,240 --> 00:55:28,000 So to say, defer to democracy. Well, our our main. 902 00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:29,800 Branch Let's look at the principle. 903 00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:34,760 A private company can choose to sell or not sell. 904 00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:38,080 That's always been true. But that's what Anthropic was 905 00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,200 saying we want we'll just walk away. 906 00:55:40,240 --> 00:55:42,360 The the issue was that it was a new contract. 907 00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:47,320 My tweet was I admire Dario for his principle. 908 00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,200 I happen to believe that particular principle was wrong 909 00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:54,080 in trying to constrain the Defense Department. 910 00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:58,080 I think building a constitution in the claw, teaching AI to have 911 00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:00,320 values, I mean to go back to sort of technology as a 912 00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,680 religion, like one of the commendable things they're doing 913 00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:05,520 is being thoughtful and intentional about the technology 914 00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:08,360 they're building. And in a free market society, 915 00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,320 they are one company that is allowed to build it in their 916 00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:11,400 way. I think they're doing in a very 917 00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:13,360 admirable way. And I don't think we should 918 00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,560 encourage the federal government to bully them into doing what 919 00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:17,720 they. Want I think the federal 920 00:56:17,720 --> 00:56:22,680 government, the Department of Defense or Department of War, 921 00:56:22,720 --> 00:56:26,000 whatever it's called now has 1 objective. 922 00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,080 Not set by Congress. So I think the Department of 923 00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:30,680 Defence is still, by the way, God. 924 00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,920 Not lose to Putin or be subject to Putin. 925 00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:41,720 If Putin walks into China, she walks into Taiwan. 926 00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:47,160 They need to be able to defend US and and the western world 927 00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:53,040 against that. OK, I think that discussion 928 00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:56,760 shouldn't lie with a private company, but they should have 929 00:56:56,760 --> 00:57:00,680 the ability to not sell their technology to the Defence 930 00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:04,000 Department or Department of War. Well, that's that's effectively 931 00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:05,200 what they're doing. They're saying we're not going 932 00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:06,320 to sell it. Unless you agree to this 933 00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,080 contract. That's why I admire Dario for 934 00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:10,640 sticking with his principles. Right. 935 00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:12,840 But then you sort of bought into this idea that if you're 936 00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:15,400 following the law, if as long as they agree to follow the law, 937 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,640 that's sufficient. But you agree with the idea that 938 00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:20,240 they're not a set of people that are can be trusted to follow the 939 00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,360 law. That I I agreed. 940 00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:25,160 That's true. I hope it's very temporary. 941 00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:29,680 Hopefully another two years and we are done with this problem of 942 00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:33,560 defying the law and we recur. We go back to democracy. 943 00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:38,080 Like corruption matters, right? I mean, as a business person, 944 00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:42,280 what do you make of sort of just the, I don't know, rewarding, I 945 00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:45,760 mean the crypto? Is huge. 946 00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:48,200 Does anybody know what happened to TikTok? 947 00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:54,280 Senator Cantwell was on the committee that decided to ban 948 00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:58,120 TikTok or not. I talked to her multiple times 949 00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:00,400 to convince her TikTok should be banned. 950 00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:05,480 She was against it and then came around to believing it should be 951 00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:08,120 banned. There's a couple of Democratic 952 00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:13,200 senators who were key to that, but now it's disappeared into 953 00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:16,080 the abyss. Nobody knows who made what and 954 00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:18,360 who owns it, who's in charge. Fascinating. 955 00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:19,600 I haven't even really. You're right. 956 00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:21,240 Nobody knows. There's. 957 00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,000 So many things it's hard to keep track of. 958 00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:28,480 That Santa on the committee waiting for the ban had no idea. 959 00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:31,680 She asked me recently, do I know what happened to it? 960 00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,200 I have no idea. She has no idea. 961 00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:36,360 I maybe I shouldn't have an idea. 962 00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,960 She should. There's no. 963 00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:42,880 Accountability left. Corruption is just rampant. 964 00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:46,200 Are there any politicians that you're optimistic about, whether 965 00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:49,560 it's the California governor primary, Democratic primary 966 00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:53,320 coming up, independent, any, any politician of any stripe that 967 00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:55,480 you're like, oh, I have some optimism about them? 968 00:58:57,480 --> 00:58:59,880 Let me not name names. Oh, come on. 969 00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:06,320 Look, in the California primary, I'm supporting Matt Mahan over 970 00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:08,200 any of the other candidates. I like him. 971 00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:10,600 I had him on this podcast. Nobody watched it. 972 00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,040 You need to be a little bit like dynamic. 973 00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:15,520 I mean, I like him. I was set up. 974 00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:21,040 The problem the problem with mainstream media, but it's the. 975 00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:22,800 Public. It's the public like. 976 00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:27,000 Yes, right. Why did Trump get away with 977 00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:30,120 saying immigrant Haitian immigrants are eating your pets? 978 00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:35,880 Not that he believed it, not only not that maybe the people 979 00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:40,480 in Ohio believed it. It just it enforced the idea are 980 00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:43,280 immigrants are bad, which was his campaign pledge. 981 00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:48,800 So he's a great communicator in that sense, even if it sounds 982 00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:52,560 irrational to some of us that why would anybody believe that? 983 00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:55,800 How can a person be president who says that? 984 00:59:56,400 --> 01:00:02,320 I mean, but. Look, I hope we restore a sense 985 01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:09,760 of democracy and law abidedness in in in Washington. 986 01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:11,720 Yeah, I mean, I like, I like Matt Mahan. 987 01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,320 I think he's smart. I I think he's a little, he's in 988 01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:16,080 a weird position where he doesn't want to talk about Trump 989 01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:19,320 too much because he needs to somehow get Republicans. 990 01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:23,400 But I feel like that's a hard path to win and it seems seems 991 01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:25,080 unlikely. I mean, the, yeah, California 992 01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:27,040 governor's race. Do you think the billionaire 993 01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:30,560 tax, you've been less worried about that than some, right? 994 01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:36,520 I think it's really bad policy. I critique Rochana over it. 995 01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:41,360 I think he's taken less of a stance in favour of it since, 996 01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:47,480 but it's a really bad idea. We've in essence reduced our tax 997 01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:51,280 collections over 10 years by all this wealth leaving the state 998 01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:55,120 that would have happily paid ordinary income tax as they sold 999 01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:59,000 their stock. Wealth taxes have lots of 1000 01:00:59,000 --> 01:01:01,960 problems. I'm not against more taxes, but 1001 01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:04,760 wealth taxes have are a bad idea. 1002 01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:09,920 Net net reduced tax collection in California. 1003 01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:14,280 The last, last question I'll ask you, you know, you're, you're 1004 01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:16,640 investing in all these great startups like companies that 1005 01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:17,680 people haven't. Heard by the way. 1006 01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:21,040 I just want to say I chose to stay in California and I'll stay 1007 01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:24,960 in California despite the tax because my lifestyle is more 1008 01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:27,480 important than the 5% wealth tax might. 1009 01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:29,720 Well, the real issue is sort of the paper. 1010 01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:33,440 You know, it's like if if it turns out that control over 1011 01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:35,960 Google is like super is valued as. 1012 01:01:35,960 --> 01:01:37,360 Well, there's lots of other problems. 1013 01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:41,960 Even the goal of tax, tax collection, tax collections over 1014 01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:45,120 10 years will go down, not up. Because they're scaring people 1015 01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:46,760 away. Because they're scaring people 1016 01:01:46,760 --> 01:01:50,720 away and scaring away the people who created the wealth who 1017 01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:52,640 should be rewarded for that wealth. 1018 01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:54,960 But no. And nobody on the presidential 1019 01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,120 level that you're willing to say you're. 1020 01:01:57,200 --> 01:02:00,360 I think it's too early. Do you think you'll be a big 1021 01:02:00,360 --> 01:02:04,800 donor? If there's an independent 1022 01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:10,640 candidate for sure, I think right now to win in a Democratic 1023 01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:14,480 primary, it's not a position I'm likely to support. 1024 01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:18,160 To win in a Republican primary is not a position I'm likely to 1025 01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:21,560 support. Start-ups that people should be 1026 01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:25,120 paying attention to right now after so many I know. 1027 01:02:25,160 --> 01:02:30,360 After, well, there's we're not done with innovation in AI or 1028 01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:34,600 even approaches other than large language models. 1029 01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:38,720 I think there's lots to do that's innovative, not just 1030 01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:42,840 create another competitor to open the Iron Tropic. 1031 01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:49,760 I think that business is done, but are there more innovations 1032 01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:52,720 to be had? Absolutely. 1033 01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:56,760 Huge gains in efficiency. Everybody knows inferencing is 1034 01:02:56,760 --> 01:03:02,240 really inefficient. You're using the same GPUs to do 1035 01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:05,080 both inferencing and training based. 1036 01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:07,200 On Together Fireworks you have a bet or what? 1037 01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:11,920 What is your inferencing bet? My bet is so I won't talk about 1038 01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:14,320 specific investments. Coming down the. 1039 01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:20,240 Yeah, We have plenty of ways to make GP US much more efficient, 1040 01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:25,320 have alternatives to GP US, transform models that are 1041 01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:29,200 alternatives to GP US. We just announced SO1 1042 01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:33,480 announcement was Prism ML that reduced an 8 bit model to a one 1043 01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:35,640 bit model so it can run on a phone. 1044 01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:41,040 Like that's innovation, like a mathematically equivalent model 1045 01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:44,360 that can run on a phone that's fun. 1046 01:03:44,520 --> 01:03:46,360 There's other ways to do those things. 1047 01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:52,560 So lots of room for innovation around L alams, lots of room for 1048 01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:56,760 alternative to LLMS World models has a really, really interesting 1049 01:03:56,760 --> 01:04:00,120 area and lots of fun things happening and a lot of diversity 1050 01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:07,080 in approaches in in how world models and robotics are being 1051 01:04:07,080 --> 01:04:09,720 approached. Big area for innovation the next 1052 01:04:09,720 --> 01:04:15,400 five years outside of here. I've talked about some of the 1053 01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:20,640 climate areas for the first time in a really long time. 1054 01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:27,520 I'm bullish on quantum. I think I won't talk about it 1055 01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:30,760 yet. I've looked at a dozen quantum 1056 01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:35,400 start-ups over the last 10 years, most multiple times. 1057 01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:38,920 I've never had the confidence we'll get to quantum in any 1058 01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,840 reasonable time frame. I think we have finally have a 1059 01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:44,560 shot. Well, Vinod, 'cause we started 1060 01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:48,440 talking about religion, you're you know, we by 2040, you need 1061 01:04:48,440 --> 01:04:51,520 to help deliver us material abundance get make sure 1062 01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:54,720 Americans have the and everyone around the world has quality 1063 01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:56,480 healthcare. No, no pressure. 1064 01:04:56,480 --> 01:04:59,520 Excited to watch your start up investments and I'm sure we'll 1065 01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:01,520 have you back on the show soon. Thanks for coming on. 1066 01:05:01,800 --> 01:05:03,880 Thank you. Lots of exciting things to talk 1067 01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:04,840 about. I loved it. 1068 01:05:05,040 --> 01:05:05,720 All right. Thanks. 1069 01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:07,360 That's our show. Thanks for listening. 1070 01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:10,840 Please like, comment, subscribe. We're a new channel and we can 1071 01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:13,000 use all your support. Go watch some of the old videos. 1072 01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:16,920 You can follow along on the Sub Stack, newcomer.co. 1073 01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:21,160 Or if you've got endless time on your hands, go watch the Super 1074 01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:24,440 Bowl Valley show, my chat show with Max Child and James Wilson. 1075 01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:26,320 Thanks for watching. See you next week.