Welcome Sally. Hey everybody.
Welcome to Dead cat. It's Tom dote on here.
Hey everybody! Welcome to.
Let's write that you want you on my low voice intro.
I'm relaxed after a week off. So that's that's my unstressed
voice. Its naturally higher, it's a
chill, it's a chill Alto. I have no grounds to criticize
Tom's podcast voice given. I'm like, yeah, I'm saying,
like, and sort of every other 10 seconds, I do my best.
I don't think, I don't see many things, I just say it on a,
maybe more soothing tone of you, and I don't voice too.
Yeah, there are Millennial vocal fry but anyway, I am back after
a week off Kitty and Eric had another episode in which they
talked about things that I really should have been
participating in but I wasn't there.
It's the most frustrating episodes for me.
I don't mind. Being on the show but at least
talk about things. I don't give a shit about, I
give you credit, you know, literal stories, I've written
the murder most successful story I've ever had, by the way, in
terms of readership and it was very interesting to see how it
played out because the story came out, this was a story I
wrote in 2015 or 16 or something and it was about a murder that
happened in Arkansas and the police subpoenaed an Amazon Echo
to see if there was any evidence on there to prove that the guy,
you know, murdered the person in his hot tub.
So The story came out like Christmas the day after
Christmas and every news Outlet picked up on it and every TV
show picked up on, like Morning News show picked up that's real
power, but none of them gave him the Today Show or something.
So I came at it, that's, that's it each and they hold out there.
You know, like oh here is, you know, Carolyn our Tech reporter
and it's like this bucket like seven year old woman and she's
got like an echo next to her and she's like talking about like
that's her prop to explain this thing zero credit given.
That's okay, it's fine. I did, I did, I did do some
radio. Is actually a hilariously
enough. One of the radio interviews I
did about the story. I had set an alarm on my echo
for unrelated reasons, and it went off in the middle of the
interview and it sounded like use like snooping on me.
Yeah that works. Well yeah.
Anyway anyway, we're not going to rehash all that.
Yeah but good episode. I recommend everyone listen to
this. Listen we're cross promoting our
own episodes, it's like go back to the pack.
Have some people, there's some good stuff in there, you know?
We probably tuned out when they saw it wasn't in the episode.
They're Like oh Humphrey one. You know how it goes sometimes.
Anyway, I missed out on a lot. I feel like while I was gone,
the new cycle was insane. I think it really specially
insane, this last week in financial world, if you'll so
slow the markets up, the markets up, but the story is still that.
It's the end of the world. So how do you write that?
Like I'm like stuck. It's up like 15%.
Yeah, I guess that in a much shorter than Mark anyway.
Sorry, I know you think about broader societal things but I
just wanted to complain. How do you write the story of
the downturn during? I mean I think it's a dead cat
bounce. But like that's that's basically
why I said I my most recent news letter that the stock market
rebounds, you know, on the way down, but it's very hard for
narrative purposes because everybody gets excited.
When I say the new cycle was insane.
I probably would just reacting to like surprising earnings from
a couple of companies that I pay attention to and then the Trump
shit, and then, you know, the Trump FBI stuff.
The thing that was crossing, crossing my mind while I was on
vacation, which also, by the way, I told you guys where we
can from the episode was like an ongoing jokes pretending.
This was like is it a secret? Or it was a social media secret,
that's what you're getting to. Yeah, it's so easy to media
media secret. They only gave they gave a
guidance about social media. Was there a guy dressed about
your podcast? Is that count as social that
we've been very specific to me? They were very, very general.
I went to my brother's wedding, I can say that and we were in a
destination. Well, I'll just say and then
seven can bleep it out which would be funny, but I was in a
Then and we should, we redact, we redact serious information at
this anyway, so I was there and there was a social media
blackout on my brother's wedding, but if your first was,
my wife is. But a mere Schools teacher, no
sir, right? But it was for personal reasons,
but it did sort of make me think, as I was in this
beautiful location, you know, gotta do something like the
brain turns towards. How could I leverage the
location? That I'm at.
And I was like, well I guess I can post it be real.
That one seems acceptable in most situations you so just you
think be real, doesn't count as social media in this context
because it's a smaller Circle. I yeah, I think for the specific
reasons that I needed to have a social media blackout, be real,
would not have violated any of those concerns and so and
because I felt like I needed to do it.
So then I decided post to be real, then I was like, look, I'm
sitting down You know, on the beach looking at palm trees and
like a did you post has blue lagoon?
I did eventually. Yeah, it's a might be real from
a couple of nights ago. You don't even I don't think of
you as a social media person that would have like, such
withdrawals that you would feel the need to find some Outlet.
It's just a thing that your mind wanders, too, when you're bored,
right? I mean, at some points, you're
just like, well, I'm not reading right now and I'm not on
Twitter. So what else do I do?
And I'm like, oh, I guess I could.
Create content it's not working posted like literally every meal
that I ate in Italy to my stories while I was there
Instagram. Yeah.
Yeah right. So and I'm off Instagram.
I am on Tick-Tock Again by the way I have downloaded techshop.
We can talk about that too. I have I have lots of thoughts
about Tick-Tock but anyway so I posted it.
I was going to post to be real and I was like no this is too
nice for be real because it seems to me the point of this
app is to expose the Danity of your life it's because it's
supposed to be in the moment. You don't want it to look good A
lot of it is just like oh, it's me in an Uber with me from
people who don't have be real, you know, it's sort of at a
certain time of day. They say take a picture
immediately and you take it sort of forward and backwards.
So you get sort of where you're sitting and what you're looking
at Short of very real. There's been a lot of hysterical
reporting recently this worried that people are posting
corporate secrets to their be real because they're just
sitting in front of their work. A computer when this happens and
they they put their McKinsey slides or whatever out there for
I mean that probably has happened right, you know scary
stories about yeah, I mean, yeah, but yeah people have
decided that it is the app does your and I saw the information
or some Outlet had growth rate figures or her I wrote about
this company before anyone was paying I've scooped the seed and
series a round of this company. Anyway, who's our best friend
that's like a tick for me. My tick is like bringing out my
scoop that was clear in the Emil interview to it was We're
talking about these huge stakes and I'm like, scoop that was a
scoop of mine. I believe.
Anyway sorry that's that's not unique to you though.
That's a that's a specific order.
It's a rewarder problem, it's disease but it's good.
I mean that's you know, it's our, I don't know it's part of
what we're solid anyway. What were you asking me?
So be real people. Its growth is big now and it's
valued at like, what is it 600 million or something?
It's like a large purse. Anyway, I decided not to post it
because I felt like it was a violation of the spirit of the
Which is things needle. Look boring, right?
The point of it is to show people that there is, you know,
between the highlights on Instagram or whatever the fuck,
you know, really. You're not doing anything
interesting and you're living meaning of life, I was watching
a tick, tock the other day about be real, which really speaks to
sort of the media environment, where in, but I think you told
me about that and that maybe feeds into what I've been
thinking about since then, which is that the next social media
Trend piece, like the a head from The Wall Street Journal is
going to be That Sensation that I felt, which is that.
Oh, my life is too interesting for be real.
I shouldn't post it there, but that is also the app of the day
that you need to be posting on and so people influencers, which
have spent the last five or so years, you know, glowing up
their lives to make it interesting to people in a like
celebrity standpoint are now going to have to dumb it down
and like dull it so that they can fit, you know, the
expectations of be real. And I think there are going to
be like reality, Since right on unfollow all the hot people, you
know. Like if you're single and
dating, you can't have all these people.
You're trying to woo because all of a sudden it's going to
corrupt your be real. That was sort of that was The
Tick Tock version of what you're saying.
But yeah, that whether it's building a following or whether
it's sort of caring too much about who's following you and
trying to sell yourself to them, it's sort of ruins.
You know. It's not the days when it was
just be real seed investors you know.
Now it's you have to care what Think o, but The Tick-Tock was
trying to say like you will make your be reels better if you
spend less time paying attention to celebrities, we're know just
like if there are people like, if there are boys that you want
to be pursuing you then it's going to cause you to like
really care about your be real presentation.
Is there going to be consuming them and sort of just like I
mean just you know depending on the audience whatever what the
pendulum is going to switch. This happens during recessions.
I find. Right, like, displays of immense
wealth or out of fashion, and I remember, like, after 2008.
There were all these stories about how, like, all these
Bankers didn't want to, like, wear expensive watches or have
nice suits because everyone was mad at the finance industry for
fucking everything up. But also, like still being rich,
while people were being evicted from their homes and I think if
we do enter a recession, people are going to call it, you know,
you know, Instagram fabulous lives are out and be real.
You know, media ality is in and that but yeah we've already got
like this shitty selfie and you know, yeah I think that I think
that's the trend right now, right?
But the thing is that influencers you know they exist
solely on top of these social media platforms as their
business and so they're going to have to adapt for be real and
they can't be what they have done in the last couple of
years. Again, gonna be real, I can't,
well, literally they cannot write.
I mean, I don't think, you know, given Google that was hysterical
thing with the with the cardassians were there.
Like Instagram is supposed to be for your friends, you know.
And we are yeah, like, what friend?
Yeah, do it. This will this will happen.
Mark my words I probably I should just write this story.
I'm moving to a new beat which would allow for these kinds of
pieces but someone's going to do it.
And this is what we're going to be living in to the next, but
you need a word. If you like chuji, okay, Woody
Allen consultant the word for for what I'm just saying the
best friend. Stories have a clear word, the
vibe shift. Yeah, I feel like people have,
you know, used abused that phrase like ever since it came
out. Everything is like part of the
vibe shift even though nobody knows what we're shifting to.
Yeah. That definitely ran.
Its course, The Vibes I mean Vibe is a concept was funny to
me at first generally is like it's inexplicable and it
describes people who are just sort of out of touch but seem to
be having a good time. But the vibes Shift.
And they was like that. Famous, New York Magazine story
that like pushed it, and everyone was so excited about
that record came from. I think that was the vibe shift,
five shift came from there, but everyone loved it and I never
liked it was supposed to be this, like, agreed-upon Concepts
that everyone is like, oh yeah, no one can describe what we know
it's something and that's really funny.
I'm like, yeah, but fine, but that's not a great piece than if
no one it does. Right grab anything.
That's why it's been so abused because everywhere I can use it
for anything. And, and now it's to the point
where, you know, Like old editors just know that it's
like, a catchy thing that will get people to sort of engage
with the, this story, which is probably why.
It'll it'll be like, in the nut graph of the, a head about the
be real, you know, the rise of be real reality Consultants,
because the editors will be like, oh, what's this Vibe shift
up in here, right? Exact that, at least agree that
you won't be writing the cool story.
If you say Vibe, shift. I mean, I wanted to, I don't
know if there's a tangent or not we can we don't have to go into
this. But are you following the hole?
Like dime Square issue? No, tell me about.
I saw the headline or the tweets, but I didn't click on
the article. What I mean was Times Square, is
like a sub. It's like a very Niche part of
New York. I think it's associated with the
Red Scare podcast. There was this, like, I think a
dime Square newspaper, that Ben Smith wrote about, if you
remember that, there was a whole back-and-forth there.
I mean, there's some crazy sub Stacks that I've read.
Going through like all this like leftist arthouse drama I think
affiliated with diamond Square. They're all these podcasts,
their podcast way more popular than ours about this like fake
made up small community. Okay so that that's going on.
I mean why is it called Times Square?
Is it because it's full of hot people or know.
I think a dime because I think it's like a I think it's a
geographic it's like a ripoff of I think it's like Lower
Manhattan and it's like a sort of times.
Square. Like but it's you know this is a
shitty part of town. So it's Times Square.
I think like I think it's like our immediate neighborhood and
it but yeah. So and then Taylor Lorenz,
tailored Lorenz sort of observed, you know, this is this
is all fake, you know, the media is just interested in like
talking about people adjacent to itself and blah blah blah blah
which is obviously true. But I think if anything what's
been weird about this time, is it used to be that like Elite me
You could just like, I don't know, whip out The Fad or say,
like this is happening now, and then it was like a fun thing,
and that's what the vibe shift was.
But the problem was that given that there isn't sort of the
same command and control sort of media environment.
They couldn't really dictate it. So, they just sort of said, it
seems like something's changing people want.
I think what was happening, this is my view, I think people want
sort of to be told that like the culture is moving here, like
here's the new. A cool thing like that, people
are fatigued of this period where there is no, you know,
we're just consuming all all old, you know, the 90s, the
eighth, you know, everybody's consuming all the old content so
there's nothing like they've feels of this time.
People want sort of somebody to say this is what it's all about.
These are the characters were obsessed with it aren't, you
know, Donald Trump and so that's like this whole like that's like
the dime squares and stuff, but the media I feel like
everything's been so I don't know, but time.
It seems like it's just a pure abstraction, right?
Like it's a commentary on the lack of an identifiable Trend by
claiming something exists. That doesn't really other than
for the fact that people are making fun of the fact that it
doesn't exist. Right.
I mean is that that sort of the witches exist because people
start writing about in creating content around it and then
people get invested in, you know, it's like professional
wrestling or something. I mean it's like we went to the
no, you weren't there, I went to a party with who's the one who
sells snake oil care? Align Callaway or whatever.
Like I feel like she's you don't follow her.
This is Caroline Calloway. She like, I think she wrote a
book called like scammer, you know, she's like a famous like
minor scam. You know.
She's anyway. Okay.
Well yeah, they're all these characters.
I mean, I feel like in social media world right now, you know,
you, you know, who is the most? Like, I feel like a phenomenon
on my Tick Tock while we're just observing social media.
Is that I see the reaction to the trend before I see the
trend. Do you experience this all the
time? Because the reaction is much
larger than the trend and because we're yeah, we is, were
in the demographic of reaction. I think it's both that.
But who is your Tick-Tock reacting to right now?
Well I'm bad. I'm a bad taste test case here
because I'm so new to tick tock and I think the app is still
trying to figure out who the fuck I am and so like it's full
of Is Andrew Tate on your radar? No, I don't know what
characters. Oh my God.
This is coming. He's, it's like a terrible
terrible men's rights guy, but literally Andrew Tate was on a
podcast and that pot has immediate like just had Elon
Musk on or is going to after this.
And Andrew Tate has been on like, he was honestly, like,
it's like a Steven Crowder time. I don't know.
He's like, he's bad. I mean it's like but it's just
like Like, you know, it's like the game, you know, it's like
any of these sort of like, pickup artist sort of things
like on steroids, and I think all these content creators just
like, it is, you know, something to Pivot off of.
It's just like another. I don't know what it is, it's
deeply troubling. But if he's eyeing present, he's
omnipresent like, I mean, it's just like, yeah, it's yeah.
And people just seized on whatever the storyline is to
build a universe out of Well, so, but back to the dime Square
thing. I mean, the idea that people are
claiming that something exists that doesn't really exist.
But keep writing about it enough that they could eventually will
it into existence or have enough people follow it.
That it seems like a real entity, it's not like it's a
pretty small jump between that and Q and on to me, right?
Like I've always viewed the coming down through exist.
Like there are people who are like in the circle or whatever
like it's just like 30 people are so, you know, I don't know.
Yeah, well, I mean, I guess you could say there are some
elements of Q and A but Jeffrey Epstein and that sort of stuff
that like exists, you know, to say that there are people like
Elites in the world that do things that are gross.
And there is like far more of that than people are willing to
accept. But I'm just talking about the
larger mass of people that is find the concept interesting and
decide to claim it exists because it gives them
entertainment. Basically the same.
It's hard to distinguish between the people who are genuine Is
and the ones who just like are entertained by it.
And ultimately it doesn't really matter if it would put that I
think this is what you're saying.
There's an argument that some of the media obsession over q and
on was because the media wants to be able to criticize Trump
people for being total. Loony Bin's.
So it's like, okay, we're going to underline this.
I mean, I don't actually agree with this view.
I think you and on was pretty sizable like a big, a big
contingent of the Trump. Ace believed in it came up a
lot. Dime Square.
I don't think we're ever going to see, you know, a day where I
don't know, Democratic Party politics are, I mean, that's the
thing, the dime Square world, the Red Scare world of anything.
Like, part of the trend is like, flirtation with the right
despite professing to be like, you know, communist, you know,
that's sort of any way that it's a right.
And you're gonna go down that road, and there's obviously a
distinction between Democratic Party politics and like the
leftist podcast world. But back to The Tick-Tock
because I did reach It because I am now covering YouTube and it
would seem like I'm just not doing my job if I'm not aware of
the be because basically take do it.
Can we have Sirens going off your like chain beat change
older? I think I said changing, so you
can and I'm in a transition was covering like labor and Uber and
now what Google and YouTube. I mean, usually YouTube.
Yeah, I mean YouTube is part of Google.
But yeah, Google with an I just learned that with alphabet or
just, just Google. I think it's Google with a focus
on YouTube but it's Owing to be Google corporate Politics as
well. But yeah, I mean basically
Tick-Tock and its user and it's you know ux has completely
upended. All social media companies.
It's the only thing. Everyone's scrambling to copy
that even YouTube. Which you would think.
Is this like unmovable unchangeable bhima that I saw
there was like a Pew study that says 95 percent of teens are
using YouTube. So like dwarfing every other
platform you know, YouTube remains right on Have Mark
Bergen hon of Bloomberg. Who has a book coming out?
Yes it's a like comment subscribe.
I believe we are hotly anticipated by the dead cat
show. Yeah.
Now what will go deep on YouTube when Bergen is on but but yeah
so I had to download Tick-Tock and you know, they ask me
generally, you know, because you when you first he's been too
long for you but you don't remember.
But can you first go on? They ask you like generally,
what are you into? So I can just populate the feed
with something and then I guess over time they like refine it to
make it. Even more addictive.
And at first, the stuff that they kept showing me was like
prank videos, but it would be like, but it was like
life-affirming prank videos. So it would be like a guy going
up to someone at an inn and out and being like, Hey, man, can I
have three dollars to buy a burger and then if he gives
them, you know, like five dollars right here?
Like, it'll be like, it'll be like, hey, how much was your
meal for your you and your friend?
And he's like, oh man, it's like $18 is like, here's 20 bucks a
nice guy. - where is your beasts guy famous, just like, instead
of using the money that he would use on marketing using the money
to just like, give to people and using that to generate interest,
right? If he's like the most popular
Creator on YouTube, so he has a large budget where the guys were
just like at stake talk. So I can spend $20 or something
on this, but I've been getting a lot of those at first.
I think that just there's a universal human.
I get the, these Tick-Tock guys go up to somebody.
It's like, do you want $2 or do you want me to do?
Owen give $4 to the next person. I've seen that one.
Yeah. They like a costume.
People at the mall. I don't like those and then I've
got a lot of like soldiers surprising their family by
coming home V. Basically, I'm getting like
Midwestern Christian, mom Tick-Tock which is very strange
for me. It has moved away from that
eventually, but it was funny to see, like the algorithm being
like, who the hell is this guy now?
It's a lot of DIY projects. You know, people like unyielding
were Tick-Tock. Tick-Tock Tick-Tock Tick-Tock
Tick-Tock but you don't think YouTube YouTube.
There's to me. But my problem with YouTube is
it's just, I feel like it's, it's just really over index is
on whatever you watch. Like it's all like MacBook tips
chess and like video game sort of suggestion stuff, donkey and
particular, do you ever go through and delete your history
to like force the algorithm to re know find you?
That's interesting. Oh I do that all the time.
I just get annoyed because what happens is I'll do it and it
keeps eventually getting back to the right thing for Me which is
like old David Letterman Clips or something or like nor
McDonald over and over again? I don't know if you can do that
with Tick-Tock though like force the algorithm to forget.
You like redefine who you are. But what I've noticed with
Tick-Tock and I think probably is part of the reason it's so
addictive. Is it does change itself up a
little bit? Oh yeah, I think in different
sessions on be like, oh, forget forget all that shit about like,
whatever workout videos, like let's move to, you know, like
leather building things out of It seems like Tick Tock could
figure out very quickly, though, the diet's over.
Now we're fantasizing. I like pizza.
You know, I like it is very responsive to whatever that that
shift is. Yeah.
Well, I when Katie's on next to, I'll have to ask her about
because she said, she got a lot of cooking Tick-Tock videos.
Like she would get a lot of people making shit on there and
all the food videos on Tick, Tock are gross to me.
It's just like people rapping spaghetti and like, burger meat
and I mean, it's been written about.
But, you know, Oh, there are these accounts where the gimmick
is, they just make the food terribly in a sort of
unappealing way and like, it's a total engagement hack just to
get people to like, be like, why are you doing this?
And, you know, it's just it's like we're doing it because you
flip out and like, people hate it and that's that is what's
disturbing about social media where it's just I feel like some
human should come in and be like this.
This isn't good for anybody. Like this is just objective.
Bad. Anyone who would like to spend
their time. Like, if they would just stop
watching these, if somebody could be like, you know, this is
like bullshit, right? It's just meant to make you
angry. Like, I don't know, that's where
social media gets. So black, especially strange,
with cooking stuff, because it could be useful, right?
Like, it could be like a cooking tip.
You could apply, start off, may be reasonable and then they
doing something. They just, it's hard to tell
which it is though. Like I saw one the other day
where someone had like taken like a rib eye steak and put it
inside a Watermelon. And then put the watermelon on
the grill, to see, I'm sure this is just gonna drive you and say,
well, he was just like, Bool during like, I hate you.
That's like, exactly wasn't gross or anything.
It was just like, what the fuck is this?
Like, yeah, I guess you could do that but it's been living in my
head since then. So I guess like it was effective
as far as that goes, right? It's a strange app.
It's and I guess the thing I want to ask you because you and
Katie are addicted to it. Do you feel fulfilled after you
watch a lot of sex, You feel like oh, I've just gotten some
solid entertainment here, I do find it a very, it's a very
enjoyable, you know, I do think it delivers like dopamine hits
pretty regularly. I also, it does surface like,
you know, philosophy tick-tocks and stuff.
So sometimes I I find myself like quoting back various like
aphorisms and like summations of different thinkers and how did
you get to them in? A lot of a seed, has a core,
whatever. Dziedzic like this, Jack David?
Yeah, yeah. Okay, that's good.
He's entry like him on. They're doing it or people just
quoting him, both him, him doing it, and then people sort of
interpret it. Okay, well, that's been on
YouTube to, I know, like Contra points was like, a very popular
YouTube account of, like, the kind of a leftist trans, right?
And I'll get all these philosophers traps, you know,
apparently there's no Bridge content on Tick-Tock because it
hasn't found me. Well, that could be you gah,
there's an audience for that. Sure, well they don't have
Tick-Tock. I mean it's like if the mail it
to their house, I guess the reason I asked though is that
every like Tick-Tock session that I've had which yet like
it's rising like I said yesterday I was on it for like
one point two hours which is disgusting.
I don't feel good afterwards. I think I just feel like it's
pure empty calories and it's not like, you know, Facebook or
Instagram or YouTube or like full nourishment, but there's a
unique emptiness from my Tick Tock experiences that.
I'm just like the bare minimum of entertainment To me that I
turn it off at some point because I'm just like, you know,
like I feel like a glutton and I'm just, like, full of bad food
that I gorged on. It's always funny when you get a
tick tock this like, basically, trying to convince you, they
Tick Tock. He's like terrible or like there
was some like passage from like my Dinner with Andre or
something. That's at the time that movie
comes out very cynical of sort of, our consumptive world.
Sort of information consumptive world and like imagine that sort
of in the context of tick-tock I do.
It's yeah. But I'm like oh my God I got
like an interesting you know I was just like it's good at like
giving you a lot of like what's going on in the world.
Like I don't know more satisfying than Twitter at all.
When you say going on in the world, do you mean like what are
the things that people are into on Tick-Tock?
Right? Right.
Well, that yeah. What are the trends?
Yeah, you're way more in touch with your fellow humans from
that. I feel like well yeah.
Yes. Certainly, I mean, it's
obviously not your friends and maybe more than Twitter because
that does optimizes towards journalists and making you
angry, which Tick-Tock doesn't really.
It seems like. I like the app couldn't be
successful. If it's just about making you
mad in the way. No does.
Yeah. We'll see what happens as time
goes on. But at the current moment, I'm
at with it, it's just like, I guess I just the bare minimum of
entertainment for me, but because the interaction with it
is so addictive. It's just the swipe and you can
do it so many times that if Doesn't meet that blow low bar,
you can move on to the next one like that and of itself is as
much a part of the experience that like the content.
It's definitely bad for your brain.
You know what has to be? It has so bad.
Yeah, I definitely feel bad after I've been on it in a way
that I did not with with social, you know, other social media
platforms. Anyway, did you want to move on
to be Lon at all Ilan? Which part of it?
Well, that was another thing that happened while I was out
that he is apparently sold like several billion dollars.
Hours worth of his stock in anticipation of losing his, what
his conscience. He said he wasn't selling, then
he sells, you know it's just I don't know is his followers or
the ultimate suckers, you know. I don't know what to say beyond
that it's hysterical. I really have no ambiguity.
Like, I don't know how I mean, it's amazing.
I mean that it seems like this whole Twitter thing existed as a
pretext to let him sell at like the For a Time, definitely, but
he's already lost that Gambit, right?
Because the stock is down so much from when he initially.
But then in the off, rebound it for a while.
I mean it's a has it. Yeah.
Okay. But it's still down
significantly from its peak it's down but it surged.
Yeah. Well but here's my question for
the the Elan you know fanatic sick offense is that I got to
think part of the appeal with him is that he keeps wriggling
out of shit because that is remarkable, right?
It's like he can call someone a pedophile for no reason.
Get sued for it and win or he can claim.
He's going to take Tesla private, the SEC filed a suit
against him, and the nothing really happens.
Other than a slap on the wrists, and that's cool.
Like, I get that, I get that, like, in the age of trump and
like, no, you no consequences for people being outlandish,
like, Elon is one of the best at it.
Consequences are coming. This is we're finally getting
their Trump, they're searching his house Ilan.
They're going to make him buy Twitter, like maybe like
Twitter. Like, that's the ultimate
consequence. It just takes a couple years of
a Craddock Administration and the the party that's you know
allegedly rioting in the streets, brings back Law and
Order. I like that would be you know,
another Vindication for the Democrats.
But yeah. I mean I can't make that
argument. You could make that argument.
I am making that. That is a sincere argument.
Yeah. Yeah.
Is that, like, look, if we like a year from now, Elon is like
owning Twitter and just tanking it and drop.
I do love. I do love the D.
We I mean the conservatives love to go crazy.
It's like the Crap. Don't even want him to have
Twitter, but now they desperately want to force him to
have Twitter but I'm like, that's a totally coherent, like
logical story. Like I can that makes total
sense to me that I would prefer to punish Ilan for following
through on his agreement. Then saved Twitter to be like I
mean just burn it down, you know.
Yeah. I mean there's not even like a
politicization yet really with like, by owning Twitter, like
it's just like he signed a fucking Tracked that says he
needs to own it but it is funny to see, politicians.
You know, they were trying to like Curry favor with Ilan.
They're like, oh, he's a, he's a free agent right now.
Like we could draft him. We know he basically said he's
going to support DeSantis. Yeah.
Oh, did he go? Because I know we said he
wouldn't support Trump. He is signaled to Santa support,
but I'm talking more about like, the, you know, attorney general
in Texas, filing a suit against twittering because of, you know,
unjust not disclosing their but levels, you know, To me was like
a clear, like, oh, we can show him that like, we can, you know,
like, the the Texas legal system is on his side.
Yeah. Join us.
How are people not disturbed by this?
Yeah, exactly. Right.
So, that was like, a clear move in that direction.
But then I'm saying, so, like, a year from now, Elon is owning
Twitter. And Trump is like, in prison for
Espionage. Well, you probably just be on
trial or something. Yeah.
Okay. But like, he's actually charged
in a serious way and like, I mean, it wouldn't be a bad move
by democrats, to claim like this.
Is the system functioning again at rice is, what happens?
Normally, you know, when we go out first couple crypto frauds,
you know, I mean, they're, they're investigating like
coinbase. I mean, it is insane.
How slow it all is. And the functionaries have been
there the whole time. But the crypto thing is weird
though, right? Like it doesn't seem like either
party is trying to make like being for or against it.
A core aspect of their platform right now, right now I'm worried
that people are going to get bought out by But I mean there's
you know Sam bingman freed is donating a ton of money and they
all want it to be regulated by the Commodities future trading
commission instead of the SEC, which is just like Bonkers.
I mean, it's just like, so it won't fall under all the SEC
rules because we're going to treat it as something totally
different. I mean, it's it's like an insane
work around, but I do worry that it's the classic case where
there were the people who support.
Thing are such diehards that there isn't the same energy on
the opposite. Like what am I going to spend my
life arguing that Bitcoin can't be, you know, regulate it should
be regulated by the SEC. What is the politicians getting
bought out by the crypto world? Look like them?
It's just donors. There's like a bill.
There's a bill. I forget.
It's like, it's weird. It's like the agriculture
chairs. I forget but there's a key Bill.
Its, that's been position. That's very Pro crypto.
Uh-huh. So basically just the Passage of
that bill if that if that's somehow gonna be a boondoggle,
be insane. Yeah, yeah.
I'm because we've already passed the point of like, you know, the
individual coins. You know, like suddenly
Elizabeth Warren's, like I'm doing a warrant coin or a very
coin and like, you know that she's been bought out or
something like that. Period has passed already to be
clear. Elizabeth Warren has in no way
done that and no, no. But I'm saying that would be the
ultimate like that would be the shirt victory for crypto is
that? Yeah, he is.
That would be quite the Bailey. Coin Ico would be the end of any
sort of like, you know, Federal Regulation of u.s. space.
Anything. Always with Warren is extremely
hostile to that. Yeah.
But that period has passed. So, yeah, I guess it would have
to be legislation, which is very hard to do like that.
You know. No one can pass any legislation.
Now, whoa, we've had tons but yeah, sure.
Yeah, sure. I mean, it everything currents
like a Herculean effort and not sort of like oh yeah.
We'll just try something and we can always pass the different
bill or Whatever. Yeah, the dates Cinema would be
pretty easy to take. I feel like, you know, given
that she came out in favor of the carried interest loophole,
which is still one of the craziest things for someone to
like later career alive for newcomer is proudly in favor of
carried interest exemption kill. I'm Brian not in favor but
definitely I think my financial interest would seem to be in
favor you know like I feel like I should have had a subscription
drive when that got repealed. Be like oh you thought you were
going to lose like millions of dollars a year?
Because of this you can spend $150 on media like yeah.
But it's the opposite of a special offer it was just like I
just found out that your net worths are going to be protected
exactly for the foreseeable future.
Subscribe, your passive income is fucking guaranteed during
jacking up the price. You should have done that Frank.
Yeah. Was there a Sam bacon?
Free tweet storm. Yeah, to between threads so it's
fascinating. Yeah, I'm just trying Sighing.
Okay, he tweeted this on Sunday, the financial circle jerk, then
it makes it clear. This is not Financial advice and
missing lots of nuance. He says, in the last year, meta,
has around 100 billion dollars in Revenue, that it makes him
selling ads. And it's like who buys Those
ads. Uber, Sofia firm, Robin Hood,
coinbase Jordache. I mean, it's basically making
this argument that VC, money, you know, flows into Facebook,
that makes Facebook more valuable than then.
I feel like the big leap of this argument, is that, then the
money coming out of Facebook, effectively makes the VCS richer
allowing them to invest in startups again.
So, this is a very 2014 fighting arguing, we use.
Be obsessed with this because there are app install ads,
right? And so the idea was by startups
that were all VC funded. And so it was just indirect VC
money flowing into Facebook, but then it basically then all the
Brand's figured out. I mean, the death of like, what
someone called, I don't know, Casper and stuff, Warby Parker.
I mean those companies, they're both are still our own death,
they're still around but like that they're not like huge sexy
companies anymore is because yeah, other e-commerce other
brands figured out how to advertise on Facebook and so the
ads As weren't underpriced anymore.
You know, basically startups just didn't have exclusive
access to Facebook ad. So this is feels like an
extremely dated. Yeah, argument.
Yeah. It's like he's just catching up
on the thing that like you said, we were freaking out about in
2014 15 when Facebook, you know, was basically a lever that push
people towards different mobile apps by targeting people in
their timeline. And yeah, it did not take down
Facebook even though a ton of those direct to Consumer
companies did collapse because Is they have a huge fucking base
of advertisers, like it's just, it's just more complicated than
that. They have like small businesses
all over the world advertising on their they have like
multibillion-dollar even like when there was like the ad
boycott against Facebook at the height of like Cambridge
analytical and like a ton of big Brands pulled their advertising
for a month from them. It didn't affect their earnings
at all. So anyone who's like arguing
that they're like you know, Sterling Cooper and their entire
Revenue stream is based on Lucky Strike that's just not true.
Or Facebook. So I would not that's pretty
disappointing from the boy Genius of the crypto world.
And somebody was just like I ever I mean I think this was a
common reaction on Twitter but just like I'm not the posi your
the Ponzi, you know, it just felt like an extreme sort of
deflection from you know, a business that is often accused
of like Facebook people were saying that no, no, I'm saying
that like crypto world like this and Bank Note, 3 ft x world
right is dependent, you know, a deeply Actor world where the
value of one thing props up, you know, they all crash together.
You know, it's not like these, it's not like we had a Bitcoin
crash, and aetherium crash to, you know, they're all they're
very correlated right now. So that there is death.
There is Ponzi economics all over over crypto world.
So then it does feel a little bit like absurd to make it seem
like it's a Facebook issue. Well, the mistake he made was
focusing on Facebook I think like they're just too big of a
Any, if you did it for SNAP, for example, that could feel a
little bit more true, right? And like their you know their
business did kind of collapse during a quarter because there
was a downturn in like a specific type of Advertiser, let
that like those ones like app install ads.
And so I mean it's not a sexy argument to make like you're not
going to go viral by saying, like Snap is not a very safe
company because too much of their at, you know, Revenue
comes from app install ads from precarious startups, but they
going after Facebook was just, that was dumb like that.
I don't know, to tell you dude, on some level, I'm sympathetic
to what he's trying to say. People clearly underestimate how
interconnected everything is and valuations, are I mean, that's
why, when the bear Market comes, It Feels So sudden everything
evaporates it once because it's like, you know, your Revenue,
you know, was my investment doll for this from you know, my
investment dollars, your evaluation was propping up
startup valuations, you know, there is a level of
interconnected. Dennis to it.
All in Facebook is one of the most, you know, the largest
companies in the world and is sort of essential to part of the
ecosystem, but feels super misguided in that Facebook.
I mean, and one last thing that Sam doesn't ring up is of
course, Zuckerberg is a huge investor and iconic and other
firms, probably and those firms than prop up the startup world,
but I just don't agree with this.
Like, the VC funds are just like getting their money.
First of all, he, I think he said that face.
It was paying off dividends and that shareholders which is not
true. Right?
That's not true. So it's like Facebook's increase
in value made, you know, Vanguard wealthy and then
Vanguard cells some of that and is like an LP or like more
accurately, like the Harvard endowment.
So some sure is and becomes an LP.
I mean, there's a, there's a truth to it but it just like, I
don't know. I mean, just moving from, it's
like a claim about how much you Zuma, but I don't know.
Is the world bigger is the world small?
It's like you can see See it both ways and we all cycle
through like saying the world is very small in the world is huge,
you know, right? Yeah but I guess what I don't
would it seems like we're all kind of waiting around for to a
degree is like we know that there is going to be some sort
of downturn Tesla to implode. That's right.
That's the thing we want to
collapse, you want to Lehman Brothers and when I say want, I
don't mean the media will say just mean like that's a clear
signal. You feel like if you have a
bubble, you have. I mean SoftBank is down a lot
and there's a lot more markdown, so soft.
Is looking. I mean, again these things are
never like a total total shock. I mean, on the one hand, like
Enron was one of the most, you know, popular companies
wherever. But my sense is that people were
also like deeply skeptical of it at the time.
Sure. I mean, they were aware that it
was responsible for many bad things.
The idea of like energy trading was not a sustainable business
in the way that they were doing it.
Like let alone like like forgetting the fraud and and all
that aspect. But you know, like Lehman
Brothers like people were looking For a load-bearing beam
in the economy to collapse to bring down a whole bunch of
things and it's I just don't know what it would be here.
We talked about this before, on the show like we had success
with it. Yeah.
Like it's just it's I mean, Robin Hood is not load-bearing.
But I mean we have yet to see the sort of dramatic
bankruptcies. I mean you know, emile's company
d-wave just listed through ass pack and the fact that I mean
these Quantum companies which even if the technology is As
good as advertised have just such a long time Horizon, right?
You know, I just feel like we're still seeing sort of, you know,
optimistic forward-looking stuff.
And that's why I'm saying I right now we're in this what I
believe to be sort of a temporary up turns out at CERN.
It's making everybody sort of feel good about the.
I mean, literally true moth. I've been listening to all in a
lot. I'm thinking about writing a
piece about them and like, Josh, your mouth was basically like,
You know, take a Victory lap, he's a stock market, you know?
Because his stuff is up, like 20% or so, you know, it's like
so like this last six months, I mean, like he's he must be down
unbelievably from the SPAC Peak that he had right.
Like there's no there is nothing for him to Champion until he's
like up again from, you know, from the beginning of the wave
that he created with specs. I mean that would be an
interesting thing. But again, like the SEC
basically killed specs, so it never got to a point where it
could be such a large part of the market that, you know, it
You know, like the bad fundamentals of all those
businesses could be like, you know, have larger Ripple
effects. I don't know, I don't know.
I mean it's very strange to cover because of that.
Right? Like you want to write the
Lord's Trend piece to explain the State of Affairs, it just
seems like it's mostly just a valuation reset, right.
Just a lot of companies that were growth, right?
That's makes clear and I mean that's where it's been super
interesting because you saw like well I mean that, you know, it
companies had fallen a lot and then they rebound a lot.
I mean, it's all you see a lot of Arresting price Discovery
happening which you know, makes the market more fun.
Yeah. And like when the supply chain
is like at the center of a lot of the problems and it's such a
complicated right? You know ASP races were in say
now they're low, you know, we had all this coverage about gas
prices and now it's like they're low again.
I mean other still high, but they're not as high.
They're prettier way down and they are down.
I'm still paying more than five dollars a gallon.
Yeah, you live in California, I mean, I'm saying you're crazy a
lot, but I used to think people who live in California, New
York. Yeah, being shocked about gas
prices. I mean, to be clear, we should
have gas taxes like high, gas prices make sense.
Yeah, that's, that's, that's a difficult argument.
I saw people out there making it basically.
We, I'm like saying the higher than Tracy, that forces people
to not use their yes. And it's like, yeah, the market
is supposed to word. It's a regressive, it's a
regressive tax, most of the time like it's like taxing
cigarettes. Ultimately like the people that
don't have money, still have to use cars, and if you raise gas
prices, They're not going to suddenly be able to do their
jobs by taking public transit. Which by the way, rich people
don't do. And like, if this was done
hand-in-hand from like making public transit functional and
like something that people all over cities and like Suburban
areas could use then I could like begin to hear that
argument. But I would think your crew you
know the the sort of Market based thinking would be you're
creating more support for public transit.
If people feel squeezed by taking their cars and pandering
to people and the poorest People obviously don't have cars so
we're talking it is a middle-class shoe and then there
is like, people can still have cars, you know, there are, there
are in there are sort of Middle Ground Solutions, Beyond just,
you know, not going anywhere. You can drive less.
I would actually be in favor of having a guest on here to talk
through some of this stuff. Because I do think it's
interesting. I always thought like the
transit aspect of the gig economy was the most interesting
part of the be that I probably should have written more about.
Bout. You did some of the gas stories?
Yeah, I did the gas stories. And I also wrote a bit about
companies that were trying to use because like, uber pool as
you like to say, was a failure. Yes.
And but they like, the idea of it is obviously a good one,
which is like, how do we create efficiencies in car sharing?
Which it's obviously not. That is not happened.
We've just like clogged cities with gig workers who were just
trying to pick up fares and like made traffic worse.
So, Uber pool was supposed to be solution to that, but it didn't
work for a meal, you know, a million reasons.
But the technology Behind it. If it were actually perfected,
could be good, right? Like, you could have a sort of
like smart routing public transit system that is like
equivalent to an Uber pool, but actually makes economic sense
because you're using larger vehicles.
I find all that stuff really interesting and it's an area
that Uber has absolutely failed in, but there are some startups
that are trying to do it. I don't know.
I'm so skeptical that anyone who says they can try and do, I just
feel like uber We talked about this company way too much, but,
Uber through, what what's the number now?
Like, 30 plus billion dollars at these problems, like, if we
haven't experimented enough on what's possible with routing,
what's possible with carbon like they've failed, you know, there
was a huge subsidy to make this possible, right, and they
couldn't make it work, consumers weren't willing to pay for it.
So I don't think some small piddly startup is just going to
like, I mean, this happens obviously, you know, in
comments. Get sloppy.
But I just feel like we just went through a period of massive
research in this and I just don't think it works.
I think it makes much more sense to just like improve the bus
system. You know, like the buses Newark.
I mean, the bus just doesn't come like you go and wait for
it. Like I don't know why it doesn't
count but like I really like just my just some tweaks to the
municipal bus services in the biggest cities in the world
seems more valuable than like, I don't know.
Even though I tend to believe in Solving these things on on
busing them, pretty, right? This is quite a change from from
last week. When you were saying that you
thought Amazon could could fix our Health Care system, because
they're a great company. Well, part of the problem is
that a company would be competing against a subsidized
service. So if you were to take this
subsidy that we use for buses and handed over to a company or
sort of competing companies, maybe I would be bullish on
that. Meanwhile, Amazon is moving into
competing against like Like doctors offices, right?
Other companies? Sure, sure.
Yeah. It's a different art I'm saying.
Don't compete against a subsidized service that seems
like a loser. I don't think it's hard to be so
much more efficient that you can be do something.
So, I mean, what these startups man, we really should bring
someone on if you're interested in this because there are a lot
out there and they are smart people that their argument is
basically just trying to win contracts with public transit.
So it's like we have great routing technology, we can input
that In your buses and make them kind of be like ride hail
adjacent, you know, like uber pools but with larger vehicles
and it wouldn't be like some company doing it.
They would be providing the technology that undergirds it
and maybe the app or something not not much money, maybe maybe
do it again, I got some it not, it's not a great.
If I mean, these companies have been pitching me for my like
four years, I just sort of avoid them at all.
I mean, none of them have well, these down to, it's really hard.
I mean, like these basically say for most companies, if your
client is the government. We're not all that interested
unless it's the government trying to kill people and then
there's a lot of door and that if sure if you want to help the
government do what it does. Best the course of a honest of
the state, exactly what we were once great at and Erica killing
people. It's Kia, the military
industrial complex was like a great opportunity.
Yeah. I mean that people these are
extremely bullish on enderal. I do think people really look to
that as a model and so I think there's going to be a lot of
investing in that space. I mean And recent obviously as
American dynamism. So it's red hot.
Yeah. Cal is starting to throw like
clothes off my bed so we probably have to wrap it up
there. Soon was there anything else you
want to talk about? We didn't really get into the
Trump FBI's. Well without Katie I feel like
it's yeah we can we can put a pin in that.
I have so many questions so many questions.
I feel like we've just moved fully into the Burn After
Reading version of reality. Anyway, this was good.
I'm I'm glad to be back. Yeah.
I mean I'm glad to take a vacation but I had I had a lot
of thoughts that I had no Outlet, no Forum to put them in
so I guess if nothing else. That's what this podcast is for.
I can't even promise. What will happen next week?
We've previewed a couple of guests coming up soon.
We'll have Mark Bergen on. Oh yeah.
About YouTube, we have a few other ideas.
We've been. We've been working on, so stay
tuned. Thanks for listening and we'll
see everyone back here next week.
Goodbye. Goodbye, goodbye.
Goodbye, goodbye, goodbye, goodbye.
Goodbye.