1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,080 So Aurora programme has been one of those things that you know 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:08,119 appears every now and then. Nobody quite knows what it 3 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:10,400 means. Aurora could easily have been a 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,160 series of developmental programmes and ended up in an 5 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:18,080 aircraft with an RQ designation. We flat out don't know and 6 00:00:18,080 --> 00:00:21,040 nobody is going to know for another 40 plus years. 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:30,760 So I would suggest that that when the SR-71 was retired, 8 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:36,320 there was probably, almost certainly a black research 9 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,360 programme on overflight type reconnaissance. 10 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,360 And then we don't know how it went, we don't know how it 11 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,960 branched, but we might very well have seen the products. 12 00:01:00,110 --> 00:01:02,750 W Welcome back 10th century. You're looking really pensive. 13 00:01:02,950 --> 00:01:05,430 That's a sort of far off gaze. It's almost as though you're 14 00:01:05,430 --> 00:01:10,040 getting ready for for combat. I have no idea what I look for 15 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,400 when I'm getting ready for combat, but I'm probably not, 16 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,280 not like this. I was younger. 17 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,440 But no less handsome. Oh, absolutely true. 18 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:25,000 OK, for the audience at home, this is a new series that star 19 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,440 Baby and I conceived. I think I was going to say it 20 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,840 was a drunken conversation. I I think I was drunk. 21 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:32,360 We were having a conversation on the phone. 22 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:36,200 It was over Christmas this year and this idea came up that we 23 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,160 could actually there before that even I think we had discussed 24 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,320 the idea that we'd take things that were difficult for people 25 00:01:41,320 --> 00:01:45,560 to get their head around or that were often misconceived or 26 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,360 misunderstood. So what's the difference between 27 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,000 Seed, What's Wild Weasel? You know, that's the, I think 28 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,120 that was probably the genesis for that conversation. 29 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,120 And we said what we should do is you should put together little 30 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,920 presentations that go through and explain those things from 31 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,880 the, from the operator's point of view. 32 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,480 And then I think that then turned into, in this 33 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,960 conversation where I was probably a bit drunk, the idea 34 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,280 that we would have you come on and just smash or debunk various 35 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,160 myths and legends and things that you hear said about 36 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,200 military aviation and, and that that would make for a good 37 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,440 episode or good series. So that's what we're trying to 38 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,000 do today. So we've already gone out and 39 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,200 spoken to the subscribers to Temp Century. 40 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,640 There's, that's the people who go to tempcentury.com and take 41 00:02:23,640 --> 00:02:26,160 out a subscription, a monthly plan, a plan which I think is 42 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,920 fantastic value for money. And if for no other reason then 43 00:02:29,920 --> 00:02:32,360 now they get the opportunity to ask you questions and then and 44 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,440 then hear you answer those questions for anybody who's 45 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,400 listening and thinking, well, what about the normal episodes? 46 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,160 So this is going to just be released when we record it as 47 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,120 and when we record them in terms of the scheduling, if this comes 48 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,040 out in the middle of a week or something like that, and I've 49 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,240 got another guest who's got another couple of episodes to 50 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,560 come out, don't worry about it. Those will still come out. 51 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:55,720 This is not going to debunk or it's not going to be displace, 52 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,720 displace the other guys or anything like that, but they'll 53 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,760 just think of these as little Easter eggs, even if it's called 54 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,480 Easter. So is there anything else that I 55 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,600 need to say? No, I did have this idea. 56 00:03:08,920 --> 00:03:11,960 I did have this idea that while you were giving your debunking 57 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:16,320 discussion, I'd go on to ChatGPT and then get it to offer a 58 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,360 counter point of view. But I'm not set up to do that 59 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,120 tonight and I want to try and get these to an hour. 60 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,720 So I won't do that this time. Might try and do that next time. 61 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:29,160 Could be quite interesting. Because that would be stupid. 62 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:34,280 It would also require effort and we all know this is a very low 63 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,920 effort enterprise. So all right, all right, so 64 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,040 let's just ask the first question then. 65 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,040 So, so I did go out. I have got a bunch of questions. 66 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,640 So Star Baby for the transparency to the audience. 67 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:46,280 You've seen the first one or two of them, I think, but you 68 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,360 haven't seen any of the others for for technical reasons, not 69 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,560 because we try to hide it or keep it spicy or anything like 70 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,360 that, but just for various technical reasons. 71 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,880 I haven't been able to get that list to you, but the first 72 00:03:55,880 --> 00:04:00,160 question was from Kinetic Sand and his starting question was in 73 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:04,000 fact his only question was super low frequency and passive radars 74 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:05,760 are the death knell for stealth aircraft. 75 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:16,200 OK, so no, they're not. Here's the the issue with low 76 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,040 frequency radar. So let's those are two different 77 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:19,480 things. So let's let's tackle them one 78 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:25,520 at a time. The 1st is that the lower the 79 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:34,080 frequency, the less effective our approaches at stealth can 80 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,320 be. And and so 90% of what we call 81 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,560 radio frequency low observability, commonly known as 82 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,680 stealth is shaping. You can talk about radar 83 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,240 absorbing materials all you like, but physics wise it's 84 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:54,720 shaping. And so the F117, for example, 85 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,440 was designed for the threat radars at the time, which tended 86 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:03,040 to be fairly high in frequency and it skated through lower 87 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,120 frequency radars because nobody knew it existed or how to deal 88 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:11,960 with it until Zoltan Dani shot 1 down with an essay three over 89 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:16,760 Serbia, having used a spoon rest, which is a VHF acquisition 90 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:21,920 radar to help him along. So the challenge with this is 91 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,440 even if you had a perfect black body and a black body is 92 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,400 something that absorbs all radiation. 93 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:34,160 So in this case, a perfect radio black body, if your wavelength 94 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,840 is longer than the body, you will get backscatter. 95 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:44,120 It's a it, it, it, this is a kind of scattering. 96 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,720 You know, we talk about, we talk about radar reflections, but 97 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,200 also the term is backscatter light does the same thing, light 98 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,760 scatters. And so a lot of the the 99 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:56,160 technology or the the physics going around light scattering 100 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,080 was discovered in the 1880s. This is not new. 101 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:07,880 And in the 60s a lot more attention was being take. 102 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:13,120 It was being paid to signature reduction or enhancement 103 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,000 depending on what you needed in the radio frequency ranges. 104 00:06:18,280 --> 00:06:21,760 So any time you have a wavelength that is longer than 105 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,960 your object, you're going to get some degree of backscatter. 106 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:30,320 That's why perversely when you're dealing with low 107 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,680 frequency radars cause lower frequency the longer the 108 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:34,480 wavelength. It's an inverse relationship. 109 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:40,960 The IT is easier to make AB2 stealthy than it is to make an 110 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,280 F35 stealthy. It's just physics. 111 00:06:44,280 --> 00:06:47,800 And what you worry about is not so much just the airframe, but 112 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:49,280 all the features on the airframe. 113 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:55,360 And that's why the B2 is such a marvel of shaping, because it 114 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,640 doesn't have a lot of smaller features. 115 00:06:58,280 --> 00:07:01,240 If you look at the 117, there were a lot of techniques used to 116 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,040 to reduce the effect of their smaller features. 117 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,000 That's still a marvellous stealth aircraft even today. 118 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:16,000 But the lower your frequency, the less your positional 119 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:21,400 accuracy is because the pulse width and the the radar, what we 120 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,880 call the radar resolution cell, which is defined by the width of 121 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,360 the beam and the length of the pulse, it's a 3 dimensional. 122 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,680 As you get lower in frequency, those cells get bigger. 123 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:35,480 So if I have a radar resolution cell that is 3 miles long and 124 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:41,760 three miles wide and, you know, 3 miles deep or high, that's 125 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,040 great. So I get a, a return out of the 126 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:45,880 middle of that. What am I going to do about it? 127 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:53,680 And so that's one of the challenges is that we know from 128 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:58,040 1:17 because Sultan Donnie has debriefed everybody in their dog 129 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:01,040 that he used a VHF radar to detect the 117. 130 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:05,560 Also they were operating, he claims in somewhat of a 131 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:11,360 predictive fashion. So that's low frequency it's and 132 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:15,520 my answer, I keep returning to this, low altitude always works. 133 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,120 It doesn't matter how big your radar cross section is if the 134 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,240 radar does not have line of sight to the target. 135 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,520 And that's what we've seen consistently in Ukraine since 136 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:29,720 2022 is extreme low altitude operations by both sides in 137 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,000 terms of passive, passive coherent location, right? 138 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:40,640 So passive detection systems need to have something to 139 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,360 detect. So your normal passive detection 140 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:48,040 system, stealth aircraft, if it's not emitting, you're not 141 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,640 detecting it. When you talk about passive 142 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,800 coherent location or something like that, what you're really 143 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:57,040 looking at is 1 transmitter. That is not the same place as 144 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,720 your receiver. And you can even use ad hoc 145 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,840 transmitters. There's, there's been plenty of 146 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:07,120 university papers that say you can use TV towers, radio towers 147 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,920 and those broadcasts and you just collect them passively. 148 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:16,280 And in fact, there have been experiments done at 149 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,360 international airports and major airports just setting up a 150 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,600 billboard size receiver and looking for air traffic. 151 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:29,160 The problem with that is one of the problems is when you get to 152 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,360 that low of frequency and you're using ad hoc signals instead of 153 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:37,640 signals on purpose, is that those are ground hugging 154 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:41,640 signals. Cell phone signals, radio 155 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,600 towers, TV's, they're relatively ground hugging. 156 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:48,840 You get up to altitude and the signals aren't propagating that 157 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,120 way. They're propagating along the 158 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:54,840 ground, so you just stay above that particular threat zone. 159 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,360 And they are not a threat to stealth aircraft either. 160 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:04,840 So if we look at low observable aircraft, I think we 161 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:11,640 consistently see that they're not invisible, but they don't 162 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:16,920 need to be. So they just need to be low 163 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:21,400 enough observable that they are hard to detect, or that they can 164 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,560 only be detected too late for it to matter, or they can only be 165 00:10:24,560 --> 00:10:27,080 detected by systems that cannot localise them. 166 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:30,320 Any one of a number of things, and it still does its job. 167 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,280 So there is no Romulan cloaking device. 168 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,320 And that's Romulan by the way, not Klingon. 169 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:44,360 Romulan sold it to the Klingons in the Original series, but the 170 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:47,760 there is no method of doing that. 171 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,920 You just make something low observable, and you can make 172 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,800 things very low observable indeed with shaping. 173 00:10:55,520 --> 00:11:00,720 And so like anything else in aviation and military aviation, 174 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:05,360 there's a counter and there is another counter to the counter, 175 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,080 and there's another counter to the counter to the counter, and 176 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,920 that goes on endlessly. But there are no easy answers 177 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:13,360 one way on one side or the other. 178 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,720 So his question was specifically then around the radar side of 179 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,240 things, obviously from the way he phrased it. 180 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,240 But could you talk a little bit about other dimensions of labs 181 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,200 of ability then? I'm thinking you have visual 182 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,240 labs of ability. You have, you know, it's a 183 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,280 multi, it's a multi spectral domain. 184 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:35,840 So you have visual, you have infrared, you have ultraviolet. 185 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:37,120 I think that those are different, aren't they? 186 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,880 So, or they're different parts of it, But, but those are all 187 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,520 things that you could also use. And I, and I know that if you're 188 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,200 talking about and intercepting A strategic bomber like AB2, you 189 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,440 know, by the time you've got, you can see it visually. 190 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:51,120 If you're a, a surface to air missile system or whatever, then 191 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,560 that probably it's too late. But if you were looking at the 192 00:11:54,560 --> 00:11:58,080 application of fighter to fighter combat, let's say you're 193 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,800 looking at an F35. There is that video, I know you, 194 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,560 you're not going to talk about Iran, but there's that video 195 00:12:03,560 --> 00:12:07,720 that purports to show an F35 being hit by a, a, a missile by 196 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,560 an Iranian infrared surface to missile some description and it 197 00:12:11,560 --> 00:12:14,000 has a big IR plume coming out of it. 198 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:18,640 Is there? So even if you were said to say, 199 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,000 OK, from a from an RF point of view, LO is great. 200 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,000 Do are the strengths in those other parts of the multi 201 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:30,440 spectral domain equally as good or do they somewhat let the side 202 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:36,920 down? So here's your problem. 203 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:38,480 And again, it gets down to physics. 204 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:43,640 You're dealing with jet engines. Jet engines produce heat. 205 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,800 The heat has to go somewhere. They expel hot air out the back 206 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,720 end. There's not a lot you can do 207 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,320 about that, but there are things that you can do to make you less 208 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,600 targetable. So the original infrared guided 209 00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:02,320 missiles were plume trackers because different parts of your 210 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,880 hot jet show up in different portions of the spectrum. 211 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:11,280 So your hot air shows up in one portion of the spectrum, hot 212 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,160 metal from like on your leading edges as you're tearing through 213 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,200 the airframe and friction heats you up, that's another portion. 214 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:25,040 And so there are ways to to kind of try and reduce your signature 215 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,920 by like distributing heat in a different way. 216 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,520 And the, the example I can give you is that, you know, if you 217 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:37,720 looked at the 1:17 and you look at the exhaust, those are flat, 218 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,600 narrow exhausts. There is no afterburner. 219 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,680 It's designed to mix with turbulent aeroplane or air, air 220 00:13:44,680 --> 00:13:48,680 flow behind the aircraft. So you're dealing with hot air 221 00:13:48,680 --> 00:13:51,600 mixing with cold air. And the exhausts are on the top 222 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,000 of the aeroplane, so you couldn't see them from below. 223 00:13:54,800 --> 00:14:00,160 So all those were means of reducing the infrared signature. 224 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,040 Practical. There is still an infrared 225 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,040 signature. There is still a visual 226 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,360 signature. So I talk thermal infrared 227 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:08,680 because that's in emitter, right? 228 00:14:08,680 --> 00:14:11,040 Something gets hot and it emits infrared energy. 229 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,680 But if you're looking in the visual spectrum, that's 230 00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:16,560 reflected energy, right? If the sun's not out, you don't 231 00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:20,200 see AB two, OK. If the sun is out, you see this 232 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,200 big black Batwing, which looks great at air shows, but you 233 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:28,200 don't see AB2 going to the target area at daytime because 234 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:29,960 it's going to be relatively easy to pick up. 235 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:35,600 The Royal Air Force's Hawk T2 Mark Twos, the trainers that fly 236 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,880 at a valley in Wales, they're painted gloss black. 237 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,320 Why is that? Because it's a high visibility 238 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,360 paint scream. And I can tell you from flying 239 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,560 low level in Wales and seeing one of those guys, you know, 240 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,120 suddenly appear, that black moving dot against the Welsh 241 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:50,840 countryside shows up like a champ. 242 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:58,240 So you can't make everything perfect, but you can use you. 243 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,240 Just know your physics and tantrum. 244 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,560 Manage your signature if your threat is coming primarily from 245 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,880 the ground, and try and reduce it when somebody's looking up at 246 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,600 you. OK. 247 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,480 Just one quick follow up then and we'll move on to the next 248 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,160 question then. So you did reference this. 249 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,960 So the question originally was, is, is it the death knell for 250 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,640 for loves over aeroplanes? You said no, it's not. 251 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,440 And you kind of intimated about the fact that you might be able 252 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,400 to find out that something is there, but you can't do anything 253 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,480 with that information. You can't target anything off of 254 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,360 it. But tell us a bit about 255 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:34,640 collapsing the kill chain then. So if you now know there's 256 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:38,760 something in this bit of airspace, you can now presumably 257 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,640 direct some other types of radar or some other type type types of 258 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:45,000 assets to go and investigate what might be there. 259 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:46,840 Does it collapse the kill chain at least? 260 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:49,120 Maybe or. Shorten it. 261 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,120 So I I don't know if it shortens it. 262 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,720 OK, I think it actually introduces additional steps and 263 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:01,440 lengthens it regardless if you if you can't. 264 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,640 I mean, in the bad old days, if you were just, you know, say AB 265 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:11,720 52 flying up and you're silver, I might add in you're flying 266 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,320 your B52 up in the Bozos sphere and an old Russian radar can see 267 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,920 you coming for ages and they send up interceptors against 268 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,200 you. That's a fairly simple set of 269 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,880 steps. If interceptors are taken off as 270 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,320 an option because you can't be localised well enough, you need 271 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,320 to find somebody else. You're adding steps into that. 272 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:33,480 Low observability efforts always pay off in some fashion. 273 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,600 OK. Right. 274 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,280 Next question then. I love this one said Hello, 275 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:43,680 thanks so much for putting this in. 276 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,000 I think that years ago, years ago, this came up and I don't 277 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,600 know if we talked about it directly or if it was tangential 278 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,840 and we were you were indirect in your discussion of this. 279 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,640 But this is a quote from a book which was very sold extremely 280 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:58,560 well. I don't know if it was a New 281 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,640 York Times bestseller, but it was very, very hyped and very, 282 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:04,880 it's all very well and it's a quote for it. 283 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,520 So how, how difficult can it be to have this conversation? 284 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,640 So here is the quote. Harms were used to maybe make 285 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,319 the Iraqis duck a bit, but the threats were killed with 286 00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:16,200 precision munitions and cluster bombs, not suppressed. 287 00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:19,520 So if we'd succumb to the HARM suppression only mindset 288 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,480 advocated by some, how many friendly aircraft might have 289 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,440 been lost? Amazingly, there were several CJ 290 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,240 units that hadn't embraced the concept of destruction of enemy 291 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,880 air defence. They largely spent their war 30 292 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,080 miles from the action at 30,000 feet and brought their HARM 293 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,280 missiles home each day. No thanks. 294 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,240 And that's from the book by Damhampton, which I think might 295 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:45,400 be called Bar Weasel. Yeah, so you've got to be 296 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:49,520 careful about mixing your wars and talking about who's shooting 297 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,000 your Harms. The HARM is a very smart 298 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:53,720 missile. But as you pointed out in your 299 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,440 early Wild Weasel episodes, especially when you've got that 300 00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:01,320 guys like T Bear Larson and ET on, you know, and they explain 301 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:08,120 how smart the HARM is, but how much smarter the APR 47 was in 302 00:18:08,120 --> 00:18:13,360 the F-4G. So in the first Gulf War, the 303 00:18:13,360 --> 00:18:19,480 majority of Sam's killed were killed with Harms, not precision 304 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,360 munitions, although the one seventeens did good work, 305 00:18:22,360 --> 00:18:31,240 particularly against systems that that were architected in 306 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,440 such a way that that the harm was not the best option. 307 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:42,880 The When we go to the second Gulf War, let me step back 308 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:50,920 before the 2nd Gulf War, the F15 ES were raging from late 1998 309 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,200 till Operation Iraqi Freedom kicked off and they had been 310 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:59,920 using precision munitions to dismantle the reconstituted 311 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:02,760 Iraqi air defence. So that's an accurate statement. 312 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:07,440 If you open up your aperture wide enough, by the time you get 313 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:12,000 to Iraqi Freedom, the number of operational Sam systems is very 314 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:18,480 low and the motivation of the operators is very low. 315 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,120 That doesn't mean that guys were not engaged. 316 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:27,840 OK, Hacker can tell you about being engaged in the second time 317 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:32,560 around and you know that was a full up, end to end, I'm trying 318 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,240 to kill you engagement. That was not a couple guys just 319 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,160 throwing missiles your way and shutting down. 320 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:43,000 But I haven't seen a detailed breakdown on who did what to 321 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,440 whom. But you had a mix of a much less 322 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:52,360 capable sensor system on the F16 CJS and a much lower number of 323 00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:56,320 Sam's and a Sam, an air defence enterprise that had been beaten 324 00:19:56,320 --> 00:20:05,160 down by Strike Eagles for years. So yes, the harm might be less 325 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,480 effective at actually exploding on a radar antenna. 326 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,120 That does not mean it was ineffective in suppressing the 327 00:20:12,120 --> 00:20:14,800 threat. And it does not mean that the 328 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:20,160 Viper guys did a bad job despite the fact that they they had 329 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,400 limited sensors, they went where they needed to go. 330 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,680 They put Harms in the air when they needed to be put in the 331 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:26,960 air. And I'll tell you, if you look 332 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:31,880 at the Mosel Sam kill, remember as F16 CJS and EA6 Prowlers are 333 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,520 shooting Harms in ahead of the strike Eels in order to keep 334 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:41,120 that threat and the adjacent threats suppressed. 335 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:48,680 So in any case, I the, the quote is not necessarily untrue, but I 336 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:56,040 think it's over simplistic, unnecessarily disparages the CJ 337 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,720 guys. And I'm no, I'm not shy about 338 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,920 disparaging CJ guys just on general principles, but they do 339 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,800 good work and they do hang it out. 340 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:11,240 So let's let's not mistake that. And so I think the author maybe 341 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,400 has an axe to grind, but does not. 342 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,440 I I I would not consider the author in any way to be an 343 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:24,320 expert in defence suppression. I don't have any follow up 344 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:25,640 questions. We'll leave. 345 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,440 It noted. Can we put the clown icon up 346 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,480 now? I'll do it in post. 347 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:37,600 OK. OK, Matthew, God love him. 348 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,040 He has asked. It's not the plane, but the man 349 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,440 in the box. And of course, you know, we're 350 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:44,480 not. I don't want to be accused of 351 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,160 being gendered. So or use gendered language. 352 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,320 The the person man or the woman in the box. 353 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,960 Yeah. Yeah, that's right. 354 00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:54,840 That's not a myth. That's key. 355 00:21:54,840 --> 00:22:03,480 So one of the questions that that I found myself answering in 356 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,640 a different fashion after I stopped flying fighters was what 357 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,760 is the purpose of the fighter aeroplane? 358 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,760 And you know, the reality is most fighters are fighter 359 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,880 bombers now. I mean, if you're going to be 360 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,160 worth anything, you pretty much need to be able to move mud and 361 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,640 put iron on target as opposed to flying around with your white 362 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:28,360 scarf on trumpeting your superiority in one mission. 363 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:37,240 So the purpose of a fighter aircraft is to put a fighter 364 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:42,880 aviator in the right time or the right place at the right time, 365 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:48,120 with the right equipment and training to rage, destruction 366 00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:51,800 and mayhem upon the adversary. That is the purpose of the 367 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,040 fighter. It is to get the aircrew there, 368 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,760 have them do the mission, and get them out. 369 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,560 Because like all elements of warfare are human endeavours. 370 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:10,000 And so, with that in mind, that's how fighter aviation has 371 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,880 been employed since the very beginning. 372 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:17,920 It's getting a person there. I got to challenge you. 373 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:24,600 OK, If we look at the origins of or the origins of aviation, look 374 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,440 at World War One where there wasn't really much technical 375 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,680 overmatch, you know, you might have your Focker one versus A 376 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,680 top with pop or whatever. I'm not an expert on these. 377 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,800 And maybe 1 can turn a bit tighter than the other. 378 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,440 Maybe 1 can climb a bit faster than the other. 379 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,360 But broadly speaking, you're those two kites, you know, 380 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,200 hooting around at 50 miles an hour and probably is down to the 381 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,400 individual flying them, right? But then you take generations of 382 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,400 fighter aircraft. I mean you, that's why we have 383 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,480 generations to categorise these things. 384 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,080 Those generations broadly describe characteristics and 385 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,960 capabilities. 6th Gen is the latest 1. 386 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,080 I don't know what the definition of that is, but fifth is all 387 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,960 about sense of fusion and the observable characteristics that 388 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:11,520 say, if you take the most recent conflict that we can talk about 389 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,440 then and, and again, I know you're not going to go into, 390 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,960 into detail, it's not something that you're, you're here to do. 391 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:23,000 But taking an F35 up against an Iranian F4 E that is all about 392 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,400 the aeroplane. That's got nothing to do with 393 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,920 the person in it, presumably. Because the. 394 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,040 F4 E But the F1 won't even get to the merge if if, if 395 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,560 everything works as it's supposed to, it won't even get 396 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,760 to the merge. So that the the old days of BFM 397 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,600 and which is the most skilled? Who blinks first? 398 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,720 Who makes the first mistake? Presumably that's all out the 399 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,000 window. Yeah. 400 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,240 So you're repeating a line that was said in the 60s with the 401 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,280 advent of missile armament in Vietnam. 402 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:50,880 Turned out to be completely wrong. 403 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:59,440 The purpose of sensor fusion in the F35 is to get the pilots the 404 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:04,440 best set of information. And the purpose of the F35 405 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:10,760 stealth is to allow that pilot to go into airspace where it is 406 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,760 contested so that the person in that aeroplane can accomplish 407 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,240 the mission. Yes, there is a technological 408 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,760 overmatch between a third generation aircraft and a fifth 409 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,520 generation aircraft. I mean, we're talking something 410 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:30,960 that flew in 1954 versus something that I don't know, it 411 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,320 took 25 years to develop to its, you know, not quite complete 412 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,040 stage as it is right now. But but the technological 413 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:46,520 advancements, I would argue, are mostly about improving the 414 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,680 information and the tools available to the aircrew, OK. 415 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:58,920 OK, let's move on to the next one. 416 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:08,720 All right, So Norby asks and his, so his myth is there's no 417 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,640 100% defence against Shahid 136 or Duran low cost cruise 418 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,800 missiles. They will always slip through or 419 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:20,040 some will always slip through. So you can't shoot 100% of them 420 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,520 down. True, that's true. 421 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,160 That's because you can't shoot 100% of anything down. 422 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,120 So the the Ukrainian success rate. 423 00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:38,920 So in terms of air defences, the Ukrainians operate the most 424 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,600 effective air defence network ever. 425 00:26:42,360 --> 00:26:47,600 In terms of raw numbers, typically you see kill rates on 426 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,560 she heads between 85 and 95% all the time. 427 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,320 And one of the reasons why you can't get to 100 is there's 428 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:59,000 always something that doesn't work or there's a gap in 429 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,400 coverage or it's out in the middle of nowhere where there 430 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:05,160 are no air defences. So you cannot completely blank 431 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,560 at a country the size of Ukraine with air defences. 432 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:14,160 The Ukrainians do awfully well with with various degrees of 433 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,720 success. One of the challenges with the 434 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,440 Shahed 136 in the Goran. And don't believe anybody that 435 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,880 tells you those are only $50,000 around. 436 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:24,880 They are substantially more than that. 437 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,880 And thanks to Ukrainian hacktivists, we sometimes know 438 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,920 exactly how much substantially more is. 439 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:36,760 That's a totally different, different episode. 440 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,960 But and they have relatively small warheads, but it this is 441 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:49,760 low cost mass and something at the US Department of Defence is 442 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:55,840 well behind on NATO is well behind on it is the ability to 443 00:27:55,840 --> 00:28:01,720 put a lot of things up and some of them are going to get 444 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:06,840 through. So it's almost akin to the 1000 445 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:12,960 bomber raids against Cologne to use something from Royal Air 446 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:14,760 Force history. But I will point out, I looked 447 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:19,760 at those 1000 bombers were launched 1000 bombers did not 448 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,760 make it over Cologne fact 1000 bombers didn't even make it to 449 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:25,840 Germany. There were large numbers that 450 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,560 that aborted prior to take off because they were pulling every 451 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,960 bomber even out of training squadrons, even things that were 452 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:37,640 only notionally bombers. So you know, there there is a 453 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,520 saying that the bomber will always get through. 454 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:46,120 It's often misattributed, but it was a pre World War thought. 455 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,960 And if you have enough of them, something will always get 456 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,280 through. It's like firing 1000 rounds 457 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,080 down range. You're going to hit something. 458 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:03,600 Maybe not what you're aiming at, but there is some value. 459 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,400 And this is maybe we do another discussion of low cost mass at 460 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,560 some point in the future, but this is one of those things 461 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:20,360 where the Western powers have gone to exquisite and precision 462 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,560 and everything else and those have its place. 463 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:29,960 But the Shahed 136 and its forerunner the Shahed 131, those 464 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,440 were somebody else that did that. 465 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,200 And that was the first real matching of some degree of 466 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:42,040 precision using satellite navigation and a low cost 467 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:47,800 manufacturing method. That is the Iranian aerospace 468 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:52,000 industry. That is something that was built 469 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,320 for them by the US in the 60s and 70s. 470 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,840 But the Iranians have had an aerospace industry since the 471 00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:02,320 1920s. So they took what they had and 472 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,240 some element of what they needed to do and they added precision. 473 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,080 They kept low cost and because it's something easy for their 474 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:09,960 industrial base to do, they could produce them in large 475 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,800 numbers. The Russians produce them in the 476 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,720 larger numbers because again, it is something within the 477 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,320 capability of their industrial base, completely supported by 478 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,840 China. China provides a lot of the 479 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,200 electronics, but if you look at the she had 136, the Goran 2, 480 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,560 the majority electronics in that are Western and the majority of 481 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,560 the Western electronics are American because they are civil 482 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,680 use components. There's a conflict. 483 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,840 Armament Research is the name of the website and the think tank 484 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,720 that does this kind of thing and they're amazing. 485 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:48,400 But in any case, the the you throw enough of something, it 486 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,080 will always get through. It's a large salvo size.