1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,520 Welcome back to Finding the Edge Podcast. 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:04,400 I'm Garrett Boyam, joined with Robert Frey. 3 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:10,200 And today we're going to talk about some of the anomalies with 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:14,760 projections and some guys who outperformed them this past 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,200 season. And you know, just seeing like 6 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:22,000 what kind of what can we deduct or deduce, I should say, what 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:25,600 can we deduce from those guys and how they were able to 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,600 outperform those projections? And one of the guys that I 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,520 wanted to really look at or I think we're going to start the 10 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,920 conversation with is Cody Bellinger. 11 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:38,040 Because I've it's just been fun for me to watch him this year 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:42,040 because I've seen more adjustability from him that's 13 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:46,600 functional. And so that's that's kind of, I 14 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,520 guess where at least for me, he started my following him and 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:52,200 then it turns out he had a really great year. 16 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,120 I just remember seeing a couple of swings and I'm like, oh, 17 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,960 that's that kind of fits the Caleb Abney model of breaking 18 00:00:59,960 --> 00:01:04,680 the rules, doing things. And so I guess today I wanted to 19 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,600 kind of look at some of that because I wanted to see you know 20 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:14,320 looking at stat cast what his, what some of his expected stats 21 00:01:14,320 --> 00:01:35,400 were. You know, and it was kind of 22 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,760 interesting to me just looking at some of this stuff like 23 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:43,040 expected weighted on base, generally speaking, not for 24 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,680 everybody, but for a lot of guys it ended up matching pretty 25 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:52,240 close to like their batting average in some ways. 26 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,120 I they they must be fairly correlated. 27 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,720 Yeah, to the, for the most part, they seem correlated and then 28 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:06,080 obviously there's some things. So like in recent years as of 29 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:12,040 2019, Statcast decided to change its ex global formula. 30 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:16,440 So from 2015 to 2018, it was just essentially exit velocity 31 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,240 and logical, those two variables. 32 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:23,800 However, from 2019 to present they also incorporated a bad or 33 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,400 seasonal Sprint speed, so that way they can adjust for 34 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,320 different speeds. Because if a topped or a weekly 35 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:36,920 hit ground ball is hit, you know a runner like Corbin Carroll and 36 00:02:36,920 --> 00:02:41,760 a rookie of the year is more likely to get a hit on those 37 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:48,160 plays, whereas a bigger player like say Pablo Sandoval is not. 38 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:53,720 It might be where in a situation where or we can think of a more 39 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,400 recent player because I'm not sure if Sandoval played this 40 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,120 past season. But we can think of a guy like 41 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:06,600 Franco Reyes somewhere along those lines are like a Miguel 42 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:11,840 Sano since we're, you know on that time like he's a bigger guy 43 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:16,920 so he's comparing like Sano to Corbin Carroll. 44 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,040 You know, Sano is probably more likely to hit the ball harder, 45 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:27,240 but for those weekly hit balls or topped balls, per Statcas's 46 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:32,280 kind of barrel classification, Corbin Carroll's more likely to 47 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,240 beat those out. So they felt like that should 48 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:41,480 have been factored as well. So that's why I think in recent 49 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,680 years it's starting to get more and more detailed towards, you 50 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,480 know, a runner's speed rather than just hitting the ball hard. 51 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,000 Well, and then for me, you know, going back to Bellinger, that 52 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,240 was something that clearly came up when I was looking at the 53 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,920 dexterity of his hitting ability. 54 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,760 There were some balls that became hits because simply 55 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,720 because of his speed. For other guys, those would have 56 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,000 been outs. The other element of it too, not 57 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,040 that Bellinger is slow, but he's also left-handed, right? 58 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:19,760 So the speed that he has gets a a little boost just to the sheer 59 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,080 fact that he he's left-handed. So then again somebody a 60 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,520 right-hander with the same speed might not end up being able to 61 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,960 be safe on some of those. There's other things that too 62 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,000 though, like because Luisa Rise is not that fast and there are a 63 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,880 couple of hits that they gave him at least early in the 64 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:40,040 season, that there's a hard ground ball to 2nd or whatever. 65 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,480 Guy bobbled it, threw it, and he was safe. 66 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,680 Oh, he threw it, it bounced and then the first baseman didn't 67 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:52,000 field it or catch it and he was safe, but it wasn't because the 68 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,680 ball had bounced and he caught it. 69 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:55,800 He would have been out. So to me that's an error. 70 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,640 And I don't know why they classified it as a hit because 71 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:03,600 he was going to be out if if the if the first baseman have had 72 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,400 actually caught the ball instead of missing it. 73 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,400 So there's small things like that, but there are other little 74 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,280 things like Luisa rise again not being. 75 00:05:11,280 --> 00:05:13,720 I don't know where he ranks in the Sprint speed, but it's not 76 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,800 it's not elite by any means. As far as I can tell, he's not 77 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,200 known as being. Extremely fast baseball, so 78 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:26,360 Bonds leader sprints free leaderboard of of players 79 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,760 without at least 100 competitive runs. 80 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:33,960 IE you know whether or not jogging things like that. 81 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:38,320 Competitive runs. Cody Bellinger is 72nd, Luisa 82 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:44,200 Rias is 200 and 35th. The average Sprint speed in the 83 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:48,560 MLB is 27 feet per second. Luis Soraas was slightly below 84 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:53,720 average at 26.1 feet per second and Cody Bellinger was above 85 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,840 average at 28.3 feet per second and. 86 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,880 That's, that's where I think it's kind of interesting to me 87 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:07,920 that A Rise is still able to beat out some of those, some of 88 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,680 those infield hits. But I think that like I remember 89 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,200 reading a long time ago, I think in one of the strength and 90 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,120 conditioning books that I found for baseball, that everybody is 91 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,880 fast. Like there's a minimum speed 92 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,560 that a guy needs to be able to play at in professional baseball 93 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,280 in order to get enough hits, even the big guys. 94 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:31,080 So even the big guys are relatively fast because if not, 95 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:35,920 they would not be able to hit at a high or get on base enough if 96 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,440 they were too slow. And so even the the slow guys 97 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,080 can get down the line fast enough to beat out certain 98 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:46,160 infield singles. And so I think that to me is how 99 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,680 I explain well Luis Arise isn't that fast yet he hit some balls 100 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,240 in the infield that goes straight to fielders and then 101 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,160 he's somehow able to be safe. So to me that says he's not that 102 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:57,880 slow. But I think that's just a A 103 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,560 we're talking about a relative right, when we're trying to 104 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,120 compare players, right. That's where this factors in. 105 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,040 But at the same point, I think we all have to recognize that, 106 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:13,080 you know every guy who plays in the in MLB baseball, like unless 107 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,120 you're probably at the bottom of the barrel, like you're probably 108 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:21,440 you're probably fast enough. But to your point, because X 109 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:28,520 welba for Luisa, Luisa Rise is what came in at 5 or 353 and his 110 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,720 batting average was 354. So I thought that was pretty, 111 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,800 pretty cool to see like how close those two things got to 112 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,920 each other. I mean his expecting batting 113 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:40,960 average, he outperformed his expecting batting average. 114 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,520 You know, going back to, you know, the expected stats. 115 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,760 I thought that was kind of interesting like I don't know 116 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:50,360 how accurate expected batting average actually is relative to 117 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,000 what guys usually end up at. And so I don't see this is kind 118 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,200 of the thing with like the expected stats like how much, 119 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,000 how much, how much do you sit there and go Oh well he actually 120 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,720 he over performed and it's like well, I don't, I don't really 121 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,840 think so. Like if you look at if we're 122 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,280 just talking about a rise in what I watched, if you look at 123 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,360 the launch angle that he created, it gave him the 124 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,840 greatest opportunity to get a lot of those hits. 125 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:24,520 And then you know I was watching too the IT said when they were 126 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,360 playing the twins, they tried to pitch him up and in. 127 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,680 But you could see that this year he, he hit a lot of those balls 128 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,080 that were up well, well enough for hits. 129 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,360 Like I want to say I saw multiple and I didn't get to 130 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:40,640 watch all of his hits, but I saw, you know, at least 5-5 131 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,440 balls up in the zone that he hit. 132 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,560 Well, fastballs too. So I mean nothing that was like 133 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,040 super high velocity, high spin. But still, the fact that he's 134 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,120 able to get to those pitches tells me that this dude is super 135 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,360 hard to to pitch to because especially early in the year, I 136 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,560 didn't get to watch them later in the year, but early in the 137 00:08:57,560 --> 00:08:59,480 year they were hitting him with a lot of fastballs. 138 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:03,080 Yeah. So anyways, I'm gonna repeat 139 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,480 that just for the 'cause I got a stupid noise that popped up in 140 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,880 there early in the year. Luis Arise got a lot of 141 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:11,040 fastballs. He was hitting a lot of 142 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,120 fastballs. He did start to see more 143 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,720 breaking balls, I think later in the year, but early in the year 144 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,240 he was seeing a lot of fastballs and and hitting the fastballs. 145 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:23,960 So I thought that was kind of interesting to note when it came 146 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:30,120 to to like how what what is he getting his hits on. 147 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,240 And I think that's another question to ask too. 148 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,880 If we're, especially if we're trying to look at, OK, how from, 149 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:40,480 from an ecological perspective, how dexterous is a player How 150 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:45,480 how, how much. Yeah, I think dexterity is 151 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,920 probably how masterful. I'm trying to figure out another 152 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,240 word for for people who aren't as familiar with like, what's 153 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,360 dexterity right. The ability to display. 154 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,560 I'm going to say it this way. The ability to display 155 00:09:57,560 --> 00:10:01,240 functional solutions under a myriad of different conditions 156 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:04,800 so he's able to have success under a wide range of 157 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,600 conditions. Meaning, OK, so we can hit 158 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,400 handle the fastball, but OK, what type of fastball? 159 00:10:10,560 --> 00:10:11,120 Right? Is it middle? 160 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:12,560 Middle. Is it away? 161 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,440 Is it up? Like, is there certain areas 162 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,880 that he struggles with? Arise seems to display that he 163 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,400 can handle a large range of fastballs, but not only 164 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,040 fastballs but breaking balls. This is the same thing too too 165 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,240 with with Bellinger. I saw it more with Bellinger 166 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,600 because he had he got more breaking balls a lot. 167 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:31,800 There were of the video clip that I put up. 168 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:37,240 I think it was about fourteen of those or of like showing his 169 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,240 adjustability in his swing. He got fourteen hits and two K 170 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,840 counts and two straight counts and a lot of those were breaking 171 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,120 balls. Not all of them, but a lot of 172 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:52,080 them were breaking balls and that to me says quite a bit as 173 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,640 far as your ability and what you can do on the field. 174 00:10:54,680 --> 00:10:56,920 And that makes you a a dangerous and a potent hitter. 175 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,480 And then I think that's part of what allowed him to to be the 176 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,840 comeback player of the year. Absolutely. 177 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,640 And I mean another way to look at it too is like you said, you 178 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,920 know, 14 hits with two chart counts like and we go back to 179 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,200 like X Lobo versus Lobo. So, like, according to Baseball 180 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:19,000 Savon, his XO was 327, his Lobo was 370. 181 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:24,800 So like, he significantly outperformed his expected Wilba. 182 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,600 And a lot of that was, you know, middle pitches. 183 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:32,720 So again on Baseball Savant, his ex Wilba on pitches middle, 184 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:37,080 away, 412 middle, middle, 379 middle and 3:41. 185 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:43,440 However, he performed 475 middle away, 520 middle, middle, 445 186 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,560 middle end. And a lot of that too is like 187 00:11:46,560 --> 00:11:49,640 you said like he had so many two strike hits. 188 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:54,200 I think part of it, like you said with with his dexterity for 189 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:59,320 Rias but similar with Cody Bellinger is being able to be 190 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:03,080 you know adaptable and attuned to the specifying information of 191 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,560 OK, I'm likely getting a breaking ball here. 192 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:09,560 I don't have to put a an aggressive swing. 193 00:12:09,560 --> 00:12:13,480 I need I need to put a swing that is likely to result in a 194 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,200 hit, or a swing that allows me just to put the ball in play. 195 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:24,800 I think for me, you know, I'm gonna, I'm gonna bristle a 196 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:29,160 little bit at the whole anticipation. 197 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,640 Not that I think guys don't anticipate, but I think it's 198 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,400 hard unless, I mean there is enough at the professional level 199 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:42,200 to to know guys tendencies to to have a good idea what's going to 200 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,040 be thrown here. But I think a lot of it can be 201 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,800 handled by simply changing your approach. 202 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:52,440 So you know if you shift your intention and you have an 203 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,240 approach of OK I'm in a two strike you know I'm going to 204 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,160 take a two strike approach meaning OK I'm not going to try 205 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,000 swing out of my shoes. I for me the way that I think of 206 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,960 a two strike of approach is I liken it to a hit and run. 207 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,720 But a hit and run where where you don't have to swing but the 208 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:14,840 intention is is I'm going to try stay on this ball and like 209 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,000 because to me that's what it looks like is he's staying on 210 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,920 the ball and he's being smooth and he's not trying to hit it as 211 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,560 hard as he can. He's just trying to go bat or 212 00:13:23,560 --> 00:13:29,480 bat the ball and just be really smooth and and move however he 213 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,240 has to to be able to hit the baseball. 214 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:37,800 And so that's where for me when I'm looking at it and just even 215 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,480 to this is where I like Luis, arise and I wanted to look and I 216 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:43,960 haven't gotten there yet but at some point I want to get through 217 00:13:44,560 --> 00:13:48,440 you know all of Acunia and like all the guys that hit really 218 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:52,440 well this year at the top and just watch you know how they 219 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,120 went about it, 'cause I think every guy is different. 220 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,760 But anyways the conclusion that I've come to based upon these 221 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:01,880 two guys, Bellinger and Arise is that and This is why I liked. 222 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,120 I really like Bellinger is that if you can hit a rising line 223 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:09,840 drive with it with within a good within a good launch angle the 224 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,520 IT doesn't. And by a rising line drive I 225 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,480 mean one that clears the the infielders. 226 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,720 Like if they jump it's either really hard for them to catch it 227 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:23,080 or they can't catch it at all. And so if you can do that then 228 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,840 you're going to give yourself a really good chance to get on 229 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,040 base as far as like hitting the ball and it. 230 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,880 And when I when I think about it and as far as what was popular 231 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:34,880 and I don't, I don't know if it's still popular. 232 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,920 I think it's still there but it's not as popular of the whole 233 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,840 notion of try to hit the ball in the air and as far as you can 234 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,280 And and then we're kind of at at one point. 235 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,320 Right. Because MLB is trying to change 236 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,520 this and not have the game be just three true outcomes of you 237 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,400 know hit the ball out of the park strikeout or I don't know 238 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:55,560 walk. I can't remember. 239 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,360 Is that what was the third one or the three true outcomes? 240 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,960 Is it basically like home run, strikeout or what was the what 241 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,320 was the 3rd? One slash hit by pitch. 242 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:11,240 Yeah, right. And so this is where, you know 243 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,120 and I've also heard this too of listening to some other guys 244 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,120 talk about like, OK, if we strike out at too high of a 245 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,840 clip, even though we're hitting a bunch of runs, we start to 246 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:22,600 hurt our run value, you know, and and so there is there's a 247 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,040 level of like there's value and This is why it was cool. 248 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,480 Arise was was very interesting because if you start looking at 249 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:34,880 his stat line now, I don't think this year his yeah his runs were 250 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:41,720 down relative to with the twins no it doesn't have RB is on here 251 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:49,960 the one that I'm looking at do you have RB is on your your your 252 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:55,000 expenses Yeah for what? He had 69 RB IS. 253 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,120 Nice. How much do you have for 2022? 254 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,280 He had 49. OK, so he had more RB is this 255 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,680 year than he did last year. OK. 256 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:10,160 Cuz to me part of the value of a player now, yes, it all, it all 257 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,760 depends upon where you are in the lineup and who's on base. 258 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,520 But it's a question of during your the given the number of 259 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:19,000 opportunities that you have, how, how well are you able to 260 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:20,600 capitalize on those opportunities? 261 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,080 I don't know if there's a stat for that. 262 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,520 I mean, there's probably runners in batting average and running 263 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,680 runners in scoring position, right, Because that would kind 264 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,880 of probably capture that. But, like to me, these are the 265 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,200 ways that matter. I want to say another way you 266 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,360 could capture is when probability added. 267 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:41,520 OK, because that's that's where it's like, you know, a guy like 268 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:45,520 Luis arise, I think would people sleep on because of the fact 269 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:49,240 that he doesn't hit for for power, he doesn't really slug, 270 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,920 you know, And they're like, you know, singles aren't really that 271 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,120 worth it. But it's like depends. 272 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,720 It depends, right. You know, everybody's big on 273 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,560 like on base. Well you know singles are the 274 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:05,040 like, yeah they're not that much different than a walk but you 275 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,480 know on a walk is a sure thing but still at the same point 276 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,800 you're still on base. And if you got a guy in scoring 277 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:16,200 position and a base open at first, a walk ain't going to 278 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:20,560 score you that run, you know, or even 2 bases open like you need, 279 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:24,040 you need three walks in a row to get you to get you a run. 280 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:29,360 So like a hit being able to put the ball in play and score the 281 00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:34,120 run is is huge because I mean so that's that's where I I look at. 282 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,480 For me when I look at a guy like arise who hits for average. 283 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,560 I want to look at his runs and his RB is because to me those 284 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,040 two things combined together tell me how much offensive 285 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:50,640 production like is it just you know he hits really well when 286 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,120 nobody's on base and you know like it's just you're not really 287 00:17:54,120 --> 00:17:56,360 contributing that much you only you only hit when there's no 288 00:17:56,360 --> 00:17:59,680 pressure. But if you're if you're scoring, 289 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,160 if you're scoring enough runs for the team then I think it's 290 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:08,440 it washes that whole you know I guess you know at one point the 291 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:12,840 the the new school analytics way of looking at it of you know 292 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,440 average is kind of not not really that valuable and I just 293 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:20,800 I I think I think there's some level of truth to it to it but I 294 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,920 don't I I don't I don't think you can completely dismiss 295 00:18:24,120 --> 00:18:27,440 looking at batting average. Yeah. 296 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:32,000 But there's also that that side of, OK, if you want to look at 297 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,960 production in terms of runs and RBIs, those are both context 298 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:39,800 dependent because for you to score runs, you need that are 299 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:46,040 not home run related, right? You need guys behind you to be 300 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,240 able to put the ball in play and move you around. 301 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,280 And then for you to have RBIs on the same breath, you need the 302 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,000 guys in front of you to get on base. 303 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,880 So that's why there's kind of this this disconnect because it 304 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:06,360 is dependent whereas you know some analytics just say like we 305 00:19:06,360 --> 00:19:09,880 can't rely on that dependency. Well, here's, here's, here's my 306 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,760 thought on how you kind of you do the analysis because I look 307 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,480 at the Twins, OK. And so the Twins last year, 308 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,840 their offense probably wasn't the highest scoring in baseball, 309 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,400 right. But you look at it relative. 310 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,840 OK, so you. So when I looked at the team 311 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:30,080 last year, I looked at, OK, where were all our runs coming 312 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,600 from, right? Even though Luis arises numbers 313 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:38,440 and runs well, actually a little bit higher in 2022. 314 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,080 And then his RBIs were a little bit lower, right? 315 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,880 So that says that when Arise was hitting, there weren't as many 316 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,920 opportunities for him to hit hit guys in, but he was, if he was 317 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,920 getting on base, he was scoring at a decent clip, higher at a 318 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:55,720 higher clip than he was in 2023. You know. 319 00:19:55,720 --> 00:20:01,440 And so this is where I I look at it in the sense of relative he 320 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,800 was, he was the top, he was either the he was the one that 321 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,880 was scoring the most runs for the team and Korea was second or 322 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,200 Korea was first and then Arise was right behind him. 323 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:15,280 So when you look at it relative to just your team because that's 324 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,720 the context that matters and you begin to see for that team are 325 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,280 you, who is the one for your team that's scoring all your 326 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,200 runs? Who's the one who's driving them 327 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,320 all in? And that you can. 328 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:30,320 That to me is a fair enough analysis of it's you can't start 329 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,360 comparing across the league or whatever because to your point, 330 00:20:33,360 --> 00:20:35,640 it's context dependent. So therefore you have to look at 331 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:40,120 it within the context that these numbers actually occur and then 332 00:20:40,120 --> 00:20:42,880 I think you can get a better sense of how much value can a 333 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,440 player provide in a team setting. 334 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,680 And so there's there's other stats we can look at too. 335 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,680 So like runs create is a good one that you mentioned. 336 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,840 So like and that does include, you know, scoring runs as well, 337 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,280 Not just creating runs by hitting, but scoring. 338 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,360 You want to you want to flesh that out a little bit more of 339 00:21:01,360 --> 00:21:05,120 like what What goes into runs created what? 340 00:21:05,120 --> 00:21:06,200 What makes up? How? 341 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,760 How do we come up with that number? 342 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,440 Yeah. So like, we can do it. 343 00:21:12,360 --> 00:21:16,120 There's actually like a few different ways to calculate it. 344 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,440 And this was from Bill James. It's like the most simplest way 345 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:26,440 is hits plus walks multiplied by total basis divided by at bats 346 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,920 plus walks. And that is the most simplest 347 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:35,400 way of calculating. Now if you want to get into more 348 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,080 advanced stuff. So like there's a stolen base 349 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,800 version of it where it multiplies by a stolen base 350 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,960 factor, and then the technical one is multiplying by a factor 351 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:51,720 of walks plus hit by pitches plus the times you have SAC 352 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:56,440 buns, sacrifice flies, stolen bases, and then it also 353 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:03,240 negatively waits you for hitting into double plays as well, 354 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,400 because you're. And it's like somebody like 355 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:10,240 Correa, because I felt like he hit into it a decent number of. 356 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,400 Yeah, so like that would negatively affect him on that on 357 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,440 that version. Another way to look at it, and 358 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,760 you're going to like this because the two people were 359 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:23,960 talking about Araya's 14th in the MLB last year amongst 360 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:29,080 qualified hitters, Ballinger 15th in the MLB last year 361 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,320 amongst qualified hitters and weighted runs above average. 362 00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:38,880 And that is based on woba. So it's taking that player's 363 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,680 individual woba subtracting from the league woba. 364 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,200 So Bellinger's was around 370, the league woba's around 3:20, 365 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,480 so he gets 50 points boost. And then the woba scale, which 366 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:55,640 just essentially is putting it on the same scale as OBP, so it 367 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,440 could be red like OBP and multiplying by the number of 368 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,960 PA's. And so it just basically just 369 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,600 measures the amount of offensive runs a player contributes to 370 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,400 their team compared to the average player. 371 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:14,000 And with that being said, so Arias 25.9 weighted runs above 372 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,400 average. Cody Bellinger 23.9 weighted 373 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,760 Runs above average again 14th and 15th and. 374 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,160 OK, who is above them? Do you do you have, do you have 375 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:30,440 Can you shoot me a a thing a thing that has this list or just 376 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,240 share it share screen it, 'cause I I don't like part of me. 377 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,760 I'm curious who's who's up there higher than that. 378 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,000 I mean. I mean, look, Ronald Lacuna 379 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,360 Junior. Like almost 100 and. 50 runs, 380 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,680 almost 150 runs all on his own. Oh my gosh, that's a lot. 381 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,160 Damn Zacunia. 'S number one. 382 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:57,560 OK. As he should be at 66.7, Otani 383 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:04,000 is #2 at 57.3. And I I shared this with you. 384 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:09,480 That's his third Mookie. That's his 3rd 56.5. 385 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:14,240 But another way to think about this, too, that the top two 386 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,840 players in the, OR I should say the top players in their 387 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:22,040 respective leagues and WRAA, One MVP, Acunia and the National 388 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,400 League of Tiny and the American League. 389 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,880 Mookie Betts was 56.5. Matt Olson 56.4. 390 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:34,080 Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, Corey Seeger, Yandi Diaz, 391 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,600 Marcelo Zuno, Kyle Tucker, Bryce Harper, Corbin Carroll and 392 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,880 Austin Riley are the 13 names above both Aryas and Ballinger. 393 00:24:43,360 --> 00:24:46,200 I think what's? That's not a light list. 394 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,040 No. OK. 395 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:53,760 So let's let's talk about Juan Soto, I think yeah, Juan Soto 396 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:59,000 and I guess 2 Ozuna could be one, although the slug there 397 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,360 makes sense for because I'm one Yep slug there is decent. 398 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,600 So I'm trying to figure out where where is all this this run 399 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,440 production coming from is some. OK. 400 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:14,400 So his OPS is 9/9/30, so that's part of it, right. 401 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:19,560 Getting on base, his OPS is 900 or nine O 5. 402 00:25:20,120 --> 00:25:24,400 So this is where I'm I'm trying to understand, OK, where, how 403 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:28,000 are they creating, how are they creating this, this, this run 404 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:29,840 value? Because to me, what's 405 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,760 interesting is that there's multiple different ways. 406 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,520 You see a lot of guys with higher averages, but you know 407 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,720 Azuna and Soto, they kind of are on the lower end of the average 408 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:45,680 side, you know, because it it felt like Soto kind of struggled 409 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,080 this year, like swinging the bat, you know, his walks were 410 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,880 always there, but swinging the bat, making contact was it was a 411 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:57,480 down year for him or doing something hitting it well enough 412 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,080 to get hits. And so I guess what, what is 413 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,200 your assessment as far as like OK, how are they still, despite 414 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:09,160 the fact of not doing as much with the BAT as in other years, 415 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,560 how are they still creating run value? 416 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,200 So in Soto's case, I feel like like you said, the walks are 417 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,600 always there, so he's still getting on base via walks and 418 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,200 also the. Speed ain't it Ain't super, 419 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,240 super crazy either. Yeah, so terribly slow, but so. 420 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,560 Like having guys like Machado and Kronenworth, I think behind 421 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:37,520 him, you know that helped with you know the the run production 422 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,720 for him. Just getting solely on base. 423 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:45,080 Ozuna in his case, I think he had and this is where like we 424 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:50,040 can maybe build on this stat and say like how many opportunities 425 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,560 did Ozuna have compared to the average player of runners on 426 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:58,240 base. Because Ozuna was very likely to 427 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:03,160 have guys like Acuna, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, guys in the 428 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:09,120 top 13 of this list on base ahead of him to be able to drive 429 00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:14,280 in these runs. So now that to me it plays into 430 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,240 OK, if we're we're talking about OK, all right. 431 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,440 Do I want a guy like Ozuna. You know how valuable will he be 432 00:27:25,120 --> 00:27:28,840 to this ballclub if I don't have guys who can get on base in 433 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,440 front of him? Like, it's not that he won't be 434 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,440 valuable, but you're not going to see he's not going to create 435 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,200 as many runs for us because he's there's not going to be as many 436 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,120 opportunities because I almost feel like and some of these 437 00:27:40,120 --> 00:27:44,680 things, whereas like a guy like arise, he can create 438 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,920 opportunities because he's going to get on base enough, right, 439 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,240 for for people to drive him in. Whereas you know, like you're 440 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,960 talking about like, I wonder if there's a way to parse through 441 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:58,400 the numbers of like, OK, this guy really his his big upside is 442 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,480 if we have guys on, he's really good at driving them in. 443 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:06,000 But on the flip side, if he's not getting on base enough and 444 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,840 there's not enough people to get on in front of him, his 445 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,120 offensive value isn't as strong for our team. 446 00:28:12,120 --> 00:28:15,920 Like our team needs other pieces in order to support what this 447 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,440 hitter actually brings to the table. 448 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,920 Right. And so another way to look at. 449 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:27,880 I know I was trying to pull it out, but like, I remember going 450 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:32,600 back to 2013 when the Cardinals made the World Series, someone 451 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,160 who wasn't really known as a great hitter on his own, Alan 452 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,760 Craig. That year he had. 453 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,160 I don't know the exact number, but I remember at some point in 454 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:47,160 the season he was hitting over 400 with runners in scoring 455 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:51,640 position and it's like that. That alone can make him 456 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,440 valuable. But then again like OK after 457 00:28:55,440 --> 00:29:01,080 after the season he was traded, went to Boston and like he 458 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,360 didn't have as many opportunities and that kind of 459 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,920 like led to his downfall so to speak. 460 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:11,200 But he, you know, took advantage of opportunities when there were 461 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,840 runners on and they specifically in scoring position. 462 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,480 So he liked those affordances because there are different 463 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,920 affordances with runners on, on, on base than when there aren't. 464 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,080 And maybe like, you know, the thought process could change. 465 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:32,520 It's like, hey, you know, like it's common, common knowledge. 466 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,480 I wouldn't say common knowledge, but for the most part the 467 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,600 pitchers are less likely to throw breaking balls in the dirt 468 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:46,400 with a runner on third base. So maybe in Craig's mind, you 469 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,560 know, with a runner on 30, he's like, I know I'm not getting a 470 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,240 breaking ball. What, are you going to hang it? 471 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,280 He's going to hang it. I'm getting better than breaking 472 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:59,280 balls to hit. Hanging, yeah, Or better break 473 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,040 balls hit. And as like a Major League 474 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,840 player, like you know you're going to hit that and hit that 475 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,400 well. I mean two, there's some of it 476 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,560 too of like and this is where I think it's you can, you can kind 477 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,040 of still find it in the analysis, right, just without 478 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,400 seeing video. But there are some guys, right, 479 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,560 that they just hit certain balls better and it has to be in terms 480 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,280 of location, right. Some guys the swings naturally 481 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,000 work better with breaking balls like it just the ball just seems 482 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,640 to go right into their swing. And so usually though from my 483 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,960 experience of seeing those like that's those are balls that are 484 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:34,080 just like kind of in the middle of the zone you know and and so 485 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,040 whether it's like middle away or whatever it's it's still those 486 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,240 balls just kind of fall right into their swing path. 487 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:44,040 And so to your point I think it there is something to be said 488 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,880 about it like if you got a guy on 3rd less than two outs or 489 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:52,600 whatever even with two outs like getting a a breaking ball that's 490 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:58,120 up is a is a much more hitable pitch that guys can do something 491 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,160 with. So yeah. 492 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,640 Anyways, I think I think that's a good, good observation. 493 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:08,960 Yeah, I mean it just depends on how many opportunities to get 494 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:13,000 like with Craig, he had, especially in 2000, you know, 495 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,080 say 2011, he had the affordance of having a guy like Albert 496 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:22,280 Poulos ahead of him and a guy who would frequently be on base 497 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:28,360 or he would, you know, hit for extra bases quite a bit, not 498 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,600 including home runs obviously, but having guys like that. 499 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:37,040 And then you add in another guy like Matt Holiday, you know, 500 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:44,640 patching those together. So like in in Ozuna's case, you 501 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,360 know this is where we can kind of look at go dig deeper in the 502 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:52,120 day and say like OK, he might be up here a lot, but how many 503 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,440 opportunities do you have where various runners on base slash in 504 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,920 scoring position? Because again, he had guys like 505 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,360 Austin Riley and Cooney and Matt Olson all in front of them, and 506 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,680 they all were wildly successful this season with the bat. 507 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,560 The other thing too. I'm just looking at some of the 508 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,120 other numbers here. What's interesting to me? 509 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:22,840 OK. Corbin Carroll, you know he he 510 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:28,040 was hitting over 300 at some points I think, but his walk 511 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,280 right, BB percentage, that's walk right. 512 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,200 Yeah. OK. 513 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:38,920 So his walk rate is is kind of on the lower end of of guys and 514 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,960 I think that's kind of interesting that he was still be 515 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:47,240 able to create the run value that he was even though like he 516 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:53,000 seemed more like a a contact guy like kind of like a, a, a Quan 517 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,520 and I don't know if I'm pronouncing his. 518 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:59,800 Name from Cleveland. Yeah, and but I mean, Quan did 519 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,360 not have the same year this year that he didn't. 520 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,720 You know, the other year, I don't. 521 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:06,960 I don't know if it's because guys started figuring out how to 522 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,440 pitch to him or there's something else going on, maybe 523 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:10,760 an injury or something like that. 524 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,880 But it's kind of interesting to me. 525 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:18,280 I think maybe he slugged at a decent percentage, so maybe he 526 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:23,280 actually has more pop than Quan, you know, 'cause that was kind 527 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:24,240 of. The other thing that was kind of 528 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,880 interesting to watch with with Carol is despite the kind of 529 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,880 interesting nature to his swing, like there, it seemed a little 530 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,360 like the ball would kind of come off his bat a little bit more 531 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,760 I'd have to look at. Like, I wonder if you have 532 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,800 another hard hit percentages in here. 533 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,080 I wonder what his average exit below was, 'cause it's got to be 534 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,760 more than a rise, which is interesting to watch. 535 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,960 A lot of a rise's hits, though, are like in the 92 to 96 range. 536 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,280 So it's not like he's hitting it super soft. 537 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,560 I mean, but at the same point you're not seeing as many 100 538 00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,120 balls over a hit over 100 from a rise. 539 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:04,880 And we we talked about in the past like if you go on Savant 540 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:10,120 and find like exit be the launch angles, hit probabilities, a lot 541 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,360 of them are in that kind of like middle to hard range with that 542 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,840 launch angle that's slightly above the infield because you 543 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,679 hit it hard enough to hit over the infield at a high enough 544 00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:23,920 angle, but not hard enough that it stays up long enough for the 545 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,280 outfield to come and catch it. But the other thing's that big 546 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:31,000 difference for Araya's compared to yes, compared to others. 547 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,280 The one thing to note on that that I've started to think about 548 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,880 is that it's different at the young, at the lower levels, OK, 549 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,440 'cause the outfielders don't play at the same depth, even in 550 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:47,679 college, you know, if like, 'cause I think sometimes you 551 00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:51,040 know as guys from, you know, being at a junior college, it 552 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:56,600 depends what the the opposing team thinks you know or like the 553 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,160 types of players that they play against. 554 00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,640 Cause like, obviously if we're playing a a team that has more 555 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:03,120 powerful bats, we're going to play deeper. 556 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:07,440 But like when I was at the D1 level, like a lot of us, a lot 557 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:11,000 of our guys, especially down the in the corners, left field 558 00:35:11,240 --> 00:35:13,400 especially, but I even think too probably a little bit in right 559 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,560 field, like they're pretty standing pretty darn close to 560 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,320 the warning track, you know what I mean? 561 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,400 And so if you're standing pretty close to the warning track, 562 00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,600 there's a lot more of like that low line drive even if you hit 563 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,760 hard, that's going to tend to fall in front of the the 564 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,920 outfielders. But if they're playing in more 565 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,880 at like a standard high school depth, like those are going to 566 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,440 get caught, you know. So that's where I think it's 567 00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:40,880 really interesting that to me the ones are more like you, you 568 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,680 would say the flare burners, those ones tend to always be 569 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,440 safe. And that to me is where I think 570 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,000 it's actually interesting to start looking at launch angle 571 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,280 and exit Velo of like, OK, what do you got to get to 'cause I I 572 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,760 mean, I don't, I have to go back and look for sure. 573 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,000 But I mean off of rap soda, it'll give you some interesting 574 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,040 numbers sometimes of like, hey, we think this is a hit, you 575 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,520 know, a ball hit at 66 with a launch angle of 36, like, OK, 576 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,880 that's not great. That's not a great exit feel and 577 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,440 that's not a great launch angle, but it somehow combines to drop 578 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:12,800 in there. And other times you're like, 579 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:18,480 man, how did that, that only went to to, I don't know, 56 or 580 00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,520 274. And those are outs. 581 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,640 And that's where I think it's very interesting to start like 582 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,640 our ability to gauge distance. This is why, again, going back 583 00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,920 to like the ecological approach, the thing that I draw away from 584 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,200 that, that I think is really important that a lot of us 585 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,440 forget when we start talking about analytics is that the game 586 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,040 is not played. The individual person does not 587 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,320 see the world in numbers. You know we're not walking 588 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,800 around with Google Glass on our eyes and like the you know with 589 00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,040 with like the numbers always like on our eyes and we can see 590 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,960 them and like gauge this. You know it's not the the the 591 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,440 human we understand things in terms of how it relates to us in 592 00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:55,680 terms of distances. Right. 593 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,600 This whole the whole like you know why we're not on like the 594 00:36:58,720 --> 00:37:03,280 the the imperial numbers right are are in feet right. 595 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,400 We understand things in terms of how they relate to our body. 596 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,680 They're in feet and so like that that that to me is like the. 597 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,800 I think we have to remember because that's for me, like you 598 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,320 know, I haven't. I haven't. 599 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:19,200 You can dial in to begin to understand, you know numbers, 600 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,560 but you know, this is where I think it'd be fun to begin to 601 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,120 dial in. OK OK. 602 00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,920 How far is this distance? You know, when I see a ball hit 603 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,040 in the air, how far about did that actually go just by looking 604 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,880 because most dimensions on the field are pretty consistent. 605 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:37,000 You know even if we're talking about the output like This is 606 00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,880 why you know for example rhapsodo the average you know 607 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:47,840 they'll give you a home run if you hit it over 330 feet to to 608 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,520 to any of the corners because most of the corners on most 609 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,920 fields are about 330 feet, right. 610 00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:59,000 And center field they have it. I think rhapsoda has it maybe no 611 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,000 they have it further than that. But like you know 400 feet is 612 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,800 pretty standard to center field. So if you hit it over 400 feet 613 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,320 to center, like you know so there's all this all this stuff 614 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:12,960 is fairly standardize and then you can begin to start judging 615 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:20,040 OK, how far is too far? You know like do I need to at 616 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,080 like change my launch angle? Do I need increase or decrease 617 00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,800 my exit below. These things to me are more of 618 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:30,320 the this is the thing too. Hopefully at some point I can re 619 00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,640 talk to Bobby Tewksbury, 'cause this is the thing that I think 620 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,800 he, he really cares a lot about is like the strategy. 621 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:42,440 Like a lot of times we're going with this whole thing of like, 622 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,920 let's just take one element and like or one strategy. 623 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,960 Let's let's just go all in on this strategy. 624 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:53,080 You know like let's hit home runs all in on this strategy, 625 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,120 you know Whereas it's like yeah but this is, this is like this 626 00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:02,560 is a game where why can't it be as intricate as far as strategy 627 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,200 goes as some of the other sports. 628 00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:06,960 You know, which I think it is and it can be. 629 00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,960 And we we have in some ways sold some of the players short at 630 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,760 times. And maybe it's because like our 631 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,360 lack of coaching ability to be able to get more out of players 632 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:22,560 of like we we end up going for the simpler approaches and maybe 633 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:26,080 they worked at one time. You know when the with the fly 634 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:29,440 ball revolution, you know I think that worked that was 635 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,360 really good for that moment in time. 636 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,600 And the way that I'm going to analogize it is to strength and 637 00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:39,280 conditioning, right. If I want to help somebody like 638 00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:44,120 peak in terms of speed, I can do that really easily If they have, 639 00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,160 if they have been like their programming has been really 640 00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:51,360 strength heavy focused and then if I switch it to more speed 641 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,800 strength, they're going to get a really great response and feel 642 00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,920 super fast and and like powerful and quick. 643 00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,480 But it's all because of the setup And I think that's kind of 644 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,760 the same thing with like the Fly Ball Revolution. 645 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,880 Was everybody was focused on hitting like ground balls to the 646 00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:10,800 backside and low line drives and had really pushy swings and the 647 00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,360 fly ball was demonized. And then the way that pitchers 648 00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,440 you know, attacked hitters was a lot simpler too. 649 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:23,880 And so all these things allowed for that to like that to be a 650 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:28,600 really great strategy for that period of time and like its 651 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:30,800 effectiveness. I think because it's older now 652 00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:34,400 people are developing counter strategies to that you know and 653 00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,400 some of it is just also the advancements in pitching too and 654 00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:42,000 pitching development, you know, velocity and now pitch design, 655 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,800 all these things have come about during that period of time. 656 00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:51,280 And so I think I think we need to be looking for you know 657 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,400 trying to find that edge, you know, so to speak. 658 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:57,000 And I think that's that's where I don't know this is this is 659 00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,440 just my rant right of like why I going to encourage people like 660 00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:04,600 Eco D and now hopefully this this helps for the transition 661 00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:05,840 for what you're about to say too. 662 00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:10,720 And this came up in the Sport movement skill conference, 663 00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,240 listening to some of the talks and and whatnot is how do we 664 00:41:14,240 --> 00:41:20,800 combine the analytics with like these ideas and so like that. 665 00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,800 Hopefully that gives you a a good door to add what you're 666 00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:27,080 going to say I. Mean, I think now we can just 667 00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:32,920 say like I think it's a lot of conversation of OK, you know 668 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:38,400 when we take a look at this movement solution or this type 669 00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,320 of style like what are the results. 670 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:46,720 So you asked earlier about Araya's and Corbin Peril's 671 00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:50,720 average launching or average exit velocity and then I also 672 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:55,160 look at average launching. So, Carol, this policy was 90 673 00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:59,520 miles an hour. Araya's 88 miles an hour. 674 00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,360 But what stood out for them compared to most everyone else 675 00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,320 is they had a slightly higher launch angle at 11°. 676 00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,600 And so now. Who's everybody else? 677 00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,440 Like who are you classifying? Just the the rest of the league 678 00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:13,280 average. Like, what's? 679 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,160 Yeah, the rest of the league average. 680 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,320 So what's the league average launch angle? 681 00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,800 It's right around 7:00. OK, OK. 682 00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,440 So that's that's that's fairly significant, it's like what 4 683 00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,480 four points higher. Yeah, 4° higher. 684 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:38,960 Now the difference between that is OK, if you just took, let's 685 00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:45,120 say Araya's hit the ball every single time 88° with a or 88 686 00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,520 exit. Yeah, 11. 687 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:51,240 Degree line of shamble. He is ex. 688 00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:57,120 His Wobe is expected to be 612. Oh, wow. 689 00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:07,480 Yeah, so with a same thing with a 7° launch angle, it's 522, so 690 00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:12,520 it's a hundred point difference. Now we boosted up to 90 what 691 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:19,520 Corbin Carroll's at 11 degrees 641, so slightly better, but 692 00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:23,080 then if you drop it down to 7° it's five O 3. 693 00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:28,560 So they're they're still relatively good, but having that 694 00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,760 slightly higher launch angle and being able to hit in those exit 695 00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:36,920 V low ranges because then once you get to the harder ones like 696 00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:43,160 we'll look at 100 hundred is 881, but it's still the average 697 00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:49,560 being 7630 at 100°. So it's a lot. 698 00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:52,880 You know, it's one thing to be able to hit the ball hard, but 699 00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:58,080 it's another thing to be able to hit it in a I guess I should 700 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:03,720 say, range that allows you to enhance your opportunities of a 701 00:44:03,720 --> 00:44:06,240 hit. Well, and this is, this is kind 702 00:44:06,240 --> 00:44:09,680 of the thing that I want to kind of ask you about is like this is 703 00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:14,080 to me is this is the part of like OK, expected stats versus 704 00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:18,680 reality, OK. So the expected stat for Corbin 705 00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,760 Carroll is better on on the launch angle, the average launch 706 00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:26,720 angle and exit velocity than a rise. 707 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:31,280 But they're averages. The reality is vastly different. 708 00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:38,160 You have a guy where where? Why don't I see a rise here? 709 00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:42,200 Oh, there he is at 14. OK, you have a rise hitting 354, 710 00:44:42,720 --> 00:44:43,960 right? So because you're talking about 711 00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:48,800 expected batting average, well, his rise is expecting batting 712 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,720 average. Not batting average. 713 00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,080 Oh, wobba wobba. OK. 714 00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,440 Now woba that's weighted on base, right? 715 00:44:58,440 --> 00:44:59,360 So. Yes. 716 00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:04,440 So that would include walks. Well, it would technically be. 717 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,280 Technically it would be woba on contact. 718 00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,880 So that's that's like we're talking like double S triples. 719 00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,360 So you're looking at something that looks like the stat is more 720 00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:20,920 of a like a slugging like OPS type slat stat. 721 00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:27,080 So I should analogize this closer to OPS than I should like 722 00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:28,680 what? What is this comparing to like 723 00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,680 like give me a real stat, you know what I'm saying, like like 724 00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:34,720 actual production, real production Like what? 725 00:45:34,720 --> 00:45:38,440 What do you, what do you compare woba against like expected woba 726 00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,680 versus actual woba? Is there a woba stat? 727 00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:50,360 Yeah, I guess, yeah, it's, it's next to Wade runs above average, 728 00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:51,920 but. Oh, there we go. 729 00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,160 OK. So you had because this is to me 730 00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:03,240 the the OK 370 and I mean they're basically the same 369. 731 00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:08,920 Yeah. And so like looking at it that 732 00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:20,600 way, but you you start to see that they kind of got their in 733 00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:22,720 different ways. And this is like the important 734 00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:30,600 what the importance of standard deviation because Corbin Carroll 735 00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,840 is more likely to hit balls harder and further therefore 736 00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,880 improving his well. But by hitting, you know 737 00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:41,840 especially in that ballpark in in Phoenix, hitting triples 738 00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,840 round runs, especially when you hit it to right center or even 739 00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,880 left center there like you are very likely to be able and with 740 00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:53,400 his speed hit get the third. Whereas Araya's, I guess Miami 741 00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,920 is a pretty good ballpark too but he doesn't quite have the 742 00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:03,280 speed that Carroll does. But is still able to get more 743 00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:09,400 frequent hits with that more lower I guess with that launch 744 00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:14,280 angle and that exit velocity because he's more. 745 00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,360 I guess another way to look at this is accuracy versus 746 00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:24,600 precision, right? A rise is more precise with that 747 00:47:25,240 --> 00:47:27,840 average exit velocity and average launch angle. 748 00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:32,760 Whereas Corbin Carroll, he might be more accurate in the sense 749 00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:36,480 that he's hit basically. Like he might have some that are 750 00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:38,400 weakly hit. He might some have some that are 751 00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:40,760 harder hit. Well, I almost wonder too. 752 00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:42,440 I just think about it in terms of launch angle. 753 00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:48,040 Like I want to say that, OK, just from watching a rise, he's 754 00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:51,840 so consistent in his in his launch angle, whereas I think 755 00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:58,120 like the the standard deviation or the the maybe that's not the 756 00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:03,080 right word, but like the the deviate or the variability, 757 00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:06,040 there's the word I'm looking for the variability within Corbin 758 00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:09,400 Carroll's launch angle is greater than the variability 759 00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:13,360 within arise. Arise is fairly consistent in 760 00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:19,360 his launch angle, whereas I think Carol is either way, up is 761 00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,600 more up here and like, you know what I mean, Cause an average, 762 00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,280 right? Carol might have a ton of ground 763 00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,760 balls that that bring his average down, and his launch 764 00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:32,040 angle might actually be higher, you know, balls in the air, 765 00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:33,320 'cause that might be also what you. 766 00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:37,480 I don't know, because part of it too of like a rise hits enough 767 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,360 ground balls where they're not. I think that's the other 768 00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:44,680 important thing too, 'cause even looking at Bellinger, some of 769 00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,480 his ground balls would have been where a typical second baseman 770 00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,960 or shortstop would be playing. But because they still, this is 771 00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:53,600 where I like it. I like it a lot. 772 00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:56,240 The guys still shift. They still shift in the infield. 773 00:48:56,240 --> 00:48:57,880 They just can't have it as extreme shifts. 774 00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:00,920 And those shifts open up holes that create, because this is the 775 00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,040 thing I think, you know, I didn't like banning the the idea 776 00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:07,680 of banning the shift, but they didn't completely ban the shift. 777 00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:11,240 And I think that's it's it's about modifying the shift to 778 00:49:11,240 --> 00:49:13,400 create the most opportunities for hitters to hit. 779 00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:17,160 And I think what they did and how it's played out, I would say 780 00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,360 they did it correctly. They didn't over constrain it. 781 00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,720 They constrained it enough to afford more hits. 782 00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:28,280 And so that I think is a is a positive there. 783 00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:31,520 And so anyways the so we're kind of where I'm going with that is 784 00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:36,080 that sometimes some of these these balls on the ground, when 785 00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:40,040 they're they're they're hitting it where they're not and that is 786 00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,560 somewhat a skill and that is somewhat a byproduct of how the 787 00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:51,200 opposing team is shifting. And so anyways the to me that's 788 00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:55,240 where I think it's it's interesting to look at some of 789 00:49:55,240 --> 00:49:58,920 the ground balls because some of them are hit hard enough that 790 00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,600 affords them to be hits. And I've always wondered kind of 791 00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:04,200 about that like what's the minimum right. 792 00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:08,800 If I want to, if I want to shoot a ball through the the four hole 793 00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:13,800 or into the four hole, how hard do I have to hit it for the 794 00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,000 second baseman or the first baseman not to be able to go get 795 00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,960 that ball? And from what I've seen if you 796 00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,840 really, truly get it in that hole correctly, I think you can 797 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,840 get it as low you can hit it as low as like in the 60s like 798 00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:29,120 6465. But I think on average, to be 799 00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:33,000 safe, 75 miles an hour is about minimum. 800 00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:37,240 Now this is, this is on an MLB field with short grass. 801 00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,480 I think that's the caveat, you know if you you're hitting a low 802 00:50:40,720 --> 00:50:45,000 EV ground ball to the four hole and you got longer grass, that 803 00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:48,120 means that the the fielders have more time to get to that ball 804 00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:49,840 because it's moving slower, right. 805 00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:54,240 So I don't I don't know that this transfers to a high school 806 00:50:54,240 --> 00:50:58,800 player or like a college player that is playing on a field with 807 00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,120 longer grass in the in the early spring like I. 808 00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:05,000 And so like I want to put that caveat in there of like you know 809 00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:09,320 it it exa veal still matters and probably matters a little bit 810 00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:13,120 more at the lower ages because of the fact that the the grass, 811 00:51:13,240 --> 00:51:16,280 the grass or your surface type is going to be more variable 812 00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,560 than it is in a professional. Like, I think you have to put 813 00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,760 that caveat like there's so much more consistency in a playing 814 00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:27,000 surface at the pro level. Right. 815 00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:32,680 And if you, you know, you have a greater affordance of lower exit 816 00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,960 velocities. If you play on a turf field, say 817 00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:41,800 yeah, Toronto, yeah, Toronto, you can basically bury the ball 818 00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:43,680 on the ground with a very soft hit. 819 00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:48,840 And you are having a greater likelihood of getting a hit, you 820 00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:53,160 know, based on the parameters that you have stated because of 821 00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:58,280 that fast turf infield. And so that's where at least you 822 00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:02,960 know, I I'm not like somewhere. I think ground balls are evil. 823 00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:06,720 I think they are. They're they're part of the 824 00:52:06,720 --> 00:52:10,960 repertoire, but you can't rely on them enough because the 825 00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:13,720 probabilities of them turning into hits, I think are lower 826 00:52:13,720 --> 00:52:17,320 than than, say, for example, a rising line drive that the 827 00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,400 infielders can't catch. I mean, it just makes sense to 828 00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:24,120 me, you know, unless the outfielders are playing super 829 00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:25,520 shallow. But that's kind of the thing of 830 00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,240 like it was super cool. I thought that which made also 831 00:52:29,240 --> 00:52:32,120 no sense. But at one point they tried to 832 00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:36,000 play the odds with a rise and shifted either brought guys 833 00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:37,760 brought a guy into the infielder. 834 00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:41,320 Shifted the outfielders all to one side and left right field 835 00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:43,680 open. You know when when they had like 836 00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:48,360 the winning run on, I don't know second or third and arise just 837 00:52:48,720 --> 00:52:52,800 slaps, just hits his typical prototypical line drive that 838 00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:56,080 probably would have went right to the right fielder and boom, 839 00:52:56,080 --> 00:53:00,680 game over, you know. So I think it's it's kind of one 840 00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:03,920 of those things though too like to go back to you know so 841 00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:07,080 everybody knows I'm not anti hit the ball hard because if you 842 00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:10,520 look at Arise a lot of his ground balls are like 90 plus 843 00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,520 and those are hard for infielders to handle even though 844 00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:18,160 it's not like the the top end you know of Velo. 845 00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:22,560 It's still they're firm and those firm ones, like, there's 846 00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,840 something about it just even in my head of like, from a 847 00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:28,680 psychological standpoint, being on the receiving end of a ball 848 00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,840 that looks like it's coming at you hard makes it hard. 849 00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,200 Like you're just your motor skills tend to freeze up a 850 00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:35,920 little bit more. Your degrees of freedom tend to 851 00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:37,760 freeze a little bit more as a result. 852 00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,360 So even though you dove for it and you probably could have 853 00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:44,720 actually have got it, often times you don't get it because 854 00:53:45,240 --> 00:53:48,520 you're you're not as fluid enough to be able to actually 855 00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:50,160 move the glove where it should be. 856 00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,160 You're just moving because you're like, oh gosh. 857 00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:56,320 And so anyways, that's why I think hard hit balls in general 858 00:53:56,320 --> 00:54:00,160 are are always still going to be, you know, relatively good. 859 00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:03,680 Not to say that I I don't think there's sometimes it makes sense 860 00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,080 to hit weakly to an infielder because that is also a hard 861 00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:10,440 play. But the infielders also at times 862 00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:13,480 tend to also be fluid enough to make make up for those. 863 00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,400 Or that's a different element of of that problem. 864 00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:23,080 But anyways, I digress. All right, Robert, is there 865 00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:30,200 anything else in particular that you want to cover that I haven't 866 00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:31,920 haven't thrown out or fed to you? 867 00:54:32,240 --> 00:54:35,640 You know, as a create an affordance for you? 868 00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,080 There's a better, better way of saying, is there any affordance 869 00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:39,480 I haven't created for you for something? 870 00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,360 That you wanted to talk about E ecological dynamics? 871 00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:46,600 No, I think we we covered a lot of kind of blending. 872 00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:52,080 You know, how can we have analytics help explain kind of 873 00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:56,400 some of the approaches within ecological dynamics and ask 874 00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:59,120 those kinds of questions? Because yeah, like not all 875 00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:04,600 hitters are created equal here. And like Arias consistently is 876 00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:07,840 that that type of person where he's kind of the outlier if you 877 00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:13,960 will, where like based on he doesn't hit the ball that hard 878 00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:18,280 compared to the other people and you know within 5 or 10 spots of 879 00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:23,480 him, but he's still up here and and in successful you know type 880 00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,160 of hitters. And so being able to discuss 881 00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:30,720 this and say like you know you can have different blends of 882 00:55:30,720 --> 00:55:34,840 hitters and still be successful And I think the the most 883 00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:40,560 successful teams have that they have guys who can do both. 884 00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:45,000 You know the guys who can hit for, who are mostly hitting for 885 00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:46,520 power. You know mostly the three true 886 00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:48,520 outcome guys. They have some guys in the 887 00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:51,520 Araya's category. They have some guys who are a 888 00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:58,160 little bit above, but you know, you should have like you 889 00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:02,000 shouldn't be a one trick pony, if you will, on that and so. 890 00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:06,120 I think, you know, to kind of talk about, OK, how does 891 00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:09,360 ecological dynamics to be, be very specific and explicit here 892 00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:14,880 of my thoughts on how to utilize analytics from an ecological 893 00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:18,360 approach or how to bring those two together is it's all about 894 00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,160 context. OK, so you want to be asking the 895 00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:25,920 questions of, OK, use analytics to dig into. 896 00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:30,880 I mean, obviously this is what people already do, but I think 897 00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:35,280 we have to remember this of, OK, let's find out what this guy 898 00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:37,200 does. Well, let's see if we can dig 899 00:56:37,240 --> 00:56:41,080 through the numbers to find out like, OK, how are they doing 900 00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,720 this 'cause they 'cause I think a lot of times we try to use 901 00:56:44,720 --> 00:56:48,600 these analytical models of a certain type of player. 902 00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:53,200 We try to shove everybody else into that model and compare them 903 00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:56,800 to this model. Whereas I think there's we need 904 00:56:56,800 --> 00:57:01,280 to also and if not more so you're looking at and asking the 905 00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:05,080 questions especially of the anomalies like arise and I'm 906 00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:07,840 sure there's other ones that we can point to but like 907 00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,920 understanding of these other anomalies of like hey, this 908 00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:16,720 person also who breaks the model can still have success and how 909 00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:18,840 can we find out can they have success. 910 00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:22,560 Because to me that's where I'm like, you know I want to know 911 00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,760 different things of like OK with the rise and these other guys, 912 00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:26,960 OK, what pitches are they hitting? 913 00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:28,600 Well where where are they hitting them? 914 00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:30,120 Right. These are all ecological 915 00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:34,840 questions in a way of like the context, you know if you want to 916 00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:38,880 begin to understand a player's skill because to me that's what 917 00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:40,200 ecological dynamics is all about. 918 00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:42,080 Is understanding skilled behavior. 919 00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:46,080 OK. How do we begin to utilize the 920 00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:51,920 analytics to understand the skill of a player and not in 921 00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:55,160 terms of like how do they do on this model of like swing 922 00:57:55,160 --> 00:58:00,240 decisions or you know, like I don't know, like you know what's 923 00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:04,480 their OPS, whatever the whatever sort of model, you know that I 924 00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:08,880 think some, some a lot of people sometimes will have and then 925 00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:12,480 certain guys get left out. Because I mean I think right. 926 00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:14,680 If you're looking at again finding an edge, right and 927 00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,600 finding, you know, kind of in a way that like I like listening 928 00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:21,520 to Kyle Bode talk about like them finding undervalued 929 00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,440 players, OK. If you want to be able to find 930 00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:30,360 undervalued players and have them come and be as successful 931 00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:37,200 in contributing to your team, I think you have to be able to 932 00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:39,640 look outside your model for other things. 933 00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:45,480 You know, other things of like, you know, again, like other 934 00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:47,280 adaptable players. Because to me, to me, 935 00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:50,280 adaptability is the is the whole thing of like, yeah, some guys 936 00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:52,800 might say, for example, not everybody is going to do things 937 00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:54,520 the way that Cody Bellinger was able to do. 938 00:58:55,000 --> 00:59:00,400 But we don't have to have this rigid, like everybody needs to 939 00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:03,760 fit into this model of hitting, you know, of, you know, 940 00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,720 completely balanced, you know, stay back, whatever. 941 00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,640 Like every swing looks exactly the same. 942 00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,400 You can have this model of like you can have both. 943 00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:13,800 And that's that's I think the the big thing for me, like what 944 00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:17,920 ecological dynamics does in that in that framework, in that 945 00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:21,360 perspective, in that worldview, is it frees me up to say that I 946 00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,880 don't have to ever have every guy look exactly the same and I 947 00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:29,200 don't have to, you could say, have a cookie cutter program 948 00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:32,400 that everybody's trying to fit into that we can individualize 949 00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,720 it to the person. And then how I look at it as far 950 00:59:34,720 --> 00:59:39,240 as my role as a coach is, it's like how can I find and look at 951 00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:44,480 the vast, you could say, library of players throughout history 952 00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:47,400 and how they've done things. And how can I find those 953 00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:50,840 different pieces of of how they found success and take those 954 00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:54,800 pieces and apply it to the player and find the right fit. 955 00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:58,440 You know, finding that, that that element that another 956 00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:01,280 player's done well that fits with this current player that's 957 01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,480 in front of me so they can find success. 958 01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,600 And so for me the the ecological approaches. 959 01:00:07,080 --> 01:00:11,120 Such a powerful tool in a lens by which in a filter you could 960 01:00:11,120 --> 01:00:15,000 say to help me look through the history, the vast history of the 961 01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:20,520 game, you know, from the past to the present to help whatever 962 01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:21,920 player is sitting in front of me right now. 963 01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:25,840 So I hopefully that helps people kind of begin to see a little 964 01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:30,240 bit how these things come together and how like the power 965 01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:32,360 of the ecological approach. And obviously we need to get in 966 01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:35,600 to more in the future of like what is the ecological approach, 967 01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:37,360 where are all these little principles and all that sort of 968 01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:39,600 stuff. But hopefully that's a good way 969 01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:42,840 to kind of wrap and help tie this all together. 970 01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:47,000 Anything you want to close with? No, I think you close it very, 971 01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:51,120 very well. All right, well, hope you guys 972 01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,040 enjoyed today's podcast and got something out of it. 973 01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:55,560 Until next time. Until next time.