1 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:12,720 Welcome Colin Irvin to the podcast Sanity Check. 2 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,840 It's great pleasure to be here. Thank you for asking me. 3 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,280 Yeah, but I'm glad you said yes. Could you tell a little bit 4 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,840 about yourself and your work? Maybe we start there, Yeah. 5 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:28,280 Well, it goes back a long time. I, you know, having been sort of 6 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:33,400 grow up in the 60s and going around the world being a bit of 7 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,480 a peace advocate. I, I went, ended up in the 8 00:00:36,480 --> 00:00:39,280 Arctic. I crossed the Arctic by dog team 9 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,920 and got, got adopted into an Inuit family and then worked on 10 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,640 Inuit land claims settlement in the Canadian Arctic. 11 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:51,360 And then I discovered really that the Inuit were as, as a 12 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,280 group of people, well, they're far nicer and better than most 13 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,640 of the people around the rest of the world that, that I, that I 14 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,720 had a, had a problem with. And it turned out that they're 15 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,920 one of the few societies without war. 16 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,880 They can only say, let us go and murder many people. 17 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,160 They, and they don't have chiefs that can organise people into, 18 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,040 into, into group, group, group violence. 19 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,920 And they have many mechanisms for stopping conflict simply 20 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,240 because so many young men were dying from hunting accidents. 21 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,640 If they had war, there would, there would be no enemy. 22 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,920 They had a culture without war. So I ended up working on land 23 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,800 claims settlement in the Canadian Arctic and I worked up 24 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:36,640 with native organizations and I wrote my PhD thesis on how they 25 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,840 developed a society without war. So one of the most important 26 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,720 elements of that was if you have a really difficult decision to 27 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,680 make, everyone has to agree. It has to be by consensus. 28 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,000 And so when I was working on the land claims settlement, at one 29 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,840 point we had 300 delegates from all the villages across the 30 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:59,440 Arctic to decide some important decisions in the land claim 31 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,600 process. And actually one guy disagreed 32 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,720 with what every the other 299 had agreed to and they had to 33 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,600 wait. And, and so I guess someone went 34 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,640 and had dinner with him one evening and the next day it was, 35 00:02:14,920 --> 00:02:18,320 it was Kalujak from Whale Cove. And he said I've changed my 36 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,240 mind. And everybody was greatly 37 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,840 relieved because they couldn't have a decision until everyone 38 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,160 agreed. So they rarely meant it. 39 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,360 I mean, it was a very serious, very serious matter that 40 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,400 everyone had to agree. So I kind of learnt that 41 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:38,040 discourse from the Inuit, the successful politician amongst 42 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,360 the Inuit is someone who can listen to the different points 43 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:44,000 of view and then try and bring people to a consensus. 44 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,720 And so that when I ended up in Northern Ireland using public 45 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:52,520 opinion polls, we designed with colleagues their public opinion 46 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:58,360 polls to measure consensus. So what you had to do was get 47 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,920 all the different points of view on a given issue into the 48 00:03:00,920 --> 00:03:04,360 question. And then with a special scale 49 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,800 that we used, we could find out where, where the compromises 50 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,880 were. And we used that on issues like, 51 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,080 should kids go to integrated schools together? 52 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,560 The, the political elites didn't want it and the, the ministers 53 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,840 and the priests didn't want it, but the, the parents and the 54 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,680 kids wanted it. So we could use public opinion 55 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,520 to actually in that case, we, we, we took a human rights 56 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,360 complaint to the neighbour and we want it. 57 00:03:30,920 --> 00:03:35,720 The people wanted schooling together and in Geneva the human 58 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:39,800 rights Rights of the Child Commission and the Economic and 59 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,960 Social Rights Commission, they agreed that that should be the 60 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:44,600 that should be the number one choice. 61 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,440 And that that is really the role of public opinion as as showing 62 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,240 the voice of the people is I think about that. 63 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,240 I think George Caleb actually also focused on that a bit to 64 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,640 say people who understand each other don't go to war against 65 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,760 each other. And, and, and looking at the how 66 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,680 politics is is using now in demonizing an enemy. 67 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:09,480 It's not just in North Korea and, and this dictators around 68 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:11,280 the world. It's, it's, it's happening in 69 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,360 the Western world more and more. Look at the American election 70 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,480 right now, where where especially Trump right now is 71 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:21,360 focusing everything he can on demonizing the other side, 72 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,320 making them look much stupider than they are. 73 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:28,720 And and these big polarizations, which when you meet you, you can 74 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,840 often find a common ground face to face. 75 00:04:30,840 --> 00:04:33,400 You seldom want to make a fight with with people if you're 76 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,640 sober, listen, in the middle of the day. 77 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,600 But but yeah, I think this, this is something that so often is, 78 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,520 is getting forgotten and then it's being misused in the public 79 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:46,520 space that beware of the enemy. They are evil. 80 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,400 They want you bad. And but we see in research that 81 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:54,240 most people are just sane, normal people who actually would 82 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,960 just wants to live their lives. Absolutely. 83 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:02,520 That's, that's spot on. People, people want security and 84 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,920 they they want a good life for themselves and their children. 85 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,160 Every time I run polls on on conflicts around the world, nine 86 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:15,240 time or more than nine times out of 10/1 can guarantee the result 87 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,920 that the the people will be more accommodating and be willing to 88 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,320 compromise more than the political elites. 89 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,760 The political elites exploit the, the bad, the bad aspects, 90 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:29,320 the unfortunate aspects of human nature, human nature. 91 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:34,120 We're inclined to fall into groups and and the the group 92 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,640 people often say of the Irish, the Irish are the nicest, 93 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,240 friendliest, loveliest people in the world, but their group 94 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,360 behaviour leaves something to be desired. 95 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,920 And that's that's true of actually most people around 96 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,600 individually, they're absolutely just fine. 97 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,080 It's, it's the group behaviour that's a problem. 98 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:57,920 So how can we get around that? Well, we can use polling. 99 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:02,160 Well, Poland can be used to, to demonstrate polarities in, in, 100 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,880 in societies. I call that partisan polling as 101 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,200 opposed to peace polling. The way you design the 102 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,000 questions, the way you design the questionnaire, what you 103 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:12,520 publish and what you don't publish. 104 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,680 You can, you can use it either way. 105 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,320 I mean, all adventures are double edged swords and, and 106 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,280 that includes public opinion polls. 107 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,400 Let's use it with the good angels and find out. 108 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,560 I know what people can agree to. Yeah, but definitely do that. 109 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:29,160 That is definitely true and, and and was it Mark Twain who said 110 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:34,680 the lies lies of statistics and me as running public opinion 111 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,680 polling firm where where we do a lot of we do every type of 112 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:41,200 research. Our focus is not to present 113 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,800 numbers, is to present the correct image of the view of the 114 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,240 people based on the facts that we get. 115 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:53,600 So, so the explanation is the core of what we're doing, not to 116 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,680 fool people with numbers or statistics, but actually give 117 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,040 the relevant statistics. But this is what's happening. 118 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,840 This is what we know. This is what we don't know, but 119 00:07:02,840 --> 00:07:06,320 that it's very easy to to just take random data point that you 120 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:09,600 want to to prove your point. So yeah. 121 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,680 And that's the danger. You have to always put 122 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,880 everything in the context. Yeah, and I remember when I 123 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:23,000 started, I was, I was, I was asked by the UN to help them use 124 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,360 artificial intelligence for polling. 125 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:31,560 And the guys who started with this building up these AI models 126 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:36,040 of Remesh AI, they, they had published a paper, oh, this is 127 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:39,520 going back a few years and they said, well, there's there's lots 128 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,640 of problems here. One of them would be that, well, 129 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,400 we wouldn't understand the context and that that really, 130 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,680 you have to really, really appreciate that. 131 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:53,200 So working with the AI, we were doing a lot of that online, 132 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,720 particularly during the COVID years, but I found it very 133 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,720 frustrating. I really want to sit down with 134 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,200 the people on each side when I'm working on a conflict, have a 135 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:08,160 coffee with them, have a long chat with them as we are now, 136 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:13,200 but maybe even longer chat. And unless you do that, you can 137 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:17,680 really not find out what the real problems are because people 138 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,760 will just tell you what the what the, what the party message is. 139 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,400 I found the same when, when interviewing politicians to, to 140 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:30,680 get them to devise questions. Quite often the lead politicians 141 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,440 that they would, they would just give me the party line. 142 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:37,320 But actually, what Americans call the staffers would often be 143 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,480 far more helpful because they'd be far more experimental and be 144 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,280 willing to go outside the party line and look for alternatives 145 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,080 to the to the party line. That's a very good point because 146 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,360 most of the time the politics right now is just staying in 147 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:55,000 power or gaining power. I also worked a lot with 148 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,560 political consultants and, and the quickest way to get a 149 00:08:58,560 --> 00:09:02,960 reaction is fear that that's the most effective, just getting 150 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,400 people not to go in in the wrong way, scare them. 151 00:09:05,680 --> 00:09:09,280 So if, if these win the election, the world will end. 152 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,200 OK, OK, at least you're not doing the it's better if you 153 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,720 don't vote than if you vote on the wrong guy. 154 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,720 It's part of the entire political structure right now. 155 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,880 And it's being also fueled with the current media logic because 156 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,480 that is also the strongest reaction from getting you to 157 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,960 share a story is fear. So these two coincide so much 158 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,840 and it demonizes everyone who's not in the same group. 159 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,640 And it's impossible to understand the other side from 160 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,000 these two parts. The politicians aren't 161 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,200 interested because they they just want to stay in power. 162 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:42,120 And news media don't think we as an audience is interested but 163 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,640 but we are. We just don't want to be drowned 164 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:48,720 in all these horrible stories. So all the time I tend to to 165 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,440 summarize this that people are not stupid, but more and more 166 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,240 people think everyone else is because it looks like everyone 167 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,880 else is an idiot. Because looking through the 168 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:03,040 media, except the people you know, because they, they, you 169 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,560 have the nuances. You, you know them, you, you 170 00:10:05,560 --> 00:10:07,000 grow up with them, you work with them. 171 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,560 But looking at the politicians through the eye of the media or 172 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,720 every analyst in the official space, it's being like an an 173 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,000 entertainment show more than a nuanced person. 174 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,760 You have to have your one line. You have to have this thing that 175 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,400 introduces some sort of feeling in the audience more than 176 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,720 actually building trust. It's going very fast right now 177 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,160 from from that perspective. It's really. 178 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,720 I think you're absolutely right about people using fear, 179 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,600 particularly that that class of politicians that that I call 180 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:42,120 ethnic entrepreneurs, They exploit the community behaviour 181 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:46,400 and and and identity for their own ends, not for the benefit of 182 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,880 their community. When we were doing a lot of 183 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,080 polling in to resolve the Northern Ireland conflict, we 184 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,000 always found that we got far better results in our peace 185 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,120 polls than general and people would say, well, why aren't 186 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,000 people voting more for the Alliance Party and the women's 187 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,360 coalition and the center parties? 188 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,400 Why are they voting for the extreme parties? 189 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,480 Well, what happens come an election is that the, the 190 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,760 politicians, the political elites of the, the, the, the, 191 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:16,160 the, the more extreme parties on, on either side of, of any 192 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,560 issue, whether it's in America or Northern Ireland or or Israel 193 00:11:20,560 --> 00:11:23,280 and Palestine, whatever it happens to be, they'll, they'll 194 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:29,040 just use fear to, to get people to, to vote for them as opposed 195 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:33,520 to voting for, for the peaceful parties, which would be merits 196 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,920 and Labour in in Israel right now. 197 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,920 Or they were Alliance and Women's Coalition when I was 198 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,720 working there. Fortunately, Alliance are doing 199 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,200 better and better every year now. 200 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,320 But it it's taken a, it's taken a long time to get there, but 201 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,560 they are getting there. I realized that as well. 202 00:11:48,560 --> 00:11:51,520 And I think maybe the US is quite an interesting example 203 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:56,200 right now because when Biden stepped down and Kamala Harris 204 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,880 and Tim Waltz became the alternative, they have a 205 00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:03,280 different tonality. They more focus on we've got 206 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,680 your back. They have a more positive view 207 00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:10,120 on the future and and I think people are starving for that 208 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,640 kind of message from a politician because it's such a 209 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,800 stark contrast to to the other these two old guys fighting 210 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,400 who's the toughest guy basically. 211 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,440 And that's not what you really want. 212 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:24,000 But when the alternative is 2 guys fighting, you're you're 213 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,880 forced to choose side. Now you can start just 214 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,400 listening. OK, what's in it for me really? 215 00:12:29,680 --> 00:12:32,640 Do I really want to fight? No, but if they are punching at 216 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,600 me, I have to punch back. So you get tricked into these 217 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,440 false, false choices in the public space. 218 00:12:38,680 --> 00:12:41,960 Either you're for abortion or either you want to kill children 219 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,000 or you want them to live. It's like what? 220 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,120 That's not the question, but it's gets so extreme. 221 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,080 So you're forcing people to and most people leave this. 222 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:52,880 That's also what I realized in research. 223 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,240 Most people don't want to make the choice of life and death 224 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,800 just to make it because Oh no, this is just stupid and they 225 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,360 leave. But that that benefits these 226 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:06,560 extremist parties, but it undermines the basis of 227 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,960 stability for democracy in the long run and and some democracy 228 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:11,640 for someone else. And suddenly you have this 229 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,880 authoritarian leader who who's used oh wow, I can have all the 230 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,240 power and you don't have to vote ever again. 231 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,160 It's it's happened some places, yeah. 232 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:26,080 Yeah, it's a very dangerous situation, but we have to be a 233 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,960 little bit optimistic. So I, I, I mean, my country, the 234 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,480 UK has, has gone through a bit of a cycle in the last few 235 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,560 years. We, we went into a period of 236 00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:40,840 extreme politics and leaving the European Union and then 237 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,680 everybody got fed up with those extreme politicians. 238 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,920 And now we have a, a very stable Labour government and help, as 239 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,360 long as they don't mess up, they'll probably be in for two 240 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,480 terms. So now everybody's looking, oh 241 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,560 wow, UK has got a stable government. 242 00:13:55,560 --> 00:13:59,800 Everybody else is going nuts and going crazy in France and in 243 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,720 America. Maybe we just went through our 244 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:06,000 crazy spell a few years ago and now the other guys are going 245 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,480 through a crazy spell and maybe they'll get over it. 246 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,120 Maybe America's getting over it now. 247 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:11,440 Let's hope so. Yeah. 248 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,160 And I think that that that is really spot on and that that's 249 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,960 actually the point I tried to make, but I missed it because 250 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:22,320 because you could get to a point where finally politics makes 251 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,440 sense again, because in the Western world, I don't think you 252 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,160 see any alternatives to a democracy really. 253 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:33,240 But these false choices fully away from the common sense and 254 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,800 and the common good. Because you don't see that 255 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,200 there's it, It looks like it's a martial law. 256 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:41,320 Every day is only see murders. You only see death, you only see 257 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,120 problems. And the driving factor in 258 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:49,320 populist part is always worry and fear not that much anger 259 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,000 because but it's more oh, OK, this is looking bad. 260 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,120 Someone needs to do something. But the same people leave 261 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,680 basically because the the ones who aren't really afraid, they 262 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,680 say, OK, never mind I'll I'll just focus on my own life. 263 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,320 I just taking the kids to school, keep get a better job, 264 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,480 let's focus on my own life because this, I can't be 265 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,480 bothered with this. But then there comes this 266 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,360 tipping points, I think, and probably what's happened in the 267 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,600 UK and, and maybe also in United States. 268 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,520 I, I, I have a feeling I have been wrong before, but I have a 269 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,600 feeling that's what happened now in US as well. 270 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:21,840 Well. That would be great. 271 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,040 I mean, yes, we did reach a tipping point and it and it 272 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:29,280 tipped and Labour got a landslide victory in the last 273 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,000 election. Maybe, maybe Harris will pull it 274 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:32,640 off. Let's hope. 275 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,880 Yeah, But it looks like that they're mobilizing people who 276 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:40,400 who from Republican perspective should not vote because they 277 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,560 will not vote Republican basically because the 278 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,000 demographics are not on the Republican side at all. 279 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,840 But I think I think also what most like if, if I remember 280 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,800 correctly from your peace polls and also from my research that 281 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:58,400 the silent majority is often the same one, but it's almost often 282 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,680 a majority. So when when you let them 283 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:04,320 actually listen to that. That's exactly what peace polls 284 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:05,920 do. They tap into the silent 285 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,600 majority. But the silent majority is much 286 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:12,680 bigger than the the polarizing political elites. 287 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:16,000 The ethnic entrepreneurs want to believe in the Northern Ireland 288 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,720 peace process. Senator George Mitchell was in 289 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,320 the negotiations and they had all the results of one of our 290 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,600 peace polls in front of them. And, and Ian Paisley senior, who 291 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:31,120 was the, the, the radical unionist who wasn't going to 292 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,680 accept any kind of a peace deal, he said, oh, something was 293 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,560 suggested in the negotiations. They said, oh, my people can't 294 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,040 possibly accept that. And then George Mitchell said, 295 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,040 but according to the public opinion polls, your people 296 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:46,840 actually think this is quite a good idea. 297 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,840 And then, and then the Reverend Ian Paisley said, well, it was 298 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,880 the wrong question and this was the secret with it all. 299 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,760 George Maple said, you guys agreed the question. 300 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,000 We always got it. The important thing here is to 301 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,240 give the ownership of the research to the political 302 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,880 parties, to the politicians, so they can't walk away from it. 303 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,640 You, you've got to make them part of the research process. 304 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:13,920 They've got to take ownership of the results. 305 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,200 So I mean, you and I, we could probably come up with a, a 306 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:22,400 pretty smart questionnaire to look at some particular issue 307 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,359 and find out what the, where the convergence is. 308 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,840 But then if the, if the politicians weren't part of that 309 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,840 design and that, and they didn't agree the methodology, they're 310 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,440 just going to say, well, that was a bad sample or that was the 311 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,680 wrong question. So you you have to bring the 312 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:41,240 parties on board and give them ownership of the research. 313 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,680 Yeah, that it's a very good point And, and, and my contact 314 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,440 with politicians is that they really want the people's 315 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,840 support, but they often get the skewed views because they look 316 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,080 at social media and think this is my following because their 317 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,480 response is immediate. But that is such a small 318 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,520 minority. And I, I mentioned to you last 319 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,560 time we met about the Swedish NATO process that, which really 320 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,120 surprised me when I, when I, I realized what happened, because 321 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,800 to be part of NATO, you have to show that you have a public 322 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,120 support that's part of the application. 323 00:18:11,120 --> 00:18:15,040 But it's not a referendum. It's showing that you have the 324 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,760 basically opinion poll. And we and, and some other firms 325 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,720 in Sweden did track the, the view on NATO. 326 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,200 But what I did, because we published a research on our 327 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:30,160 homepage and we also showed what different supporters for 328 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:34,400 different parties thought and the Swedish Democrats with is 329 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,800 the Swedish twist of populist party. 330 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:40,880 It's a typical Swedish populist party because it's, it's not the 331 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,520 same as Boris Johnson or Trump. And basically it's, it's a, it's 332 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,520 a Swedish twist, but it's still a very populist party. 333 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,800 They really want the majority of everyone to, to vote for them. 334 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,720 And they know they cannot get real power if they don't have a 335 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,760 majority. So they, they really focused on, 336 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,400 on The Voice of the people and tapping into the most urging 337 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,600 ideas. But two days after we released 338 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,040 our polls showing that the Swedish Democratic voters were 339 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,920 for NATO, the party leader said we are for NATO. 340 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,720 And I just say, hang on. I did that. 341 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,880 It was not my intention. But I just realized because they 342 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,400 don't want to go against their voters because this is not an 343 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,960 election issue, because traditionally they have been 344 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,880 against NATO. So, so they, they were the 345 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:28,400 furthest away from being part of NATO, but they switched in two 346 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:32,040 days when they saw that their voters actually wanted this. 347 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:36,040 And that is, that is a really shows a little bit the power 348 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,200 that we have as opinion pollsters, but but also the 349 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,800 responsibility we have. And, and then the power to 350 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,080 actually, when the voice of the people gets out, it actually has 351 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,600 an effect. It's good for me because I don't 352 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,480 want to misuse that power. I really think it's so important 353 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,360 to even show the voice of correct you, otherwise of the 354 00:19:53,360 --> 00:19:55,200 people. And then we have to be 355 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,320 independent, we have to have reliable methods. 356 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,480 It's not just noise, it is actually the voice of the 357 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,400 people. But it's fascinating when this 358 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,600 happens. That's why I think polling on 359 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:11,000 peace processes should be done globally all the time, because I 360 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:18,160 mean, one very good example of that is in in in the Ukraine. 361 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:23,320 The polling that was done up to the invasion of Ukraine showed 362 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:28,600 very clearly that the Ukrainian public would resist the invasion 363 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,720 and fight back. And under those circumstances, 364 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,040 either the Russian generals didn't look at the data or they 365 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:40,400 were too embarrassed to show it to to Putin, because this, this 366 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,040 is this wasn't something he wanted to know. 367 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:48,040 So if, if we can do truth, this is what my supervisor, my PhD 368 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,520 supervisor said. We, he calls it truth telling, 369 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,440 which we're social scientists, we we're truth tellers. 370 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,800 So that kind of truth needs to be told all the time, 371 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,520 everywhere, all the time. The same same with the with the 372 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,760 peace process in Israel and Palestine. 373 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:09,040 I was running a peace poll there in two O 8 and at that time I I 374 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,920 met with the president Shimon Peres, with Prime Minister 375 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,960 Olmert, with I met with Hamas. They were all fined to do the 376 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,200 peace poll and do the work. But then Benjamin Netanyahu got 377 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,200 elected and he had no interest in making peace. 378 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:26,040 So after after a couple of years, Senator George Mitchell, 379 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,120 who I'd worked with in Northern Ireland, resigned. 380 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,560 But what should have happened is that the kind of polling that I 381 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:35,800 did, it should have been done regularly all the time in any 382 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,760 conflict. And you just have to keep 383 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,280 hitting that same nail on the head and keep making the same 384 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:46,960 point. The difficulty is that as one of 385 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,880 my good colleagues who does a lot of polling around the world 386 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,880 for different governments and different agencies, it says 387 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,800 calling them there's no money in peace anytime, anytime there's a 388 00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,600 war. Our colleagues in the World 389 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,000 Association of Public Opinion Research, they're running quite, 390 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,920 quite, quite big businesses and it's actually the multi 391 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,440 $1,000,000 business to be running public opinion for their 392 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,640 clients where there is a war, if just a a percentage of that of 393 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,160 that money was spent on doing peace polling. 394 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,760 So that we, we could expose the kind of truth which which you 395 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,240 presented in Sweden to the political leader there. 396 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,560 I mean, and they and they changed their policy. 397 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,720 We need to do that globally. And we have the where we were 398 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,040 able to do it. We have all the skills to do it. 399 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,800 Yeah, we really do. And and the Gallup model is, is 400 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:39,680 is so magical in that sense that it's extremely cost effective. 401 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,360 People say it's expensive. I think it's almost for free 402 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,600 because compared to. Yeah, the costs are coming down 403 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:52,120 all the time. And sadly right after the way 404 00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:55,920 poor and and Gallup was all set up right after the Second World 405 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,800 War. And the intention of the 406 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,040 founders was that we would do polling around the world and 407 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:06,040 we'd work with UNESCO and that would help prevent another war. 408 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:11,320 Well, then the Korean War came along and the people who wanted 409 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:18,440 to do that then got well paid contracts to explore what public 410 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,960 opinion was, where the war was. And that became the paradigm. 411 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,040 And then the original intention was lost. 412 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,360 But you're right. I mean with your example of the 413 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:36,080 the Swedish politician and him changing his opinion, the same 414 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,760 can happen in any country in the world. 415 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,600 The same can happen probably and we just be truth tellers. 416 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:46,480 Because the people find fighting wars, plan on war to end and 417 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,240 they'll be on the winning side. But you cannot win without the 418 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,080 people behind you. Yeah, so much of these issues 419 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,760 that that also we've we've done a lot of view on the environment 420 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,720 and climate change and and see that the people are on on the 421 00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,800 same track. The politicians aren't. 422 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,160 Globally you'd get the same result. 423 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,840 I'm absolutely certain of it. You know that as well as I do. 424 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,360 We talked to our colleagues doing polling around the world 425 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,120 and we know that we're of the same mind and the people they 426 00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:15,440 poll are of the same mind. The problem here is the United 427 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,760 Nations, they could be doing this stuff, but they don't 428 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,640 publish. They do quite a lot of polling 429 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,360 and in conflicts, but they don't publish any of it because they 430 00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:27,600 don't want to upset their member states. 431 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:29,920 Oh. Yeah, that's right, There are. 432 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,160 Five, There are five countries in the Security Council who have 433 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,600 a veto. So all UN missions have to come 434 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,880 up and get renewed every year through a vote through the 435 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,720 Security Council. And so if they go and upset 436 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:48,560 somebody on the Security Council who has a vested interest either 437 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,840 in Israel or in Ukraine or wherever it happens to be, then 438 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,520 their mission could get shut down or their research program 439 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,840 could get shut down. So the, the the UN actually do 440 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:02,960 very, very good research because I've been involved in quite a 441 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,880 lot of it, but it doesn't see the light of day. 442 00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:09,680 And if it doesn't see the light of day, then people can walk 443 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,840 away from it and ignore it. We have to find another vehicle 444 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,680 for this research. Yeah, that is a really good 445 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,640 point. It's it's, it's like when you're 446 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,400 the example in the beginning with this 300 person with one 447 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,000 who was against it, It's it, it only takes one guy in these 448 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,920 kinds of organizations. It's it's actually, it's really 449 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,160 sad because yeah, you've been doing it longer than I have, but 450 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,080 I've been doing this for a decade now and I see that people 451 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,600 are good people. Most people are, but the good 452 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:43,360 people don't want to fight. But the fighters tend to steal 453 00:25:43,360 --> 00:25:46,800 all the tension in the public space and also have 454 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,360 self-proclaimed voices for the group they choose. 455 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,080 And nobody's challenging them. So everyone thinks like me, I'm 456 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,840 a Christian or I'm a Muslim. And then we who are not part of 457 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,120 that, we are the silent minority. 458 00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:04,840 We won't challenge this. But they tend to skew the view 459 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,800 on on all these these groups all the time. 460 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,080 I mean, 11 good example, which is very domestic for me here in 461 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,360 the UK is that during the the Brexit debate, the guys who 462 00:26:17,360 --> 00:26:21,160 wanted to leave the European Union, they were getting all 463 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,440 kind of funding for their polling and they were running 464 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,280 polls to which were what I call partisan polls. 465 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:31,120 They were designed to promote their own point of view. 466 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,040 And then the guys on the other side who wanted to stay in the 467 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:41,200 European Union, they were getting funding too, but nobody 468 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,800 was doing polling on what the compromises were, which would be 469 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,640 something like the Norwegian model or whatever it happened to 470 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,040 be, or just staying in the customs union. 471 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:52,960 I mean, there were lots of compromise models. 472 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,120 Nobody wanted to get funding for that. 473 00:26:56,120 --> 00:27:00,680 So actually I ran one of my own polls and I used Google and it 474 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,760 must have cost me about £100 just to get a sample and I 475 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,640 published it and I did that with the intention. 476 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,600 Well, if somebody says well that wasn't a very good sample, OK, 477 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,080 give me, give me a couple of 1000 lbs and I'll give you a 478 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:19,840 good sample. So sometimes I don't know, we, 479 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,280 we just have to sort of go out there and, and be experimental 480 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,040 and say, well, this isn't a very good sample. 481 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,960 I couldn't afford to get a good one and then just publish the 482 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:33,040 result and say, well OK, this is actually what people really 483 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,560 want. Yeah, prove me wrong. 484 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,720 Yeah. You know, if you don't agree 485 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,400 with me, give me some real money and I'll get a I'll get a better 486 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:41,560 sample for you. Yeah. 487 00:27:42,360 --> 00:27:45,360 Yeah, it's, it's a it's a good idea and sad at the same time 488 00:27:45,360 --> 00:27:49,480 that you have to go that route. And, and it's also, yeah, you 489 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,400 can't have a referendum about compromise. 490 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,880 And that's probably, but, but I think also one thing thinking 491 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,040 about the Brexit of well, there was so much misinformation. 492 00:27:58,360 --> 00:28:01,960 So, so having like a knowledge, knowledge research, what do 493 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,200 people really know about the European Union? 494 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,920 What is facts? What is propaganda? 495 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,480 That that also were no interest, of course, of any of the parties 496 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,320 to do. But that probably was the key 497 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:19,800 issue because the voices who voted for leave were surprised 498 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,920 they they had problems staying in in France. 499 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,160 Yeah, probably. It's already always a key key 500 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:25,040 issue. Yeah. 501 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,440 Yeah, it is. I can't think. 502 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,640 I'm just thinking, you know, when did everybody completely 503 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,880 understand the situation and then. 504 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:35,640 Yeah, that, that is true. It's something. 505 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,600 Stupid. Yeah, yeah, we actually do a lot 506 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:43,760 of like knowledge things for our own say just because what do you 507 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,160 know about the climate change? Because people say the climate 508 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,440 deniers are so many. And then when I start to dissect 509 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,960 this and no, it's like 1-2 percent. 510 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,560 Yeah, it's or the anti vaxxers. Yeah, it's 2%, yeah. 511 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,440 This is where a deliberative process can help. 512 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,920 So I mean, the nice thing about running polls on peace polls 513 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,840 where there's conflicts is that everybody understands the 514 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,000 conflict. You can ask almost any question 515 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,160 you want, very rarely have to explain stuff to people. 516 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:17,720 Yeah, but I was working with Open AI on writing governance 517 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,920 for artificial intelligence and we were running polls in America 518 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:27,760 and we had to go through about a 1015 minute deliberative process 519 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:32,000 to explain what AI Rs and how it could go wrong and what it could 520 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,920 do. And, and before we could start 521 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,800 to ask questions. And of course we always in the, 522 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,480 in the, in the, in the demographics, we would ask 523 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,080 questions. Well, how much do you know about 524 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:46,640 AI? How often do you use it? 525 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,520 And then we could split out our our samples by the people who 526 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,960 are familiar with it and the people who are not familiar with 527 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,080 it, in addition to the deliberative process of 528 00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,920 explaining it before we actually got into asking people's 529 00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:02,200 opinions. But you don't have to do that in 530 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,400 a war zone. People understand the war very 531 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,400 well. That is true. 532 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,200 So deliberative process can help. 533 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:18,720 And one can do that in, in a poll, I mean, with the, with 534 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,280 the, with the digital dialogues that we've been doing, you can, 535 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,280 you can spend 1015 minutes explaining stuff before you 536 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,280 start asking questions. Yeah. 537 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,000 Yeah. And that then it's basically 538 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,800 like a focus group combined with a quantitative research. 539 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,240 And that, that it's, it's really fascinating what you can do now 540 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,360 with, with like a big online group with, with 1000 people. 541 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,320 So you, you can get up to 1000 people and it, it's like having 542 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:49,400 1000 people in a focus group. And but the, the advantage from 543 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,240 my point of view is that, I mean, the advantage of the focus 544 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:58,760 group is you, you have a dialogue, the, but everybody can 545 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,760 give their opinions anonymously when they're online. 546 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,480 So you're, you're not getting too much, you don't get too 547 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,960 much, you don't get groupthink. The trouble with the focus group 548 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,600 is you can end up in groupthink. Yeah, especially 1000 person. 549 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,360 Actually, there's a couple of very dominant individuals in the 550 00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:20,200 group, but you avoid that with the online digital dialogues, 551 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,560 digital focus groups, Yeah. So I think that's a big a big 552 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,160 plus. Yeah, yeah, it is. 553 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,600 After the pandemic, everyone got got used to online communication 554 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,400 It it really boosted the possibility to to use the 555 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:37,720 technology in in our field of work, I think and also using AI 556 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:42,720 to to quickly summarize large bodies of text that that is that 557 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,920 that is really useful then the other. 558 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,120 Providing 1 doesn't forget that it's always great to go and sit 559 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,320 down and have a coffee with someone for a couple of hours 560 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,400 and rarely find out what the what their point of view really 561 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,720 is. Yes, I think you should always 562 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,880 start there actually. Yes, yes, you should always 563 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,720 start there. That's the best starting point. 564 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,720 Yeah, then you can quantify exactly your theory is based on 565 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,200 that, because I think there's two different first you have to 566 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:13,240 build a theory base and that that is individual discussions, 567 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,880 I think just to get to different views and not just yes or no to 568 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,000 Brexit or whatever. It's more what? 569 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:21,360 What are you really talking about? 570 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,320 OK, well, it's a great chat. We understand what the problem 571 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:29,200 is Yeah, we and we know how to be truth tellers and we know 572 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,200 that it works. You, you had a, an immediate the 573 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,960 impact with your, the political party. 574 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:40,680 You, you had an intent to influence, but you did it works. 575 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,240 So how are we going to get to do this globally? 576 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,120 How are we going to get to do this all the time? 577 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:49,040 How are we going to make it the norm in society as opposed to 578 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,040 the exception? That's that's the thing. 579 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,960 That is the thing because I'm also part of the Board of 580 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,920 directors of Gallup International since the year 581 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,160 back and then are more active in way for and I realized these two 582 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:03,000 networks have a possibility to do this, but we have to find a 583 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,440 smart way of financing because as you said, everything is run 584 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,040 by money. That's not what you said, 585 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,560 getting the right people because maybe the economy benefits from 586 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,480 war, but not the society. If you start thinking of money 587 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,240 in a different way, peace is always more profitable than war. 588 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:26,000 So maybe actually I had a had a 17 podcast with with the 589 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,800 economist and I realized that their way of thinking of economy 590 00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,680 is destructive. That's not. 591 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,040 Yeah, because that also drives conflict. 592 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,200 It drives war. It drives. 593 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,440 Yes it does. Because people have no value in 594 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,520 the global economy. But we really need to think of 595 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,480 people as an asset in, in a, in a democratic society. 596 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:50,120 But but finding a way to to actually getting all these 597 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,520 people who actually do not want war. 598 00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:57,320 They actually want a good open society, not being driven by 599 00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,200 fear. There, there is something here, 600 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,840 but I I haven't found out exactly how, but every 601 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,920 discussion that I have with people like you, that's a 602 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:09,600 somehow maybe someday we will figure out how to do something. 603 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:15,000 Well, I, I, I asked that question last towards the end. 604 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,600 I guess we're getting on with our interview because I don't 605 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,560 have the answer yet. I'm sorry today if I had the 606 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:24,000 answer I'd be telling you, but I haven't. 607 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,360 I haven't gotten an answer. Yeah, yeah. 608 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:27,840 But. Everything but I haven't got an 609 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,120 answer yet. Yeah, but you are not alone, and 610 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:31,840 I'm not alone, and that's a good story. 611 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,159 Yeah. We, we're both thinking about 612 00:34:34,159 --> 00:34:36,440 this because I've been thinking about this for a couple of years 613 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,840 and I've met you a couple of times as as well during, during 614 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:41,360 the years. But but there's, there's, 615 00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,080 there's something here. It, it, as you said, we have the 616 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,679 tools we have, we have the wheel. 617 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,239 We just have to find a little bag of money. 618 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,960 It's not that much, as you said, it's not that expensive and it 619 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:58,600 has to be independent of bad guys vetoes because that's 620 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:02,520 what's messing up now. And I I have no problem with 621 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,800 going and doing a bit of polling on the cheap and say well if you 622 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,480 don't like the sample give me some real money and I'll get a 623 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,600 better sum. Yeah, I have problems with that 624 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,720 because I'm, I'm always that guy talking about representative 625 00:35:13,720 --> 00:35:15,160 sample. If you're not doing, I 626 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:16,640 understand yourself. Of course I do, yeah. 627 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,200 Yeah, just to trick people into actually doing good. 628 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,640 I think that that could be one way of doing. 629 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,120 It, I mean to get to get actually a good global sample 630 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,400 cost you about $1,000,000. I mean you can't, you can't get 631 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,040 a really good global sample for no less than that kind of money. 632 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:37,520 So, you know, I'd go out and get something a little less 633 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,720 expensive and then just just to prove my point that. 634 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,560 Is true. If you don't like it, give me a 635 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,760 million and I'll get you a representative sample of the 636 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,040 world. Maybe we should trick World 637 00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,120 Value Service into joining us as well. 638 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:55,320 What do you think? Well, I, I, I mean, we know all 639 00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:56,280 these guys. They're all. 640 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,360 Let's get more into this yeah game the. 641 00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,480 Difficulty is, well, with the kind of stuff I do with wars, I 642 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:08,080 mean, one should have been doing polling and it should have been 643 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,720 very public coming up to the war in Ukraine. 644 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,560 I mean, wars, wars like that should be tracked all the time. 645 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,520 You know, then people would perhaps be a little bit more 646 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:24,520 careful with with what they do. The cost is nothing. 647 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,040 The cost is nothing to the cost of war. 648 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,080 I mean, exactly, yeah. It's basically a couple of 649 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,240 missiles, to be honest. It's weird. 650 00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,120 Yeah, it's it's really cheap. But let let's keep thinking 651 00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,480 about this, OK? Yeah, I'm really glad you wanted 652 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,960 to have this discussion with me and hope the people listening 653 00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,000 would get a lot. Out when you figure it out when 654 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,120 you figure out the. The answer to the. $64,000 655 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,600 Question. Yeah. 656 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,960 Any day now, give me a call, let's have another chat. 657 00:36:53,240 --> 00:36:55,560 Yes, of course. OK. 658 00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:57,080 Thank you. Thank you. 659 00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:58,040 Very much. Thank you very much. 660 00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,720 OK, bye, bye.