1 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,520 Welcome to the podcast and I check Christophe Horfiger. 2 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,440 Hello, yeah, great to see you and great to hear you. 3 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,440 I'm an election nerd. I've been doing election 4 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,800 forecast for for pretty much exactly 30 years. 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:32,920 And this despite I didn't study statistics, I'm I'm actually 6 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,080 have a major in, in German literature, but I could never 7 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:41,440 decide between language and math in, in my biography. 8 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:45,600 So I'm running an institute, the Austrian Foresight Institute 9 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,120 that does a lot of Social Research. 10 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:54,080 And we, we have our meeting points between language and 11 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,280 math. For instance, designing a 12 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:01,160 questionnaire, what more wonderful place is there where 13 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:02,840 you have to think about language? 14 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,800 And then at the end what you get out are numbers that you can 15 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,560 build a strategy on. So I have 20 colleagues where we 16 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:14,040 analyzing not only elections, but things like labor market 17 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,600 housing. But I have to say I have many 18 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,840 passions in terms of research, but predicting and analyzing 19 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,040 elections is, I think, the most fun. 20 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,080 Yeah. And you just had one. 21 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,240 Why don't we start with the Western election? 22 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,360 The polls were quite correct, I think. 23 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:34,680 Yes, yeah, there was absolutely no debate about the quality of 24 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,280 polling this time. It was not even a sentence in 25 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,760 the newspapers which indicates that the polls were correct, so 26 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,280 nobody had anything to complain. Yeah, but people were still 27 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,160 shocked with the results, weren't they? 28 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:55,000 Well, it was, it was a first the Austrian Freedom Party, which we 29 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:59,800 could consider arriving populist party, which now almost every 30 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:04,720 country in Europe and and also the Republicans in the USA are 31 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:05,880 similar. No. 32 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:12,840 And have they had strong results in the past, But they never made 33 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:17,920 it like to the 1st place. They had a crisis five years ago 34 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:23,240 and and compared to the result five years ago, that result was 35 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:30,400 like also a record plus. And yeah, of course it seems to 36 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:38,320 be yeah, like a pretty, it could be a changing defining time 37 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:42,160 where where things change in Austria. 38 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,800 So it was. But as you said, from looking at 39 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,800 the polls, they were ahead for more than a year. 40 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:56,520 So it was not a surprise, but to some still a shock, that what 41 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,640 the polls had said for months and all and almost years, 42 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,080 eventually happened on September 29th. 43 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,440 And sometimes, maybe people hope the polls are wrong for once. 44 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,440 Because sometimes they are for, and just to give you a detail, 45 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:17,640 the the difference between the centre right Conservative Party, 46 00:03:17,640 --> 00:03:22,760 the People's Party and the Freedom Party was much smaller 47 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:24,760 on Election Day than the polls. That's it. 48 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:31,120 So there was like 4% difference between the polling average and 49 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:35,760 then the actual very narrow gap that happened on Election Day. 50 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,960 So some people thought, wow, maybe this time this happens 51 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:44,320 again, that the Conservative Party is actually outperforming 52 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,800 their polls, which they have done many times interestingly. 53 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,400 So in the past it was the Freedom Party that the right 54 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,520 wing populist that has been underestimated. 55 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,880 But in recent years it has been the, the moderate right wing 56 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,120 party that the centre right party that has been 57 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,200 underestimated. And, and until Election Day, you 58 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,000 didn't know if that would happen again. 59 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:08,160 And if it had happened to the same extent that they witnessed 60 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,960 it in the European election, the the Conservative Party would 61 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:13,920 have been #1 and not the Freedom Party. 62 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,079 Yeah. And, and, and that's interesting 63 00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:20,519 with the 4% difference because what, what I've seen in several 64 00:04:20,519 --> 00:04:24,480 countries, Sweden maybe mostly is, is a very high voter 65 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,800 volatility in the last couple of days. 66 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,160 People have a hard time actually deciding and, and in Sweden 67 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,840 between Friday and the Election Day on Sunday, actually 4% of 68 00:04:35,840 --> 00:04:38,640 the voter have changed their minds the last couple of 69 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,760 elections. Could it be something like that 70 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:44,720 in Austria? We have. 71 00:04:44,840 --> 00:04:51,360 We asked people the the question when they have decided and and 72 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:56,240 we have about 11% of the electorate or 11% of those who 73 00:04:56,240 --> 00:05:01,360 voted actually said in the last couple of days. 74 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:08,040 So we do our interviews for that survey in in the week to the 75 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:13,240 election. So we we could infer that a good 76 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:19,320 10% of voters decide basically in the last week and there is 77 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,320 another 13% who say well, couple 2, two or three weeks. 78 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:28,160 So this is a number that actually doesn't go up. 79 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:33,080 We have here some some interesting conflicting trends 80 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:38,400 and the most striking is that the Freedom Party voters, the 81 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:43,160 voters for the right wing populist movement, they decide 82 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:47,040 really, really early. That was different in the past. 83 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:52,560 In the past they were not so sure it was new, it was breaking 84 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,320 taboos. They also sometimes maybe that 85 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,600 was all had also to do with social desirability in the 86 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:04,880 polls, but in the past it took many Freedom Party voters a long 87 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,680 time and maybe they they just decided on Election Day or a 88 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:12,640 couple of days before. Now the Freedom Party and it's a 89 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,640 big asset for them. They have the biggest share of 90 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:19,880 voters who decide early and also stick with that decision. 91 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:24,400 That's part of the success. Now where's the more traditional 92 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,120 parties? Just to finish your thought, the 93 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:32,000 traditional parties have voters that are more insecure and for 94 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,480 expedite the People's Party voters, they also have more 95 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,760 alternatives. They think I'll be voting for 96 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:39,800 the small Liberal Party, the nails. 97 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:46,120 So even the traditional parties have voters who decide later, in 98 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:52,800 addition to the young typical parties like the Green Party or 99 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,400 the Liberals. That that is, that is really 100 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,480 interesting. It feels like it's the similar 101 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,360 thing as in Sweden actually, because when you go for this 102 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,160 right wing alternative party, there are different, different 103 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,760 reasons to go for them than than other parties. 104 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,520 Because basically you have decided that everyone else is 105 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,160 bad, the world is going in the wrong direction. 106 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:18,320 It's it's I, I, I usually call them like the emergency brake. 107 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,520 And there's not much positive happening in the world right 108 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,280 now. And so, so that's an appeal for 109 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,120 these kinds of parties are quite big. 110 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,240 And I would guess it's the similar because what would 111 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,080 happen in the last time of the election, because I will also 112 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,000 suspect that it's the same that people know what this party 113 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,120 stands for. But the other parties are trying 114 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,320 to find their their new footing, trying to find their new, new, 115 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,880 new message all the way into the Election Day. 116 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,600 So it's quite hard to say. Yeah, this part, that's all. 117 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,280 We have these kinds of values, but probably the right wing 118 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,760 alternative parties, they are the ones who do not have to 119 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,880 repeat their values because people know about them. 120 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,960 Could that be something and say is the same in Austria? 121 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:02,760 Well, they have. They are very coherent and 122 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:10,280 professional in the messaging. And that means that people have 123 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,480 the feeling that they know, as you pointed it out, what they 124 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,080 are standing for. You called it emergency break. 125 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:22,560 That reminds me at a like infamous political ad, but it's 126 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:27,160 very good Democrats like I think it was eight years ago where 127 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:31,040 they actually literally had like an emergency brake in in their 128 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:35,000 ad, which if I remember was banned from Swedish TV, but was 129 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:39,400 a hit on YouTube and the message of parties like the Freedom 130 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,080 Party. That's very good Democrats. 131 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:46,240 But even a movement like Trump, which who dominates the 132 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:51,480 Republican Party is, let me put it that way, a very skeptical 133 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:56,640 attitude towards the so-called elites, but also putting the 134 00:08:56,680 --> 00:09:01,160 entire rest of the political system into that elite basket. 135 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:07,160 So the idea of the Freedom Party and any writing populist party 136 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:14,280 is let's seem, let's make our voters believe that the rest of 137 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:18,320 the political system is not really diverse, that there are 138 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:22,840 even no conflict of interest among the other parties, that 139 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,400 they even conspire with each other against US, against the 140 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:31,960 true people. So there is a big skepticism of 141 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,920 the Freedom Party voters towards the political system. 142 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,720 They are less the least likely to say that democracy is the 143 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,320 best system. They still say to like a 144 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,400 majority extent, but they also have the most doubts about 145 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,400 democracy as, as as a political system. 146 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:57,880 And in surveys, the if you ask them what's the likelihood as a 147 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,040 Freedom Party voted that you eventually would also vote for a 148 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,520 different party. And the the the Freedom Party 149 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,600 voted, they gave the least indication that they would 150 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:14,680 change again to another party. They had some big exchange with 151 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,960 the center right party, the People's Party under the era of 152 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,640 Sebastian Kurz. Sebastian Kurz, the former 153 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,280 chancellor, he attracted a lot of voters from the Freedom 154 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:27,400 Party, especially, let's say in two steps to 17 in a regular 155 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,240 campaign, to 19 in a campaign where the Freedom Party had a 156 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:34,040 crisis. But now they all went back and 157 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:39,080 it seems like they went back to the Freedom Party to stay there 158 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,040 and they either don't vote or vote for the Freedom Party but 159 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,880 don't really consider the other parties of the political system 160 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,440 as a true option anymore. Yeah. 161 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,080 And that really also seems to be a big trend. 162 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,640 And Austria had its political crisis also with Kurds. 163 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,600 So maybe they then got convinced that, OK, they cannot be 164 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,800 trusted. So and also that there is a lot 165 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,960 of conspiracies because they've got their view of a proof 166 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,200 probably with the governmental crisis or what do you think? 167 00:11:08,680 --> 00:11:11,960 It was interesting that the Freedom Party was shaken by a 168 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:18,280 scandal in 219 and they actually lost a lot of votes then gains 169 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,560 this year compared to 2 elections ago is actually not 170 00:11:21,560 --> 00:11:24,360 the big day. They have roughly 3% more than 171 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,240 seven years ago, but five years ago they stumbled into a crisis. 172 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,160 Video leaked of the former party leader. 173 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:39,080 He was in Ibiza, he was secretly taped video and Mr. Strafford, 174 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,120 the former leader was just bragging about how we how it's 175 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:48,040 basically sell the country to it was a fake oligarch, it was an 176 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:52,120 actress, but he had to resign. It was impossible that he could 177 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,360 stay power. And then that shook the party. 178 00:11:54,720 --> 00:12:01,480 And what happened afterwards is that then the so Sebastian Kurz 179 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:05,240 got a lot of votes from the Freedom Party, but then he 180 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:09,280 himself that like into trouble for corruption scandals and 181 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,040 eventually had to resign. So he formed the government with 182 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,000 the Green Party into 19 end of 19. 183 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,320 And the government survived all those five years, the entire 184 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,120 period. But Sebastian Kurz could not 185 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,360 stay in his position because there were corruption charges 186 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:31,280 and and he's also on trial and the whole thing has also not 187 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,720 been worked through the finish line at the court. 188 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,840 So there's still a lot to go. So, but the Freedom Party said, 189 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:42,480 well, you know, we changed our personnel and we closed the 190 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,720 chapter and now the corruption problem is a problem that 191 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:49,720 different parties have, especially the info pay the 192 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:56,080 center right party. So they completely, they were 193 00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:00,680 completely able to leave all the corruption charges behind them. 194 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,000 It's history nobody seems to remember. 195 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:09,000 And, and their voters said, OK, that's we dealt with it. 196 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:13,320 It's it's over. So it's actually surprising how 197 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:18,920 quickly a party can, like a phoenix from the ashes, leave 198 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:24,120 corruption scandals behind it, which of course has to do with 199 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:30,480 times that are really challenging times where we went 200 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,800 through a pandemic, through inflation, war in Ukraine, and 201 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,400 where other parties also are shaken by scandals. 202 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:43,040 I think that's an international trend that parties can stumble, 203 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:48,520 can have a crisis, but can also quickly re emerge, surprisingly 204 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,440 and astoundingly quickly re emerge and gain strength because 205 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:58,120 there's so much dynamic with a multiple crisis externally and 206 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,880 within the party system. Yeah, it's fascinating. 207 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,560 And what is the appeal they almost got? 208 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,360 It was 28.8% of the votes I think, or something like that. 209 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,800 28.9 maybe. But what is the appeal? 210 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,440 What I understand it's the immigration and probably crime 211 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,360 as well, but what's your take on this? 212 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:20,480 Well, I usually try to look at the party success or what I had 213 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:25,480 a success of political candidate, not in terms of 214 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:31,040 issues, but in terms of the general message and the central 215 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,120 narrative. And the central narrative of the 216 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:39,600 Freedom Party, which is similar to to their sister parties 217 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:47,920 globally, is that the so-called elites lost empathy for you, the 218 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:52,600 voter. So that's that central narrative 219 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:57,160 that those who actually would have to take care of you to 220 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:02,720 protect you have forgotten this because either they're corrupt 221 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:09,000 or they're conspiring, or they just lost their ambitions or 222 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:14,200 like betrayed their values. So this central narrative then 223 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,080 is going to be illustrated with the issues. 224 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:23,080 And of course, immigration is something that serves here, but 225 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:28,080 it's not only that. What we observed is something 226 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:34,080 really a break in the psychology of voters, like a disruptive 227 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:39,080 development that I have not witnessed in 30 years. 228 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:45,640 And that happened in 22, in 22, Russia invaded Ukraine and then 229 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:50,600 we had actually with some already developing before, but 230 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,560 then we had a sudden crisis in energy prices and huge 231 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,320 inflation. And Austria was hit by inflation 232 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,080 even more than the European average. 233 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:05,360 And we have a standard questions where we ask people when it 234 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,880 comes to that issue. Is your primary emotion 235 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:13,960 optimism, confidence the German what is to facet so that the 236 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:21,160 positive emotion, is it soldier in German which is very or are 237 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,960 you angry? So we give them three options, 238 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:30,880 optimism, very or anger. And never, ever have we observed 239 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:38,120 that any of the issues had an level of more than 20% of anger 240 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,440 in the population. So even when we asked him how do 241 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:47,760 you feel about integration, immigration, asylum, we had of 242 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,360 course, people that were worried, we had people that were 243 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:58,120 confident, but the anger never topped 20% in 22. 244 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:04,839 In 2022, we observed this fascinating and also shocking 245 00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:10,160 change that when we ask people about inflation or energy 246 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:15,280 prices, suddenly 50% in the poll said their emotion when they 247 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,400 look at that are confronted with that is anger. 248 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:23,160 We never had this. So all the time in the past, the 249 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:28,079 entire past, we stayed below 20% with anger as a reaction to 250 00:17:28,079 --> 00:17:30,920 developments. And now with the energy crisis 251 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:35,600 and inflation, it went up to 40 and sometimes 50%. 252 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,680 That also helped the Freedom Party and it's also helping 253 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:45,040 other parties a lot because people felt also betrayed here. 254 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:51,680 They thought, OK, we we have an energy system that that kind of 255 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,960 should be affordable. Then they had to pay energy 256 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,400 bills that that were almost unaffordable. 257 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,680 And the next year, they learned that some of the energy, energy 258 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:05,560 utilities, part of them in public, owned by the public like 259 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,320 state bodies, had record profits. 260 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,760 And anger is always the emotion that helps right wing properties 261 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,440 movements, be it in Sweden, be it in the Netherlands, in 262 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:20,320 Austria or in the United States. That's really interesting. 263 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,880 And it is a mystery that the volatility of the pricing system 264 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,880 happening in Europe, it hit the the consumer 100%. 265 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,360 And as you said, the energy companies made record profits. 266 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,240 So that it really is a flawed market. 267 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,120 And in that perspective, because for the consumer it's a 268 00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:39,640 monopoly. But at the same time, it was not 269 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,760 treated as, as a, as a real disaster that was influenced by 270 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:48,440 by war in Ukraine. It was treated as traditional 271 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,440 economic terms, ignoring that we had a war in Ukraine, which is I 272 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:57,240 think maybe most voters also realize that this is this is not 273 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,800 looking out for the voters best interests, who's working for who 274 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,760 here. I wish I'd had that scale that 275 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,280 you did, because it was a really interesting one, looking at hope 276 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,880 and worry and anger, because yeah, I'll take that to me 277 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,040 actually and see if I can apply it somewhere. 278 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,120 That's a great idea. So we, we could compare like the 279 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:24,040 like Swedish respondents and, and Austrian respondents. 280 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:31,240 And it it seems that by finding about about those basic 281 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:39,480 emotions, we we can explain a part of the dynamic and the 282 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:45,120 politics try for decades, try to say, OK, let's be rational and 283 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,800 explain things. But like, especially with the 284 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,200 energy crisis, and you've just mentioned it before, nobody 285 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,920 could explain what happened in a way that people thought, OK, I 286 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,520 do understand in an emotional way, like in a way that I think, 287 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,520 OK, this just had to be this way. 288 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,640 Yeah. It left them upset. 289 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,040 And another and another thing just to add it is. 290 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,800 What made people upset in Austria and maybe less in Sweden 291 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:16,000 here was the the pandemic and the reaction to it. 292 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,760 So that that added another component of anger for a part of 293 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,360 the electorate. But it's, it's not that big of a 294 00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:28,720 part. But my assessment here is that 295 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:34,280 the Freedom Party probably would not be #1 without the pandemic 296 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,680 and some of the policy measures and how they were explained. 297 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:43,200 In Austria, we had a very especially unlucky measure, 298 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:47,200 which was at some point late in the pandemic was a mandatory 299 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,360 COVID vaccine, which I, when I heard about that, people were 300 00:20:50,360 --> 00:20:54,840 talking about it. I, I tried actually to, I called 301 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,760 up people in the administration and, and said, don't you do 302 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:02,520 that, You will, because we did studies also. 303 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,040 This is also part of my institute, the Forsett 304 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,360 Institute. We investigated how many people 305 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,440 are ready to get a COVID shot like a vaccine. 306 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,720 And in Austria we were already at the plateau, at the ceiling. 307 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,240 We managed that. More than 80% of the population 308 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,680 got at least one COVID vaccine. And when we did a study about 309 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:30,120 that end of it was 21 when we when we had the vaccine, we said 310 00:21:30,120 --> 00:21:34,440 that's the absolute limit. You cannot top that even with 311 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,360 the mandatory vaccine. That and that just the only 312 00:21:37,360 --> 00:21:42,520 thing that did is created some like need perception. 313 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,400 I need to self defend myself for those who really didn't want to 314 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:50,120 get vaccinated. And I'm personally absolutely 315 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,560 pro vaccine. I got I don't know how many 316 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,640 COVID vaccines I got in my life. And I think it's a wonderful 317 00:21:55,640 --> 00:22:00,120 thing, but I actually do really emotionally understand people 318 00:22:00,120 --> 00:22:04,240 who felt absolutely cornered when they were told they need to 319 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,000 have a mandatory vaccine. It was like the first political 320 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:11,800 decision, in my view, ever taken in Austria after World War 2. 321 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:17,200 I remember also that Austria were most skeptical to getting 322 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,560 vaccinated than most other Europeans or many other 323 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,480 Europeans, because I remember that. 324 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:28,320 But also in Sweden, almost everyone got the vaccination 325 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,480 because we, we always do what we're told to good or bad. 326 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,520 But but the same time there was, it was not mandatory. 327 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:41,880 So and having this big skepsis, which which I'd love to hear if 328 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,080 you have some theories about, but then making it mandatory. 329 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,800 I, I agree with you. That is political disaster. 330 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,640 You really overreaching your power by doing that. 331 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,800 I can I can imagine the reaction. 332 00:22:55,680 --> 00:23:00,520 And, and the irony is that and, and that like, there was like 333 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,240 absolutely no movement in the vaccination rate. 334 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:08,640 It also coincided with variants that were less harmful. 335 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,600 And, and, and the data shows us what happened. 336 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,480 We asked 15 topics in our service about the Austrian 337 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:21,680 election last September, and the the pandemic was the topic 338 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:26,440 people talked about the least Accept the Freedom Party voters. 339 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,800 For the Freedom Party voters, it was among the topics they 340 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:34,600 actually really discussed. And then I did a fun correlation 341 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,560 model. I looked we have 2000 towns in 342 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:43,360 Austria, towns in villages. So I compared the vaccination 343 00:23:43,360 --> 00:23:47,800 rate for COVID with the gains of the Freedom Party. 344 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,720 And there's a huge correlation between low vaccination rate and 345 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:56,160 the gains of the Freedom Party. So I thought this must be some 346 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,320 cool variants. And I have to find other 347 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:02,600 variables that this disappears. And I could maybe explain it by 348 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:07,920 urbanity or education or age or income or whatever it is. 349 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,120 And it was impossible. So I have like now let's say 12 350 00:24:12,120 --> 00:24:17,040 variables in my model trying to explain on the municipal level, 351 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:22,560 on the city level, the gains of the Freedom Party and still the 352 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,800 vaccination rate. So a low vaccination rate is the 353 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,920 strongest predictor of the Freedom Party gains. 354 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,320 So of course it's not a causation that if you're 355 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,000 thinking causation, you would say, oh, those are vaccinated, 356 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,560 they have a chip inside by Bill Gates and that's why they vote 357 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,880 for the other parties. That would be direct causation. 358 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,680 So we cannot. So you can we rule out that that 359 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,080 hypothesis, But of course there's an indirect position, 360 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:52,640 which is that people who were skeptical about the vaccine then 361 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,880 felt really cornered and said what the only party who's like 362 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,240 could be on the side is the Freedom Party. 363 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:05,480 And also maybe those were the communities that have like anti 364 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,240 system attitude. And so there's a long shadow. 365 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:15,840 And with all this evidence, I am actually concluding that without 366 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:20,400 the pandemic and the reaction of the government to it, they may 367 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,680 have a different situation. Who's number one now? 368 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:28,160 It may have been those decisive 3% or 2 1/2 percent that would 369 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,240 give the Freedom Party in the first place. 370 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,880 Yeah, that's really interesting and also just proves that people 371 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:40,400 actually remember, which I think political consultants need to to 372 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,880 remember as well, that people actually live in this world 373 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:49,240 every day, not just during the election weeks where you try to 374 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,000 tell them how to think or, or act. 375 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,960 So, so, but at the same time, it's really interesting. 376 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,320 We would that they actually could leave the scandal in that 377 00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,760 way, but maybe they got saved because other scandals. 378 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:06,880 Last time we met, we, we talked about hedgehogs and foxes and 379 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,960 super forecasters. So, so why, why not touch on 380 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,480 that issue a little bit before we, we have to end? 381 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,960 Because I think it's I, I really like the ideas and I think good 382 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:21,680 researchers need to be foxes because the, the, I think it's 383 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,320 Philip Tetlock, isn't it? Who, who's who's written a book 384 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,000 about this? And, and it's based on the idea 385 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:32,160 that hedgehog knows one big thing and foxes knows a lot of 386 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,200 small things. And for us, being in almost 387 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:40,360 every topic during a year, it's good to be a fox. 388 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:46,080 Especially in times like 2024 where new things happen all the 389 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,960 time and and society is really mobile and and dynamic. 390 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,640 Yeah, and I think you're you're, you even met Tetlock, didn't 391 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,360 you? No, I haven't met him 392 00:26:55,360 --> 00:26:58,880 personally. I've I'm in in touch with. 393 00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:02,480 So there's the good judgement project and, and this is like a 394 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:10,320 free platform where everyone can join to forecast events and some 395 00:27:10,360 --> 00:27:15,160 of those who are very good at the forecast, they eventually 396 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,400 become super forecasters. So this is a very small group 397 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:23,600 because the the fascinating work of Phil Tetlock is and and I 398 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:28,000 think everyone should read his work because he made progress 399 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,480 with something that otherwise we would still like it drive in the 400 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:35,520 dark a little bit. He was upset about expert 401 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,320 political judgement. We all know the pundits who are 402 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,720 in TVA lot and they are so self confident and say, I am telling 403 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,560 you this is going to be like that and this is going to be 404 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,160 like that. And those who are. 405 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,760 And so there's a correlation between self-confidence and the 406 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:56,080 frequency one is being invited to ATV studio or maybe to a 407 00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:00,360 podcast. But what Ted talk found out that 408 00:28:00,360 --> 00:28:06,520 their predictions were like accurate in in a rate of like 409 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:12,360 55%, you know, this is like 5% better than the dart throwing 410 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,000 monkey, so to speak. And that's, I mean, that's, 411 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:20,080 that's like the the crass image that says, well, don't trust 412 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,840 people who are very self confident in TV that they know 413 00:28:23,120 --> 00:28:26,760 the future. And he wanted to systematically 414 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:32,800 evaluate that and and he found out that a system where people, 415 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:40,280 diverse people constantly updating their forecasts and 416 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,680 looking at the other forecasts are pretty good if you then 417 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:49,040 average out there forecasts. And he put together a group and 418 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,560 that was the beginning of the good judgement project in 419 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:57,880 predicting global events. And they outperformed the 420 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,880 military people who had access to classified information. 421 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,280 His group didn't have access to this classified information, but 422 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:10,480 their forecasts were better. So Ted look found out that with 423 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:16,360 the right system, you can just put regular people together and 424 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:20,800 make pretty amazing forecasts. And I'm, I'm doing this as a 425 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:25,520 hobby and, and I got a lot of predictions out now for the US 426 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:26,880 election. We'll see. 427 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:28,840 I was pretty good in the midterms. 428 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,560 I was, I was like in the top percent forecasters in the 429 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,680 midterms. But this time I'm not so sure 430 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:41,840 because I had a low probability that Donald Trump would win on 431 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,960 November 5. And now we'll see how. 432 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,800 I still don't know if he's going to win, but I may have been 433 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,560 wrong about this because he may actually win and then my 434 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:57,920 prediction would be bad. And but I I like the idea of 435 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,200 that lock that what you mentioned is that that we never 436 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,320 should just be in love with our model. 437 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,400 That's the the hedgehog. The hedgehog likes to have this 438 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:12,360 one thing and then he he goes back to his pile of leaves and 439 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,880 he's so happy with this one thing and he just doesn't want 440 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,920 to sneak out under his pile of leaves. 441 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,840 He's just happy with the one thing some people in academia 442 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,320 do, that they come up with one model and they fall in love with 443 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,000 it and do it until the end of their days. 444 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:34,400 But I think we, we as social scientists and as especially as 445 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,120 forecasters, we need to be radically open. 446 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:42,480 And that's what he calls foxes. And just to get any information 447 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:48,360 and, and have several models like actually the meteorologists 448 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:52,000 do, and they have become really good at predicting the weather 449 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,760 much better than than in the 90s or even 20 years ago. 450 00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:01,520 And not everyone has like the character for that because you 451 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,680 got to, you know, psychologically, you got to be 452 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,240 an open person. If you're not an open person, 453 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,960 like being a fox and always getting new information makes 454 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:16,360 you crazy. So, yeah, but it's, it's a 455 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:21,720 really relevant insight and it's it's it's very good to carry 456 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,400 that into any form of prediction. 457 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,440 But also, yeah, I guess when you are making a questionnaire and a 458 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,160 new study that you would have a similar attitude. 459 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:32,720 Yeah. And that's the thing because 460 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,040 although I'm trying hard to not do predictions at all, I'm 461 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,520 trying to stick in the, in the present because I think that is 462 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,040 my little niche. But you still need to have this 463 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,600 open mind. You still need to because as, as 464 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,680 you said before, it's, it's turning into numbers, but those 465 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,760 numbers are then turned into two stories and words and 466 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,600 explanations. So, so the numbers are just only 467 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,360 our, our fundamentals that we, we lean on to, to describe what 468 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,920 is actually happening. And I, I think that is often 469 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,280 forgotten with, with, with the research industry that, but then 470 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,960 you really need to be open minded to understand, OK, Look, 471 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,080 energy prices, for instance, as, as we mentioned before, or, or, 472 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:18,480 or the aversion for vaccination, understanding how vital that 473 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,280 could be to, to some people and how dangerous it could be to 474 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,240 force such a decision on, on people who do not want to, and, 475 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,720 and, and how that is then being strengthening to see. 476 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,560 OK, the government do not trust me. 477 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,240 They, they do only care about my money. 478 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,440 I should not, they don't want me to vote. 479 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:43,040 They just want me to comply. And yeah, I really love the 480 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,280 books from Tetlock and, and also Nate Silver's book is also 481 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,960 really interesting from a, from a prediction perspective. 482 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:55,240 But but same time, most of the things we do are the foundations 483 00:32:55,240 --> 00:33:00,400 for the predictions, which going back to the US, yeah, it's hard 484 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:06,160 now because my prediction, although I don't do any, is that 485 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:11,480 the polls are very unreliable and and because it doesn't make 486 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,520 sense anymore. Look at the movement in the 487 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,320 campaigns. Look at how much money Harris 488 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,480 is, is, is getting. Look at the support she's 489 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:25,840 getting from from from popular people like Bruce Springsteen 490 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:31,160 and Eminem and yeah, everyone. And you do not see it in the 491 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,800 polls. That is weird. 492 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,360 Usually you see that in the polls to a larger extent. 493 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,320 And, and when people listen to this, they, they may or may 494 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,920 already know the result, but when now that we're recording 495 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,520 it, we don't know it yet. So it's really suspenseful. 496 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:53,280 Well, there's actually 2 explanations for the the 497 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,800 stability of the polls in the in the United States. 1 is that 498 00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:00,680 actually it's a very polarized electorate, but not much is 499 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,160 happening. The other explanation would be 500 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:09,360 the the phenomenon of hurting that the posters do not really 501 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:15,239 dare to publish deviant results. I mean, there were a few 502 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:20,320 differences stressed out. There were also differences in 503 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,560 polls. They had a method of logical 504 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:26,120 debate. Are we using recall weight, 505 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:30,840 actually trying to adapt the sample to the to the election 506 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:35,560 result of 220? I think now everybody in the US 507 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:41,560 is using the weight is like trying to balance out college 508 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,400 graduates with the rest of the population that that was that 509 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:49,120 their big shock in 216 where where they found out, oops, we 510 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:53,480 have too many college graduates in in our samples and no wonder 511 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:58,440 we we underestimated Trump. So there is some methodological 512 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:04,400 debate here. What I find we will know more 513 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:10,880 after the election, but it seems that a few groups are actually 514 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,480 moving in quite some fascinating terms. 515 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:18,040 But for instance, I find interesting maybe also be 516 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:23,160 shocking is that Democrats do really well with young women, 517 00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:31,240 but chancy men seem to have like a tendency to to like Trump or 518 00:35:31,240 --> 00:35:34,680 maybe try like Trump even more than than Harris. 519 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:40,840 And which also something we will know more about in in the future 520 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:46,600 weeks, which is also something that would like contradict like 521 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:52,120 a stable image is that the African American population and 522 00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:56,080 the Latino population is not secured for the Democrats 523 00:35:56,080 --> 00:36:00,640 anymore. And if that really happens and 524 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:05,200 in the end it's still 5050 or like a very similar result and 525 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,480 only on the surface it's the same result. 526 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:13,920 But like below the surface, maybe Democrats have lost a huge 527 00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:18,400 chunk of the Latino vote, a huge chunk of at least of the younger 528 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,440 African American or the male African American vote. 529 00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:27,240 But maybe they have gained in the suburbs and, and people with 530 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,640 diplomas. So that is actually a 531 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:35,440 fascinating thing, which is coherent with research 2 authors 532 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,840 in the US call it the the diploma divide that actually 533 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,520 the, the Democrats have been the party of the working class. 534 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,400 But now they, they, they've become more and more the party 535 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:52,440 of the, the educated elite. And Trump is getting the working 536 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:58,120 class and you see the Uberis Democrats, some Democrats, not 537 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,000 all of them thought, well, our society is getting more diverse 538 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,640 over the years. We got the Latinos in our 539 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,480 pocket. The African Americans are going 540 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,360 to vote for us like forever in the more diverse society is 541 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,400 going to like guarantee us majorities in the future. 542 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:18,720 That was the attitude and it wasn't, but it was not a good 543 00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:21,800 prediction, as we can see today. No, exactly. 544 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,200 Trump turned everything upside down because even the 545 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,760 Republicans thought they would never win an election again 546 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,520 after Obama. But yeah, and but, but I also, I 547 00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,720 think the biggest challenge now is, is this is a turn out race. 548 00:37:35,720 --> 00:37:39,000 And, and as you mentioned, young, young women who usually 549 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,960 don't vote to that extent, especially if you have a low 550 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:46,080 income and an election is on on a Tuesday, it's, it's not really 551 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:51,080 easy to to to actually skip, skip work to, to stand in queue 552 00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:55,280 for hours. So, So the early voting and 553 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,880 which has neutralized that issue to to some extent. 554 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,800 Yeah, it will be a really exciting race. 555 00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,040 And that maybe for us nerds, it will be even more exciting the 556 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:10,000 days after understanding how the polls actually worked in, in 557 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,800 relations to the real world. So. 558 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,440 Yeah. And just the United States show 559 00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:20,520 that we have to be really humble with predictions. 560 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:24,760 There's so many predictions that actually did not work out. 561 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:29,920 In terms of the USI, you know, we both know each other from, 562 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,080 from the European Association of Political Consultants. 563 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,280 So I used to be in, I went to this, I've been going to these 564 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,600 conferences that I really love for more than 20 years. 565 00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,520 And and also the IIPC, the International Association, our 566 00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,040 sister organization. And I was usually talking about 567 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:52,520 our right wing populism, like we had your Qaeda in the 90s. 568 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,880 And the Americans listened politely, but it was like, as if 569 00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:00,440 I was telling them about like a disease that they have never 570 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,000 encountered. And so, OK, are you OK these 571 00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,640 Austrians with their populism disease? 572 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:10,520 And everyone listened politely, but no one in of the US 573 00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,400 consultants ever thought that something similar could happen 574 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:17,440 in the United States. Actually, I also did not expect 575 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:23,640 it and I still remember 216 when all the predictions said that 576 00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:29,280 Hillary Clinton would win and Nate Silver was still the 577 00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:34,880 closest by saying Trump has a 29% chance and he was better 578 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,400 than the rest. But still no one really thought 579 00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,480 that Trump would win. Before that, no one ever thought 580 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,600 he could secure the nomination of the Republican Party. 581 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,880 There was another wrong prediction. 582 00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,120 He got the nomination. Then the next prediction that 583 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,840 was wrong is that he could never become president. 584 00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,960 Then the next prediction would be that he would like become a 585 00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,200 normal president once he was in office. 586 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:04,840 But he he, he, he spat out like. A couple of 100 lies every day, 587 00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,360 even in the office, and then he staged an insurrection. 588 00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,160 I think no one would have predicted like January 6th, 589 00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:17,480 2021. Then this year there were so 590 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,440 many things that were hard to predict. 591 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:24,120 So the US makes us really humble in being too sure about what the 592 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,160 future is going to bring. Yeah, yeah, that, that is 593 00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,600 actually really true. And that is also why why I'm not 594 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:33,800 trying to do predictions. I usually say that when you get 595 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,560 lost, the problem isn't that you don't know where you're going, 596 00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,040 is that you're actually wrong on where you are at the moment. 597 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,840 So I, I, I like to stay in the moment as much as possible, a 598 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,760 little bit safer, but it's still very, very interesting. 599 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,560 And maybe that is the time we have as well. 600 00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,760 And your words were were perfect ending for that, I think. 601 00:40:52,240 --> 00:40:53,760 Thank you so much for joining me. 602 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,040 It was a pleasure, thank you too.