Good morning, good morning, everyone, GM, GM and welcome to
another episode of Homo Hour today.
Today is Tuesday, June 10 point .5 folks, the all time high
waiting rooms are open. We're in there.
A few tokens have already gotten there late last night or this
morning. It looks like Bitcoin.
It's close. It's it's edging a little bit,
dipping a bit here this morning. The question on everyone's
minds, are we going to get it today or not?
We're going to break it down on today's show.
No faroke. He is traveling, but we've got
Mando on. We've got Logan on with us.
Mando, Jim, how you doing? I'm doing great.
How are you, man? I'm good.
I woke up to a very green board. It was it was electric Grant.
So a very nice, nice start to the day.
And it feels like we're moving. It feels like there's something
in the air to me. At least that's how I'm that's
how I'm feeling right now. Yeah.
I mean, I said what I said to you yesterday, like I think I
think the thing I've been even picking up on is the staking
ETFs that I think is going to be the most probably approved this
month with BlackRock have been in asking for this for a while.
And then we have a number of different firms actually close
to that. And I think if that was to
happen, I think you got you have a little bit.
And then there was some comments yesterday from the SEC chair
basically being like Defy, don't worry about it.
We're we're we're not going to come after you guys anymore.
And so you had all the big Defy coins rally quite a lot.
And I think that's yeah, just a really good sign.
So I've, I think now, you know, I've been bullish on earth for a
little bit now. I think now it's got the
narrative that you need it to right before it was just like,
oh, it's rallying and like what's going on now It's got
like some semi reason for why you can't be bullish.
Oh my God sake, ETF. I don't even know how big that's
going to be, but like there's just a thing that people can say
it's that. And so if that gets delivered,
then you can see a rally. Do you know what I mean?
Or I think the other thing is just D5 stuff.
So it's like, oh, D5 is something about to explode.
Like I think I'm now just like waiting for the point where like
the narrative starts to make sense and that it's, it's
suddenly did pretty recently. So I'm, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm
relatively bullish now on, on where things are going to go.
He he was narrative less. Basically the only narrative was
it's a catch up trade. It's oversold.
Yeah, but now there's some more substantial ones.
So we'll get into it some definitely some big pieces of
news there. Plus we've also got Logan back
for the first time in what feels like weeks, several weeks.
Logan, GM, how you doing? Hey.
Good morning. Yeah, it has been a a couple
weeks, but a couple of good weeks.
I think last time I was on Bitcoin might have been around
9596, something like that. Wow.
So yeah, it feels much better, of course, waking up today, the
green on the board and you know what, maybe those easy Rd., you
know those mile markers for the easy Rd., they might be
approaching and who knows, hopefully.
Are we going? Are we going to be on the Easy
Rd. Perhaps even as soon as this
week? That's what the M2 chart tells
us, but not everyone is buying it.
We'll get into it on today's show, folks.
What are we talking about? We're going to start with the
market report. As always, we got more Bitcoin
treasuries spinning up. These ETS are on a 16 day streak
now. We've got, as Mando mentioned,
that some bullish D5 commentary out of the SEC Chair Paul Atkins
hype. It's a new all time high.
The launch coin ecosystem rebounding quite a bit.
Folks are already running out their annualized revenue
graphics. You love to see that pump fun.
Was it saved by this verse token yesterday, which came out of
nowhere and ran to a billion? We've got other meme leaders on
the move. Virtual's moving to ETH this O
cap games race thruster, winding down OPS and more a lot to get
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We love our partners as always. All right, Mando, if you're
ready, let's get into it. Who is the man Macro daddy of
the land? Can you dig it?
GM everyone. So yeah, it's it's been a decent
day. I think bit mix for Bitcoin, but
for all coins we've had a a decent run up.
As I said yesterday, it feels like the crux of this is to do
with the comments by the SC CS chair yesterday basically being
like we're OK on D5 now. You saw a bunch of D5 coins
rally pretty aggressively on the back of that, which was mainly
Ave. was the big one. And then you've had hype hitting
you all time high off the back of that too.
I think hype was mentioned in Washington yesterday and I think
the other one's uni uni swap had a decent move.
So this whole ETH ecosystem ETF I think suddenly kind of got a
narrative behind it and you've seen a big rally I think in in
ETH and then kind of ETH related coins.
Some of the ETH betas did well to be fair, some of some of some
of the generic betas did well. Like we've seen a big move in
things like far coin. Obviously they've got Coinbase
and they I think Coinbase just had a perps as well for them.
So dominating in terms of volume.
So it feels like coins that you want to own are doing well.
I don't think we're seeing like I don't think we're seeing a
broad based altcoin season. And I treat that out just before
we went live. Like I don't think we're going
to see a broad based altcoin season just because it doesn't
feel like there's enough new people that have come in to buy
altcoins. I think just buy the coins,
which is strong. Do you know what I mean?
It will happen from the hype is a good coin to buy right now
because it's struck the the market is strong that'll rally
far coins market. It's a coin that most people
will have on their list of potential buy it rallied.
I think Ave. maybe is it's own like select thing because has
this relationship with ETH at the moment has a fee switch.
But after the and after the circle IPO, there's some look at
like D5 coins having a decent move.
But Ave. is another one which which feels very much ETH beta,
But but other than that, I'm I'm not wary of like FOMO.
And I think you kind of seen that like the other L ones, Sui
Solana, like they're they're doing OK, but like they don't
feel like they don't feel like you're sitting there some
raging. Like that's a 158, like it's
kind of art, but it's also unchanged in the week.
So I'd be very wary just like we're about to see everything go
to all time high again. I think.
I think we're going to see as always with all coins, he's now
pockets of stuff which outperforms and I would probably
go with the trend on on stuff that you think is going to
outperform. So hype has been such an obvious
one for a while, but there's been there's obviously a few
more in that sort of world. That was it because of like the
the the main top down crypto news.
There's obviously more companies coming saying that they're going
to buy Bitcoin. That's happens every single day.
But I think Ethan ecosystem is kind of taking the taking the
majority of the focus right now. And then you, as I said to
Tyler, I think we will hear about staking ETFs soon.
I just get the feeling that that is going to be the headline and
it may be for Ethan Solana or it may just be for ETH.
But it feels as though we're going to hear about, I think
we're going to hear about that in the next month or so.
State ETF, state ETH hit an all time high actually overnight,
which I think is an interesting move.
But and I'm not the the biggest EEF bull of all time.
I think you can tell I've been pretty, pretty against it, But I
do think it's got a it's got this like narrative now where it
can it can push on. Yesterday macro was pretty
quiet. Actually.
Tesla is taking a lot of the focus just because of what Trump
and and Elon were doing. But this period has been a
period of rising bond yields, stocks actually heading towards
roughly all time highs, but really big moves in a lot of
commodities. So gold has kind of stuck in
around all time high, but you have silver hitting all time
close to all time high. I think it's platinum.
Platinum is hitting is going parabolic right now.
So a lot of these like hard assets are, are trading very
well. And these assets which don't
really move like that, like they, they traditionally are
quite quiet. So it's just interesting to see
this is probably not a bullish sign, but it's a, it's a sign
that people are are kind of wanting to move away from bonds
and stocks and into stuff that they perceive to be a bit more
of like a hedge against, against that sort of stuff.
This week we still have CPI and PPI.
CPI actually come out. It's tomorrow, it's tomorrow,
sorry. So it's tomorrow.
And I think that'll be the main, the main thing that that will
move the market. Normally what happens is PPI
comes out, CPI comes out, market moves and then market kind of
reverses what it was doing. When PPI comes out, I think
we'll probably come in slightly below expectations again, as we
have seen. But I don't think these CPI are
that important because the Fed has already said that we don't
really care. We think there's going to be
some short term impact of tariffs.
And so, like, if it comes above, people will just say, oh, don't
worry about it, which I think is kind of an interesting position
to be in. Yeah, I think there's more
upside than downside risk to your point, like if it's, if
it's a little high to go, we knew about this, it's tariffs.
But I, I think the, the Milk Rd. crew has been tracking the
trueflation to CPI data and it looks like it's been reporting
on some kind of like a 45 day lag CPI compared to trueflation.
So the true inflation index is going up since May, but it was
very, very low in April and May. So if we get the May CPI data
and if it, if it's tracking into this range, like it could be a
very low number. And if it comes in low, I wonder
if folks will, will run with that temporarily, rightfully or
wrongfully. I was looking at the rate cut
odds. So I, I think there's starting
to be I'm seeing this narrative, I heard it on the, the nifty
show this morning that folks think there there won't be any
rate cuts this year. Like that's, that's still that
would be very there's low chances of no cuts, 7%.
So we're looking at 30% odds of 1 cut on the CME futures, 40%
chance of 220% for three. So we'll see if this changes
coming out of the, the CPI. But I'm, how much does this even
matter right now? Like we, we were talking about
some of the catalysts, right? Yesterday I said on the show, I
think it was after you left Mando and then you, you
responded to me on, on X that crypto kind of broadly feels
like a, a powder keg. And there's a handful of
announcements that could really light the match.
And I was pointing to like the potentially the no capital gains
if the US is finding a way to acquire.
And if they make any announcements, there's to like
blockbuster ones. Certainly there are others.
I think the resolution to the the US China trade deal would be
1, perhaps on a smaller scale, but at least for a near term
boost. The sticky ETFs are a very
interesting one. Yeah, I think, I think the fact
that BlackRock have been pushing for it, I mean, you've seen a
lot about this. So the reason why this has
happened is on the 31st, it was basically said that if you
stake, it's not considered to be a security and that's quite a
big thing. And then yesterday similarly the
SEC chair came out and said basically like staking's fine.
So you've seen this like very quick movement towards this and
there's a, a number of BTS coming up, which would apply for
that sort of staking. So it now seems highly likely
that we're going to see something around that relatively
soon. And I think if that comes out,
this whole narrative of like all this, either state supply shop,
all that sort of stuff, alongside what we saw with
Pectra and kind of be can kind of be the new narrative.
I'm just, I'm just looking ahead.
I I don't even fully believe this star.
Is it like I'm I'm actually of the belief that Solana looks
really undervalued, but I don't think it's going to be the thing
that outperforms it. I think.
I think Heath is just got. It got itself in a really nice
spot. I'm with you.
I, I feel like it's one of those things that will have been
obvious in hindsight. And there's some folks like
Pintoshi's been kind of pounding the table on the stick and ETFs
are around the corner for what feels like three to six months
now. So he's been he's been at it for
a while, but like this candle from 1800 to 2500 and three days
in early May, a move like that feels like it's in the realm of
of possible scenarios. It's it's probably the top 10%
bullish outcome coming out of the back of us taking ETF.
But if Ethereb from 2700 to 3300 I don't I wouldn't be that
surprised it it would still be negative on the year.
Yeah, I think, I think it's that's what I think it's like
it's it's still not liked enough like as just or I think the
other issue is that everyone bought the beaters, right.
No one wants no one, which is like the other bit of the trade
here. We're like the beaters are not
trading apart from Ave. like the beaters.
My my ETH bag that I bought has done way better than the bag I
bought Mog or Pepe. They've kind of gone sideways
over this period. Rect has done really well
obviously, but I think Rect is like people consider rect on ETH
beta I think is like maybe looking at it wrong.
It's got it's own like. Ice, it's like.
Capital markets thing, but I think the ones that you would
traditionally think of ETH beta SPXI guess is 1, but I feel like
that was kind of under earned. Do you know what I mean?
Like it was, it is like when people say what do you want to
own for ETH beta, then you probably say Pepe and Pepe's
done OK, but ET just only ETH itself has actually beaten Pepe.
Interesting, I hadn't really looked at them both side by
side. It really reminds me of when we
all thought Solana was about to go to 200 or like 250 and
everyone bought all the beaters. And then you end up just like
fighting it out on these beaters because there's not enough new
people coming in to buy those. Whereas ETH is the institutional
1. You know, like this is a bad,
maybe a bad analogy, but it's like it's sometimes it's like
owning runes because you think Bitcoin is, is the trade, you
know, like sometimes just own a bit of Bitcoin.
You know, we're so obsessed with getting the 10X that we might
just miss the 2X and much bigger size that you can probably put
on. And that's kind of my thought a
little bit here. It makes sense.
I feel like one difference between like the Solana run up
last year. I think people held Seoul and
certainly people went out the reserve and traded soul memes
and got sold beta. But I'd say a lot of my friends
in in my train circles were holding Solana bags.
I don't I don't have those friends holding ETH bags right
now other than you. You've been kind of pounding the
table on here for a little while, but not many others.
Maybe stats. I think stats has been holding
his ETH for for for quite some. The difference is think is is
your buddy holding ETH and and others.
That's the difference here. I'm not even that, but I don't,
I don't really use ETH like as a thing, right?
I much prefer using Solana and part of that is to stay a, a
phantom thing, right? But it's I'll just prefer it as
a chain whenever I'm doing any payments or like just everything
about it, I prefer. But I do think ETH has just got
the narrative right now. And if you're going to talk, if
you think about what everyone's bullish on right now, it's
institutions, institutions coming in.
ETH feels very like it's built for these sort of like
institutions. You're going to come in and put
on like 500 million of treasuries or like they're going
to. It just feels like it's built
for that. Well, there's two factors.
One, there's the yield component, which is just an
obvious, the other is the Joe Lubin, we're building the world
computer, the alternative to traditional finance.
And that narrative was what that was loud in 2021, like when I
was kind of really first entering the space and, and
learning about these majors and what the difference.
And it was like digital oil and none of us really understood
what digital oil meant. But I think the setup and the
price action starts going back positive.
The narrative for the world computer becomes stronger as
well. That coupled with the foundation
starting to to pivot a bit their focus as well.
Logan, I think you're you're not in your head for your thoughts
on all this. Yeah, I think it's difficult, at
least from my perspective and I'm not like actively acquiring
or trading ETH at this point in time.
But from the just my objective observations of headlines and
such from the last few weeks, it's difficult not to have some
level of optimism around ETH at present time.
You mentioned the Joe Lubin interview alone.
I got to write an article about that and listen into your
interview in depth. That's that's a tough one to
walk away and not feel super bullish on.
You know, and, and no one or very few people right would have
better insight into the future of Ethereum both near term and
long term than Lubin would of course, right.
Couple that with as you've noted here Mando, the institutional
interest, you know, analysts from Bernstein and etcetera are
you know are talking about that as well as just pointing to the
fact that some of the some of that interest is people looking
to actual activity on these networks and seeing their
underlying token. When we talk about playing betas
versus not playing betas, seeing the underlying token as things
that are perhaps undervalued. That was something that was
highlighted in the Bernstein note from you know, mid-May or
something like that. That just kind of stuck with me.
You know, stablecoin interest, defy interest, whatever the case
may be. Etherium has the rails and is,
you know, world computer electricity, Lubin said like 3
or 4 different things, right? Like it, it's kind of like all
of those things, or at least has the opportunity to be all those
things. And if you want just an easy way
to gain access to it, you buy ETH, right?
You buy Ether, the token versus all those different betas.
And so, yeah, I mean, I said, I think I'm kicking myself a
little bit in the last few weeks by not even just starting a
small DCA into it. It still feels kind of like
that, not to be super cliche, but that like beach ball
underwater thing. I think everybody else got their
time to shine, right. Solana had its, Bitcoin has had
its, but like Ethereum still feels like it's, it's probably
due a not financial advice, but it's it's probably due like a
little bit of a, you know, time in the spotlight.
I don't think it's really gotten that just yet.
It's hard to believe in some capacity that December 8th, 8th
was 4000. I don't remember what that what.
That Yeah. Crazy, right?
And would it be crazy? You can.
Run a long way and and and not be overbought, you know?
Yeah. Like it wouldn't, yeah, if, if
we're doing the show in two months and it's the 4K, like it
wouldn't, it wouldn't shock me, right, If you told me that's a
scenario that's on the table here.
Yeah, but that still feels, I mean, it feels a little silly
that like only four K, you know what I mean?
Like that's what the way that I'm internalizing that when you
say ETH is 4K just because it's it's been there, done that
before, you know what I mean? But we're still like 4800, the
all time high. Some of the analysts are
projecting, you know, anywhere between 4:00 to 5K here.
Arthur Hayes has something similar as well, 4 to 5K by the
end of the year. Like it's not shocking, but at
the same time it's not even it doesn't even give you that like
the the shine just because it's it's already happened.
It's kind of boring for it to be a 4K, even if that is like, you
know, a huge move from here. It's like a 50% move up.
It's a 50% move up. That's a really good way to put
it. I think like Bitcoin moving 50%
right now takes it to 100 and or 100 and 60 KA 150.
Yeah, like that's, that feels more more difficult to me than
it's going to 4K, right? When's Bitcoin going to 165 K?
This year. If it does, I think it could go
a lot higher like I think it could go to to 4K in the next in
by the end of this this summer. Basically it could, it could do
it by yeah, I think over the next couple of months basically
I've. Been thinking about that a lot
is if if Bitcoin does do the run to 150 a 160 where does ETH go?
I mean 4000 feels like the the base or maybe even the bear case
there I I don't know. That would be bearish for ETH.
It doesn't get hit 4K at that level right?
Particularly now that it has narrative.
Well, it would be bearish, but it would be basically holding
the current ETH Bitcoin ratio, right?
Yeah, 4 to the one. So you you would need that would
be a them tracking in line just quickly.
I want to go deeper down and we have CPI tomorrow.
I think Wiz Wizzo Soho, one of the the louder bears on on the
time. He's telling everyone to de risk
in the CPI. You think we'll see wider DE
risking? Can Wiz de risking more or can
he? Do you want to have any risk or?
I don't think you should be with the right points.
I don't think you should be different in CPI.
If you've been buying things, waiting for an old coin season,
I think you have to really evaluate what you earn.
I think runners will run. I don't think this is going to
be the chance for you to get out or, or like there has to be a
good narrative here for it to continue.
I don't think it's going to be like it was in December or or
November. I really don't this time.
I think it's going to be bit more of a selective rally if, if
this market felt like thousands of people coming in and asking
me like, which coin should we owe like hitting the news, but
it doesn't, it feels like we're hitting all time highs because
of institutional adoption of Bitcoin and and potentially
that's shifting a little bit more towards ETA as well.
That's not a world where like your friends are asking you
which altcoin is going to 10X and you've got to play that,
that hand. You know, remember when when
Bitcoin rallied because of all the ECF flows and we were like,
what the Hell's happening to our altcoins?
It's because there's no buyers of those and we were all sitting
here waiting for altcoins season as Bitcoin rose and actually
there's just no one coming in to buy them.
We just put PvP ING it between ourselves and others went down
during that period, continued to go down.
I feel like it's a very similar sort of period here where, you
know, I can see it for a man in minutes, like there's not
hundreds of new subscribers coming in each day and wanting
to read the news better, right? It's it's pretty flat lined for
the for the last couple of months.
And that that tells me that that this isn't a rally to like, go
all in on some altcoin hype. Yeah, I think that's the right
read. Well, before we leave this topic
entirely, Logan Curse, did you have a chance to dig into Paul
Hackman's comments yesterday and kind of why everyone's going to
get up above that? The quick TLDR on this.
Yeah, so I read the the remarks from Paul and there were some
others from Commissioner Crenshaw as well that I think
you can read through on sec.gov if if you're looking to see the
full remarks. You know, to be quite honest, I
didn't think anything that he said was super, you know,
enlightening He. But as Mando noted before, he
kind of gives you just the sense that like the previous regime
was very hands on here and we're going to sort of let, you know,
just let it be, you know, not, not in those words, of course,
but it just, it makes it feel like the, you know, the
regulatory stuff that previously hindered innovation, that
previously scared people from trying new things or from
whatever the case may be. Like those, those shackles are
kind of off. I, I think at the very end, one
of the things that stuck out to me is that there there's mention
of like an innovation exemption and things like that.
That's just, that's exciting to me because you, you feel like
these opportunities, particularly in the United
States for a really long time have just been like, you know
what? We can't really push the
envelope too much because we don't want to bring on any
scrutiny from anyone else. And with this administration and
the, you know, the crypto task force and all, you know, Gensler
being gone, it's just been like, hey, go out and see what happens
and we'll evaluate when it happens, you know what I mean?
And that that's sort of what I got from it.
I know that of that innovation exemption right there at the
top. I don't know what else to say.
I encourage people to read it for themselves if they want to
pull out specifics. To me, it just felt more of like
kind of like a reassurance that like, you know, we are going to
stay true to this path that's been we've been going down for
the last few months, which is that, you know, you are OK to
innovate, you are OK to try things, you are OK whatever, you
know, doesn't mean crime season or anything like that hopefully.
But it, you know, just means like people that want to
actually build and create in this new financial ecosystem can
do so without fear. Yeah.
Tyler, can I ask you this because maybe I know what, what
do you think happens next administration?
Let's say the Democrats won. Let's say we get AOC coming in.
President AOC, do you think all of this gets brought back?
That's what kind of slightly worries me about this.
Is it like I'm just although I'm super bullish about this whole
Trump like that, that, you know, we're getting a lot going and go
quite far. Do you think that like this
could all backfire when it comes to like the next presidency that
like they actually come down very heavy-handed because of
like maybe some of the perceived grifting that's gone on and I'm
this whole like reassuring of crypto in the US.
Is it just, is this just going to change in 2020, whatever it
is, 20/20/29? Is it next election or next
president? I'd say it's been one of my
bigger concerns, especially with the the Trump family going
deeper and deeper. But what I will say is that if I
had to put odds on, I'd put Democrat chances below 30%.
Wow. OK, maybe.
Maybe low below 25% so I I'm less concerned about it right
now just because I don't see their path to victory.
Yeah. There's a couple wild cards with
if Elon spins up his own party, is that going to split the
Republican base? Like, yeah, it's like that's
something. But Democratic leaders pretty
terrible right now. They they haven't really, they
don't have much of A platform. You know, what they're doing
with with the the migrant riots, I think is, is not even being
very well received. I'm not concerned about.
But in this scenario where they do win, I think it's a very real
risk. Always supposed than you think
these elections right so. Yeah, One thing I like to think
about, Tyler, not to cut you off if you're forming a thought,
there is like how much money was spent by, you know, Coinbase and
others right in lobbying. And that was across political
lines, you know, not just not just red, but blue as well.
So, you know, hopefully four years, the Trump stuff is the
scariest part of the Trump personal enrichment is the
scariest part for me. But perhaps in four years with
like actual regulatory frameworks that seem fair and
reasonable and maybe not so much additional grifting if we can do
that, because it's only been, it hasn't even been a year.
It's been a lot, you know, my hope is that perhaps both
parties are a little more, you know, level headed about crypto
and it's just, yeah, it's better adopted and I don't know.
And then it becomes harder and less, I don't know, less desired
to to get rid of. That's my hope.
That's some hopeium. Another aspect is it, it feels
like maybe up until 24, going after the crypto folks felt like
a niche, like OK, we're going to be hard line stance against
crypto still goes much more mainstream in the next 4 years.
Now, if you're walking back the regulation, if you're going on
attack, you're attacking a much wider group of people in the US
and maybe that's much less appetizing.
So I think it's a real risk. I think it's something that if
we make big progress in the next 4 years, perhaps it we can take
some of the risk off the table so.
So you're just going to have to get so far in the next 4 years
that it just doesn't reverse. Yeah, I just think that maybe
even even in crypto, we should be kind of aware of this.
Like the point I make is really just that we're sowing the seeds
of the next bear market ahead of the election.
If it's like, oh crap, we're going to get something like, I
don't know if it's crime season and we get tokenization, which
is, which is really just like securities and all this sort of
stuff. Like, do you think it's going to
in some ways it can really turn? Yeah, political shift and then
all the corporate treasuries become.
At the same time. Right, if that's the obvious
their market pullback scenario that positions itself right now
next to like the quantum computing FUD or concerns there.
So very valid, definitely worth keeping in mind.
I, I want to go now down the risk curve a little bit.
Shouldn't won't be a huge surprise to, to a lot of our,
our listeners there. So we've been talking about the
bull case for ETH. If like what else is performing?
I think Mando mentioned this unit swap up 25% huge move.
Are they at 19%? So those are two leading movers
in D5. We got to talk about SBX for a
bit. I think it's become, I mean,
Pepe is the number one meme on ETH.
It's at what 5 1/2 billion? But SPX is, I mean, it's all
time high waiting room is open and electric right now.
It it's less than 10% off all time highs.
I believe we're right in that range.
And I mean, it's it's going parabolic.
It doesn't look like it's going to slow down.
It's got half the holders of fartcoin.
Well, actually I take that back holder scan has it that 78,000,
but I didn't that actually might be I'm not sure if that's across
chains, so I'll have to to look into that.
But I guess where I was going is it doesn't feel like nearly as
crowded of a trade or as public of a trade as far coin does
right now. I agree this is a pain trade.
I actually genuinely believe that like this going higher,
people will be like crap, like I bought the wrong one.
Like no one's no one really. Like it's a it's very much still
a clique FBX, right? It's not like, Oh, we all love
this is the funnest thing ever. Like it's just Murad and then
some counts where I just kind of like who are literally insane
about it. Like they will talk bull post
everything, but they're not like mainstream accounts.
It's very much like just a community that loves SBX.
This is a prime like that was a good trait like this going high
is a pain trade. And the same way that ETH going
high is a pain trade versus Saul, I think this is a pain
trade versus Morgan Pepe. Right, I like these coins.
I don't own any, but I, I, I really do like the sort of like
the movement coins, the sort of get behind the house coin,
flipping the housing market and stuff.
I mean, it's just really difficult to create the like the
type of community that's lasting enough to get behind the thing,
you know, for more than like a week or two, right?
Just cause the metas are so fast, like flipping the housing
market. That's fun, but like you can't
just keep that up. They've kept it up, even if it
is just Maraud and like two other people or whatever, like
they they've certainly kept up this, hey, we're going to flip
the stock market thing and I think people can get behind
that. And this is, you know, the price
movement here recently is definitely evidence of that in
some way or another. So I'm I'm rooting for it.
I don't own any. I sort of like the Maraud is
right stuff that's, you know, percolating on my feet a little
bit. There's now a Maraud.
You know you were building out your list by hand, Tyler before
on Deck Screener. There's now a Marauds Picks
category on Coin Gecko. Oh yeah.
Yeah, you can see them all in one spot on Coin Gecko.
So good for good for holders. It's still something that's kind
of like I'm interested in potentially owning it.
I don't know anything at this point in time, but I can totally
get behind the coins that sort of feel like they have some
level of purpose. I think that might be easier to
drag new people in than just pure meme the the purpose coins
if you want to call them that. Yeah, I think that makes some
sense. There is now a pretty wide gap
between SPX and the other movers on that Maraud list.
I think the last time when SPX was at all time high previously
MOG was also over a billion. So Mog's hanging out in 2nd at
4:30, pop Cats at 380, Gigas at 2:40, and the rest of the list
has been pretty underperforming. Has he abandoned these other
ones? I don't see many of his tweets,
but the ones I do see are only about SPX.
That's a good question. I see much less chatter about
the overall Mirage list than just SPX.
So it does feel like perhaps he's a little bit less on those
and it feels like some of these other ones.
I don't really see the Retardio buzzword was everywhere last
year, right? Like I feel like I don't see it
lock in. It's kind of not not really said
nearly as much as it was. I still feel like giga is a
strong one on this list, but these middle range ones like
ticker Bitcoin, it's hard to get behind like a 3X on that a poo.
So the the rest of this list feeling a little bit weaker.
I think mog is still going to be mog still got K money behind it.
If it starts to move, everyone's going to start to rally behind
that definitely, but I I don't know if it's going to be the
whole Murad list moving this time around like it it was a
lot. I mean we're already seeing that
with SBX basically at all time highs.
Some of the other movers. We talked about this a little
bit at the open, but man, hype has been incredibly strong.
There was a pretty large cell wall at 40 and it smashed right
through it. It was at 4150 earlier today.
It's pulling back a bit now and I'm seeing louder and louder
cries for like the move to 100 or the move to 400 which would
put this thing at like Ethereum market cap if if the.
Move to 400. Did you say the move to 400?
Yeah, 4/4 to 40 was the IT was the early move. 40 to 400 is the
next move. So that would put it at a $400
billion FTV, which is bigger than Ethereum right now.
Logan, have you been falling the hype trade?
Did you play in this much? Yeah, I mean, I'm still holding
not the entire bag. I offloaded a little bit, some
for tax loss harvesting or whatever.
I don't even remember not holding as much as I wish I
would. I'm not like playing around in
hyper EDM or stuff. I feel like that's something
that maybe I'll kick myself. It's just difficult with like
summer being around and other things going on to dedicate
myself. Otherwise, I'm just kind of
enjoying price go up alongside others.
It does feel, Mendo said it earlier.
I mean it like it felt like this was one of those coins.
If things are going to go up, this kind of felt like one of
them. Same thing with Far Coin.
And there's a handful of others that you can sort of, I don't
know, just feels like there's some level of safety here built
in. So yeah, I don't have too much
to say other than I mean, it just feels, it feels like a
winner. Often times previous versions of
myself would just kind of like, you know, either I missed it or
whatever. Like not pay too close
attention. I'm trying to be better about
letting winners win, you know, and the same thing goes for like
the Defy coins or anything like that.
I think you just, you know, you just kind of focus on on the
winners that have established themselves thus far.
And you don't need to. You don't need to get too cute.
It's definitely a FOMO. I think Max paying higher trade
a bit as well, at least for me, just because you see so many
folks talking about. So every time it it pumps 5
percent 10% you've got the whole timeline celebrating the new
hype all time high. It feels somewhat safish, or at
least it has. I mean, even these last two
dips, right they're. More crowded.
That's the one right about it. It's it's definitely more
crowded at this stage. But I do think that the buybacks
are good versus the current market cap.
Yeah, they're good. I wanted to share the tweet that
I did earlier because I I actually put that before we went
live. I shared my screen.
I see can we do that? There we go.
So I just put how about etherizing isn't all concerned.
We have don't say that again. It ain't a parasite salon If he
runs all like everyone just hates this.
Isn't that just hilarious? Yeah, for what it's worth that
again, think what you will of Arthur Hayes, but that is
basically that was sort of his rationale.
He spoke to one of the members of our team at the crypt at
Bitcoin Las Vegas or whatever and said that it's the most
hated L1. And when you know, you see a a
cycle turn a little, you want to be in the most hated asset.
That would be ether. I I, I tend to agree.
I mean, it is. I can't think of anything else
people hate more at this point in time than ETH.
But those replies are hilarious to me like that.
That tells you that there can be a lot of pain here.
I agree. I also just think like every
like people are like misinterpreting all season a
bit. Like I don't think there's a
world where just ETH runs and like literally nothing else
runs, right? I think kind of like what you've
been pointing out is that there will be pockets about
performance, but don't expect like all the L ones to go up
just because I still think that there's going to be like right
1010 big movers on the board in that scenario.
I don't know, maybe maybe that's my hoping I'm showing through.
It's hard for me to see just like a pure ether rally where
where nothing else does, but we'll see maybe I'll I'll throw
my comments in there and add to the to to all the responses on
this. It's.
Funny, me and Obie have been going like a little bit, not
back and forth, but like we've been debating this a lot in the
in the in the back. And then I realized that 3030
minutes before he'd put out a tweet being like, I believe in
all point season. So it looks like he just called
him out on the timeline, which is pretty funny.
That's perfect. Well, a quick shout out to to
Obie and the the wrecked crew got to touch on this at least
briefly today. How about that?
Rather, there's no top. There is no top this week.
Discovery. This week there's always stuff
for these guys. They've crushing it.
I'm going to kind of group chat with tabs and no SF.
And each week that is like, Oh my God, we got this.
We got this. Definitely.
Definitely a good time to be a rectal though.
Tyler, have you had the blue one too?
Shipwrecked. And my my case is on the way.
I just got the. E-mail lucky, I know.
Hopefully today or tomorrow. Cool.
I'm excited to try that one, I've heard it's the best.
I know I missed the IT sold out. I don't know what was happening
but I both I just like somehow missed the the apple in this
last one work. Dumb.
I'm I'm going to call you out on that briefly because I was
hosting a show when that the shipwreck launch went live and I
still was able to move. Where was I?
I I must have been doing something.
I don't know. Yeah.
It's not an excuse. Not a good excuse.
Quickly I think it sold out in like, I don't know if man knows
the exacts but yeah. It was 17 minutes.
You had to know it was happening.
Yeah, not, not a not a good excuse from my end, but I'm
eager to try the other flavors because I enjoyed the liquidated
lime and I've been reckless for a while now, so.
Well, I'll, I'll save you some for your Chicagoland trip.
Yeah. And hopefully in about a month
I'll be out there, yeah. You're going to Chicago.
Yeah, it's been a while since I've been I, I, I like a good
Chicago summer day, so. Nice.
So you're doing a Are you going to meet Tyler?
Are you going out for drinks? Hopefully, hopefully he can
spare some time away from the charts for me.
We'll see what's happening at that point.
No one. No one works harder than Tyler.
No one. We'll, we'll see how busy alt
season. If Mano's right and it's just
eats pumping, I'm just going to be I'll have a lot of free time
on my hands. I don't think it's just eats to
be clear, but I just think they don't think it's going to be a
broad based all coin season. I just think Bitcoin dominance
can come down and the big winner is like eats plus high plus
maybe. Are they a couple of others?
But like, I don't think this is Axrp Sui soul.
Everything just fucking goes. I don't think it's like that
this time. I really don't.
Yeah, And I, for the record, I do agree with you there.
I think there's going to be another likely winner this
summer. And that is our our beloved fart
coin, which I woke up and it was over $1.30 this morning, which
was quite lovely to see. It was a pretty, I mean in
hindsight this was a big pullback.
I get like $1.60 dollar 65 went all the way down to like the end
of the 80s. So basically a full 50% after
just a a massive run shook out a lot of folks.
Now back to $1.25 chart looks great again.
We got Coinbase perps coming Thursday.
We think spot probably coming along with that, but we don't
know and still Robin Hood and Finance spot listings on the
table. So it's a nice set up.
I think this one is going to continue to be a a strong horse
this summer, especially if a Bitcoin follows that beloved M2
chart. Another interesting token to to
watch this summer launch coin. I think we we got to talk about
this a little bit talked about it yesterday.
It's it's back to 200 million. The ecosystem has cooled off a
bit. The ecosystem was incredibly hot
over the weekend. I think most of the ecosystem
tokens are read about down 10 to 30% on the day.
So certainly a pullback across the board except for launch.
But what was interesting the most to me on this one are
saying the folks starting to extrapolate the revenue numbers
again. And I think this is always one
of those things that's like tongue in cheek and and you
can't get too excited about a handful of weeks of revenue.
But the reason I bring this up is so lost coin has a fast
start, crazy revenue numbers. It was a bubble, OK, you, you
can't extrapolate out a week of revenue numbers.
But now we're like a three to four weeks in.
And the reality is more products, more tokens are
continuing to launch ongoing in this ecosystem and folks are
trading them. And the new meme sector on
Solana is, is pretty dead like the, the appetite for new meme
trading talked about it yesterday.
It's all PvP, There's really no appetite for it.
And but folks still want to trade.
And I think it it is to the benefit of this launch coin
ecosystem. And I guess the point is, even
if you don't believe in it, even if you think ICM is all just a
total vaporware, if, if there's trading action continued for
another weeks and months, like the, the revenue extrapolation
becomes a much stronger pitch. And we've got the arena, the
star Arena protocol turning at 250 million FTV yesterday.
And launch coin is certainly seeing a lot more action and
tension than that. So it was an interesting one to
me. And I think it's one that can't
be written off just yet. I think that's my that's my take
away. I think it's really important
that the not to knock any products or founders or
protocols launching, but it's really important that not
everyone goes straight up immediately.
In my opinion. I like it just it, it was
obnoxious to start, right? It was just like all the manias
and frenzies that transpire here whenever there's a new meta.
It just, it does feel like, at least from my perspective, and
I'm not actively really participating here, but it does
feel, I don't know, more stable, more real, like more authentic
than it did before. That's not to suggest the
products or protocols launching are legit or not at this point
in time. But at at least, you know,
perhaps a bit more due diligence being given to, you know, not
just throwing shit at every single thing that launches you.
You need that, you know, you need some losers, unfortunately,
for for this ecosystem to be like a real ecosystem.
So yeah, I think, I think it's good.
I think it's good. It's healthy.
You know, maybe that's the best way to characterize it,
healthier than it was before. The bubble blew up incredibly
fast and it basically burst. But and now that they're
starting to to rebuild, I mean, look at this like this price
action like this was untradable. Like this three day stretch
launch coin went from 10 million to 350 million.
It's like that's just a FOMO trade.
You're just buying in just to catch the price action.
And then over the next two weeks it, it went down 60%, but but
now it's going up a little bit more slowly at a more reasonable
pace. And now it it's giving like an
entry where if you want to build a position, you can actually do
it and you can actually VCA in and, and buy dips and whatnot.
So I'm curious how this will continue to trend, but I think
it is the lost coin ecosystem is much to the benefit of this meme
meta slowing down the the new meme meta, so to speak.
But of course, the caveat maybe the exception that proves the
rule verse coin it it's off my it's off my window here.
So this token launched on pump fun yesterday verse world.
It went to 1.1 billion in two hours.
What is it? It's like a metaverse game.
And metaverse, it is a a metaverse play open to the
father. What is it?
How do they describe it themselves?
Consumer celebrities are seeking new and innovative ways,
innovative ways to engage with each other.
First of us kind of offer multiple real world use cases
and cover the full metaverse spectrum.
So they're they're pointing to their tech most performant 3D
scanning studio, fastest growing metaverse company in the Middle
East expertise and clients. That's the pitch.
I just I I'm not owe any of this as I was once again instead of
tweeting about. Fastest growing metaverse
company in the Middle East? I think, I think we, I think we
found the reason. I I wrote about this at 700
million and then 15 minutes later than a million.
Of course it's lower. Now what's interesting, So one
like the reason this happened, this is massively bundled.
So if you look at I was looking at this yesterday, basically
it's like 9595% supply control 95 to 96%.
So the market cap is more Oh yeah.
So I guess the market they're they're saying the market cap
here is 50 million. So it would have been 100
million at peak. I think that's even a little
high for, for for some of the, the way I see this horror
distribution. So that's what is, that's what
enabled it to go like this high because I mean, we haven't seen
tokens run the 30 million in a day lately, let alone a.
Billion, have you seen this other coin, this coin that Oh my
God, I've been following it a little bit.
I forget the name of it, but like B check got me on it about
this coin that just keeps on rallying and like no, and was
like this is. Kita KTI.
Yeah, this this thing which is like 100% feels like a scam.
It's like 1.7 billion and like no one really knows what it
does. Apparently main net is coming
and like apparently the test net came out the other day and
everyone was like this is just a scam.
Yeah, it had this long consolidation period when it was
in stealth mode and then it came out of stealth mode, went from
100 million to 800 million in 10 days, chopped today.
What is this thing? Can we ever look?
I'm, I'm not familiar with what
this I, I, so I've been following this.
It's been on my radar, most scalable blockchain in the
world. So it's going to be a fast. 10
million TTS. Built in, there's a lot of duty
on chain FX. Flexible rules engine first
blockchain truly capable of supporting regulated.
Don't go on to their Facebook. Don't go on to their Facebook.
Let's type in Keita. Let's see what people have been
saying. Money Lord, he's tweeting about
it. A lot of talk about price
action. MRGMRG I'm likely the first
person ever to go on Keith to test net.
TLDR is completely fake. The explorer is the versatile
vibe coded page for some posting fake trending transaction data.
Let me just put it so you can find it.
Yeah, I saw that one. This is always interesting to
look at the ticker chats on on Twitter.
Like how many people are actually talking about these
random ass tokens. It's it's pretty wild.
Rather, I, I, I kind of have this as a barbell strategy where
I like, I like to, to to short trash this one at the same time
is like is dangerous. You can feel this one.
Something's going on here. Yeah, I'm with you.
These are the tricky ones to to know how to short.
So Mixie was similar, right. So Mixie was the one that ran
super high. It was just grinding up every
day and like the founder, like it previously had multiple 9
figure companies. So like some of the like Lexapro
got behind it. It ran all the way to 100
million basically up only. And then they they had this
announcement yesterday that some publicly traded company had been
buying it. And like that was the
announcement it sold off 50%. And I think that was like a very
sell the news of that. I think a lot of these tokens
have that kind of a play back on like part of the Tibber.
OK, since it's it's it feels like it's some of the same
players of that key to trade. Tibber is another one where
folks, it's a lot of speculation what this actually is.
No one really knows what it actually is.
There's a lot of curious just. Just pass them.
Yeah, just don't ask questions. All right?
This is this is the fastest growing blockchain in the Middle
East. Don't ask questions.
So this thing is since April 7th, it's gone from one and a
half million to 100 million basically in a straight line up
and it's still in stealth mode. So we'll see what happens when
it exits stealth mode run out of time.
I'll quickly go around the horn on see.
Was there anything else we wanted to hit?
And those are the big ones. We had O Cap games, they
announced their three and a half million dollar raise from 11 KX
and then Yuga Labs. That was an interesting twist.
So Spencer requires Moonbirds from Yuga.
Yuga invests in O Cap games, but I think that was an exciting one
that didn't he man. Tyler rushed.
Sorry. I'm sorry if you already spoke
about this because the news of the IP sale was last week, I
believe. Are you interested in a moon
bird at all? It's sort of got the, the pudgy
arc here in play, sort of, you know, disdain for the founding
team taken over by somebody who's, you know, beloved by the
community. I don't know.
I think that that they will be a good longer term hold.
They're 0.76 right now. I I think some of the reasons.
0.76. Yeah, I mean, some of the
reasons. Wow, I think they got a little
over. What he's doing right and he has
a business. Sorry you got Tom.
No. No, I, I, I totally agree.
Like he's a competent founder. He, he knows the space well.
I liked his message when we talked to him on last week's
show. But but also what I heard
between the Lions was don't rush in, don't FOMO by this like
we're in for the long haul. We're going to spend time
building this out. So I didn't leave that interview
saying I need to buy a Moonbird today, but I need to have them
on my shopping list. Yeah, yeah, it's interesting,
you know, I haven't dug too deep and I'm actually, you know,
hoping to be able to reach out and and chat a little more with
Tim or the team about what what are the plans?
I have to listen to your you chat with him as well.
But as I was thinking about it yesterday when I saw that news,
you know, and you guys willingness to participate
alongside as well just gave me it gave me pudgy vibes.
You know, not not just because of the connection, right,
because obviously there's a connection between Spencer and
and the pudgy Penguins ecosystem, but just the the arc
of of of playing out. You know, the community really,
really has that, you know, deep. I don't want to use the word
hatred, but you know, it almost gets there for for moon birds
and proof. And now you narratively flip
that on its head in terms of sentiment, in my opinion, you
know, you you've put it in the hands of somebody who is revered
and, you know, well respected. You know, I didn't I didn't know
much about Luca when he took over pudgies.
But like, you know, Spencer, I think community sentiment around
somebody that would be even bigger than like Luca taking
over, right? You know what I mean?
Maybe not, but that's just the way that I'm thinking of it.
Perhaps just because I know others can, could comment if
they were more, you know, aware of Luca when he took over but.
Yeah, I think perhaps more well known, more more well liked,
perhaps just on the gun. Not saying that Luca wasn't
liked. I think he just perhaps was a
little bit more of an unknown. Yeah, that's yeah, that's what I
mean. I think Bull K Spencer knows
like these trading card games well, he's deep and managed
together. He's already had success with O
cap games. I think it's easy to project
he'll continue to have that success.
Remember told us if they held this long, I'm not selling now.
They they helped through all of that, but they held on a 90
percent, 99% drawdown. And now I got so I traded these.
It was the most fun trading weekend arguably of my life.
I took three hours out. It was my birthday that Saturday
these launched and I just traded them and I love these things.
And then they're a historic part of NFTS.
They they, they've got that, you know, built in lore as well.
So I think there's stuff to be excited about.
I just think it's a longer term play then like we need to go
sweep the floor today. So that's my read.
Other than that, I mean, Thruster announced their winding
down operations. I think we got glimpses of that
perhaps a week or two ago, but just kind of another sign of the
times for the blast ecosystem. They're the primary protocol on
blast. You don't think that like he's
kind of throwing the towel a little bit quickly here.
Like, do you not think like he's a smart dude?
Like he had, he had so many interesting things he could do.
I feel as though, yeah, the points maybe he's dead, but can
he not think of something else? Like get it going again?
I guess Blow kind of died at the same time, didn't it?
This was I've been, I'm like hesitant to like flood blast
just because I, I, I do have respect for Pac-Man.
I think he's a really smart guy. Right, me too.
But it's like what? Like what is going on?
Like they brought in Zen to be on that, like communication or
like leadership council. I think she's done with that.
So like, what was the point of that?
They're just hesitant focused on the mobile app, but like there's
nothing else to do in the ecosystem.
So like what what's the even Why do you need a mobile app?
I guess you can earn good yield on your blast stables.
Yeah, it's it's been a bit of this point, but it's some some
sort of blur. I mean blur had the lead like
blur was the the the NFT marketplace.
I was starting all my days looking at blur and now I'm back
to open C it's like. I think he's a smart guy.
It'd be shame if he didn't come back and think of people have a
flywheel and I think he can build 1.
Like he just sort of person that can build like a hyperlithic
investor, you know what I mean? Like he knows what he's doing.
Admittedly, I feel as though the L2 was probably a misstep
because he probably decided to do the L2 kind of at like just
beyond the peak of L2. Let's all live in L2.
And then it all kind of felt like that wasn't going to be the
trade anymore. The hyper liquid's come out and
been like a one at like they could have made blur the I guess
they can't really do it with blur right, because they have
the whole bridge. But you, you do think that
there's a lot of things you could do with an L2, like if he
made it a more centralized L2, same way that hyper liquid is
basically just a centralized L2 or L3 even, or is it L1 now?
I'm always kind of confused because you get there, but like
people get an L1 and then like can someone explain that to me?
Actually, like I'd love in the comments someone explains to me
what is going on with Hyper Liquid Liquid.
Whatever I look at it, I'm like, I guess I have to bridge the
arbitrary, which you put money on Hyper Liquid.
People think it's an L1 and yet people say it's also like an
arbitrary chain. It's like where?
Where are we on that? Anyone wanna know where we are
in that one? Yeah, I don't have the answer.
I'll be looking to the comments myself it.
Sounds way cooler if it's an L1 right?
But is it? From evaluation I think L1 is
stronger pitch than L3, but I agree with.
L. 3 rooting Pac-Man on it. I hope he figures something out.
I think he's a brilliant guy. This space be better with him.
Billy, maybe he's done with it and maybe being a crypto founder
isn't that fun. I can understand it's tough.
I can understand maybe there is not taken so well.
I'm actually surprised that like yeah, I just I just feel like he
could come back. I feel like he could have an
Andre Kanye, like researchers, you know, like, oh, he's back
and he's built this and. If if he did, I think people
would flock to him. Of course they would.
Yeah. Is he?
Like, they know he can build. They know he's a smart guy.
It's just like he he just made some missteps it seems.
Yeah, I think the the difficult part is he's got to like be able
to thread a needle now where he's not just creating like a
Ponzi thing, right? Because there's some, some
skepticism around the, the products now that he's built
thus far, not perhaps around him and his ability to build them,
but just some like, you know, at least from my perspective, like
there's a little bit of skepticism about what would
come. And, and I think you have to, to
keep that reputation high, you have to avoid like a super clear
Ponzi type thing, which of course the space lends itself
to. I agree, I agree, but I think
you you can create, you know the new word for for Ponzi, it's
flywheel Logan, if you have a nice.
Flywheel. OK, you should definitely
flywheel. Did you see those generated
girls talking about what should Passion Act do?
Probably some of my favorite video content.
Yeah. Of 2025 feels like I agree.
Move on from the from the from the Ponzi to the flywheel and
that's work out. You wanted what you want to do
here? Yeah, OK.
If you're listening flywheel. Flywheel.
Give us the flywheel. All right folks, that is a good
way to end today's show. We went about 10 minutes over,
but it was a fun conversation. Want to thank all of our
listeners for joining us. Want to thank our partners?
Want to thank my Co host. We'll be back tomorrow at 10:00
AM Eastern. I believe Stats the Man, the
Legend will be joining us for that show as well.
Until then, go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye.