Good morning. Good morning GMGM folks.
Welcome to another episode of Four More Hours, episode 196.
The Countdown 200 is on. Today is Monday, September 9
Point Point. It is a cooler Sunday morning
here in Chicago today, folks. The city is feeling great.
The Bears incredible comeback win yesterday Chicago was
electric. Those are the only bears that we
like on this show folks, we are feeling electric in the studio.
You know why for Rogue is back King frog back in the house he's
30 now happy birthday frog. How was your weekend and how
was? Yo-yo yo, we're so bad baby.
Oh my God I'm so hyped right now.
Last day in London, you know, just heard 30 years old on
Saturday. My knees are hurting.
My back's hurting already. I don't know if that's a feature
or a bug of, of entering yet another decade, but we're
vibing, dude. We are absolutely vibing.
Tyler, Thank you guys for for holding it down while I was
gone. But I can't wait to be home
tomorrow. And you know, it's going to be a
big week. It's going to be a big, big
week. It's already off to a great
start for those who have been tracking the board.
We'll get into it here in a bit. Meno likely joining us here in a
few minutes. We've got Logan on with us
coming off of a pretty solid U.S.
Open tournament. Logan, Jim, how you doing?
Hey, good morning Tyler. Doing really well.
Excellent tennis. Sad that it's over but still
plenty more of the season out there and lots more tennis fans
around the world. After the last couple weeks U.S.
Open broke all the records again for.
Oh wow. And Taylor Swift was there
yesterday. I saw that.
She wasn't watching football, she was watching tennis.
Was that was that part of their contract with Travis Kelce?
Yes, hopefully so I I'm down for more Taylor Swift appearances if
it means more people are watching tennis.
Love the things, Mckelsey I I've been, I've been wearing the 10
ball hat on the Kelsey Taylor Swift thing really since the
relationship started. I'm not buying that.
So like the contract kind of made sense to me.
But I think the problem is now that it's surfaced is they can't
in their relationship in line with the contractors because
it'll be too obvious. So now they're probably going to
have to extend things. So we'll see.
Kelsey, yeah, he he's enjoying his day off, flying to New York
for the US Open. I guess NFL players, they'd
probably get the the day off after the game.
Well, they, they played on Thursday, so they yeah, yeah,
Patrick Mahomes was there too. I mean, everybody, that's
everybody was, was watching tennis this weekend, not
football. Well, it was the first time we
had AUS player in the final, but he got smoked right?
Well, men's, yes, yeah. Men's, yes, Thank you for the
the clarification. Yeah, we really needed you to
clarify that. US women have been dominant, of
course, but it's been like 20 years since AUS man has won.
But we're gonna have to wait another year, folks.
We're talking about more than tennis on today's show.
What are we talking about? We'll do a quick market report.
We've got crypto stocks closing the worst week ever, but they're
back in the green this morning. Vanek shuttering its futures ETF
product a court. This is huge, folks.
Ruling against the CFTC in favor of US based election markets for
prediction markets. So that is huge.
We've got roaring Kitty back with his return to Twitter.
Market doesn't really seem to care all that much.
We'll see if he's washed. Zusu endorsing baseline markets
and Machi ahead of Machi's token today.
So that was an interesting one. Blast released their September
gold frintech seems to quit. Got some thoughts on that.
Punks have had a huge weekend. We'll catch Baroque on some of
these, catch him up on some of these big sales.
We had Doodles premiere and a big doodle sale on the back of
it and a whole lot more. We got a lot to come out today.
Also our Arbitrum update. Before we get into it, shout out
to our new partner Galaxis. Galaxis is a no code web 3
platform that empowers creators and communities to become
owners. Check out at Galaxis XYZ on X.
We are very excited to have them on board.
We are also very excited to have Manda Great Mando back in the
studio with this Mando GM, how you doing?
If you know, you know, you know what I mean.
Great, Mando. I'm doing great, man.
I'm doing great. I'm loving the the Wimbledon hat
I'm seeing. I love that load.
Yeah, good, good. I've been, you know, I've been
telling you what I've been doing this the same fucking Bitcoin
every single day. Disturbing size as it goes lower
and hoping that this is the bottom, but I've got another.
Got another 30 days of that to go.
So you're buying the dip, the deputy dip, and the deputy dip,
dip, dip. I'm just hoping that we don't
RIP too soon, basically. That's honestly what what I'm
worried about. And that might might be
ridiculous, but like, I do think this market just looks wrong to
me. Yeah.
We're excited to get more into that.
Well, Mandos, you're, you're here with us.
The shirt is on. I think let's get right into the
Mando market report. Who is the man Macro daddy of
the land? Can you dig it?
GMGMGM yeah. So a well, I would say we kind
of hit peak bear over the weekend, peak depression,
everyone getting super depressed.
Bitcoin was at like 52 Ki think on Friday.
Yeah, I think it went down that low.
Yeah, it it, it crashed pretty hard there Friday.
Absolutely. E nearly touched 2K.
Like you know, bit of a war zone about what we needed to do here.
It seemingly bounced a little bit.
I wouldn't say we're back yet. Bitcoins back above 55K we it
looks like stocks were having a very weak period on Friday just
because of some uncertainty about rate cuts.
But you know, that was after the jobs figure like slightly missed
and people worried about we could get a, a bit of a, a
weaker recession than expected. Most of the other figures aren't
pointing to A to a bad recession, although I would
agree it's, it's the chances of it are going up slightly.
But we have the Fed I think in a week or so.
So we'll be waiting to see what happens there.
But I think 50 bips is on the table.
I think 25 spips is most likely, but they will be dovish.
That's what I reckon. So I think we'll get effectively
him saying they'll probably do four rate cuts or three or four
so far this this year. That's what I think we'll see.
I think we're expecting to see some more wobbling.
Like we've already said here that macro people come back, a
lot of different markets start to start to move around this
sort of time. You get a lot of a lot of
toiletries around figures coming back. the Fed, you've also got
the election this year. So there's just a lot of things
that can cause a bit of a wobble in September.
It doesn't like Trump's odds are going up quite a lot with Nate
Silver, up to about 64% now, which is which is very high.
It isn't really being shown in the polymarket figures as
strong, which is kind of interesting because for a long
time polymarket was was much more aggressively pro Trump than
Nate Silva. And that's since flipped and
people felt like that was because, you know, Polymark, you
know, people, crypto people are probably a little bit more
Republican, it felt like, or at least that's what the data
shows. But yeah, seems as though they
haven't really caught up with Nate Silver.
We're only, we're only at 5246, which is quite a big gap there
at least a 10 bit or 10 point gap between the two of them.
And that's making me more bullish as well.
You know, like I continue to think that October we're going
to see a lot of headlines and I, it's difficult for me to paint
a, a bearish one for, for crypto here.
So that's, that's why I've been, we've been trying.
Well, me and Ovi have both been kind of dying it up over the
last, over the last few weeks, getting into different
positions. I personally have put a lot of
my, like I said, I'm banning on Bitcoin mainly here, but that's
not because it's the only horse that will do well.
It's just, I just feel it's the cleanest trade.
But I, I think you could head, head back to, you know, I think
Bernstein came out today and said that they think 9090K if
Trump gets elected, which is kind of where I'm at as well.
I think we could go to like 90 to 100K if, if Trump gets
elected. There was some light FUD over
the weekend about the fact that about the Bitcoin ETFs you had
Jim Bianco is a well known macro stretches come out and basically
say the Bitcoin ETFs have been slowly dying ETF's.
Obviously you had some and they have seen a decent amount of
outflows. You've seen about a billion
dollars of outflows since the 27th of August.
So not something to to kind of not take seriously at the same
time, and that this is for ETH too.
ETH is looking even worse. I do think this is this is this
will come back. It's just a general macro
sentiment at the moment. I don't think that Bitcoin ETFs
have been anywhere near a failure.
I think is his benchmark for that is just laughably,
laughably high. They came in, they've got I
think 52 billion of AUM so far. Like absolutely wild amounts.
Like that's beaten any other first time ETF in history.
So I'm definitely not as barracks as him.
There was also some FUD over the fact that it was.
It was again noted that Black Rock are settling their intraday
trades off chain. So if anyone buys the Bitcoin
ETF intraday, that doesn't actually end up in buying of
Bitcoin intraday. That only happens at the end of
the day when the net figure is settled.
So they're doing these off chain transactions with Coinbase.
It it seems. And there was some fun around
that in that, you know, the volume figures that are going
through are not, are not affecting Bitcoin in any sort of
way. So the intraday volumes that you
see they're not affecting Bitcoin, whether they're not
leading to Bitcoin volume and and that's something to to kind
of note. Yeah.
So a little bit of fun around ETS, but I think that's that's
that's to be expected given the general bearer sentiment.
Bitcoin RSI hit a three-year low, just over three-year low
over the weekend, which is just kind of wild.
The last time it was just low is in July 2021, which is when we
we came off that monster run, particularly in ETH and just got
absolutely hosed. And then we saw a massive rally
after that. So it sentiment just seems
unbelievably low for where we're at.
I think part of this as well, it's like we're already starting
to see the dying of some of the Daps that were big this cycle.
Like that Frentec thing, I think has caught a lot of people and
just been like, wow, like that doesn't look good.
Farcaster, I saw today that daily active users is down 95%,
like big play in the social fire space, which is just completely
dropped off. No one talks about it.
So we're already seeing some of the things that people were
bullish about this cycle not really happening or ones that
were briefly, briefly successful just like nothing going on.
And I think that's gotten people a little bit worried again about
use cases, which is again why I think the the most obvious trade
here is probably just Bitcoin. But we've seen a bit of a
resurgence in some of the L ones.
Sui have was the highest was the best performing L1 over the last
over the last week. Again, some of these are
starting to outperform Solana. I think it's probably something
to like pay attention to at this stage of the cycle like Sui
Phantom, which Phantom has it's Sonic upgrade and it hit kind of
high TPS on that. But just something to pay
attention to basically is what I what I would say is that I don't
think, I don't think any of these are coming even close to
challenging Solana in terms of adoption.
But for a trade, maybe if we do see a RIP in Bitcoin, maybe
maybe some of these outperform. It does feel like they're kind
of set setting themselves up to if you look at some of those
charts versus other L ones, they are they're outperforming.
Meme coins have have bounced but definitely haven't been leading
the bounce. I would say the majority of the
best coins over the last week have been deep in Helium.
I don't know if anyone's paying attention to Helium.
I saw that. It's crazy.
The mobile provider in, in in the US which is, is starting to
have very good network coverage in the US And I think let me
have a look at the subscribers, but they've they've been
smashing subscribers recently and they were the best that was
the best performing altcoin last week.
They've got 112 K subscribers now it looks.
Like wow, wow. And this is a market which can
get, you know, 100, that's 300 million people.
There's a lot of people doing that now.
There's another company that reached out to us and they're
going to be around in Singapore. Up Network.
They were, they were at KBW. There's like there was like
people dressed as cell phones. I think Snoop Dogg and a few
other people involved. There was one of them dressed as
cell phone and you were getting a call from Sam Beckman, freed
from prison. It was hilarious and I should
have taken a photo, but I this is could become quite the use
case. Didn't Iggy Azalea start her own
phone network like this dad? Like I feel like, is that the
new narrative? Are we buying phone networks?
It does. Feel like this is if this if
helium does a good job here. I think some people were scared
about like quality of service and that seemingly is is falling
away. Actually, I saw a map of their
network coverage this week and it seemingly covers like all of
the US. So and the price point is pretty
competitive, I think. So they they have a they have a
business model here, which could, you know, could go if
it's not them going worldwide, a bunch of other people will also
try and do it. I think worldwide.
So that was the best performing alt point last week, which I
thought was a super interesting. You know, like deep in and defy
generally leading and then some of these all L ones that again,
weren't that many mean points are the leaders.
So people are are maybe taking a bit more risk and things that
they weren't taking risk in before, But so maybe we're
already into the new trends of this market.
It does feel like social fire has been beaten to death apart
from fantasy top. And like I said, meme coins,
although I'm relish on meme coins as a long term sector meme
coin dominance. I do think that that the pumped
up funds slash over saturation is going to take a little bit of
time. I think for a lot of these, or
at least you know, there's always a new meme coin.
Whereas some of these I think are from a risk reward
standpoint going into the election could have a could have
a good run. Like if Trump wins the election,
Helium could do like a 3X. Yeah, I mean, there's on the
social fight thing. Like I saw a tweet from Yano
last week. I sent it in the chat.
So it's not Forecasters, it's not 95%, it's D Gen. but
Forecaster still gets 5065 thousand Daus.
It's not bad. But the other one that's
actually leading the charge is an app called Open Social.
It has 100 and 2000 and 10,000 active users.
It's an Asia based social fight platform.
And then you have Lens. But yeah, it's overall not so.
Forecast I see right now Daily active, daily active users.
That was last week. Yeah, that's strange.
Why did? They you know what it is?
No, it was the beanie tweet. He got your ass.
No, it's. Woo This is from Woo Blockchain.
That I, that I. Yeah, woo.
So maybe it's not as bad, but it's definitely down.
Yeah, it's definitely down a lot.
I mean, do you know anyone you like?
And I have someone who was really fan of it.
Like I don't really know anybody that's still on it as much,
especially during summer chop where you people leave even
Twitter. Yeah, I haven't seen anyone.
I think the challenge with it was always there's just too much
of A Twitter clone. People were clearly moving
nowhere for like the D Gen. farming and it's just hard to
replicate Twitter or X like you have to have some
differentiating features. But you know, we'll certainly
see open social appears to be going up only so that they're
doing something right over in Asia.
Like on that note for account, how was the Asia sentiment?
Were you were you following markets?
How are people feeling over there?
I mean, I'll say the same thing I say every time I go to Asia
and back in Asia, crypto is not the future, it's the present.
And when you come back to the West, it's just a thing of the
future where Mandel's right. I caught up on some news and
people are saying that Bitcoin ETF's are dead and that were
already kind of like, you know, marking the whole industry is
dying. But over there it's just like
did KBW was fucking insane like Webex was cool less Japan is
more niche like it was very niche, but like KBW, like every
single major founder, everyone was out there, man like it was
massive. It's the sickest stage I ever
spoke on by the way. It was so sick.
Yes, after the Eiffel Tower one in Paris, but like that was like
proper, like we were only there for 3-4 days and just the
business that I did over there and the quality of the meetings
that I managed to go to and the amount of side events again was
just absurd. Every event was packed.
I think it was 10,000 people show up to KBW, so it was great.
Like we went to an abstract event was packed.
We did an Arbitrum event with radio to crib, so that was
really cool. A bunch of people came like it
was just everywhere. It was a lot of people Ferret
chain event was packed like his there was and there was some
pretty high quality individuals that I got to meet over there.
Funds, you know, a lot of funds didn't deploy yet because of the
market and they're looking to deploy in Q4.
So like there's there's, you know, the sentiment over there
is that OK, sure. Like we'll dip and shit, but
like everybody's, I hope it's not consensus, but everybody's
backing on Q4 lads. Everybody, everybody say yeah,
Q4Q4Q4. You know, let's just, let's just
hope Donnie T comes into office if you want that Q4 pump, you
know what I mean? Yeah, I won't come back to that.
So like, is there a bit of a narrative violation like
happening right now? So like we back when crypto was
pumping and then it dipped and then we we saw the charts,
people overlaying like the price of Bitcoin with the odds of
Trump winning the presidency. And like when you overlaid the
charts, they looked like they were moving pretty much in line
step. And then his odds dipped after
Biden was replaced. Well, well, guess what?
Now Silver's gone back up to almost the high.
It's like they briefly hit 70% on Poly market, you know, on on
the after the assassination attempts, after the Biden's
debate debacle. But they didn't really spend
much time up there. I think 64 was about as high as
they they really got Silver's got it back there.
But it doesn't feel like markets have responded.
I guess that's so Amanda, maybe a question for you.
Why haven't we seen the Trump pump?
Or was the Trump pump perhaps? Was it overly hyped compared to
what it was? I'm I'm waiting for the Trump
pump. That's basically part of what I
part of the reason why I'm going so long is because I think
increasingly looks like Trump will win.
So that's why I'll be tuning into the into the debate on
tomorrow like it feels as slow. Yeah.
I don't know. Those are just Nate Silver gets
it right. I've been following his his
modeling pretty closely. I think the for those who are
loosely following it. So Kamala is still ahead in the
polls broadly across the the nation.
She's got a very slight edge. Part of the reason why Silver's
got it so heavily Trump right now is that Trump historically
under pulse. That his his voter base doesn't
doesn't come out and and show through the the polls.
So he is factoring in he's modeling that under polling.
So if that holds true, that trend holds true for this
election cycle. I would agree it looks like
Trump is somewhat of a commanding favor right now,
primarily because of his performance in the the swing
states, which is again, why I'm surprised that Paul A mark is
only 5247. And of course, we saw for anyone
who I tweeted about this a little bit on Friday, I was
following it, a cohort of just a couple betters manipulated this,
this $800 million election market for a couple of hours.
So there was a bet, there was a weekly derivatives bet that that
expired on Friday. And there was a three hour
window where you could bet on will Kamala or Trump be the
winner on Polymarket on Friday. This cohort bet somewhere around
like $10 million on Kamala, yes, and Trump, no.
They briefly got the odds back to even, but they were unable to
pull off the bets that they lost the the derivative bet.
I don't know how much they all had.
One of the betters I was tracking had like 90,000 on that
but had bet something like 3 million against Trump.
So those that those bets are are down now at least I haven't
fallen up but down at least 200,000 I would imagine.
But 5247, I don't know it. Was a little.
Tight to me ahead of the debate. The more traditional betting
markets have Trump a bit higher than this too.
I just checked Bet Online, they have Trump at -130 I think he
was floating around -1 O 5 -, 110 in the last few weeks -130
is around 56%. I just did that implied
probability. So yeah, a little bit lower
there as well. I don't know what the volume is
on this. 844,000,000 is a lot, but I mean that's a pretty
notable market. Pretty notable tomorrow is the
main event. I'm sure we'll do a lot of
debates prep and and the bets you can make on tomorrow's show
so so make sure to tune in for that.
I think Mando other than that, what what else is coming up?
Any big macro events on the radar this week?
I think we may have CPI coming anything that you're.
Looking at you have CPI and you have the ECP this week, like I
would say there's a lot now, whereas August was very quiet.
You're going to see rolling decisions from pretty much every
central bank, like I said last last week about them cutting
rates or comments about them cutting rates.
And then you're going to see a lot of economic data.
So it's going to come thick and fast, I think for the next few
weeks, tons of data which could move the market.
Yeah, it feels like time to to to lock in there.
There's a lot coming here. That was a good roundup of macro
on memes. There really wasn't a whole lot
of meme action. I think Mando mentioned that
one. Perhaps notable.
Roaring Kitty still has his ability to move markets.
He came back after, well, almost a three month hiatus. 2 1/2
month. He posted a meme of the, the,
the kid from Toy Story throwing away the, the Woody doll, but
with the Chewy face on it, much to my chagrin as a Chewy meme
coin holder. So I had picked up a small bag
of Chewy that the last time, Oh yeah, on this June 27th tweet
and essentially held held it through the summer and now he's
throwing it away. So Roy and Kitty does does not
care about Chewy anymore. It seems it didn't move the GME
market though, I think Logan, Logan, you called this out for
us over at at Lucky Trader. I think we saw what, a 70%?
Yeah, So decent move off the bottom, almost 100%, but still
only at 6,000,000 bucks down, that's significantly.
That's the ETH one, the Solana one I think bounced maybe even
more. You know, just in a really quick
yeah, little 5 minute candle was was pretty absurd actually.
Oh yes, this one's a 32 minute, OK.
Yeah, it looks really small now, but when the when you were?
Zoomed in on the. On the day it it was a it was a
pretty notable candle for the time period.
It So do we just not care about Roy and Kitty in in the meme
coin market anymore? I don't.
I mean, do you guys care? Not at all really I didn't even
see this happen live. Like I don't really have the
notifications on anymore. Then just came back checked in
the the chewy bag. It's probably time to just sell
the the chewy bags into the dust converter for Epic here for the
show. I love how Mando reminds people
every time there's like a major rug or like a coin that just
like goes to 0, you have a tweet from Mando saying remember did
it happen to you again? Make sure to put your dust to
epic. That's so bullish.
The ducks remember, And there was one other meme coin story
here, and I think it got a little more interesting here
this morning. So Machi's, it's been a bit of a
saga, but it seems like Machi's meme coin, which is ticker
Machi, is going to be live for training after its pre sale this
week. And the reason it's a little bit
more notable is Zusu commented here at 4:00 AM this morning, or
I guess this was yesterday morning.
He's calling the novel baseline markets liquidity mechanism,
perhaps a new primitive for this cycle.
So a bit of endorsement there from Zusu, I think perhaps
raising some eyebrows. Namachi did post a thread here
yesterday as well talking a little bit more about what that
the token is and this primitive. He talks about this Afterburner,
which is a smart contract that randomly executes leveraged
buybacks starting with $1,000,000 in USDB.
This baseline value which is the BLV.
So he's saying it's got a minimum value backed by on chain
liquidity. And then the closer you buy to
that BLV level, effectively your downside is capped and you've
got more upside. The concept of looping and
borrowing that they they have in here.
So there are some interesting mechanisms that put in in this
pre sale. But if you look at the comments,
I feel like if this was, I wonder if this was anyone else,
like would this be taken in a different light or if if the
market would be broadly more bullish.
But because it's matchy, all the replies are, is this just your
next scam? And I think rightfully so,
right, to have some skepticism headed into to this one with his
track record. But there's some interesting
stuff here. Yeah, I think, I think they've
already done an excellent job. Tyler.
If you remember when this was announced, it was announced as
an unruggable meme coin, right? That those are the words that
were characterizing this. It's now they've, they've
embraced I, I don't know if the change was before Suzu's comment
or not, but they've embraced the, the new D5 primitive.
And I was mentioning to you before the show.
I, I think if they would have led with that.
And maybe the ticker isn't Machi.
Like there may be some real steam here.
If, if that narrative takes hold.
You know, I mean, there's a lot of ifs, a lot of conditionals in
there, but new D5 primitive, I mean those types of words as
buzzwordy as it is, right? Like those types of things can
set off for whatever reason and say what you will about Suzu,
but there's a demographic here of this market that will look to
his tweets as you know, a potential influence on the, on
the price of the token. So I, I'm interested to see what
happens here. The trading goes Live Today at
noon. The token's already been dished
out to people who participated in the IBLV.
They got their gold from baseline markets.
So I, I'm, I'm interested to see what happens.
I do not have any. I didn't participate, no, no
disclosures here with any whole veins.
But I'm I'm curious if the new D5 primitive is is going to take
off. Brooke, what do you think?
You you buying into Tamashi? I, I, I because I but that's
just I don't have much going on on blast Plus I haven't been
caught up to anything in the last 2 1/2.
I have not made it any moves in the last 2 1/2 something weeks.
So and I won't because I have a massive week ahead, but but you
know, I'll be cheering from the sidelines for people to make
money because we need people to make money right now.
So so I hope. Yes, we do.
I like that. I, I, I don't have any of this
either. So Full disclosure, I, I missed
the, the pre sale and then just didn't play with it this
weekend. I do think it was a good
branding change. I think when you brand your
token as the unruggable token, all my head really goes to is
how are you going to rug this? Yeah, 100.
Percent it does the wrong way the new token primitive.
It's interesting, I feel like we we've seen something like the
the hybrid NFT meme coins do something similar to this right
where you can you buy the NFT, you can always put it back in
the pool to get your initial money back in theory there the
upside is uncapped as well and your downside is limited.
But it does it does that primitive alone doesn't mean
success. Like you still have to have
people who want to come buy it. I think that that's why I keep
coming back to the the looping and the borrowing kind of came
out as red flags when I when I looked into this thread like
Logan, did you did you dive into that aspect of this much not.
Not a whole lot, but I saw the same comments, you know, down
below about over borrowing and you know what?
What happens then? Like I said, there are so many
conditionals at play here with if then regarding what you know,
whatever people can do now I'm I'm like I said, I'm just
interested to see what happens. I'm I'm with Faroka.
You know, hopefully people make money and this isn't a complete
disaster. People lose money, things get
even worse, because it would be cool.
You know, it would be cool to see a new primitive take off
those those little meta bubbles that create that level of
excitement. We could we could use something
like that right now. Whether it's unruggable meme
coins, new D5 primitives, I don't know, but I would take it
if that's the case. There'll be some attention on
this one. Plus blast needs some action,
right? Other than fantasy top, I guess
predict tough fun launched, there hasn't been a whole lot to
do so, so perhaps this will gain some steam and other protocol
news. We we touched on on prediction
markets enough today. I don't want to go deep onto,
but folks, this was a pretty huge headline.
This broke late Friday evening, so I think some folks perhaps
may have missed it getting started on their weekend.
But Cauchy AUS based Collection market won their lawsuit against
the CFTC where they will now be able to list election betting
contracts so that the CFTC there there's actually a follow up
suit. They're trying to to go live
ASAP. I think the CFTC was asking them
to wait another 14 days. They're trying to push and go
live right now, but this is a pretty massive win.
I think if folks haven't been following like these election
markets have been largely or pretty much banned in the United
States. So if that's overturned, I think
that's a huge liquidity unlock. So, so more to come on this, but
this is going to be a really important one to follow another
protocol news Frintech folks, Mando mentioned this in his I
think I'm going to spend a few minutes on this.
The news they effectively, I'm not a tech whiz, but their admin
and ownership parameters have been set to OX000 to prevent any
further changes. My interpretation of this is
that their devs have effectively like washed their hands clean.
They're not doing any more work on the the product.
So people have been kind of calling it the the death or the
end of friend tech that the price chart is, is not a great
one for anyone who yeah, that's terrible zoomed out.
That shit is terrible. I mean, how are you going to
fucking, you know, build something?
Oh no, sorry. Launch something half built,
take $50 million and then not even try.
It's crazy. Hear me out, this is the best
possible thing that could have happened for the friend token.
Probably. Probably.
I think ticker that you know, whatever meta is happening, the
ticker is great. Friend is a great ticker.
You lose all the execution risk with friend tech, the app, you
know, community takeover. There's there's so many little
positives here. I own 0 not financial advice,
but this is this becomes more interesting to me than ever
before. This token, really, now that
they've washed their hands of it.
Yeah, 6.7 mil. I mean, but whatever that's
there's not much work. It can't go down that much more.
I don't know. It's, it's more interesting to
me now than ever before. Honestly I think it's a pure
meme coin, kind of like laugh at this little thing that happened
during this cycle. It is more interesting to me
than ever before. It's interesting.
So you say you're kind of embracing just like the meme
ability of I think bread guy. He posted about this as well,
effectively that it's now primed for a true CTO, which is another
potential out here. I'm not sure if anyone's going
to want to take it over with its package.
In hindsight, the the team doing the the 100% community token
AirDrop was a giant red flag that we didn't pay enough
attention to because at that point they had no more
incentives whatsoever to to run the project.
And it's pretty clear that incentives matter in in the
crypto space and they'd already made their their $50 million.
So Eraser and team effectively has run off into.
That's crazy. I mean, it was a hell of a year
for them. I don't know, that's insane.
I. Feel like everyone's I think the
haters are are victory lapping this and say this was always the
obvious outcome. It wasn't that obvious.
I don't think it was that. Obvious I disagree with that.
Like I think people think, oh, cold it yeah, OK, sure, but you
it's like the same people are skeptical, like everything
essentially, like you're going to be right.
But one thing, like if you hate on everything, you're going to
hit OK, But like I think the red flag was when they fired that
that dude the day before. No pancakes.
Yeah, I think I think that's when shit started.
Like they started losing so much sentiment on the timeline.
Like they were hot. I shit was hot, But I think the
whole 33 and everything kind of made it like, you know, they
they were on to something, though, and I think it sucks.
I think we should be cheering for things to succeed instead of
trying to see if we could be right for one thing to be
unsuccessful. Like people are waiting for
forecaster downfall next to be like, oh, I told you about it.
Like, you know, they're already like drafting their tweets, but
like you need apps to win because it's the same people
that they go and say there's no one building the apps on on
crypto. You know, it's like, dude, what
do you want? Like.
Yeah, they they hate on everything.
Exactly. So like, oh, you're going to
clout chase a tweet where you victory lap, you call the
farcaster. Now they're going to hit on deep
end and the helium shit and then, you know, if it falls
away, you're right. And if it's right, there's not
enough apps. Like, you know what I mean?
It's like, I don't know. I think I think we have enough
bullshit. It it does make me so it raises
the question, so I, I feel like a lot of folks still think
social fight like as a concept can happen, but like what does
it need to look like? I guess it kind of raises the
question of like, So what has gone wrong for forecast?
Like what has gone wrong or for Intech, what were they over
financialized or like were the were the tokens mistakes?
Like what, what does what is the right model?
I guess some people are saying that fancy top of social fight.
Maybe it is. I feel like it's a little close,
like gamify gamify. I don't have the answer to this
question. If I did, I'd probably be trying
to to execute on it. I mean pay chat rooms, you know,
not useful if people post everything on X anyways.
Like I have incentives to post on there because I was getting
paid as a creator I guess at first, but down the line I have
much more incentives. I'll make way more money
building your brand on Twitter, right?
Like having 300,000 followers on Twitter is probably worth more
to me than having 1 E key on friend tech, right?
Like because I would just speak so much more money on the back
of that. So I don't know, I think I think
it was flawed from the get go. They were onto something with
reputation scores and everything.
But maybe that didn't work out, I don't know.
And OX5F, that's how I know him. I think he may have changed his
handle, but he is launching that ethos project, which is kind of
building on the the on chain reputation score.
So I think that's getting closer to watching.
So we'll see if that perhaps it is a positive that that comes
out of this. I was kind of I was questioned
so I was deep in the front extra.
So I think that's not surprising anyone who's been kind of
listening along for a few years. The the my challenge with like
Fintech has a reputation score is who sets your reputation?
And in Fintech it was the largest holders who weren't
always good actors. So like you still have to have a
it's the who's watching the watchman idea, right?
Like, so who, who gets to to decide on on reputation?
That's still an important question to answer.
Last comment on the perhaps timely bocce.
I don't have the tweet up from looks on chain but he's down to
$16,000,000 dude position. Fuck I saw that how?
How rich this MFR? He's got enough to splash around
that he's not sweating $16,000,000 losses on on the on
the Franklin, but perhaps he's even more vested in in
Tickermachi succeeding here today, even though he might have
a little bit less ammo to to fire into the to the secondary.
I'll go through a couple more headlines.
So we got the blast gold for September on Friday night.
I think just the key take away fantasy now in in league of its
own. It is in a new DAP weight called
diamond. They got 1.3 million gold to
give out here this month. And I think it's pretty much
your your your standard list of apps who are who are Next up,
thruster, Yolo games, Wasabi Juice Blitz, Wolf, all getting
pretty sizable chunks of gold so that the blaspheming will
continue, I think while you're gone, perhaps the most notable
action or or punk grills. Yeah, I saw that.
We saw we had that the 8 punk sell for 1.5 million three days
ago, zombie for 2:40 and then the the zombie hoodie which many
are calling one of the best punks in the entire collection.
6. Sell for.
What I mean? 70.
Five Remember Remember like the other one was.
Also one of the best punks in collection was the ape hoodie
which was Danny sold it for 4008 or something.
I think 33 one of the craziest sales.
Cooked, cooked, everybody was hating on him and then market
went to zero anyways. So like to me, like those two,
like are there like two of them like those two?
And then you know that zombie 1, the zombini, that's one of the
biggest grails. And then of course, like some of
them is super clean, like but super cool.
Love to see it. And what was like kind of a chop
week for NFTS punks, actually one of the the top movers,
they're back quietly to a 29.84 so that they did a couple
eighths when the over when the over leveraged buyer effectively
got liquidated. But now they're back up 5% on
the week. Just kind of taking a look
through the NFT board again, pretty much chop board.
Apes are even pudgies are down a ticket 3% node monkeys.
There, even though it was a volatile week, I know Logan's
shaking his head. We had the Rocktoshi drama.
Rocktoshi. Drama.
What is Villainarch? I was a little worried I still
hold a couple of node monkeys of how this was going to go down.
It looks like it's OK. Perhaps we're perhaps we're
rooting on his villain arc. Logan, do you have any thoughts
on the Rocktoshi and. I, I was just, I was just blown
away. I think you should feel OK.
I, I don't have any exposure to node monkeys anymore.
I did for a time. I was expecting after Casey's
comments, remember Raktoshi came out, said he was Co founder of
Ordinals. Then Casey came out and said,
no, not so fast. And the market, it kind of like
pretty quickly shook it off. And then the, I think the most
surprising thing to me was Udi's comments like sort of backing
node monkeys, you know, and and of course big embracement of, of
ordinals as a whole that that was surprising to see somebody
of that stature come out and say that and the, the market, I mean
to be neutral slash slightly up after all of that.
I think that's a huge win in in my opinion.
What's up with our pups? They're just kind of hanging out
chopping at the point O eight level.
I mean, I mean our pups. Oh, no.
Oh. No.
The the we don't really talk about pups anymore.
Let's let's, let's pull this one up.
Yeah, Oh, no. Is the correct, the correct way
to respond to to pups market kept down to 23 million.
So I am officially down on my buys around the $30 million
mark, which is a quick reminder of pain for me.
Was up a clean 30 XA peak. It wasn't enough for me to hit
to hit the sell button. I needed more than a 30X he.
Needed the other two X. He needed the other two XI have.
To get that extra 2X. There was some FUD in the Runes
world. There was some FUD around the
decentralized stuff too. I don't know if you saw that
Tyler, they went. Still in its name.
Yeah. Perhaps we should have seen that
coming. Yeah.
I was tough. It's tough to refresh the runes
board. Yeah, only only do so if you're
seated and you're ready for pain.
I will say it is the worst part of my morning.
Every morning I, I go through for for the newsletter and I, I
check on the Ethernetes, Bitcoin, Solana and I do ruins
and I, I always hate to click the button because I know it's
going to be bad. If it's not bad then it then I'm
immediately elated. But that's that's rare.
The first time it's not bad. Maybe you should sell some.
I think was it he had another good comment on this.
He was saying it's somewhat telling that everyone's kind of
arguing over who created ordinals, but no one's arguing
over who created runes. Perhaps a sign?
That's so funny. Other times there so it's not
great. Decentralized is truly
decentralized. Interesting experiment for the
summer. I mean they spent like 1,000,000
bucks to get that. So this is the number 2 rune.
You remember out of the gate the pre rune went nuts.
Yeah, I remember that. Like 810 thousand USDI think I
mean it was I'm talking about the pre rune ordinal, right, But
it was it was really steamed coming out of the.
Gate even this it's down, maybe it was 9095% higher that.
Chart's horrible. Dude they all look like this.
That's so bad. Other than dog.
Dog is like, I mean, what? So what are the top runes?
So we've got, yeah, dog is doing OK.
It's hanging at 250 million. Let's look at the all time
chart. So I mean it hit, it was closing
in on a billion at one point. I think it got into the 9
hundreds, got rejected off there and then kind of down only ever
since that's that's the top performer and it's not really
close. R6 hanging out 50 million, the
pump hoping that the pump to 100 million that we saw in the last
month was not the only exit pump.
I was the Co founder of Ordinals.
I I guess I have to tell you guys I've never said that
publicly and to my knowledge nobody has either.
But it's true. Before Casey, I was already
working on implementing NFTS on Bitcoin.
When he told me he believed he was the best person in the
world, I agreed. So yeah, figured out there's no.
There's clearly some history, there's some some bad blood.
There's some beef, there's some beef there.
There's there's something. Perhaps more will come out over
time. That was mostly in In a Tea
World. Doodles had a big week and they
released their new music video. They had the premiere of the the
film Dulesville and the Doodle verse.
Then we saw a nice little rare cell.
You know what Cat sold for 26860 K?
You know what this guy, this, this Julian guy, CEO Mr. Hogan
says. There's a lot of fucking credit
took over the thing. Incredible work.
I saw this Pharrell stuff this morning.
Actually, I was catching up and some some work and on the
timeline saw the doodles pic with like Pharrell like posing
and fucking Julian. Hats off hats off.
I I I now like if we see a resurgence of NFTS, they're in
my top three. It's hats off.
Like I love the whole board ape arc comeback like the energy of
the timeline. Azuki's got a big September
coming with anime chain and then you have dummy doodles fucking
like cooking so I love it. I love it too.
We like we are fans of Julian Hogan.
Perhaps we'll get him back on the show here in the days and
weeks to come that they are busy folks.
We've got about 10 minutes left. It is time for our Arbitrum
update here. So a a few topics.
We've been talking about stylists a bit over the last
couple weeks. We got a nice little prior here
from Steven Goldfeder on on what it is.
And I think again the game changer here is that stylus
allows devs to write Rust CC plus plus fully operable with
EVN. So there's think use cases like
more advanced cryptography, crypto cryptography curves that
aren't available on EVM, precompile, existing ML library.
These are all now available on Arbitrum and we are starting to
see some impact of that and projects that are building.
So Superposition stylus season and X Superposition summer has
started. So what is Superposition?
It it's flashy folks. So they are introducing the
concept of universal shared liquidity, where liquidity
exists in a state of super super position.
They're saying this will unlock the long tail AMM.
In advantage of this type of order book is permissionless
access to universally shared liquidity.
Having one shared pool instead of several liquidity pools and
protocols can be built on top of the order book and then utilize
this liquidity for themselves. And then they go on in this
announcement thread to kind of talk about some additional use
cases, how they're leveraging account abstraction and and
arbitrage stylus to make this happen.
It it seems like a very big deal.
I mean, liquidity, one of the the most important concepts and,
and crypto and tokens and protocols.
And now with Stylus, they're able to perhaps unlock more
liquidity pools across Arbitrum across chains.
So I think we still want to see a few more examples from this,
but a very important building block here from superposition.
And then, you know, another development out of Stylus here
is that the Renegade protocol, this is the first on chain dark
pool now live on Arbitrum. Logan, I know you were looking
into this one. Are you able to walk us through
what Renegade? So I, I didn't know what a dark
pool was, but I looked it up. It's apparently, as they've
noted here, the accounts for nearly half the tratify market,
but basically allows for, you know, these big parties to trade
for themselves without impacting the market.
So they call it a dark pool. And previously you mentioned the
crypto, the cryptography updates now available with stylus,
they're allowed to utilize kind of those improvements to enable
those dark pools on chain. So allowing, you know, excuse
me, parties to take advantage of that and not lose to things like
MEV bots, copy trading, arbitrage type stuff that, you
know, kind of comes with blockchain and the transparency
of them. So this is this is really,
really cool. Renegade also an awesome name as
an aside. Yeah, but it's a it's a really,
really cool name. But taking advantage of that,
you know, very clear direct impact of stylist, you know,
with the advancements in cryptography, I think if if
you're someone who I'm not the technical person, but if you're
somebody who like is a huge cryptography nerd, like there's
no better time probably to be messing routes, things like this
with stylist now on Arbitrum, seems like we're going to unlock
some use cases that, you know, I'd only been probably dreamed
of before and now enabled Renegade being one of them with
the dark pools. Dark pools Renegade done an
excellent job on the branding as well.
Seems really really cool. Well, I mean, even for a casual
trader like myself, I, I still want to avoid MEV bots.
I've I've been victim to the sandwich attacks, you know,
doing casual trades on chain. So there is a real benefit to to
trying to avoid that and. I'm sorry, Tyler, I'm just gonna
and and you can actually do it as well here with with Renegade.
I think they call that out in the thread.
Like this isn't just institutions that that's where
it's utilized in traditional finance, right?
Like these major, major institutions that are moving
massive size that could impact the market.
They're doing so in the dark pool to avoid that here.
I mean, you, you know, you have much bigger size than most
participants, right? But like you can participate.
I could participate and that's, you know, that's a, a huge
advantage to miss out on those MAV bots and things like that.
Well, and I may not be worried about being copy traded, but but
perhaps there are whales who don't want to be copy traded,
right. And here's like that's one of
the advantages of dark pools as as you can act anonymously.
This was a big deal back in the NFT run in 2021.
I remember guys like Andy, Andy, 805, Two or or DS, we were all
tracking their wallets. I have notifications on for both
of you. I've had them on for a long
time. It's an archive chat on Telegram
now, but at one point in time. At one point in time.
And I remember folks saying, well, I'm going to spin up some
alts so I don't just non-stop get copy treated and there is
some some real utility to that. So shout out to to renegade.
This sounds pretty cool. Stylus making it happen.
So Stylus summer, that really is happening on Arbitron.
In fact, they've got so many bullish updates and they just
keep coming. So shout out to Arbitron.
We we love partnering them with them here on a weekly basis that
folks, I think we're going to wrap up today's show.
Quick note, we do have an announcement with Kraken coming
tomorrow. So stay tuned for that.
I will have Robit spins back later in the week this tomorrow.
I think you are out, but then we're going to have you back for
good. I am out tomorrow.
We've got some pretty big announcements going live in like
an hour or so or more. I don't know.
I'm freaking out. So yeah, this is like, yeah,
yeah. Anyways, So yeah, this is like
the biggest thing we've announced since merging with the
Crypt. So to be big like twice a year
we have something big enough to give me a panic attack, and it
happened an hour ago, So. So yeah.
So we're out there and then tomorrow I'm out because I'll be
on the plane flying back to Canada and then I am on the East
Coast for the rest of the year. I'm so excited.
Big, big, big, big. Couple of months on the way and
yeah, we have 6 robot spins this week, so stay tuned.
Big wins coming, big wins. We're winning a punk this week.
There's gonna be a punk. It's going to be a big day.
It's going to be a big week. You heard it here first, folks.
As for today, thank you for tuning and we will be back
tomorrow to break down all of today's action.
As for today, go have a great Monday.
Go make it a beautiful day. Goodbye.