Good morning, good morning everyone, GMGN and welcome to
another episode of Promo. Our day is Thursday, April 10th,
2025. Folks, another day for the
history books is behind us. Yesterday, the stock market post
its biggest daily gain since 2008, I think arguably the third
biggest of all time. We have the crypto tokens
soaring as well. Recession odds are dropping.
And now the question is, is the worst behind us or are we in for
more pain? We're going to break it all down
on today's show. No Faroque, no Mando.
Mando is busy actively launching Ye.
I think it's going alive as we speak.
He might pop in and say hello, but in his place we still have
Logan and our favorite resident statistician, Sam.
Jim, how you doing? What's up boys?
How's my sound going? Are we OK here?
Yeah, sounds great. No issues.
Perfect. I'm good guys.
Good to see you. Thanks.
Thanks for hopping in. I mean, up 12% in the stock
market. I got a fair bit of money in
crypto, but I actually got more money in the stock market.
So I almost get more vocal when the stock does, when the stock
market does crazy stuff. So crazy week.
We're we're in similar boats there Logie, with the yellow
backdrop which I'm now associating with you.
I actually like that Neil backdrop quite a bit.
How are you doing, Jim? I'm doing really well.
Another beautiful day here in Trujillo, Peru.
I'm feeling pretty good, can't complain.
And of course the the market bump even if down a bit from the
yesterday's little peak there that just adds adds a little bit
of fun to the day it. Was a fun day.
You got to enjoy the green days. If you can't enjoy the green
days, why? Why are you even here?
Why, why, why show up every day? Your existence is going to be
miserable. Folks, what are we talking
about? On today's show, Trump told
everyone to be cool and then a few hours later he paused all
the tariffs except for China. It does seem like the rhetoric
might be dialing down. There might be a China
negotiation on the table. We'll talk about that.
The European Union agreed to a 90 day pause.
CPI inflation soft print this morning.
Markets rallying but dipping here this morning so we'll talk
about that. Can we trust the rally or not?
Fastest runners on the board yesterday prompt huge debut here
this morning. A lot of FUD out there.
So we're going to address the FUD talk is that a buyer sell
this big coin Ponzi keeps cooking over on abstract doing
shockingly well. The Senate confirmed crypto
friendly SEC chair Paul Atkins Magic Eden made your
acquisition. They bought Slingshot.
A lot of folks thought that was one of the best trading apps
that we had. That was a big acquisition.
It pumps Runes Pups is UPS, shockingly.
We'll see if it pumps Ordinals as well.
We'll get Sam's thoughts on that.
We might do a YEEP preview as well before we dive in and want
to give a shout out to our partners starting with Galaxis.
Galaxis is a web three platform empowering creators and brands
to build unstoppable communities with full ownership and
independence, trusted by icons like Donald Trump, Steve Aoki,
Mike Tyson and the NBA, shaping together the future of
engagement and wallet connect is the connectivity network shaping
the future of on chain UX. If you've connected to a web 3
app, you've seen wallet connect that blue logo, it's everywhere.
And I kind of trust in crypto as recognizable as a visa at the
checkout. If you want to learn more,
follow at wallet connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of
what's next and our new show partner yeetyeet.com.
We've got the the ref link scrolling at the bottom of the
screen. Folks, if you want to be
eligible for our daily yeet contest, go ahead and sign up
into the code FOMO hour in that referral code section under your
profile to make sure you qualify.
Those are going to start next week, so we are very excited for
our new partnership. With that, let's go ahead and
dive into the the market report. Sims.
If you want to play the music, I'll do my Mando impression
here. On FOMO our.
Cause the kid can. Great to Bastion bears.
Love the transition music. I was going to clear my head, so
let's take a look at the board here folks.
So Bitcoin up 4 1/2% here today. We're holding right around
81,000. ETH up 5 1/2%, XRP up 9%.
That's the top mover in majors. Soul at 1:13, up quite a bit
over yesterday, but retracing here this morning.
If we take a look at the CNBC board, so stocks down about two
or 3% so far on the open. Let's look at the 10 year, 10
year is down a decent chunk since yesterday it was 4.4 back
at 4.3%. So those are some of the the key
numbers out there. This the story of course is out
of Donald Trump. So yesterday paused the tariffs,
90 day pause to let these negotiations start to unfold
with one caveat of China, the China tariffs, I think we're
bumped to 115% or 125 that the number is rocketing by the day.
The others are down to 10%. We saw the EU respond this
morning. They are going to do a
reciprocal pause as well for 90 days while we start to sort this
out. So some positive news there.
The market loved it yesterday. We saw massive candles across
the crypto board. XRP and Seoul were some of the
winners. Hype was a big winner for coin
as well. Several stocks soars well, I
think MicroStrategy stock was one of the the top movers on the
board yesterday. It was up something like 25%
giving back some of those gains here today as well.
But but they were a huge winner. I think the question is, and
we're starting to see these takes the morning after everyone
was euphoric yesterday. It felt like at least coming out
of the doom that we were in. But now it has has too much
damage already been done. So I think that is a question
that's on a lot of folks minds here this morning.
Sam, I'll toss it to you just first like high level reactions
to what played out yesterday. Like were you surprised and how
are you feeling on Thursday, April 10th?
Yeah. One thing I do want to say, PO
has been in my DMS, asked me to come on his MicroStrategy
podcast, and I'll say it here. I'm going to do it.
I'm doing it so we can tell PO I'm going on that podcast.
He's been asking for a while. Mando is on there.
I'll go on. So yeah, that's that.
I'm just getting that out of the way first.
We can cut that and just send that over to PO.
Look, you know, three months ago, a move like this would have
rocked Donald Trump, you know, like a move where he did
something in stock markets went down 15% in one month.
You know, that's the type like, you know, the, the, the, the way
that Trump was talking, the way the administration was talking,
you know, golden era for America like, and, and we can't lie that
like the stock market's part of that.
And it was certainly part of the way that he measured his
performance in the first term. You know, it was very tuned into
the stock market and we got this crazy move and, and, and the
dialogue shifted from like, you know, Navarro and people were
saying markets are going to go up overtime.
But Trump and Besson started saying things like this is about
Main Street, not Wall Street. Wall Street's not what we're
optimizing for. It actually started going
antagonistic a bit towards the stock market, saying the stock
market's about globalists and about Wall Street.
And I actually started to feel like investors were becoming a
bit of like an enemy. So I was a little worried that
he wasn't going to reverse course.
And that was clearly wrong. You know, So I think to me,
there's just a huge sigh of relief as someone who is an
investor, as someone who who spends a lot of time in markets,
that that what we saw was that Trump was willing to make moves
based on what the tenure was doing and based on what the
stock market was doing. So I think that that was like,
to me that that in itself is like very positive news.
I think the way to push tariffs forward, you know, regardless
your view of tariffs, I think that this way of going forward
with starting with 10% for everybody, giving it the 90
daytime that something of this magnitude deserves to get to the
negotiations where you want is simply a better route than the
way he, he initially kind of proposed on Liberation Day.
So I think, you know, I think objectively, just rationally,
this is a much better approach to get a feel.
You know, one thing I learned at Uber is you never know how your
ideas are going to impact the marketplace.
You think you know what it will happen, but you have no idea
because marketplaces are just massive, massive organisms with
so many different players. So giving starting with
something like 10%, but giving the marketplace time to sort
itself out probably like the logistics.
Of tariffs have to be difficult. Like how, what, how does a
company in the back end even do a 45% tariff to to Thailand in
three days Like these are, it just strikes me something that
needs time. So I think from a signaling
perspective, I was relieved because I came into this
administration expecting him to be extremely market friendly.
I got very doubtful of that two days ago.
From the way he was talking about this market move.
And to to see like a bit of a reflex in the right direction
for markets, I think was it was positive and I just think
objectively, you know, as we embark on this like higher
tariff kind of paradigm easing in makes a lot more sense than
the way we did it before. Absolutely.
I think that's hard to argue. I think folks rooting for that
across both sides. A lot of follow up questions
here 1. I think there was somewhat
consensus reply like that's the art of the deal baby.
He, he, he just nailed it. Curious for your reactions to
the Art of the Deal. I mean, I, you know, I, I have a
hard time seeing what we got here.
I think, you know, in my dream, it's very hard to differentiate
because we still don't really know exactly what he wants and
we don't know exactly like what the timeline says he wants is
often very, very wrong. But you know, if, if the goal
here was to get the 10 year lower, which was a lot of people
thought, while the 10 years higher than before liberation
day, if the goal was to make asset prices do well.
Well, I, I think our biggest, I saw some commentary that like
the EU was saying that every day was hurting the US more than it
was hurting them because, because every day the stock
market like was Volvo and, and kind of in sham give everyone
else more leverage. So I like it.
And it almost feels like that's what played out here.
It's like our markets tank. So he can't.
So, so he switched. It wasn't like there were
concessions from other people like I what do what, what is it
that we got in return from other folks in exchange for this?
So I personally would not say that this was like a master
class in deal making. I I could.
Probably wiggle my way into how it could be, but that's
certainly not my reaction here. I the tenure is a lot higher
than before it started because while we have leverage over our
partners, they have leverage over us as well.
You know, our assets are broadly owned globally.
They can dump them, they can do certain things and I think we
saw that you know and that was a lot of what got it got got us to
the table. So, and I say us as America, I
know a lot of our our listeners aren't American, but for me,
it's hard to to really look at this and.
Say that we are in significantly better place than we were on
Tuesday of last week. Yeah, I think that's that's a
fair take. I think it's too early to to
rate this whole thing as a pass or failure.
We were chatting about that before the show and that this is
something that's going to play out over months and years.
Oh yeah, you can't say this is a like that.
Tariffs are a failure. I just say like was Liberation
Day brilliant deal making like that?
I have a hard time saying that. Yeah, I think that's very fair.
And objectively, I think I said a few days ago that the simplest
explanation that was that this was a negotiation tactic that he
started extremely high with the with intentions of coming down.
I think that is proving out to be the the reality here.
The thing I struggle with this idea of negotiations, if is if
you like, it was like with, I think of the one with Canada,
right? Like with Canada, you know, we
like, we, we slapped some tariffs on them and then at the
end of the day, like we got a fentanyl SAR in return, you
know, and then ever said part of the deal, like the tariffs are
over. If he had called Canada and
said, Hey, we're going to slap 25% tariffs on you tomorrow if
you don't give us a fentanyl SAR, they would have said, take
ten of them. We will hire 10.
We don't care. Like if people know what they
can do to get these things done ahead of time, I think people
would do it. It's just a lot of like a lot of
the commentary also I've read a little bit about kind of their
negotiation is that they weren't even sure what would make him
happy. So it's very hard to know like
what people are getting. I mean, Switzerland doesn't have
any tariffs on America and they got slapped with big ones.
Like what are we actually trying to squeeze from them?
What are we getting from like a lot of this feels more
theatrical than it feels like a deliberate negotiation tactic in
my in my view, because I don't even know what the winds are.
Like if we're getting the Panama Canal or whatever stuff that we
actually care about, if we want, if we're, if we're getting
fentanyl down or stuff that we care about, that's one thing.
But if but what are these wins that we're getting?
Like it just feels very vague. Yeah, I think that's fair.
Objectively more losses than wins.
I'm very, it piqued my interest to see the Main Street
conversation really start in the last couple days and then a
quick pivot that benefited Wall Street the most.
And I guess you could argue it benefits everyone, but I think
you mention it, it felt like he was attacking markets,
specifically the stock market, but they just caved in to to do
something to help save the stock market to a degree.
So like what? Which is it?
Main Street and Wall Street are very tied.
I mean, it's like, who's going to give these jobs to Main
Street, You know, You know, if, if, if the big corporates are
have their equity value down 15% in a month, are they more or
less likely to build a factory? You know, it's like, it's all
very, I think it's all very tied.
And I think when you start hearing main.
Street, not Wall Street. I think that's like a bit of.
I'm sure there are scenarios. Where Main Street benefits on
Wall Street doesn't doesn't benefit.
But to me, I hear. Populism in that.
It's like, it's like we don't care about this thing that's
failing. We don't care about this thing
that's rejecting us. We care about you like, well,
you care about it. It's just rejecting.
You so you have to kind of shift your your dialogue a little bit.
Yeah, exactly. Logan, I've seen you.
Not in a long. Curiously, I love our reactions
to all this. Yeah, I think stats did a great
job of breaking it down, the signaling, you know, that you
mentioned this whole Main Street versus Wall Street and, you
know, is Wall Street an enemy? Like I felt the same sort of way
the last few days. Didn't make a lot of sense to me
that this narrative started to come out.
I think in particular from my view that best in comment from 2
days ago was the one that like spooked me the most.
But I think yesterday exactly was that it was a concession
towards Wall Street. It was which makes, you know,
those of us on this show and many of those watching who have
investments and who will continue to invest feel just a
little bit better. I know there's going to be some
craziness, of course, tons of volatility.
That's just the way that this administration operates.
But being willing not to run us even further into the ground
without conceding in some way that, hey, you know what, this
might not be the best path forward for all parties
involved. Was, was kind of nice yesterday
so that the sell off today or whatever it may be, like I, I
don't think yesterday was an end all be all.
We're out of the woods type thing, but it to me it was a
little bit of a reassurance that, you know, I don't have to
call my mom, tell her to just like pack up the four O 1K or
something like that so we can feel a little bit better moving
forward. One non serious thing about the
Main Street versus Wall Street was there were some excellent
tweets yesterday at the conclusion of that.
Kind of the like, you know, FU Main Street type things.
I can't remember the quotes off the top of my head.
I just remember laughing and giggling at a few of them.
Yeah. Here is the one that that
tickled me quite a bit. I'll I'll pull it up for those
who fall along on the stream. We'll get the stream posted here
in just a minute. Folks eat shit.
Main St. as stocks started to rally.
I thought that was humorous. It was a great day to be on X
for sure. It was relief, much needed
relief. But I do think like the question
is now we're starting to look ahead.
Like a lot of these big companies have their earnings
coming up. They're going to have to share
some forward-looking guidance, like what the hell do you do in
the next 90 days? Like there's still so much
uncertainty. And I think that's what's being
reflected. I think you had the markets
truly tanking because there really was worry there that like
the markets were just no longer a priority like that this Main
Street versus Wall Street thing was going on.
Now it's like, OK, well, there's that plus the fact that the
numbers, the tariff numbers were pretty excessive.
But now the question is just like, OK, like what is a 10%
tariff on the world? And how does that impact
Google's earnings? How does that impact Apple's
earnings? How does that impact their
visibility, their guidance? Like those are ultimately the
stock markets. How much money our corporations
make, you know, And I think now like, so we had a huge rebound,
I think on the idea that this was becoming a priority again
and that we weren't going to jump off the Cliff.
But I think now you're seeing, all right, well, now, now we
have to see how does this actually matter?
If you actually look at the numbers, like I think like, like
I, I, I'm not an economist myself, but you know, something
like 15% of GDP is imports. It's like a few trillion
dollars. You throw in a 10% tariff on it,
it's a few $100 billion total weight, you know, and the stock
market was down 10, like 9 trillion at its worst.
So there is a piece of that wonders like OK are the is the
removal of market cap we've seen?
Just excessive relative to the actual potential impact here.
Yeah, I think that's very fair and and a wide widely shared
concern at this point in time, like 1 notable.
Relief. I'm also saying maybe like these
these moves are overblown relative to actually the.
Dollar value impact that a 10% tariff is actually going to
have. Also very fair, I think one of
the the, the metrics that have been touted across Trad 5
outside of even just our our CT circles is the US recession
odds. They peaked around 70%
yesterday. I think I saw it at 60.
I think cow sheep perhaps at 68 back down to 5053 right now
live. If you had to pick a side in
this, what side are you picking, Logan?
Me. I'll talk to you then.
We'll, we'll. Go to Logan, Why don't you go,
'cause my kids? Sure thing.
Yeah. Well, the most difficult part of
this conversation for me, Tyler or just the semantic, the
potential semantic arguments listed down below here, right.
So the true definition in the way Polymarket is grading is
based on the what? The two straight negative
quarters of GDP. Is that right?
Yes. So you can't really, you can't
really get yourself around that. You know, like, you know, Trump
is going to do everything he can.
The administration's going to do everything he can to avoid using
words like recession and and conceding in that way.
But all things considered, what we had negative in, in Q1 and so
much uncertainty here, I think I'd probably be on the yes side
at this number. I mean, it truly is a coin flip
even, you know, just with the odds as well.
I would have liked it. I think it's like correctly.
It's correctly. Yeah, I would have liked either
side more if and when they were. You know, as the spread
increases. You know, this is one of those
things you can often do this with some prediction markets
like as you deviate from 50% just kind of sell in and out of,
you know, just like you'd be trading in and out of momentum
because I do think it's, it's closer to probably a coin flip
type thing. It was a good buy at 37 cents
probably, maybe a decent sell at $0.70.
Because I don't think we have the Q1 numbers, I saw them
floating around somewhere between -3 1/2% -, 2.7%.
So not only it has to be more negative than that as I
understand it. Oh, OK.
Yeah, so you have to have two. Oh, I see.
Increasing quarters in a row, it's decreasing quarter over.
Decreasing quarters, yeah. What do you think, Tyler?
Gun to my head, if I had to bet this, I would bet yes, because
of still all the uncertainty out there, less because of the
immediate tariff impacts, but more on just people kind of
tightening up. I think we've already seen some
decreases in industries like tourism and it's beer companies
perhaps not wanting to spend until there's a little bit more
certainty around what the next six to six months to four years
looks like. I'll be honest, I went out to
dinner with friends. I was like, let's go somewhere
cheaper than normal tonight. You know, I'm I'm already
seeing, you know, with markets down, you're just like, I don't
want to spend as much money like the like I've seen it in my own
activity. You know, our friend was Geebs
was talking about how. He had a friend from Germany who
almost cancelled a trip here recently.
Like I yeah, I don't know how much tourism actually matters
for GDP, but it. It does feel like the inclinate
like that there are a couple factors that I'm just seeing in
my own circles of people being a bit.
Less kind of spend heavy than like.
Two months ago, I made a big donation to my school, You know,
like we've. It's amazing how quickly that
changes. Can I interest you guys in a a
few months in Peru? You won't feel so bad about your
daily. Live rate What's your daily?
It's, it's very low. It's a little bit different
right now because my fiance's family's in.
So we've been going to dinner and I've been picking up checks
and stuff. But for example, we we got
dinner for five people, a bottle of wine and desserts last night
and I I think it might have been $50.
Total. Maybe.
Yeah. And you probably went high end.
It it was above, yeah, it was above average place.
Not not super high end, but above average I'd say are.
You in a city or where are you? Yeah, I'm in the third largest
city in Peru, Trujillo. It's it's definitely not a
tourist hotspot by any means. It's not like Lima, Cusco or you
know, some of those others, but it's city.
That's sweet, that's awesome. Let's, I think we, we talked
about the big picture, let's maybe start talking about some
market impacts. So we talked about stocks,
Bitcoin at one point it almost printed a $10,000 candle
yesterday because it was at 74 K on Tuesday night around 8:30 and
then it got to 80 or did it get to yesterday 83 four.
So like a $9000 bottom to top move now holding on 881 three.
Same. I think we have this little bit.
It does feel like Bitcoins outperformance at this point is
is notable perhaps under gold, but still like compared to the
rest of the markets. I mean, it's up 2% this month.
I mean, I think like the more that the US.
Positions itself less as like the center hotbed of the world's
activity, the more like the US dollar perhaps shows signs that
it doesn't want to be a reserve currency.
I'm not sure if we've seen that in currency markets, but at
least in rhetoric like you, just this is the narrative that
Bitcoin was made for. I will say that Bitcoin
historically has not treated like the narratives.
Made for like a lot of the narratives that we discussed on
the timeline just aren't. Reflected in the.
Marketplace, but you know if you look at.
Assets relative to where they were when Trump was elected.
I mean, Bitcoin is still by far one of the biggest out
performers. You know, obviously gold
probably more so, but. You know, we're still at 81,000
despite what's been a very rocky couple of months.
So I think the market is starting to, to favor Bitcoin in
the scheme of risk assets. The you know, the the downside
is like you can't say that for anything else in the crypto.
Complex other than far coin. Like, I mean like eats full, you
know, dough, like pretty much everything is getting hammered
the way the rest of the risk asset world is getting hammered.
But it does feel like Bitcoin itself, like the narrative that
this would make, it's we're getting hints, we're getting
hints that it could be perhaps that they like that perhaps
there's some chance of a bit of decoupling from.
Just NASDAQ, which I think is kind of what?
The people in the space would like to see.
Now, to be fair, being correlated with NASDAQ has been
a great thing to be correlated with over the past 15 years,
like being a risk asset has. This has been a very strong risk
asset stretch for a couple decades.
But but yeah, I'm starting to think like maybe, maybe there
are hints that we're going to start.
Getting a bit. Like if I had incremental
dollars to put in, like, would I put in a NASDAQ?
Would I put in a Bitcoin? Like, yeah, I think Bitcoin
probably right. Now, like it feels like it feels
like a better thing to own. I tend to agree.
And I think there's this this whole like there's the Dalio
argument that we're we're moving towards the new world order,
multi polar. You had the like, we didn't even
have a chance to dive into that statement from the the US
economic advisor council where they basically came out and said
there's a lot of problems having the dollar be the global reserve
currency and how effectively I could you read, read the pieces
like they were comfortable moving away from that.
What was my interpretation of that?
And I don't think that's something that happens
immediately, probably plays out over decades.
But that would be a bitcoins a winner there, right?
I mean, the only thing that's clear is that foreign money
wants to be less entangled in the.
US. And rightfully so, right?
Like we're making it very clear that there is volatility to
doing business with us that maybe we don't even want this
level of like the people to be so intertwined with, with with
US decision making. So if if you're China, if you're
Europe, if if you're really Australia, if you're other
economies like and you can randomly get get a massive
tariffs slapped on you or other things like that.
And this whole dialogue. About about how you have to.
To negotiate now, like when two weeks ago, like this wasn't on
the table, you know, I, I can see a world.
These guys, all right, you know, maybe going forward we got to
distance. Ourselves a little bit and
perhaps Bitcoin becomes winner there.
The story that was floating around yesterday, mostly because
Van concluded it in a in a post or a webinar.
The news actually came out about a month ago, but Russia has
started to use crypto currencies to sell oil trade.
So China and Russia are are doing oil deals using Bitcoin,
tether and ETH actually. Did that get verified or was
that like I saw some comments saying it's?
Unverified at this point. It was from Reuters.
They said they had four sources that they didn't and they didn't
want to name because of the sensitivity of of the deal.
The other thing that the other the other deal that the other
thing post where? Everyone was saying this is fake
news. Was that world liberty was
selling their 8th? Is that did did we get word on
that? I, I didn't dig in.
I thought that was fake though, that that felt more fake.
And I think more people would have been like, you think you
could just Arkham First off, like Arkham is not always the
most reliable source for whatever reason.
Like for a, a protocol that is built on like on chain tracking,
I think this should be very determinable.
Like, was this their wallet or not?
And like they're using words like maybe.
And so I don't think it was. I think we would have seen more
loud cries in the timeline. Yeah, it is.
We always do say everything is on chain, everything's on train
on chain. But we don't say how hard it is
sometimes to link wallets with actual human beings like it is a
bit of a wrench. I.
Think in the everything's on chain argument because it's it's
very hard off and to to link wallets with with people unless
you're like have mad mad. Information, yeah, very true.
So I think the the full verdict still out on that, but leaning
no. I mean, looking at some of the
other winners, we, we, I talk about hype a lot on the show and
there is a reason that there was a point where it was one of the
top movers yesterday. It was, it hit $10 I think 9:50
at the at the bottom now back to 14.
So it's above the exploit level, Logie, I guess any reactions to
any of the of the top movers that we saw?
No, no major reactions. I mean, I think the the group
was led by a cohort of sorry, the the move was led by a cohort
of assets that you'd anticipate being the the strongest if there
was a very strong market wide boost.
So you know, Ripple, we talked about that yesterday.
That was just coincidental that it ripped right after the show,
no pun intended. But you know, AVAX like all
those things, Doge, I mean 10 to 15% right.
That's the type of group that if you are looking to find a little
basket of performance expecting a a larger market wide bounce,
like that's the type of group that you you can always sort of
rely on far coin man. This has been this has been
awesome. I don't I don't even own any,
but it's been awesome to see just the resurgence here.
So what, 260X or sorry not 260 X 260% gain in the last month?
Talk about outperformance pretty loud it.
Hit that yesterday. I think folks were going to see
like how much is this going to pop on the good news and it
delivering. What do you think drives far
coin Tyler? Like it's such a like we talk
about it all the time, but what do you think?
Actually are the drivers here of price.
Large mind share outside of just crypto Twitter circles.
So like Eric Balkunis is a notable ETF analyst.
Yesterday he organically was like someone had posted about
how the stock market was rallying and he said and far
coin rallied even more. Why is it always why is it
always far coin? It's it's in it's rent free and
Travis heads. So I think that's and they have
huge audiences like you look at some of our like influencers
following counts versus some of theirs like they're they're in
the millions, some some of these folks.
So that's bigger reach. I think this the general decline
of new options and and memes that have survived and people
are consolidating into into winners.
Yeah, I think, I think it's the simplest like dumb coin, like
all the other meme coins, Doge, she whatever, you know, they're
meme coins, you know, they're like in you know, there's no
intrinsic value, but those don't necessarily represent anything
beyond now Doge I think has graduated to that level at this
point, right. Like you kind of recognize Doge,
but fartcoin, like everybody knows a fart.
I. Mean I do too.
It's like it's like my favorite thing to to to send to my I
don't have any crypto friends where I live, you know, and it's
a lot of like kind of people who are big into financial markets
who just aren't into crypto. So that's always the meme you
send them. I was more asking like, what are
the things that make it go down? Like it like this thing can go
it went went down to, to like it can tank as well.
Like it's like you saw, you know, is it like illiquid?
Are there insiders? Like are there insiders is the
wrong word? Are there whales who manipulate
it? Like is there outside of the
bull case? Like what are the things that
move it in either direction? Or is it just?
I mean, it does a lot of. Just like asking which way the
wind blows. It does a ton of perps volume
like on hyper liquid like let's see, like it's, I think this is
this ranking here is effectively in the perps trading volume.
So it's sixth of all the crypto assets on on hype.
And some days those are long. Some days those are shorts,
right? And like you, you've got the,
the mercenaries out there who are more than happy to flip
short on these things. So like that.
And that's where you can drive the, some of the cell cascades
down as well. But I mean, again, and like
liquidity pools are small, smaller compared to some of your
larger tokens, of course. So less capital can can drive
the, the more big moves in either direction.
But it's hard to argue that it's not one of the the biggest
winners. And now like that, the lifetime
charts starting to look good again.
Like for a while I had to kind of zoom into the last month to
to to show the picture that that I, my bias wanted to show, but
now zoom out. If you believe in meme coins as
like what they're meant to be, this feels.
Like the perfect embodiment. Yeah, and this people don't need
to know this, but it is pretty hilarious that an AI agent
actually came up with this idea like that is the origin.
Yeah. Truth Terminal came up with the
perfect meme coin, and it turned out it was.
It was damn right. Maybe the robots have a chance.
I think, I think there's a non zero chance that, you know,
let's say crypto fades into irrelevance.
That fart coin is like literally the top coin.
Not maybe not over Bitcoin, but. I think it could be the top
meme. 100% there's a there's a non zero chance of that.
I think there's a non zero chance that has its own chain
fart chain. I don't know that we want that,
man. We're introducing too much stuff
now. Execution risk with fart chain.
Maybe it creates like dosh. Dosh has a chain, right?
Well, I mean, yeah, but that's how it started.
That was his own blockchain. Oh yeah, I guess I didn't know
the the full story there. Well, we talked about this
point. I'm sure we'll talk about it
more In other AI news, we had a huge TG today.
It's a prompt. The Wayfinder token has gone
live. It's opening at a $40 million
market cap, $180 million FTV. Some fun out there.
Logan, you've been, we were talking before the show.
You're a day one catcher. How?
How are you feeling with your reactions here on a big TG day?
Yeah, obviously excited that it's finally out.
You know, I've mentioned this a few times in the last few days,
but it was awesome to have Kalos and Adrian on last week to see a
little bit more about what, you know, the vision is and the
future is for Wayfinder, which is kind of the the protocol or
platform that prompt is powering.
I feel OK. I think, you know, difficult
conditions to launch into and all things considered, when you
compare this to a lot of the other AI tokens, like we pulled
up the board yesterday, you know, $174 million FTVA, $40
million market cap, not all that bad.
My expectations were higher, but perhaps that's just me being
anchored to some of those previous, you know, lofty AI
token valuations and some of course, opium as a, you know, as
a prompt, sorry, as a prime casher in response receiving
prompt, but I feel I feel OK otherwise.
I haven't been able to dig too much into all of the the FUD.
I know you mentioned what cashiers feeling maybe a little
under saying underpaid doesn't seem right, but you know what I
mean under rewarded for for locking up their prime tokens.
So I can't comment just because I haven't, I haven't actually
seen mine, what it looks like to either join in or to say, no,
you know, it's not too bad. But I totally recognize the
potential fund there. If, you know, people who have
dedicated themselves to this ecosystem, locked up assets in
this ecosystem and have felt like on the other end after, you
know, providing some level of commitment that their commitment
was not rewarded or, you know, seen it as such.
So. Yeah, I think 2 primary fund
angles. One, the distribution to the
prime cashiers felt low. And I'm speaking personally as
well. That was my initial reaction
because I, I put a healthy amount into the prime token,
have cash for the 900 day Max and I got like 30% of the tokens
that people in the top 100 on the Kaido Yap board got for no
capital commitment. So that's tough to stomach.
And then the other foot angles, I think folks on this is a
ridiculous foot angle. People didn't know that they
were going to have the requirements that you had to be
an emerging yapper to to get the yap points.
So basically if you were, if you already had a certain number of
smart followers, certain number of yaps, you didn't get the
reward. Whatever.
I'm pretty. I'm pretty sure they
communicated that like 100 times.
Yeah. So I think this is an easy one
to cross out and you didn't put anything up for that other than
a little bit of your time. So you spent 30 minutes.
You you you put some stuff in the ChatGPT and you and you
schedule some tweets. No one feels bad for you.
I do feel for the prime cashiers.
But with all that says like that is the fun.
But I think I mean, look at this AI board.
So prompt is right now coming in at it's the 12th token by market
cap on this list. It's below the goat token.
It's blow act blow chain GPT blow AIXPT that that does not
make sense. It's like from a relative value
perspective, this token is is too cheap for for what prompt
is. And I guess for those if you if
you didn't watch our interview with with the the founders, go
back and do it. But like effectively what the
wave Finder tools enabled they, they've got effectively a
natural language smart contract coding agent they have, but
basically you can write whatever crypto program you want, limited
by your imagination. Effectively they've got an on
chain trading copilot Midas that allows you to do effectively
whatever you want to do. It maps out the steps for you
and you can run simulations to see do you actually want to do
this or not, which is also pretty much unlimited to like
what you, you know, what type of transaction do you want to do?
They've got the incentives in place to have folks, people are
incentivized to build out the bridges.
So like, let's say you want to bridge from Seoul to ETH to buy
a smart chain and you want to look for the best USDC yield
across all three of those chains.
If they don't have the pass for that, you will earn prompt
tokens by building out the paths to help execute that transaction
for future people. So I do genuinely think it's
it's one of the strongest products we have today.
I think that one of the issues is that like it's very hard to
actually like these relative valuations make sense.
It's very hard to back into absolute valuations.
And we anchor ourselves to valuations which are a product
of the amount of FOMO in the marketplace when they are
launched. And you know, it's like our
people, like I need to get this because tokens are ripping
tomorrow and I'm going to be able to sell it for more to
someone in a couple days and I'll buy it for today.
That is like that is the question people are asking.
And I think they're more anchoring themselves to recent
TG ES than saying holy shit AI XBT is at is at this market cap
so I need to buy prompt because it's lower.
That's just not the way the marketplace is.
Rewarding people right now. Like the key you know is how
high is the FOMO that people think that they can can sell it
higher very soon based on the way other TGS have gone and like
we could not be in a worse. Environment for that.
Actually, I'm sure we could. But but.
Never say the environment, never say the environment around here
can't get worse. But it is not, it has not been
the environment that you're going to jump into for the sake
of like people FOMO a product. Yeah.
And that that actually, you know, that creates quite a bit
of opportunity here. If you, you know, if you believe
in prompt, if you believe in what the the way Finder mission
is, if you think that a product like what they're providing and
building is going to be actually useful for crypto participants,
either whether it be ourselves or the next, the next
generation, should there be one of on chain active participants,
then this doesn't seem all that bad as the 12th, you know, the
12th AI token at $40 million market cap.
I think, you know, just circling back to some of the FUD as well.
One of the issues that you know I totally can get behind a bit
is. The communication stuff is
difficult. I think they were, they were
forthright about to the best of their ability about like the
dates. But otherwise tokenomic wise,
they deviated quite differently from how others have
communicated token launches, right?
Like there was not a full packet, 25 page packet with the
tokenomics, right? Not to my knowledge.
Has anybody seen anything like that?
That doesn't mean that that's bad.
It's just that it was different. And like, I don't, I don't even
know. I don't even know what the
tokenomics are. I don't know.
We were asking for the show, Tyler.
Like, so you've got Prime locked up for five years.
I've got Prime locked up for five years.
Like, am I entitled to something a little bit, you know it down
the road as a result? Or was kind of everything
smacked up front here? No, I don't know.
As I understand it and I don't have the details.
I think you're right, maybe they haven't been shared, but 40% are
going to cashier's and it's ongoing.
So it was not a upfront 40%, but I don't know the specific
diesels and I think that's also you.
Know I'm going to ask a dumb question just and maybe the
listeners have this question, maybe they don't.
What are prime catchers? So prime is the the token?
Yeah, caching is just staking. Just another word for staking
and prime being the parallel ecosystem token.
OK, so people who have that state got.
Access to the token. Yep.
So from the from the jump, the primary ways to earn prompt was
either by holding the prime token and staking it.
I think there was a way to earn it via the avatars, but I don't
know if that was passive or if you had to use those in the
game. Those were going to be the
primary ways you could do it. And then they they enabled the
social program. I know here in the in the last
month or so, I see Brett has joined us in the spaces.
Great guy, good good friend of the show.
Your hand is up. Do you have some comments on the
on the prompt? How are you doing?
Friends yeah, I so OK, so like, you know, I'm coming from the
technical side of the house. Some FUD that I didn't hear you
guys or maybe aren't even aware of.
It's some of the smart contract FUD from the actual launch.
Have you guys seen the recent exploit?
From the the Kaido side of the house that was breaking like
right before we went, we went live.
Yeah, well, so I don't know if it's the Kaido's sort of the
house, but just like people claiming from the actual
contracts like there was 1A fudd piece like there 2 ago from pop
punk writers, like looked at the contract after it was deployed
and saw that it had like, you know, like one O 1 errors and
like hard coded values that are silly and you know, stuff like
that. So there was some FUD around
that of like the irony of a project that's coming to market
as like this on chain GPT thing that couldn't even deploy their
own sticking contracts. And then they already paused
claims on the prompt stuff because there was an MEV front
runner because they how they coded the claim.
So anytime someone tried to claim, someone stepped in front
of it. And because the claim didn't
guarantee that it was, it had to go to the person who was
initiating initiating the claim. MEV bot was stepping in front of
people and they wrote a called a yoink.
So they're yanking the actual claims from people for you know,
a couple hours. They've accumulated like 200 ETH
from people that were trying to claim.
Wow, so 200. Dollars, so that might impact
price action a little bit. Yeah, it, it certainly has.
So thanks for sharing that. I, I, I wasn't aware of the
details. So that's going to, that's,
that's going to hurt some of the sentiment.
Day one. I will say in disclosure, I, I,
I, I did buy some this morning. So I am a bag holder and that's
not the right word, but I, I chose to buy.
I, I had an AirDrop and instead of selling it, I chose to buy
more. I do think this type of launch
enables the type of price action that people can rally behind
versus like where you had the TG ES that come out super high,
overvalued and then everyone races to sell.
And then this the chart looks terrible for the rest of time
versus one that comes out of the more reasonable valuation and
people can actually choose to, to buy in for longer term or
actually hold their airdrops. So I think this is set up for
that. So we will certainly see.
Brett, thank you for joining us. A couple other quick topics
here. This this Ponzi game on the
abstract keeps going folks like I think it's it's at the point
where it's worth talking about. It's a classic game where you
you get this, it's a it's a mining game.
It's called Bitcoin, playoff Bitcoin, similar to tokenomics,
and effectively there's ways you can buy equipment with their
token and you mine it. And then yesterday they released
an update where you can sell some of your equipment back at
90%. Then you can upgrade your
equipment. Anyways, the token is doing
quite well, so the game is staying alive.
I don't know there's much more to say about it than that, but
it's fun to see some success playing out on abstract these
days. Some folks having fun with this
one. I think that the larger piece of
news that we haven't touched on yet.
Major acquisition in the NFT slash broader crypto space.
Magic Eden acquired Slingshot. Slingshot is a trading app.
I think people trade meme coins. This is whatever coins you want.
I was not a user, but I am in chats and and friends with folks
who were power users who said that this was the best training
app on the market. So this is a big one.
Logie, I see you're nodding your head.
Like, what are your reactions to this one?
Is this a big one here Remy? Yeah, I think so.
I mean Magic Eden wants to sort of be one of those everything
apps at this point, right, The NFT trading, they of course are
to my knowledge the hub for Bitcoin stuff.
Not much really happening there at this point in time, but look
at. That green?
Yeah. Oh yay, some green.
I don't even see RSIC on the board.
That's how bad it's gotten you. Don't want to see?
It yeah, nevertheless, you have to be in everything type app,
you got to have everything and you have to have a a product
that supports that. And they didn't really have
token trading before, right? Didn't have a a way for folks.
Now if you're using like the Magic Eden wallet.
So I use like Magic Eden wallet from time to time for select
things, you know, there's some swaps and stuff in there, but
otherwise there's no like simple trading platform via Magic Eden.
So this is an opportunity and you have, you have to have, it's
almost a prerequisite if you want to be a big, big, you know,
trading infrastructure beyond NFCS, of course, it's a
prerequisite to have token trading at this point in time.
We know from the, you know, the open C announcement long ago,
they're going to be implementing that into OS 2.
So this is, you know, this makes a lot of sense to me.
It's, you know, it's a pretty natural fit and they, you know,
by acquiring Slingshot. I've not used Slingshot, but
yeah, same, same thing. Anecdotally, I've seen pretty
high praise for for how purchasing tokens on the
platform works. Yeah, I didn't realize it had
the training abstraction behind it, which I actually think that
is a huge unlock because it is a pain in the ass.
Like if you're like a native Solana trader and then you see a
token on base that you want to get into those extra steps.
Like it is a real barrier. So if they remove that away that
that is a big benefit to the user experience.
Sam, I'm curious for your thoughts and maybe just kind of
Part 2, just like where like what's the stack ranking of NFT
marketplaces right now? Yeah, I have a few thoughts
here. I mean, 1 is like magic.
Eden is, at its core an NFT company.
But I think it's just clear right now that as much as we
want to sit around and wait for the glory days of NFTS to come
back, like, it's just not. Going to pay the bills at least
you know, we gotta do something else so.
Right now you just. Have to be outside of just the
NFT space like it like ordinals are are so cooked and but but
ETH NFTS are as well as like. When was the last time you heard
someone talk about a Solana NFT like?
It's just, it's just been, it just has no mindshare right now
and we've been waiting for over a year and it's not working.
So it's not surprising that these guys feel like they want
to expand. One thing I was thinking is like
have is M&A, has M&A ever? Gone well in the crypto space.
Like do we have? Like do we, we have like the
Google buys YouTube, Facebook buys Instagram examples that
show that M&A can be immensely accretive to, to companies like,
but I just M&A is very hard and it requires very good leadership
and operation skills. And, and to be honest, I
actually know the magic eating guys quite well.
It's been a fair bit of. Time with them and I think
they're as good operators as you're going to get in the
space. So, you know, it's certainly not
the team I've kind of out, but. It's not like it just feels like
something that hasn't like really made headlines as a side
of the initial announcement in our space.
And the third thing I said, I have no idea anything about a
slingshot, but you know, there, there are a lot of crypto
companies that are, are actually willing.
To be bought very cheap like Aqua hires are common.
I have no idea if this was one of them, perhaps not, but but
there are. Like the amount of companies
that are like that that want to get acquired because it it's
hard to make, it's hard to get by as a business.
In this space. You know, so but again, I, I, I
almost feel uncomfortable saying that because I just don't have
enough. Context on this product to know
kind of where it stands in that in, in in that rank order.
But I have seen a lot of like acquisition announcements on the
timeline where kind of three weeks ago I'd heard that the the
acquired company was like shopping around like basically
like Aqua hire type situations. It's clearly a direction that
the the NFT marketplaces are going.
I think all the so blur is just kind of out to launch.
They're they're happy with their current product.
It seems open C leaned into token trading.
Magic Eden clearly has and then Tensor with Vector, right.
So like it's it's front facing. But the same time, I think
Vector has had some success. I guess if they're standalone
apps, people will use them. But like, I, I don't think
people are going to NFT marketplaces to trade crypto
tokens. Yeah.
No. So I think open season have to
figure that out for their for their app experience.
I think because of Slingshot's got users, Vector has users.
And I I haven't heard great. Things about like magic Eden's
moving to wallets like I, you know, I, I personally don't use
it, but. You know.
It's not great. It's it's not great.
Like people are still using. Phantom and and you know, and
and Rabby and freaking meta mask or whatever that that's my sense
at least. Oogie real quick, but market
impacted this this story for both of you.
I guess that the new speculation for runes is that they're going
to be tradable on Slingshot. That doesn't answer the question
for why anyone would buy a runes, which there is still no
good answer for that question, but clearly the market liked it
like this is some of the the most green we've seen in in
granted probably just somewhat of a bounce.
Scroll down, keep going, Show me it.
Just show it. It's red on the deck.
Can you? Oh my God stop it.
Jeez dude, Arsic is such a mess. I fumble a large decent chunk 6
figure air drop which is now worth almost 0.
Effing hell. But we we live and we learn.
And there's just no. It's an interesting case study
like. Why are runes such a fail?
You know, it's like. They, they, they've been a fail
as meme coins have done well and as Bitcoin has done well and
meme coins on Bitcoin. I mean the fact that dog is
still above 100 million I guess is nothing.
To scoff at, but like, like it is wild how in the most bullish
meme coin environment we've ever had and the most bullish Bitcoin
environment we had had in a little while.
I mean, obviously Bitcoin used to go up 1000% per month or
whatever, but like. In one of the more bullish
recent Bitcoin environments, certainly after the election
that that meme coins on big on Bitcoin were just such a.
Colossal fail and I it's. A lot of what?
I try to do is figure out what drives prices and what makes
things work here and what makes things fail.
And like, if you knew certain things, you know that, then
what? Which stuff could you infer went
up And yeah, I, I haven't really wrapped my head around why this
despite everything else, like just could not take off.
It's a tough one. I don't have the answer either.
I think people will say like the the point to wealth effect.
Just wait till there's a wealth effect.
I mean, we had a wealth effect, yeah, arguably one of the
biggest wealth effects that on chain traders have had.
One thing I think is so important for any asset is that
you have one thing that kind of surprisingly takes off like once
Dogecoin takes off and becomes a $10 billion meme coin, like then
everything else could be the next next Dogecoin and
everything else starts about once punks take off, then jpegs
can be valuable. And once you know and and and
board apes and all these other things come up because we know
that we've seen some some some duration to the pumps.
We've seen, you know, in this market when Pepe took off, that
opens the floodgates for whiff and all these other things to
kind of be the next one. But I almost feel like you need
that FOMO source that like. That that father of all FOMO.
And to to just make people move into the space, made people set
up the wallets. I mean, I personally still don't
even know how to trade rooms. I like there.
There has been nothing yet that has made me back.
I got to figure out this process to, to, to, to chase any of this
stuff. And I think that that's and that
that first one can't be manufactured.
Like if you look at punks, if you look at Dogecoin, if I mean
Pepe was. Manufactured so maybe not, but
like. Almost all these things like it
feels like it, but but you could argue Pepe was was kind of
chasing Doge too. Like you just need that one
thing that kind of, you know. Chromey.
Squiggles that surprises people and then that that injects the
FOMO into the into the. Marketplace that that is 100%
necessary for anything to do well, I mean.
And in AI you had it as well. With AIXBT and a few others.
Yeah, it's hard to see what that catalyst is going to be.
Maybe we'll we'll be shocked. We're going to close the show
here and just say that. But this tweet from DGMD, like
kind of drops my jaw there. Yesterday when I saw this, I saw
you retweeted as well, Sam. He, he, he priced our current
NFTS in ETH as of the December 16th, 2024 prices.
So four months ago crypto punks are at 14.9 ETH in those ET
terms. Pudgies are at 3, squiggles are
1.5. I mean this is.
Someone forgot to tell this guy that one ETH is 1 ETH man.
So I I think it's fair to be a little disappointed in some of
the price action. Do you guys, it is like I love
punks, man. I'm like I'm I'm a huge I just I
I I'm AI have like the collector's FOMO.
I like them. Like every time I announce the
punks, I'm like, damn, I kind of want to know one.
Like, I really like punks, but yeah, you have to be.
Worried about the fact that like this.
Thing that has nothing to do with.
Punks like the ETH price is kind of like going to be guiding
your. Future we're down.
So it's better for worse. The the punk Bitcoin spreads
going the wrong way. The punk Bitcoin spread is going
the wrong way, and it's all because of freaking Ethereum.
But we will continue to track it almost daily on this show
because it is one of my favorite spreads and I agree with you
that punks are incredibly collectible.
And I also hope to to have another one like this one, for
instance this beautiful blonde. You like the blonde girl?
Incredible punk, that is. You know, it was a really good
tweet that I saw about this, this NFT thing recently.
It was actually from Kevin Degods, who I believe what left
the gods like well before the downfall, right?
He said here's the real reason most NFT projects failed.
They mistook speculation for product market fit.
And it really does kind of, I mean, can you say it any
simpler? That's that's probably.
Say that again they mistook. Yeah, they speculation for
product market Fay. Yeah, no, I mean, yeah, I mean
the, the, it's the, it's the issue that all.
Crypto faces AI face the same thing I mean, I, I, I actually
say it was more cute with AI where there was this idea that
like. Look at NVIDIA.
Like AI is going to be huge A. IXBT is the way you do that in.
Crypto and suddenly, you know, virtuals is a $3 billion token
and AIXBT is hundreds of millions of dollars and it was
but at the end of the day, it was all speculation driven.
You know, it's just and it, it can be hard and I do like that I
do still like, I still like the, the collectible product market
fit. I think that that that the the
collectible product market fit is there, but one other tokens
became utility tokens. It becomes very hard to grow
into the price points. The price points are just too
high. Yeah, even even at current.
Prices like 10s of thousands of dollars for apes or whatever.
Like for something that's anything but a collectible I
think is is going to be hard to fill.
You could argue it's a collectible.
And I think that that's the best argument for it.
I think the bull case for scarce good digital collectibles is
strong as ever and getting stronger Brahmas with the the
non scarce ones and and then how do you get into that?
Or the non collectible ones. You know, it's like, I think we
like most of the stuff just doesn't have Brahmanas.
Like I, you know, mutant apes, for example, like how many
people are like, damn, I really want, you know, a grin mutant
ape right now. Like, you know, I just, I just,
I don't know if it ever crossed that threshold to which people
are really like. This is going to be valuable in
10 years. Whereas I think there is there
is a lot of assumption or at least speculation that punks
will be like that. There's something about the
narrative and and and the. Provenance that they would.
Yeah, I agree. We'll we'll see what what tests
the what stands the test of time.
Folks, we're 4 minutes over fun conversation day.
Sam, thank you so much for joining us.
But that is going to be it. That is our show.
I want to thank our listeners. As always, I want to thank our
partners. Thank my coast and Sam for
joining us. Folks.
We'll be back tomorrow at 10:00 AM Eastern to close out the
week. Till then, go make it a great
day. Bye.