GMGM, everyone, just me and OSAF today, two British guys are left
broke. Is is in Paris, I believe
already. We're going to be there later in
the week, but this is going to be like the the shows of old.
We're probably going to have a slightly shorter show and he
only go through the main stuff. But how are you?
How are you doing today OSAF? Good.
Thanks. How are you?
Doing sweet that Autoglyph is looking better and better behind
you, isn't it? After after today's antics.
Yeah, definitely. Did you tell you?
Did you tell your your wife that what one of them was worth
yesterday? No, she wouldn't get it.
Didn't come up, didn't come up in conversation.
She did say, what is that? I just said it was a just an
AFT. And and you have another leak in
the house, so that's and. They have another leak in the
house, yeah. Yeah, feels like you got rugged
to her. Completely, completely rugged.
Anyway, we will, we will get straight into stuff.
It's going to be AI. Don't know.
It's still quite a lot to talk about today.
Wild stuff still going on crypto every single day.
We obviously back from President's Day yesterday.
So U.S. markets are are coming back in macro and crypto seems
to be swinging all over the place right now.
But yeah, it's still still quite a lot going on, right.
We'll get into stuff. So Mick, why don't you give us a
brief rundown of what's going on in macro maybe today, and then
I'll I'll go through what's going on in crypto.
Yeah, it's not looking good for stocks today.
Stocks are down, down about 1 1/2 percent on the NASDAQ now.
So tough day for stocks. Interest rates are interest
rates actually have rallied. They've rallied about by about
10 basis points off their recent highs.
So just kind of feels like a risk of sentiment in macro
today. And I guess that's spilling
over. Well, is it spilling over into
crypto? It depends what angle you're
looking at it from. But, but yeah, macro is a little
bit soft today. Yeah, I think we've got NVIDIA
earnings tomorrow. So stuff seemed a little bit
soft going and maybe into that. Difficult to tell, but yeah,
maybe just people coming back from a long weekend.
Nothing really happened yesterday.
That thing in macro like Europe and and Europe, Europe and Asia
was relatively quiet. So just feels like a week a day
overall. And crypto, well, crypto was
feeling very, very good about a couple of hours ago, right?
Like in the group chats we were in East, I think hit 3K or just
over 3K. Bitcoin hit 53 K It was really
just those two though. It was really just the majors
rallying and then alts were I think precarious to say the
least. And then ever since kind of just
before the US Open we we started to dump.
Ether's now down to 2900. Bitcoin went close to 51.
Ki think just now Solana went all the way down to 104 I think
in that move and a bunch of volts are probably down about, I
don't know, 3 to 5% in the last hour alone.
Does this surprise you at all? It doesn't surprise me when you
look at the funding rates right now and I I know we've spoken
about this lot in the last two or three days, but funding has
gone up day by day. And if you look, if you look at
that heat map thing, it kind of shows quite a big change in
funding over the last few days. So it does feel like leverage
has gone up quite a lot and thus you're just seeing some nasty
Wicks out there across mainly across altcoins.
It's less so on on Ethan Bitcoin because obviously that's where
the buying is occurring right now and that's where the the bid
pressure is. But yeah, across alts there's
you know, high funding rates and a few, you know, a few nasty
Wicks that's causing these moves lower.
So it doesn't on that note, it doesn't surprise me.
I don't think it's a bearish thing.
Like remember we had really high funding throughout most of
December and parts of January, yet the price went up a ton,
like crypto went up loads, right?
But what it does mean is that your price action is not going
to be stable. It's going to be rather than
just being like this nice steady ascent, which is what we've seen
in the past few weeks because funding has been low, it's going
to kind of be more like that. Yeah, but moving higher.
So no, this is a good. Context doesn't it really like
we still had some big rally in December and funding went bad?
We've started to see it. Interestingly, these top two are
still pretty blue, so Bitcoin and ETH have stayed pretty blue
throughout all of this. They haven't seen the huge
funding that we saw before, but in all coins you know you're
starting to see funding really start to pick up.
So for example, funding on Solana is at 33%.
Back at the start of this month, it was around 10%, right?
So it's about 3X. Similarly for Bitcoin, I think
it's more like a 2X, but it's at, yeah, eight now, eight then
and now it's at 18. So it's definitely picked up.
It's not crazy and I don't, like I said, I don't think it's a
bearish sign, it just it just leads to more volatility and
it's easier for you to get shaken out.
So you just got to be aware of it, particularly in some of
these old coins, you know when you're like you're funding your
aid alongs, I don't know who's doing that, but at 60% a year,
that's a little bit dicey. Solana, yeah, was at 33, it's
gone all the way up to like 50 over the last couple of days and
you've definitely seen an under performance on on the back of
that. So funding is definitely
something to pay attention to. I think it's more of a sign that
the market's going higher. Efe just has the narrative right
now and I think we I saw yesterday that the the CME open
interest is at the highest level it's been in in a couple of
years or actually all time. I think let me just bring up the
the minutes from today. But that very much feels like
what we saw just before the the Bitcoin ETF right.
Like it's ether's pretty much playing the same playbook that
we saw with with Bitcoin where the CME futures open interest
starts to to spike and starts to hit all time highs and all these
Crowdfire guys start to try and get long ETH and then we see
potential ETF. So I don't think fade that I
think it's very tempting to buy some of these like oh this this
thing's underperformed that thing's underperformed but that
that would be the case if there was like no drivers and it feels
as though ETH now have has a very strong near term driver.
I don't know what you think. Like have you been looking at I?
To be fair, I did buy a little bit of Solana just before the
show went live, but have you been buying anything else or
have you been tempted to buy anything else?
No. Like I've been toying back and
forth. You know obviously have a lot of
ETH that stays on blast right now and that unlocks this month.
So I've been back and forth as to whether keep it to keep it on
there or to move some to Solana. And you know there was maybe a
moment where it just the bit the ETF those weren't great and it
felt like ETF wasn't going to catch that beard and I was
considering moving some of it to Seoul.
But even though Seoul Ether is down quite a lot towards 0.036,
I think I'm probably still going to keep it there because I think
we have until May until the ETF deadline and I just think it's
going to keep rallying until then.
That's not to say that ETH will outperform Solana in the in the
next two or three months. I'm actually not sure on that
but I think ETH plus Blast will outperform Solana in the next
two or three months. That's my that's basically the
bet. I have, yeah.
I think that's. I think that's a fair bet and I
think this is this is kind of what we often see or what is
often seen in bull markets. Bitcoin moves, then if Bitcoin
moves in the final kind of move is is more of the altcoins move.
This one was this one was slightly weird and that Bitcoin
moved and a bunch of alts movement.
ETH didn't move. Now you're starting to see ETH
catch up. I don't think that's necessarily
bearish for altcoins though. I just think that that just puts
off that rally for a little bit longer.
There's no doubt that, you know, if ETH gets to 400, five, $100
billion market cap, you're going to see a bunch of other old
coins below it start to rise as well.
So I think the focus on ETH right now is just something
you've got to accept if you're not in the other things.
I don't think it's a terrible time to buy dips in some of
these alts, but I think if you're looking for something
that's going to outperform over the medium term, the the best
risk reward just seems to this seems to be ETH right now or at
least that's that's what it felt like this the market itself like
we don't know did, did we, did we see anything from the ETFs
already today? No, you you may start to see
some numbers get reported throughout the day, but it's not
really until the end of the, you know around the US market close
when we get the full flow numbers.
So I haven't. Seen anything like sometimes we
see like big tickets coming through from Black, from Black
Rock or tickets tickets. That come through are actually a
day late, like you get the info numbers today and they act on it
tomorrow, so when you see that look looks unchanging, that's
usually actually a day after we get the info numbers.
Makes sense. I do think it was interesting as
all this today, which is that the the Bitcoin holdings on
Coinbase of a lowest level now since 2015.
Remember Coinbase is the custodian or releases the, you
know where a lot of these this buying is happening and there's
a lot of talk about this supply shock situation.
It is that is kind of wild to see how low Coinbase must be.
I mean if you're sitting there at Coinbase, look at that
outflow, there's a, there was an 18,000 Bitcoin outflow over the
weekend and I don't know, I don't think that's ETF related.
I think that's like maybe even slightly different.
So huge, huge outflows and this supply shock thing I think is
something that you can never really be bearish on.
Like we're sitting here going like we are not bearish, but you
just got to appreciate the swings.
I just don't see a world where Bitcoin is not going higher with
with the sort of outflows on Coinbase and and the inflows
going into the going into the ETF.
Yeah, I mean it's like we talked about the other day, like half
of Blackrock's ETF inflows across over 400 of the ETF
products in just one ETF, which is the Bitcoin ETF.
So I I think the inflows are going to keep coming and you get
moments when maybe like the crypto market wobbles a little
bit because funding gets high and we have a long weekend and
people are waiting for the the big inflow and then it never
happens and then leverage gets wiped out.
And then I think we'll keep going higher after that.
But it's just going to be, it's going to be a bumpy Rd. high if
leverage stays high because you're just going to keep seeing
these leverage wipeouts. I think.
And it just, I don't know. It just seems really dumb.
Not dumb, but like, well, yes, dumb to trade on meaningful
leverage right now. Because I think I'm like.
Calling you dumb mate. I'm not calling you dumb, but
I'm just saying like, for people who who are constantly getting
wiped out, like we're sitting here with like one of the best
bull markets ever potentially, and you just have to own some
stuff and spot and just hold and people will end up destroying
their capital from getting liquidated just like you've.
Got to be very, very careful, yeah.
If you use an average, make sure you're buying it on the dips.
I think here there's still a lot of money to be made.
I don't think you should necessarily not use it, but you
can. You need to know when to use it.
I think it's the right, it's the right term in terms of sort of
stuff. Which move is in focus today.
The whole deep in narrative came back strong.
You saw File Coin and Are We which are two kind of OG deep in
coins make a move. There's been a few new ones, and
that's actually a helium move, quite a lot.
And then the big one was, was Starknet.
The Starknet AirDrop I think is happening as we speak.
I thought I saw Tyler put out a tweet, yes, as we were going
live that this thing hit $30 billion FTV, which would easily
make it the biggest. The biggest AirDrop, Yeah, 23
billion, I think it peaked at around 30.
So huge, huge AirDrop there. Obviously I I think I've been
seeing quite a lot of FUD over over time and around this.
I think the users dropped by like by 80% straight after the
AirDrop closed and there was a lot of FUD around it.
But kind of just says that people just want to buy a new,
narrow new coin. I guess it's not really a new
narrative, it's kind of an old narrative.
But 25 billion, I mean that's that's bigger than arbitrary I
think. Yeah, it's wild.
I mean there's a few of these like big ecosystem coins that
are coming now that are like there's going to be multi
billion dollar market caps. You have, you've had just had
this, you're going to have layer zero, you're going to have CK
Sync, like there's some big, big stuff coming this year.
I think it's funny because people will look at the the the
total crypto market cap which will grow a.
Lot 60 million of TVL on stocknet, everyone that is a
that is a $23 billion coin right now.
See how that one goes? Kind of.
It is maybe a bit frothy out there when you see stuff like
that. Yeah, that is, that is wild.
Crazy. That's Solana's at like a $45
billion market cap with all the TVL that it has.
But I know, I know, you can't. It's not comparing light for
like, they're two completely different things.
But. Just thinking about like.
Breaking it down to like extreme basics in terms of like how much
one thing is used versus the other. 100% I think.
I think the main thing is, is this the start net market cap, I
mean you know this from if you've done many like bull
cycles is that the the classic thing is that the FT VS makes
zero sense. People just focus on the current
market cap because that's what you can pump.
So you can get some absolutely crazy FT VS and the the the
market cap of 1.7 billion. I mean that that could be pumped
around whatever. You know this happened with
Worldcom yesterday, Worldcoins worth more than Solana on a
fully deleted market cap. It's kind of it's kind of crazy.
So some of these will increasingly not make sense and
25 billion is high, but it makes me, I guess it makes you even
more bullish for blast, right, Like blast could be you know
could could be kind of silly levels if if they they play the
same playbook. I think so, yeah.
I think I wouldn't underestimate how FTV is just a meme right
now. It's just a meme.
And probably what's more important is actually the
circulating supply. But even that, to an extent, is
a meme as well. It's just like when the coin
comes to did they market it really well?
Did they distribute it really well?
Did they get any FUD? What's the the vibe feeling
like? And if everyone loves it, it
will pump. And if everyone, if someone has
some shade to throw at it, it will, it will go down and then
people just move on to the next thing, it will be whatever it is
will be short lived so. It's kind of numbers.
Yeah, these numbers are just random numbers now really.
They didn't even give out 10%. They gave about about six.
I mean this is the classic thing.
If you can, if you can only give out 5% or maybe 5 to 10%, maybe
5 to 7% in your AirDrop, these FT VS make even less sense.
Like I thought we don't know how much blast is going to be,
right? There's an assumption that it
might be 10, but it could be some of these are five.
So but maybe 5 means you have any more crazy valuation because
people can pump that current market cap even more.
Yeah, this sort of stuff just makes you think that's going to
be bigger. There's a few other big ones
obviously coming in the next in the next few few weeks.
It feels like we already had Pixel yesterday, which is at
nearly 3 billion I think. Let me just double check which
is the is the Sky Mavis game which is, which is kind of gone
absolutely insane. This is it.
Yeah, 2.5 billion. That's the new Axiomfinity game.
That's that's a 2.6 billion. I think there's going to be a
few of those few of those over the next couple of days anyway.
Yeah that that's gone wild and and just another sign that we're
we're kind of in a frothy period here for what's going on.
The the other thing I saw today was was SPF have you seen this
photo of SPF two in the rounds. So Tiffany Fong, who is kind of
a kind of a like friend I feel like of SPF, did a bunch of
interviews with him through his through his incarceration period
and maybe even just before that as well.
There's a photo that's emerged of SPF in jail.
Spot the odd one out. I feel like on this on this line
up he there's report. I think the report was that he's
more gangster than Takeshi 69. What do you think of him here?
He's going to be in there for a long long time.
But this is you don't fuck with that crew, right?
You know what this reminds me of?
It's like you have like a a film about a heist or something and
you have all these like gangsters who are there like,
you know, like breaking the doors and and that kind of like
driving the gateway vehicle and stuff.
And you have that one like nerdy guy who's like the hacker who
like takes down the camera systems and stuff.
Like that's what he looks like here.
What are the challenges you think of SPF of breaking out of
jail like he he I know what you mean.
It does feel like a movie, and it does feel like he's like
hacking the system to make sure all of him and all his mates get
out of jail. He looks proper unhealthy there,
doesn't he? Like because he put, he
obviously put on a lot of weight when he was, you know, right
before he got found out. But look at how skinny his arms
are there. Apparently he's not showering.
That's what I was the other thing that was put in here, so
not going to make any assumptions there, but not
showering is the other thing. So SPF not known for being
perhaps the the cleanliest man is is now going even worse.
But FTXI guess someone's getting their money back.
But still, it's kind of funny. I feel like he's still going to
be a figure looming over crypto for like the next 20-30 years.
Like whatever the fuck happens, I think he's he hasn't been
sentenced yet. So we we still don't know how
he's going to be in full. But I think there was a Poly
market. Actually, I was checking this
out the other day on how many years he gets in prison.
Let's be able to see if we can find it. 50 years, 2424% chance
he gets over 50 years. So people think he's going to
get a lighter sentence here, it seems.
Anyway, yeah. And then let's go on to what's
been going on in in case you. Don't remember Sam Bateman Free?
OK so you don't remember Sam Bank, we're free.
We do what's been going on in FTS.
So we spoke about what's been going on in some of these, some
of these coins. But there was a big move in a
bunch of different FT projects yesterday.
We've gone to digens, rec guy being one of them, rec guy,
sappy seals, world of women, even Moonbirds like it's been
decent period for that mid tier index you might say, but
definitely feels like a slightly better period here for a bunch
of different NFT projects. What what do you think this
continues do you think it's a strong period now for NFTS?
Feels like a lot of people kind of returning and and looking at
a lot of a lot of different things at the moment.
Retkai just knowing that from being part of that project just
feels as though people are starting to feel much more
bullish around things around NFTS.
Yeah, I think the, I think the tide is starting to come back
towards NFTS. ETH is now back in focus again
because Ethereum is doing well, well, each price section is
doing well and you have, you had a few big sales, you had the big
Autoglyph sale, you've had a few big punk sales, Hodgy Penguins
are doing well, which you know get gets some some wealth back
into the ecosystem. And I think there are a handful
of projects from the 2021 to 2022 era where the communities
have been kept alive and they're still thriving and they're still
very strong. And who they haven't really had
much fun or haven't tripped up that much and those seem to be
coming back into focus as well. So it's nice to see some capital
activity flow back into NFTSI think we're still not fully
there yet for like a proper NFT bull market.
I think we still need to see crypto get back towards all time
highs, but we're certainly on our way.
It could be, could well be the the very start or beginning of a
run up in NFTSI think because you're still you are seeing
those big sales, big sales for me shows as capital coming back
into NFTS and we've had a handful of them some from
Sotheby's auctions and and the three AC stuff we're now seeing
like bigger, bigger you know bigger prints.
There's a lot of speculation on the alien punk that's listed
right now. So once those start turning
over, I think it restores confidence in NFTS again and
people are more willing to spend capital and and get those bigger
tickets and then I think everything else starts to rally
again as well. It's still tough to judge.
You know, will old projects rally, will new projects rally,
how, how will that stuff play out?
And even though NF TS have been around for seven years, it kind
of feels like this is the first, this is like the first real
second, first, real second cycle, if that makes sense since
the last one because last NFT market cycle was like a actual
real market, very active with a lot of volume going through
compared to any time before that.
So it will remain to be seen how you know how stuff will will
play out. I know we have an arcade AirDrop
coming tomorrow for a bunch of different collections.
There was also this sinker style thing, which I think they're
doing an AirDrop. I saw people point at that, like
why us? And sappy seals move a little
bit, But what is that again? That's the is that the D5 thing?
That two point. OK, great.
Yeah, yeah, be careful on that one.
But yeah, there's an air drop there, which I think was driving
some of the interest and they knew you mentioned you jumped
ahead. What was going on in Autoglyphs?
So 10 Autoglyphs. Now Autoclyphs come in a set
set. I think only Lava Labs and maybe
Seed Phrase owns a full set, right.
And one of those sets sold yesterday, it looked like it was
brokered by who was it. There was like a brokerage that
went to backed by Fleming. Good.
I forget the name of the broker, but yeah, they moved 10 million,
sorry, 10 autoglyphs for 14 and a half million.
So what do you think of that as a deal?
Yeah, it's a punchy buy, but you know, we heard about there being
bids of higher than that a few years ago, three years ago for a
full set of autoglyphs. It's very hard to obtain a full
set. I think.
I think it was Nate Alex that put out a tweet.
Earlier today. Yesterday, which said, you know,
even back when Autoglyph first came out and we're probably
trading at a few $100, even back then it was, he said it was very
hard still to compile a full set.
So I think that shows you how important a full set of
autoglyphs is right now because if it was that difficult back
then when it when this thing first came, it's probably
basically impossible right now. And that's the that's just the
growing price for it. So yeah, I think see, I believe
see Face still has his and he has what they call the bear
Autoglyph. The one there's one that looks
like a bear, which I think is a bit more iconic than this one.
But yeah, I mean you know, this is, this is like a $50 million
NFT acquisition by mysterious buyer, so.
Is that the? Is that the ultimate NFT flex?
You think so? That's the bear glyph, isn't it?
Yeah, that's the bear glyph. Yeah, Yeah, it's it's definitely
one of them. Like as far as collections go, I
don't think there's anything that has a higher floor price
with regards to collection than autoglyphs do.
I know there's only 512 of them but you know this is the the the
the main feature about this is it's the first ever piece of
artwork that was on chain for Ethereum.
Like it's actually the data is actually stored on chain and
it's lava Labs is pretty iconic given the their history in the
space. So it's like a really early NFT
that I think has a lot of meaning that kind of arguably
maybe even kicked off some of this movement.
So yeah, it's definitely I think one of the biggest anti flexes
you can have out there and and it's really tough to own like if
you want to own I guess. You can just tell us about the
Cabal. Are you in like a autoglyph
chat? Is there?
Is there like a a chat where you would talk about autoglyphs if
there is? Please let me know because I'm
I'm not in. It now I.
Mean. I don't know.
Yeah, full cabal situation going on there.
I think that's the thing about Autoglyph.
It isn't like one of these things where there's a cabal or
an inside group. It's just like this piece of art
that some people own. I don't even really know that
many people that own it other than like the well known people.
So there isn't, there's no Autoglyphs community.
There's nothing like there's no there's none of that stuff.
It's just a fucking thing. But you can see why maybe some
traditional people want to actually own it and buy it, and
I wouldn't be surprised if this buyer had some kind of a
traditional background. Oh, for sure.
Who do we think it is? You think it's like one of these
hedge run guys that we've heard Bynes?
On the other No, it's not one of them.
I think I know who it is. Really.
Yeah. It would tell me in the DMS,
these, these look good though, right?
Don't they? I like these.
Every single one of them. I was like, yeah, these are
good. Yeah, these ones are really good
apart. Yeah.
Makes my one look really shit. Actually, I.
Was about to say. I looked at yours.
I was like, wow, like these look really good.
And then? I like the fact that mine
doesn't look good. It's like one of those things,
right? It's like, so shit is good.
So shit is good. Yeah, put it at Sotheby's.
So what is what is the floor price now?
I mean, so ten of these went for 15,000,000, so that was that 1.5
per glyph. Yeah.
Yeah, which is obviously higher than the floor.
Like what's the floor? What's the floor?
250 ETH right now. So that's like 750 grand.
Yeah. Wow.
And where did you buy it for again?
Where was it in the bear? I bought it for I bought mine
for 1:50 when ETH was like 1700 I think.
OK, so it's done about 3X since. Then like that, yeah.
OK, wow, I guess. Yeah, I guess.
Grails. Grails.
You meant to buy Grails in the Bear although you just don't
really know which ones they're they're going to be sometimes.
But yeah that's been a that's been a crazy crazy trade and I
think that was that was it kind of for for NFTS like I said a
bunch of middle tier stuff was was running and then in in terms
of the AirDrop stuff we've already kind of spoken about it
but the blast Big Bang announcement which is the
projects which I think they're going to like help fund right
that is now going to be ending on Friday.
Have you been looking I know you're deep inside this
ecosystem anything that you think is interesting.
Well, I what What are people focused on?
For blast. Yeah.
Like what are the what are the projects that that that because
it's going to be like a voting process, right?
There's a lot of projects. They had 3 / 3000 applications
into this thing and I think it's broken down by, yeah, there's
some meme coins, there's some social projects, there's
obviously the infrastructure stuff, deck stuff, etcetera.
So there's a lot. It's it's tough to judge which
things will be the things to buy because the obvious thing, you
know in your head, you're like, OK, I'm going to get, I'm going
to make sure I don't miss Blast. I'm going to go into the blast
because Rich and ETH over there and just buy everything in
blast. But then you realize it's
probably going to be like a ton of coins.
So I don't know, like, I think I'm only aware of like a handful
of meme coins that might be like one of the easier low IQ plays
where you just don't really have to think about the actual
product. And by law of numbers, you can
probably just buy like two or three of the early ones and and
make some money on that. But yeah, and it's tough to
really know what to look at because we haven't been able to
use mainnet yet. So you don't really know.
It's just kind of like you see all these projects and all these
projects and stuff and you know what's out there.
You know, you can kind of guess what there's going to be based
on what other chains have had, but without being able to use
things and, you know, test the UI and see what works and what
doesn't work is kind of unclear to know what to actually what to
actually buy. Yeah, I just didn't have anyone
done like a summary of at the top.
I know, I know bankers did, but I just didn't know if anyone was
had like shifted through them. I agree it's it's kind of a
crazy amount of different projects which are going for it.
But I guess the ones that get chosen, they could really go
wild, right? It does feel like this is going
to have a like a nice Ponzi element to it that we like
during a bull market. Yeah, yeah, I think so.
So yeah, look out for that on Friday, I think.
Do you know who's, who's voting? Are you part of the voting
committee? No, I wasn't.
Sadly, I wasn't invited. So I will not be part of the the
voting committee. It'll just be a bystander.
That really sucks. OK, cool.
So let's see. Yeah, well, guess we'll find out
on Friday. I don't think there's anything
else on air drops. I think we've covered FTS crypto
macro. So I think that's that's kind of
everything covered for today guys like we, I think Farrok is
going to be back to tomorrow. But yeah, we are we doing
anything with Robit today? Are we giving away any money
since? Nothing today, but we'll be
ripping. 20K ends tomorrow and Farrok comes back and and and
takes all the glory. So yeah no money from us either
today. I'm really sorry about that.
I hope you got some value from having our our conversation and
I guess we will speak to you tomorrow.
Cheers for tuning in.