Good morning, good morning everyone, GMGM and welcome to
another episode of BOMO. Our day is Monday, June 23rd
.25. Folks, it was a weekend where
something indeed did happen. Saturday night out of nowhere
Trump bombs Iran with B50 twos going after their nukes.
It in turn naked our crypto prices.
But we started rebounding last night and we are rebounding
swiftly here this morning and we are wondering once again, is the
bottom end or was the sell in May and go away crowd correct
again in 2025? We're going to break it all down
on today's show. Nofrook, he is off this week.
Mando should be joining us. It's his birthday.
We'll see if he pops in. But we got Logan on with us.
Logan GN, how you doing? Hey.
Good morning, Tyler doing well all things considered.
It is brutally hot here. NPA market of course not
following in kind, but very very hot.
Hopefully the market will will correspond.
We are on the tail end of the three day heat wave where it was
1995 every day and the folks who are not familiar with the
Chicago land, we generally don't get this hot.
That's about as hot as it is. It gets here and I'm even north
of the city, so it is a bit extreme.
I think it's 98 later today. Yeah, it's up there, Logie.
Just quick sports side game seven.
My my hometown Indianapolis Pacers, what fell short last
night? What were your reactions to the
game? Yeah, I, I was rooting for the
Thunder. I have a, a really, I don't
know, I really, really like Jalen Williams a lot.
So I, I was rooting for the Thunder.
But of course, as a sports fan in general, it's just really
heartbreaking. Like the whole game felt over.
Even though the Pacers hung in the game felt over when
Halliburton went down. So that was, that was
disappointing. But otherwise don't get.
Your boy Jalen Williams had a terrible first half.
Yeah, he didn't bring it back in the second.
Yeah, yeah, he's good. I just, I really, I like him as
a player a lot. No particular reason, but yeah.
My takes so quicks. I think it was in the Chicago
line. I watched the game with a few
friends at the DraftKings sports book outside Wrigley.
It's awesome. It was my first time being
there. It's a Vegas style sports book
so huge screens everywhere, full bar.
It was a great environment to watch the game.
So I highly recommend that if anyone is a sports fan in the
Chicagoland area. And I mean those first few
minutes Halbern looked like he hit 3 threes out of like maybe
4. It looked like they really came
to play and Oklahoma City really did not play that well across
the game. So I feel like if he stays
healthy, of course it's a big if.
I think the patients would have had a real shot.
But you're right. Basically as soon as he went
down their their odds were we're looking pretty tough, but it was
a fun season, fun NBA playoffs overall.
So we'll we'll see what next year looks like which
Halliburton a speedy recovery folks, we are talking about more
than the NBA Finals on today's show.
So what else are we talking about?
We're starting the market report.
What happened with the war latest over this weekend?
What does it mean for our crypto tokens?
How are markets looking here on Monday morning as we are opening
up the markets? What was the fastest horse?
We've got these all ETFs. Looks like they're coming soon
folks. Just a matter of when and not
if. Circle does not stop, it's up
more again today. We've got Anthony Papiano
launching a new $1 billion Bitcoin acquisition company that
had been somewhat telegraphed. We've got DFDB coming on chain
Reddit using them maybe using world IDNFT companies leaning
into Telegram sales correct big three day sell out and more.
Before we dive into a quick shout out to our partners first
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All right, well, with that, we'll get into the market
report. No Mando.
So I'll do my best Mando impression.
Let's let's hit the music for daily NFT and crypto analysis.
Tyler D on FOMO, our cause the kid can great to bash the
barriers. All right, folks, reminder, we
will be doing the screen share live and kick where we are now
streaming every day. So let's take a look at the
board. Bitcoin rallying here this
morning. 1024 up 1 1/2% from yesterday, still down 4% of the
week. ETH back over 23, up 5% on the
day. XRP up 3 percent, $2.03.
Solana up 6%. Fastest horse of the majors, but
still at only at 1:37. We take a look at broader
markets. So stocks are green.
Wow. I thought there would at least
be some kind of a sell out or sell off at least the first few
hours of the day, especially with how the crypto markets
reacted over the weekend. But no stocks indeed are green
and it looks like oil is red. Yeah.
So I think that was another perhaps surprise here.
Of course, the the news from over the weekend is on Saturday
night. I was out and about and saw the
messages on Twitter that the B50 twos from the US Trump and sent
them, they sent the the the bunker Buster missiles down at
40 nuclear facility trying to effectively wipe out.
That caught folks off guard to to say the least.
Trump went and addressed the nation effectively after the the
stealth mission had been completed.
Saw reactions from Iran in the last 36 hours or so.
I think the big threat from them was they were going to they
voted to approve closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is where
at 20% of the world's oil supply filters through.
Though it looks like Poly market betters are saying that there's
more more bark than bite on that one only has it at a 23% chance
of actually happening. I think there's been a lot of
folks looking for other global reactions from players like
Russia, China. I don't know that we've seen a
whole lot of escalated rhetoric at at least just yet.
So I think that is still a factor that folks are looking at
here this week. What kind of escalations will
take place? US has put troops globally on
higher alert expecting some kind of retaliation from Iran here as
Israel, Iran, war has continued. Both are still sending missiles
at each other. As for the White House that the
message out of Trump this morning has been oil focused.
He's telling the Department of Energy to drill and I mean now.
So he is going after the the oil folks there.
Logie, I guess first question for you.
Were you surprised? Did this catch you off guard on
Saturday? Any other reactions to the
global conflict here? Yeah, not, not necessarily.
What like I should first just provide a small disclaimer.
I'm a little out of my depths here just from a almost a
purposeful ignorance of not trying to pay super, super close
attention to all the detention headlines from time to time.
But nothing really surprises me here.
I always feel like, or at least I have felt like for the last
few months, as you know, things here, tariffs as well, right?
The headlines are all seemingly always a little bit, I think you
use the term more bark than bite, right?
So that's how I felt a little bit here, of course, and we took
a pretty, you know, real action. So you can't really call that
probably bark. But As for what, you know,
transpires in the next few days, months, I'm hoping it's easing,
you know, I hope it is more of the the bark than the bite.
And we could sort of refocus on, yeah, whether it's, you know,
finding peace, it's finding whatever the, the actual outcome
is for all parties that's in best interest for all involved.
I'm hoping we, we move towards that in some way or another.
And, and things don't escalate further because I think the
escalation, the unfortunate part of the escalation is just the
increased volatility. Nobody really knows what's going
to happen. I kind of like being bored in
the summer and just, you know, I'm OK with Bitcoin chilling at
103,000, you know, and not worrying about the volatility.
Yeah, this was the opposite of being bored.
A lot indeed has been happening. I think part of the confusion
perhaps from the just like the broader base is what did this
mean for the US? Is the US entering the war?
I've seen that rhetoric. My read is it was kind of an
interim exit already and that this was the sole effort that
they had planned and there really isn't anything else.
We of course will see if that continues, but the odds of AUS
invasion in Iran only at 16%. So markets are pricing that here
still pretty low odds of AUS Iran nuclear deal still at 36%
in 2025. What else is interesting, I
think the the biggest next focus is on regime change.
Markets are pricing in Iranian regime fall in 2025 only at 30%
chance though committee out as supreme leader at 56%.
So that has been moving up a a a fair amount.
It has been interesting, I think more than more so than than
previous years to follow the war live on prediction markets,
right? We have various markets.
We can see exactly how how folks are are are betting on outcomes.
Have you, not to put it on the spot, Tyler, but have you
participated, participated with any?
Because to me, there's like a, there's like a small moral
dilemma about, you know, actually putting a wager behind
something here and rooting for it in some way.
It's just a little, it's a little weird, but you're right.
I mean, this is where this is where we're at now.
Pop culture, politics, everything in the world is real
time on chain. It's yeah.
It's just the state of where we're at.
I'm not the morality police. I'm I'm done playing that game.
But these markets are not really for me.
I'm not really super interested in in betting on war outcomes at
this point. Also just don't feel like I have
any kind of an edge. So like I wouldn't, of course.
It's like I came on the show last week and I was kind of
pointing to the like the, the Taco trade, the, the, the Trump,
Trump always chickens out. And my, my gut read last week
was that the longer this was going to be stretched out, the
less likely the US was to take any action.
And then Saturday night we got the surprise.
So it does look like perhaps Trump telegraphed the move and
he kind of walked it back to make it look a little more
uncertain. I guess it's kind of my read on
things tying us back to to the crypto market.
I mean it, it really impacted majors over the weekend.
So I mean, a week ago on Monday, bitcoins 1O81-O8K kind of sold
off across the week as as the war escalated.
But then what was it? Yes, Sunday we went as low as
90. Yeah, 9898 five on Bitcoin ETH.
How low did ETH go? I went into the 21 hundreds.
I don't know if it actually went below 2100.
Yeah, it looks like yeah right around 2133 or so pretty brutal
sell offs across the board and of course we're rebounding
swiftly. Bitcoin back at one O 2 two
right now, so already up 3 1/2% off the bottom.
Were you surprised at the the sell off or is it just kind of
par for the course? Yeah.
I think it's a little bit par for the course, right?
Like we have not bucked the trend of, I don't know, like
what so gold went higher, I think, right, like we we still
haven't bucked that trend of it is the, you know, the reserve
asset is the like, I don't know, I'm struggling to find the right
word for a Tyler. But you know, it's just not
moving in line with some of the narratives that have been driven
around Bitcoin for a really long time, right?
It doesn't ever seemingly do that.
So this does not surprise me. All that to say, this does not
surprise me in any way, not like fearful though, in any in any
way on my side. Like I said, I'm kind of OK with
the chop. I'm I'm not like act super
active in anything right now, but I continue to buy Bitcoin
and just kind of feel OK about it.
So you know, you get these smaller dips or more severe
dips. You know, this was a pretty, I
don't know, not super, super severe in terms of crypto
volatility, but we went from one O 5 when I was writing on
Friday, like around one O 5 to 98 in like a day and a half.
That's that's pretty notable. So yeah, I just kind of feel OK
adding to the stack there, our cost averaging.
I guess I forgot that we were at One O 6 on on Friday.
Yeah, Myriad. Myriad has a prediction market
up that I wrote about in my Myriad Moves piece that was, you
know, is it Bitcoin 115 or 95 first?
And it was kind of like right in the middle.
It was that it was at one O 5 when I was writing about it on
Friday morning, of course, but now it's this still becomes an
interesting market here, right, because we didn't we didn't get
through there. I don't know where the support
lines are anything like that. But you know, we we didn't
breach quite that low. And you know, if, if tensions
are easing and there isn't any weird, you know, new headline, I
could very much see 115 being in play before 95.
I don't know where. The hell does that firmly at
1:15? But I mean, we hit 98.
So now like the 95 K side objectively has to be favored,
especially if you look at this one month chart right now.
I was talking to a good friend on the way down to the sports
book last night and it's sharp guy, but not deep in in crypto.
He's in other sectors. And I was telling him about how
Bitcoin and crypto majors had sold off after the the US bomb.
And he said by point blank, I, I couldn't string together 2
sentences for why Bitcoin would sell off in that situation.
And I'm not really sure I can't either, right?
Because like in theory, a gold would move up on on that on on a
headline like that. And it did, right?
And then even if you have the argument that it's trading more
like levered tech stocks, stocks are green.
So, So what is it that that that derives these actions that that
makes everyone so shaky with Middle Eastern conflicts when it
comes to Bitcoin? And I don't have my, my finger
on the pulse of it. Is it because so much is held in
the Middle East? Is it is it Middle East whores
selling us off Like I? I am very curious for someone
smarter than me to help answer that question because I don't
have the answer to. That well, I, I'm not the guy
either because I don't have a great answer for it, as you
noted, like I, I couldn't come up with a super coherent reason
as to why, because for so long we've been telling ourselves
that it shouldn't do that, right?
Like it should do the exact opposite of what it did.
That's one of the big narratives here is that it's going to it's,
you know, supposed to be kind of this digital gold, right And and
others, you know, people smarter than I am, people that are
trying to predict the price, people like Ark and best
etcetera. Like they're using that as the
rationale for bullish price predictions like the digital
gold narrative. Yet, you know, in these in these
moments in which it very much could stand out as a digital
gold, that doesn't really ever seem to.
To be clear, I still believe in that narrative on a long term
time horizon, edge store value, I firmly believe it.
But it is on a near term time horizon.
It is still surprising every time we get these these dips and
it certainly caught me off guard because I was actually DCA in
some Bitcoin last week in that one O 3 to one O 5 level.
I liked that entry and still, I mean, it's just down a couple
percent from here. But didn't see, I really thought
102-5103 five was going to hold. It looked like we were having
higher lows there for a bit, but we lost it.
Did you see the just the absolute mayhem across alts and
memes? So Seoul went down to like 130
fartcoin. How low did fartcoin get?
Let's see, let's go down the list.
So Fartcoin's at $0.92 right now.
I want to say it went down to like below 80.
It looks like it tapped $0.80 twice, maybe went into the 70s
briefly. Hyper Hyper Liquid, the hype
token went all the way down. It whipped to 30 basically and
now rebound pretty swiftly. It's already back to to 36.
So it's been carnage. Did you make any trades in any
reactions to some of these other albums?
Again, not surprised. Like if bitcoins are going to
swing down as violently as it did, you know, not shocked at
all that far coin and hyper are kind of falling in line with it
or, you know, even underperforming it.
I did not make any active trades, though.
I do have a small DCA on for far coin right now.
So I'm adding to that bag. It's a very, very small bag.
And I've talked about it on here before, like kicking myself.
I can remember the show in Peru I did when I was at like 200
million. And then we did a show like a
week later and it was at 500 million.
At the entire time. I've said I should own more far
coins and I'm, I'm trying to take advantage of it and
actually, you know, make that happen.
Should things eventually go up. I feel confident Far Coin might
be one that goes up with it. Yeah, I'm still a very strong
far coin bull long term time horizon.
I will say objectively this this chart makes me think perhaps
we're going to get one more leg lower after after recovery
rally. That's just my gut read looking
at this the other chart, the man look at this hype chart like
this looks pretty damn good. I gotta say, like anyone who's
got hit on that Dick. I saw the the Clemente video I I
was not actively paying attention to like you know, day
hour to hour things over the weekend, but it was shared in a
chat and very funny about the whole hype shenanigans and his
involvement there. Indeed, so Fear and greed at 37
pretty wild move, especially with with Bitcoin in one O 2 and
I'll ask this question and then we'll move on to some more of
the news or the sell in May and go away crowd right?
Were they correct? What was the price when we
entered May? I don't actually even remember.
Let's take a look. I shared the meme coin chart on
Twitter this morning. It, it definitely peaked in May,
I'll say May 28th, 27th, we are at one O 99, it's basically 110.
Then May 29th one O 8 seven and it kind of sold off the next.
Few days, depending on where in May you sold.
Yeah, you were probably right. Yeah.
OK. So, yeah, yeah, they're, I mean,
they're probably right. I don't expect, I don't know.
I mean, there's this whole like this presidency, this
administration, all the regulation stuff.
There's so many potential catalysts.
It feels like that could come at a moment's notice.
But at the same time, there's so many things that he could just
send out on true social that, you know, it's, it's crazy.
It's wild. I mean, I guess if, if you're
like trading on volatility, this is like probably a dream
scenario. But if you're somebody like me
that isn't actively trading this stuff and kind of just wants
price to go up, you know, that's probably a lot of people.
If you just want price to go up and you know, maybe in a
consistent and gradual manner taking the stairs up, it doesn't
feel so great that every day, but.
I think people want to sell them and go away because they they
just want to relax this summer and and do other things and
touch grass and not have to monitor this and there's just
been total onslaught, 24/7 media and a new announcements and all
this and it happened a lot. I'm going to stick to my guns
and still think we have a fun summer.
Joyful June is looking less joyful folks, I have to admit
that. And I'm not 100% sure that we
are going to in the next 7 days totally recaptured the the joy
that June started with. But I'm still optimistic for
July and August. A couple of catalysts on the the
near term time horizon for one, if if this conflict ends and and
Udi, who has been pretty spot on for this conflict that tempered
Wizards founder Bitcoin OG and I think it's come out that he was
in the IDF, the Israel army previously in his life.
He's been doing a lot of analysis on this war.
He basically his take is it's going to be over in 12 days.
I know he has also said global peace in 24 months.
So he thinks there's going to be continued conflicts off and on
across the next two years. I don't think that's a huge
surprise to anyone. I don't think World Peace in 12
days by any means, but if this conflict is over in 12 days,
that's a potential catalyst for the summer.
We also had the 90 day pause on those tariffs is coming to ahead
here soon as well. So whatever the Trump
administration decision is there, if it's going to be
another 90 day delay, that could be a temporary, a temporary
catalyst as well. And then the the headlines that
we're getting on a day-to-day basis, more and more of these
companies spinning up to buy our our beloved magic Internet
token. So today Anthony Pompiano $1
billion merger to create pro cap financial a new Bitcoin he's
calling it native financial services company.
It's effectively a a Bitcoin acquisition vehicle.
They are going to buy up to $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.
They've already raised 750 million massive raise.
The ticker's going to be CCCM and they went on to say that
they will also be developing products and services to produce
revenue and profit from the Bitcoin on their balance sheet
over time. So we've been talking about this
new trend for for months now. I think nothing new.
We had the DFTV team come on the show last week.
I do think this last paragraph is the most interesting.
I've also seen people it raise concerns with folks.
But I mean, the whole reason to buy one of these companies
versus the underlying asset is if you believe in their
financial engineering effectively, if you think they
will be able to to outperform the underlying asset via some
innovation. So curious for your thoughts,
are are you racing out to buy CCCN?
We're just brought our thoughts on this trend.
Yeah, I'm not racing out to buy really any of them at this point
in time. But actually you know the
conversation you had with DFTV and Dan Kang, investor
relations, I wrote an article about it after re watching the
show and I've been following and reporting on DFTV pretty
closely, which I know of course is not a Bitcoin Treasury
vehicle. But it was actually it was
really eye opening for me because I think I had been in
the camp Tyler and we thought of about this before that like it,
this was a worrying trend to me. You know, it it felt like a lot
of people, you know, kind of packaging up shit.
You know, of course I don't want to call Bitcoin that because I'm
a holder and believe in it. But like just packaging up all
these, you know, little financial loophole, you weird
debt construction things to be able to acquire Bitcoin.
And it was just stacking up and eventually a bubble would burst
and it'd be really bad for everybody involved.
And I think that's a pretty commonly held view at this point
in time. They're much smarter people who
can of course, articulate why it's so bad, much better than I
can. But I got to listen to Dan on
that show. And the one thing that it did
for me was it it opened my eyes. It like some of some of the
organizations doing this are doing it very intelligently and
have like a very clear plan and the way that they're going about
things, you know, to acquire Solana and to be the vehicle
that is doing it most efficiently and more efficiently
than you and I can do it trading meme coins and other garbage
tactics right on chain. That that makes sense to me.
And it didn't feel, you know, maybe it's just a, a fantastic
part of investor relation and and communication strategy, but
it didn't feel scammy at all in any way.
And and that was actually that that felt really good to me to
hear that got me pulled up on them a little bit as well.
So I'm, I'm not writing off any of these companies maybe at face
value as I was before that. That's all I can really say.
I, I would need to dig in. But I do think they need to do
more than just accumulate. Like Dan was saying, like
MicroStrategy has done this thing.
They're the behemoth linebacker. It's tough to do that thing now.
You got to be a little more creative.
You got to be a little bit better at at accumulating in a
way that is not just stacking on debt basically and that does
have me a little more interested in actually feeling a little bit
better overall about the trend than I was last week.
Yeah. I think the consensus is that
this new trend is the most likely to cause the next bear
market that we're going to see some of these treasury companies
go bust, become for sellers. I'm not sure that I'm going to
take the other side of that. I do think that's like a broad
blanket statement and I think we will certainly see some have
pockets of success. I don't know if that's anything
Pompeiano or not. I do think betting on what you
think is the leading horse perhaps in each of the tokens is
an interesting strategy. So if you think that's micro
strategy for Bitcoin, if you think that's Joe Lubin and S bet
for ETH, if you think it's DFTV for Solana, perhaps pick one of
the hype companies that just came out.
I do think that's an interesting way to perhaps build a basket.
If you want to be in that camp of folks who are pivoting from
buying alts to buying stocks, which I'm seeing more and more
folks call for on the timeline. I think that is one way to think
about it. I don't know Anthony Pompeano
super well. I've been casually following him
since I got deeper into crypto Twitter.
I mean, he was, he was a I would have classified him as ACT voice
in 2021. Like he was talking about
Bitcoin price action. He was an early 1.
I don't think he's necessarily is associated now with it.
But I'm the guy even like him or hate him, he's got 1.7 million
followers. He's he's built a pretty
successful brand. So I do think he is likely an
intelligent person. Now I don't know if that
translates to being able to, to operate an innovative Bitcoin
acquisition vehicle. So we will, we will certainly
see, but doubtful that he is going to be the the, the last
one to do this. I think that much is clear.
But and the stock biz, the crypto stock biz is a good one.
That is a fact 278 for Circle stock.
It was at 260 before I clicked refresh.
It was at 2:40 on Friday, up 20%.
It is now up another 15%. I joked about this yesterday
that rest assured, whatever is going to happen to your beloved
alternative cryptocurrency Circle stock is going to be up
another 10 to 15%. Yes, it is.
Tap the sign once again. Like this thing is just
unstoppable. Arguably that the biggest
fumble, one of the biggest fumbles of my professional
trading career is actively following this IPO and just
totally sitting on my hands and actually flooding it.
Not even just saying being sidelined, but but taking the
opposite side and shorts are being blown out.
I think trying to be a short on this token is just, I don't
know, use your your brain power elsewhere is my take on on this.
Like let's this is a respect the pump pump if I've ever seen one.
So like, let's let's play this out again for folks who have
maybe not been following this trade IPO at 31, but I think it
was it was viable. What, like 70 to 80, maybe 80 to
$100 range. Those first couple days
basically kind of grind it up. It did have like a week of
consolidation. And then I guess really since
the Genius Act passed, that's really where things ramped up.
So on June 13th, 10 days ago, it opened at one O 8, went to 1:30,
then it was one 50s, and then man, it's up another almost 100%
in the past week. Just absolutely wild price
action now at 67 billion market cap.
I'm pretty sure that's what Coinbase stock was at just a few
days ago. So Coinbase is up as well.
So it's it's up. It's also following circle, I
think post genius act Coinbase stock might be another one
that's been benefiting. It's been outperforming crypto
majors itself. It's hanging out at 78 billion,
but they're basically 1:00 to 1:00 at this point.
Curious if you have any reactions to Circle and or if
you had to pick one of these two.
Geez. Who would you pick?
Man, it's kind of weird to not pick Coinbase given just like
the connection there, you know, it feels like in terms of
optionality, Coinbase should have a leg up.
But I, I don't know, I, I, I don't know that I can, can draw
a strong case to either as to like why one would go up over
the other from here on out as far as this whole saga goes.
I, I don't, I'm kind of speechless as well because there
was right. Remember, like as you, as you
noted around the IPO talks like 31, we then we heard it was
oversubscribed, but then you're like, OK, oversubscribed.
Sure, maybe it 2 XS and then it 3X in like minutes on it halted
like 9 times on its opening trading day.
But then you're right, you have like a a week to buy it from
around $100. There might have been a one dip
day, maybe 2 dip days in there like small dips.
I don't know what to say, man. At at a certain point it does
feel like, you know, I've been just kind of following along
casually in some chats where people are talking about when to
short circle. It does feel like at some point
in time, like, OK, it can't keep going up, right?
But it's a danger. It's a dangerous game.
You know, we're kind of bringing the the trenches on chain here,
quite literally. And sometimes I can't.
Answer that question can't continue way up, so Scott Beson
called for stablecoins to 3.7 trillion by the end of the
decade. Is Circle at 3.7 trillion yet?
Well, the other thing here, maybe this is a segue as well as
like Circle is not the only stable coin company people.
What do they are? Well, I mean, you have Tether
and then of course you have like things like PayPal have their
own stable coin, right? But then I guess the secondary
piece of this is like other companies, JP Morgan, etcetera,
whatever, they're going to do their own stable coins.
So 3.7 trillion, OK, Besant, is Circle going to be the only
proxy for all $3.7 trillion worth of value that trades on
the public market? If so, then of course, you know,
it feels like Circle's going a whole lot higher.
But you know, this is this is one of those things we've talked
about this before, like a Coinbase versus just owning your
bank and would you custody here or there, whatever.
Like where's the Moat? Where's the Moat for Circle?
If regulation gets passed and people can generate their own
stable coins, and your banks all have their own stable coins.
Yeah, and this is the all of the things I was saying as I was a
bear wearing my circle bear hat and now I'm just throwing it
mistakes out. Everything is just everything.
I said it was just a tongue in cheek play.
But like I said it for a reason like no one is viewing Visa as a
bet on stable coins. No one is is viewing JP Morgan's
stock as a bet on stable coins. You can't bet on Tether right
now. No one's viewing coin bases on
stable coins. No, I get you.
This is it. I get you and I have I have no
ill will towards circle or like anything weird.
I I use USDC as my stable coin of choice when I'm like, you
know, when I'm stabling or, you know, doing things on chain.
So, but I don't know, I mean, can it just really keep going up
like you imagine that these other stable coin companies or
even those who are adjacent would be looking at this and be
like, oh shit, like this is an opportunity.
Yeah, a couple takeaways here. So one, I think I saw a comment
that Circle is stealing the ETF bid.
That's an interesting take and it does look to be accurate.
I I want to make sure this data is correct, but if this is
correct, is this right? The Bitcoin ETS had no flows on
Thursday. Oh, that was it was closed.
That was good, yeah. So it was closed Thursday only
6,000,000 on Friday. I mean, this is actually a
pretty decent inflow streak for Bitcoin.
So actually not not a whole lot of takeaways there.
Ethereum did definitely slow down after what was a a very
nice run up there into joyful June.
This is this is when the ETH bulls were were very joyful, did
half a billion in inflows in in a handful of days there as June
started ramping up runs to 2875 and then just smacked all the
way back down. And now the bids already gone
back to 0 on the ETFs. So that is going to be another
interesting one to to follow here.
And yeah, I had another direction where I was going to
go with that since lost. But the other aspect of the ETFs
is what's new ones are coming down the Pike.
So Eric Bakunis, ETF expert, shared the odds on Friday.
And it looks like they're saying, yeah, 90 to 95%
basically across the board for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin,
Cardano, Polka dot H Bar and Avalanche by the end of 2025 S
massive favourites to get all of these ETFs.
There's too many ETFs. I think it's Part 2.
Like which of these do you think is the most interesting or will
be like the most the biggest beneficiary of having an ETF
product? Can you have too many ETFs?
I think it's just law of diminishing returns after a
point, right? Like, yeah, basically this is
signal that there will be an ETF for everything ever.
There will be a product that you can, you know, buy this stuff on
change. Sorry, not on chain, but well,
yeah, potentially. But you know, via the exchange
traded fund option, you'll be able to buy it in your
traditional markets and equities, whatever.
I don't think it matters as much moving forward.
You know, every single one to me is like a little bit less of a
big deal. Now with that being said,
because these would be like the first alt ish ones, right?
You know, whether you consider ethanol or not, like these might
matter a little bit. The ones that I think it matters
most for would be Solana, Ripple and maybe even Dogecoin.
I don't think it matters too much for Cardano or Polka dot or
H bar. And that's not to take anything
away from those ecosystems or whatever's happening there.
Like Avalanche and Suey are interesting to me as well, just
because you know, my proximity to on chain activity.
Those are places where things appear to be happening and there
appear to be some interest. And I see the ETFs and the
approval of them as, you know, just another catalyst, right,
for potential movement up and for potential legitimization as
well, which gets is a murky word to use here alongside like
Dogecoin Cardona, like Dogecoin is literally a meme coin, you
know what I mean? Like it's got its own ETF.
So it's weird to say that it's legitimized in via the ETF
approval. But in a way I mean it is so.
Yeah, I actually think that's where I was going to go.
I think the Dogecoin ETF is the most interesting on this list.
And if that catches a bid, it could be a potential catalyst
for a next leg up of a meme cycle.
And then now like the big thing for any meme is when's the
Binance listing? When's the Coinbase listing?
If those COIN ETF is successful, then when's when's the ETF
listing? You get another carrot.
Yeah, well, actually those effects have sort of worn off a
little bit, right? Like that was like a thing for a
while, but it's the same thing. As you add more tokens, as
there's more options in places to trade, the, you know, in that
economy is becomes more robust. The effect on the listings
becomes limited. That's where I, yeah, I do think
you could see it in the early going here.
You really definitely could see an ETF listing bump.
But agree and disagree. So I think where I think the
ETFs can be impactful is this new wave of financial managers
are just starting to dip their toe into crypto investing and
are starting to do 1 to 2% of client portfolios and they're
probably starting with Bitcoin. If they're going to diversify,
they're probably going to diversify into ETH.
But I can absolutely see a, a, a percentage of them starting to
diversify across a broader basket of all of these.
And I still am in the camp that we are at the very, we are at
the first inning of financial managers investing into crypto
via ETFs. I do think that will continue
for years and decades. So that's where you can start
to, to get that infinite swap. I think the infinite swap of
course is going to be much smaller into a Dogecoin ETF than
it is into Bitcoin, but it it will be greater than 0 most
likely. So that is perhaps the, the bold
case for this. But of course, the more you
have, if you've got hundreds of these, the the the trickier it
gets. All right folks, looks like we
might have the the birthday boy on live with us.
Hi, guys. How are you?
Yeah. Hi about.
Sorry about being mate, I'm great.
How are you guys? Just you 2.
Yeah, just us 2 folks out this week.
So we've just been here with our jaws on the floor looking at the
circle stock chart and just trying to to wrap wrap our heads
around it. But that and our our beloved
Internet coins are starting to to recover a a bit on on the
market open. Curious if you have any high
level takes or I think the, the biggest thing that was
surprising to me and, and Logan and I chatted through it was
that stocks didn't even open red lock.
There was no stock dip. They just flat open green coming
after the the big sell off we had.
And just trying to wrap our heads around the question like
why does Bitcoin and alts, why do they respond so negatively to
these conflicts versus gold versus stocks?
Because make a ton of sense on paper, but curious if you have
any broad reactions. Yeah, I think that the I think
it probably speaks to the buyer base at different time time
zones. So I think when try to find
markets are open, they think of Bitcoin as digital gold.
And when the weekends just open, we'll think that we're trading
the NASDAQ. And and so as soon as we open,
suddenly you have a bunch of people who are like, well, the
obvious thing to buy here is gold and digital gold.
So Bitcoin always rallies and we freak out about it.
Like I think, I think we think that like a really bad situation
is, is still bad for Bitcoin and that's not what the, the the
weekday buyer base thinks. So, so you get this rally.
It doesn't necessarily always lead over to alts like alts just
kind of like bounce because bitcoins bounce necessarily.
But but yeah, I think, I think that's basically what I, what I
see happening at the moment. And I, I, I mean, let's be
honest, like, why was this so bad for, for crypto in any sort
of way? Like it doesn't really make
sense that it fundamentally should have meant anything.
I think we said that at least I remember saying that on the
weekend on Friday, at least, like if we saw, I didn't think
that anything that would take us below 100K.
We did briefly go up below 100K, to be fair.
And I didn't think there was anything for Ethyl hype, which
are, which are the things I was looking to buy that would really
take us materially lower. Like we did have a a different
majority of those. But I, I, I had those have that
ladder of buying hype all the way down to 30, which which
really nicely actually. And then if to say if buys
haven't really bounced as much, but the but I just kind of felt
like this was a US freaking out over very, very little.
I continue to think the trade here is to like own Bitcoin high
E and are they and to short all the, the rest of the crap which
which which is like all the high FTV altcoins which are not
really moving anywhere. And that that trade for me
continues to do pretty well. Let me put it that way.
And I'm growing it because I just feel like that's the trade.
I'm glad I got back into hype basically on this because I
remember I told my hype at 303839 and now I'm back in I
think 32.3 average. And if it goes that low, I think
I'll buy some more. And then if any of these other
alts rally aggressively, I think they're they're probably not in
a great spot. Like I'm not that bullish on
altcoin season still happening. Doesn't look great out there.
Seoul's at 1:35. I mean that that feels it's kind
of shockingly low for just where the the state of things.
All's a different one. Seoul is a difficult one to
judge in my opinion, because I do still think that Seoul is is
up isn't going anywhere. But there's some of these other
ones which I think I think you could you're in for a period
here where Bitcoin could very easily stay in 100 to 110 KM
range now range now for a while. I reckon.
I don't know if we're going back to all time highs that quickly
now after all of that that caused I think quite a bit of
pain and we'll see how it shakes out.
I don't think the, the, the stuff over the weekend, the
stuff over the weekend was literally the most bearish kind
of thing that could have happened, right?
You had a strike on, on the nuclear facilities followed by
talk of closing the straight of Hormuz.
Bitcoin didn't even go below, but hasn't really stayed 100K.
So, but I, I also think that we're now in this sort of chop,
chop range, which I think will persist.
Do you think the conflict ending breaks us out of the chop or is
this going to be just we'll find more reasons and now it's
probably going to be summer chop until Q3Q4 new catalyst emerges.
Yeah, I think it's more likely, more likely room for a bit of a
chop here. Like globally liquidate
liquidity is going high and I still like Eve and I still like
hype. I still like Bitcoin, but I, I'm
not, I can't tell you when we're going to come out of this now.
It felt like we've had a couple of shots at breaking out and we
just hit a hot on Bitcoin. We did just hit a lower high and
a lower low. That's not something that you
just immediately break out of. So I I think that that points
more to chop more than anything. The cell may go away.
Crowd feels stronger by the day. Enjoy your summer.
Raoul Paul, he he's he's doing his part to to remind us of of
the global M2 liquidity chart. He he shared it again yesterday,
though we did, we finally kind of sunk below, which really
hadn't happened in a few months. But of course, showing that
we're we're not just going to follow this perfectly to the the
T this this chart, I think was the primary opium for joyful
June for a a a summer pomp beyond anything else.
But I think what's notable and what you said, and I'm seeing it
too, is like the difference in the 8 to 5, like the market when
the markets are open, the bid on Bitcoin and some of the other
majors versus like the after hours versus the closing.
It does feel like it's two different markets now and like
the institutions just kind of show up and buy most days and
then on the weekends it's like, I don't know if it's crypto
whales unloading clips, you know, when when they feel like
they're amidst volatility and global conflict or what.
But I think that was a decent explanation of, you know, what
we're what we can see, So we'll continue to follow it.
I did think it was notable when Kobe over the weekend was asking
what non Angel crypto related investments to make on a five
year time horizon. I'll try to find the tweet.
I think you responded with crypto Punk as your answer.
Yeah. I just think that if I was to
earn one thing over the next five years, it's tough to argue
against that. I think.
I think you have to think about something that has very has a
really strong Moat if you're talking about over five years,
right, Like a really strong Moat that you can be there for a
while. And I think crypto punk has got
that really strong Moat. I don't know if it has it
performs as well as the other things that he mentioned, but I
do think it's it's a pretty good guess that and like X copy
editions, I would say are a pretty good guess about stuff
that could last for a long time. The the, the other ones that
were kind of mentioned, which I thought was interesting with
some of the, some of the privacy chains, which people point to
coming back a bit like Monero and we've invested in Taree,
which is another one coming out. But I just think that that's an
interesting narrative that people are pointing to coming
back. And I know Anson mentioned world
coin. I think there's been a softening
of approach to, to that in general just in recent years, I
think recent months just in the idea that it's kind of unique.
I don't know if it's it's unique enough, let me put it that way,
but I do think it's it's pretty interesting to to see that that
has something come back. I honestly don't know if there's
much there's like a huge amount much else.
I think you could you could say something like Tron as a play on
just like the other half of crypto, like the sanctions half,
like continuing to see very decent volume and Tron
dominates. I think a lot of that activity,
whether you take turn a blind eye to it or not, like Tron, the
majority of trans activity comes from stable coins from
sanctioned then countries basically.
And I felt like that that's an interesting one over multiple
years, like it's got a good Moat there now.
And, and Justin Sun has managed to position himself as
untouchable, almost like it's very strange.
But but at least the next four years, I feel like he's not,
he's kind of untouchable. And then that's, that's honestly
kind of it. Like you may pick something like
like a tier 1D file, like an avenue, I think, which has like,
but but I I don't sit there and go like there's a lot of lot
else there, which is very, very unique and tough to tough to
touch basically. Yeah, I agree the the five year
bet makes this so hard and and part of it is like if folks
aren't familiar with what a lot of these all coin charts look
like on five years like they can be very brutal.
So if you picked the wrong 1 like you are, you can lose quite
a bit. DC inventor kind of summarize a
lot of them. I think what he's he has S bet
in there, which I think he's probably the only one
effectively the MicroStrategy of ETH, which we talked about on
Friday. Interesting.
I I still haven't made a move on that top tier generative art is
very difficult because I feel like for most people it's like,
OK, what do you buy? Buy Squiggle, I guess is like
the index or if a Denza, I suppose I think that's a little
trickier of a play. Crypto punks and X copy would be
at the top of my NFT list 100%. And then maybe Sam Spratt is in
there as well, even though I think the same spread is
probably a riskier bet. The next copy.
I think objectively, just because he's he's still a bit
newer. I don't know if I throw a they,
I'm not throwing a they in there with S bet.
I think 1/8 bet is probably enough for me.
I think world coin is interesting, though.
It's still like part of the the early flood on world coin was
the low fly, low float, high FTV, right?
Are we just looking past that because of the dominance of open
AI in Sam Altman at this point in time?
I mean this is. I think, I think that's partly
it, yeah. I don't know, man.
I don't know. I think it's, yeah, it's it's a
tricky 1. I I wouldn't have picked that.
Basically, it's not cheap. Lou, any reactions to that
question anywhere where you would have any direction where
you would have headed? No, I think what's been
discussed here is, is pretty close.
I like the addition of the D5, whether that's Ave. or like if
you have an affinity for Solana, like maybe that is Camino or you
know, Gito or something like that.
If you really think those are sorry, Solana as an ecosystem is
like up only from here on out. I I do like the addition of AD 5
protocol or some connection to AD 5 token World coin is still
interesting to me. I don't think it would have been
like it wouldn't have made like my list of like first two or
three things off the top of my head.
And Mando mentioned. I mean, it may not be as unique
as we perceive it to be, but it's like the very clear
narrative winner here, right? As far as like proof of humanity
AI type thing goes. And I think that trend is only
going to continue to grow like the, the wanting to be able to
differentiate between which people have been championing
about blockchain for a long time, right?
It's not like World Coin's unique in that aspect, but the
championing of like, hey, we want to be able to ensure
authenticity, humanity, etcetera.
I think it has a pretty big stranglehold on that.
And so if that does truly, truly grow like I, I don't know where
else I would be placing my bets aside from World Coin.
Yeah, and we saw this quick. On that note, we saw the
headline this weekend. Reddit is considering using
World Coin in their ORB system to verify users.
I do think user verification will something.
I think we're both bullish on Logan.
We were chatting about it. That is a trend that will only
continue. We like X right now.
The state of Twitter in reply agents is absolutely brutal.
I think it's ruining the app for for a lot of folks.
So like some kind of a human verification system I think will
largely be welcomed and will be more and more important.
I think folks push back on the anonymity aspect of this.
I was looking into it. So what they say they do if you,
if you take them at their word is that they scan your your
retina, they do some a decryption hashing it behind the
scenes and then they delete it. So they they effectively do a
one time verification and then they remove your, your user
data. So I actually think it is fairly
anonymous and interesting way to potentially do it.
We'll see if it catches on. I feel like this is 1 from a
training perspective where you can be bullish on the products,
but not on the token, right? And I mean, this thing's still
60% to unlock and it looks like a chart that has ongoing
unlocks, at least to me. So not the not the best.
Well, folks, we're almost at the hour mark.
One big story we didn't have a chance to dig into it is the
telegrams. These telegram sticker sales now
nearly $10 million. So, Logan, we might have to put
a, a pin in this one. Talk about it more at length on
tomorrow's show, 'cause I want to know like what the what, what
is going on here 'cause I see pudgy Penguins with $2,000,000
in sales. And that's actually pretty
interesting to me. So I am curious.
So we'll we'll try to dig into that more on tomorrow's show.
And then shout out to OSF and the the wrecked homies selling
out 711 three days in a row. Not an easy thing to do.
So Congrats to him. Hopefully gets up to to rest a
bit coming after it. Well, I'm sure was a whirlwind
weekend and then he'll get he'll get back to work.
I'm I'm sure. So I would love to get back on
the show. I know he's he's super busy
these days, but I want to hear about these 711 parties because
they they looked like they were pretty fun and of course they
were very successful. As for that, I think that's
going to be it for today's show. I want to thank our listeners as
always, want to thank my Co host Mandel and Logan.
Thank our partners Kraken and Wallet Connect folks.
We will be back tomorrow at 10:00 AM Eastern.
Until then, go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye.