Yo-yo yo, what up? What up?
Good morning, Good morning GMG. What day is it?
OB? Oh, there it is.
Thursday Thursday OB Reminds me of my days.
Thursday March 7th 2024444. Look at that.
Another beautiful day to have a beautiful day.
Whoa. I like the studio right now.
It's got me amped up. It's got me.
Oh, I got my coast in this house.
OSF Mandel. And last second special guest
Raul Pal Ovi Mandel. Raul.
How are y'all doing this morning?
Good morning. Outstanding.
I mean, how can you match that energy, right?
He comes in like that every single day like that's it's the.
Two cynical Brits acquire thinking, Oh my God.
It's not even just a bull market.
Thing, bull market, fair market. We bring in that energy we out
here, you know, same intro. Look, we got a dream team on
stage right now for everybody. We're about to post a broadcast
link. It is live, We're live on
YouTube. We're live on video, on X and
everywhere and here. And while we're at it, if you
retweet the Twitter spaces, then we'll just pick someone and give
him 250 bucks. Why not?
You know why not? We we give money away every day.
Raul on the show. So you know, Mando gave away
like $7000 last week to to Amando Minutes subscriber and
we've been doing Luke Box spin. So we're we're, we're
everything. Amando minutes every day, just
so you know. I like that.
I like that the best. The Fastest growing news later
in crypto? You can sing for one to two
subscribers. It's 100%, right?
It's just us three. One of you unsubscribes every
other day. Exactly.
It's it's just the three of us, you know in and out of it.
But anyway, so listen, today on the show, you know obviously
we're going to go through the usual market report and whatnot
like we do every single day, yada, yada, yada.
But you know we do have Raul for the first half an hour or so.
It's going to be a very interesting market conversation
because Raul, you know I've been reading you, we've been reading
you and mentioned you on the show a lot.
You know you've been, you've been, you know we've been you,
we've been talking up the same bags.
We love our Solana and it looks like the FDX estate is slowing
down a little bit this morning. Finally, finally the gods have
listened to my prayers and and it looks like this overhang
could could I, I don't want to call it a bit over yet but could
be behind us. So anyways let me post the the
the stream link and broadcast. But in the meantime, I mean
Mando why don't we go to you first to kick off the market
segment and then when we have a good chat with Raul here on all
things market, I'd love to hear where you stand on the market
now Raul. And of course, I want to get
more into your Solana thesis because we've mentioned it quite
a bit on the show thus far. Yeah, GM, everyone.
So it does feel as though Solana has taken over in the last 24
hours. Obviously on the on the bounce
back from that big Wick, Ethereum is outperforming for
for a while and then kind of this morning slash going into
this afternoon we start to see Solana move.
The main piece of news that seems to have come out is that
the FTX estate has been selling looking to sell a staked portion
of its Solana as part of its bankruptcy proceedings.
Pantera, which is probably one of the the best known and oldest
VC firms in crypto, is now raising $250 million via an SPV
to buy that Solana. This story had kind of been
talked about for the last week or so.
People have been talking about that as being the reason why
Solana had been underperforming. So like I think people in the
know knew about this. Pantera have definitely gone
broad with with trying to raise for this SPV.
That being said like now that it's gone a bit more public you
start to see Solana, I know it's I'd be a bit more bullish people
think it could that overhang could now clear it's not like
completely bullish news. Obviously you know ABC firm
buying your bags probably down with a heavy discount
anecdotally hearing like 40 to 50% and then them being the one
selling it to you rather than Alameda back in the day or or
Sam like it's it's not amazing but it's also it makes a lot
more sense now about the underperformance and if this if
this clears I do think that there's probably been some
playing around with the Solana price into this to make sure it
kept it stayed depressed so they could buy as low as possible and
then now who knows after it clears you can sometimes see
this stuff fly. So Salama's been the main out
performer yesterday was a bit of an altcoin day right most
altcoins not mean coins so it was all all the coins mainly in
the AI sector a bunch of there was near and render we suppose
said they're going to be talking at the NVIDIA conference FET
which is fetch AI got $100 million investment for its
infrastructure fund and that's that is the sword.
But if you bring up a fetch yard it it literally looks like a
meme coin that was trading at like nought .5 just a few weeks
ago and now it's trading at nearly three.
So AI had a very, very big day yesterday as did a bunch of
different, just different coins in the in the L1 space and then
the D5 space just kind of caught up with what we've seen in meme
coins, Bitcoin ETH and today it feels like Solana Jupiter just
hit an all time high. Obviously that had been a
painful one for a lot of people. They are going through their LFG
AirDrop first votes this time. So you're going to see which
coins are going to be dropping on the Jupiter launchpad.
So people are getting bullish on that unit swap hit an all time
high. Obviously there's some they're
they're doing their fee change. So that's been a big move and
kind of feels like a lot of the activity in meme coins has moved
back to Unchained. So like a lot of the top meme
coins were down. That started to reverse slightly
over the last hour or two, but you started to see things around
the elections. So the Bowden meme, which sort
of from the like Dolan comics has has become big.
A bunch of those started to move back.
MOG obviously hit an all time high.
Basically anything that hasn't been listed is now.
People are now starting to play as a view that perhaps these big
exchanges start to list more meme coins after we've seen you
know three or four or five listed over the last couple of
months. So definitely feels like the
focus moving back to kind of on chain with meme coins.
Solana taking the is is the big big mover today in in majors and
then for to be honest like 4 altcoins today you can play
Solana like daps. So Jupiter might be interesting.
I still think that Solana looks cheap versus it's daps right?
Like Jupiter trades at 8 billion FTV and Solana trades at like 50
current and 65 ish FTV. So like that that's kind of high
in my view. So I still think I prefer Solana
rather than it's like Solana beta but who knows.
Let's see how this this financing goes over the next few
days slash weeks. If that clears, I do think
Solana could head a decent amount higher Bitcoin.
People are saying it could be range bound for a bit.
This is why people have been talking about the fact that
could be altcoin season. We could be kind of ranging
between 60, 63 to 68 K for a little bit.
Everyone too scared to touch that 69 K with that, with that
guy. Yeah, right.
May everyone So we're having a little bit of an altcoin season.
NF TS have been dull to to a large extent.
There was a huge AirDrop, actually were wormholes doing an
AirDrop for most things in the salon ecosystem.
So I think D gods got a 30 K dollar AirDrop.
Mad Lads got a 30 K dollar AirDrop.
Utes. Got a 15 K dollar AirDrop out of
nowhere? So that's the big thing.
Too. It's pretty interesting the way
they're doing the AirDrop, by the way.
It's like you. Have another and then you.
Have a your vesting depending on your NFT as well.
But that's that's part of part of that is also why Saul has
become very active again, like this AirDrop story which had
which had gone quiet for a little bit.
I think Santi put out a good tweet if you go to his, if you
go out to his profile. But now this is a long list of
things that are going to be back in focus again.
So if this does, if this supply does clear like we could be in a
situation where we have about 5 or 6 near term air drops on
Solana. And as I've just said like some
of the FT VS are way higher versus like the Solana chain.
So you can get like $1,000,000 air drops.
Worm wormhole I think is going to be about 3 or 4 billion I
think I saw, but it's going to be Kamino, which is the next one
they they've teased it could be coming today or at least details
around it today. And then you got like margin 5 a
bunch of different ones. So like it's going to be, it's
going to be an interesting season here potentially.
So I saw, I saw some some headline this morning and and I
definitely want to chat with you about this Raul here while we
have you. So was Pantera raising funds to
buy big Solana Holding by? The way also breven I've I've
got some insights into this. So how they're both doing it is
they're opening a book, it's an SPV and you get locked up.
So you get whatever the 40 something percent discount, 45%
discount, you get locked up for a few years.
So there's no extra supply coming onto the market.
And so it's actually net positive.
I don't know how well they've built their books yet, how much
they've taken on themselves, etcetera, but you know, they
were aiming to clear $4 billion of this stuff.
I don't know how much they'll clear.
We'll see. So what's what's your what's
your read on the market right now Raul.
Curiosity here obviously where you stand.
We know you're a big ETH bull always big salon bowl that.
We've been you've been tweeting we.
We are in. We're in Crypto Summer.
We just started Crypto Summer. Crypto Summer is up only.
Yes, you get the 30% pull backs that happen in your face in
minutes, but that's Crypto Summer.
This whole year should be Crypto Summer.
Yeah, we're all debating whether we get a left translated cycle
or or a or a bubble cycle that goes on further than we
imagined. We none of us know that yet, but
you know we're at the sweet spot.
Global liquidity is picking up, should continue going forwards.
Business cycles should pick up. So this is the time, this is the
great time and this is the time when ETH outperforms Bitcoin,
Solana outperforms ETH. A bunch of alts will outperform
Solana. So you know it's obviously it's,
it is the great opportunity, it's the kind of the big trade
is now on. OK.
I mean what do you what do you when you say like you know you
think Slaw's going to outperform ether.
Do you do you think like that's given also like the whole like
ETF narrative And how do you feel about like the the price of
eats given like ETFs are probably coming like in May?
So all financial markets work the same way.
You put capital in and it's coming into Bitcoin.
It then flows into the least, the less liquid assets and they
rise more right? It's just all markets work the
same way. So it comes into Bitcoin, it
pushes up the other assets. So the next phase is obviously
the ETH ETF. ETH is really an interesting
dynamic because the more ETH you buy the less the the more the
supply is reduced with about 28% locked up in in bloody staking.
I mean there's it's going to get quite a disruled disruling
market. It's just going to be, it's
going to be very price gappy to the upside and probably the
downside. So that's going to get fun.
Solana has been like the main adoption horse because it's
going up the adoption curve. So it tends to outperform.
So I just think you just have that perfect risk curve where
Bitcoin starts to cycle. Well, Ethan starts to
outperform. If you look at the ETH Bitcoin
chart it's basing, it looks like it should start to break higher
over time and that that's pretty much what happened.
When was it about September 2020?
No, it was like summer 2020. We saw the same kind of thing.
So we should see that continue. And then Solana, if I look at
the Solana ETH chart, it's about to break higher again.
It's like this perfect little flag pattern should keep going.
So it it looks as is and as I've kind of thought all the way
through, I think nothing changes.
Would you would you put because we were doing this today this me
and Ovi this morning on risk rewards sort of trades like
where where where do you think someone could go this cycle like
what what is your price sort of target here Because I we were
looking at now and saying old coin season is interesting but I
always feel it's a little bit dangerous because a lot of the
coins that pump they really have no users or sometimes even use
case Solana does feel different this cycle because it's not just
vapourware like it's not just an expectation of people coming on
people are actually here it has the most number of wallets.
It has basically equal share to ETH now and D5 volume, highest
number of NFT trading I think at least in terms of wallets for
sure. But yeah, like, what do you
think there? Do you think that's like a
different altcoin essentially is what I'm saying?
So I think Solana is ETH of the last cycle, right?
This is a proper blockchain that's getting full adoption, so
this is a real thing. Fire dance is the kicker.
So we've got some real stuff happening here.
So in terms of price targets, I mean, who the hell knows?
But if we kind of replicate what ETH did last cycle, that was a
45X from the low, so you get somewhere like about $500,500.
If I look at the other charts, I get somewhere between 500 and
1000 and it just depends on the structure of this market.
If we get a bubble cycle, it'll go to 1000.
If we get some sort of left translated, it gets to 500.
It's it's something like that, you know as we all know here,
you know price targets are are pretty useless but because you
need to see the structure and nature of the market when it
happens. So it's all well and good us
having an idea now but we'll feel it and know it when it's
happening and I'm still trying to figure out I'd love to hear
your guys views. So here here's my odds.
My odds is 60%. This is kind of a normal cycle.
I would say the last cycle we had wasn't it was stunted, the
last leg was stunted. We should have had another leg
higher we didn't get it. 2017 was was probably more of a
normal crypto cycles like 2013. They get quite blow off the top
At the end there's a full bubble cycle that could be kind of La
La land which I would give 20%. I give 60% to a normal cycle and
20% to a left translated cycle. That's kind of where my odds are
right now. How are you?
How are you guys thinking about it?
I've I've been less I've been more wary about this cycle
because it doesn't feel like we've seen the same levels of
participation that we had in previous cycles yet.
Like we've started to see Coinbase go up the the app at
list like number of wallets. I mean D5 TBL just passed 200 a
100 million, but like we're still we're still only like 40%
in terms of actual like people here down where we were.
COVID. We've got to remember that,
right? So, so it's kind of it's
interesting to me here like do we follow through and we
actually start to see the users, do we even need them this time.
Like it feels as though like you said it's really just an it's
more about capital in and Bitcoin.
It doesn't necessarily translate to number of users, number of
adoption like people buying a Bitcoin ETF doesn't necessarily
mean we're going to have a ton of people on chain trading
trading everything else. So maybe it does feel slightly
different than the other cycle. I would like to think that this
isn't just a cycle, That's basically what I'm I'm getting
at here. I would like to.
Think this more. Actual adoption, like we
haven't. I don't want this to just be
like we have thousands and thousands of people coming on
here for the next six months and it never really happened.
I would like to see a slow increase now in acceptance of
blockchain, an actual use case of it, which means that this
doesn't just feel like a bubble. I don't want to see a blow off
top bubble. I would rather see kind of
right. We start to see the RWA
narrative maybe pushed through after the election.
We start to see some of these games actually have use cases.
Some of these AI, you know coins actually have use case.
I I think that's maybe a bit distant way if if that happens
like if we do get better regulation on the RWA side and
we do start to see maybe one game, just one really like get
you know millions. Of.
Uses then. Then I would be more bullish on
the idea. This could be blow off top like
like you've never seen before. But for now, like even on the
even on the meme coins I'm seeing right, like with has got
60,000 holders in the past cycle that would have got hundreds of
thousands. But is it that we are really?
Early, Yeah, maybe we're just early.
We maybe just be early, but if this is going to be sustained to
get, I mean like COVID. Lockdowns hadn't happened yet.
Yeah, yeah. I guess that's the point I'm
trying to make in terms of answering the question is, is
that we need to need to need to get that blow off top.
I do still think we need more users than we have right now.
It feels a little bit like we're swapping bags on the way up
still. And.
And that that maybe could we can sustain it, but I do think it
would be it would be good to see like a slow rise in users now
you know. That's my fear of this left
translated cycle is we we kind of mean coin it so much to the
moon that the whole thing collapses under its own weight
before we actually get the app layer fired up and people are
actually doing stuff. That's that's the one fear that
we over hype it. Right, exactly.
OV what do you think, I? I think we won't know.
I I guess Ryle's point, Michael's point is that we don't
have as much participation as we did in the previous cycle.
Ryle's point is it's still early and I think we won't really know
the answer to that until we've gone above all time highs on
Bitcoin and and held that level. Because I think that's usually
the catalyst in the moment when it gets reported in the
mainstream media, bitcoins, bitcoins at all time highs and
it gets new highs. And that's when like the average
per the average sideline person when something when they see the
chart and they're like, oh, it's just almost at the all time
high, they don't usually buy it. But if they see the chart and
it's 20% above or 10% above all time highs, they're like, OK, I
get it. It's true that it's going higher
and I think that's when you start to get really get like the
influx of retail and new users. And we just haven't got to that
point yet. How many messages have you got?
I mean, I've got. A ton.
Oh, I've got 3-4 so far from
friends. Like, what should I do ex
bosses? Like, you know, how much Solana
should I buy? You know what?
I still don't have that many yet.
I have I. Have a few, but I've had a few
of people who are like, I'm not going to buy back in or like,
oh, I can't believe you've told me to get that coin.
They haven't yet. But.
Back in, you know what I mean? It's.
Cousin from India, cousin from India.
Trying to get a mum into it. My aunt, my 80 year old aunt.
So that's that was a. Hilarious.
Worrying sign? Do you sell like that?
I haven't gone yet. I I.
My boxing coach, my boxing coach showed me his.
He just has Revolut. He showed me his portfolio and
he bought a bunch of altcoins and they're all up about 500%.
And he bought Pepe recently and he was like, look, I just, it
has to just eat another zero. Then it's going to be a 10X.
So like, I think you you are. For me personally on my side,
I'm like every day I'm seeing more and more people enter and
more like I had another mate that just texted me as well
saying like all my everyone I know at works buying ship and
doge like like should I do this or or is this just silly Like I
get what at least one of those texts every day now if not too
interesting so pretty definitely on like at least on my side.
It's anecdotal, but it's definitely like materially
picking up I think for. Me, I think you get you guys get
more of these tests. You guys have a traditional
finance background where like you know, a lot of traders and
people that are like interested in like taking trades, making
money. I'm more of the media
background. Left curve background type of
thing, right? And I always say it on the show.
Like my difference around with the boys here is they're more
like track five of these guys. I haven't opened Instagram yet
to see a bunch of stories about crypto.
Like the people still posting on my Instagram about crypto are
the same people that were posting at the Lowe's and now
kind of running lapsing. I told you so I'm seeing a lot
of those. I might see two people that are
like trying to flex mean coin games, which are like vaporware,
right? And nothing.
But I haven't really gotten interest yet and I don't think
we get onto all time high for Bitcoin.
Like, I don't think like I look at the market from a different
perspective than the boys, Like I say from media perspective,
like being at the helm of like rug reader and decrypt.
I study decrypt, chart beat numbers.
I look at the fact that we did 3,000,000 visits last month.
I'm like, wow, we're going so much higher.
That's nothing for media. That's and then you have real
vision, right? You're you guys are also one of
the largest media outlets in crypto.
What do you think of it from that standpoint?
Like yesterday we shared the news that Arizona was about to
offer it. Arizona State wants to offer it
to people, the ETFs. Like what do you think from that
standpoint then? I don't.
Think we have not seen on the media side the rush?
It's not happened yet. It's the same people still.
Yeah, I can see my Twitter numbers growing again because
they were flat line for a long time, but they're still not
growing fast. I mean I hit a million, I don't
know four months ago and I'm, I'm at like 1,020,000.
So we're not seeing a massive influx.
So you're right. I mean look, there's some
anecdotal evidence, yes, but we're not really seeing a mass
participation and you know, but it is, it is early, it's early
in the cycle. We forget because look we were
all quite lucky in getting this cycle quite right.
So we feel like we've been in it all the way through.
But don't forget, last cycle most of us were buying now.
Or later. April, May and June last time.
It was later I got in the same time as you guys, right?
Like it was later like. Obviously the price is further
this time, so it's different. So I don't know and let's just
keep an open mind, I think. I think Michael's view is is is
also right. I I just don't think we know.
So we just have to keep a very open mind, which is why I'm
trying to use a probabilistic framework and just keep
adjusting as we go all. Right guys, guys it's over we're
we're hitting all. Time.
Can you guys stop being chickens?
Could you stop PTSD all you have?
It's over. This is the beginning of the
cycle. Don't you understand?
This. Is so scared.
See, the problem is that OSF and Amanda are scared because
they're about to be billionaires and they're like, well, how can
I be a billionaire? So they're having impostor
syndrome. And Raul's been calling for this
forever. So he's like, I know I'm right,
but I don't want to say it out loud because, like, just stop.
Just accept it. It's this is the beginning.
We're all going to make it. This is it.
Oh my God, yeah. Definitely we're going to make
it. It's whether it's a 2X on
Bitcoin or it's a 5X on Bitcoin, I think is.
Is where it's going to be. It's going to be a multiple X
Bitcoin is going to be adopted. We It's all happening.
What? We do.
The train left the station. That's it.
It's over. I think Benny Benny's right.
There is a lot of PTSD. I'm so careful in what I say
These days. I would have a very different
conversation with you guys off camera than on camera.
Yeah. Yeah, because I'm so cautious
because people are, you know, the Internet is a pretty awful
place. Yes.
And so, yeah, we've all been through it, right.
And so I think Benny's right. You know, actually every day is
much more cautious. And we do have PTSD.
Not more, not so much markets. It's PTSD from bloody Twitter.
Yes, Sir. But you know what Raul?
Like I man, I I always get called a bull tard.
And like, I'm a permit bull. I was bullish at the lowest and
bullish at the highest. But like, again, like we haven't
seen shit yet. Like if it's not even $4000
like. You've been right to be bullish
because the market over time goes bottom left to top right.
You know, in over the time horizon depends on what time
horizon people are using, which is the other big problem.
Everyone screws that up. Yeah, 100%.
What do you think of of the whole like, meme coin cycle
going on right now? Like you like I'm seeing like
obviously institutions buying up all the Bitcoin ETH, moving up
with it because they're going to buy the ETH.
Solana seems to be doing good all.
Slagging. It's dumb as shit.
And of course, I own some. What are your favorite?
What are all Pals are you trying to?
Get him cancelled. Are you trying?
To get him like I feel like he just.
Told you have to be careful and you're asking for his favorite.
What's your What's your favorite lowest market cap meme point,
Preferably sub $1 million market cap like this.
Is this is in the contract address?
To send the contract address What?
Sub quarter billion sub like above quarter billion dollars so
that we're at night right above a billion of it.
If you want like what do you like what?
What do you what is there did you need in the back?
My setup is I'm really 95% non, you know, just in my core
positions. And then 5% of silly stuff, of
which I've got some stuff that's too small that I can talk about.
And then I've got Whiff and I've got Bonk and I've got Doge.
Yes, I've got the dogs, you know, because the dogs run
first, you know, this is the perfect point for the dog cycle.
So you do a bit of that for the fun of it, but I, you know, I'm
not very good at this part of it because you always end up look
back and you're too late into a cycle.
You look back, you got this shrapnel of useless shit.
I mean, if I look back in my wallet last time around the the
decentralized and sandbox and all of this stuff you get stuck
with from narratives that you overstayed in, you know that's
the issue is not overstaying in this stuff.
Straight strangely again we were talking about it and I don't
know we're, I'm talking about it quite frankly.
But I actually thought some of the best risk award right now
wasn't some of the some of the meme coins like because I've
actually seen some of the AI coins and the gaming coins and
maybe even some of the other use case coins.
I still think RWA could have a move and D5 could have a move if
UNISWAP changes its fees. But they actually don't really
have the users to sustain like 10s of billions of dollar market
cap and most of them are already like 3 to 5 like some of the
some of the major ones. Whereas can I imagine Doge just
just on the idea that it's a form of currency going from 20
to 40 billion, it went to like card in that last cycle ship
could do similar. Like I personally think the risk
reward, I'm not saying they're going to go higher but like I
can see that and go is that really going to drop 50% here
like maybe. But I don't.
But some of this might well do, right, Doge?
Yeah, stuff like that. No, it's it's it's tokenized
culture now. It's it's folklore, right.
So I don't really have an issue with it.
I tell you, who's been amazing at this stuff is handsome,
whatever. I don't know who he is, that
Twitter account. I mean, he doesn't.
Exist. Is he real?
I think he was on rec radio. No, He used to work for.
Yeah, he used to work for churning, churning group.
I mean what's his name ZI don't know what, but he he's nailed it
and he's he understood it really clearly.
And you guys have done a good job with this as well.
You were you guys were flagging this really early.
And I think to the point, Michael is that it doesn't have
value and that's the easiest part to understand.
If if we do actually get and again the users come back just
to crypto, then I can imagine those going going high and I
actually find some of the other old coins a little bit scary
because sometimes it's just like I don't know what my downside
is. Whereas I feel like with those I
kind of know what my downside is.
And people are forgetting that they are literally sending a
rocket, a doge rocket into space.
And it's happening. What, next month?
People are forgetting this. They've been doing that for
didn't the last one like burn? Like it didn't reach the moon?
I remember I read that like they sent one a few few weeks ago and
it like failed to land on the moon and then doge.
That wasn't the Doge one, was it?
I think it was. There was some doge on it for
sure. They they're always trying to
land a rocket on the moon. But yeah I I look I I those
right now in this market I think you know with big one hitting
all time highs you have to be a bit wary because stuff a lot of
stuff has run up quite a lot but weirdly these these major memes
like some of the low cap ones move but these major memes have
only really started to move in the last week or two weeks
right. Doge only has done a 2X right.
It was part of me thinks that that could move ship, could move
similar like and then other memes could move and then it or
like all the other use cases. But I still like those as a
sector versus some of the others.
And then I still like to like I still think the RWA.
You're looking all the wrong way.
What's up, Benny? When Bitcoin has a 5 trillion
market cap by itself, OK, because that's what's going to
happen. All these other coins, when they
have like 500 billion market caps or one trillion, we're just
going to be like, OK, it's not going to be that shocking.
There is no market cap. I love you.
I mean, it is. Do you guys think that there is
a world where the meme coin market cap reaches a trillion
dollars? What?
What is it now? Right now, I actually just don't
even know it's. Way off.
It must be like way. Off 54 billion, yeah.
I mean, you'd have to see Doge basically.
No, I just it would be it would be pretty nuts.
Doge Where It's a world. Where it's possible that Twitter
uses Doge as a payments platform and then, look, it's possible,
it's possible, but it's not something I would bound.
Yeah, So here's a question, here's a question for everybody.
What's the market cap of the space at the end of this cycle?
That's a good question I. I think it's a similar question
to where we think it's going to end up.
My my base case is that we we we go to shy of 10.
So I think, I think Bitcoin roughly to 200 K 250 this cycle
and kind of everything else. Following.
So we're all about 10-10 trillion, right?
Yeah, it's around 10, I think. Yeah, so.
I'm, I'm at, they're either going to be.
Spectacularly wrong one way or the other, right?
It's gonna, I mean, even if you stop at 7, I'm happy, right?
But but ten trillion is the seems to be a number.
I mean, if we look. You see, this is the hard part.
People don't realise the hard part is actually the last part
of the cycle. It's the hardest part.
It's not buying the cycle, it's not running the cycle.
It's the end. Because if it finishes early,
you kind of get caught holding the bag.
If it finishes normally and you've got PTSD, you end up
selling a bit too early. That's not the worst thing if it
has a super cycle. I mean, I remember selling
Bitcoin in 2017 at like 2 1/2 thousand, thinking I was great,
went to 20,000 kind of 10X in the next 5 months and that's
really difficult to deal with. That's a bit bad because I saw a
tweet actually by Trader Maine which is like it's a bit, it's
the Prater Princi principle in that 80% of the gains come in
the last 20% of the of the market, right.
Like we we might see the vast majority of the gains now happen
after we've broken at the highs like 80% of the gains.
So like what what? I mean you had some famous
tweets on Solana, like what what, what have you learnt this
cycle versus last cycle and the ones that you did really well as
well? Well, can I actually, I wanted
to say world is actually 100% right and all being seriously,
I've been, I actually been through it.
I think I've been through pretty much every cycle in since the
beginning and this psychological fucking mindset that you have to
have to sell right is so stressful.
You know, I, I tweeted this, I said, you know, bull markets are
exciting, but they are extremely stressful because they're
euphoric. You get so into it.
And then that moment that you know that you have to take some
get like you know, gains off and you're not doing it because you
keep constantly thinking it's going to go higher.
That is like literally the hardest part of this whole
thing. And I know that sounds
ridiculous because you're like, oh, you're making so much money,
but the the emotional and psychological, you know?
It's easier not selling. It's easier going through the
downside. Right.
You just hold why not and and that that whole mindset of
puddle and you know hold the door and and and wag me all
those things feed into that and it becomes really it's really
struggle like my my great my advice I keep giving everybody's
like you need to take profits because if you don't you never
will and that that really is and then you keep holding this bag.
So like the idea like you know I totally agree OV that we want
this to be adoption but it's it's possible that adoption's
still like 1012 years away right.
So we so it we might need to like still be patient in this so
we might go to 250 go back down to 80 while that still sounds
amazing for us there's still time for it.
So I I I have to say like with what what Rule is saying is just
to give everybody a heads up the the to get caught in that moment
is just very very tough and I I I I felt it many times.
What's your answer to that row? Where, where?
Where do you stand them? So the last time I didn't sell
at all. And this time around, you know,
I've been thinking this is I will just take some off for
lifestyle chips probably at the end of this year just in time
and not price just because there's some lifestyle chips I
want to take off and then I'll run it and if it ends up being a
bubble cycle, I'll take some more off.
If it's a normal cycle, I'll just run it.
And the other thing, the other strategy I've got is and Benny's
aware of this, I've been talking to him about this is like I now
starting to think that the top of the entire investment pyramid
is the Super high end Arts NFTS of the O GS and that's where you
to put savings into. So you you just keep peeling off
savings putting them into that. You know there's OV with a auto
glyph behind him. You know it's.
A guy behind you? Actually I was looking.
I saw the red guy. There it is, looking at the
overalls, right hand, shoulder. Look at that beautiful red guy,
I think. That's that's how I'm thinking
for this. So I've actually been already
buying NFTS because they're still cheap in cycle terms.
So I've been buying some X copy and some B pull and stuff like
that and then and then yeah, end of year I'll take some off
regardless of price. Can I ask you about something?
Or Amanda, do you want to touch? I was.
Just going to say that, I would just echo that like people would
talk about DCA ING in. I think the best thing is the
DCA out everyone the worst thing you can, you've timed the top
and then it goes higher and higher and higher like best
thing to do is right. I think we're in the top period
here. Like let's say this period is
going to last for a year, six months.
Like if you start to feel like it really frothy, you know
Coinbase is #1 on the App Store regularly.
Maybe you think like over the next three months, I'll sell a
bit each day and then the stress is kind of gone.
If it keeps going great, like you're just selling out a little
bit and. By the way, the Coinbase app
thing won't work this time around.
Oh no. The reason?
Because there's 108 million accounts and there's like 10
million actives. 12 million actives.
You can't get another 100,000,200 million, right?
You're unlikely to see the rate of growth, so you're going to
have to find people. People will just.
Reactivate their existing accounts.
Yeah, they did it last time. So we have to find a different
measure. Unfortunately, if you can, you
can get it in their in their quarterly statements, the number
of active accounts. I think once that starts getting
close to the, you know, above 50 million, you know you're you've
got a really frothy market. I I have the top signal if
everybody wants it. When my mother-in-law asks me
about crypto or NFTS, that and I and I tweet that you should all
sell. But what I'm doing is so I told
my wife that I can't. I can't actually talk to my
mother-in-law, so I'm ignoring her until I feel like I'm
getting close enough that I've made enough money in the market.
And then? Just hang up.
When she calls, just hang up. Exactly.
Another great signal is is sitting right in front of you
guys whenever you hear me saying like absurd shit like last cycle
at the top of NFT in November. All the time.
Dude. Every.
Single. Day.
Like absurd level. It's meaning like I looked at
Danny seed phrase in the eyes in November 2021 and I said there
will never be a bear market for the rest of the world ever.
And he went upstairs to his room and he sold it all and I bag
held it all down millions. I don't know what just happened
to my camera but there's there's signals everywhere.
But you know I do say absurd stuff because I do think like
there's this is going to be an absurd cycle of it's the retail
cycle. It's the redacted cycle.
It's that cycle. Rel.
I want to ask you something quickly on NFTS because you went
there, I saw you in the business.
You're in the business of buying an X copy edition of 10.
I know, went back and forth about the doomed and whatnot,
but you did say that at the end of the day, the top of the
following was art and NFTS, right?
Or the bottom front on top of anyways, no matter how you put
the pyramid. Do you want to expand on that?
Maybe Like, how do you feel we are?
There's a lot of negative sentiment right now about ETH
NFTS with the ordinals. Are you looking to ordinals
yourself? Like where do you stand on the
Global NFTS here? This is the big macro view.
And you know, obviously I've understood NFTS for a long time
and where they fit in, but I didn't have the macro.
I even understood how to price him on a macro framework.
But a bigger thing is that if this space, if I'm right, this
space goes from 2 trillion to 10 trillion to 100 trillion to 200
trillion, right? That's what I kind of think the
magnitude of wealth that this space creates over the next 1020
years is the largest the world has ever seen in the shortest
period of time. Wealth gets recycled.
Now, if you ask anybody I've thought about this, I'm like,
OK, what do I do at the end of this cycle?
If I take a ton of money, if I took all my money off the table,
what would I invest it in? That's a really fucking hard
question. Yeah, right.
Do you want to buy equities? No, not with AI coming.
I just don't even know what businesses look like.
You know, there's a lot of real structural issues out there.
Do you want to buy Treasury bonds?
Real estate? Well, you know, yes.
Iranian dude. Rolexes, I Don't know, Iranian.
Uranium. But you know, you get to the
idea that in a digital world, in a world where a lot of people
have created wealth, in this digital world, art and tokenized
culture makes a lot of sense. And if you look back over the
periods of fine art, if you look at, you know, if you look at why
is Damien Hirst a very valuable artist in the UK?
Well, I was that period of late 90s in the UK and it was fucking
wild. It was the cultural epicentre of
the world. Damien Hirst was tokenized
culture, The Blur. They were Oasis, all of that was
that one thing, you know, the Fat Boy, Slim.
It was all that Damien Hirst is that Warhol is that baskets,
that Banksy is that. They're all that.
So we will all look back on this period of time and these things
will be very valuable to us. I like that movie.
Oh, go on, Arrow. Sorry.
And. That's that makes sense, right?
And that's the point. And, and it always happens.
If you look at Stevie Cohen, in the end you get there's there's
a limit to the number of houses people buy or whatever, right,
Because they're expensive to maintain.
People buy art. They always have and they always
will. So it just at a very, very
simple philosophical level, I just thought, you know what this
is. I get where this is going to go.
And really when you look at it, the O GS of the very beginning.
There's very few, there's very few who started this whole
movement that influence everybody else.
Doesn't mean that everybody else is not valuable or whatever
else. But there's there's literally.
That makes sense. Six people who seeded
everything. That's, I mean, that's
fascinating. And we're all 1° of separation
from all of them right now, which will never happen again.
Never have you heard of this artist called OSF.
And I heard he's not bad himself.
He's all right. He's all right.
Do you have, you have a couple
red guys? We see you.
We see. You.
Of course I do. Ralph's infamous in the Red Guy
community, yeah. I was straight in there and I've
always supported the Red guy community.
Thought for a while. He was the patron, right?
It's true. You thought you thought that was
bloody? We didn't know.
We thought, Henry, we thought. We thought it was Hugh Hendry,
we thought. It was Hugh Henry for a long.
Time it's. Not, no, it's not.
Actually, no it's not. We actually tried to interview
Hugh Henry to find out, but it's actually.
Alexander Arno. It's actually Alexander Arno.
That's that's that's why I'm hearing.
Did you know Raul? By the way, Speaking of
Alexander, Arno, Art and Parks, did you not Ovi bought the alien
the other day? I saw that I was like Ovi, well
done. But that's, you know, small fry
for you these days. He does.
That's like half of his whiff bag.
Like true. OK.
Here's a question for everybody. Who's going to be become the
main character this cycle? We asked him to do on yesterday.
Yeah, I think ansome is probably up there.
Especially it's ansome is kind of like levered to Solana.
If Solana becomes the dying of of the cycle, which it has a
strong chance of doing, because I think it it could repeat what
ETH repeat what ETH did in 2021, then ansome is going to be, you
know the the star behind that, I think.
I think he's up there for for #1.
Because it's it's TER you know again we're we're kind of early
so we don't know but it's the most dangerous place in the
world to be is that. You fancy being main character.
Do you fancy it? I feel like you had you like
your name might be mentioned. If Solana keeps going right,
like you, you would also be. You're the Solana Turbo ball,
Raul. I'm trying to be less active the
more it goes up. Ask Mark because you know it's
that dollar cost average out of of your forcefulness on it all.
You know, I think I played my role but I I don't want to.
It won't Doesn't mean I won't be bull pumping on the way through,
but I'm just you've got to be careful.
Honestly, I don't think there's going to be 1.
Thing you can tell it's terrible.
Oh yeah, it's horrible. Horrible, right?
It's. Horrible.
If you were having a glass of wine, it'd be entirely different
story. We can.
I mean it's what's well it's 11:00 AM here but maybe the lads
down there can have some like 5:00 PM for them.
But you know I don't think there's going to be 1 main
character boys like I think it's going to be we're we're getting
so big adoption wise like you're right.
Like Ansim is like the main character for memes and like
Salon Eco, but it was like checking.
In years time, yeah. When Bitcoin's at 250,000 and
everyone's lost their fucking minds.
Let's see who the main character?
We don't know. We haven't got the Michael
Saylor of this cycle. We haven't got any of these.
People that's that's OSF and Mando, don't worry, that's their
I don't think, look, I don't think there's been one main
character, but there's going to be a lot of characters at play
here and it's going to get very interesting in very, very quick
anyways. Wow, I just, I haven't realized.
We've been jamming for like almost an hour now.
Amanda Ovi. Anything else you want to ask
for, Raul or things you want to touch on?
I feel like we really went around Solana NFTS.
He never told us the contract address.
Like what? What are the?
What is the contract address,
Raul? What are we buying?
Raul with hat, is that coming out anytime?
Soon I was thinking, so I just launched the DTFU.
You know, don't fuck this up. Mean coin be.
Careful, someone's about to launch it right now on Solana.
Like it's like a copy. Paste, I know.
And then claim that it was me who launched it.
Then you know and it goes to 0. But maybe I wonder if there's a
way of launching a -1 so you need to short it.
Negative. We could try.
I know a guy, so hold on.
Hold on, hold on. In case of an investigation by
any federal entity or similar, I do not have any involvement with
this group or with the people in it.
I do not know how I'm here. I'm probably added by a third
party. I do not support any members by
any actions of this group. Listen, Raul, this is not like
OG 2021 NFT face milk, pouring head Faroque.
This is like President arc the Crypt rug radio, fucking at
tech. All this stuff, Faroque.
I'm not getting involved in this shit.
I've been main character before. I've been this and that.
It's not happening. I'm good.
We don't want it.
But look, Raul, maybe like,
before we take off, like I want to hear, maybe give us your
three wildest predictions for this cycle.
Doesn't have to be this year, could be one or two, could be
10. And maybe, hey, let's give real
vision some love. Like, what's next for real
vision? How do people keep up with what
you guys are doing, you know? So my wildest prediction is
basically, look, it's just don't fuck this up.
I'm going to keep saying it. It's so simple.
It's just don't do anything. Look, this show is all great fun
and we all talk about stuff. Pretty much everybody here is
actually only trading, messing around with a smaller part of
their position. Really we're actually just
holding our core positions where we have beliefs and that is
really the key thing. And you know, yes, you know,
role bit's a sponsor. Yes, people use leverage.
Yes, everybody here is ex financial markets, right.
Everybody knows how to use leverage.
I don't use leverage, but you know, again, you can do it on
the small bag, you can learn the game.
But just this is the biggest crypto has been and remains the
biggest macro opportunity we have ever been given.
It's the best performing asset of all time in the fastest
period of time. This is the big one.
This is the one where you don't get a chance to bitch.
We didn't get a chance. They got rich.
Every single person on Earth can put 10% of their weekly paycheck
into this. So we're all on a level playing
field. So the key thing is not lose
control of your tokens. So that's, that's really it.
And you'll be fine. You'll be fine.
Just don't get too greedy. You'll be fine over time.
So yeah, that's the main thing. And look, real vision.
Part of that is really trying to help people in this.
You know, Commando and Ovi have been really gracious for their
time trying to help people really, you know, they've,
they've helped us create an education product to to educate
people and also been on the platform a lot to help people.
So you know, people just come across it's free realvision.com,
you can go to the crypto gathering, everybody was there
again, trying to educate people so you can learn the tools that
you need and meet people on the platform, find your community,
enjoy yourselves. And if you do that, you'll have
the kind of knowledge, tools and network, and it'll definitely
increase your probability of success.
And with that, I think this is a great place to call it off.
Raul, thank you so much. I just so you know, we've broken
every high ever for this show. You can, I don't know if you can
see, but at the top I can 12,000 live viewers on video at the
moment. Oh, wow.
Thousand more on spaces. I'm like.
I look, and I bought that for you, right?
I wore that brought it out The return.
You buy that. Like, who sells that top?
Let's see on the real vision merch.
Site Oh, is it a real vision merch?
Real vision merch. Where do we get it?
Let's do let's promote this right now.
Let's do it. Well, I might buy myself one of
those. I might buy myself.
Don't fuck this up merch as well.
So if you go to the go to real.com, go to the merch store.
Where? You'll have to.
You haven't logged in so. Oh yeah, you log in and
everything. OK, I will log in and I will go
to the store. So you make an account y'all and
you've. Got I've got hoodies with Don't
Fuck This Up on T-shirts. And then there's a whole bunch
of other stuff like Irresponsibly long.
Then you know what? You'll see us wearing that
hoodie. Maybe I'll buy.
Vintage. Now these are vintage, right?
I got crucified for this on the Internet last time around.
It's like it's iconic now. I love that that you say you
wear. Everyday.
Rose like I don't, I don't wear use leverage.
I wear it. So anyways to the 12,200 people
watching us live, make sure that you follow Raul GMI on X.
Make sure you follow at FOMO hour where like every single
Monday to Friday 10:30 AM Eastern Standard Time to 11:30
AM Eastern Standard Time. We've been hosting over 600
shows. 600. We're over 600 days in a row
now. Man.
Raul, it was Jam and FTS Jam within a formal hour.
Bull bear this. Is how you do it.
This is how you do it. This is how you do it.
What on guys. Always a pleasure to see you
all. See you in the flesh somewhere
soon in the world. Are you anybody going to Dubai?
Token 24. Yes, Sir, we shall be there.
Yeah, I was just planning that with the.
Team to see you there. Well, we'll see you in Dubai.
Thanks for coming, man. Appreciate you.
Wow boys. What a what an episode.
What a show what a time. You know we saw 12,000 people.
So I'm quick gonna, you know, say make sure you follow OSF.
Make sure you follow Mando. Make sure you follow myself on
on on on on X make sure you follow at formal hour we're live
every single day both on the Rugby YouTube but also on video
on here. We show up, we pull up, we talk
crypto news we talk daily macro news.
We talk memes. We talk NFTS all with good
laughs and good hearts. NFTS are whatever you want it.
You got it. And yes Yannick's asking rug
video. Raul is a rug video holder
himself and a great friend of all of ours.
I know I say I give $250 away. How do we pick.
Let's just pick someone quickly right now like on that's
watching like on video or something like I I'll just like
I don't know I don't know how to do this.
I'm trying to end it. But but we'll we'll pick someone
same same when we how do we undo this.
Let me just pick someone real quick.
Nope. Nope, Never mind.
But anyways, where's Sibs? Is he back?
There he is. Do the phone, do the phone?
Do the phone just. Just get Mando to pick a number
and well, Mando will say stop as you go up and down.
OK, you know what? Here's a go Mando.
Tell me when to stop. Now.
Yep, here it was. Case Kazi Kamakazi.
Kamakazi with the mutant Ape comic.
Kazi with the Muna Ape. Our team at four more hours is
going to reach out to you just won $250 for listening to the
show tomorrow. Tomorrow we'll be live.
My boys are not going to be there.
But we'll be replaced for the day by ice bags and by these who
will becoming Co host with me. And we're ripping $10,000 worth
of loot box bins with our partners at Robit tomorrow.
So let's get ready. And with that, with that, with
that, we'll see out tomorrow morning, 10:30 AM Eastern
Standard Time, 7:30 AM Pacific Standard Time for the episode of
FOMO Hour on rock radio. Let's go.