Good morning. Good morning GMGN.
It is another beautiful day. Do have a beautiful day.
Well, it's actually not that beautiful day out here in
Chicago, but we'll pretend it is.
Welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
I think this is episode 17170 folks.
Our first show of August, August 1st, 2024, 444.
It is a rainy, gloomy morning here.
Chicago, a bit of a parallel with these crypto markets this
morning with some on the board. We'll get into that here in a
bit. No for Oak today.
He'll be back tomorrow, but we've got man, he is back to
catch us up on the market. Mando GM, how you doing?
I'm doing great, man. Yeah, not the best day in the
markets, but everything's good for me.
Yeah, a little bit of you know, a little surprise coming out of
some of the FOMC. I think stocks doing OK, but
yeah, we'll we'll chat about it here in a bit folks.
What are we going to talk about on today?
We had the big FOMC meeting yesterday.
We'll talk reactions to that. We'll talk some crypto price
action perhaps why? What are some of the factors
causing this dip? Tethers big profits in 2024.
Loomis officially introing the big into U.S.
Congress. We've got Polymarket just coming
off of a record smashing month, some massive numbers.
Vanek, they laid out their sailor version of price targets
for Bitcoin for 2050. These are some eye popping
numbers. We've got memes bleeding, but a
few big winners on the board and a couple of NFT headlines.
If we've got time that we may get into here as well with that,
Amanda, why don't we get into the the market report if we've
got the intro song there, who? Is the man macrobladdy of the
land? Can you dig it?
Yeah, well, we've come a little bit lower now, right?
Like I think Solano was at 193 just three days ago or it just
over three days ago Bitcoin was at 70 K Eek was at where was the
3500 area or 3400 area? So a decent move lower across
all three of those over the last three days.
I don't really know. Initially you had the movements
of Mount of Mount Cox and then the the government, U.S.
government moving that Bitcoin. We didn't really rebound then.
Then you had like a little bit of sell off in stock.
So maybe it was related to that. And then yesterday you had the
Fed. I, I don't really see why crypto
reacted poorly to the Fed. We have had a negative
correlation for the last few months with stocks.
So maybe you could say this is a continuation of that negative
correlation. My honest opinion though, is
this is an unwinding of the Trump trade, which we're seeing
that that's what I, that's what I think we've seen.
The odds of a Trump presidency have gone down quite
substantially, I think from about 69% to about 55% in the
space of just a few days. So on the back of basically JD
Vance not being seen as a good candidate for VP and then just a
few kind of gaffes. And yesterday's, although it was
like quite divisive gaffe at the, I think it was National
Association of Black Journalists, which I don't know,
just didn't. Some people thought he did well,
other people didn't. And it's kind of made him look
even worse again. So now stocks, it's mixed what
this could mean. Like a, you know, Democrats can
come in and spend a ton of money on fiscal measures and you can
you can something see a bounce that way.
We actually saw a bounce when after Biden was was elected as
well. You could argue it both ways for
crypto. I think it's more difficult to
argue. I think, you know, we don't know
how Kamala will treat will treat crypto, but it's not just
Kamala. I think it's some of the people
in that administration will probably have an anti crypto
skew. And people are worried about
four more years of potentially Gary Gensler, Elizabeth Warren,
a few of the other anti crypto army that are kind of in
Washington. So that's been like the main
worry and that's what I think has been happening.
Like yesterday's Fed, Fed news to me was was bullish.
They said they would cut rates. You've seen the Bank of England
also cut rates today. You saw U.S. stocks kind of rip
higher after that or at least regain some of the losses
they've had. You had big gains in big tech.
NVIDIA was up 11% for example, yesterday.
This was a good day yesterday for macro.
Even gold is near all time high. So gold stocks again, all all
doing well yesterday and crypto went low.
And I can only really think that when you start isolating that
down, it's probably due to to that Trump effect.
And then secondly, we seemingly continue to to sell off whenever
there's sort of tension in the Middle East.
And obviously there's been a rise, rise in kind of attacks
over the last over the last week and talk of retribution and
maybe maybe we sell off more than other markets due to that.
I'm not really too sure why, but I'm just talking about
historical rather than actually trying to make any sense of it.
But for me, I feel like the main thing has probably been been
unwinding of the Trump trade and you've seen kind of everything
fall pretty substantially. Like I said, it's now since that
local high, well Solana must be down about 15% and Bitcoin is
down nearly 10% and it's similarly just over 10%.
So yeah, decently across the board.
I you've seen a little pockets of, of strength and things like
D5, there's a lot of talk about D5 now D5 protocols moving
towards fee switches. So things that are there have
had a strong weak and a couple of like the D 51.0, let's say
protocols could come to life on the back of a fee switch there.
But meme coins, at least the top meme coins have not done well.
They've all sunk, sunk pretty badly.
You can have with I think below 2 again, Pepe's kind of holding
up above 0.01. But yeah, you know, some of the
other hot meme coins of the last of the last few months, like
even MOG has had a big, big reversal having it like it was
about to hit all time high. That's moved substantially
lower. So just a bad week.
There's there's a lot of finger pointing it feels like right
now. Pub dot Fun actually had its
biggest revenue day ever, I think yesterday or the day
before and made about two and a half, $1,000,000 in a day.
It's now made, I believe close to 80 million of cumulative
revenue Pub dot fun. So kind of a crazy, you know,
this this website will start in January, so kind of an insane
move or maybe even in March. It looks like it was made so but
yeah, it's highest day ever was two days ago.
And people are, are kind of wondering how long that can kind
of continue because when you, I think the, the difficult thing
is when you have what happened with Nero happen where on the
back of it, you had a bunch of coins to launch, which pumps up
fun, makes money on. And then he also had MEV bots
just basically making so much on the trading side of things.
You know, all the Nero coins on Solano haven't really done that
well. And a bunch of MEV bots probably
made a ton. That's a lot of value kind of
leaving the system. So people just getting a little
bit more wary about how long this can potentially continue.
I think at least I just see that sentiment on the, on the
timeline. I I, I don't know, it feels like
this feels more like a casino rather than a protocol.
And I feel like people are going to come in and spend money on a
casino whenever because you can get those zero to 100 X moves
still. But you can just see this
fatigue and salon Amine coins and the reason why Nero and Eve
for some people did well, apart from the idea, you know, it has
insiders. A lot of salon coins also have
insiders and don't do as well. Like I think that there's a lot
of PvP at the moment on Seoul and a lot of lot of funds and
revenue seemingly leaving towards pumped up fun and and
these Amy V bots. So it feels like a bit of a bit
of an inflection point. It did maybe a few few weeks ago
too. To me, it kind of felt like, oh,
you know, are we going to is this kind of the the highs that
we're going to see for meme coins?
And then we kind of came roaring back.
I don't know if it's the sentiment thing, but yeah, it's
just not good when you see huge volumes going through pumped out
fun having this biggest day and none of the meme coins really
hitting it kind of just tells you that, oh God, like this is
this is not a great environment for Solana meme coins.
This has been the the, you know, the product market fit of this
cycle really. It hurts confidence and we've
seen like the the newer class, like some of the newer like cult
coins get get hit fairly hard in this move, which I don't think
has helped. Maybe kind of coming back on an
analogy I saw for pump was to open C and just like the the
insane fees that open C was raking in during the NFT bowl
from 2021. And I think one of the arguments
I saw is that that this pump can go a lot higher.
It feels a little different to me because I feel like in the
NFT run, it felt like more people were winning and in this
pump market it like you kind of we've been talking about a
little bit you, you called it out again today.
It feels like it's the it's the devs, it's the Mevbots, you
know, maybe a few early snipers, you know, in the trenches and
then pump like really feel like they are the the big winners.
It feels less like every like all the players are winning
right now. And I do wonder if that puts,
you know, someone of the ceiling.
Yeah, look, it's interesting because I feel I don't too sure
with MFTS, I felt like people lost money too.
They were just here to gamble. And I think as long as, you
know, the majors keep going high, we, you know, we probably
still have this casino going, but there is a little bit of
fatigue. You know, Bitcoin has been
between basically 60 and 70 K since February.
It has not really moved. We kind of went up to 71 K,
we've kind of gone down to 50 fifties briefly, but we've never
really been outside of that 60 to 70 K range for too long.
So I think people are just getting a little bit bored
potentially. And also that the, you know, the
top down Ponzi, let's say, or the top down pyramid of, of
crypto hasn't really seen the gains at the top levels.
You know, Bitcoin, Bitcoin is on its way to 100K right now.
You know, we we'll all be at the casino straight away.
But like when it's not and you see this sort of these sort of
figures where pump's just like crushing it and the the MEB bots
are crushing it, then it's a little bit little bit wary I
think. Yeah, no, I, I that logic makes
sense to me. And by no means do I think pump
is going away. I do think it is absolutely
going to be here for this cycle. And I guess my point is we need
a little bit more of A to to really keep this short term, but
we'll the the folks, this casino enough that they're just going
to keep running this up every single night.
And it seems like there is a new culture kind of forming around
this at this point in time, which is hard to deny.
You kind of went there on on Nero Frok and I spent a little
bit of time talking about Nero yesterday, but here's have you
been following this one? I mean, this is like, duh, it's
it's down now, but this has been the biggest out performer of the
week by far in in what has been a pretty red week.
Curious if you have any thoughts, Reggie.
Yeah, I. Think it just seems like a
classic insider pump. We've seen, we've seen them
happen on Solana and they happen actually quite often on Solana.
But they none of them have really managed to last above a
hundred 100 million. You had you had a few of them
which were like even more inside of like beer, where they own
like 90% of the of it and then they ran it all the way up.
This feels a little bit more balanced.
Like Nero does feel like, you know, there are tons of people
trying to come on the back of this and there's a history of of
things of obviously like the doge, the doge joke like this.
This feels decent ish as a meme, Maybe not the best meme I've
ever seen, but enough. It's not just like a random name
like beer, but I do think this this more shows to the idea that
that on Solana, this probably wouldn't have gotten this far.
In my opinion. There's just too much temptation
and I honestly, I, I haven't been, you know, I haven't been
meme Corning anywhere near what, what, what I had been just
because I've just been, I've got so much on my plate.
But I, I've seen OSF come back into it a little bit.
I think he sold some bags and wanted to kind of come into it.
And he's just like, it's, it is just crazy.
Like you can be up on a coin. You're like, oh, this is going
to be the one. And then there's just no
loyalty. Like all the because maybe not
even loyalty. This is too much temptation.
There's just a new coin every day.
And you know, and he's in part some stuff and you know, they
just the same people that are in weird for going to the next coin
and the next coin and the next one, the next coin and the same
people that were in I know, boom or Mew or any of these Popcap,
they'll just spin up another coin and they'll do it again.
It's it's so easy to just make another one.
So this, this thing I saw yesterday, which there's I think
if you go to Sisyphus's page, he retweeted it, which is how I saw
it. But there was a good kind of
talk about how there we go. This one, this one.
Yeah, the trenches feel pretty quick right at the moment.
Going to lay out some data. He basically goes through one
point. Nearly 1.6 million coins have
been created now, 6000 a day at the moment.
Like that's, that's a lot of memes, man.
And we haven't seen. I'm trying to remember the stuff
that's really run, like the stuff that's run recent Billy,
but where's Billy now? It's back to 100 million. 100,
right, Like the stuff, I haven't seen many new things that have
run above 100 million for any sort of period of time.
The only stuff that's really lasted there is stuff with it
which has been a bit more seasoned, like Giga has gotten
above there and kind of stayed above there and maybe one or two
others. But like, can you sort it by
market cap? Oh, here we go.
This is really good. Yeah.
So like Moo Moo as well. Like Moo Moo has is a four month
old meme. Gig is a six month old meme.
Billy is now. Yeah.
Back below 100. It's one month old.
It just feels as though you can't, you can't keep these new
memes above a certain level. Like I actually felt like that
smoking chicken fish was doing something unique.
I don't know, like that there's one that OSF went into, for
example. I feel like if that had been on
Eve as well, that may have run much, much higher than than just
just like a random cat or dog meme.
I don't know. Basically, I think everyone
feels it. There's this fatigue there.
Look at that. I mean, look at the 24 hour
picture of that of these meme coins, man.
Like this is this is bad. So yeah, that's where I'm at.
Shout out to Frok in his flog, his flog bag.
It's like the only green coin on the board here. 100%, but he's
coming out. Yeah, I think you got this one.
Flog. It's like an artist takeover
coin. I I'm not in this much.
I don't have the full picture, but try looks good right?
Now I think I, yeah, I read this.
I read this story. Yeah.
The thing is that I just feel like.
And it wasn't it, it not, it's not like NFTS or, or I remember
when Pepe came up, right? And even some of the coins
around Pepe like we've spoken about like Mog and Bobo, which
were created in the months afterwards, they actually did a
good job. I felt of actually chats there,
which people became part of. And you know, people would be in
them for months. And they really did feel like it
felt similar to NFTS. You know, when you're in the
Discord and you're speaking to be in Discord, you're actually
having relationships, you feel you can feel like you're in such
a good meme, like this is a really good meme.
This can run and you just you just get blindsided because
another one comes out next like the next day and there's there's
like no consistency. So that's that's basically what
I think. I think some of these memes last
year would have absolutely like cooked, like some of them are
actually all right. But now it just feels like it's
tough. That's the reality and we were
able to make that argument back in Q1 where like a meme coin
communities are kind of like NIT projects.
You've got your holders, they've got their group chats, like
they're forming culture. And now like everything is just
being speed run so much. And it's like, OK, we got the 30
million, we got the 50 million. Let's on to the next one.
And it, I feel like it, it's the sense that like Bill, let's take
Billy for example, Billy got to like 180.
It's feels much harder to pump that another three to 5X from
there and actually go to a billion versus just like let's
just take over another one and run it to 30 to 50 million,
which is basically, I feel like the new ones are happening on a
weekly basis, right? Which I guess is where the
action is. If you can, try to catch those
that look like they have at least a week of longevity, but
it feels like the timelines are just shorter than ever.
You, you put that image in my mind again of like the roller
coaster which gets gradually lower and lower and lower.
It does feel like about a few months ago reaching 100 million,
quite a lot of coins were doing it.
Now it feels like if you reach 50, it's it's like a real, real
achievement. I, I don't know, but that it
just that just got me thinking and I think we can even come
back from this. But I'm just telling you where
I, where I see the market right now, it's that a lot of people
are suddenly aware that this could be, this looks a little
bit more fragile than other times.
And you know, like Solana, Solana hit 192 and with didn't
even break $3 like Solana basically that went back to,
well, very close to its local high of the cycle and, and with
didn't go back. And I think that probably tells
you that the the, the, the, the L1 or they could outperform
here. Yeah, I don't want to be back
bearish at the bottom, but I am a little more concerned that
we're we're seeing like the downward roller coaster loops in
that that's what might be playing out.
Well, perhaps enough time on on memes here.
I want to maybe just quickly come back to the FOMC meeting
and just impact on interest rates.
And what was kind of jumped out to me from the, and I'm
following it more on polymarket. You, you may have there, there's
likely better markets out there, but it looks like three rate
cuts or 75 BPS is now the heavy favorite for 2024, which
effectively would mean, you know, either back-to-back cuts,
September, October, November. And actually, I don't recall if
they, they have November or December meetings or else one
bigger cut. So you can win this with three
cuts of 25 or with A50 and 25. But I feel like we, we, we at
one point we were much higher than three and then it, we went
back to like one or two cuts and now it seems like 3 is back.
Is that the consensus with, with what you're seeing as well?
And, you know, any other reactions to, to, you know what
three cuts might mean? I lost you there first.
You see me now? Yeah.
I, I got you. I think, I think they're three
might be a little bit too far. I think we'll definitely get to,
we will definitely get to the interest rates are really high.
They're still really high, like 5 1/2 percent.
That is with with inflation at at 2:00-ish, that's really high.
And you've seen the Bank of England move to cut rates, the
ECB's cut rates. So the other two big central
banks have have cut rates. I think, I think it's 100% is
happening in September. I think they're going to have to
cut stock cutting rates pretty quickly, if I'm honest.
I think, I think you're starting to see some weakness,
particularly on the consumer side in the US And I think I
think you're going to see quite a lot, quite a lot of rate cuts.
That's why I thought. I watched the presser yesterday
with Powell and I thought there are a few people asked the
question the kind of the same way as if you think this is
coming so much like why not just cut now, which I think was and
he laid out his answer. He just he has to have another
month of data and whatnot. But that was the question that
was also in my mind. It feels so telegraphed at this
point, like why wait another month?
But that that's their choice. It does seem pretty much all but
confirmed is coming in the next one on the Poly market fronts.
They just closed out July. So just quickly I, I've been
tweeting about this a decent amount, but if folks haven't
seen this, they, their growth is parabolic and it's pretty hard
to argue. So June was their record setting
month at 111 million and they hit 380, seven, $387,000,000 in
volume in July, which I would have thought a billion dollar a
month pretty much out of the question.
But now it's just a 3X maybe. I mean, if there's enough
political turmoil. I mean this, this was also like
one of those months that may just never be like recreated in
history with everything that took place with with Biden
dropping out of the race with multiple VP noms, candidate
switches and all that. But like the growth looks pretty
damn good and they've got, I think this.
Is. Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, I think this is. An up only figure until the
election. Then I think it's after the
election they have to really worry about, you know, like
what, what does this site even make sense really?
And at this sort of scale after the election, what would people
bet on? They may they may move towards
sports, they've said, but I think you might have to have
like licenses for some of the stuff that they're they're
basically doing there. They probably they couldn't do
it on certain things. I've been, I have been
interested to see that they've gone after things like interest
rates and stuff like that for, for gambling.
There's, there's normally quite strong rules around betting on
on, well, I guess securities, but I feel as though this is
this could lead to people looking at at them in a, in a
pretty strong lens. I feel like if they're if it was
more about the news rather than rather than actual economic
data, or maybe they can get around with it, like with my
interest rates. I don't know.
But the, the, the real thing, like the real thing for them is
what what happens after the election?
This site is going to crush it until the election.
It's going to absolutely crush it.
Imagine, imagine how much volume is going to go through on
election night, because they'll probably bring up, they'll
probably bring up all the states, You know, they yes.
Nate Silver for. A reason right like he he
famously predicted all 50 states I think in his model maybe the
last two elections Oh definitely he's known for like getting a
many of the battleground states right and that's how he does his
prediction so I think yeah well let's see there's going to be
insane volume that goes through this site yeah you're right
we're. Already seeing so like a the
Pennsylvania State election, there's already a top 20 market
on here with over $1,000,000 bet.
And I think the numbers have been big so far, but you've had
to lock up the capital for a really long time.
And I think that's been a part of the opportunity cost
decision. Like even if you really liked
one of these lines, like in the presidential election market,
for instance, you're, you're still like, unless you're
holding USDC, you're, you're likely going to have to convert
from like ETH or something else. So you are potentially risking
the, the return on those assets. And even from USDC, like you're
locking up your election bet money for another full three
months, which is a long time in the crypto space.
But like once we get into October now, it's like, OK, I
mean, I can lock this up for a month, right?
For a bet that I've got a lot more conviction in.
So it feels like that's going to be a a big month and the states
I agree are going to get very interesting because by then
we'll have the models. And we saw this yesterday.
So I tweeted it like Nate Silver.
So he updates his election model daily.
He had a pretty big job in his model yesterday.
He went down from 6139 Trump to 5642 and then Paulie market saw
is basically aligned to his. So I I think if folks aren't
following. So if you're in these markets
and like, and you're actually playing these bets, spend 10
bucks to sub to Silver's model because it's going to give you
an edge. If, if, if Paulie Mark is just
going to keep conforming to whatever his odds are on a on a
daily basis. And this is a small sample size,
but that's what happened yesterday.
This is getting interesting now, isn't it?
5543? This is going to be, I mean,
it's going to be a fucking battleground X for the next few
months, right? Like X is a battleground.
Right now it's a joke. At the moment man, like me and
me and Obie were talking about it yesterday.
Like it's tough to be just on the timeline at the moment.
Like all I, I log on and all I see is like politics and race
basing as like half my fucking timeline every single day.
Which which is tough because I think free speech is super
important and I think whenever I'm looking for the actual truth
about something, I'll come to X. Or if I'm looking for live
breaking news, I'll come to X because you actually get the
story. You get the truth around things
actually much better. But this comes with a fat dollop
of just, I just can't deal with it.
You need to take it, take me away from it.
Occasionally it's getting. Rough mine, Mine is the same and
I only interact, you know, for the most part with like crypto
and in NFT accounts and still my for you page is like 75% like
politics and and just pure baiting and just vitriol.
I think vitriol is the correct word for just like these are
anger, angry posts from from folks on on both sides and it
does not make for a a great experience.
But I don't know. It's just it's weird because.
I feel like you can't have one without the other.
That's what I've come to realize is that you to have to allow
people to say what they they like.
Then it's yeah, you, you, you get the truth around things.
But you also just get like you get click baity stuff, which
often leads to like race baiting or like in a sensationalism and
all this sort of stuff. And I think that that's become
so much around X at the moment. It is.
But like you said, I'm, I'm on there.
I follow like crypto Twitter accounts.
But what why is why is this constantly on my feet?
It's kind of it's kind of crazy. But yeah, that's, that's just
the way it goes. It's just weird to me because I
feel as though if people said half the stuff that they said on
X in on the street, they get arrested.
Like it's it's kind of gone beyond free speech in my
opinion. I'll be, I don't, I don't know
where that ends. But like there are even in the
freest of countries, you know, like the US, the UKI would say a
lot of Europe. I mean, people might say they're
not 100% free, but on a spectrum of, of being allowed to do
things, they still would've been the stuff that people say on X.
It's just it's just crazy. Like it is people just they just
spew hatred all the time. I feel like at the moment, yeah,
it was just that. He's gone on holiday.
Yeah. Smart.
It feels like we've we've gone a little bit too far.
Maybe we're reaching an inflection point where things
will just boil over and perhaps we'll come back to a little bit
more normal. I didn't think I think Elon has
to be a little careful. So I he he banned one of the
like, you know, white guys for Kamala Twitter accounts
yesterday. And they're like, X is either
going to be the town hall and or it's going to be right leaning.
And if he wants to, if he bought to make it right leaning to, to
align with his political views, now that's fine.
And you can make strong arguments that other media,
social media platforms are left-leaning and this bounces
out. But once you cross that line,
it's kind of hard to cross it. So he's got to be why?
Why did he? Do that.
I haven't seen the. Rationale I just saw the post
that he had he had taken it down.
So I don't know. I I don't want to spend too much
time on it without Yeah. But I agree with you, your
sentiment. He is, he's obviously come out
very pro the right into this election, right?
And for his own reasons. But that does seem like he's
always going to be challenged. Now as a someone who runs this
like he has a political virus. He says he has a physical virus.
So for him to then be a proponent of free speech is, I
guess you can be both, but you're always going to be liable
to be attacked for that. Yeah, for sure.
Especially for. Folks, if they think they're
being fed more right wing info, even if that's true or not.
Yeah, but we've we've gone around the horn on this.
Maybe just a quick couple NFT headlines, a little lighter note
to end things. So we saw doodles.
They've got a collab coming with drink Arizona, say Arizona TA
pretty major. Well, partnership with them.
And then did you follow the Machi?
You know, as a former board ape, I did this was a wild one.
Let me try to get my my screen back up here one second.
But he effectively I mean he it was branded as a a meme coin.
I'm not really sure that that's what it is.
So he's saying for too long apes have desired to play in the meme
coin. Swamps couldn't do it.
Now you can with with help from APE by introducing BAYC coin
ticker BAYCA new meme coin only backed by Borde B out club NFTS
for each ape, you can go to their site and it's 100 million
of this token for each more ape that you send in.
So I don't know, maybe I misunderstood this, but this
feels like foreign protocol. Like I guess what, how is this
different than like what foreign protocol already did, where like
you turn in an ape, you get, you know, X amount of coins for it.
And then if you want, I think it, yeah, I think it's the same.
I think it's, I think it's basically the same.
And that's what these traders did.
They realized that there was an EAP pool, basically an implied
valuation for this given the Ethan the pool and they came in
and basically made it so it was parry to what the evaluation
was. I had you.
Know matchy does so many random things like honestly, he does so
many random things so I I I know he's he has his own like ape ape
finance, I think was the name of the if I think he did and he was
obviously involved in in. You know he's been involved in.
Various different protocols along the way.
So maybe he thinks is a good idea.
I, I just, I want to say I, I have no idea, but it does feel
as though, I mean, look at that chart.
That's the chart of the of the coin, right?
It must be. It is.
So like Sirius was the one who who pointed this out, but
apparently there was just this insane arbitrage Where folks, as
soon as he launched this, folks were, were buying their floor
apes for 9 ETH and then they were selling them for 304055 ETH
worth of of the token and then effectively selling those.
And that's how you, that's how you get a chart that looks like
this. So I guess I don't, I don't
understand the mechanics of how that how that happens.
I don't think better than anyone really.
Does. Who knows?
That's a hell of a trade. Maybe it was matchy, you know,
who knows? He's got like. 35% of the
friend, the friend Tech LP I don't.
Know how he trades? Like unless he was a bit, he was
buying blast on the day that it came out and they just dumped it
all. He has this thing where he like
draws a line in the sand on some token and then it lasts for like
a month and then he just dumps it all.
It was the same with blah, same with blah, same with friend.
It's always like weird NFT style coins that he he like, tries to
corner seemingly and then just kind of like peeks out of them
for a massive loss. It's like, it's like rinse,
repeat for this stuff. I don't really get it.
Yeah. I don't get it either.
All funded by the pre sale and he launched a few months back so
maybe look out for the for the next one.
He might be, probably. He might.
Need it here. Well, I think that's the
majority we saw the Tether news and not not super exciting.
Well perhaps tradable I guess just quickly on it.
So Tether reported their quarterly earnings.
They've got 5.2 billion in profits for the first half of
2024. They're holding.
Let me see, they've got 4. Point 7 billion in Bitcoin,
they've got 98 billion in in U.S.
Treasuries, U.S. debt holdings, which which outpaces like
leading nation states, like they've got more than Germany
has. So like staggering figures.
I think what makes it interesting, I guess is like
circles looking to IPO soon. So you know, one of their
competitors, as I understand it, circle rumoured at a $5 billion
valuation. So I feel like for those who you
know, have seen the numbers tethers putting up, interesting
to to see, you know, a potential, you know, made out,
made a play there. So Tether 5 billion.
Tether is a company. Yeah, go ahead.
This in one year. 1/2 a year tether theoretically could be
worth like over 100 billion very easily.
You know it's making net profit annualized at over 10 billion,
like 1111 billion right there. You would normally value a
company like this. I mean bank banks are often
valued slightly differently, but.
You could, theoretically. Value this like easily 10 * 10
times net earnings, right? I don't know what the what is
the PE ratio for banking stocks average but 13.5 Well, so yeah,
you mean this is 125 billion? Yeah, this is probably 100.
Billion dollar company, 11.25 actually.
So yeah, like I think easily they've crushed it.
The business is insane running a stable coin.
It's absolutely an insane business.
So it was actually interesting. Another company Elixir, I don't
know if you've seen that they'll always say a competitor to the
the Athena coin and that's sort of massive increase in in in
TVLI think in just in just the first few days, this idea of,
you know, you you can short the the futures against owning the
spot and then you get kind of synthetic dollar on the back of
it. So tethers business model, it's
everywhere. There's no way they can IPI
don't know who the Hell's going to allow Tether to IPO.
But theoretically. They've got an incredibly
valuable company, yes. And it raises the question, so
they've got 114 billion market cap, the USDT rather has that
114 billion, USDC has 33 billion.
So we'll we'll call it, you know, 30%.
So do they have do they have $30 billion upside if they you know,
look to integrate more tethers model or that I actually don't
know that how it how circle operates if they operate in the
same fashion as Tether, if they do the same withholdings and
U.S. Treasuries or not not sure if
you've I think they just. They just own, I think they just
own treasuries. So and I'm not sure if it's only
treasuries or they have to have just cash in hand as well.
Whereas tethers mix is is a little bit more mixed.
Let's say it's it's got some Bitcoin, they've got some
commercial loans, but the vast majority is U.S.
Treasuries for sure. But you know, Tether seemingly
might not be possible. I mean, I don't think they've
got a license under the under the Mika rules yet, right.
So there's a lot of talk about Tether not really being
available to trade in the in Europe.
And obviously there's there's a lot of questions about it in the
US. My honest view is that Ted is
going to probably dominate the the back door trade of dollars
going forward. I think, I think it's, it's
probably going to be more on the illicit side than than other
stable points. Yeah.
And we'll see if more if the their competitors who comply are
able to to reach that size likely a more of an uphill
battle. Well, we were on the horn.
I think some some good chat here this morning.
A little bit of a slower day, but still some good
conversation. Anything else on your list here
this morning? No, no, you're going to CTO are.
You going to CTO a coin? Are we going to see?
Yeah, everyone look out.
For Frank space tonight, I'm jumping in as a special guest.
We're going to CTO a new coin, a new coin together.
So look out for that one. That that's a joke, folks.
I am usually asleep by 9:30 PM, so I missed the demon at most
where all the where all the fun happens in the meme streets.
And then I just see that the bloody aftermath or usually it's
actually usually pretty good when I wake up around 5:30 and
then it it starts dumping when everyone else wakes up.
Rather, it's tough to run a. Coin, I'm telling you that it's
not easy. I do not.
Indeed I do not indeed that job. It feels very difficult,
especially on on the red days, but hopefully some green greener
pastures are in front of us. May I know this has been great
folks. Everyone thank you for tuning
in. We will catch you tomorrow.
Froak is back, should be a fun Oh robot spins are back as well.
Should be a fun Friday show. Catch us tomorrow live at 10:00
AM Eastern. Until then, have a great day.