All right, good morning. Good morning, GMDM folks.
Welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
Today is February 11th, 1.5. It is snowing here in Chicago.
It's another cold, Gray day as winter drags on.
Crypto markets feeling a little cold and Gray, at least in the
trenches. But there are some signs of
life. We're going to break it all down
on today's show. I'm excited to get into it with
you. Farouq is out today.
He is gallivanting around Paris. But we've got Mando on with us
still. Mando GM, how you doing?
I'm doing fantastic. How are you?
I'm doing good. Just another day of our crypto
majors trading as stable coins, but nice to see some green
candles out there on the AI board.
I'm excited to get into that with you and see if maybe the
bottom is in, folks. I think we're just going to dive
right into it. Probably a tighter show here
today. What are we talking about?
We're going to start with the market report, some ongoing
chop. We've got more ETFs coming.
We've got states continuing to pile into these strategic
reserve bills. We've got breaking news this
morning, unit chain from Uniswap that is live.
We're going to talk about Dave Portnoy's continued roller
coaster of pump and dumps and the jail stool token story
protocol announcing their TGE social air drops tied to Kaido
and they keep rolling in. Then we're going to get into AI.
The leaders seeing mega rebounds.
Is this one for real or just a head fake?
And then perhaps a couple NFT headlines before we close things
out. Before we get in, a few shout
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Shout out to them as always. Manda, if you're ready, let's
get into it. Can you dig it?
GM everyone, how are you all doing?
Feels as though we are slightly greener on the day.
Bitcoin hanging out in nannies. Well nicely I guess it's
slightly lower actually 97 K, but a lot of the trenches stuff
I think we come up with a lot that's higher.
Memes and AI coins have definitely had a bit of a
bounce. Looks like majors are kind of
unchanged. The biggest piece of news today
on macro is that Jerome Powell is giving some form of testimony
to the house and probably will be questioned on his his plans
for policy. I'm seeing some light headlines
around that already. So it does feel as though we're
going to see, yeah, Powell reiterates.
No need to hurry to adjust rates.
So he seems like he's being relatively hawkish, so or at
least he's being more data dependent.
I don't really know how the market's going to take that.
But it does feel as though that's you're going to see a lot
of headlines at around that for the next two days.
He's he's, he's there for a while.
As as I kind of said already, it does feel as though we've seen a
bit of a drop in Bitcoin dominance back down to kind of
61% area. And that's meant that a lot of
these beaten up coins have really rallied.
So coins like AI16Z have gone from a low of around 300 million
to now around 600 million ARK from a low of around 1:50 to 320
today. And then a bunch of other movers
kind of in the AI space, less aggressive, but bounces and
things like FARC, COIN, Griffane, yeah, kind of a range
of them right now. So we have the AI agent market
market cap back up to around 8 billion, which is which is nice.
It's kind of some of the, I would say some of the leaders
are kind of back to where they were at the start of the year.
So like ARC was around 300 million at the start of the year
and it's it's back there now. I think Farcorn AI16Z is
definitely lower, but but there's a few of those where you
know, they've they've kind of recovered slightly here.
We've seen a bouncing against some of the revenue generating
protocols. So Hype Ray Jupiter all had
decent days. They've given back a little bit
in the last hour or so, but those continue to be like one of
the things I think people jump at first whenever there's some
some strength back in majors. So we'll see how that one
develops in terms of like institutional adoption.
Some news, the only real 1 here is that that Bloomberg came out
yesterday and said that basically we're going to get a
Litecoin, XRP, DOGE, Solana ETF all likely to get approved in,
in their, in their view, they had, they put like a 90%
probability on some of these approvals.
So they're very, very confident we're going to get a range of
different altcoin ETFs and they could be relatively soon.
So in that world, it does. You've had strength in, in, in a
few of these different alts. It looks like Grayscale actually
applied for an ADA ETF too. So ADA was Cardano was one of
the best performers yesterday. But yeah, I think people are
getting a little bit more bullish on the idea because get
some nearer term approval. Some of the major ETFs we did
have, again, Solana continues to kind of dominate in terms of
revenue versus ETH, gas fees plummeting to like a five year
loan. There's a lot of debate on the
timeline about how L2 should be acting in this world, kind of
fights between arbitrary and base and mega ETH and all these
guys all having commentary on the role of L twos here, which
is going to be an interesting one.
Vitalik kind of came out and said, you know, they should
align themselves with ETH a little bit more, but there's
nothing, there's no incentive or contract for that to happen.
So there's a little bit of a no, a schism, let's say at the heart
of right now, which continues to kind of fester and there's a lot
of fighting going on the timeline.
But yeah, we'll see how that one resolves.
It actually was was probably the best performing major over the
last 24 hours. It looks like in terms of macro
news, stocks have kind of been OK.
They bounced back yesterday. The NASDAQ still is still below
20 K and it looks like today we're a little bit lower just
because of of Powell's comments. But nothing, nothing crazy.
You did have Elon attempting to potentially buy open AI
yesterday, which Sam Altman came out and said no thank you.
Sam Altman, I don't know if he he can actually say no thank you
in that scenario. He's not like the shareholder,
all the, the controlling shareholders already know if
he's the person that can even say no thank you.
But basically there was a bid by Elon and a consortium for 100
billion for open AI. Obviously Elon's been in a fight
with them about their their move to being a for profit.
And I would imagine there's some sort of understanding there
that, you know, if you accept this bid, I'll drop the lawsuit.
If you if you don't, I'm going to continue to be very, very
aggressive in trying to stop open AI moving towards being a
being a for profit, which I'm sure a lot of people are kind of
annoyed about. I think that was that was kind
of it in terms of macro meta meta stock is on this 16 day
winning streak, one of the longest winning streaks on the
stock and the biggest for over like 30 years right now.
So it's been very interesting. And at the same time, Tesla's
sinking. So this meta versus Tesla things
going on in in left curve stuff. I'm sure Tyler, you can get to
it, but it felt like yesterday was just dominated by Dave
Portnoy. And I think a lot people are
getting a little bit tired, but there was obviously that stuff
about Kaito which you say, which is which is gaining a little bit
of traction I guess with the yappers.
And it feels as though, like I said, AI has been, has been the
main winners. Yeah, no, I think that's spot
on. That's that's a nice round up
there of the headlines. It just jumped out to me looking
at the Sam Altman rebuttal from Elon.
If folks didn't realize this, Elon changed his handle on X to
hairy balls, which also sent the left curve market into a a
flurry of several tokens launching.
I think I saw one get to the 20, 20 million or so, just this is
the guy who who's leading the Department of Government
efficiency and auditing the entire United States federal
government and then just changing his handle to hairy
balls right in the middle of all of it.
So that was a little comedic. Maybe we zoom out for a second.
I want to get into some of the the more detailed headlines, but
just kind of curious. We've been talking macro a
little bit more, just kind of just the the ongoing chop.
I saw KBM say he's short. He's conservatively short right
now. Oh.
KBM Short is he? On majors, yes, said he he's not
in size that he's going to get blown out by any Loomis tweet.
But then on on the flip side, so we've got Bob, one of my more
favorite macro TA guys and he he's laying out what bit what a
Bitcoin four year cycle could look like if it follows
historical trends. Again, I think we've talked on
this show, we're not necessarily those who align with the the
four year cycle trend at this point.
And Bob doesn't really either, but several folks, huge cohorts
of this market still do seem to kind of live and live and die.
But the four year cycle. So I thought it was interesting
enough to perhaps just pull it up if folks didn't see this.
So, so basically his view is we're just kind of starting to
get into this new weekly cycle. He sees Bitcoin marching up to
about 150K if it follows previous cycles by May cool off
in the summer and then a March over 200 by by Q4.
So a little bit of bull hopium for for folks here on a cloudy
Gray Tuesday. I could easily see that, yeah.
I, I, I think that the, the thing that gets us out of this
range is, is talk about the Bitcoin Reserve actually coming
into, into fruition. And I think that's probably six
months from from when he got inaugurated.
So probably like June, July time.
We, we, we could start to see that you may see a like a salon
ETF approved before that or some old COIN ETF approved before
that feels as though very different ETF issuers seem
fairly bullish on that. And you could see some
resolution and on all these ongoing court cases between the
SEC and, and, and exchanges, which I think would be
relatively bullish, but nothing crazy.
But the thing that gets us out of this range is that, and
normally you hear basically like very strong rumours about it
like a month beforehand, like we have with the ETF, right.
So my, my guess is that we start to rally into into that and,
and, and that that probably takes us to a similar sort of
timeline like May June, I can imagine is when we break out of
this. So until then, I think there's a
bit of chop suey in chops in this sideways bitcoins.
This has been one of the the stranger situations right now is
that normally when bitcoins going sideways, normally people
are gambling on all coins and you know, they're, they're
betting and you start to see, you know, we had a huge, huge
meme coin run in a period where Bitcoin went sideways last last
year, we had huge moves in and similarly, now we have AI coins
and meme coins and that hasn't happened.
They're in fact, they're all down a lot.
So I continue to kind of like some of these stories here.
Maybe I'm like a a broken record and saying that I, I think some
of these are, are due a decent bounce like I did go more
defensive in some of these like revenue producing protocols.
But if it does feel as though some of this stuff, particularly
the utility AI coins are bouncing, are bouncing quite
strongly. The FARC coins plus AI16Z seems
to have been the strongest ones. You, you mentioned even BBB
yesterday. It's on like a 3X from that low.
I can't imagine people are just going to sit around and do
nothing for four months. Yeah, I totally agree.
It's I'm trying to be very cautious because I tried to call
bottom here on the AI cycle and we saw a little rebound and then
everything fell another 50%. Is the forever bottom in.
I don't know if if we see a macro turn down if Bitcoin back
goes back to 92 or 88 K like we're probably going to revisit
the lows on a lot of these. But it does start to look like
the leaders are catching bids again, which is, which is nice
to see. A lot of them are are are
showing this chart, which again, it's hard to we've already we've
seen recoveries 3 or 4 Times Now on the way down.
So it is hard to get hyperbold up, but far coin up 50% off the
bottom. I think Arc is arguably the most
impressive of all these, mostly because you you led the show
with it. It's kind of back to where it
was to to start the year. So it's not, it's not down 80%
from high. It's really, you know. 40 I
mean, it's interesting because like we've said this before, but
AI16Z and ARC are very similar projects.
They are very similar projects, except just one of them is on is
on Rust. And yet AI16Z got decimated and
ARC is kind of part of, I mean, that probably shows you how much
like the vibes affected that project, whereas ARC has managed
to like keep the vibes relatively healthy and it's kind
of gone back to, yeah, basically.
I mean, I think when this stuff really started moving, it was
like the 30th of December and ARC was at 2:50 then.
So it's actually up versus like when everything else started
moving. That was when AI 16 ZI think
changed its tokenomics, right? It was like the 30th of December
and that's when like everything started gapping or maybe the
last week of December. AI16Z is down about 30% still
from from or 40% since the 30th of December.
And FARC coin fart coin looks it was it was at 9:50 and now it's
at 6:20. So assuming that those are like
the three big ones, at least on Seoul, that's a decent move.
Like we're we're kind of within range that you couldn't have
been that wrecked unless you called it late virtual's.
Is it really did kind of peak on the 3rd or it peaked on the 3rd
of January actually at 5 billion there.
That's the one that's that's really been hurt and obviously
that's now moved to Seoul yesterday.
What do you, what do you make of that now?
Like do you think every major base coin seemingly has kind of
moved to Solana, right? They have, which I think has
weakened the case for virtuals. We've we've shared the virtuals
dashboard before, I don't need to share them again.
This, the number of daily launches have effectively gone
to 0. That was a big part of the run
to $5. People were looking at the
revenue it was generating and then now it kind of stopped
generating revenue. I think the team is still well
positioned as a leader in this new crypto AI sector, but it's
almost like one where you kind of have to separate perhaps the
team from, from the token here. And like objectively, it's just
not bouncing back as strongly as the others.
I think we, we, we, we can see that pretty clearly in the
chart. And I think the move to Salon
kind of weakens it, right, because part of their
differentiator was that they were on ETH base and.
That's a good point. Yeah, it's a good point.
Now that they're on Salon, they're they're playing in a
more competitive playing field. Yeah, that's the Yeah, that's
the thing. Like you move to Seoul and the
liquidity is there, but it's a fickle beast.
You know, you can come to Solana and and yeah, yeah, you might
see more people buying stuff, but it feels as though it can
you can get out competed by some of the other Solana coins now
quite quite quickly. I guess the other main
competitors would be like Top Hat and Baifu and all all those
other ones. So maybe it does make it a
little bit more difficult. It does feel as though, like the
Virtuals team from people who are in the space, they're very
highly respected, so maybe they have a few things up their
sleeve, I don't know. Yeah, and they're meeting with
the XA, the Twitter AI team at Twitter HQ.
I mean that that meeting alone feels pretty big, right?
I don't think a whole lot of teams would be able to to land
that. So I think there's there's
reasons to be still be optimistic.
Nothing's jumping out to me and I wonder when we will let's see
folks start to capitulate back in.
I don't think we're there yet, but arc is up or AI16Z is up
over 100% off the bottom. Now arc arc is up 100% off the
bottom also. And you just look at this
candle, there's folks who are like, OK, I'm fine missing the
1st 10 to 20% move off the bottom.
I want to, I want to make sure that the the reversal is there.
If you miss these updates, you miss a lot.
Like this thing's up 50% today. It's up since the week started.
Yeah. I mean, it's up 90%.
Yeah, look, I think, I think that's kind of it.
It's, it's just like one of these days that's Solana for
you. Like you miss these days, you
are having to buy some pretty crazy candles when stuff gets
moving. I don't think this sector's
going anywhere. I think the maybe the, you know,
where it was a month ago, where it was like this is going to
dominate all sectors. I still think this is going to
be the strongest sector of 2025. But it it's clear that like it's
become particularly the utility coins a little bit more like
people have got to. They've they've maybe got to
show a little bit more utility than than they kind of had
before just because there was so much supply of them and so many
different people coming in. So yeah, I don't think I'll be
as parabolic. Let's say the, the bounce back
this time. I, I think you'll get a chance
to buy these coins again is basically what I'm saying.
That's my gut. I I think that's fair, yeah.
And ARC is a little bit different.
I kind of want to put it aside because it it didn't move in
line with some of the others. But like if you if we pull up
the AI16Z chart, it's hard to see this, it's going to be
shaped back to $2.40. Yeah, that that that's, that
seems like a very difficult one. Can, can we, can we go through
just to change topics slightly here, Kaito, can you just like,
can you just top down explain to everyone why all these guys are
obsessed with Kaito and why we should all be paying attention
to it? Because I am not.
And yeah, like I know you know, the, the type all the people
that were in AI have now like moved to Kaito and there's
clearly going to be some sort of all the AirDrop farming guys are
on Kaito and I just don't even know what what I'm meant to be
doing here. Kaito obviously I've used as a
platform. I've I'm I used.
I have a monthly subscription to it, but I don't know what this
is. Yeah.
So I think for starters, the reason that Kaido kind of caught
fire and start getting attention on crypto Twitter were for these
new attention mindshare heat maps that they developed.
It's on their platform. You can see just big bright
green squares, red squares for those who are gaining mindshare,
those who are losing mindshare, what was perhaps, you know, a
little different and what made them the next iteration of, you
know, the tension measuring was that they were beyond just
influencers. So there's an influencer
component, there is a protocol component.
So you can see here, you know, how Kairo compares to Open Sea
compares to Pump Fun. And they also have tokens.
So you can see how different tokens I can compare with each
other in different categories. So I think this was really the
first time that we had seen those 3 buckets kind of bubble
up in such an easy to comprehend manner.
And like looking at their dashboards, they're incredibly
clean. It is very easy to just quickly
look at this and understand. So like I'm, I'm looking at
different leaderboards. I can see the AI agent
leaderboard, I can see crypto and AI or just broader CT.
And then from there you've got individual projects.
So you can dive in and see, OK, who's talking the most about
mega ETH? And they're going to have their
own rankings for that. The the reason this has started
to matter, there's a handful, but one now projects are
starting to reward their top yappers specifically.
So Berra chain came out, they had a social AirDrop component
as a part of their AirDrop campaign.
Anyone who was talking about Berra received somewhere between
6:00 or 600 or 700 tokens. It's $3500, a pretty significant
AirDrop there. Anime, anime coin from the Azuki
team, they just rolled out their social AirDrop yesterday that
the top folks who were talking about anime received some
tokens. I saw folks get $500 to $1000.
We had folks who were able to monetize selling their boats
that that that's kind of went by the wayside.
So I wouldn't really focus about that.
And then there's just folks who are in general trying to farm
yaps because they they are bullish on, yeah, Kaido doing
their own token drop down the line and they're they're giving
out 25,000 the apps per day. So you can do some back of the
napkin math on what you think the total number of the apps
will be if they do a three month campaign, how that might convert
to a token if they give out 10 percent, 20%, that type of
thing. So that's where you've seen the
back of the napkin math. We've seen folks calling for
$100 a yap. I think that's kind of out to
launch, but single digit dollar per app, couple dollars per app,
I think very realistic, perhaps as high as like in the five to
10 range. I don't want to hold my breath,
but that's why people have been farming it.
And the reason like so we've had bread on the show.
The reason that projects care is it gives you the social graph of
who is talking about your product the most.
Those are the people you can you can reward.
Those are the people you can lean into.
And it's also a carrot for you to say, hey, if you know you get
to the top 20, the top 100, we will reward you as well.
So it's just it's an easier way to kind of connect and reward
the folks who are not a spokesperson.
Haven't other projects done this before though?
Like I know like Luna Crush had a version of this whereas like
you were like the top influencer for a certain project.
I've I've seen that before and so did cookie.
They've had something similar right Where they have like your
top influencers for a project. Why is this one now like the
one? Is it just because people are
using this more than like, do you think this is going to be
like they're going to have the monopoly on on air drops because
of of that? I think it's just their reach
and their popularity. Right.
And this the fact that the the folks who are largely at the top
of their leaderboard are also talking about it all the time.
So like folks like ICO, Bread, Wally, these guys, not only are
they at the top of the leaderboard, they're also
talking about Kaido. So it's kind of a.
Yeah, that's the thing I don't really get because some of these
guys I see at the top, I'm like, I don't, I don't know if I've
even heard of you, but maybe that's just me.
Or is it like you have to get the top of the to get to the top
of the Yap leaderboard? You kind of have to be talking
about them as well. Like why I know Peter, for
example, Peter, Peter, Peter Pan, he's he works with, I know,
I know him like locally, but he's like 15th on this.
And I'm like, I wouldn't have put him 15th, for example.
So like, what? How can people game this?
Like you just have to talk as much about Kaito as possible.
Well, I, I think when you zoom out, so this is the six month
rankings. I think this is a pretty
accurate list of who you think would be some of the top shared
folks in CT. You've got a XPT is new, but
Mert, Vitalik Ansum, Jesse from Bass Murad, Brian Armstrong,
like that feels like the right top 8 in some order just from
the reach that I've seen on X. Now where it changes is if you
zoom in and like, OK, like Wally was number 2 on like ICO was
number four in the past week or so.
And the way folks are gaming it to effectively, hey, you just
talk a lot. There's a little bit of like
reply, reply kind of similar to like Frintech 33, all that.
It's just sharing relevant content on a variety of
different crypto Twitter topics. So basically it's like keyword.
So like you're talking about crypto AI, you've got the crypto
AI words there. If you're talking about tickers
and you've got the tickers in your posts, it's just it's all
that. There's a little bit of a game
to it and some people just aren't playing the game and
they're not going to score as well, right?
Now I'm just I'm just trying to judge this versus the other one,
fantasy top. Like I felt like the fancy top
leaderboards. I I kind of felt like that I
understood this, that leaderboard a lot better than
than this one. So I'm just trying to work out
how to. They're different.
I think fancy top is is pure. How much?
How many impressions are you getting per follower count
effectively? So you and I got the same number
of impressions. I'm going to be ahead of you
because you've got more followers than me, whereas Kaido
is more. They've got a secret sauce algo
and it depends on which topics you're talking about.
Video's not rewarded and I think retweets aren't counting as
much. So there's like a there's a
little bit of nuance to it. Wow.
So. Video's not rewarded.
I don't it, it has not been. I think they're trying to figure
out how to change that. But that makes sense because
they they do like keyword text scraping.
So how are they going to scrape a video?
No, I just thought for like engagement they might they might
script a video. And that's why folks like
Clemente have been like wrecked by this, because Clemente gets
all his engagement via these videos just aren't getting
picked up by this at all. Yeah, Yeah, yeah.
OK, cool. All right.
So if you want to make money on this, is it too late or what?
What about the NFTS? What?
Why do people, why do those just keep on going higher?
The NFTS are tied to the AirDrop, so I think folks think
that they will have Oh my God, they're 80s now.
Wow. So this is arguably one of the
best performing NFTS of 2025. Folks think they're going to get
a block of tokens for this. They also just got rewarded with
a block of votes. So if monetizing votes becomes a
thing, again, folks who own these entities might be able to
get that. I think as a call to action.
The reality is it like if you want to grow your ex account,
like you should be kind of doing this already.
You should pick niches and try to become like a thought leader
in that and share content around it.
And now Kaido is just bucketing that and making it easier for
folks to discover you. So I just say just start, start
creating content. Find a project or a sector that
you like and care about, just grind it.
And then if you really want to play the game, you can get into
the reply reply stuff. But that that's a little bit
less interesting to me and I don't think that has legs, but
that would be my advice. So what this really now means is
that for any new AirDrop, people are going to be talking about it
just an unbelievable amount. Correct, I think there was also
some negative feedback about the anime leaderboard that it was
folks who didn't really care about anime.
Like they were clearly just grinding anime content for free
apps. This kind of feels like a moment
where I say I'm tired like you know like my timeline is going
to be full of like you should buy an anime coin is going to be
the next big thing. Anime coin drops 90% and and
some people get like 2K worth of anime coin for it.
My timeline is going to be trash if this continues.
Every single air drops going to be hyped to oblivion.
Yeah, we'll see. I, I, I think that's a fair
reaction. At the same time I I don't I
haven't seen my timeline get totally destroyed with with
people. Yeah, now they've incentivized
people. You're right.
So now the Bear Chain and the anime, perhaps that that has
changed a little bit, but so. What are the new what are the
new air drops are meant to be yapping about Tyler?
It's a good question. Mega ETH.
For sure. Oh.
My goodness, I'm a mega ETH influencer.
I'm moving on from Radium. I am now the number one mega ETH
influencer across all geographies.
Yeah, yeah, looks like I. He broke it.
I broke Kaido here for a second, but yeah, meggie's going to be a
big one on that note. So Mega ETH did start there.
Let's get my apps in mega ETH. Their their day one mint for the
for guaranteed starts today. First come first serve is
tomorrow. It's going to be RNG.
It doesn't look like they shared who won.
So folks are going to have to look out for that and perhaps
just be ready to mint tomorrow. But there's going to be a lot of
demand for those. So so go check that out.
We had bread guy on the show last week.
If folks missed that, maybe catch the the replay there.
Maybe time for a thread, You know what I mean?
Look out for my thread later on Mega Ethan.
Everything that you need to know with a lot of hashes.
Kill me now. And tickers, I think we, I think
we went around the whole kind of pretty well.
Let's talk about the Portnoy stuff here.
I think people are still interested in that.
I don't know how much longer we'll be talking about it.
We talked about the price action yesterday because this was all
kind of breaking during the show.
He did his Space or his David Day Trader show and basically
called all of crypto Twitter mutants and he was donkey on
Nick choose rich Nick. And then he said that he might
still do his own coin market did not like that.
Sold from 100 million to about 30 and then kind of chopped
rebound and got back up to 5060 partially because he just keeps
day trading and kind of running pump and dumps if I'm just, you
know, being objective in what they are.
So it started with this Fartnoi coin he bought, I forget the
exact numbers, a huge chunk of it at a very low market cap.
Tweeted about it token up running like 20 or 30 million.
I was pretty shocked actually. Let's let's pull up the Fartnoi
chart at, at how many people we're still copy training him
after we, we knew his, his MO here.
So yeah. So this thing, he bought it
around here. He tweeted about it like right
here and then ended up going to, I mean, it was at 15,000,000 for
a decent chunk of time and looks like it peaked over 20 or so.
And then unsurprisingly, it kind of just speed around to to zero
there. Stats put out a tweet kind of
summarizing what he's been doing.
But yesterday it looks like Portnoy made he realized
$550,000 of profit, effectively pump dumping Fartnoy, fart
stool, Peach and and rug stool. So how do you That's why I
didn't understand. He did sell some.
He sold jail. Oh, no, sorry.
There's a different one. Fart stool, Peach and rug stool.
OK, Yeah. This is a weird thing.
OK. Everyone I think knows.
So this is this is almost just like going down to the casino
and it's just a game of like, when is he going to sell?
And hopefully I'll get out before he sells.
Like he recognizes that he is just like a casino at this stage
of a crash game, right? It's a crash game with Dave
Portnoy, who decides when the crash is going to happen.
And I think everyone's OK with it.
Do you know what I mean? Like, are you?
Yes, he's pumping and dumping. He knows he's pumping and
dumping. Everyone else knows he's pumping
and dumping and everyone's playing the game.
So like, I'm just kind of sitting here looking at it and
going like, like, if you want to play the game and it's, you
know, which token is Dave going to buy today in the Crash game?
Maybe they can. It's like, it's kind of sad
because it's weird because people talk about meme coins and
they talk about like, you know, we had something real going on.
Like, it does feel as though we've now just like completely,
we have completely gone down to just the bare bones of of Crash
games. But people want to play those
games, right? The Daily Runner, you can't hold
a coin for more than an hour. Well, Dave Portnoy is going to
do his Daily Crash game. So I think this can continue if
he wants to continue it. I think I think it can continue
continuingly. Like people will just be like,
OK, well, we're going to play. We're going to play it with him
again today. Maybe the game gets a little bit
more boring with time, but maybe maybe it doesn't and maybe just
keeps on selling them all and buying.
Maybe jail still becomes the casino token of, of, of Dave
Portnoy. Do you know what I mean?
Like. That's the that's the lone
remaining bull case for it actually, because he kind of
said he was going to he was going to be rotating the profits
back to jail. So I don't know that he's
rotated all these profits back. I think stat says that in the
post. I'd have to look into it.
I think you're you're dead on. This is kind of just stripped
away some of the like I'm blanking on the right word.
But but the imagery that we had around this space about like
people believing in something and communities forming and he's
like, no, this is just pure rocket game and huge swaths of
the market. So like, yeah, we're going to
play rocket game with you, Dave. Yeah, that's what they're doing.
It's like, I was shocked at this yesterday.
So like the first few coins he did, he would tweet about it and
then sell within like one or two minutes.
So he he's mixed up his style. So he bought this one, He
tweeted it and then he bought more and then he held onto it a
little bit longer. So he he's changing the game.
He's. Changing it up, you know, it's a
different game today. Like he might hold it for a
minute. He might.
I think he knows what he's doing.
Like there, there's one Reed that he just has.
He's not thinking about this and he's just flying by the seat of
his pants. There's another Reed that like
he does know what he's doing. Oh, look, anyone with like five
brain cells knows what they're doing here.
Oh, I bought the coin. It's up like he like for this
actually to be in my in my opinion, like not immoral.
He has to understand what he's doing Like he has to understand
that like he's not just he hasn't just got an infinite
money glitch. He's just opened up a casino of
a crash game of which he is the game, the game master.
And that game may stop after a week before I get bored and move
on to a new game. But like that game that he's set
up, I don't know if it's necessarily immoral, if he's
just if he's just doing that and he's saying this is the game and
I will be buying, I'll be buying this casino token with the
profits. But if he if he honestly thinks
he is trading, then then yeah, that's, that's just like you
have to have less than five brain cells.
I went through like the full cycle of emotion, emotional
responses to what he was doing. Early on I thought it was
perhaps a little bit more immoral, but now I'm kind of
with you that like this is the game.
Maybe the first, first or second time you didn't know what the
rules of the game were and now we know the rules of the game.
It's like if you're playing like you're playing the slot machine,
you're playing the rocket game and you're going to try to get
out. What shocked me yesterday was I
I saw this, I didn't buy in, I was just watching it.
When he first bought in, this thing had about 1000 holders and
then it shot to 20,000 holders in about 15 to 30 minutes.
So it's not like a couple of people are are playing the game.
20,000 people are playing the Rocket game along with Dave
Feel. Like the the move maybe that
every time he play, he buys another coin.
You're meant to buy jail stool, right?
Because because then it's not the rocket game.
Like you know, he's going to buy that one in the future at some
stage. So.
That was part of the the, the the game theory yesterday, yeah.
There's not much volatility there really, is there?
So maybe people are just getting bored with it.
I think people are starting to get a little bored with it and
it's just not his bias. Just aren't pumping it enough
for whatever reason. Kind of reminds you of like wolf
game. Do you know what I mean?
It's like, do you want to own a wolf or do you want to own a
sheep? And like the sheep are fun as
the game continues and maybe they can go up and then like
everyone's like, oh, the wolf is making this much yield every
single day. And then one day everyone just
stops playing wolf game. So yeah, I don't know.
But that's what I guess everyone's continue can continue
for like a few more days, weeks. Like whenever the game gets
boring, we move on. Yeah, it's aided by the fact
that a lot of the like trenches influencers are, are telling
their followers that we are in an aggressive rotator market,
that you shouldn't hold anything for more than a few hours.
I love that tweet from Razmere yesterday.
This is why I say not to hold coins long term.
Like the coin had lasted for like 12 hours.
And like rightfully or wrongfully.
I liked it if. That's what this market is.
Then why not just go play rocket game with Dave?
Yeah. Right, it's the exact same
thing, but at least you know who's who the it's Dave run the
show and not the Cabal, you know, behind half of these
tokens at this point. And perhaps you know a little
bit more. You can just try to get a read
on what he might be doing. So I don't know that that's the
state of the the trenches right now.
We will. We'll certainly see how long it
lasts. I think that's most of the
stories from yesterday. Just a quick roundup of a few
others. So this story protocol, they're
going to do their IP token TGE that's coming on Thursday.
Notably this IP token on on Bibit premarket.
So Bibit is one of their listing partners.
It was trading at 375 this morning, which I believe equates
to 3.75 billion FTB I. Mean we're not going to play the
FTB game with story post code. This thing has been done like 10
different funding rounds and let's see, let's see where the
chips lie a week after launch. Chip lies.
We'll see if they reward any other Kaido yappers as well.
Time for a thread. Time for that.
We are going to roast them to the ground.
Crypto Twitter, this is your warning protocols.
Give us the tokens or else. Oh my goodness.
I don't know if I can deal with, I don't think I can deal with
five months of people telling me that Kaito is the next big thing
and then threads about different air drops as we just go sideways
and then when the air drop comes out, it drops 90% and we move on
to the next one. Yeah, we're we're starting to
see that set up. Let's hope it doesn't last like
that. The other story we talked about
AI, but Reid Hoffman, Co founder of LinkedIn, endorsed the Y&E
project yesterday. So if folks aren't familiar,
Y&E, Matt Schlit is the founder behind that is an AI agent
that's auditing all scientific research and they have this this
Y&E token component as well. And re commenting that he thinks
this is a great use case of not only an AI agent, but the the
token to provide a tangible public good.
So I thought that was an interesting one and it it just
does highlight a that there people are like serious people
are paying attention to this, right?
Now, yeah, I would say that's that's true.
I mean, Reed Hoffman is, is, I would say he's like less in
vogue right now because obviously he's like way more
Democrat and and, you know, various stories about him.
But the but yeah, it's interesting to see that like
maybe crypto is becoming a bit more accepted from the Silicon
Valley elite. Maybe I would not have expected
him to be looking at this project.
Yeah, so we saw a nice pump. I'm actually, I need to dive
into this myself. I'm not exactly clear like where
the token comes in and like why? Let me start you right there.
It's time for a thread. Here's why.
Reid Hoffman endorsing The Wire, Reid.
So we, yeah, I mean, off the bottom it was 24.
So I did about two X off the bottom and sold off a little
bit. Not not a huge surprise.
Yeah. It's kind of similar to like an
arc chart ran a little bit later than some of the others.
The exact same pullback. Now we'll see if it's able to.
Is this AI though? It felt a bit more like it felt
a bit more Desai as a coin, right?
Oh, it is Desai. Yeah.
Wow. Yeah, it's a Desai AI agent.
That's what it is. It's been to like reward people
for for like getting better scientific papers.
But you know, like I said, doesn't really matter at this
stage. We don't really talk about Desai
after the mosquito experiments. What happened?
To those those those those coins
like the biggest D side coins. Let's let's.
I think I sold my watch list. Let's.
Oh you still have a watch list for them top D side?
So RSC was a real 1. I think that's the one tied to
like the Coinbase background. RSC is is the is the one that I
I felt like was was legit all right.
What was the one that was like named after a drug?
Then and Eurolithin, those were the two ones.
Yeah, Jesus. This one went to like 200
million. Yeah, yeah.
That was not That was not a pretty lot.
It's down seven. Wow.
Yeah, those are some nasty wigs. I'll.
I'll, I'll pat myself on the back.
As soon as the mosquitoes died, I sold these tokens and it was
the, it's my best story of the year.
Yeah. So euro had 100 million.
That was that was P, that was P slopping.
I felt like when these coins started coming out.
These were a little bit more large, which I think did
actually hurt perhaps some of the more real D side tokens out
there. Like.
Like research coin, right? Like that's more of a realistic,
like that's a. This one is, is similar to this
Y&E coin and that it like rewards for better scientific
research. I think it's a peer review.
It rewards people for peer review.
I'm pretty sure that's how it's built, right?
Because it's like an issue about peer review and, and the fact
that like no one does it. So it's meant to be a coin,
which like makes people do peer review better.
It's it's probably interesting. I don't know if it's like worth
wow. It's worth 400.
Wow, that that seems high to me from what it is.
But like, yeah, I guess, I guess 500 million.
I don't even know why I'm trying to make sense of that.
But but yeah, that one does have some legit aims for it in that
it's been to improve scientific research by giving various
different people that would peer review a paper like incentivized
maybe that moves to AI. Like maybe, yeah, maybe maybe AI
peer review is kind of where we're going actually does feel
like. Yeah, Well, that makes sense.
Yeah. You used deep research at all?
Yeah, Amanda. What is deep research?
Sorry. Deep Research is the new agent
from Open AI that is meant to be like your college level research
analyst who will give you a full like 5 page research report on
on your topic of choice. I haven't, but I've heard a lot
about it, you know, because I've heard a lot of people are doing
it, associating, associating it with medical stuff.
So like people have who have what was it?
I was listening to somebody who was talking about how maybe his
wife had had cancer and they, they'd asked, they'd uploaded
all her data and they'd like asked it should she be doing
radio, radio radiotherapy after chemo.
And it presented A5, like A5 page report on that.
And I think that that's pretty, that's pretty unique.
That's pretty cool. Like it does, It does seem to me
that even if you like you prefer, which I think most
people would agree with at this stage, like that you're speaking
to a doctor about your medical advice.
Like just to have, there's no doubt in my mind that those
those doctors are not reading like papers every single night.
So it feel like they're not, they're not finishing their
shift and then going home reading 12 hours worth of
research papers. So having someone like this
makes you I think a bit more informed about those questions.
And I think often I think the main question when it comes to
medical stuff is also like probabilities, like what is the
chance that I'll get this? I actually think that often
doctors don't do great about that.
Whereas I think some of these people will be able to come up
with better like probabilities or probability weighted kind of
estimates of different things you should do they'll.
Definitely, they'll have their role 100% and they're just going
to get better. So I asked it to a handful of
crypto questions. One, I asked it to compare and
contrast Ethereum and Solana's Q4 and prevent and present an
investment thesis. Overall, I was pretty impressed
with the level of analysis it did as well as the recent news
and information it was able to to bubble up.
But what I will say is you can't trust everything it says.
So like it it said that Ethereum is likely to get an ETF in 2025,
but doesn't have one yet. So like it, it missed like a big
rock question. The other one I asked it was to,
to summarize the current state of the crypto AI sector and
actually did kind of and nailed the use cases and nailed most of
the, the leaders. So it feels like it's got a
better handle. And this was that.
So I didn't have to feed it any sources.
So it's just sourcing from the open web.
So I think that's one of the step level improvements here.
But again, you can't, you can't give it 100% trust, but it's
it's making a lot of progress. Yeah, I've actually been very
impressed around Open AI just asking questions about crypto
recently. I've asked a number of questions
about crypto relevant like stuff right now being like, oh, like
which coins you think are interesting, like why, like
which and it's kind of up to date.
So I found it better than grok. Grok I tend to find has gives me
like some random tweet with like a lot of engagement that often
is like like either been bot farmed or is either conspiracy
theory or like I I haven't found Grok that useful compared to to
open AI. Yeah, I think that makes sense.
For better worse I got, I don't use rock.
It's just not in my like daily process.
I haven't really interacted with it too much.
It's mainly using Twitter as it's it like a lot for a lot of
it's a lot of it's data, right? So like it can get some really
like if you think open AI gets stuff wrong, Grok gets stuff
wildly off. Yeah, wildly.
What'll be interesting is when like if and when these agents
can start doing their own analysis.
So like even in the reports, like it was basically just
servicing like what Massari had just said or what Blockworks had
written about, right? So you still need someone
creating the foundation for all this.
And it's just bubbling it up. Hey, maybe we haven't lost our
jobs just yet because someone still has to be writing this
stuff. We'll we'll see for how much
longer that that lasts. But folks, I think we went
around the horn today, covered all the topics on my list.
I think we can look to wrap it up.
That'll be our show. 1 of thanks to our listeners as always for
tuning in. Thanks to our partners.
Thanks to Amanda for posting the show with me.
We will be back tomorrow at 10:00 AM Eastern.
Quick plug, Underexposed will be coming at You Live in one hour
at 12:00 PM Eastern. We're going to go deep into the
port noise saga. Going to get Peter and Deez's
thoughts on that as well as Jeebs.
So if you want more content, check that out, but until then,
we'll see you tomorrow. Go make today a great day.
Goodbye.