Good morning, good morning GMGM everyone, and welcome to another
episode of Homo Hour. Today is Friday, April 25th
point .5 and it's another green morning out there folks.
GM and D crypto majors, alts, beams, all rally, even the
crypto AI board is pumping. And the question is, can this
continue? We're going to break it all down
on today's show. No for rope, but we've got a
full house. We got Mando, stats, Jeeves, all
in the studio. You love to see it, boys.
Jim, hey, how you doing? I'm doing great, man.
I'm doing great. Someone is here.
Indeed, sun is shining, but even in Chicago sun, we haven't had
it for for months, but we have it now, sets Sam, Jim, how are
you doing? GMGM, how's Life?
Good. Even even better, now I could
talk to you. I'm doing.
Yeah, you know, like I said, I haven't had a coffee yet, so my
personality will change as the show goes on.
Well, we're excited to track that and your caffeine levels in
real time during the show. And folks, we've got Jeeves on
with us here this morning as well.
Jeeves GM, how you doing? GMGM ready to be that coffee for
Sam? Wake him up here.
Let's go, baby. Well.
I don't have coffee, but what I do have is a shiny new Canon.
Erect here, folks. I've got the old one here.
Is it better? You said it was better.
I I haven't actually tasted it, but Ovie says this one's way
better. So.
So I I gave my I gave a review on X yesterday.
To those who who've already hasn't seen it, that was not a
paid review by any means. That was an honest and genuine
review. This is better.
I I haven't, is it just? Water or is it?
Is it just sparkling flavored water?
It is flavored sparkling water. Very very clean list of
ingredients. I'm going to read them off.
Carbonated water, organic agave syrup, natural apple flavour,
natural Raspberry flavour, natural flavours and then malic
acid. So pretty clean ingredient list.
It is more carbonated than the lime and I like the flavours.
How did you get them? I think, I think Obi must have
sent you them. I haven't even got any.
So I don't know what you did for the first round, but you you got
them before I did. I still haven't tasted it.
So he's doing this like abstract tour at the moment.
He's doing like 20 different shows of the last two days.
So Tyler, you tell me how you got them.
Like, did you? I've got the inside track.
Yeah, clearly. With OV but that I believe they
will open up for a public sale soon.
I think there is some some news to come.
So I don't know exactly when that's going to be.
I do think it is going to be soon and I think these are going
to move quickly that that's my prediction at least as soon as
people get a chance to taste these because they are quite
good folks. What are we talking about on
this morning show? We're going to talk about more
than coffee and drinks, even though I could probably do a
full hour on this. We're going to talk about the
crypto market rallying. Is it decoupling the the Bitcoin
ETS $2.8 billion in inflows in five days, Seoul outperforming
in majors, we outperforming in alts. the Fed rescinding its
crypto guidance, Metamask launching gasless trading,
Coinbase listing, Zora market didn't care.
Memes pumping crypto, AI pumping.
Deloitte eyeing 4.5 trillion and tokenized real estate.
I know Jeeves's eyes lit up when he saw that RWA headline plus
double yeet spins. Before we dive in, a quick shout
out to our partner Wallet Connect.
Wallet Connect is the connectivity network shaping the
future of on chain UX. If you've connected to a web 3
app, you've seen wallet connect that blue logo.
It's everywhere, an icon of trust in crypto as recognizable
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Follow at wallet connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of
what's next. All right, we love our partners.
As always. Mando, if you're ready, let's
get into. It.
Can you dig it? Good day, another good day
really in crypto. I think we everyone keeps
waiting for the day that we kind of sell off and there just seems
to be support around this like 92 1/2 or 92 K level for Bitcoin
at the moment and these green candles continue.
I think it's just something to always be worried about with
crypto. Is that like the good periods
often and actually sometimes the bad periods happen quickly.
You know, risk happens quickly in crypto.
And and right now, I think if you weren't exposed to the
market, you are probably in I'll buy the next dip.
And and these dips have quite shallow, it feels like.
So probably, probably just indicates that people were were
less invested than I thought they were.
And yeah, good, good period here.
Bitcoin dominance is is still kind of hanging out at 64 1/2.
It's mainly because of ETH is still underperforming, but
there's been some winners in in L1 for sure.
Sui has probably been the main winner and then a lot of the
more risky activity on on Solana's come back.
So most of the major Solana memes are up a decent amount and
some of the AI coins, the AI coins are back up to 8 billion
as a as like a as a group now on cookie, which I thought was was
relatively interesting. Fartcoin has not been doing as
well, which I thought was was, yeah, again interesting.
It's it's now gone a bit more broad and there's there's a few
other things involved in that rally.
I I think the main story at least for trap by this week
continues to be this this this Canter vehicle alongside Tether.
I just think that that the idea that we may have like another
micro strategy and you've seen a very good reaction to Canter
stock on the back of that is it's just a good sign.
And I think people are thinking that, you know, this is going to
continue here as other other vehicles may be spun up, whether
it's sovereign wealth funds or or actually public vehicles than
to to buy Bitcoin here. So that's why I think the dips
are shallow. And I think people also will
probably less invested than than they were a few months ago.
So there's a little bit of FOMO creeping in.
I don't know if now's like some incredible time to buy, but I do
think it's, I would be unsurprised if like there's this
grind hire, which is, which doesn't feel that good for a lot
of the market participants. That's that's kind of my guess,
yeah. I don't really know why Sui, Our
performance has been kind of strange.
All I can really see is this is this Pokémon thing because it
hasn't. It's not like a ton that ever
really goes on on Sui, if I'm honest.
It's a lot of like B to B stuff rather than huge amounts of D
fire or anything like that or huge amounts of NFTS.
There's some stuff going on, but it's it's nowhere near like some
of the other chains. So maybe we're going to hear
some more headlines specific to Siri coming on the the move
feels like it feels almost parabolic at this stage, right?
75% in seven days from now. One that's pretty aggressive.
It's big. I mean 37 billion FTB.
Yeah, right. What do you what do you do in
sui? Does it seem like a catch up
trade Mando people trying to chase what would maybe be next
cycle Solana since it has a bit of like narrative and mind
share? That's what it always has been
with Sui. I feel like I just don't know
why at times it feels like, oh this is, I don't know.
Like if I look at I don't know how much stables, like what is
Sui TVL like so ETDL has only 1.5 billion or 1.7 or 8 billion.
Like that's not crazy as chains go.
Yeah, like Arbitrim has 2 1/2 eight.
It's kind of just above Avax really, right.
Sonic's even close to it. I, I don't know, just see.
It just seems like it has this like momentum behind it.
And I, I get the feeling it may be there's going to be some
headlines around Siri that maybe we haven't heard about.
Like those numbers don't point to like, Oh my God, this, this
is about to go crazy, right? Have you guys used Siri?
Like is this a platform you guys spend time on?
I haven't. I don't think it's very B to B
to C like there's not much activity that goes on.
There's been a lot of like corporate integrations that I've
seen, but less less like NFTS mean points.
I don't even know if people use it for payments that often.
I think that's the right, I mean, I have used it.
I've I've traded some NFTS on this suite, I've traded a
handful of tokens, but I do think Mando's read is the right
one. I mean daily active addresses
are they do seem to be grinding up here.
They're up 3X this year. You always have to be careful
with that metric and they can be blamed.
Maybe I'm missing what people are doing on there.
Like I look at the where the TBL is, it's this sui lend protocol.
So they clearly have a lending protocol on there.
So pop. Pop over to search, search for
Sui, go to Application Activity, it's the next one on that
ribbon. And then click View All Assets,
which is in the second window down.
You see that? Yeah.
And then filter by daily active addresses, sort that from these.
I think it's already sorted actually by that.
Yeah, record. I've never heard of any of these
things. 818,000 people using SIM app 116,000 using fan TV.
I've never heard of any of this. Like you see the Siri is my
biggest alt bag and I've never used the chain and I know
nothing about it. I I think that's what's driving
a lot of the price to be honest. Yeah.
Maybe we should pay attention to record.
It's got a million active daily addresses.
I just typed in record and sui and nothing's come up.
Nothing comes up on Google either.
Yeah, that's what I mean. What's going on here guys?
What are we? What are we missing?
Record App. It allows creators to monetize
via short videos based in Dubai. Content.
Maybe I missed this like. Based in Dubai.
That's a signal. In the Last Post was a week ago,
so it felt. Like it was more than just like
the Pokémon headline. I didn't think the Pokémon
headline was enough to pump it 50% this week.
But I feel like from a narrative perspective, I feel like Jeeves
kind of has it. Like it feels like it's the if
you want to belt bet on all L1 out further out the risk curb
and salon. Like what are you?
What are you going to bet on and high perhaps is is the most
consensus sweet kind of next been a little bit more quiet.
So so maybe that's it. I I want to zoom out a little
bit. Mando, thanks for the the
broader report and go around the horn.
Maybe Sam, I'm curious As for your thoughts on on macro here.
I think you, you shared a couple tweets this week.
I was, I was scrolling through 1.
You kind of called out consumer sentiment at multi year lows and
you're kind of showing how crypto sentiment feels different
than that. Perhaps more 5050, which I argue
maybe it's even higher than that to be honest, but maybe we have
to separate Bitcoin from crypto. But just kind of maybe curious
for your thoughts, going to elaborate on this and and how
are you feeling about this? Bro, all the am I?
Am I losing you guys? I'm not sure if my reception is
kind of getting weirder if that's everybody.
You're fine now. Yeah.
I mean, I, I think the macro indicators are pretty bad.
I think the impact like I'm kind of of the view that we've been
in like a 70 year bull market basically because of
globalization, certainly the past 30 years, like bull market
for big corporates. And that is kind of what we're
chipping away at right now. And that's really been the core
of a huge, not just enormous earnings growth, but also huge
multiple expansion for stocks. You know, if you look at things
like the dollar, like they're sending pretty bad signals.
I think all the pretty much every sentiment indicator you're
seeing is pretty bad right now. And I think that these tariffs
and kind of this commitment to kind of chip away at
globalization is real. And and it's going to be going
on for a while. And I think there's a bit of a
sentiment among markets that just one tweet from Donald Trump
and it's all going to be over. And I just don't get that read
from when I hear him. So from a macro perspective and
an equity perspective, I think there's reason to be cautious.
I think what we're seeing in crypto, though, is the opposite.
Like we're seeing crypto starting to show signs of
behaving. I mean, if you look at metals
and equities, they almost like gold is obviously the core
metal. But more often than not, they're
trading in opposite directions where gold goes up and equity
goes down or or vice versa. And we're starting to see crypto
kind of behave a bit more like gold.
And you're starting to see the use case or the idea that
crypto's an interesting place to be if the world order starts to
get chipped away at. Like that thesis has never
played out before, but over the past few weeks you're starting
to see signs of it. So I'm, I'm, you know, that
that's kind of my, my broad picture view is, you know, a bit
more cautious on equities and risk assets, but a bit more like
kind of 5050. Like maybe crypto starts turning
here and becoming something that people want to be in, in a world
where the things that we're used to and the things that have
driven kind of economic growth forever start to get chipped
away at. It's interesting.
I, I feel like I, I agree with that directional read.
I'm curious like what, what, what has shifted in this?
Like what's driving this Bitcoin decoupling right now?
I guess it's kind of like my question and why is I think that
it's happening in the last 7 days?
I mean, it's hard to say 7 days versus like a month ago or
whatever, but and it's on for a while, right?
It's definitely been going off versus stocks.
It's been definitely been going on.
For a while, right? I think we decouple, started
decoupling about six weeks ago, maybe six weeks.
From like the election until like February, though, like
Bitcoin was correlated with Tesla more than it was
correlated with gold. Like they're both kind of like
high beta proxies for, for assets that the administration
viewed favorably And like that was like, but like Tesla and,
and, and Bitcoin were more correlated than than Bitcoin and
gold were up until about 6 weeks ago.
But we've I, I, I think just gold has been insane.
You know how like this, this has been like a multi multi standard
deviation move for gold. And it's, you know, it's, it's
not people don't have gold going up 35% like over six months kind
of on their on their bingo card. And when that happens, I think
people want to know what else they can get into.
And I think really ever since the tariffs, gold has been the
keynote asset. And I think once, you know, we
see it in crypto like it used to be at least that when Bitcoin
had run then like everything else would kind of follow.
I feel like right now people like, well, I don't want to get
into gold. It feels a little it's it's run
too much. Oh, Bitcoin could be like an
alternative as far as like kind of like one of these inflation
hedge assets, even though it hasn't been that historically.
Just feels like that narrative's coming around.
Plus we have an administration that really likes it.
Yeah, you have Lutnick, who is working on this.
Can't, I mean, Cantor is working on this product and, you know,
the head of Cantor is in the administration.
And then you have Sailor in the background who's kind of like a
constant buy force as well as all the other things I have
absolutely no idea about that drive these markets that we're
completely oblivious to. But you know, it feels like it
feels like there are a lot of different forces kind of lining
up. But as people say, like, hey, we
want to get out of U.S. dollars as as our kind of backbone of
our portfolio, like Bitcoin just feels like an area that people
might want to turn to. Yeah.
And that six weeks is basically since Liberation Day.
I mean, it's really Liberation Day.
I think that triggered this because that was when that was
when we made it clear that like, you know, gold, that the US had
an interest in being playing a different role in the world
economy than we have in the past.
And Bitcoin was 75 K on 17 days ago.
You. Know yeah, it's it's been pretty
it's been pretty sudden. I don't know what the trigger
was that that switched us from fear to FOMO.
I'm not sure what that trigger was.
I mean, other than perhaps maybe that was when gold really
started hitting these like crazy all time highs every day and
doing like 3% moves, which it never used to do.
It is interesting if, if I feel like there is growing sentiment
that stocks like, while we might get like relief rallies, that
the, that the, the broader direction is still down and that
the, the pain of the terrace hasn't even really been seen
yet. And if stocks become less
investable, but you still want to invest, like what are the
options? I think you kind of laid it out
and gold's on a parabolic move. Do you want to buy the top or do
you want to buy something else? Real quick, folks, today's
raffle block code is Friday and we are going to be doing those
yeet giveaways here and probably just about 10 to 15 minutes.
So they are coming up. Jeeps, I want to give you a
chance to weigh in. And we, we, we talk every
Tuesday about the conversation here.
Yeah, I mean, just a just a lot, Tyler, this move and interest in
Bitcoin, I think it makes sense. It's something that we've talked
about for a long time. When Bitcoin was 75 K, it looked
less like digital gold. At closer to 95, it's looking a
lot more like digital gold. And I think that narrative just
compiles. You know, last night at this
event, I was talking with a guy who's a wealth manager for high
net worths. He's now putting 2% allocation
into Bitcoin for all of his clients.
And I think that's where it starts.
This is one of the things that we had spoken about earlier
where, you know, folks are and, and, and ideally advisors start
to recommend to their clients to have some level of Bitcoin
allocation. But I think when you see these
huge signals like Cantor going after the Bitcoin space, like
taking over the micro strategy, replicating micro strategy, when
you start to see the government moving in a very pro crypto
direction with, you know, the two stable bills that are
happening with the market structure bill and the
government's clearly aligning toward crypto, It makes it less
of a scary asset to invest in in times like this.
And when you see when you start to see the price go up, I think
sentiment changes. You know, I, I love seeing sort
of the hard data and then I love like the sentiment checks with
neighbors, people in different industries just to see how
things are going. And so, you know, we talked
about this privately, but just know a lot of folks who are
changing up general spending behavior.
Our neighbor stopped over yesterday.
She's a realtor, you know, covers the Denver market, has
been in it for a long time. And she said things are have now
cooled off significantly. So we cooled off for a little
while. I think things started to heat
up slightly again. And she said it is completely
dead and no one's moving, no one's selling, no one's buying.
You know, obviously rates are a huge part here, but you know,
the reality is that people and companies are having difficulty
making any type of long term decisions, not knowing where
things are heading. And so stability in the world
and markets is just being disrupted a bit.
And so for now, the, the best decision for most people has
become no decision. And then this right here, you
know, I think this is some really great data coming out of
trucking activity in Los Angeles.
The the data source here is Sonar which is a data and
logistics company. Focused on on shipping,
trucking, etcetera. And this is showing that things
are kind of falling off a Cliff coming out of trucking in LA and
this guy Craig Fuller is anticipating a 50% drop here.
So we're talking major reduction in trucking coming out of LA,
which is where a lot of our Asian goods come in to sports.
So we're seeing it in the data. We are thanks.
Thanks for sharing this and I I was trying to find a friend of
mine runs in e-commerce business.
He sells E bikes and he posted his thoughts yesterday and
basically said most small E com businesses are just in survive
mode. And that might mean selling
existing inventory till it's gone and not repurchasing
anything until there's more clarity on supply chains and and
where they can source products from.
And he is kind of comparing it to the COVID level crisis.
Just bunker down and and try to make it through.
And he paints A gloomy picture as well.
And like this is going to start to to impact folks, impact
products, a sun shelves, higher prices, all that.
So that picture is gloomy. I think Sam, you also shared bat
soups thoughts which are pretty in line.
He's saying recession at best, stagflation at worst.
Basically, US has put themselves in in a tough position here.
One of the interesting things talking about soup is like, I
think there's this view that the money printer is going to turn
on and that's going to save everyone.
I think people are really imprinting this COVID economic
cycle onto this cycle when COVID was such a unique outlier that
to think like that's going to be replicated, I think, you know,
it, it, it feels uncertain to me for sure.
But bat Sup's kind of of the view that lower rates might be
bad for markets that right now. There's that, that right now,
broadly speaking, like people think like long term inflation
is going to be higher and, and like, and that lower rates
aren't really aren't really the the key or the solution.
And one of the interesting things was the day that it was
announced or the day it wasn't, it was never announced, but the
day it was suggested by Walter Bloomberg and Watcher guru that
Trump wasn't going to fire Powell.
And he said that to you like the day that he said like, I'm not
going to fire Powell, markets ripped.
Now him firing Powell would be dovish.
Like the reason he doesn't like Powell is because Powell wants
to keep rates high or doesn't want to keep right side, but
he's not willing to just go full money printer rates to 0.
So you would think that him saying he's not going to fire
him would mean that we're going to be more hawkish.
But on that day, you know, basically when he said we're
going to be tighter, like the market's completely ripped,
which to me says that it's actually not money printed that
people are looking for or it's stability because Powell is a
sign of stability. He's not a sign of free money.
And the idea that he was sticking around, you saw a 3%
rally in NASDAQ. So I thought that was kind of
interesting because if you look at the timeline, I feel like
just crypto, we're all still so like wedded to, you know,
sitting around our houses in COVID, during COVID, watching
everything go up 8% per day. And we want that to return.
So, you know, we're thinking, OK, we're just going to
replicate that, but with a new cycle.
I just don't think that's kind of the the situation we're in
right now. I tend to agree.
I feel like printing money right now that goes against everything
that that Trump has said that they're they're trying to do
investment right. They're trying to reduce the the
debt you. Know who you know who is
printing right now? China.
China big time, and a bunch of other countries as well, Like
the US is posturing that we're at the table with China, while
China's just publicly saying there's no negotiation talks
happening. Which is a huge.
Huge divergent in I think just people puffing their chest in
different areas. But like it's clear China's
ready to Duke this out. Like I think just this morning
they injected was it CN¥600 billion, which is like $82
billion aiming to provide. They, they, they want to make
sure that the the banking sector has plenty of liquidity to to
wait this out and they're ready to print and ensure that a lot
of their folks are in decent positioning over the next call
it six months, a year, however long.
They want to fight this out scary.
It's it's concerning, I think. The narrative that that I'm
seeing out of this China's printing, buying gold, selling
U.S. dollars, perhaps buying digital gold, I haven't seen as
much of, of that, but it would certainly be in line.
Or perhaps that enables more confidence from the sovereign
wealth funds from these institutions, from these new
strategy competitors which are spinning up to start building
these crypto treasuries. James, I'm curious kind of maybe
going one step further. I wanted to talk trends.
I think we've talked this macro picture, you know, 20 minutes
now. I feel like there there's some
things shifting in the crypto space.
I feel like we're we're seeing some new things start to happen,
some new trends. I'm curious what jumps out to
you. And I, I feel like right now
it's just such a heavy liquidity fight.
But obviously the RWA space that we've talked about quite a bit
has been one of the massive emerging trends.
If you look at a company like figure who's putting, you know,
billions of dollars in, in Helocs on chain, you know, you
have Deloitte writing an entire thesis on this.
We're coming off the backs of the Digital Asset Summit where
all the major players were really pushing this whole
concept of RW as right RW as are not new.
They were, they've been around since I've been in crypto and
that was around 20/14/15 when people were talking about
putting your home on chain and your car on chain and everything
will be on chain. And it really never
materialized. I think the first wave of RW as
were these small to medium business loans from like Maple
Centrifuge, some of the other players and then you sort of saw
that die out. It's kind of living around a
bit. Goldfinch was in there as well,
but then they started to see default risk there.
There's there's a bunch of problems with that.
And, and now what you're seeing is a lot of private credit come
on chain. And that's the new darling child
in the RWA space. And So what does that mean?
You see folks like Apollo, you see KKR, they, they run these
giant private credit books, whether it be private credit,
debt, infrastructure, there's tons of different instruments
that they do. And a lot of folks are thinking,
OK, RW as are coming on chain, they're going to put these
different strategies on chain. But degens aren't going to be
the customers of these different assets.
And I think that's where folks get confused with them because
folks like this will never work. Degens won't buy it.
That's not exactly what it will look like.
So when you think of how this works, there's the capital
formation component, there's the actual underlying asset that
that capital flows into, and then there's capital
distribution, right? This strategy made some money.
We need to pay out our investors.
The tail ends are where we're going to see crypto use the most
upfront because now you can basically set up either either
sort of via automated via smart contracts or ease of capital
formation on chain. But then just utilizing stable
coins, you're now reducing your fees for capital formation and
capital distribution by 100 plus bits.
And when you're doing tons of these deals, that matters over
time. So I think folks are now
realizing we can use crypt, blockchain, rails and stable
coins to create huge efficiencies in our operations.
And look, Apollo's large investment into Plume is a, is a
huge signal to that, to that thesis.
So this is one of the areas, as, as you know, we talk about this
almost every Tuesday. It's one of the areas that on
the early stage venture side, you know, I look for companies
that are building and doing this and probably talk to three to
five a week building in this space.
And I think it's one of the the hot areas.
The problem I'll point out here, you know, from the retail side
and the investor side, it's where will appreciation from the
investor standpoint fall? Will it be at the protocols
issuing the private credit, private debt?
Will it be at the specific block chains that are actually, you
know, coordinating all these efforts?
Or will it end up being the public companies like your KKRS
and your Apollo's who are now gaining the huge efficiencies by
issuing these products on chain and saving a bunch of money that
way? So I know that's a lot, but
that's kind of where my head's at with this space.
It is a lot, but, and this is clearly one of the the biggest
macro trends happening in crypto, it's going to take time
to play out, but we're seeing more evidence of it on on a
weekly basis. So we'll stay close to it.
We won't have time to get into it today, but on Tuesday's show,
save your thoughts, we got to talk about Coinbase trying to
stop the Genius X stable coin bill and if we think that's
going to be a positive or negative.
So that was a bit of a surprise. We haven't talked about it on
this show. TLDR, they think they're only
going to be able to get one crypto bill through Congress
this year and they want a broader bill than this current
act. So we'll see if they're able to
make that happen. Another trend I want to talk
about quickly, and Sam, maybe I'll throw this one to you, is
out of Metamask and this broader trend of account of abstraction
and abstracting away different aspects of the user experience
on chains. The news out of Metamask
yesterday, you, you, they, they announced this a while ago.
It's officially real. Now you don't need ETH to do
transactions using them at a mask on Ethereum.
Now they will use what tokens you have as and they will make
it your gas token effectively behind the scenes, as I
understand it, they'll be converting it to ETH for gas and
they're also enabling you to choose whatever default gas
token you want. So if you want to always operate
on USDC, on Ethereum, now you can do that.
I think one of the immediate questions that comes to mind
when people sees this is what does that mean for Ethereum, for
ETH? Curious if you have a take on
this. I have a couple takes here.
First of all, this problem is one that I dealt with today and
the like doing transactions on Polygon where you got to get
money over there, You got to figure out how to get the matic
to, to pay the gas. You got to figure out like it is
extremely difficult. Like I've had a lot of time for
I'm pinging friends to be like, hey, can you send me $6 of
whatever into this address so that I can buy this NFT or
whatever. Like it's, it's a really clunky,
awkward user experience and I'm old and I'm not like the the
perfect demographic for doing this stuff, but I'm pretty high
up there. I work full time in crypto.
I'm pretty high up there for should be able to figure this
stuff out. And even for me, it's incredibly
difficult. So the challenge of like getting
in today, like I had money on base and I just wanted to, I
wanted to put it into some stable stuff.
Do we lose him? Same with OSHA Dane.
Yeah, yeah. Keep cooking.
Yeah, so this is like a serious problem to fix.
So I personally think this is great.
Obviously it has to be done well.
You know, you don't want to end up like realizing you paid some
absurd rate to move your pengu to pay for your gas and Arbitrum
or something like that. So if they, you know, you got I
got to like it. Feel like there's potential bugs
in here where it could be like, but if assuming that it's done
well, this feels very useful. What does this mean for ETH
prices? Probably nothing like I I like,
I don't think this is like a driver for ETH prices, but I
think it's like a nice to have usability factor.
What is a driver for each prices?
FOMO, man, I mean, these are it's a meme coin.
Like maybe people are going to hate me.
I mean, it's very hard to back into a hundreds of billions of
dollar valuation for something like any of this.
Like none of this stuff really does the cash flow generator
like back what it is. They're all culture coins and
like vibe coins and FOMO coins. And like, you know, and I think
with ETH, we had this really great narrative that Bitcoin was
going to rally because of the Trump administration.
It did ETH was the the next one to go because it was the only
other one with an ETF. And that was like, so Bitcoin
would rally, then Eastwood rally because that was what American
retail had access to and easy access to.
And that thesis just, you know, maybe it played out for a little
while, but it's not showing legs.
And I think people are like struggling to figure out what
the next thesis is because at the end of the day, hundreds of
billions of dollars, you know, I think it's very hard to back
into a fundamental backing for that.
So it's very vibe based and when vibes go down, it becomes
harder. I will say this.
I, you know, I, I every night I do, I do a once a week chess
lesson with a guy in Ukraine and I pay him 35 USDC for the hour
chess lesson and he pings me. He said, Hey, I moved it all to
ETH. So that's, that's my warm boy.
She's like, yeah, exactly. He's like, I took, I took the
last 35 bucks a week. Fine.
So man, maybe maybe Ukraine or he lives in Slovakia, maybe
Slovakia in retail is like, you know, 11 indicator.
But yeah, I, I don't, I, I think the story for Ether is often
like next best story after Bitcoin in the FOMO right world,
because FOMO, which has all this stuff and that just hasn't been
playing out. So people are like, all right,
what's next? Jeeves, you, so you're, you're
the wealth manager you're talking to.
Is he just 2% Bitcoin and and no exposure or anything else?
Just Bitcoin, he thinks it's like a nice, nice gold head.
She thinks he's just he's he's actually he said last night that
he was more bullish Bitcoin than gold long term.
And I love that. You know one thing, Sam, to your
point, I, I pointed this data out to Tyler earlier this week.
You know, Artemis Mando, I saw you using it before.
Love this platform when you start to look at going back to
just like it's narrative focused, you know, Artemis has
this great thing when you look at projects, you can sort the
market cap by revenue. So they they create a ratio on
this and man, one of the top ones here trading at a 49,000 X
Ripple, Yeah. And the theory I'm starting at
2300 X Swede at 2500. XI mean this is the yeah, take
it or leave it. I don't know how accurate this
data is, but I think it's interesting when you come here
and look at these multiples, it's just one piece of data in a
much larger picture. But man 49,000 X that's.
But where does Bitcoin trade? I think XRP is just a Bitcoin
now. Like people who own it, do they
even care if it has a use case? Like I think they in 20 years,
if Ripple doesn't have a use case, I don't think the people
who own will care. It's like this Bitcoin community
of just like this is our currency XRP army.
I think Ripples in a great little spot there because it's
got that and not many others do like ETH.
I know it sounds ridiculous, but everyone ETH is a professor who
is like, oh, we were trying to build this at the revenue and
the revenues gone wrong. You need more left curve.
This is going to 500 trillion people in your community and
Earth doesn't have that. It doesn't have any meme value.
Um, it doesn't. It's not seen as the currency.
It's seen as a as a PE multiple and that's what where it has
gone wrong. And the same thing with NFTS.
The minute people start trying to build fundamental valuations,
you know you're fucked because these numbers are just way too
high. Like, you know, it's like
Clonex. Clonex cost $80,000 and they're
sending people shoes. Even if let's just say they were
free. They weren't free, but let's
just say they were free. No pair of shoes is going to
ever justify an $80,000 PFP. It has to be about the vibes,
the FOMO, and the narrative. That's it.
I mean, the interesting thing is ETH is the only for me.
ETH is the only actual real currency that ever existed in
crypto because I think of crypto punks and born apes in terms of
their ETH prices. It's like the only time where
crypto actually broke through and people started to really in
their brain fully calibrate an asset in terms of their
cryptocurrency prices. As opposed to like, I'm never, I
couldn't tell you how many Bitcoin I bought my house for.
I can only tell you how many U.S. dollars I bought my house
for, but I know exactly how many ETH I bought each of my crypto
punks for. So it's interesting, it's
actually kind of broken through in the one way we all want these
things to do, which is that assets actually start people
start to see the world in terms of those assets.
I don't think it's anything's ever done that other than ETH.
But again, you know, when you're dealing with a multi $100
billion valuation like that ain't it's just not there.
I, I, I disagree. I think the meme value in like
the not the meme's the wrong word, but like the cultural
value, the cultural appreciation.
I don't think it like it's like a dead horse.
I think it could. I think it could have another
gallop. It's just it's very hard to
predict the the winds of culture.
One last really quick Ripple thought on this one.
So going back to the soft data, whenever I'm in the sauna,
people are generally talking crypto and other stuff.
Ripple comes up more than any other currency.
And I always just naively ask people like what what does it
do? Like what's the purpose?
What what do you use it for? And confidently, every single
person answers it the same way. It's replacing Swift A. 100% I
got I have a guy on my hockey team, my hygienist, my kids
tennis coach, and now the chess instructor.
Those are my 4 examples. All four, two of them are all in
on ripple and they they say it's replacing Swift.
Like this narrative is 8 years old.
It hasn't evolved at all, but that's still what they're doing.
That's what I'm saying. All four of them.
All four say Bitcoin is too expensive for them to buy.
I think that's. In 20 years, they'll say the
same thing it's going to replace.
Not to make progress on this front.
And like, that can just continue to be the narrative, folks.
To me and I I hate to say it, I'm going to say the most anti
crypto thing ever. We are not early this narrative
has been around for 10 years. If this were real we we would
see progress like this Is not like a lot of these techs like
YouTube and crypto are the same age.
Crypt YouTube feels like a dinosaur product, like people
are on YouTube, but you know, it's like not even where the
cool content creators are going. Like a lot of stuff is not
early, but Ripple is definitely not early for hints that this is
a real use case to be showing up.