Good morning, good morning GMGM. Welcome to another episode of
Bubble Hour of Bubble Hour episode 197.
We are so close to episode 200 folks.
Today. The day is Tuesday, September
10th. Point .4444 folks, it is a
cooler but sunny morning here in Chicago today.
We're in the 70s but heating up. We are going to get into the 80s
here for the rest of this week. We like it.
Is the crypto market heating up? Sure feels that way after a few
days of sustained rallies. Now we've got the majors in the
green, memes in the green, even NFTS are in the green folks,
we're going to get into it on today's show.
No for real, but but this is our last day without for a for a
long time. He's travelling home from London
and he will be back with us for the foreseeable future.
We are excited for that. I'm sure Amanda will be stopping
by here any minute. We've got Logan on with us, our
editor in chief over at Lucky Trader.
I don't know if anyone's been following this base closer than
he has over the last three years.
Logan, Jim, how you doing? Good morning, Tyler.
Yeah, doing well. It's warming up here, got the
windows open, the sunshine in and the markets feeling a little
better. Can't really complain.
Feeling good indeed. Well folks, we are going to get
into it and more on today's show.
So what are we talking about? We're going to start with the
quick market report. Is Bitcoin finally just notch a
new higher low? Memes in the green Nero, Feisty
Nero. Back to $200 million market cap.
We've got Machi's Meme live A16Z.
They announced their new cohort of crypto startups for their
accelerator Rug Radio. Myriad Marcus went live in
private beta. Folks, we are excited about
that. And then we've got Grill punks
on the move. Doodles on the move and then
we're going to spend some time on the US presidential debate.
Polymarket has a major card lined up.
We're going to go through a series of bets.
That is the main event for today.
Before we dive in, I want to give a quick shout out to our
new partner, Galaxis. Galaxis is a no code Web 3
platform that empowers creators and communities to become
owners. Check out at Galaxis XYZ on X to
learn more and we are very excited to have them on board.
All right, with that, I think we can go ahead.
Let's let's dive right in. I feel like we've got a lot to
get into. I'm going to fire up the the
screen share for those who are in the stream.
So yeah, we're going to go live here with the the screen
markets. I saw stocks this morning seem
to be mixed fairly chopping into the debate tonight.
I don't know, that's a huge surprise.
Crypto majors seem to be falling a bit on the open.
We had Bitcoin over 57 K this morning when I woke up.
Looks like we're at 56 six now. We've got ETH at 2325, so it's
up just a half a percent here. Solana at 1:34.
So Solana is leading here at 134, up 3% on the day in the
meme markets. So memes had a a solid day here.
So it looks like we've come down a little bit up in the three to
6% range. DOGE up 4%, Pepe at 3% with up
6%. POPCAT holding strong here at
590,000,000. MOGS started to show some signs
of the life. Up 6% now at 330 million.
Folks. Looks like we've got Mando in
the stream with us. Hey guys, GM the the shirt is
on. I see, how are you doing?
The shot is on. The shot is on.
Yeah, doing good, Doing good. I think the mark is still
looking good. Seems like we sold off a little
bit as stocks have opened. But yeah, I'm in a happy mood.
Good, well, we like happy Mando. I I just started giving us a
quick intro just went through some crypto prices.
I don't know if anything jumps out to you from your market
report what what you may have had on on your list.
Big rocks here for today. Phantom has been on a bit of a
move in L ones that and Siri have had a have had a pretty
good little period here. We spoke about that yesterday.
It's like maybe some of these L ones are outperforming.
Yesterday it just felt like that Bitcoin dominance, which had
drifted a little bit lower, just kind of came back and Bitcoins
Bitcoin dominance is back at like that 58 level, 58% level,
which has been a very key point of resistance in the past and
actually support in the past as well.
So yeah, we'll be interested to see kind of if it does
breakthrough that and kind of goes up towards like 60% or
more. I personally, I think most
people in crypto are waiting to see what happens with the
debates tonight and and then maybe maybe CPI, like CPI is
going to come out tomorrow like that, that'll be relevant.
But I, I don't think it'll be crazy.
Yeah. I think the debates is going to
be the big one. I, I'm not even too sure if
they're going to mention crypto, if I'm honest, like, but let's
see. But yeah, those odds are just
getting stronger and stronger. It looks like.
I, I, I'm surprised that yeah, that that we are up higher on
the back of those with odds, if I'm honest.
Yeah, I think Mando referencing Nate Silver's election model
laws, he's got Trump up at 64% now 64 to 35 Harris versus
Polymarket. I think is just is, is at 5346.
So it's much closer on Polymarket.
So perhaps, I mean, if, if you think this is the narrative,
perhaps the market's more aligns to to the betting market than it
is to Silver's. I will say Harris did get some
positive polling data in yesterday evening that Nate even
mentioned was not included in this last run of the model.
So we'll see if she jumps back up.
I I think she will jump back up a touch.
But honestly, like, who cares about polls until tonight's
debate? Like we need tonight's debate in
the books. And then you know what, three to
five days of solid polling to to think, really get a feel for for
where we're at. Like, that's my read on it.
So are you going to be staying up to watch this tonight?
Fair enough. I will be.
I will be staying up. Yeah, I will be staying up.
Well, maybe, maybe I'll just watch it in the morning. 3:00 AM
for you. Yeah, like maybe I'll just watch
it in the morning. Don't think I can do three AMI
used to used to watch these when I was like used to get up early
when I was at work and stuff. Sometimes to watch some more I
think at uni when I was watching them.
But yeah, this maybe this one's maybe too late for me.
Yeah, the the morning recap will probably be fine.
Amanda, you were firing out some tweets yesterday.
I want to get into a few of these.
So so 1 you mentioned, did Bitcoin just put in his first
higher low in six months means big if true.
Look it I mean, this is on a daily, like there's a debate
about what that happened because the last one, there's a Wick
down on that day, which then bounced back in the same day.
But on a four hour style channel candle then yeah, it does it
like it has. And let's see, like there's a
little bit a lot of false dawns around this.
Like, I guess I'm talking about the first lower high of that big
channel that we see going lower. There's been a couple other
times where it looked like that was going to happen and then it
hasn't. So it's kind of still remains to
be seen if that's actually going to form to be a a high low.
But that's that's a good sign in my opinion.
You know, with the Rs, you know, sentiment was so low, RSI was at
the lowest level in three years and then suddenly you hit this
and you know, I think that we we're in for a positive next few
months with in terms of liquidity and even like the
political atmosphere around around Bitcoin.
So I, I like that to see that in the chart again, it like Bitcoin
dominance was the thing that kind of grew again yesterday.
I some of the salami coins did well, some of the L ones have
done OK, but it's I still think we need Bitcoin to kind of rally
get us out of this. Like I don't see that many new
wallets coming in to buy altcoins right now.
I think we need, we need Bitcoin above 70 K again.
I think for, for like FOMO people to come back in and, and
and buy coins. You know, Coinbase is at like
500 on the App Store again. I think crypto global search is
at is at Lowe's basically from when we were at the Lowe's last
year. So people aren't paying
attention to crypto again and I don't think that happens when
Bitcoin goes from 55K to 60 Ki. Think that happens when Bitcoin
hits a new all time high. Yeah, that that read makes sense
to me. It is somewhat notable.
They look at the fear and greed index.
It is up somewhat sharply off the bottom.
So we were we were down in the 30s.
Yeah, neutral. Yeah, just a few weeks ago back
to we're already back to 47. Folks are the, the we, we get,
we get 3% pumps on Solana and folks are already firing back in
the the meme trenches. You mentioned that a little bit.
Maybe we just take a quick look at the, the meme board.
So it, it, it has sold off a bit more up in like the five to 15%
range. When I pulled up the the the
charts yesterday, there was quite a few up like in the 20 to
40% range. So we saw a pretty strong bounce
in the afternoon. Some of your, you know, more
notable from this past kind of cycle of memes.
Billy catching some love. What we got here.
Get in Mother fog, fog up at 76 here.
So we see. Yeah.
Did you see the Bonk news this morning, Tyler?
Oh, I did before, so you might not have seen it.
Bonk was announced as a premium partner for Dortmund the in the
Bundesliga. Wow.
Yeah, no joke. Yeah, I pushed that just before
the show. I mean it doesn't mean anything,
but just funny to see in terms of meme coin news.
You don't normally get that type of meme coin news.
Bonk yeah, they they keep doing things.
That is a fact. They're holding up OK.
I'm not sure we saw the market move too much on that one, but
we got I got to pull up this Nero chart thought it was over
this. This is the one that's making me
kick kick myself harder than anything.
Nero back at 190 million. It hit 200 million briefly.
So I don't know exactly what's happening.
If it's the cabal pumping this, that's what that's what I've
seen on the in Twitter comments, but man, this one's almost fully
back to to where it was. So that one's a wild chop.
Like, look at that chart. Imagine the pain of people who
have traded that chart. Yes, I it's easy for me to
imagine because I am one of them.
It's a full N up to 300 million, down basically to zero and then
straight back up to 200 million. That is a good luck.
Good luck trading that one. Good luck.
Indeed, I needed more luck than than I had on that one.
That is, I. Don't think many people have
made money trading now K Wells have probably made money.
The team has probably made some money.
Look at that like you barely had no time to get in, but like
that, that was a daily chart, right?
So you had four days before it hit 200 million?
Straight up, then straight down. There was very little time to
even like, get straight down. Back to 100 straight up to in
two days, basically up to 300 and then full N, of which
everyone was buying. Hopefully it will go to a
billion and got wrecked down to 25 fucking million.
Like what the hell was going on there?
And then they get a Binance listing out of nowhere and you
just get God candle after God candle.
Like as a yeah, good luck. I don't know where that goes
next. You know what I mean?
Maybe it's another end. I think another end would
probably be my my, my top prediction on on what happens
next. But I'm done trying to guess
what's going to happen on Nero on ETH.
I will be watching from the sidelines.
We'll see if Wiz of Soho can fund this next meek and those
trip on the back of this price action.
We saw Machi's token go live. I mean, I don't know if
disappointing's the right word. Perhaps boring.
It's just a better word. So it, it was a $5,000,000 pre
sale. It it hit, it got up to like 10
million. So it was a nice 2X for anyone
who was in the pre sale. So in this market we're not
complaining about two X. It was a nice 2X for anyone who
traded it. It's it's hanging out at 8.8
million right now. I'm trying to see if like this
is baseline markets. I'm seeing if I can find the how
much liquidity is in this. Perhaps I'll have to find
another page. I think it's got something like
3 or $4 million in liquidity. So liquidity is pretty thick on
this. I think that's a feature of of
baseline markets. Logan, any reactions to this one
here from day one, Machi? No, I think boring is a really
accurate way to describe it. You know, some of these things
with that kind of built in floor, they just stay anchored
to the floor, you know, like the the upside feels just so limited
because that floor exists. So you know, while you're not
losing, you know, you're, you're just really limited.
We saw that with a couple of the NF TS that took off on blast,
you know, via the blaster protocol.
Some of those like unruggable NFT type things, same thing.
You kind of Max out of like 2 to 3X.
This is the maybe the biggest experiment in that way.
But we're we're kind of seeing the the same thing.
And it's the thing, it's going to be just like really hard to
maintain any sort of momentum when you can't break out above
2X or, you know, whatever that multiplier is.
Yeah, it's unclear like why, why are you coming in to buy it here
Like it was nice for the pre sale that 9 million, you do have
some downside, right, I mean you do have about 50%.
Now you do Premier for sure. So it's less of a safe play, but
we will we will see if if Machi has any tricks up his sleeve.
I guess I would have expected a little bit more in terms of
fireworks on day one, especially just given you know how much he
he's pumped into some other. Give it time man, this is the
new D5 primitive. Indeed.
Then Susie will come back to to comment on this one again, like
the other tweet of yours may know that I wanted to just
briefly pull up, man, this was this is an intense headline and
I feel like we knew there was a lot of SEC crypto actions, but I
guess I didn't have the picture of this to how much these things
tallied. So the SEC is paid $4.68 billion
from crypto firms this year, just a, a shocking amount.
And I think if you, I, I think it just, it, it pays the picture
of why they're, they're doing this to, to such a degree,
right? These, these guys, they have to
justify their existence in this, you know, in this government
body. And they've, they've been given
kind of free reign to, to go after and now they're able to go
collect these fines. It's a massive amount.
I'm curious if you had any reads the reactions to this one,
Amanda? Yeah.
Look, I think it's I think it's a big deal and it just, it maybe
paints it into a, a stronger, stronger light.
Like what's going on like this is that amount that they're
taking from crypto firms is like more than the SEC basically made
last year in 2020-2021. I think they made more in 2022,
but like this is a, this is an organization that that gets
fees, right. And like the other thing about
this, where do these fees go? Like they, the majority of these
fees from this year was levelled against Terraform.
Terraform. Sorry, Terraform Labs, that the
firm behind Terra, right, Luna, of which you know, 20 to 40
billion was lost, depending on how you count it.
Was any of that given back to those people?
No. They just keep it.
So it's kind of this wild situation where they like they
come in and they find the rugs often the estates of the rugs
even, right? Like they actually have a fine
against FTX too. But like it's it's just like a
really weird scenario to me. And if I'm sitting there, the
SEC like I'm probably thinking, you know, how, how are we making
money this year? How are we making money this
year? And it's it's very, very clear
that they think that unlike the banks, you know, the banks is
also another, another main thing that the SEC finds that banks
have huge legal departments, right, that can hopefully fight
these sort of. And they've been, you know, pick
any bank you've ever heard of and they've probably been done
for money laundering down the line or miss selling of
securities or poor information holding or like, it's, it's
crazy that those funds swap, but they've just they clearly see
crypto now as this new cash cow for them.
A lot of probably people they can threaten with going to jail
or that you've broken all these sort of rules and they're having
a lot of easy wins, you know, a lot of easy wins.
And it also puts just puts that into perspective, you know,
like, why are they so anti crypto?
Well, they can be anti crypto. No one really cares and they can
make a ton of money doing it. And I think, I think hopefully
that that just puts it into a bit more light, right?
Like they haven't protected anyone.
Firstly, none of those fines are going back to anyone who, who
was involved in any of those things that they find
particularly terror. And thirdly, like their
incentives are just completely off here.
Like this is now their new, new Cash Cash cow.
It's, I think this is going to continue.
Like they were hoping, just to be clear, they were hoping to
get billions of dollars from Ripple.
This could have been like a $10 billion and they're still hoping
to get billions of dollars from finance who they haven't settled
with yet. Remember, only the DOJ has
Coinbase. They're hoping to get from
Kraken like this is going to be like nearly 100% of the SE CS
revenue. It's, it's clearly a cash cow.
I guess the, and I mean it's an eye opening number.
Clearly it's negative. I agree.
The, the funds are not going back to the impact of consumers,
you know, which is what the SEC is set up to protect.
Perhaps the silver lining in this is I don't think they're
going to kill the their cash cow.
So I, I think there is a likelihood that that crypto does
stay alive. It's just going to be regulated
and fined and, and perhaps, you know, perhaps it, it will run,
you know, some smaller players out the door, but I don't know
that they're going to. That's the other way some
people, one person in my DMS is like, oh, this is really bullish
because you know that will that'll mean they'll keep it
alive. Like maybe, but they wanted to
keep it alive but also keep it without any regulation.
So they want to keep it in this Gray zone so that they can keep
on just, oh, we need some money, you know, we need some money.
Let's let's let's go off the crypto again.
What I will say is Leah perhaps last on this because this is
what my prior career was before I went full time went through, I
was doing anti money laundering and compliance consulting for,
for banks in the in the US. And I think there is some
advantages to like when you get these consent orders and some of
these recent consent orders, the SEC is levered against some of
the more crypto friendly banks in these consent orders.
They give them terms that they have to comply with.
And then the, the way it works is you, you go back a lot of
times they'll hire consultants to come in and build out these
programs. And then you, you present the
programs back to the SEC. And while they don't always give
you like a, a fully like a thumbs up, they will basically
like stop, you know, they'll stop fighting you, they'll stop
coming after you if your program is compliant.
What that means is you you start to have the playbook for how to
operate, you know, in this heavily SEC regulated field.
So a a potential silver line coming out of this, but man, it
it was an eye popping headline. That much is for sure.
And perhaps lighter news. I want to pull up the where was
it? OK, so so A16Z, they did
announce their fall 2024 cohort for their new crypto startup
accelerator. Let's see 21 startup selected to
join coming from 11 different countries.
I scanned to the list. I'm not going to read through
the whole list here folks. Go go check out the tweet from
Jason Rosenthal if you want to dive in deeper.
Logan, not sure if you had a chance to, to look at this.
I, I skimmed it. It looks like a lot of
infrastructure, a decent amount of AI, not a whole lot of what
I'd call like true consumer apps on this list.
Curious if you had any reactions.
Yeah, yeah. So I didn't dig into many of
them individually. A couple that I was curious
about that I started to just didn't get very far.
But the, the thing that stuck out to me was the, it's not a
overwhelming amount of mentions regarding AI agents, but there's
a few there, right? And we, we remember we were just
talking about the AI agent article with Coinbase, right?
Those transactions starting to take place on base, you know,
parallel others in the in this ecosystem have been talking
about the use of AI agents. And I don't think I've really
wrapped my head around exactly what that means, but you're
starting to see these actual, you know, these big companies or
maybe not big companies yet, but these companies start to lean
into it and the notable investors are obviously paying
attention. So that's something that I'm
just, you know, kind of fascinated about.
I don't exactly know what it means just yet and how, you
know, it evolves moving forward, but I was curious to see that
listed there. There's a couple consumer
things. You know, there's like the dot
dot fun one, which I thought was interesting.
User created pics are going to need pieces.
That's kind of interesting. I don't, I don't know how it
manifests itself, of course, like I don't know the technical
details regarding the block chains or whatever, but that's
that was interesting to me. And there's also one that not to
make fun of the word primitive, but I'm missing the word.
I'm missing it here somewhere. There was a another consumer
one. Yeah, there you go, future
primitive creating a new home for Internet photo pals.
I was struggling to understand exactly what it is, but that was
one that stuck out to me as a another potential consumer one
as well, which of course I was looking for as a, you know, non
developer trying to find something that I, I could
potentially, you know, mess around with to start.
Yeah, it's funny you missed that one.
That one actually jumped out to me, stood out to me as well.
We need places to to share our our photos with, with our pals,
right. And if you're not an Instagram
user or you know, or Facebook, you know, perhaps we could find
a new on chain way to do that. But folks, we've, we've got some
we've got another start up very exciting close to home.
We got some major news out of the rug radio and decrypt team
yesterday, the launch of myriad myriad markets now in private
beta, huge blockbuster news. I I want to spend more time
going deep on it when Faroque is back.
So we we'll do a lighter discussion here today.
I think Sims, we might have a video to play for those who are
in the stream. Just stake the news, make the
news. Pretty slick video.
Logan, I think you played around this.
Any 2 early reactions here? Yeah, if you may have caught it,
if you're you're watching the stream, you know, there's that
quick clip of the decrypt YouTube and the sort of the
prediction mark of the injection right below.
That was just super, super cool to me.
You know, the ability to kind of consume content like if we were
talking about the price of something or an event taking
place and immediately, you know, make a wager in one way or the
other that that was really, really cool to see.
So I'm excited to see everything that that comes out and, and
transpires with, with Myriad. It'll be fun to mess around
with. It's exciting, I've used it,
it's very slick, it's lightning fast.
So you you make these bets and they they go through in in
seconds or or partial seconds. So I'm looking forward to this
one quite a bit. Folks.
If you are interested, one quick call to action, you can go to
the site myriad dot markets and sign up for the wait list if you
are not already. So go and do that.
Much more coverage to come on the show.
I want to get into prediction markets and talk to debate, but
we'll perhaps save that for our final segment before we get
there, perhaps a bit of NFT news.
Punks grail punks are hot. We continue to see major sales
on rare punks. So 3 in the last day we saw that
the hoodie 3D smoking punk move for 300 ET.
That's Deez's twin punk. A lot of folks thought it was
Deez's. It's not.
Deez's has the pipe but it sold for 300 ETH 686,000 and then an
hour later punks OTC he flipped the hoodie zombie for a tiny 75
E profit in what a day and 1/2 that one sold for 500 and 58th
And then this morning beanie punk sells for 119 or 280,000.
We saw another mid tier that this nice beard sold for 53.
It's a nice stretch. The the 308th on the the 3D
hoodie really had me me thinking Logie, I'm curious for this and
I asked this to to a few different friends.
I talked to Peter Jennings about this because Peter has has a
nice 3D hoodie as well. What side do you like?
Are you taking the 300 ETH or are you taking the 3D?
The 3D hoodie grill? I mean, it's tough to turn down
300 ETH that particular one. I just the cigarettes don't you
know, like they don't, they don't jive with me too much.
So when you're asking me personally, I think I'm thick of
the 300 ETH over the cigarette punk, you know, strip that out
and maybe I'm maybe I'm reconsidering, but it's it's
really difficult for me to get past that.
I don't know why too much. I don't know.
I I feel like what one of the grail sales, they immediately
flipped like 98th of the profit into floors.
I think that would be my my play here.
Like if I had, you know, if I had this, I would be, you know,
cashing in to a certain degree, reinvesting via the floor,
feeling OK about having and maintaining crypto punk exposure
whilst, you know, still locking in some significant gains.
That that's that's probably the way I'd play it.
As a small aside, Tyler, sorry to it's not a Segway too much,
but I saw punks OTC tweeted this morning that he has AUS buyer
looking to buy another grail via wire transfer.
So yeah, it just interesting. I'm not sure we can read too
much into that. It's just one, I believe one
person based on the tweet, but that's your kind of like, hey,
maybe you have some people outside our bubble, you know,
recognizing that these are a thing which we need, right?
We need that narrative to re establish itself in order for
punks and probably all NF TS to go back up.
You need people outside of our little bubble to think that
they're really cool status type things.
That's also a feather in the cap of those who say punks are
priced in USD and and not in in E terms.
You know. Looking for someone looking to
wire mando. Curious for your thoughts which
which side would you take? You taking the 300 ETH or the
the grill 3D hoodie? It's not that I don't think that
that that it was a good buy, but I feel as though mid tier punks,
they only trade maybe a few times a year, You know, like
when there's let that like foamer for them, there's
liquidity to sell them. I mean, I don't know how many
hoodie punk sales there were last year, but I don't think it
was like a ton. Personally, if I was sitting
there with 300 eve locked up in a hoodie punk and I had the
opportunity to sell it, I'd sell it.
And that's more just because I think that you you should
probably take the liquidity there.
ETH is a relatively like you could hold an ETH just as an ETH
trade, right? Like if ETH goes up or bounces
back to like 4K, for example, I think hoodies would go back down
to like 202 hundred ETH. And if you're bearish on ETH,
then I also think that punks are going to be a more difficult
hold. So yeah, my view there is, is
probably to take the money. It's a tough one.
I, I, I struggled with the decision on what the right call
is. I, I talked with Peter Jennings
a bit over DMS and he was kind of saying, I think thinking the
ETH is the safer, more conservative route.
He does feel like the punk has higher upside than the ETH does,
which I would tend to agree with.
You're, you're right. And these things are liquid.
I didn't realize quite how liquid.
So just so there's 12 sales per row.
So there's 22 hoodie punk sales in the past year.
So these things really don't move.
So we're talking about one 1 1/2 moving per month.
Yeah. So you may not have a
opportunity to flip this for three years.
Yeah, a handful of those punks as well Tyler are the same punk
moving as well. So like unique hoodie punk
movement. I mean it's it's far less than
that, probably less than 20 based on just a quick scan of
that listed. Maybe not, but.
But hey, we we like to see it. Some interested, some interest
in the Grail punks. These are day for Ethan Antes.
We don't need to spend a whole lot of time on it.
Leaders up 3 to 5%. Doodles leading the charge up
17%. Perhaps finally catching,
catching some well deserved love for all that they've been doing
with their short film, with the singles tokenizing their viral,
their viral social media content.
So back over to ETH, up 23% on the week.
They are on an upswing. Well, folks, I think a lot of
folks likely tuned in for our debate coverage and I want to
give the people what they want. There is a lot to cover for ways
that you could potentially bet the debate tonight.
If that is something that you are indeed interested in.
It is something I am personally interested in.
So Polymarket spun up a debates board.
Folks, there are 22 bets on this page of various ways that you
can bet on this. I'm going to go through some of
the big ones here. So for starters, who is going to
win? Who is going to win the debate?
So this is the the primary market here has seen $220,000 in
action. Comma at 73% here.
Now the the reason that comma was at 73%, I think that might
be a surprise to folks. The way this bet resolves it is
based on Ipsos and 538's opinion poll on who wins the 538 has
been fairly left-leaning. Logan, any reactions to this?
Would you be? Would you be taking this bet?
Which side would you be? On No, it's, it's interesting,
interesting that you say maybe a little bit of a shock because to
me that, you know, just zooming out, that's where my head goes
right off the bat. You know, somebody who's going
to likely be poised on stage, you know, avoid the, the Super
deep personal attacks, some of those things that are really off
putting to viewers and potential pollsters as well.
So that's that's where I lean. I mean, we know the the rules of
the debate are a little bit different.
Again, they're they're doing the muted Mike's thing in between.
So Trump is maybe saved to a certain degree there versus some
of those old debates with, with Biden and others.
But yeah, I mean, this doesn't, this doesn't shock me.
I also don't necessarily think that I think the, this, the
margin here is, is perhaps a a bit small.
Like I I don't think I'd be making this bet at $0.73 but it
it would be my lien. You're going to win 30%.
I I think she will win the the bet.
I would have thought that regardless of how this is being
resolved via the 538, but perhaps I, I spend too much time
on crypto Twitter and that's why I, I was surprised.
But we've got Kamala at 73%. I think perhaps more interesting
line is who will be the favorite to win on Paulie market a day
after the debate. Now this is at this got Trump at
82%. Kamala at 19.
She was higher. So this has fallen off quite a
bit. This one feels like a lock for
for Trump. So Trump's up 5346 on Paulie
market. We we showed the Nate Silver
model. He's got Trump at 6435 like
unless Trump like unless something just wild happens
debate he he's going to be leading tomorrow on polymarket.
So, so this this one actually feels like free money.
Let's let's take a look at the terms.
It's it's again looking at a four hour time window 24 hours
after. So that will be tonight 9:00 PM
Eastern to 1:00 AM Eastern. No, we saw the cabal last Friday
try to influence one of these derivative bets almost pulled it
off. I think that is perhaps is a a
risk with with that's like this, but I don't know.
I like the the trump side on this one quite a bit.
For those who like to bet the the heavily the heavily favored
lies moving forward through the list.
A couple fun ones. You know, we, we've got
basically our version of the Super Bowl coin flip, but you've
got Will Kamal and Trump shake hands.
I'm trying to fight. Yeah, right here.
That's at 30%. What side are you on here,
Logan? Shake hands.
Yes or no? Why?
Why wouldn't they shake hands? Isn't that just customary?
I mean, I guess, but like he shook hands with Biden, didn't
he? I mean, he does he like anybody?
Is he customary? I don't think he did shake hands
with Biden, no. I remember when they walked out,
they walked out to like separate spots, right?
I don't think they shook hands. I'm heavily on the no side.
I think there's there's they definitely do not shake hands.
The 30%, yes, folks, if you think they they will, then
you've got some nice, some nice upside.
I don't know, I think, I think I don't mind that at 30%.
I don't know. I mean he if you have you have
his camp like wanting him to soften a little bit of the, the
personal attack type stuff. Just a a friendly handshake to
get the night started. Feels OK.
I don't know. I have, I have nothing really.
No substance to back that in any way shape or form.
It's just feels OK at 30%. All right, Logan's taking the
flyer at 30%. Another one who was asked the
first debate question, I feel like, so this is the market's
got Kamala at 80 percent, $73,000.
But this one feels like a a slam lock, Yes, for Kamala, right?
Like she's getting the first question.
I think so. Yeah.
All right. So we're we're in alignment on
that one. Let's get into the dimensions
markets. I think those are arguably the
most interesting. There are a few other bets you
can make. You can be on the total
viewership, you can bet on the future number of debates after
this. I think that's an interesting
one as well. That's going to hinge on how
today's go. As for the the mention market,
this is an interesting one. I think these are the best.
They're going to get the most action tonight.
So we've already got a $1.5 million bet on what will Trump
say at the debate. Abortion at 82%.
Borders are at 70. Those are pretty heavy
favorites. Israel at 92, China three times
at 90. Those are all pretty heavy
favorites here. You know, when you're watching
these live, it's much more fun to be on the yes side.
It's like betting the over versus the under on sports
matches and games. I think what jumps out to me
right off the bat though is some of the no's.
I like no on fake news a lot. I actually don't think Trump
will will say fake news here at the debate.
Tyrell, who has been one of the the better mentions touts for
Pauli market. He likes border at 15 times.
Yes, this is a 90 minute debate. Him saying border 15 times, I
don't know that's a lot. That's a lot of times to mention
the border. I know that's it's probably the
the single biggest issue. I kind of like the no side here
at at $0.40 on that fraud is a potentially interesting flyer at
at less than or is basically a coin flip odds.
There's so many, so many different ways you can use the
word fraud, right? And it's any context that this
resolves yes to, I'd imagine. I think that's interesting.
Yeah. Any context?
Yeah, this is the word is, is, is is said you win the bet
regardless. But yeah, Logan, any of these
jump out to you? Have you made any of these bets?
I, I've not made any bets even at 82 cents, like a abortion did
stand out to me just given that that's another, I, I read a
couple of the like New York Times and a, a couple other
sources just in preparation for this discussion.
And it seems like that that's obviously an issue that's going
to come up. So that felt like only $0.82.
I think for Kamala, the same word is like maybe 95% or
something like that. So it's, you know, very likely
to, to come up in my opinion. I also that, you know, we should
be remiss not to mention the crypto Bitcoin one, which you
can see at the bottom of your screen there.
It's 17%. That feels high.
Yeah, that fell high to me as well.
And that's another one of those ones where I was like searching
out via these other, you know, traditional news publications,
whether or not that might come up.
I was reading Laura Shin's piece on from Unchained Crypto this
morning. It just doesn't seem like he and
his camp feel they need to do anything to win over crypto.
And it's not a major issue for folks for, you know, for of
course, for us, but not for the the vast majority of folks.
So, you know, I, I made that bet last week.
We were talking about the Wisconsin town hall or whatever,
which resolved no, unfortunately, but I don't see
any reason for this to come up on the big stage at this point
in time. Yeah, I don't think we're going
to hear it tonight. One more.
No, that jumped out to me mega three times.
No, at $0.69, I don't think he's going to say it three times.
I think he probably says it once in the conclusion.
I don't really see how that comes up several times.
So those are the Trump mentions. I want to take a look at the
Kamala card here. So this is also got about $1.4
million, but already some similar terms, a few that jump
out convicted felon at 59%, liar at 38%, probably 2025, I'm
speaking at 21%. She's got her own borderline DEI
at 6%. Weird Judy Vance.
So she's got crypto Bitcoin at 14% that's interesting than
artificial intelligence not going back.
So I actually I like artificial intelligence at 36% and it's one
of my my long shot bets for her. It's been it's in her platform
that was published I think last night or the night before that
he also dropped artificial intelligence in her DNC speech.
I think she will want to talk about some of like the emerging
tech things that that she is backing and AI clearly is on
that list. So I think that's that's an
interesting flyer here at 3:00 to 1:00.
I think for those who like to bet the heavy favorites,
Palestine seems like a lock yes to hit not going back like that.
That is her that is her tagline. So I think there's a good chance
you know, she's going to say her tagline.
And in the the conclusion of the debate, JD Vance interesting one
at 3:00 to 1:00. Is she going to name drop
Trump's VP? I think that's possible.
You know, one out of three times.
That's interesting. 1 Logan. Also see what what jumps out to
you from this list. Well, I was just that I'm
speaking one. It was one that came right right
away. Actually the the no side here
just because of that mic muting thing, you know?
Oh, you like the no side? Well.
I don't know. It's interesting because we're
not going to be able to hear Trump when she's talking, right?
Because of the mic muting. Although he's probably still
going to be talking anyway, right?
Like, I don't know. I don't know.
Now I'm conflicting myself here, but that one is.
There 1. He will say it.
Are there any odds that he will say I'm I'm talking?
No speaking, he didn't have that.
One, I would take those odds like he's.
Just going to be talking, yeah. No, but I reckon he bring he
like zings it back. He yes 100% if she says it he
will say it 100%. Watch this let let's double
check. You may have talked me into the
yes there, Tyler. I was just thinking like, again,
I was reading the logistical details about the mic muting and
stuff. And when I'm thinking about it
logically, like, you know, he's not going to be able to
interrupt her in the same way as he would have been able to
previously, right? It's not going to be loudly
reverberating through the room via the microphone.
Although, you know, maybe he just starts shouting.
Who the hell knows what could happen?
We can do it as a distraction tactic like what we saw like in
the Hillary debates. He was like kind of like
following her around. I don't know if that was on
purpose or not. That was heavily covered
afterwards. We'll certainly see DI at at 7%.
That abortion lines down to 88. I feel like it was higher when I
looked at it earlier this morning.
Abortion feels like pretty free money at 8088 cents.
I mean that yeah, it does. Democracy at 83, that feels
pretty strong as well in a 90 minute debate.
You got some Flyers on unrealized perhaps interesting.
Like is she going to talk about how she's kind of walking back
the the unrealized cap gains tax that that's possible at 5:00 to
1:00? We will certainly see if you
don't want to, if you want a little bit more action or you
don't want to bet just the heavy favorites straight, Polymarket
has introduced a new fun way to do it via these bingo cards.
So there are three bingo card lines.
They've got different odds of hitting and that's because
you'll you'll notice that they are different cards.
So I've got the debate bingo card one pulled off.
This is what they look like. They're effectively parlay
cards, very complicated parlay cards.
So if any traditional bingo line hits, you win the card and you
get the return. So it'll resolve to 100%.
So you bet it at 3031 cents. You're going to get a 3X or 2
1/2 X on your your bet there. I think this bingo card one the
one at 31%, seems the most live to hit.
Is it that second row down? Yes.
That's the one that like as a quick glance, maybe some of
these others knows. Harris says product 2025.
Harris says I'm speaking. Harris says weird.
Harris says wall. And that's a lot.
You need a lot of things to go right.
I, I like this bottom row at first.
You have them both saying abortion heard to say Palestine.
Harris says wall. Trump says China three times.
That line feels pretty strong. You, you need her to say wall,
but they're probably both going to say abortion.
But you've got a lot of different outs, right?
But you, you see where these parlays get tough.
So like this corner slot, as Harris says, that's a 6% chance
of hitting. So any, any of those lines are
pretty unlikely to to hit. So those are pretty much already
out, but a a a fun new way to to bet on these mentions.
Not a whole lot of action. I haven't expected more, only 10
Ki. Think it's too hard to follow
it's you know, it's it's the only way to do this is to
actually print out the card and stamp alongside the the actual
talking. But it's too difficult to follow
and they look at a new line you go.
To this, if you go to this line, you have no idea what it what it
means, right? Then you have to go into the
rules to, to find the link to the card.
So we'll see if they get a better version of that.
But that pretty much takes us through the, the interesting
bet. You can bet on the finish time.
I, I was looking up historically, do these debates
finish on time? They usually do, but I think the
last one with Biden did run long.
So you've got a, it's, it's like only a 19% chance to finish on
time. And then where this really gets
interesting, perhaps the most edge is depending how this
debate goes, will there be another debate?
The market thinks this is going to be it.
So theoretically, I think we, we would have had two or three
debates between these candidates.
The market thinks this is going to be the only one.
So I think if one of the candidates gets the, I think
that the chair, I'm saying is that Trump's not going to want
to debate again after this one. Yeah.
What outcome leads to another debate?
I mean, is it a? It's a landslide Trump debate
victory. Maybe leads to no, they wouldn't
want to do another one. I don't know what could possibly
lead to another debate. I guess I always thought there
was just like three. I thought that was just
standard. Sure, but.
From the camp side, I mean like. Why would?
They If Harris wins, you probably don't want to get
embarrassed again. If Trump wins, you want that
lasting impression that Trump wins.
I'm speaking from the side I I don't know what outcome from
tonight's debates would would push either candidate to wishing
to do another one. I don't know.
Yeah, we'll, we'll certainly see.
Well, this is going to be appointment viewing folks.
I know a lot on crypto Twitter will be glued to the TV's.
That is 9:00 PM Eastern tonight, so live in prime time.
That's 15 minutes on debate talk.
That that is plenty. Before we wrap up, I do want to
give a a quick read and a shout out to Kraken.
So some big news out of them yesterday.
So Kraken and Williams Racing are bringing back their unique
rear wing takeover contest. This offers NFT holders the
chance to have their digital artwork featured on an F1 car at
the US Grand Prix. So holders of William Racing's
grid pass NFTS, those grid passes, they will receive
AirDrop PFPS from the new Cosmos collection.
They're designed by web three artist Candy Apple.
Fans can then submit these in a tease to compete for a chance to
have them displayed on the rear wing of Williams Racing cars at
the 2024 US Grand Prix in Austin.
Very cool. 6 wing designs will be selected by fan votes from a
short list of 12. We've got some interesting
quotes here from some of the team members.
So James Bauer, commercial director at Williams Racing, He
said last year's takeover generated huge interest in a
brilliant design and we can't wait to see what fans will
choose this time around. The Cosmos collection brings
William Racing's proud F1 heritage to a new wave of
digitally savvy fans, and the rear wing takeover is a unique
chance for our supporters to decide what FW 46 will look like
in Austin. And Kraken's CMO Mayor Gupta
called the event a great opportunity to collaborate with
our Williams Racing partners and accelerate crypto awareness
through the sport. I I think for me, thinking about
this, this event, it connects Formula One racing with NFT in
what 3 gives fans unique way to engage with the sport and F1,
you know it, it seems to be up only in interest in the US.
So certainly a, a huge platform, huge way to, to get your, your
project and your art out there. So go check out those grid Pass
NFTS if you haven't already. And shout out to Crack for
pulling off this awesome collab. I'm sure we'll be following up
on this show as these designs are submitted.
But folks, As for today's show, that is going to be it.
Shout out to our listeners for tuning in and listening.
We will be back tomorrow to break down all of today's
actions. We've got 3 back-to-back to back
days of robot spins. We've got Farooq making his
triumphant return live from his home.
So we'll have his full set up going.
We're excited to have him back and at full speed.
As for today, go have a great Tuesday.
Go make it a beautiful day. Goodbye.