DMDM everyone, Another beautiful day in crypto.
Looks like we, I don't know, Looks a little bit lower again,
doesn't it? Things are not good in crypto
since we've left it. We missed yesterday's show, but
we are now three days in a row lower.
Looks like kind of across the board most of your favorite
coins are are lower It feel it feels like Bitcoin is now
touched just just below 60 K sorry 61 K and it's now been
rallying actually it's now back up to like 61.3 so we're
bouncing a little bit. Capo says the bottom is in says
we're looking for a rally so that this morning how are you
doing what have you been doing over the last 24 hours or 48
hours? I.
Played played golf this morning with.
Yeah, saw that. I'll I'll Robbie Douglas. 95
years old, still carries his clubs around.
What else did you do in the last 24 hours?
I started building some, doing some baby stuff.
OK, Built a cot. I When's the baby due?
About seven weeks, 8 weeks. Right.
He's built the cot. I actually didn't.
I actually, that's a lie. I didn't build the car.
I was supposed to build the car yesterday and I didn't because I
was fucking around on the street one or something.
You've got eight weeks, mate. I think you'll be.
I think you'll be all right. Don't leave it too late.
You know, you know me, I like to be early, never know in.
A week or two to spare. Tim's has already put out
today's. Today's partner wants us to move
very quickly onto the show. So today's partner is is quick
now. They're going to be coming on
later and of course we have our monthly sponsor fair side as
well. But yeah let's get into what's
been going on in crypto over the last 2048 hours.
Like I said, it feels like felt a slightly weaker tone.
We did say that after Bitcoin didn't really sustain that
bounce. It looked like it would
probably, I think even on the show we said it would go down to
kind of around 60 K and then we'd work out if it was going to
be another lower low or we bounce from there.
How you feeling? How you feeling reading the tea
leaves? I don't know.
I'm. I'm struggling to think why
we're not able to hold these rallies like macro feels OK.
Stocks have been OK, rates have been low, and it felt like we
were kind of out the woods on crypto and then we kind of just
got like sold back down. Like ETF flows have been quiet
this week, but we just have two large inflow days.
So I don't know, it's frustrating.
It's frustrating to not really see us kick on or even just like
hold those gains. I'm not really sure why.
I'm not sure what's causing it to like get sold back down.
Like, yeah, I don't know, maybe there's like, maybe people know
about some more like SEC FUD to come.
Could be something to do with that like.
Yeah. Is it that or is it just is it
just a Bitcoin pump? Is this kind of it stops and
that's meant everything is just been hammered.
It just feels as though this was all tied to Bitcoin.
And I saw today like search trends for Bitcoin are down 50%
since that since that peak around the ETF.
So clearly retail kind of didn't really come back in in a huge
amount, although we're still getting kind of I I didn't look
at today what what was the ETF inflow or what was the ETF flow
it. Looked like there's an $11
million inflow yesterday, but it doesn't feel like to me all the
data has been collected unless everyone else was a 0 because I
think it was only one ETF that had that inflow.
So yeah. Kind of feels, kind of feels
kind of dull, doesn't it just feels like not really much is
going on. I saw that.
I also saw that volumes in April were down about 44% compared to
March. So to me it just feels as though
slight deflation of of people caring about crypto.
And then that doesn't help because to be honest, even when
Bitcoin was ripping, it still felt like it was the same 100,
let's say 1000 people trading the same meme coins and trading
the same altcoins. Like it didn't really, it didn't
really feel like new users were coming in.
So I feel like that's what's testing it the the most at the
moment. It's just it's just a lack of
new user growth. It would be great if like one of
these apps like friend tech or any of the BLAST apps like
really picked up people coming in, even the Fantasy 1.
But it does just feel like we're all we're all playing like, with
each other, right? In many PVPPVP.
Yeah, but like, you go on to that, you go on to fucking
fantasy, right? And it's just it's with trading
the 50 influencers and it's the all the other 50 influencers
trading those influencers as well as the other thousand
people that turn up over every single day.
So it's kind of funny to see. It doesn't feel like we've gone
mainstream at all this cycle to me very, very, very little or
else we would have seen people like me and you coming in, right
if we'd gone fully mainstream. Like I just haven't seen that
many. Like we see I see young people
coming in like people are getting involved in in memes I
think. But I haven't seen that many
people coming in from from a broad range in terms of the
stuff that that kind of grabbed the headlines overnight.
Firstly it was all this stuff around Trump and Biden.
So few headlines there. Firstly that the Biden.
Well, how the House Republicans managed to pass a bill which
basically overturned the SE CS rules on custody for basically
tradify of Bitcoin. Biden then came out and said
he'd veto any any bill like this.
And then Trump. Trump I believe was meeting his
NFT holders last night and he came out and gave a few
impassioned speech speeches around crypto basically saying
he didn't come out like fully for it.
He said a lot of people are for it and I'm OK with it.
And he said, if you want someone who who is going to protect
crypto in the US, then you got to vote for Trump.
Yeah. What do you think of all this?
I think it's pretty mental that you could have like bought some
Crump NFTS or whatever and actually actually get to meet
him. Like, I thought it was one of
those things where it's like there's there's no way this is
real. I saw that Frank Diegoz was like
going to a dinner with Trump and that kind of stuff like that.
There's no way this stuff is actually real.
And he seems to have followed through on it.
The thing that I can't stop thinking about because I just
only care about my bags. But the only thing I can't stop
thinking about is is Trump doing all this stuff?
Is there a slight chance that he becomes like someone who, like
blesses crypto? To some extent that's part of
the elections. Because you know if he does, and
I think he's, you know, if he doesn't, he wins.
And he could be he could be good for a bag.
So it seems like he's heading the polls at the moment.
But yeah, I've. No, I'm curious to see if like
crypto plays a role in politics right now.
I guess for Trump, if he's heading the polls, he doesn't
need to take a risk with something like that.
At the risk of like, losing votes.
But don't know. Something tells me there's going
to be some role of crypto in this election, even if it's just
all the fucking political meme coins.
Like it just seems like it's going to be a big.
Part of it, yeah. I mean he has openly, he's a
populist, right. So I think he just goes off to
what like people want. But at the same time he has
compared to last. The last election I think he was
kind of he came out vocally against Bitcoin and then
obviously he's done this his NFTS 2 two seasons of NFTSI
think Melania's like been selling NFTS too.
So he's clearly been behind more behind crypto and obviously been
using it for funding right. Like I think he raised a few
$1,000,000 which sounds like he could maybe use right now.
Somebody, somebody sent me a rumour yesterday that he he's
going to release a meme coin which I thought was pretty
hilarious. Like Can you imagine if he did
his own his own pump dot fun coin?
Like where do you think a Trump meme coin trades do?
Because we have like the funny ones and we have like the
community LED ones like Trump. And even if Trump actually
launched 1. Yeah, an actual Trump coin.
Fucking. Hell, that would be.
That'd be wild, wouldn't it? That would be wild, but like.
Ten Bill. It would go wild.
I mean, he has Trump Media, right, Which is kind of a meme
stock at the moment. Yeah.
And that Where does Trump Media trade?
It's a few. It's a few.
Bill, in terms of market cap, where is it?
So Trump Media, There's obviously there's like, a lot.
Of where do you think if he launches NFT?
If he if he launches NF TS in 2021, where do you think that
floor will have gone to in like hype peak 2021 NFT bull market?
Where would the Trump NFC floor floor gone to?
He released a lot, though. Remember, he did like 20,000.
Yeah, so maybe. I mean, how high did mutants go?
Using them into like the high, the top of mutants was like 30
odd ether I think right? 34 ETH or something.
That was weird. That was with ape coin baked in
but. Yeah, I mean, I would have, if
he played it right, you would have assumed into the teens,
right? Yeah, I think so.
I reckon. I reckon it could have gotten to
that sort of level. But then then he did dilute it
kind of straight afterwards, which I thought was very
hilarious. But then yeah, meme coin could
happen. Looks like Trump Media is is a
$7 billion market gap and I think they have revenue of like
nothing. It's like the 10s of it's like
the 10s of millions of revenue and it's it's like a $7 billion.
So it's just a meme stop. He is.
If he was, Chili's a meme coin, I reckon that would easily go to
a bill. I reckon maybe a couple bill.
It would go wild before the election, but because he hasn't.
Yet we have. We have the other ones which
rallied, which he had, He had. Interestingly, the Trump based
ones rallied more than the Bowden based ones.
I think people probably realize that Bone's not going to win
this election now. Biden, that is, he's not going
to win this election now. He's unlikely to win the
election now, or at least he's not liking.
But does does Bowden go higher if he wins or if he loses?
I guess it goes higher if he wins, but he wins also.
If he is, it's over, right? It's just like.
He's out the picture there, isn't he?
Yeah. Yeah, you don't own like an ex
presidents meme. Yeah, that's true.
Whereas I think is is Bowden a good shore at some point, like
into the elections? I've I've thought about this
many times. I spoke to many because I was
big in Bowden, right? And I spoke to many Bowden
holders, and lots of Bowden holders were like, you know,
I'll sell before the election because he'll probably do, but
then when does everyone sell? Because everyone's like I'll
sell in August, but then if everyone's going to sell in
August, maybe you're meant to sell in July and everyone's
meant to sell in July and would probably sell in like May.
So like there is now this like Tremp or Trump Bowden pear
trade, which originally was like widening because obviously
Bowden I think was a better meme.
But now I think Trump just re flipped Bowden.
Yeah, I saw that. And Tremp is nearly at 100
million I think today or it got to like 75 S It's funny this
because it seems overly analytical.
I wonder if we'll be able to do this on the on the real
business, you know, but. Well, the Trump coins, to your
point, like the Trump and the Trump coins can if Trump wins,
they can exist for longer than the elections, right?
Especially because Trump himself is just a fucking meme.
Like he's like the ultimate meme.
So like any, any shit that he does, like he starts going wild
on Twitter again or whatever. Like those those coins could go
pretty crazy, actually, couldn't they?
Yeah, I feel like he's not as good a meme, but I think he,
well, actually he's there are a lot of memes around Trump,
right? But the one where where it's
like the Bowden, the the Nolan comic version I think works
better with Bowden. So I just don't know.
I don't know if are you meant by Trump or tramp?
Are you are you meant to wait for the the actual Trump
official meme coin which comes out and goes to two bill?
That would be wild. Like imagine if he imagine.
Takes it to 70. You know what the ultimate Chad
move would be for Trump to just actively launch his own mean
coin, win the election and just get guy against the fires.
And yeah, this is all good. He's.
Such a populist he he just would do it right.
Like why wouldn't he? Like, he has a team.
I met the guy in in in Paris who runs his Web 3 right?
And that kind of dialled in like they know what's going on.
There's no doubt like literally no doubt in my mind that he
hasn't been pitched a that he's he's been pitched and he's
probably thinking about it you know why not I don't know if he
can sell. You see his Trump media because
it's kind of it's kind of tough. I think he owns like 30 or 40%
of Trump media but everyone in Trump media is like hoping he
doesn't sell but maybe just as a a meme coin presale out of a St.
Cayman Island foundation and just use it to get Gary fired
anyway. Yeah so a bit of egg on the face
of the SEC looked like Biden and Warren and a few others came in
to basically save him and said that they would veto this if it
if if the bill passed. But definitely looks like the
battle lines are drawn irrespective of politics.
It does feel as though politics elsewhere does feel as though
Trump is coming out as a more crypto friendly politician than
than Biden going into this election.
So I would, I would expect most of crypto again.
And I've seen this take quite a lot because I think a lot of
crypto, you know, they have a vast range of people on the
political spectrum. But yeah they are they're kind
of they don't like this very anti crypto approach which which
seems to be taking hold of the Democrats and it's not just all
Democrats like RFK came out and he I guess he's an independent
but I guess more or less leaning and he was he's very pro crypto.
So it doesn't have to be a divisive issue but it it does
seem to be. So it's kind of surprised me.
It's definitely, it's definitely surprised me, but yeah, that was
that was one of the main main headlines.
I think you saw a couple of headlines around Ethan Solana.
The first one was which were both kind of negative.
You had Solana FTX again is going in to sell a third tranche
of locked Loch Solana, which we'll see what happens, what
happens there. I think it's a smaller tranche,
probably only in the hundreds of 1,000,000, but they they've
moved two tranches recently, one in the billions and one in the
hundreds of millions. And this one I think is the
thirtest third smallest tranche. And then we saw that ETH,
interestingly Grayscale withdrew their ETH futures ETF
application and that that that got taken relatively negatively.
So you saw an under performance in ETH since then and I mean
everything sold off, but it definitely felt like ETH was
feeling good. It was one of those periods
where I was like oh, you know, it's a bit about performance
here. Maybe this is the time and then
I don't know let me bring up like Sol Eath and Bitcoin Eath.
But it's definitely they're definitely reversed again and
just not really too sure not really too sure what to what to
make of that but I I suspect we won't see an ETF soon.
I think we will see one in the medium term but but probably
does still feel like concretely we're not going to see that one
in in May. I want to pull him up.
Let me just bring up open up Polymarket for that.
And then the other thing, because I think in terms of D
Jenning, it hasn't been a great period for for meme coins.
I think for the last, for the last, I don't know, 3-4 days,
most things are down. My duck is, I'm coming to East
J, Duck Jesus, it's holding up. It's holding up but it hasn't
been a great period but most people have been on blast and
why don't the interesting story is what's actually happened with
this gold because it's something that I think you knew have
benefit benefited from. But has has has rubbed a lot of
people the wrong way in the in the, in the, yeah, in the Blast
community when when you give the the TLDR on what's going on
there. Yeah, so there's this thing that
came out a few days ago which is called the blast gold jackpot.
And basically if you own a token or an NFT it gives you an entry
to the jackpot and certain tokens NFTS have high
probabilities of winning than others.
We don't know what the probabilities are or the what
the weightings are, but BLAST does have a list of different
factors that affect it. They say tokens have high
probability than NFTS. They say things like market
caps, social engagement, all these things add to the
probability being higher. If you're a new coin or token,
you also get a high probability as well.
So you know all that stuff was made public and it came out and
I think Pacman won the first jackpot.
It was quite a big and there being quite a lot of gold for
people and it's fine. And I think Fancy Top won the
next one. Then a token called Big won the
third one and then Blast won it again yesterday.
But the payout was quite large for Blast now.
Sorry. You said blast one it but it.
Was packed, sorry Pack Me won it again yesterday, but the payout
was quite large. One thing to note is like the
market cap of Pack Me has increased quite a lot recently,
like it's I think quadrupled in the space of about a week, maybe
10 days or so. So maybe that's a factor to it
getting a higher allocation because like as its market cap
goes higher, we know that its probability will increase and
maybe that results and it also getting like a high proportion
of the jackpot, whatever. But I think, you know, obviously
anyone who owned PAC Moon pretty happy with it because they just
got a shit ton of gold for people who don't own much PAC
Moon and have spent a long time farming different daps and stuff
on on blast a little bit like well there's a kick in the face
because I spent weeks and months farming all the stuff and using
all these protocols and daps and stuff and I've, you know, the
amount of gold that I've got has been completely dwarfed by some
people who just like won this jackpot basically from owning a
meme coin. So that's kind of like the
debate at at hand. My personal opinion is like,
look, all this information was like public and I made, you
know, made available to everyone and you as a crypto speculator
had a choice to make. It's like, do you want to spend
all your capital on farming daps and stuff or do you want to like
pay this jackpot, whatever, And that's totally up to you and
maybe you have it split between the two.
So I think for me, I was like, you know, I owned PAC Moon
before even the jackpot had started.
But I bought more after they started the jackpot because to
me it was quite clear that like it would have a high chance of
not only winning once, but winning multiple times.
Like it is like the ultimate best meme coin on blast.
And in my opinion, if you've meme coins have been so massive
this year and the biggest Solana on boarding event were meme
coins. Like people joined Solana just
to put it around the meme coins. So if you're trying to, like,
incentivize people to go on to blast and use it, I think the
prospect of an active meme coin community and a meme coin taking
off is actually much better way to get people, real users on
blast. Than farming daps for gold,
where most people like, let's be honest, if it's like I've been,
you know, firing these daps for a long time, it's like, yeah,
dude, but like, you're only farming them because you can get
gold and you're going to get paid.
If it wasn't for that, you wouldn't actually be using any
of this stuff. Whereas for PAC Moon, people
were actually buying this token as a meme without getting any
rewards. The jackpot thing was only very
recently. So you know if anything like it
is the most organic community and thing on blast because
people had owned it without expecting any rewards and now
people may be own it for the rewards because you know that
that's it's it's shown that it can win it a couple of times.
But before that like it's arguably the most organic
community because people weren't farming.
It was nothing to farm. You just own it and if anything
it's a disadvantage to own that rather than E or USDB on blast
because you didn't even get blast points for it.
So that's my $0.02 on it. Like, I understand why people
are pissed off, but I just think to me it was obvious that you'd
want to have your ships and this and not the other stuff
basically. Yeah, I think that's two
separate points. I think what I would say is that
if you were reading between the lines, the bright play was to
buy Pac-Man. I bought, I bought Pac-Man when
I heard about this happening, right?
I bought and I think I'm probably now have more gold than
people who were farming for the last six months and I barely had
any money on blast. So I think more you have to
separate like once the information was out there what
should you have done and separately is this good for the
protocol like do you think this is now good for the protocol.
I think it's a separate question.
I I think you can you can it's it's defensible to say well this
was the obvious move and everyone who did it has made
money but now you've got a bunch of people who are annoyed, would
like my guess now is that he's going to have to make some
changes right And pretty drastic ones because like I said, like I
came on I bought like a more decent clip of of PAC Moon and
yeah like I got a lot of gold and I have not been on blast.
Like I have not I haven't done anything on blast.
I just bought the meme coin because I was like, well this is
the trade, but. What's more valuable for, What's
more valuable for BLAST? Like you putting in, you putting
in, yeah, you putting in all that capital to speculate in the
meme coin and then winning some money.
I think having another look at it as a power user or 5000
people, you know trading watches and then who are instantly going
to stop trading watches once the gold is done like.
You tell me a little bit more about this.
So it has. Has the farming elsewhere been
negative EV for people? Because it feels like it maybe
has and I don't know. It depends.
I think there have been there's been some stuff where it's been
pretty positive EV like you haven't had to like district one
for example. You haven't had to really spend
any ETH like tiny amounts of ETH and you'll be able to wherever
you get there is like pure alpha.
I think something a lot of people got wrecked on was crypto
valleys and that yield token and you have to pile up that yield
token to you know to be competitive in the game and that
went down like 7080 or 90%. So I think people are a little
bit pissed that like that was the thing that just got crushed
and went down a lot and hasn't won yet And then this this one.
You know if Pack Moon won the exact same amount but they won
it like 2 weeks later after there were a few other winners.
I don't think the timeline would be as heated.
But I just think it's the fact that it's won twice in in four
days and very large amounts. People just like for fuck's
sake. But you know this thing is like
like no one's sitting there hand picking these things.
It it goes to show that it is actually it's proven that it's
actually not proven, but it does go to show that it has been
chosen at random or probability base and not like if they were
just hand picking these, they wouldn't pick the same one twice
in four days, right? There's definitely an algo to
this, but I would say that if I was sitting there objectively, I
don't think this is now good for the platform.
I think it's good to have one meme coin.
I agree with that concept and I. But like now I feel as though
you've got a bunch of people who are annoyed.
Like I would. I think I would be annoyed if I
hadn't, if suddenly like what I just did right?
Like, I think I'd be annoyed at me.
But you wouldn't though, because you had all the information and
you made your decision. You didn't you'd.
Be annoyed. I'd be annoyed.
Not at me. I'd be annoyed at the people who
who decided to to make it like that.
Because it has been like, in the space of a week.
Like how long has these lotteries gone for?
But the problem with that logic, Michael, is that you had all the
information, and with that information you decided to go
and buy a shit load of PAC Moon and then you made money, right?
So you can't really say I would have been annoyed if it wasn't
me because everyone had the same information and you made a
better decision than other people.
That is just the fact of the matter.
Yeah, so but like, not trying to be a Dick here, but like that is
what it is. And like, yeah, it's crazy that
it's won twice in four days, but it would have won anyway under
the current, like, metrics and probabilities and and
everything. So it just was the better trade
because you have a chance of winning a ton of blast gold and
you also have a chance of the token going a lot higher.
You have like multiple return streams.
OK, so let's take. Let's take away all the morals
of it. What do we What do we think he
does now? I think in my opinion, they
won't come out and publicly say they would change it because I
think that kind of admits that they were wrong.
And whether it's right or wrong I think is still up for debate.
But I wouldn't be surprised if they like lowered fiddle around
with some weightings, for example in the back end and and
then maybe the probability of Pat win to win again is lower,
but could they? They say like once you've won a
million, like that's it. They could do that.
They could say that seems like a.
Smarter way of doing it. Yeah, like they could say you
could only win three times or you can't win more than a
certain number of times within a certain time frame or something
like that. Yeah, because I think they
probably do want other meme coins to do well, right?
And they want other NFTS to do well and they want other things.
But like if, like you said, it does feel like it's a lot of
gold, and it's 50% currently probability that PAC Moon wins
it, it doesn't feel like the right way.
It just feels like a PAC Moon AirDrop, right?
It feels like they've given basically 1.5 million.
We don't know the probabilities or the alga.
That's the thing. And it could have been 3%, but
it just happened. You know, even if it was just
3%, it's still, there's still a possibility it can happen.
You know what I mean? So I also think he needs to
move. And I think he needs to.
My guess is that he will do some some form of a limit.
I I I thought about selling. I told you today, I felt thought
about selling to my PAC Moon. It's actually rallied.
But I feel as though if I go through the next moves here, I
don't see a world where PAC Moon continues to win.
And I reckon that causes that there's no good options here
because people who own PAC Moon and they're buying it right now
are probably sitting there going like, well, this is now the
obvious trade, but then. Yeah, like.
I think he needs to move quickly.
I think he needs to. He needs to move quickly.
It's fun in every scenario here in my opinion, but he's because
I think it's. I think people have been caught
off guard. I agree with you that like
that's not maybe his fault but I think the incentives was have
slight maybe we're not we're too aggressive for what he expected
that's that's what I would say. So that's that's been the only
drama I've seen in in in I would say NFTS and crypto.
It feels as though like I said, the meme coins are are a little
little bit soggy. A lot of the stories that were
doing well, not doing so well and then the only real ones that
rally but the platify coins on the back of that, on the back
back of that speech. So the top of my movers are
Trent Trump USA and Boden and PAC move obviously because on on
the back of that. I think the only yeah my my my
last comment would be you mentioned it would be good for
other mean coins to rally. I think you need one flagship
coin. You need a whiff.
You need a Pepe on blast for it to take off.
I think if you get a whiff for a Pepe like move on PAC moon then
inevitably other meme coins will start taking off and you know
there's a you can use pump dot fun on blast by the way like no
one it's been on blast since February or something like that.
So you know if you if PAC Moon can go to 500 mil or a billion
dollars wherever it is that needs to, then you're going to
see the Pump dot fun engine start turning on for BLAST and
you will see a massive meme coin community there and that will
then blast will already take off.
I think so, I think. I agree like a a a winner is is
important. I do agree with that too.
I just feel as though if it's a winner, that pisses off all the
other users and all the other users who've been using the
apps, the apps. I don't know if that's like a
winner or it's just like an artificial hump which people
will get pissed about. That's fair.
That's why we are. Winners now?