Yo-yo, yo, what up? What up?
Good morning, good morning. GMGM Wednesday most uses day of
the week March 12th. Sorry Wednesday, Adam 2025.
Look at that. Another beautiful day to have.
A beautiful day, but at least it was starting to be.
And then Canada said fuck you, but my car's in the house.
Tyler Logan, good morning. How you doing today?
I'm good. I'm I continue to be surprised
by your hatred for Wednesday. I feel like Wednesday is
actually like a typically like a really big day for us.
Like we have like the CPI Prince always coming on Wednesday.
I feel like Wednesday is like the pivot day of the week where
we get like the news which is going to dictate what happens
for the second-half of the week. So I don't know I.
Always, I think, I think Thursday is that day.
Like you're right, the news cycle is Wednesday, like fat,
like FOMC, usually all that stuff.
But Thursday, I don't know, turn it on Thursday.
You know what? I just because like Monday, I
like, because Monday I wake up and it's chaos and I love the
smell of napalm in the morning, you know, like there's nothing
like that like waking up and, and, and having to, to answer to
500 people at like 8:00 in the morning.
And then Tuesday's like you're still going.
But the Wednesday like, OK, fine.
Like bring me Thursday and Friday already.
I don't know. I, I, I, yeah, maybe I need to
stop, stop paying on Wednesday and we'll have better
Wednesdays. I don't know, maybe that's the
fine. We got a good print this morning
and then we're already dumping. So it's also part of this
market. But you know what, we will get
above that as well. But maybe, yeah, maybe I need to
have AI, need to have ChatGPT. Why I don't like Wednesday so
much. Yeah, it's a weird day.
Also, it's like, do I even for my workouts like Monday, I work
on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, but that's Wednesday off.
And what am I supposed to anyways?
Logan, what up, man? I'm pretty neutral on
Wednesdays. I like that it's Wednesday my
dudes. Frog meme.
I don't know if you guys know that one or not, but yeah,
everything is, is fine here. No sunshine today, which I guess
the market is reflecting a little bit at just this point in
time, but temperatures are still pretty good here.
So it's it's really difficult to find too much to complain about.
I asked ChatGPT Yeah. I mean, there is sunshine here
today. Finally.
It's actually warmer. I guess we got the Chicago heat,
but but we're getting this. ChatGPT, Why do I dislike
Wednesday so much? It's interesting.
You just like Wednesday. That's so funny.
Midweek slump. What?
See. Yeah.
Well, hump day. Yeah, that's the thing, right?
It's like in the middle. It's like, OK, well, lack of
progress. Sometimes Wednesday feels like
this week is in progress and quickly enough, and it feels far
away. OK, cool.
I mean, I don't work for weekends, but yeah, it could be
it. It could be it.
Routine burnout. If your week follows a pretty
repairive routine, Wednesdays might feel like a reminder that
you're still in the thick of it. Ah, that could be it.
It's like you're still in the thick of it, you know?
It's like, damn. Like, OK, I'm in the middle.
Of it all, that could be it, that could, that could be it,
the midweek, the midweek Blues. Anyways, anyways, today on the
show today, today market report, we'll talk about this top 1000.
We got a lot to talk about. We do with CPI print.
We got the market that pumped and immediately started to dump
some thoughts on the market. We got to talk about the weekly
running, not even daily running it's monthly runner.
Tyler needs to Tyler needs to let it off his chest.
OK, he wants to do a 10 minute segment on on please.
So we're going to have to do that and he has a thesis to
share with you. I hope you guys are ready sit
tight and then and then no gas, but robot spins.
So hopefully someone wins a crypto punk today on the show or
maybe I'll I'll fuck around. I have to I have to make the
spin. I'll try and put maybe some some
fun stuff in there. And last but not least, this
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Tyler, you tell me what's next? All.
Right, top story. CPI came in, folks.
Inflation in the United States is going down.
The numbers came in under expectation.
Crypto stocks briefly rallied on the news but are actively
reversing. You hate to see it.
We did see some big action, all folks, Pie up 20%.
Ron and Tia up 15% on the day. So there's a big movement in
all. There is a very interesting
situation that played out on Hyper Liquid.
We'll have to dive into this. It looks like Hyper Liquid was
hit with a $4 million loss after a $200 million whale each
unwinded. So that cost some attention on
the timeline. In macro news, looks like no
more White House crypto summits. One time thing.
Future summits will be smaller and more focused.
According to Bo Hines. We saw the House Financial
Services Committee, they're officially discussing stable
coin regulation, reviewing bills like stable and Genius X.
So those are live under review. The SEC did delay its decisions
on XRP, Solana and Cardano ETFs. It looks like those might be
closer to the October time frame.
At this point. We saw Coinbase launched crypto
trading in India, a big launch for them.
Second big or biggest country in the world?
It's a yeah, it's a huge market, right?
Yeah, it's essentially very big. Fidelity filed for an ETH
staking ETF. We talked to you yesterday.
Bitwise debuted that new ETF, which follows 21 companies
holding Bitcoin. Cantor Fitzgerald announced it
will utilize Anchorage Digital for its Bitcoin finance
business, $2 billion in additional financing
anticipated. Texas is back reintroduced its
second crypto reserve bill, this one proposing up to $250 million
in buying a Bitcoin and crypto. So that first bill just opens
the door for this. This is the one that actually
would dictate actual buying. So this one is bigger from a
purchase standpoint. And then our friend Logan, a new
report he wrote about this Geo blocking cost US users billions
of dollars in crypto airdrops. So we're gonna have to dive into
that. In token and protocol news,
Pudgy Penguin's partner with Shopify Pay and Helio to enable
paying with Pingu on the official Pudgy Penguin store
along with thousands of other Shopify stores.
Wintermute create a Wildcat V2 market.
They're seeking $75 million in public credit.
The offering APR is on USDC, wheat and and Bitcoin.
Kaido released real time data API to be used by their
applications and Mesh raised $82 million in the series.
Be led by Paradigm as they look to expand their stable coin
payments globally, rounding up the rest of the headlines across
AI and memes like the headline in AI Binance delisting several
base AI tokens. Really.
I and Invader kind of In a broader sign of market decline.
Memes were mostly green. Sailor was the overnight runner.
I missed this one. Soared 31,000%.
Hit $10 million. Please.
Arguably the biggest winner though on the day up 100%.
It's all hit 44 million right ahead of the show.
And then DRB from Grok continues to lead action on base.
It was up 30% to 34 million this morning as well.
And NFTSI think we broke the news yesterday, but Tapper
Wizards announced their upcoming Ordinals meant it's going to be
priced at 0.2 Bitcoin, not a cheap price tag. 2121 in supply
that is our. Wow, they're cooking.
Wow. There's a lot to take to take in
here. Let's quickly talk about CPI, if
you could. If you want to explain those,
those figures for the rest of us, I just see a bunch of
numbers on the board. I'm like, what the hell does
that mean? So apparently it came in good.
Yeah, the headline was USCPI came in at 2.8%.
Year over year estimates were 2.9 and then core CPI at 3.1%.
Year over year estimates were 3.2.
So still pretty close to in line, but but coming in under I
think, you know, stepping back what that means is we're
inflating at 2.8% looking at this one core metric year over
year. And I think what Powell's target
is 2%. So what we're making pretty
significant progress to get down to that number.
So the good cost of goods is maybe not going down, but
they're not, it's not increasing as fast as it was.
So you go to the store, you go to pay for gas.
Then we talked about this on the on the show yesterday when we
nailed this. Turns out gas prices are at a
four year low in the US right now.
Wow. So like that, that is
significant and prices starting to come down is one of the
impacts of of Trump policies that are being put in place
right now that that is what will enable how to cut rates and
drive rates down, which is clearly what Besant and Trump
are trying to do in the market right now.
So progress is being made. What we wanted to fade was a
surprise CPI hot print. And I think still the concern
over tariffs is that they will drive inflation up.
This tariff game, it seems like it takes more curves and twists
every day. Like yesterday.
It looks like Trump was maybe going to walk some of it back
now. I missed the headline this
morning. Folk, you were talking.
About yeah, because it happened like 5 minutes, 5 seconds before
I launched the show, yeah. Yeah, so, So what was that one?
That Canada is gonna impose retaliatory is that you said
retaliatory tariffs on the USA, 25% on aluminum and steel.
It's about on $30 billion worth of goods.
Actually, let me get you the actual headline.
The headline reads. The headline reads Cut down so
many posts. Canada announces 25% reciprocal
tariffs on $29.8 billion of United States imports, including
steel and aluminum. The tariffs take effect
tomorrow. So tariffs are coming.
It's like it's hard to get too excited about inflation coming
down until we see the impacts of these tariffs.
And they talked about selling foreign, someone just mentioned,
but I saw that too. They talk about selling $400,000
billion dollars, $400 billion worth of US bonds as well.
They talked about it doesn't mean they're going to do it, but
they definitely. Keep happening, stock market
opened up green and then it it is reversing.
I see the S&P up about 0.4% somewhat notably talked about
this yesterday. So like the mag 7 is down 20%
from peak. NVIDIA and Tesla were up quite a
bit ahead of the show. They were up about 6 to 8%.
So so they are outperforming yes and P they're outperforming
crypto majors as well. Taking a look at Bitcoin,
bitcoins up 2 1/2 percent but giving back gains.
So Bitcoin did hit 84 K right on the back of that CPI.
Everyone went Max long. Those Max longs are are actively
getting wiped out. Basically even on the day at
1885 hard coin to pump slom at 125, up 3%.
So it looks like the chop and and downturn is going to
continue. This soft CPI print wasn't
enough. Yeah.
To to really move that I don't think that's a large surprise.
And then folk, I saw you, you shared some macro thoughts this.
Morning. Yeah, just like I'm not an
analyst, I'm not a trader like that.
I just, but I do participate in the trade every day of my life
since four years, right. And we do host this show since 3
plus years. But I just read some thoughts
from Ovian. I was looking at everything
right now. It's just, it's just my gut
feeling. I was talking about it with all
being private. And he's like, yeah, I can't.
I you're right. He kind of agrees with me.
He's just saying, like, I, I'm looking at all this and
obviously I'm looking at these charts every day.
Don't mind the lines. Just my personal mental like
don't, don't use these lines as your lines, please.
I'm not a traitor. Like I don't do astrology.
I, I, I actually, I'm waiting for the blood moon.
I do real astrology. But, but basically, I, I, I, I,
I look at everything. I just don't think there's been
enough the pain slash like reset.
Like a reset takes time. When was Libra?
I was in Paris so it was exactly about a month ago right If I'm
not mistaken. Not even by the way.
No, it was doing my brothers birthday.
It's February 20th so it's been 3 weeks.
It's like a three-week reset, you know what I mean?
So it's like it's not in terms of, I just say from a term of
time and that the market needs to heal Yesterday Beanie post
something about the Kelster ventures wallets cashed out a
bunch of vaults and taking their money and how nothing's been
done yet. Like nothing's been even done
about this just yet. So I think about all these
different things and I'm like, there needs to be a, a, a reset.
And the reset is the healthiest thing, right?
Just like in your personal life when you do a little health
check and you, you know, I don't know, you're going to water fast
some shit and you need to reset your body.
Like, I don't know, like it takes some time.
So that's how I see it. Also, Trump economics are
volatile. So it's like the the way down is
fast, the way up will probably be fast as well.
You're never going to time it, which why people preach DCA, but
you don't know when. So maybe one day in two months
we'll wake up and we'll be pumping 10% per per major.
I don't know. So just doesn't feel like it's
out. And I guess I was right because
20 minutes later there was the tariffs on Canada, the can
tariffs that came out like we're trading headlines right now.
That's the worst thing. That means like that's the worst
thing. You're not even trading
technical fundamentals, you're trading headlines. the US
markets are not really recovering.
Tesla did bottom forbid and there's like a recovery bounce
on that as well. So that's you're right.
So there will be bounces like Bitcoin just bounced from 77 to
83 K, that's a big move. Solana bounced from 113 to 130.
That's a big move. It is different situation of its
own right. All it's moved quite big, which
is good, but you know, there's just not enough juice right now
to keep the things going. Also like every single time
there's a tiny bit of bounce, everybody goes long.
I mean, Wizard of Soho posted the he shares this often.
There's $100 million worth of longs as soon as we pump like
2%. Like you can't keep doing this
in the hyper liquid situation that we'll talk about, but
people keep going long absurd amounts of money.
So there's there's a natural thing, but then you zoom out,
you're like, well, what Tyler keeps talking about, like rumble
about Bitcoin in governments are buying Bitcoin.
Laws are passing in Congress that they want to pass big buy
bitcoins, the taxes, Oklahoma, all these states are probably
going to start buying Bitcoin at some point.
You know, the trenches will heal.
There's a renter. Please love to see that DRB love
to see that. Like there is signs of life,
right, But it's going to it's going to take a bit.
We're in the middle of a trade war and and we're going to have
to wait a little bit. That's just the way I see it.
So it's not even bearish. It's just like my outlook will
never change. But there's definitely, you
know, there's definitely lack of appetite right now in the
market. Yeah, I mean, I think that that
lines up with with a lot of PO VS I've seen.
So Kathy Wood decur to a nice article kind of summarizing her
thoughts yesterday. She basically thinks we're in
this, we're at the tail end of a rolling recession.
She's looking to productivity gains as the catalyst for what
is going to drive a potential rebound and a a deflationary
rebound in H2. So July, you know, which is
what, 3 months away? Three or four months?
So many roads. Lead to the summer, Yeah,
Everybody's talking about May, June, like July.
Like it's just like it's funny, but ironically we're talking
about the summer as well. Early on the show this year or
like end of year last year, we were talking about this.
So we're making jokes about it, but it looks like it's starting
to happen. We were really joking about how
June is going to be recovery another.
Mando first said that we're just going to like, imagine what
shopping for six to nine months would would do.
That's when the. Joke starts right and we.
Really, I didn't believe it. I didn't want to believe it.
I had one. Percent belief in that at the
time, yeah. It looks like that very well
could be the case. So like as much as I want AV
shape recovery starting in two weeks, right?
Lining up with like the M2 bottom, maybe an?
Up trend starts in two weeks though, Tyler, like you may be
right in the sense that maybe slowly it won't be V shape, but
maybe slowly we just we need this trade war shit to be done.
Like, you know, Trump is good for a lot of good reasons like
he does, he's cleaning house, he's resetting the thing, but
that comes at a cost. And just now you either believe
that he's going to do the right thing.
I know now as soon as sentiment is shifting like we love Trump
when he pumps our bags and we hate Trump the second the market
is done. But what if in three months it
works so? I think it can and like while I
I still think, I think my base case now is probably like chop,
maybe chop decline through June, I guess probably, but how much
lower? Right, like 77 was so low like I
think because crypto sells off before everything right guys
like crypto 24/7 we're the highest assets so we get
hammered the most. So 77 K to me is close to a
bottom. It's not, but it's close. 113 so
long went to 113 like from 290, you know what I mean?
So we've seen a correction here. It was one of the rare times I
actually agreed with Arthur. Arthur Hay said, yo, this is a
proper bull, right? Like Arthur said, 73 K is going
to be stone cold bottom because that's going to be a 30%
pullback, 36% correction from 110K all time high, which is
very normal for bull market. I actually agree with him now.
I didn't agree with him. Then how in the fuck he's right
I. Agree I I so I think we're in a
good DCA spot like a like this is not the time to to to go 100
X long, right. We're going to North sell.
The bottom. But yeah, I, I think we're,
we're much closer to the bottom than we are to what the next top
is going to be for sure. I think we'll, we'll see a nice
recovery on this. And like you just mentioned,
Bitcoins down 30. I mean, at 77, it was down a
full 30%. It's down 25% right now.
I mean, Tesla like is another major, right?
That's why we're we're talking about it.
Tesla was down 55%. That seems like a pretty decent
spot to to start the DCA. And if you think that that
company is going to continue to be important over the next
decade, they just came out and said they're going to double
production of cars this year over last year.
NVIDIA down 25% like the reason I'm saying this is like I think
there's some people maybe come into realization that we're
going into this downturn, but we've been in a downturn for
three months that that's my point.
So like these assets are down quite a bit from their their
local tops, which I think is some hope here.
Even if if we do chop decline for another two to three months,
I don't think it's it's my base case is not another 25% down
from here for these assets. I think that would be.
That's more than a recession. That's like starting to.
Like a. Depression I.
Would be in this depression yeah I mean yeah, Bitcoin could go
down to the 10% really but that that'll be like 30% total it's
just I don't know we'll see I mean we keep building you know
that's it there's nothing else we can do we keep on keep it on
anyways what else is good in this world right now there's
some. Good for price action.
These companies keep piling in to to Bitcoin.
So, so shaky traders might be selling, but more and more
companies are acquiring. I think Rumble was the latest.
They acquired 17,000,000, I believe was the number of
Bitcoin. I think Metaplanet bought more
in the last day. So that's going to continue.
We saw Texas introduce this new Bitcoin bill where they can
purchase up to 250 million. This is just one state, but
their their first Bitcoin bill, which which opens the door for
this got very strong approval. I don't think it's, it's been
completely signed, but there are there are signs of of optimism
there in in that state. So those are positive news.
I thought the White House Crypto Summit was positive news.
Yeah, I agree, but they're not going.
To do any more big crypto summits with all these heads,
the the vision is they're going to do smaller working groups
basically, you know, bring in the folks that need to be in the
room talking about these specific issues.
I believe they they said mining investment in stablecoins.
I I think with, with the the three initial areas, I'll have
to go back to the article that they are going to be focusing on
which the mining. I mean, shout out to Mando.
That was one of his big predictions, and I didn't see a
whole lot of other people really talking about Yeah, Mara.
Was in the room the other day and I think they're big Bitcoin
miners, right? Yeah, the largest, yeah, yeah.
So Mara was in the room the other day at the summit.
But what do you say? I mean, Logan, what do you make
of the news? I thought it was really good, I
think. I think the other part here that
is I, I don't know, maybe not super important from like an
actionable perspective, but just from a crypto Twitter
participation perspective is that you're not going to get the
major headline that we got that we all got so excite, you know,
that most of the timeline got so excited for and got over their
skis about what would come of it.
These things that are a little bit smaller, maybe chip away at
things with a a much clearer focus protects us a little from,
you know, over expecting and and maybe then from over promising
as well. So I like this versus, you know,
what we had seen previously, which felt like maybe more pomp
and circumstance than any real substance, right?
This feels more like substance to me, or at least in that
direction, which I'm a fan of. Yeah.
I mentioned this yesterday in my replies.
Everyone was just racing to dunk on the White House summit and
people like groveling in in front of Trump.
But like, the reality is like this was a kickoff meeting for a
larger initiative. You got all the stakeholders in
the room. You've got the head of the
project with Trump in the room. It's 15 minutes.
You get the stakeholders, you align on the vision and then you
go on, you know, with with your life.
And then when the real action gets done in in smaller working
groups over the coming weeks, yeah, like, where are my
consultants at? That's how projects were kicked
off and executed, right? So I mean look.
They didn't tell us, hey, we're going to come and pump your bags
ahead of the summit. They said there's a summit, but
we decided that they're going to go and pump our bags.
You know Eric. Trump did say by the yeah yeah.
That that is true that yeah, Eric, look, Eric, Eric, Eric
fuck, Eric's tweets are crazy. I've been revisiting guys.
I've been revisiting some of his tweets.
I. Don't know.
It's pretty wild, like just a nine to five one and like thank
me later tweet on Ethereum. That is a yeah.
I mean, he wasn't there. He's not really part of the you
know what I mean? Yeah, it's.
Just our KOLKOLS aren't always in the room that that may be a
shocker to some folks. Yeah.
Yeah, I'm person. You can while we're chatting,
World Liberty Phi is down substantially on their
investments. I saw that.
I think they're down like. 100 million no the.
Post was saying 300 or 400 but it's probably a little more now.
You think they're down? More than $300 million.
Well, because when? The post was made.
I'm pretty sure ETH hadn't crashed again.
Because ETH is. Their biggest position, Yeah.
And their average is probably like 3K or I mean it's got to be
in the high twos and a minimum. Let me find it.
I don't know. There was, yeah, I, I forget
what it was, but someone put a post out from their buys.
I mean, if you think about it, remember the big in negotiation
post about like $67 million worth of BTC, 6A47 mill worth of
this 47 mill of that. Those are all down probably 50%.
I don't. I don't think this is up to date
because they did a lot of transfers and stuff if you guys
recall. And they're buying dips too.
But. At least the deployer wallet the
Arkham tracks has the profit and loss around 50 million.
That's just OK. OK, OK.
That's just. This wallet though or this
collection of wallets, so that I don't believe that is that's
cumulative across all holdings. I'm sure it's larger than that,
but at least for those that it's tracking under this entity
labeled World Liberty 5, it has it around 50 million.
Yeah. OK every time I scroll through
my page there's like another please meme it's so funny.
We'll get there in a second. It's.
Just. These macro headlines here, the
Coinbase in India News is important.
We need to talk about that briefly.
I see that. So they registered.
With India's financial intelligence unit, their FIU to
enable crypto trading services in India, which they are
describing as one of the most dynamic markets for crypto and
on chain innovation. I think here, man, I've been
saying this Coinbase is cooking right now and and they are
they're accelerating it is how I would describe it like they're
they're getting into tokenized assets on train trading 24/7
like that's clearly a direction for them.
It just rolled out their perps products for Bitcoin and ETH.
Now they're getting into India. This is in like 2-2 months since
Trump was inaugurated and we finally got the, you know, the
signals from the SEC, they aren't going to go after them,
right? So I am impressed with the speed
at which they're moving right now and I expect it to continue.
So Bulls Coinbase, and they are. In the room where it's happening
very clearly Brian is he's he's right there alongside.
I mean, say what you will about the pay for play type thing, I
mean they obviously participated quite heavily in in.
I mean that's just. Capitalism, right?
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I know.
But I mean, it, it's, yeah, it's, it's paid off thus far and
likely for the foreseeable future.
Yeah. Folks from Breaking News here
just tweeted Coinbase's rival Finance just got backed with a
$2 billion investment from Abu Balby's MGX.
That's the single largest investment into a crypto company
and the largest investment ever paid in crypto.
Holy shit. That's a big investment.
Yes, I'm not. I'm not as familiar with MGX
here. It's their, it's their.
Isn't that their own exchange AI, advanced technology invest.
Oh no, it said the Abu Dhabi Oh that's M3, sorry, or M2 MJX Abu
Dhabi based AI and advanced technology investor have
announced a landmark 2 billion. Wow, that's a big ass
investment. Wow.
It really is Wow 2. Billion dollar investment.
Damn, so so. Big money across the globe is
piling in, but you see. That's the thing.
Like all the little things, man, All the little things.
It's the little things that make something great, right?
Wow, this is good news. I mean, good for finance.
I mean, it's funny you're talking about Coinbase and this
comes out and then we talk about hyper liquid.
But but that is some good news. Wow, $2 billion investment.
Damn, it's big. I I think it has to be seen as a
positive sign that that there are a lot of people who believe
that this crypto industry is not going to 0.
I mean, it's definitely not, yeah.
I mean, especially those stable coin news that are coming out
non-stop and everything. You know, the secret killer here
is Besant. Man, I, I, I don't know, I feel
like he's going to do well. I don't know, we'll see.
But you know, he was calling for just .25% terrorist.
By the way, I saw an article from FT from back then.
But I think Besant's going to going to going to do well with
the, with the USA. We'll see.
But strikes me off as someone who who wants who wants to make
it happen anyways? Mr. Tyler, Speaking of
exchanges, what the fuck is going on in Hyper Liquid?
That was crazy I read up this. Morning.
Like wow can you like TLDR for people who may not understand
including me? Yes, so hyper liquid they came
out and made a clarifying post kind of explaining so it looks
like this trader OX F3F4, they went long a substantial amount
of Ethereum. I want I think 200 million with
it. It looks like up to 40X
leverage. I'll have to.
I'll get the exact 3. $100 million liquidation.
So they had unrealized P&L, they withdrew which lowered their
margin and they were liquidated. So this was a liquidation that
happened on purpose. So like this is not, this is a
rare case, a very extreme case. And through this HLP, the hyper
liquid, you know, the version of of JLP effectively lost $4
million over the, the past 24 hours.
I think that was largely driven because of this trade.
So it seems like this person, this actor did this on purpose.
It was. Attack.
Is maybe the wrong word because we think about that more for
exploits and hacks. I mean, he's just a.
Trade that he did it. Yeah, it was a.
Trade to kind of go after hyper liquid to a degree.
It looks like hype has responded by lowering their Max leverage.
So for Bitcoin it's going to be lowered to TO40X.
ETH lowered to 25 X to increase the maintenance margin
requirements for larger positions.
So correct. Me if I'm wrong he went giga
long which pulls the order books up people to copy trade and
followed up because of 300. It's like an absurd long on
hyper liquid. He was shorting it on Binance
apparently, or he was shorting it.
I don't know. I don't want to say Binance, but
that's what I read. So call it whatever platform
he's shorting. It's like crazy.
He removed some of his margin, therefore his liquidation price
goes higher. He gets clapped there tanking
the market and he's got a short at the same time printing he's
taking hyper liquid is 4 million and you could argue that he
could even be short. Hyper liquid itself hype itself
from the FUD. Is that kind of what happened?
Yeah. That's what happened is and as a
result, Hyper Liquid had to take on that Ethereum position,
correct and. Therefore, they lost $4 million
on in in the in the in the midst of that right.
So they, they had to go and then sell that effectively that's how
they lost the $4 million. So like we've, we've talked
about JLP on the show, right? We, we praise that product.
A part of the praise, part of the reason why people are like
it is you get the fees from perps trading, but you can also
take losses yeah, when the the the perps books get hit and
that's. On hyper.
Liquid here, Yeah, there's a. Good, good thread here.
But OK, so you made OK. It's all this from $2,000,000.
Wow, interesting. Yeah, so the trade.
End up making money that's quite that they they were able to pull
off here. So then there's, you know, the
the tinfoil hats is that, you know, finance was behind this or
Yeah, yeah. Tinfoil.
Yeah, good thing calling Tinfoil because that's the finance, but
it's could be Binance. He could have had on any.
Yeah, we, we. Don't know.
We don't know. That wow whale games.
But you see, like this market is so fucked up right now.
Like back to the point I was kind of making earlier.
It's like there's so much going on.
There's so much weird shape going on.
Like I, I, I don't know you. Know the one the impacts.
So like I've seen a lot of people already kind of calling
for hyper liquid to adjust their, their margin requirements
and, and how, how high you can go.
And I've seen like a model proposed where for larger size,
you know, you, you lower those multiples and then you can keep
the 50 XS, you know, capped under a certain amount.
So I am curious we'll see more updates coming from Hyperloc
after they've had a chance to, to process this.
This is why I. Was saying yesterday, I like the
prediction market stuff because there is always somebody smarter
than you. There's always somebody who's
thought through every second order effect.
And you know, I'm not claiming market manipulation or anything
like that, but just like these are games that the average
person can't play, right? You could call it manipulation.
Yeah, sure. Right.
But even aside, I mean, seems like it's above board, fair,
whatever. For the most part, somebody just
took advantage of what was there.
And you know, kudos to smart people who can figure those
things out. That's not me.
I know where I need. To be and it's not doing that
speaking. Of which I'm surprised that
after all this like stuff this morning, no one's slamming the
no here on the sub. 80K on Sunday.
It's coming, you know, I was just.
Thinking how I might I might take more because the yes.
Is I was surprised guys, I I thought more because I'm on the
yes, like I'm not actually on the yes, but mentally I'm on the
yes, but like I was surprised because I thought more people
would be on the no side here given how embarrassed the
timeline is. Like what's the F&G at?
I would what? Yeah, that's surprising.
You know why that's so surprising is coin market cap
has it at 19. Extreme fear, yeah.
Surprised to see. Alternative.
So much, yeah. Look, I don't know the
difference between the two. I'd just rather go by
alternative because that's the OG, Sure.
And coin market cap is all my finance.
There's this whole thing. But you're right, like that's
actually interesting because usually coin market cap is
higher. I guess maybe because you know
what, you're right, there was so much fear and I feel like that
was just accepted it. Maybe that is right, you know,
maybe we all just accepted. Talk about you guys.
How do you guys feel? You guys seem cautious but not
fearful to me, both of you, am I right?
I'm. In the middle, I'm in the I'm in
the middle somewhere, maybe slightly bearish just because I
I think there is so much uncertainty and every day, as
you know, we've been talking about on this show, every day
bring something new and the the good news isn't good enough for
the price. You know what I mean?
Call that expectations from market participants or whatever
the case is. It's just so that that's why I
think I'm like slightly bearish. It just from an emotional
standpoint, I'd probably be to the life of that, but otherwise
I'm I don't feel bad, you know, like I'm I'm long Bitcoin long
term. I'm not like selling bags or
anything. I'm just here so.
All right, I love that. What about you, Tyler?
How do you feel? Yeah, I think I've.
Gone through all the emotions of the of the anger capitulation, I
I don't think I ever really got to to depression.
No, not. Yet.
Life's too good to to be depressed over coin prices.
So I, I don't think I'll, I'll get there, but I'm kind of like
in an acceptance is how I would describe it.
We're likely going into this downturn.
Maybe it's a recession. Recession is two quarters of
negative GDP. Seems possible.
I've accepted that. And but I'm not selling like
I'm, I'm still holding my long positions.
I'm not a swing trader. So definitely long Bitcoin, long
a couple of a couple of fun new meme coins.
So there is some excitement in my life and maybe we'll talk
about that here in a little bit. So I'm still, I'm cautiously
playing still and, and holding mostly.
I love that. I love that I got to post this
market. This is interesting.
I'm just thinking about how they I'm the same.
I don't know where I'm at on that fear and greed index.
I'm not going to give myself a number, but that the 30s
actually not yours. Well, I'm just there.
I'm just there for the ride. I'm probably a little lower.
Than that, I guess from how I'm acting because like in in agreed
mode, I would be like more aggressively buying.
I guess knowing myself, I'm not really aggressively buying much.
I'm not like full on selling. So maybe I'm like 2530, maybe 34
is right. I don't know.
I love that. This is great.
I mean, look, Speaking of this, I mean, you say this, but you
are in the trenches, Tyler. I feel like this is the perfect
segue here. Before I go there though, before
I go there, I do want to make give the code out.
So rafflebot dot XYZ, rafflebot dot XYZ, the code is please
PWEASEPWESE an honor in honor of look at hate to be that guy that
I missed the code today. You did not king.
The code is right there in front of you.
It's now here for the first time, please.
So all you have to do is go to raffle ball that XYZ, enter your
X enter the code, please. And every single Tuesday,
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, we give away either right guy or
crypto punk. It's that simple.
And Friday someone won a crypto punk.
If you get 3 crypto punk, we get about one and a half million
dollars away in last year. So yeah, I I do love please, I
just own 0. But I love the meme.
I was telling Tyler this morning I'm like, fuck here.
She's sad, but. Anyways.
That's the code. That's the code, Tyler.
I'm giving this up to you because you, you're quite the
please guy here everybody. Buys please the price they
deserve for oak. So you deserve a little higher.
Like the news here is that please did hit a new all time
high briefly this morning after the CPI news came in and hit 44
million. It has been consistently one of
the top movers on the Solana volume board, Solana Dex board.
It's like $20 million in the it's showing signs of life.
So when it first came out and hit 30 million and then started
going straight down right, everyone's like that.
The the consensus narrative was OK, This is just a sign of where
the trenches are. 30 million is the highest we can get a coin
now. And and this one is going to
fail like all the others. Looks like the meme itself, like
let's put the token aside for a second.
The meme itself is showing real strength.
It it's hilarious. It's adoption is accelerating
And on the the the news over the weekend was he officially like
endorsed the meme again, not the token.
He he endorsed the meme by posting like that.
Leonardo DiCaprio posting meme with this.
The meme is hilarious. It is very organic.
Melo would like to standpoint. This is one of the best memes
we've seen in years. I think that's objectively true.
I agree. With you.
Even fartcoin now I'm I'm a I'm a pivot back to token talk a
little bit. Yeah, fartcoin is hilarious, but
it's not like it's much of A meme.
It's just tied to like fart jokes, right?
Like so like, I I wouldn't describe it as more of like a
pure meme. Please.
This is a meme like or the this, this veins like whatever we want
to call it. Like this is a meme.
Oh. My God, people are are having.
Fun with it is this. On TikTok, I don't know.
I don't have TikTok but me neither.
I mean, it's in our circles. I'm just wondering.
It hasn't been sent to me elsewhere, you know what I mean.
You think this is? Only CT No No.
I'm sorry, I'm I'm sort of asking.
I'm sort of asking. I'm not.
I don't know. Interesting.
I I think this is permeated beyond CT.
I mean, we have. Hundreds of people listening to
us on video and audio. You guys let us know.
Like do have you seen this tweet, this meme permeate on
outside of CT? I mean, Vance isn't.
Tweeting something he saw on CT. I mean, they are on Twitter with
this administration. Yeah, you're right.
And then if you want show, I mean the the chart does, yeah,
let's go. Let's go back to the chart here.
It looks good dude. This is just higher highs every
time. I'd love to see that.
Higher highs here. Wow, what happened here?
Was there a catalyst here? Was that when he posted?
Yes. So that is when Vance posted it
and then the second leg up was when Elon retweeted it.
Wow. So like that is definitely what
kind of brought it back to life or you can you can see it in in
the charts there. Like it was kind of a little
bleed out. Why I like this is it's ten days
old. You've had folks be able to
accumulate this in that, you know, sub $20 million range.
You've had some you've had time for the early buyers to start to
be able to sell this thing. Now with all this being said,
obviously this mean coin market is total garbage, right?
Of course. Like.
This is not like you're going to there are going to be lower
entries like like for sure like this thing is going to continue
to dip. Maybe it makes new lows, maybe
it goes straight to zero, I don't know.
But it is a very fun. I mean, even the chart looks
good. I like it.
I love it. Actually.
I don't, I don't have it. I don't own it.
I haven't bought anything or traded in forever.
But I think I think it's great. I think it's so funny.
I think you need that, right? Like also like we talked about
this in the chap I may as well talk about here.
Like you need like the daily runner shit is horrible for the
trenches. Memes don't work.
Why did Pepe work? Pepe had was on its own lane.
It was Pepe then turbo came out. Remember that's it.
And then out of nowhere stems mog mog went from zero to 1 1/2
billion dollars in a year and a half.
Not in it took and then went to 40 mil.
I remember that because I was in that one mil and then we got the
mega retrace like 12 mil. Then we had six months of 12 mil
paid paid and then we started grinding up all the way to corn
business than $1.5 billion, but even that took months.
So it's like you got to have that.
I think I love this in the meme. I actually I am rooting for this
meme. I hope this meme goes to a
billion dollars now in this environment probably won't, but
I just I'm just saying like I want it and it's really good and
I and I do think this has a chance to go higher.
Now look tomorrow Bitcoin goes to 73 K.
Please is getting fucking slapped.
Bitcoin bounces. I think please bounces too,
because it bounced with the market this morning and it
bounces with the market every time and JD Van Singh going
nowhere, right? He's leading the vice president
of the United States of America. Now, some people are seeming to
say that it's a broader Twitter meme now, not really as much on
Instagram and TikTok, but that makes.
Sense but you. Know their bear markets have and
down trends. Also have memes meme coins.
Meme coins are forever. Memes are forever.
Culture doesn't die in the bear market, right?
So I like it dude, I I love that you were in it.
I think it's so good. I love you just.
Called it Bitcoin Beta live on the show so I I I appreciate.
It but no. I you described a Bitcoin beta,
you said if Bitcoin goes up it goes up and when Bitcoin goes
down that that's beta. My friend, you heard it here
first. You can blame for Oak if this
one fails like all the others. I'm never going to win, Logan.
Come on, man. Time in here, dude.
Like, save me. Save me.
What do you I think? I think well, unfortunately you
did sort of say that, but it's the good memes are all sort of
Bitcoin beta, right. You're you're OK.
I don't think you can really step that of line.
I I like this beam as well. I do not own any.
I'll buy the bit. Participating.
I think actually my favorite part about it is I don't know if
you've pulled up the Puiz thing on like Coin Gecko, for example,
the little, the little image is him in the what you call those
little beanie spinner hats things.
It looks. It looks.
Ridiculous and hilarious. Yeah, right there at the top.
Actually, it's in the top. There you go.
I guess it's not a spinner hat, but it's it's really good.
I see it as far as token logos go, it's tough to adopt that so.
Incredible. That's a good logo.
I know, I know. We've got a few minutes left
here and Logan, I want to get to your story here in yes, quickly.
Let's let's quickly talk to the AI market because it is getting
wrecked. AI16Z is that 180 million arc is
now is about to drop out in the top ten.
Whoa. I haven't followed that.
Yeah, it's down. To 16 banker is.
Cooking, though? Banker bought.
Been fucking running like crazy. Yeah, Banker.
And Clanker have been strong. Clanker's top ten coin.
Now let's see where Banker is. Banker's top 20.
It's actually 1% but the board looks terrible and Oh my God.
Bubble his burst. And I don't know that these are
going to rebound if I'm being. I don't know either, dude.
I don't know. I I want them to I don't, I
don't, I would never root for anyone, you know, to to lose
money. I I think Tashi is trying to
build a a strong product, but the valuation bubble burst and
even ARK. Can you justify a $69 million
valuation for ARK and and what it's delivered so far?
Do you ask me as a founder or as a trader?
Because as a founder all these valuations are still too high.
I think that's the. Reality.
Yeah, it's the truth. I mean, there's, you know,
there's at some point, you know, when all these things were like
500-345-6700 million, like you guys were attributing half a
billion dollar market cap in valuation to an AI reply guy.
You know, we talked about this early on, right when remember
when I first really didn't believe in it all and then I
started kind of trading it. But if you go back to that and I
can't even say I told you so because then I was like, I was
pilled. I was looking at this could
work. But we, I don't think none of us
really believe that the valuations were true values,
right? For like, what's being built?
It's just a memetic value. We talk about this a lot.
Yeah, they were. Trying to make premiums I I
still thought even knowing it was a bubble that that like the
IT would last longer. Like AI?
16 Z like the ones that have like who are actually being used
building code bases. I I thought they would have a
stronger floor than this. I would be lying If I you're
right, it's. It's, it's intense.
Wow, look at this. It is intense.
Brings. Up that one, yeah, but then you
have. What banker is it?
This one BNKR which is killing it?
I mean, this is beautiful. It's a great chart squeeze
chart. Yeah, so.
Banker's good, at least. What do you want to like?
Is that amidst everything being down, there is still some things
that are working and they're going up.
And this is what tells me that this is a good sign for me.
Now you can tell me. Permit bulls always looking for
the glass half full. Yes, but Clanker banker, the DRB
thing going on. I have a friend that caught that
trade early on sent it. I didn't buy because I'm not
really buying anything right now, but he cooked.
He made good money. He wasn't expecting to make me
what 1020? That's a lot fucking ton of
money right in this market, especially look, maybe this is
not as nice as a dip right now, but still like it was nice right
went to nearly 50 million. So there's trades been.
Made still, Yeah, there's for those who are sticking around
and paying attention. Like there are opportunities and
they're easier. To catch like it's not like I
caught him because I'm not active, but I feel like if I was
actually trying I have caught please because you were talking
about it early on these and shit.
My homie is like all over DRB and banker.
Like he's big in the base eco. He trades only base like it's
not. They're not hard to catch.
If you ask me, there's no. Noise.
There's no. Noise.
It's not hard to count, but. Like, if you're paying any
attention, like, it's obvious, like what the top meme coin
plays have been for the last week, right?
Yeah, there's only a handful of options.
Also, they rhyme banker and clanker.
Boom. It's that easy.
You know that's how. Easy, they killed my hand.
Load all these fuckers but Logan you.
Got run us through this Geo block and how it costs us
billions of dollars because I'm pissed.
Let's talk about Logan's story, yeah?
Sure thing a sad story for US residents, of course, but
there's a report from Dragonfly Capital, big VC, of course,
crypto VC about the state of air drops and the fact that
regulatory issues and you know, the lacking of clarity and all
that and Geo blocking for big air drops Eigen layer.
And they are they used the sample of 12 Etherium based very
notable air drops cost US users anywhere from like 1.8 to 2.4
billion in revenue. And on top of that, they go
into, and I encourage people to of course, read my article, but
then also to read the report. You know, they, they point to
the lost revenue in tax revenue as well for both States and the
federal government, you know, which is on the order of
depending on the estimates you use.
And they use some larger data sets as well.
You know, could be anywhere from 300 to 1.1 billion for the
federal government and around 250 million for state
governments that they missed on revenue just because they
wouldn't let US users, right? The regulatory issues wouldn't
let US users claim tokens. So the really great part about
this is, you know, one of the issues I think we have in crypto
is, well, many, but one of them is, you know, we are often very,
very quick to criticize without potential solutions.
Dragonfly actually offers some, you know, kind of regulatory
recommendations, you know, to liken air drops to credit card
rewards and things like that. So again, for the sake of time,
please go read the article in the No.
We can talk about it. This is crazy.
I mean as someone building something, we have to geofence
the USA right? Why is that?
It's it's the law. There's I know this Trump's
America and they're fixing things for crypto companies, but
it's just for now it's the law. For example, production markets
are still not fully legal in the United States of America.
So Cal she won in court and was able to come back.
You saw at the end of the elections and run election
markets. Cal, she's actually the more
legal one when in terms like the the doing you can't run a sports
book really on prediction markets, which is why we're not
really doing sports markets. We're doing a OS F1 is is is is
the Ferrari going to podium? Right.
There's there's nuance to what you can do and can't do.
And we're not allowed to serve them.
Now. We can't control whether people
are not going to take a quick flight to Mexico.
You know, fuck the wings in other Sims.
But you know, it's it's just how it is.
It sucks. France is the same boat and a
lot of others, you know, for the longest time we love to say like
bring back Biden because the prices are down now with since
Donald Trump is in. But dude, like this is all
because of the last administration and it's going to
change. I actually think locks and I
believe that within three months there's going to be a change
where we're going to be able to remove all geofence in America.
I, I'm hopeful for that. I'm still so you described it
for prediction markets. I'm still more curious of like a
more general protocol like is Jupiter allowed to do an AirDrop
to U.S. citizens at this point in time?
I think the. Issue is, and of course not a
legal or tax expert or whatever, I think the issue is just the
uncertainty. And so then you, you place the,
you place the risk on the protocols right themselves, like
which protocols are willing to eat that risk at this point in
time. And that's what's that's what's
really difficult. It's like nobody actually knows
like you could do that the risk of the.
SEC will come after you like that's what you're right.
Yeah, not maybe not necessarily the SEC, right, but like some
regulatory body could potentially sanction you for,
you know, securities violations or what that would be, of course
the SEC but I I don't know, right?
That's that's the risk and it's it's sort of outlined a little
bit in this report from Dragonfly as well, some of the
risks. And there's just even now, you
know, and the great strides have been taken, right?
The SEC has dropped cases against all the major players.
Investigations have concluded, but even now, in particular with
air drops, there is not, there's not that clarity just isn't
there yet and that's the stuff that's necessary for what it's.
Worth I think like let's say tomorrow decide to like remove
the Geo fence. I'll talk about our own shit.
If I decide to like remove the the Geo fence in America and we
decide to do a Marian air drop or a claim.
I don't think they'll come after you if you do things right and
you're building something good. Like it's not a Ponzi, it's not
a scam, but the risk is still not this like tomorrow, like
right now I call the dads and yo turn off the geofence in the USA
for Myriad. I generally do not believe
they'll come after us, but I'm not willing to risk a 40%
company at the expense of that. Yes, do.
You know. What I mean, it's a big gamble
and it's not worth it when you have people's lives at risk,
like, you know, people. So it's just it's not worth it.
But I do. That's why I'm still bullish
because this administration has actually made a ton of change
from a legal framework standpoint.
Like I asked Donald Trump back in September, you know, are you
guys going to build the go framework in the USA for for
crypto? Yes, and they're doing it right.
This what's happening. And again, you were saying about
the summit thing earlier. Those little more focus group
summits are great. I hope there's going to be a
summit on prediction market. I was going to be a middle
summit on like sax and sax and all this stuff.
So it's good. And so we're getting there.
We're definitely getting there, I guess.
I guess that's the bulk, one of the bulk cases for this crypto
regulatory framework that SAX is that he has been asked, Yeah, I
mean. I think everybody uses AVPN,
right? But I think also a lot of people
don't. So a lot of the USI think VPN.
Blocks is a is a is a hurdle. It blocks people.
It is a hurdle. 100% I still get a punch.
People tell me oh I can't use this and that I'm I ain't going
to tell you use a VPNI can't you know what I mean?
Article. On Trump's desk where he can see
the tax money that they lost, right.
Like how how good of a pitch is that?
It's like get a regulatory framework, turn off the Geo
blocks and now you increase your tax revenue like.
Yeah, All right, Doge. Doge will be tweeting about
this. Yeah, Where's big?
Balls. Big balls.
Yeah, we need to get. This in the hands of Trump.
Ironically, one of the doge guys from Montreal, I found out went
to McGill University. It's funny, right?
And I'm from Montreal. From Montreal.
Anyways, no, I'm not big balls. But anyways, yeah, that's a
great article, Logan. I love it.
For people who are curious, I mean, did you post that?
I want to retweet it. Anyways, you guys can find it on
on Logan's X page. It's for there for sure.
Yep. Anyways, so that's a good
roundup. I think.
Everybody hang tight. Looks like we're selling off a
little bit more here. Back in 81.
Yeah, it's crazy, bro.