All right, good morning. Good morning, GMGM.
Folks. Welcome to another episode of
FOMO Hour. This is episode 195, five away
from the big 200. Next Friday's show is going to
be a special because I'm already excited.
Episode 202, hundred episodes of FOMO Hour, folks, today is
Friday, September 6, 2024. Four 4/4 it's cooler overcast
morning here in Chicago today. It is fairly cloudy.
Feels like fall. The future of the US economy
also feels a little bit cloudy after a shaky jobs report this
morning. And now all eyes are on Jerome
Powell and how deep of a cut he is ready to make on those
interest rates. We're going to break it all down
on today's show. No for Rogue, but big news Frog
is back on Monday. We are very excited to have him
back. We miss him with him.
I think it's also his 30th birthday either today or or
tomorrow. So shout out to Brooke.
Happy birthday to him. Mando likely joining us here in
a bit. We've got Logan Hiscock on with
us as always here this week. Logan, Jim, how you doing?
Hey, good morning, Tyler. Doing pretty well.
Yeah, feeling the same. We're we're in the same weather
patterns right now. So I'm feeling, you know, pretty
similar to you, OK with a little bit of a cool down.
Hopefully the market though, starts heating up despite the
weather. I feel like I would get a little
more excitement out of you just because of where we're at this
U.S. Open tournament.
So we've got what the two Americans doing last night, so
one of them is guaranteed to be in the finals.
And when's the last time there was an American in the US Open
finals, you know? Well, a male, a man, 2003 or
maybe later than that. The last win was 2003 Andy
Roddick. So it's going to be, it's going
to be really fun. We're guaranteed Jessica Pagula
won last night in American. She came back from a set down,
so she's in the US Open final on the women's side as well.
So opportunities abound for the US Tennis I.
Feel like it's going to be electric at that stadium.
Stadium is the is the. It yeah, yeah, it's an arena,
Arthur Ashe Arena. It's an incredible atmosphere.
If you're a tennis fan, it's the biggest tennis arena in the
world. It's it's unbelievable.
And those two guys playing tonight will be just a
tremendous atmosphere. Yeah, for sure.
Yeah, so if you got nothing else going on tonight, maybe tune in
for that semi final. The final will be Sunday night,
I believe. So that's going to be a big one,
folks. We're going to talk about more
than tennis on today's show. What are we talking about?
Some big topics for today. We're going to start with the
quick market report. We've got this big jobs data
that came out just about an hour ago and what it might mean for
interest rates. We've got debate bingo now on
Polymarket. What the hell is that?
We're going to talk about that some breaking Nero news.
We he thought Nero was dead. It is far, far from dead Fantasy
Top finally turning a profit. It's looking sustainable.
We had an 8 punk move for $1.5 million.
That's the lowest in three years.
Magic Eden going international with a bit of a surprise
yesterday, a new vape to earn project, a new tokenized film
fund on AVAX, and a whole lot more.
There's a there's a lot to get into a lot of breaking news this
morning. In fact, so excited to get into
it. No roll, but today we are going
to push that to next week. We are going to go super hard on
roll but here next week. But I do want to give a shout
out to our new partner, Galaxis. Galaxis, a no code web 3
platform that empowers creators and communities to become
owners. Check out at Galaxis XYZ on X.
We are excited to have them on board.
All right, all right, with that, let's get into the market report
here. I'm going to get the screen
share fired up for those who are in the stream.
Give me a second on that. All right, we should have that
up. So taking a look at the crypto
board, it looks like we are down South dipping a bit here this
morning. Bitcoin down about 3 percent
55,570 ETH down two percent 2350 Solana down 4% at 1:30.
It's kind of feels like a chop slash down week down week in
general. So if we zoom out, yeah, I think
we we are down a touch been kind of started the week around 59 K,
so now down below 56. If we take a look at the
monthly, yeah, we basically just traded exactly sideways for the
entire month here on Bitcoin, had a rally up to 64 K that got
us all excited. We thought it was so back.
Turns out not indeed back at least just yet.
The big news from the the macro markets here this morning was
the US jobs data. So a few key numbers.
Walter Bloomberg reporting this morning, US unemployment rate
actual came in at 4.2% versus 4.3.
That's exactly where it was estimated, but US non farm
payrolls came in under so 142,000 versus 165,000.
The reason that that is important here this morning is
some of the big banks have been trying to figure out what is the
path to drone drone Powell and the Fed cutting interest rates
either 25 dips or 50 zero heads tweeted out a handy little
matrix yesterday. They basically said that if the
the jobs number was 4.19% or lower, it was going to be 25
four point 3% or higher, 50 bips.
And then if it was in the middle that it would depend on the
payroll numbers. The the payroll numbers did come
in slightly under 150K. So if you're following the
Goldman rate cut matrix, then 50 bips, it is where that the Fed
would be leaning based purely on the day they continue to say
that they will let the data guide their decisions.
We've had Mando come on, you know, earlier in the week we
were talking about this and saying effectively the, the, the
risk or the concern with them going 50 / 25 is it's kind of
admitting that they waited too long or perhaps that, you know,
they're missing the soft landing and that's perhaps why they
would go softer with 25 out of the gate, even though the data
does seem to show that it should be 50.
We did see a, a bit of a move in the, the market.
Wow, looks like that the move has already been erased.
So perhaps the the market is already shaking off the news. 50
bips briefly shot up to about 40%.
I'm seeing you know where we got $0.38 here after the news broke
this morning. It looks like it has since
dropped back to 30%, which is where it was.
So folks don't think, I guess assuming it's not enough for the
50 bips we that we thought it, it might in fact be.
So I'm a little bit surprised with that.
I want to say that the the the broader interest rate markets
are pricing is still a little bit higher, but I haven't
checked on it here this morning. Looks like we've got the man
Mando on with us now. Mando GM, how you doing?
I'm doing great man. How are you?
Doing fantastic, would be feeling a little bit better if
this 50 bips odds were a bit touch higher on on Polymarker.
It is one of my bigger bets out there.
We, we just started talking about the jobs data.
I shared this Goldman matrix that they laid out.
We talked about the the numbers. Curious if you had any read on
that. Of course, we've been talking
about that this week. I thought the numbers would,
would show more likelihood towards the 50 bips, but it
seems like maybe the market's shaking that off.
Curious if you've had a chance to.
It's a small miss. It's like a small miss.
Nothing crazy like we're in the within a what, 20K difference
that shouldn't really 'cause the market to like absolutely get
hammered and sequentially it's obviously higher as well, which
is slightly better. I, I don't think it's that we're
in that much, that much of like a worry with it, but the
market's going to have a little bit of wobble.
We kind of already said this, you know, everyone comes back
from work from holiday, sorry. And you always have volatility
in, in September in broader macro market.
So I'd be really unsurprised if you know, if, if the S&P dropped
like 5 to 10% this month, I wouldn't be surprised.
You know, it's just the way that often happens in in September.
Crypto just feels like it's spent on like a one way crane.
Is that great? So yeah, like, yeah, not it's
not really ideal. Yeah.
I'm curious, is it the jobs data impacting crypto?
Is it just this continued downtrend here that this month,
any read on kind of what's happening broadly in the crypto?
Marketing. To that.
Nothing new other than like nothing's happening.
So that gets people very, very worried, particularly for L
ones. As I've said before, it feels
like Bitcoin has its own its own drivers at the moment, which are
maybe a bit more macro, a bit more similar to like what's been
going on in gold. The the weakness in the dollar
have all kind of matter a bit more for Bitcoin.
I've seen a number of like notable traders go a bit more
bearish on Bitcoin saying that they think they're going to go
around to like 50K. There is a lot of demand around
50K on the order books. So I think most people well
think that that will probably hold or at least that will be
that'll be a very, very big fight for it to go below 50K,
for example. But like Arthur Hayes, Peter
Brandt 2 like relatively one of the traders came out and said,
look, but I'm shorting it. I think think it's going lower.
I'd be surprised this month can have that.
And I've said that I want to go I want to buy this month like
I'm moving my my JLP bags into Bitcoin.
So like I, I'm happy every single time the thing goes
because I moved them into, into stables and now I'm even going
to move them into Bitcoin. I've got like AADCA going for
the next 45 days. And I just hope that two weeks
before the election, I've got a big old bag of Bitcoin around
50K. And then I think we're in AI
think it's going to be a good Q4.
That's basically what I think. I like this music to my ears,
big Q4. I think that does make sense.
I mean, historically, if you look at the numbers, September
is a good month to buy. It can be painful in the moment,
but then Q4 turns around. You mentioned the election.
I mean, Trump's lead is expanding.
Nate Silver. I've been following his modeling
closely. He's got it at 6040.
So Paulie, Mark, it's not even is not even conforming to to
Silver's model at 5346 for for Trump and Silver's is primarily
tying it to Kamala's underperformance in a few key
swing states, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona.
So it seems like she is not performing as well there.
All eyes are going to be on the debate.
I think that's going to be the next big one.
I think it's really hard to to make a much of A read on this
coin flip right now until we get that first debate.
Then I think we can see perhaps the swing one way or another.
Kind of coming back to to macro. A few tweets that I thought were
interesting I wanted to talk about here this morning.
SO0V 0SF said the way I see it, either you want to gamble on AQ4
rally or you don't. If you do, now is a good spot as
ever. Pretty similar to what you just
said. Mando and then Elio trades
commenting everyone in my chats saying 44K or way lower.
Everyone is mostly in stables. Maybe they're all right.
Maybe extreme fear and sideliners will mark the bottom
once again. So it seems like you've got a, a
few folks who agree with you, Logan.
Any any reads from from your side or reactions to to either
of these tweets here. Nothing crazy.
I do want to point out just from that queen market cap, each and
every day you pull that up. I've been looking at that fear
number and it continues to drift lower.
I know, you know, you can't take too much from the fear and greed
index, but down to down to 30. So you know where however
they're building that with whatever sentimental tools, you
know, people are not feeling super comfy.
But you know, to go back to those tweets and you know, the,
the tweet from OV was the one that resonated most with me.
That's what we've been talking about here, right, for the last
couple months. You know, his expectations
around chop up until an election up until AQ4.
Can you stomach it as a, as someone who's here every single
day seeing the headlines, seeing the drawdowns, watching Bitcoin
drop hundreds of or thousands of dollars, you know, during the
show, can you stomach that? And are you willing to gamble on
it going up during this time period in which most people have
suggested this is the most likely period for it to go up?
So I, I, I'm feeling OK, you know, comfortable if I, you
know, you know, not comfortable, of course, and seeing the price
go down, but just, I'm not panicked in, in any way.
This doesn't feel like it's deviating too, you know,
distinctly from what we've been expecting or suggesting is a,
you know, a probable role of, you know, plan or outcome.
It's interesting that you, that you commented on the fear and
greed index. So I remember seeing it in March
and so I, I guess it got to 9090 plus.
And at that point in time, of course, I was, you know,
somewhat euphoric. All of our bags were at their
local highs and I was shaking it off.
I was like, there's no way we're at night.
Agreed. But in in fact, that was the
that was the top right. So like there is something to.
This, I mean there's there's got to be a good overlay of this and
the and the price chart you. Know basically the Bitcoin chart
or the salons, right? Right here, right?
Right. I mean, not to be so cliche,
right, but there's that the Buffett quote, the famous
Buffett quote, There's lots of quotes about, you know, selling
into the euphoria and you know, buying the the fear.
This is if you need, if you need indicators, this is one of them.
If you need to talk yourself into buying, maybe this is, you
know, one of those things, you know, just scroll the timeline
that that that's probably enough in many cases.
Yeah, we're, so I think we are at yearly lows then basically,
Yeah. So we're at yearly lows on the
fear and greed index that is feels notable, you know, headed
into slaughter, big point headed into Q4, headed into the
election. I think the other tweet that I
thought was interesting to hear from Kaleo, he's quote tweeting
traitor cause saying this has been the most boring cycle of
all time. He says he 100% disagrees,
saying that the cycle has barely even gotten started and that
we've already seen some insane moves across the board, some
entertaining depths, some crazy moves in memes.
Solid AirDrop farm every few months.
May know Kirsty if you have any thoughts on that or reactions to
either Cleo's thoughts or if this is the most boring cycle of
all time so far. Yeah, it's a little bit
difficult because I think there isn't there is just a real focus
on cycles in crypto like four years has to be done at this
time. And I just don't know if we, I
just don't know if cycles just assumes that we all just come
back and buy what we bought last cycle, right.
Like it's kind of a bit strange, like there feels to be that.
And that's not really how markets work or how how tech
works either. I don't know how to describe it.
But like let's say we said at the originally, like the
Internet went through a cycle. You wouldn't necessarily go
through and buy the same companies that didn't make it in
the last tech cycle. But in crypto, they kind of
stick around and they have like a market cap.
Do you see what I guess what I'm trying to say is it's it's
always kind of weird to talk about it like that.
I think what we've seen is that Bitcoin's shown real adoption
and the concept of blockchains being used for payments and
tokenization defy NFTS has all shown adoption.
But it's still unclear how the, that L1, those L1 wars are going
to kind of end. And I, I think Bitcoin is the
thing that probably takes us out of this again.
But I wouldn't be sitting there hoping that that someone's going
to come in and buy, buy your altcoins or buy your buy
anything, to be honest. It just I, yeah, I just don't.
I just don't know if I subscribe to the concept of like it's a
the cycle will come back and like all these bags will come
back. Like they they may just never
come back. And Bitcoin just keeps on going.
And then maybe just like, yeah, Sole, Heath and I would say
select memes probably stick around.
Yeah, I seem to agree with that along with Kaleo.
And if we replace the word cycle here with just the most boring
year like this is if you said this has been the most boring
year of all time, I I would disagree with that as well.
I mean, Q 1 was pretty damn electric and then we had a
pretty massive AirDrop season. You know, even the blast
AirDrop, though it disappointed, was still a pretty sizable one
for a lot of folks who participated in that.
We've got, you know, Paul, a market breaking out into, you
know, mainstream media as a crypto app.
So I don't know, I think there's been some some successful
stories you could point to. I will admit the last few few
months have been fairly boring, but that's not not the discount
the the whole year. In other non boring news, we got
some breaking news from Binance this morning.
Nero on Ethereum is getting the Binance listing the the market
liked it quite a bit. Just earlier in the week we
pulled up Nero chart, it looked like it was over and now it is
so, so back. So it is up what almost 100% on
the day at $155 million market cap it touched 190 Yeah so it
was all the way back to 190. Just twenty 2530% below its all
time high. I am curious where it goes from
here. I was talking with Logan before
the show man. I'm curious for your thoughts.
So when Turbo got the Binance listing all the all the price
action front were in the announcement.
So I clearly had been leaked. Insiders knew it.
This is like the opposite. So like the token did not move
at all until this news broke and then we we saw this massive
candle and I don't know that we've really seen a meme coin
candle like this for a a, for a nine figure meme coin and quite
some time. So feels big.
So feels like there's some energy left in the market.
But you know, curious if you have any reads on on Nero.
Feels like it feels like as soon as you've got that bibit
listing, that bibit listing, right, you can and you see
there's a lot with a lot of times with with different coins,
right. You can then short it and then
basically engineer like a massive dump by shorting it,
like hammering it, hammering it lower, keep on shorting, make a
ton of money shorting it and then wait for the listing and
then buy it back up. Like you can really, if you have
enough control of the supply and you start to get futures,
futures listing, you can like really, you can really play some
games and it feels like they they did it well.
Is this the like the youngest coin to ever be added?
I mean this is only a month. Boom boom.
Did it in 24 hours, which is why it was so shocking.
But yeah, it's still it's a pretty quick run right?
Like this thing is wow, that's older than I thought.
So this was made in July. Wow.
OK, I mean that the price chart was terrible.
So you mentioned this was the exit pump.
So I actually thought this candle on the fourth was the
exit pump and I did exit right around 60 million.
So I I missed this 1 1/2 X move here.
But, but such is life. This was made in July.
Wasn't the announcement about the brother like a month ago?
I mean, a month ago it was early August.
Oh. My gosh, yeah, I guess it's
sorry. Just pour.
This is this is still some of the worst price action I've ever
like. This is more than like your
classic like 70% drop down. This was like 90%.
It seemed like it was over. So I really thought this was the
exit pump, but kudos to anyone who held on through this.
Congrats on your gains. Moving on.
Well, I guess one more meme coin story.
Let me see if I can get this. We'll just quickly touch on it.
So Machi's token is going live here today.
He's calling it this IBLV event. I'm not really sure what that
stands for. Looks like they're they're
targeting a $5,000,000 raise for those who signed up.
They'll be able to see what their allocations were in the
links in this thread. Community round starting today,
3:00 PM UTC. It's probably like right around
now, perhaps right after the show.
It's going to last an hour. A public round starting on
Saturday. I want to say I also saw some
incentives that Baseline Markets is putting forward.
There's going to be roughly Logan.
I don't know if you had those top top top of mind here.
Like 100. $1000 or 100,000 Blast Gold Gold depositors.
It's a gold going to depositors in the 1st 24 hours.
The 100,000 sounds right but I'm not entirely sure but I believe
it is gold. It's not USD or USDC or anything
like that. Yeah, makes sense.
So if the weekend is quiet and this could be one to watch, what
we talked, talked about this token on prior shows, the
differentiator here is it's on baseline.
So which makes it unruggable, unruggable in quotes, which
perhaps puts a backstop on this thing.
And it's Machi. Machi seems to have infinite,
infinite bags. So if he's pumping this, perhaps
it it has some upside. We will certainly see.
Perhaps we'll be reporting on this on Monday.
A fun story that broke yesterday is we now have political bingo
carts. This was not on my bingo cart
headed into the debate. So ahead of the debate, Pauline
Market has spun up these that are effectively are parlay
cards. So these are tied to the mention
markets. Now they they just a set of
bingo cards with different mentions from each of the cans.
So if Kamala says DEI, if Trump says fake news, so on and so
forth, you get to cross off those squares.
It is played like traditional bingo.
So straight lines, diagonals, you get the free space.
And then if, if you hit a bingo, you win the bet.
And I believe they've got three bingo cards laid out so far.
The, the, the bingo card I've got pulled up right now in the
stream. For those who are in the stream,
I think it was at 29 cents, 29% chance that you would get a
bingo on this card, which means if you put $100 bet, you'll win
something like 300 three, $130.00.
If you, you hit a bingo. It it's effectively a
complicated parlay card, so you are parlaying different
combinations of mentions. So I think if if you sat down
and did the math on all these, you'd be able to find the edge.
I'm not really sure. This is a pretty new market, not
a whole lot bet. I'm not sure if anyone has sat
down and done it yet, but it's a fun idea and it seems like it
has some some real potential use cases beyond just this debate.
Logan, I'll, I'll toss it to you.
Any reactions to the Polymarket Bingo.
Yeah, I I'm intrigued. I mean, I like the innovation.
I think it's, it's cool. The odds as you mentioned, you
could sit down and try to figure them out.
They are likely horrible to need to get, you know, like five of
those things that come true, you know, for like 20.
And you know, I don't know the implied probabilities off the
top of my head. But you could, you know, sit
down, go to a betting calculator and figure it out pretty quickly
to understand whether or not the parlay that you're choosing, you
know, the different whatever, it's only rows, columns, no four
corners, nothing weird like that.
But you can you can figure it out to see how much edge is
there or you know, lack thereof. So I'm guessing it's probably
not great odds to be betting on yes for some of these, but fun
nonetheless. I think.
I think it's really interesting potential idea.
Just a new way for people to interact and follow along, which
so many people are going to be doing anyway I.
Think they they need to fix the UI so when you go to this bet on
their site you you you just see debate bingo 1 you see the odds
you have to scroll into the rules that to get the actual
card and some people are probably going to miss this
because of that. I guess I don't see the volume
on this market anywhere. Are you seeing it?
Yeah, they don't I think for the newer markets perhaps they don't
share that. So it's it's unclear how much
has really been wagered on this. The book looks pretty thin, so
yeah, if you move the market. If you start typing debate bingo
in the search bar, Tyler, it it is.
It's showing me the the little numbers underneath all.
Right. What do we have here?
Oh, so it's very. Very small.
Yeah, so it's a tiny market right now, man.
Are are you be playing debate bingo ahead of next week's
debate so. I'm, I'm really looking forward
to that debate, if I'm honest. I think it's going to be good.
Like she hasn't really said that much, right?
Like she's had one one of the interviews and I still don't
really know what any of her policies are apart from like
hearsay and sometimes they get walked back and just don't
really know. So I think it's going to be
really good. Like maybe she massively, maybe
she massively outperforms and comes through and and smashes
it, or maybe it's a bit like the Biden 1.
I actually just genuinely don't know.
I think it'd be great to watch. So yeah, one, I'll be watching
it. I'll be betting on it.
Yeah, it's going to be, I think this is the biggest single day I
think for Polymarket since I don't even recall like the the
last spike in volume. So we saw a huge spike on the VP
when the when Kamala's VP was announced, what was the last
live event that was heavily bet? Logan, do you remember?
Was the Trump Elon? Was that a?
Oh yeah, the the Trump Elon was probably the last big, big
single event like this should be much bigger.
Like I'm pulling up the debate market right now on Poly.
I mean, there's there's dozens, there's dozens of bets.
I'm just trying to find that the winner, which the winner is a is
a is a tricky one, but some interesting ones.
So you've got the mentions markets.
Will they actually debate? That seems like a lock yes, you
can bet on the number of debates favorite to win on polymarket
one week after that's saying who's going to be the leader in
the Polymarket election but who's asked the first question
Kamala getting 64% that's a phone that's effectively like
the coin flip that of the debate here.
Will they shake hands? Probably bet no on that one Who
Will Win the debate according to the polls.
So this is probably the the most interesting to me.
Let's see. So this has got Kamala at 70%,
which goes against what I would have thought people would have
been betting. I I would have thought this was
the opposite. Is this just like differential
in polling numbers after or? Yeah, the the rules are the
market will resolve to Kamala if Ipsos 530 eights, OK.
So 530 eights like. Oh, OK, so it's actual.
So their their opinion polls, so they're going to these two
episodes of 538 are going to run out of opinion polls and who won
and then you're betting on the results of those polls.
I think 538 has been very more left-leaning than anything else
of the the polls that I've seen. So that's probably why this
market is leaning that way. But I think at least from crypto
Twitter sentiment, it does not seem like folks think Kamala is
going to win with the 70% rate right now.
So perhaps that is that's going to be 1 to watch the debate
Bingo. I think is going to be a fun
one. I'm definitely going to be
playing a little bit of this. So I guess there there are no
new there are no no's on this. I guess, Logan.
So that was kind of your point. So you're effectively betting
yes, on all of these parlays. So you're going to need a lot of
things to a lot of things to to happen.
I think what's the difference between the debate and like some
of these rallies is the each candidate only has like 2 or 3
minutes to respond to questions. So like the, the, the long Trump
rants where he covers all these words at his, at his rallies,
like that's not going to happen. He's not going to have the
ability to do that. So your odds of yeses are, are
already going to be smaller. But I mean, these are some
pretty, I don't know, these are some pretty standard words like
product 2025, Harris is going to say that, you know, them saying
abortion. I think that's pretty likely not
going back. Like she's definitely going to
say that this is the question of are you going to get everything
in the line? But it's going to be a a fun one
to watch, that's for sure. And then Logan, you had a let me
see if I can get back to this. So Trump, the news from
yesterday, Trump made some what were his crypto comments from
yesterday. He said that the US is going to
be the crypto capital or something.
Well, there there was that. And then there was also somebody
had shared a report from the Wall Street Journal that
indicated that Trump was going to be, I don't know, doubling
down, I can't remember the exact terminology, but basically
speaking on crypto and the economy a little bit more or
whatever. And so I ran to these markets
right away after seeing that report, thinking that they were
referencing these talks only to find out they weren't.
But nevertheless, this market has actually moved up since that
time anyway. So yeah, I think I bet this
yesterday around maybe six cents or something like that.
There was a different one that already the Hannity 1 I bet as
well, which was at like 4 that resolved to know.
But yeah, I mean, this is up. I I don't there's a I've seen if
you Scroll down to the comments, which I think are funny and you
shouldn't necessarily give any credence to some of these.
Like, yes, some of these are the rationale here.
Like isn't the worst ever, right?
You have like Wisconsin being one of those places that made
that Bitcoin investment just like a little tiny crossovers
that, you know, if I'm going to if I'm going to make a bet, you
know, he just recently is speaking about crypto, wants to,
you know, appear a little bit stronger, be a little bit more
forefront on the economy in his talks.
Maybe this comes up. Why?
Why not? So that was the that was the
bet. I mean, I'm just going to let it
ride. I'm not trading out of this at
this point in time at a 3X or whatever.
And yeah, this is later tonight. I think hopefully the people of
Wisconsin are graced with some Bitcoin or crypto commentary.
I think this is tomorrow. Oh, tomorrow.
OK, Yeah. For those following, so this is
a decent market, it's already got $180,000 bet.
So this is bigger than any of the other ones we've been We've
been talking about quickly on the comments.
What I do like about the comments here is that it it does
show the commenters live bets. So you can see if they're just
totally like BS saying or if they're actually like providing
rationale for what what the the markets they're betting on.
But back to the topic here. So Trump notably has not
mentioned crypto in any conversations, any of his
rallies since the the Bitcoin national conference, which is
going to put into question, you know, how serious of an issue is
it for him? So will he mention crypto?
The odds have been near 0 headed into most of these rallies.
It was similar here for the Wisconsin rally.
It was trading at five to seven cents.
Now it's up to 17 with the market briefly spiking to like
40. It must have been a big bet come
in. So crypto now back into a more
likely talking point for his rally tomorrow.
So that will be an interesting one to follow for sure.
That's enough of our macro chatter.
A few other stories here. I, I want to talk about these
are more in the, the protocol space.
So this was perhaps an interesting one.
Not sure if you saw this, that vape to earn.
So now we are just going to going across the gamut of
different actions you can take to earn in crypto.
So puff paw thrill deal now and says $6 million in seed funding
with vape to quit smoking and earn it's going to be built on
bear chain. Well, is this how we get Gen.
Z in the in the crypto here? I think ern.
Ironically yesterday I saw something that the vaping rates
are way, way down already. So I'm not I'm not sure this is
the way that you get Gen. Z in maybe they're.
Going to pick stock up. Maybe I don't.
I don't really know what to say. I actually am a I like the like
blank to earn, like the step in type stuff.
Moonwalk fitness is doing it now.
Like those things are interesting to me to incentivize
certain behaviors. This one I don't know, I just
kind of laugh about this one. It doesn't feel as real, right?
Like this feels more like a joke and and no knock at puff paw and
you know, and the ambitious team, you know, looking to make
something of this, but it's just that it doesn't feel as
substantial as as some of those other blank to earn protocols.
And maybe that's part of like the the marketing here is like
how the absurdity behind it, I don't know.
But hopefully for their sake things work out.
It caught my attention. Sobe was defending I think.
I don't know if he knows the team or if he invested.
I forgive his post right now, but he was kind of reacting to
everyone dunking on it on the timeline.
Logan, you did the and blank to earn you did the grass AirDrop,
right, which was I guess how would how would you characterize
that one and that and how was that AirDrop?
I think I saw rumblings that it was not the best.
Well, I saw the tweets on the timeline with people with more
points than I had and their token allocations.
And so I didn't even take the time and effort to check mine
because I just assumed that there's nothing.
So yeah, disappointing. But I mean, in terms of low lift
airdrops, that was one of the ones during AirDrop meta that
was perhaps the easiest, maybe one of them more controversial
as well, given like the, you know, some of the concerns
around what you're you were enabling.
But whatever, I I turned it on. I OK thus far safety wise and
I'm getting maybe a couple of tokens, maybe enough to buy
myself a lunch or dinner. Well, Speaking of low effort air
drops some somewhat big news from Travis Bickel and the
fantasy top team yesterday. So he commented that last week
marked the first time they've been sustainable.
He's defined sustainable as able to cover both the player rewards
and team payroll with their revenue.
So fancy top turning profitable and it it seems like they they
are more perhaps sustainable than ever more market attention
than than I can recall. I want to check in on our heroes
here on FOMO hour. Brooke has been been tweeting
since he's been on his Asia spree, so we'll see if he gets
back to basics when he's with us here next week.
I'm trying to find Mando here. Mando has been moving up the
ranks. Let's see here I've been doing.
That much? Up only for the most part.
Last week you had a, you know, unexpected dip, but this is your
highest ranking. Nice if.
You're 63. You're back to five stars.
What are you I I Honestly I need to go into this site more often.
It does feel like a little. That's the one thing.
The 1 shining light of crypto at the moment is a fancy cup.
It it is one it is the shining light of blast for for sure.
I guess predict fun trying to to throw its hat in there.
I I had a good week. I've been pretty consistent in
the top 50 and that the market's starting to reflect that a
little bit logging in at six stars here, but I'm incentivized
to tweet because I have my epic card and I play it every week.
So they were smart to have done that.
They probably was legendary cards.
We didn't get those legendaries. So I'm guessing they just threw
those away. Be on the lookout for hero
awards. Hero rewards should be coming in
the next week or two, I would think, and those should be
higher than than they've been. But overall, let's take a look
at the floor. I think I saw it at at .0 yeah.
So the floor is holding in around point OK, point OO7.
So down a touch, the player card rewards seem to to be that the
big, big prize that folks have been going after in this market.
But you need those player cards to have a decent value for for
that to be continue to be an ongoing viable piece of the the
rewards pie. I think there's some questions
or some chatter a little bit debate with stats in my replies
yesterday on on if that's a Ponzi, how long it will last.
I think it's just depends on how how successful the game is, how
much people want to continue to play.
I think they had along with the the company turning profitable,
I think we saw for the first time net buyers over net sellers
according to some of Brad's data.
So they are certainly on the up there.
Good to see. Shout out to the fancy top team.
In other news from the day, perhaps getting into NF TS here
a little bit, a couple blockbuster sales in the past
day. Let me try to pull these up one
second. Recent sales here we are.
So 8 Punk sold for 620 ETH that was $1.5 million.
What was notable notable about this one to me, I have for
starters, 1.5 million is a huge sale for this NFT market.
But then when you look at the past eight sales, it is about a
full 2000 ETH less than these were going for just two years
ago. So last sales I'll read them off
3300 ETH for a hoodie 82.69 thousand, 25125 hundred,
25102.25 thousand, 1600 and 7:50 you have to go back to February
2021. I want to say to really have
gotten a lower a lower price in ETH and in USD terms.
So we are at at 3 lows. I think the the question going
around is it was this a good buy?
Was this a generational injury here on an an 8 punk Mando?
I see. I see your eyebrows coming up
but any reactions? Are you buying that N8 punk for
620 ETH or 1.5 million right now?
It's tough. The ETH FUD is, is deep in the
market at the moment, right. So I feel this is just this is
kind of still tied to ETH to some some extent, which I think
is my main worry there. Other than that, I do think
crypto art. It's super interesting and will
be, you know, will be a field and crypto art and punks kind of
define that to a certain extent, at least the early days of it.
So maybe this is going to be a digital flex.
It will come back and be very, very strong.
I don't I don't know if it is the same flex that it was, you
know, like it definitely doesn't feel like it was.
I think you also have in the back of your mind like, oh wow,
that must be down a lot when you see some of these these punks,
right? It's kind of like what people
say when they see apes. It's like, oh, you know, I feel
bad. Like, you know, and that's not a
great feeling. So yeah, like when you see
people who have 8 punks and then they're down, you know, whatever
that is 5060% like maybe maybe they're less of a babbling good.
The. I think I'd still honestly
prefer to buy the floors like some good floor plus than these
sort of like that's a gappy sale, right?
That is a big gap. I remember when didn't Seefray
sell one for like 3K ETH. Yeah, the hood.
Was it the hood? That was his then, yeah, he sold
it for, yeah. I think there was some thought
that he sold it for too low in USD terms perhaps, but I think
it's about. 1500 then it was like 5 million is yeah so yeah
that's a big gap you know that's a.
Big gap. I think I tend to agree with you
on the floors over grills. Well, I'm not really in the
market for 600 and 28th NFTS at this point, unlike the the PFP
and social status thing. I also that does ring true.
I mean, back in 2021, I remember kind of being excited like if I
got followed by a punk PFP or just in general like looking to
follow those folks as signals in the market.
And I think some of that status is certainly diminished or or
gone away. And I don't know that, you know,
flipping your PFP to a punk has the same splash as it perhaps
did, which does seem like kind of a problem, right.
That was one of the parts of the bull case and when when we were
laying out the bull case for punks and just NFTS in general,
their their use as PFPS. Logan any read that that you
have on you know this conversation or or like are you
going floors or apes what you take?
Yeah, it's interesting. I I think I like the floors play
as well, but I also think this is a good buy personally like if
you're spending 1.5 million on an ape here, I don't think
you're worried about especially given apes the aliens zombies,
right like these just don't trade very frequently.
You're not worried about getting 1.75 million in two weeks or
something like that, right? So if you, if you can sit on
your hands and, and you're OK with waiting for a better
period, which I think we all suspect would will come, at
least I, I suspect will come for crypto punks and NFTS in
general. I think this is, I think this is
a, a good buy. I I also tend to agree though,
with, you know, your points on the, the flex feeling less
significant than it did at one point in time for a variety of
reasons, like, you know, Etherium's significance, NFTS as
a whole, you know the, the significance.
So I can see the case both sides, but I personally, you
know, if I had a 1.5 million that I didn't care about, I'm
OK. I'm OK with this by.
You have to also appreciate a lot of this money.
People are just way more wealth than you think they are.
So yes, like maybe they just want to flex and if it doesn't,
if it doesn't work out, who cares?
Yeah, if if you're just scheduling splashing 1.5.
I mean, these crypto punks in particular, right?
Like they're, they're not going to go to 0.
He's going to be able to get out.
He, he or she is going to be able to get out for something.
So maybe they just need a, a nice little tax loss harvest at
some point in time, You know, like that's, that's in play
here. So I, I like this purchase.
I like any punk purchase, not any, but you know, like most all
punk purchases, if you have a longer time frame and you're OK
with just kind of parking, parking some ETH in in a crypto
punk, I I like those. Logan likes that in the
scenario. I think Farrok has said that he
still thinks punks could go to $1,000,000 for it.
In that scenario then this is a great buy.
Now I think on the flip side, if you are an ETH Max, if you think
ETH goes to 10K, ETH at 10K. If this ape holds at 6:20,
that's what 6.2 million, so you'd be for Xing and USD.
But then the question would be would it hold that E for I think
that's that's another risk vector to to this market.
But splashy sale. The person probably doesn't care
that much. They're not sweating the buy out
here in the near term. It was interesting also to see
zombie move this morning. Punks OTC picked up the zombie
Mohawk here for 240. I think that's also the lowest
we've seen in E terms. Yeah, like of all the sales on
the board. So if if Punks OTC is buying it,
you know, he's he's he's got a price point that he likes.
Other than that, not a whole lot of action on the NFT board here
this week. I think one last quick story
before we wrap things up. I thought this was a fun one
here out of Avax. So Avax does keep cooking.
So the American Psycho Film studio has launched a film fund
on Avax Pressman film. They announced this new
investment platform called Republic.
It is on the Avalanche blockchain.
Pressman is a notable studio. They're behind legendary titles
like Wall Street and American Psycho.
I think that gives a little bit more weight to this news.
Through their New Republic platform, fans and investors can
contribute to film production with as little as $200.
You buy a stake in a slate of film to be produced.
So, So far they've raised $300,000 against a $1.5 million
goal. The way it's going to work is a
new fund will support 6 potential films on this initial
slate. Three are based on existing film
IP, 3 original movies. Investors will only receive
payouts if one or more of those films makes it into production.
Then returns look like this. So if the film makes it to
production, investors receive a portion, a portion of Pressman's
producing and rights fees. And then if it actually makes it
further, if it gets into release and distribution, then investors
will receive a portion of net profits given the low odds of
those outcomes that Pressman is also offering investors some
perks like movie set visits, producer credits and premier
tickets. I've got a quote here pulled up
from Edward Pressman. But I think what's interesting
about this AI like this use of blockchain Logan, I want to
throw it to to you for thoughts on that.
But you know, will this be a good investment?
That is the the trickier question.
So we've got crypto folks perhaps starting to throw their
ring in film investing. Just for a recent example.
I think they covered it in this article as well.
But Pressman's last film, The Crow, folks might remember that
title. It's a reboot of the 1994
original that bombed this year at the box office.
They had a $50 million marketing budget and netted just 4.6
million in opening weekend. So investing in film, certainly
not a slam dunk, but a pretty cool use of blockchain
nonetheless. So, Logan, any reactions to this
story? Yeah, cool, cool use of the
blockchain. I've used Republic before to
invest in things like Gum Road and and maybe like ACBD company
or something just offers access to, you know, investments that
the little guy typically wouldn't have access to.
So that's kind of cool to be able to get in here.
This is a fun one as well, especially if you're OK with
just kind of probably not making money, right?
But like taking some of those perks, it almost feels like a
Kickstarter in a way, right? Like you might get your your
name and the credits and, and that, that's cool, right?
That's worth the 200 bucks or whatever the minimum investment
level is. So I'm game for all this.
AVAX continues to to be at the forefront of new, you know,
innovations, new partnerships. So that's awesome as well for
AVAX. We talked about some of those
things earlier this week. Excited to see what happens.
This is it's been a busy week for for film type stuff.
I don't know if you saw that the Segway too much, but Calidita,
the the film that was funded by NFTS is going to be on Netflix
Spain as well. So that that was pretty cool.
It's been a nice week for IP blockchain movies, those types
of things. Hopefully we continue to see it.
It's a, it's a nice like creative way to utilize
blockchain that's feels, you know, a little more human than
payments and finance and, and those types of things that are
perhaps a bit more boring for the normal person.
Yeah, exactly. I think it's just fun, right.
People are trader causes complaining about the market
being boring. I think it's, it's easier than
ever in 2024 to be a a seed investor via some of these new
protocols that are going around and being able to invest in
projects, you know, before they hit the broader market.
That's easier than it's ever been for people who just show up
to crypto Twitter everyday. Like you can figure that out
now. You can invest in things like
films and whether or not it's a good bet, I think it's beside
the point. I get it's fun to be able to
throw a few $100 and perhaps say you're an investor in the next
American cycle. I think that's a fun thing to do
and we're just talking about, you know, the crypto wealthy who
are splashing $1.5 million into an 8 pock, you know, perhaps
they want a producer credit on an upcoming film.
So there's more and more options, there's more things to
do and bullish AVAX, like AVAX keeps cooking.
I, I think we, we've got, you know, on a weekly basis we're
reporting on, on new things, ways they're innovating and
pushing the needle. So not.
I'm seeing I'm seeing 10 grand plus if you if you invest
$10,000 plus end credit in one film similar to a special banks
credit. Not bad.
If you're real wealthy and you really want that special banks
$10,000, that's all it'll cost you.
I mean, some of the other perks, I mean, I think that's probably
the the least interesting, but like premier movie tickets that
visits, those are kind of nice perks, especially if you're, if
you're a film buff, go go rub elbows with some celebs.
But I think that is a roundup of today's news here, folks.
We went around the horn. No real bit spins today.
We are going to be going hard on those next week.
Perhaps a double dip on our 200th show next Friday.
We will certainly find out for Roque is back.
We are excited for that. Shout out to all of our
listeners who tuned in for today's show.
We will be back on Monday breaking down all the weekend
action. As for today, go have a great
Friday. Go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye.