Good morning, good morning everyone GMEN and welcome to
another episode of homo. Our day today is Friday 8 second
45 whoops today is off to a fast start Bitcoin at 97 K stocks are
booming potentially about to hit a 20 year streak and the
question is can this keep going or are we a major bull trap
we're going to break it down on today's show I'm getting a bit
of of feedback so maybe is it is it your phone I'm.
Trying to mute it, turn on what's.
Working all the way down. I did.
It won't let me. There we go.
Oh, so I'm a speaker. It won't let me.
I'll just Chuck it to the side. Yeah.
Just maybe put it to the side. But how's that?
That that's better. Thank you very much, folks.
We, we gave it away. Our special guest.
It's Friday. We've got Sergito's joining us.
Serge, how you doing? Good man, thank you for having
me. Always a pleasure to come on
rock radio and obviously personal friends of all the
whole team. So just happy to chat with some
with some homies. Yeah, we're excited to have you
on. I think Mando is going to be
joining us in just a couple minutes here, folks.
We've got Logan on with us last day in Peru.
OK, GM, Hey, good morning. I'm feeling a little bittersweet
here. Final day here in Peru, leave
tomorrow night. So great trip, great time.
Highly recommended for folks who have not yet ventured down here
or maybe East, West, wherever you need to come from to get
here. But excited to talk about it,
the show, the markets, whatever. I'm excited.
We're going to miss your yellow background that.
Is I know, I know this Airbnb treated me really well.
Cold showers but otherwise treated me really well.
Are you in Neymar? What was that?
I'm sorry. Are you in Neymar?
No, I'm in Trujillo, OK. Nice, Yeah, Nice, nice, nice,
Regina. Where are you talking to us live
from this morning? I'm in New York.
But I used to go to Peru once a
month for four or five years when I started my career in the
the markets, I used to cover Peru.
So very special place in my heart.
Oh. Very nice.
Well, Logan, we're happy that you're coming back, but happy
had a good time as well. Folks, what are we talking about
on today's show? We're going to start with the
market report. Looks like we've got some good
jobs numbers. China coming to the table on
trade talks, stocks on potentially the biggest rally
since 2004, which is a bit confusing given everyone doom
posting for for weeks now. So we got to talk about that.
We're going to talk about crypto outlook here.
Mr. Sergito's perspective. We got Michael Saylor announcing
another $21 billion in equity offerings to buy more Bitcoin.
Tether reported earnings billion dollars, very good, but down
about 75% year over year. North Carolina's close to
passing their own strategic Bitcoin reserve, Playtron in the
suite system. They're they're launching a new
gaming stablecoin. That was an interesting one.
We've got Visa and MasterCard both working on projects to give
AI agents access to credit cards.
That feels kind of big. We're going to break down the
boop dot fun launch that was all over the timeline yesterday.
And then the the last part of the show, we will talk to
Sergita about Mebits. The NFT come back in a lot more
plus double yeet spins today. So you're going to want to stick
around for the end of the show for that.
Before we dive in, quick shout out to our partner Wallet
Connect. Wallet Connect is the
connectivity network shaping the future of on chain UX.
If you've connected to a Web 3 app, you've seen Wallet Connect.
That blue logo, it's everywhere and I kind of trust in crypto as
recognizable as Visa at the checkout.
If you want to learn more, all at Wallet Connect on X and
Telegram. Just stay ahead of what's next.
All right, we love our partners as always, Sims, you want to
give me my intro music? I'll do a bit of a market
report. Yeah, it's an interesting one
out there this morning here, folks.
I feel that crypto's been kind of quietly grinding up slash
somewhat chopping it feels like these past few days.
So Bitcoin 96,900 up, up about a percent, up just 2% on the week,
though it feels a little bit more than that, I guess.
I guess I don't recall staying at 95 K last Friday.
ETH up 3% on the week, only up. It's basically even on the day.
Slama slightly in red on the day, a few alt movers, nothing
really crazy. EOSIMX Kaya Virtual is kind of
leading the charge up 6 to 9%. Nothing crazy.
I think from a macro perspective, a few things going
on. Bloomberg tweeting here this
morning. Looks like the jobs report came
in. Payrolls beat expectations
decently. Unemployment stayed the same.
We had Trump continuing to call for rate cuts, saying that
inflation is very low and that the Fed needs to act, cut those
rates. Some news out in NVIDIA.
They're tweaking some AI chips to be sold to China.
It does seem like China coming to the table.
Trade talks have reported, I think China said this last night
that the US had reached out for for trade deals.
You can position that as the US giving in, but I think end of
the day, most people are just happy to see some progress on
that front. Markets do seem to have like
that. So we've got stocks up about a
percent here today, Dow jumping up 400, and then again on pace
for the longest winning streak in 20 years.
Which is made more interesting because Trump just came out and
said when the recession numbers came out or the the Q1 GDP came
out, that this wasn't his market, it was Biden's market.
So Biden's going to have to get credit for this 20 day rally,
this 20 year rally. I guess the 10 year is up today.
Wow, I didn't see that. So it's back to 4.3.
So it's going the wrong way. I did see the odds of rate cuts
have fallen a bit. I saw that we had this up,
pulled up just a couple days ago on the show.
I think the odds of four cuts in 2025 Rep up to about 41% on the
CME, on the CME board, back down to 35% here.
So just about about 50% chance of four to five cuts here, 35%
chance of three for the rest of this year.
Back on the crypto board, ETFs were strong again yesterday, 420
million in net inflows, I bet has just been leading the charge
consistently, just massive green numbers every day.
So capital is flowing in through the the I bit Bitcoin ETF,
Ethereum even catch them to bed. Nice little week.
Those ETTFS nicely green here this week as well.
That's a quick summary. We'll go into some of the more
specific headlines here in a little bit.
But Sergio, I'll, I'll tell it to you.
I'm kind of I want to just chat casual Friday chat like macro
and and market outlook. And I'll, I'll maybe preface
this by saying I, I've been trying to absorb a lot of
information. I don't, I, I don't have a
background in macro equities trading or market trading
really. So I, I like to absorb what a
lot of smart people around me are saying.
And I feel like a lot of smart people for the last month, or at
least since Liberation Day, had talked about how this would be a
disaster for markets. A lot of smart people saying
their base case was recession with chances of stagflation and
depression on the table, which is hard for me to reconcile now
that we're, that we're seeing this this massive rally in
stock. So I'm, I'm curious, just from
your perspective on what is happening, like is this a bull
trap? Should we be more worried?
Like why are stocks outperforming in such uncertain
times? Yeah.
I mean, I think it's easy to just forget that the market's
not the economy. Obviously something for the
narrative is like the market's doing well, the economy will be
doing really well, markets trade our expectations as we all know.
And what's happened over the last couple weeks is, you know,
while there's still some commentary out there from, from
the administration that are going to stay strong and, you
know, China and all that stuff, the reality is we've seen them
move closer back to where things were.
And so if you were around the markets back in the first Trump
administration, the whole trade deal thing, we already had it
happening. You know, they had a trade deal
with China back then. It was called phase one trade
one deal. It's purely cosmetic.
Same thing with the NAFTA renegotiation that he like
turned USMCA. So I think once you know, the
market pricing, the fact that OK, yeah, this might be
different, like the tariffs are 145% with China, with everybody
else, like if they had not changed course, we will be much
lower. But the fact that they
immediately started changing their tune and coming back more
towards kind of like the table where, you know, putting out
those fake headlines that we're talking to China and China's
like, no, we're not. No, we're not.
I think that puts unfortunately, I mean, we're cheering for the
US here, don't get me wrong. But if you look at it from a non
political perspective and just from a pure macro perspective,
the reality is that the US is against the wall of China.
And so they're either going to have to, you know, agree to some
sort of deal, which is removes a lot of the uncertainty.
And that's why we're like so much higher from what we were a
month ago. But also, you know, the Fed is
there, right? The fact that the Fed didn't do
anything when we were down 20% / 2 weeks.
I think it's just a good way to save those bullets from when
they're necessary. And, and you'll start seeing
encrypted Twitter this week, a lot of talk about like shipping
lanes and the ports being empty, how the tariffs just started to
hit the real economy this week. And, and I think what's going to
be important now that we had a, a rebound with the change of
expectations is OK, So what happens next?
Obviously first quarter GDP is backward looking.
Today's employment number is backward looking.
And I think a lot of people miss the point that it's a, it's just
a mathematical model that usually gets revised as we go
through time. If you look at, you know,
employment numbers for the last eight years, every single month,
there's been a significant revision.
When you look back now when the market is very, very quiet,
people are just super focused on employment and thus becomes kind
of like, you know, it's like the mean coins or like, oh, you
know, Elon tweeted it. And so the thing moves like it
doesn't change fundamentally anything.
It's just something that people like to like gamble around.
And so employment was better than expected.
The expectations are very low. Sorry, my thoughts are being a
little bit naughty right now, but the expectations were low,
right? If you think about, you know,
your average monthly gain for like a healthy job economy,
around 220,000 jobs per month. So even though we beat
expectations, 133,000 is just not bad.
I mean, 177 times, it's still still not to that level that you
would expect from a healthy economy.
Unemployment rate kind of sticky above 4%, which is still pretty
good. It's not, you know,
recessionary, but we're just at a turning point here.
I think where like really have to be looking at what's
outperforming, what's driving the market.
A lot of stuff that's driving the market right now, tech
companies are companies that, you know, are defensive in
nature, especially in a world of tariffs where, you know, there's
software companies that don't really have that need for
capital goods to come in from China.
And so, you know, you have a lot of money invested in the market
that has to be parked somewhere. I think something from the
crypto perspective are like, you know, all in either in Bitcoin
or you're in Ethereum or you're in Solana or you're in Ethereum
or you're in NFTS or you're in shit coins.
But there's hundreds of thousands of asset managers out
there that need to be like US equities, right?
And they, they need to be like 85% invested in US equities.
So what do you do? Right?
So you sell the stuff that might have an impact from, you know,
some of the soft data that we're seeing.
And again, look ahead where the economy will slow down, maybe
like financials, real estate, you sell that and then you hide
in stuff like Microsoft that just printed a great number that
again, it's not really important things from China that has AAI
kind of like tailwind. And of course them being such an
oversized component of the index, then you get this kind of
stuff or like, oh, stocks are really good.
And it I don't think it's a bull trap.
It's just more consequence of the way like all these indices
are put together and it can be a mirage.
I think, you know, it's good, but it's just time to be like a
little bit more alert as to what's really happening on the
surface. Yeah, I think that makes a lot
of sense. So I had this like gut read with
no data backing up that I just felt like fund managers, like
wealth advisors, like they, they want to put capital in the
market. So I feel like no one wants to
be in cash. It's not a sexy thing to do.
It's not what they're being paid to do.
And I feel like every time we got any glimpse of positive
news, everyone like we were saying that pump, right?
It just felt like to me that that money was pouring in.
So kind of hearing that from you kind of does kind of confirm
that idea for me. So I guess So what is your like?
What's your outlook over the next couple quarters?
And on one side, I want to be optimistic that, you know, if
things really go South quickly in the economy, there's going to
be some sort of like backstop stimulus or something like that.
Or again, this is a like a self-inflicted one, right?
This whole tariff thing, liberation date was a mistake.
And so you can take that away with one tweet and that should
see the kind of reaction that we've seen so far.
Having said that, right? If you continue to see this kind
of just misunderstanding of reality with like the impact of
tariffs, how they are a tax on the lower and middle income
classes. If you're going to use that as
an excuse to cut taxes on the wealthy, then definitely I
think, you know, you're going to see potentially.
So for example, I was arguing with some friends earlier today
on a group text. They're like, oh man, the stocks
are up. You know, first like whatever 10
day win streak in like 20 years, I'm like, yeah, we went from
6:00 to 8:00 when we could have been at 12.
So for me, it's like we could have been much higher already if
they had just put in the pro growth policies that were
promised in the election and not messed around with like trying
to reset the global trade order all in one go.
Unfortunately, you know, we're we're not there yet.
And so I think it's important to just kind of like keep in mind
what could happen if those Chinese tariffs really start
hitting. You know, we're, we're making,
we'll talk about Meebits. We're like, we're making toys
from ebits. And like every single day we get
emails from like the toy association saying like, hey,
these tariffs are literally going to take out half the
industry. So what happens then, right.
If like, you know, we've pulled that back a little bit because
like, we don't want to spend $500 on a thing that we can sell
for 400 bucks because of tariffs.
So then we're not putting in orders for the toy.
You know, manufacturers and even though they might be in China,
like the shipping companies, probably like FedEx or UPS,
those are American. The retailers are obviously
here, the employees of the retailers, obviously American.
So that chain does take a little bit of time to play out.
So I think it's just time to be really vigilant and really
understand that, you know, markets go up on a staircase,
but down an elevator. And and that's what we see,
right, like escalator up, elevator down where like they
Chuck, Chuck, Chuck, Chuck. And then just like we saw
Liberation Day. If nothing's really changed and
it was just something like, you know, like announcements like
that that, you know, are so ridiculous, they're probably not
taken back then great bag of attorneys.
But if things are going to change materially where they're
like, you know what, screw this, or like a bomb goes off
somewhere, then that's a different conversation.
Yeah, I think what's been interesting to me is a little
bit about how the narrative has changed, right?
It's like when this first started, there was a bit of this
picture that you're going to be in for some near term pain while
we correct some serious issues in the US economy and government
spending and the debt. And it feels like we're kind of
walking some of that back. And like, of course, it's nice
to see the markets go back up. And I think we have made some
progress on some trade deals. On paper, I think you could
argue the opposite side that the global relations have perhaps
more and more than the gain we're getting.
That's a longer conversation, but it does feel like it's
changed a little bit. And I guess where I'm going with
this, I'm curious for your perspective.
I've seen you, I've seen you be critical and, and that that's
great. How would you rate Trump's first
100 days overall and then Part 2 specifically for crypto?
And then we'll get into the crypto part of this
conversation. I think overall, probably one of
the worst first 100 days that we've had.
I mean, the market's telling you that, right?
Like we've had the worst start for an administration in decades
or history. I don't even know.
So the the market being the largest voting waiting machine
is just telling you that it's not me being political.
It's just the market telling you that for crypto again, right.
We thought it was going to be a super pro crypto administration
like Bitcoin should be at 150 K. We're getting excited about
potentially going back to 100K which we hit over Basel.
I remember I was in Miami with, with my friends and when it hit,
we were like all super excited. So the fact that, you know,
we're trying to inch back to 100K when we're already there,
it doesn't feel like good to me. Now that's from the market price
perspective. Obviously the regulation change,
obviously, you know, releasing some of those prisoners that
were, you know, crimes involving crypto that might not have been
crimes is, is super positive. And so from that sense, I think
from the regulatory perspective, really, really good.
Personally don't think that's the executive, that's more the
people that have been, you know, in Congress.
And so like pushing from the inside.
Obviously, you know, places like stand with crypto really doing a
good job at at at, you know, flexing their muscles.
I think it's worrisome that, you know, it's almost pay to play
now with World Liberty Financial.
Like you see an announcement of somebody investing in World
Liberty Financial and they either get a part in or they get
something taken away. There was just some news
yesterday about like, I think it was Abu Dhabi, $2 billion
investment into like Trump crypto.
And then the next day the US is taking, you know, restrict
restrictions off from, you know, chips being sold over there.
And you're like, come on, man. Like because what's happening is
in four years, if the Democrats come back in, like crypto's
going to be Public Enemy #1 again.
And and so that's a concern. We we don't have to go that way
to be pro crypto. But yeah, I'll just let the
market speak for itself. I think you know for for the
economy BAT for crypto not as good as expected.
Interesting that you're saying not as good as expected because
I, I just, I gave my ratings the other day and I, I think I, I
gave them an A just because of the, the regulations.
Well, OK, an asterisk a putting the meme coin launch aside.
A -, I will give. OK, so I think that's fair.
And I do agree with you that some of his personal moves, the
meme coin with World Liberty 5 now potentially with True Social
doing its own token has muddied it quite a bit.
And I am also, I think one of the biggest risks out there is.
A political shift and the crypto becoming enemy #1 again driven
because of some of his personal actions and A and a view as
crypto equals trump and a crackdown I.
Mean we saw with Tesla, right? Like Tesla went from the being
the darling on the left because of, you know, environmental
concerns and electric vehicles. So now people are doing stupid
shit to cars. Like it's insane.
But that's the way humans are. And so that's, yeah, A for the
regulation minus for the stuff around it.
And, and again, I think because of the economy, we should be
much higher on prices, both for stocks and crypto.
And so, you know, we can blame Biden all we want, but that's
just not the way the world works.
We'll see if Biden gets credit for this 20 day rally if if it
closes here today. Well, now that we, we put it to
crypto, Sergio, I'm curious. Take a look at the board now.
You kind of outlined your, your macro thoughts.
Like what? What jumping?
What is jumping out to you like a are you?
Are you making Yeah, I saw Amanda just join us.
We were on recfishing a couple weeks ago.
And I think one of the recurring themes whenever I I, I get
tapped into to SIM for, for OB when he's traveling is that
Bitcoin is completely decoupled from the rest of the crypto
market from the flow perspective, right?
You're just talking about the Bitcoin ETFs.
Normally that, but then you have, you know, Sailor sitting
there on the bed every so often, whereas the rest of the crypto
market, it more closely resembles what we're seeing kind
of like the tech stocks and some of the more frontier tech
things. What stands out is just listen,
I love ETH. I think we all do, even if
people say they don't anymore. I think we all came through the
NFT ecosystem. It holds a special place in our
hearts. It's great that we have new
leadership at the foundation and they're like more focused on UX
scaling the L1 and just the BLOB fee structure.
But it is painful to see it, you know, at the same prices where
it was back when we were fumbling into NFTS 4 years ago.
So I think it's a good opportunity here.
But I've been saying that for a while.
Obviously it's been completely wrong.
And so, you know, I've stopped saying it publicly not to
embarrass myself further. But the rest of the market, I
think it's just going to be challenged.
There's no, there's not a lot of demand from new capital that
would look beyond, you know, your Bitcoin maybe like you're
eating your Solana to really support the level of supply that
we're seeing across the board, right?
Like the other day there was what $69 million worth of
investments announced into new L ones like give me a break.
Nobody uses anything. I mean, even like hardly ever
anybody uses it anymore like gas, like .1.
So, so the fact that, you know, we all know liquidity for this
funds for this investments will come from your token launches it
it's just a bit of a, it's a bit tragic because all of that is
just going to take away liquidity from the market
itself, right? It's going to go into the wrong
places. And so, yeah, for, for, for
certain investors that get to buy tokens are a fraction of a
penny, wait a year and dump it at $0.05.
Of course you're going to keep on doing that.
But for the average user that's coming in and say, hey, I used
this test net or I use this like new chain, I like it a lot.
It's fast, it gave me points. I'm going to buy some more of
the tokens. And then it goes from $0.05 back
to 1 cent, right? We're going to keep on losing
potential, you know, adopters and users.
So I think it's a, it's a very negative flywheel that I hope it
stops one day, but I I don't see it stopping.
So what's my outlook? I think, you know, Bitcoin
continues to outperform everything.
I think depending on how you calculate BTC dominance, it will
just continue to remain very elevated, especially as gold,
you know, obviously it's come off, but it's, it's, you know,
multi tech historic highs. So that narrative of Bitcoin
being digital gold, I think plays really well.
And two, just ease of access, right?
Like anybody can buy Bitcoin through the ETFs.
You know, a whole new like you can't really put ether or Solana
in retirement accounts, you can't put Bitcoin.
So that opens up a lot of new different portfolios that the
asset can go into. Obviously we're hearing talk
about, you know, other strategic reserves across the world from
countries and so on. And that's all Bitcoin.
So that, you know, with the couple, I think you'll bring a
lot of frustration to people that expect that old cycle to
come one day, you know, rolling down from Bitcoin into the rest
of the stuff. Unless we get some like massive
stimulus package, I don't see that happen.
We'll see pockets of, you know, excitement like we're seeing
with Sui. I think they're doing things
right. Obviously, Solana, you know,
playing the game really well, you know, setting up loving
effort in DC, hiring the ex head of the blockchain association to
push for that. They're pushing hard into New
York with their new office. So like those kinds of plays,
yes, but like the overall market, I think unless we get
stimulus, it's just going to be a continuous just kind of like
meltdown and and kind of very similar to so with IFTC 21,
right, Like it was like everything was pumping and then
only three things were pumping and then it was like at the very
end, it was like apes other side and ape chain and then
everything just melted. And and that's my expectation
for like the overall crypto spot Mark.
Interesting, and that a little a little gloomy, but I I think
fair. I just buy Bitcoin either in
Salon, I call it a day. If you want to gamble, there's a
lot of fun stuff to gamble on, but they're not investments.
I think that's, I think that's the difference, right?
I'm thinking long term misinvestment, change the world
kind of thing. It will be the top 3 or 4.
You know, networks if you want to have fun, play a meme.
That's different, right? That's like, you know, if you
want to be a better quarterback or you're a high school senior,
you're watching a lot of tape, you're not watching ESPN for
like the line on the games this weekend.
I think that's the difference, right?
You either want to be a good investor, long term
technologist, or you want to be a good short term trader, play
the narratives, understand like meme cycles and all that stuff.
And those are two very, very different fields.
Same thing happens in traditional finance of the
Warren Buffett's of the world, right?
Like there was a very stupid headline going around like, oh,
Warren Buffett owns 5% of all treasuries.
And it's idiotic. Like if you do not know Warren
Buffett's business model, of course you're like, Oh my God,
you think it's like that he owns treasuries.
No, he owns one of the largest insurance groups in the world
and they have to stash the cash somewhere and they own
treasuries, period. Like that's where you, yes, you
know, it's risk free rate, but his business over the last 50
years have been building like undervalue companies with those
insurance funds and just leveraging that over and over
again, right. Versus somebody like, you know,
the guys that run, you know, Brevan Howard and Millennium and
all those hedge funds that are really more looking for, you
know, a different kind of play that used to leverage
derivatives and so on. And and and and there's room for
everybody to my point. And so market wise by the big
guys, if you're thinking long term, you want to sleep at
night, you have a nine to five. You don't want to be worried
about, you know, sitting on pump fun.
Or or boot fun, which we'll get to here.
Or the new one? Yeah, great.
Great advice. The the benefit to the listeners
of this show is on a daily basis they get they get Mando's macro
outlook. And.
Then they go, they get to go venture down the risk curve with
me and all. The.
Did you make a did you make a coin yesterday, Tyler?
Not yet, but it's on my To Do List for today.
I do think I am going to launch one.
Yeah, why not? I think the upside, the upside
is just too strong. You know, it'll come with all
the disclaimers. I'm not going to run it like a
project. Don't expect you know me to run
this like Mandarin, Epic. It's going to be a collectible
NFADYOR. It's so fucking hilarious, like
I actually have tried to tried to do this for the last year.
Now everyone's just launched 1. And then rugged it like
literally insta rug from like the top 300 kols in the space.
Yeah, ridiculous. Are you going to do another one?
No. No, to get your I'm.
Done. I'm done.
Yeah, very fair. We'll we'll see.
I haven't clicked the the launch button just yet, but I'm in that
400,000 token tier and of course I don't expect that boop token
to be quite as high in 20 to 30 days as it is now, but it's a
decent little AirDrop, so enough to to consider the the decision
here. It's trading at 350 million,
still 335 cents. I'll be honest, when it was
straight down yesterday and the sentiment all over the timeline
was very negative, I thought it was already over.
But it seems like they flipped the script overnight.
I think they got the platform back working and then Dingling
rolled in with 1000 soul and said I'm going to buy some of
these tokens. That was enough to help shift
things. And then their incentives are
good. Like this does not mean that
good good meme coins are going to come out of this ecosystem,
but the incentives are there. So every day, 1,000,000 tokens
are given out to create to creators and holders of tokens
that graduate. That's that's.
A good thing, it feels. It feels like it's rare all over
again. It's like cool tokenomics that
that will fizzle out in two few months, right?
Yeah. Remember the looks of that job
Which? Is a long time well.
Free money's free money though, if you can get it.
Of course. So I think they are, I think
they're going to have some success.
Well, again, I'm curious for your thoughts on the launch.
Sorry, we've been, we've been talking about this a little bit
incentivizing Kols to launch coins that they don't want, like
an action that they don't want to take.
And they're just going to say, but do not buy in the tagline of
the coin or even name it, do not buy.
What's the point of that? You know, I don't know, I've
grappled with it and like initially upon launch, I went
back and forth just a little bit, but ultimately I, I, I
welcome the potential innovation and I definitely like champion
people trying to do new things. I'm all for that.
And I think it's great that they incentivize people to take the
actions that they want them to take, right?
They wanted people to launch tokens.
They want people to buy tokens, so they're incentivizing them to
do so. That makes a lot of sense to me.
What makes less sense to me is just the fact that the people
themselves don't want to do so. And it became so loud on the
timeline that nobody wanted to do so.
And you created like this instant negative sentiment as
you, as you mentioned, that permeated my timeline.
I would imagine almost everybody's timeline.
I did not see many positive takes yesterday.
Of course, getting the platform up and running is a great first
start to to combat that, but I actually like, I haven't been on
too much this morning just yet. Like where have you noticed a a
sentiment shift this morning, Tyler?
Or or not I think. So the.
Again. The public started to work and I
think more people launch tokens and then like they're starting
to have some winners. So like this Bupa token is now
the top performer. It's at 7.5 million market cap.
I think that's higher than any of Radium's launch lab tokens
went. So they've already outperformed
Radium's launch lab. Well, money talks.
So yeah, people are making money.
This, I would imagine sentiment shifts just a little bit and
people are feeling a little bit better about things.
But I, I think I'm with Mando at this point.
I mean, the sustainability. I just, I don't know, I would
like to see something work. Of course, I'm not rooting
against boop dot fund. I'm just leery of and wary of,
you know, something like this having happened many times in
the past and not having succeeded so.
Yeah, I think being wary is the correct, the correct emotion
slash reaction. We'll, we'll see.
I think they'll continue to get interaction through this
weekend. One item, a note with all the
focus on boop yesterday, and perhaps that was their goal,
perhaps getting the KO LS to do all this was just a massive
attention event and they got it. They they nailed the attention
event. That's undeniable.
I think some of the the hotter new coins of the day were were
still launched on Pom pom. So I think there's still going
to be a little bit of this is forced for farming slash air
drops versus like more true or organic means are going to be
perhaps elsewhere. So what we will see, man, I know
you you join us late. What we're going to get to a
conversation with with Sergito about me bits and that tease
here in a in a few minutes. But I'm curious, any big macro
topics that jumped out to you from the day we had the Sailor
news? Yeah, the selling new thing is
the big one, like the fact that he says it's going to be debt as
well. So is it debt or is it not?
Because like, that's what's confusing to me.
Have you had a chance to dig in? I just read what he wrote, which
is 42 billion of equity, 42 billion of fixed income, right?
That's what he wrote. The I mean Sailor is a is from a
financial background like I would assume he means 82
billion. Those are not the two, they are
not the two same things. Even if you were to say it like
that for convert, it wouldn't make sense.
So I don't know. But if it's fixed income as debt
and that that would worry me. Yeah.
As it says in October, the company in October they said
they plan to raise 42 and he's saying he's doubling it.
So he is saying it's. So again, if your friend said
I'm going to raise $42 billion of debt to buy Bitcoin, would
you tell him that's a good idea or not?
He already, he still has. I was just writing this up the
other day. He still has like 20 billion
worth of the strike or STRK stuff in allowance and issuance
as well. So there's ammo there.
Right. But like, there's ammo.
He fired a shelf. It's like if I fired a shelf, I
want to raise 2020, $1 billion. He just said that like we may do
this. So it's not ammo unless the
market actually wants to buy that security from him, right?
Right. So, yeah, he has some, he has
some ammo on the shelf that he's filed for, but who knows, Like,
and I continue to think that if he wants, if he, if he wants to
raise $82 billion to buy Bitcoin, I think he's going to
need to raise debt. I don't think equity holder is
going to give him $82 billion to buy Bitcoin.
And that's what raised, and that's where this gets riskier.
Yeah. I continue to think that that
that adds an element of liquidation risk to what he's
going to do. Like if I was a micro strategy
equity holder, I would just tell him to stop.
I've said this so many times, he's got enough.
The benefit for you of him continuing to do this, I think
is very limited. It's very marginal at this
stage. And I think he just wants to buy
as much Bitcoin as he had. It's like, it's like one man's
maniacal dream to buy, own as much Bitcoin.
And if you want to buy $82 billion of Bitcoin, you know,
there's a chance that like at some stage if Bitcoin was to
drop 50% and he has fixed income securities with maturities
around them or or covenant or whatever like that, this could
get nasty. I mean, so you 2 will know this
very, very well. I believe he's AB rated credit
already micro strategy, I think maybe B plus or B minus.
But but if he was to raise $42 billion of debt, this is going
to be like triple C all over it. And, and triple C would be a
high, you know, debt markets would assume that he there's a
good chance that he would get liquid in.
Is it like probably like a 14 percent, 16%?
Right. This is what I mean.
It's like this could get nasty if he wants to try and do that.
So I like, I like Sailor. I think he's played a blinder.
I think he should stop. Yeah.
Yeah, I think it very, very fair.
And I'll continue just to point in on this like when you read
the article that he shares in the tweet, he says 442,000,000
in fixed income. So debt you're spot on.
But for whatever reason in their, their report, there is no
mention of that. And then like in, in their
summary, they only point to the common, the equity offering,
which is the, the safer piece of this.
So maybe it's something he's going to keep up his sleeve.
I think our, our best hope is that he's he's going to keep it
up his sleeve as a potential option, but he doesn't execute
it, I guess, and just continues to, to, to, to go the the
equity. Offering if he buys with equity
I don't care. Like keep doing it.
It's just an ETF and and yeah, it trades with a premium.
If I was an equity holder, because it's trades at a premium
right now, I might not be that happy about it because you're
going to keep on diluting that premium.
But but if you advise it with debt, I think everyone should
worry. Very fair.
Well, well, folks, we're going to get to our conversation with
Sergito. The code for today for those
heat spins is boop. Rafflebot code is boop.
So we'll get to those probably here in about 10-15 minutes.
Well, Sergito, one of the reasons we wanted to be coming
on the macro conversation was, was fantastic for.
So thanks for jumping in on that.
I feel like there's been some, some big news in the me bit
streets. Before we get into the, the, the
breaking news though, let's maybe this is our first chance
that we've had to, to really talk at least on air since the,
the, the takeover since the, the acquisition.
Oh man, 78 days ago on Valentine's Day.
Wow, we're going to be getting your first 100 days here soon.
Oh. God, I hope they're a little bit
better than what we've seen somewhere else.
Tell I'm sure you've said this a handful of times, but for some
of our listeners, we haven't heard it.
So why? Why'd you, why'd you want to
take over me bits? Two reasons.
First of all, I asked everybody who's followed me on Mock Me for
liking me bits over every other collection and you're probably
right investment wise over the last four years, you know, you
were definitely right. Market wise.
I love the ME bits. I think they are an incredible
just body of artwork from the premier artists, you know, the
legendary larva labs who kind of created this whole category, not
once, just with punks spying the ERC 721 standard.
Obviously almost every PFT collection is a derivative of
punk trades. Or they did it again with
Autoglyphs a few years later, which, you know, spawned the
generative, you know, tokenized generative art movement.
And obviously snow for a big early punk claimer always
credits Larva Labs with inspiration for art blocks and
everything that's come after that.
So I think they did it again in 21 with Meebits.
These are digital sculptures. They unlike every other
collection from that year, there were just layers on like a
Python script. The Mebits are created from
voxels or the algorithm really had to work to put all the
traits together and they include a lot of that technology that
and and concepts that develop for punks and cliffs into this.
For example, there on screen you have a couple of medias wearing
camel print pants. Now they use a generative
algorithm to create the camel print so that No2 medias are
wearing the exact same print when they're wearing camel.
So every single camel you know trait is unique.
You have stuff like, you know, the hoodie UPS that you have
there on screen. One just traded this morning.
I think it was that one obviously a nod to hoodie punks.
And and it's just, you know, 20,000 little characters running
around the metaverse. Their bet was that we will live
in a digital future much more immersive, you know, spaces
online. Obviously that has not really
materialized. I do think we're going to get
there. And so you know, these are you
look at lava labs body of work. It's punks as kind of like their
paintings, glyphs as their computer art and then meave it
as their digital sculptures. And and punks are in museums.
Obviously the you know, the Pompey do the ICA.
The Toledo Museum just announced a new exposition coming up here
in the next month or two with punks.
Glyphs are at the Whitney. Glyphs are in other museums as
well. And then I I would expect that
given that legacy and and just to show the completeness of the
body of work of of larval lapse themselves, me that's belong in
that conversation. So one, I think they're
incredibly cute. They're good looking.
I love the human body that just you know, we're by nature very
much in love with humanity. You look at art history
throughout, you know, our whole existence.
You know, the majority of the subjects of the piece of art are
human bodies, human faces and so on, right from caveman all the
way to to where we are today with like AI bots and the like.
So that was kind of like the the why I love me bits.
The reason why I decided to go ahead with with the transaction
and putting, you know, the company together is just I think
NFT network, NFT projects communities are incredible
distribution networks, their next generation distribution
network. We saw it with, you know, apes
and Penguins and so many of the others where you have this
global fanbase of people that are, you know, tech forward that
are really looking to just kind of integrate this new technology
into their lifestyle. I mean, we're all here on screen
because of NFTS pretty much. I mean, I don't know your
background, but I'm assuming it's around right there.
Obviously, Amanda and I were both sitting on trading desks at
Barclays, and we're now here because of NFTS.
And Tyler, you know, you're also here because of NFTS.
And so I think that there's an incredible opportunity to really
take this, you know, properties and bootstrap them to create
incredible distribution network companies.
And I'm not talking about selling hoodies and hats and so
on, but really being able to innovate with like new types of
financial products and so on. And so for me, it was the
perfect marriage between a community, a project that I
adore that I think has really high intrinsic value because of
the artists and the provenance, but also, you know, 20,000
tokens out there with an engaged, you know, fanbase.
We have 6400 wallets that hold them and it'll be some of the
largest names in the space, have a ton of mediates.
You know, Snow Fro being the largest meat collector that has
one of every single type of meat.
It's only one only collection in the world.
So a lot of people don't know that, but it's there.
And I think people that understand Larba kind of have
that same mentality. Just put the meat, it's away and
one day we'll get there. And so so it was that combo and
then the opportunity came about too, right?
Like there's a lot of things that we want to do, but you
know, sometimes it's not possible.
But the opportunity came about in December and so I jumped on
it. Well, we we're happy that that
you jumped on it and people may not notice.
I have a long story history with me miss myself.
I had quite the collection back in 2021 and a nice nice hoodies
suits pig. No, no elephants or aliens.
Collection has dwindled since then, but I'll be making my
trumpet return, don't worry. Next question Sergito.
So you bought or you acquired the project?
What's the the 1st 90 day plan like?
What are you focused on out of the gate?
Yeah, so we we published, you know, our four pillar plan, you
know, very innovative name. It's just four things that the
company, it's four of us in the company.
It's myself, it's Bailey who's our creative director, Token
Jogler, who's our head of tech and then Bojangle guys, our head
of community and OPS, all very much entrenched community
members since day one. And and we've just been obsessed
with needed. So we're just doing right now
what you know, we hoped Mevitz would have done in the past.
And no shame to you. I was one of our partners on the
cap table to meet the company. I think they had very ambitious
plans for a lot of the things they wanted to do in 22 and the
market turned on them. And so obviously you're a
company, you have to survive the bandwidth and resourcing, you
know, had to be focused on, on their main properties, which is
board aid on the other side and supporting aid chain.
But for us, it's just stuff like, like I said, 4 pillars,
the first one's art and Providence really bringing to
surface that incredible background that Meetbits have.
You know, we're doing a birthday celebration with Fellowship and
NOPAR. It's the 4th anniversary of
Meetbits tomorrow. So be on the lookout for that.
We're going to continue to just push on supporting artists with
collection. Again, incredible distribution
network. How do we use that to help
emerging artists reach new collectors?
The second thing is fun utility. Looking at what projects did
really well and maybe not so well over the last four years,
taking the best of that and using it to make holding a move
it just a fun experience. Maybe you're in it for the art,
but you also want to have fun. You want to have online
activations, you want to have physical activations, you'll
have cool merch. So we did an integration with
Player 0, which will launch on May 5th.
That's Monday, where all 20,000 move it will be integrated to
all the Player 0 games. So for the first time ever, you
know that kind of like dream that we all had in 21 of buying
an NFT and being able to use it in a game.
That's happening with Mevit and Player 0 on Monday.
So you connect your wallet and you have your Mevit available to
be played. They have like 4 or five games
right now. And there's a lot more games
coming on the pipeline. So it's really, really cool that
we're able to deliver that as far as our fun utility pillar
here within the 1st 100 days. The next one is tech innovation.
Obviously, you know, crypto, NFTS, blockchain, it's all
frontier tech. We're the bleeding edge of it
and we want to continue pushing. It's also a nod to the
provenance of larval apps. Obviously, Matt and John, even
before NFTS, right, they were like Google and Android
developers are always pushing the envelope with what could be
done with technology. And so we want need it to be a
conduit for that. So we announced a really cool
partnership with Think Agents. They're going to be using need
it as like the body of your AI agent.
We provided 10 me bits that can be used, the models of the user
hours that can be used for people to, you know, talk to to
their agent. And if you have a me bit,
connect your wallet and then you can interact directly with it,
which I think it's really, really cool.
And we have a couple of other things coming on the AI front.
Then lastly, the last pillar is community first, as I mentioned
before, the four of us, big members of the community, we
want to be there. We want to help, you know, build
together, win together, supporting people that want to
build their amoebits artist, whether that's like creators, we
have windows, a punk as well, create this incredible app
called Meepcamp. So it's meep.com.
It's a progressive web app. You can just access it on your
phone and you can make GIFs with your Meebid.
You can make videos with your Meebid.
My nieces, they have amoebid each.
They love playing with it. They always want to get on the
iPad and play with them even. And so stuff like that just
really, you know, building for the community because that's
what we're here for. I like the sounds of the plan
and you clearly have been busy and fast to work, so I'd love
seeing all these updates start to come out, maybe just a minute
or two left because I know we got to get to our eat spins
before we wrap things up. But how are you feeling about
the broader MFT market seeing some signs of life, but then
there's there's also been like has it been token driven?
So kind of how are you feeling about the broader market here?
I'm I'm feeling good. I think obviously we had, you
know, big art sales recently. I think people try to pretend
that technology is going to strip away human nature when
reality, what technology does actually enhances human nature,
right? So greed, fear, power loss, all
of that is enhanced by technology.
So technology is a great democratizer, but doesn't change
the way who we are. And so, yeah, we'll continue to
see, you know, top parties continue to have top sales, top
projects continue to evolve. And then, you know, some of the
tales should really start to dwindle.
But I think it's a good time to build for NFTS, especially with
Disney Rainier interest from the Ethereum Foundation to make the
the, the chain more UX friendly, more consumer friendly.
You know, it's no secret, as much as I love a couple of the
NFT communities that I am part of in Solana, you know, they
never really hit the prominence that NFT communities on ETH hit,
even while Solana was, you know, much higher last year.
And I'm a problematic lad. I have three of them.
I love them. I love that community, but they
never were able to like step outside that little bubble,
whereas ETH projects and ETH artists have.
So I think again, cyclical, you know, it's frontier tech, but
as, as as long as people continue to innovate and we have
founders and leaders and collectors and community members
who want to push them to look forward, I think we'll be fine.
And it just, you know, as long as people don't like also get
over their skis, right? Don't spend like half $1,000,000
on a JPG just because you think you can sell for 750,000 in a
month. We'll be fine.
Be more like Mando. Buy them for $400.00 and sell
them for $400 million three years later.
That's a better. That's a better return right
there. Final question, I'd love to talk
about the Bitcoin punk spread on this show.
Bitcoin punk spread. Everyone right now, which is
going to outperform for the rest of this year.
I think for the rest of the year you're going to see punks
outperform. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
At the end of the day, we just talked about how arts just
started to heat up. Obviously punks have been on a
heater recently in ether terms, but not really in dollar terms
because ether performs. I think the long term base price
for punks is like $70,000 and we're, you know, just right
about there. So, so I would expect punks to,
you know, like triple from here to your end.
There's only 10,000 of them and all you need is somebody to come
in like what happened in 21. You want to deploy a couple
$1,000,000, which is nothing in the greater scheme of things.
And the thesis of, you know, people make money in Krypton by
a punk continues to play out. You know, I handle the, I, the
admin for the punk community on Telegram.
I mean, you bought a punk after having an incredible run with
coins over the last, you know, year.
And so those punks are being put away and, and they're not going
back to market. So, so yeah, there's a lot more
convexity to punks than there is to Bitcoin.
And and I like them both, but I I think punks outperform.
Oh, I like that, as someone who's been trying to tout the
punk side of that ratio for a while.
We're down about 20%, but still a lot of time on the clock.
Look at this board. This is the the thinnest of 50 I
think I've ever. I mean, that's bad.
Yeah, I haven't. Been looking the market too much
lately, to be honest, because I've just been really busy with
Nevis. But it used to be I wake up
every day and check the I know Farrak and I, when we were like,
you know, starting to talk about punks back in the day.
Every single day I'll be checking the the market.
And it's mostly like a discovery of like, oh, this is a really
cool trade or a cool combination rather than the price.
But yeah, it doesn't take long. They're great, You know,
collateral. I borrow against some of my
palms. Use that to buy Bitcoin.
So I double. The double, you know, kind of
like bet there, yeah. And it's a great community, as
you've seen. Well.
I appreciate your insights on NFTS, me bets, and macro of
course. I guess just anything you want
to leave our listeners with before we go to the eat spends.
Anything they need to be looking out for?
Yeah, no, I mean, obviously we'd love to have people come and
just look at what we're doing with medias.
If it resonates, you know, submit the, I'm happy to chat
through the plans. I think we have not had a lot of
the catalysts that other projects have had.
So I think even from that perspective, and though I'm not
advocating for a financial investment, I do think that, you
know, there's a lot to like when it comes to Nevis.
And now there's a fully dedicated team.
We have one confirmation, you know, there are investors, you
know, helping us push the space forward.
So I'm really excited for it. So well, welcome everybody.
Just to take a look. They're not the Mevis from 21
anymore. Is this a you know Mevis 2 point
O? Mevis 2 point O is a great way
to end it. Well, Sergio, it's great to
catch up. Thank you for having me.