Well, TM everyone. And then there were two only me
and OSF. On today's show, OSF looks about
a 5 out of 10 I would say. Thanks mate.
Big night. Was it?
Or you've just woken up? Basically so.
I've not just woken up, but I worked out this morning.
Really worked. Out this morning and his audio's
gone. It's a good start.
It's a strong start. One man show, one down, one to
go look at. Today is going to be the classic
show that we've been doing for the last the last few days.
It's going to be the five or six top things.
Unfortunately, Cali can make it today.
He's in Italy for Oak, is in flying back, I believe from
Singapore had a great time. He's going to be in Europe next
week. So it's just going to be OSF and
myself. We are sponsored by cracking NFT
crack and crack and crack and NFT.
They came on the show last week. They are they're going to be our
sponsor for the whole month. They're going to arrange
different things with the rug radio crew.
Check themoutcrackand.com for slash rug radio.
They are obviously moving into the NFT exchange space.
We wish them all the best. I'm sure there is wood to chop
and they are primed to do it. We're also going to be we're
also going to have Alien Queen on the show.
We had her on Monday talk through her.
Her burn stubs burn you that that burning is already open.
I've put it in the show notes. It's an awesome piece.
We will have her on to take a look through it.
I know Seth you missed you missed her on Monday.
But we will we will get to her probably in the next 25 minutes.
Are you back? Is your, is your audio?
Is back. Yeah, I can hear you.
Your audio is back. Awesome.
All right, well, we'll dive straight into it, which I think
the crypto is kind of unchanged overnight.
There's nothing really to report.
Yeah, I saw some massive volumes.
You've seen this this thing Hifi, it's doing what cyber did
last week. So like crazy volumes going
through one of these small tickers and it's being
manipulated by that DWF market maker.
Other than that, crypto seems to have been marginally lower,
maybe 1% lower from yesterday, but still broadly held onto the
gains that it had. That seems to be getting lower
as the day goes on though. The main thing that did happen
though overnight is friend tech had a bit of a went a bit South
and you saw, I mean it was hitting at the highs for a
number of different metrics again and then suddenly it's it
all seemed to go a bit SI think most most prices went down
3040%. It all seemed to coincide with
Steve Aoki joining the platform which as everyone knows is is a
is a bit of a curse for for most most things in crypto.
He actually saw his his own friend tech go up to like 1.8
and then he bought the top of his Eventec, which is just like,
I don't know, I hope he squared. What do you think?
You think you think this this is just temporary, or you reckon
we'll rebound? I think we'll rebound.
I think there's too much going on, too much curiosity for it to
just go away. People will continue to farm
airdrops. I think you'll get like the
farmer crowd from Blair, etcetera, come in to Friend Tech
and figure out ways to bought it etcetera.
I also think you might typically see selling.
Of stuff into Friday, which is when you get the AirDrop points.
So I don't know, some people were talking about that.
Maybe that's to do with it as well.
And I also think a lot of people were in early and there's a lot
of people have made five to 10 X's on their staff.
So it just seems like a natural profit taking point for a lot of
people. But you've seen the growth stats
of like, I think Tyler, Tyler D post them every day and it's
pretty exponential growth stats both in terms of TVL.
And number of users. And it's hard for me to think
maybe that I mean that the rate of growth obviously eventually
slows down, but I think it keeps growing because there's just
nothing else going on right now. Like crypto is pretty darn
boring. There's nothing really going on
in shit coins, nothing really going on in NFTS.
And this is a platform that people are making money on.
It's pretty degenerate and it stretch your ego.
So it's just like the ultimate thing to spend time on I think.
And I think you will see more and more people start to use it
in my opinion. Yeah they actually, I'm just
sharing my screen now, seems that if you I'll produce you can
see that. But we are overtook Lido for
fees generated. It overtaken Bitcoin recently
but now seems to be just behind Ethereum.
I don't know if this is a top signal or not, but that is a
crazy amount for it to be just behind Ethereum.
Now in terms of fees generated, that's one day $2.22 million
worth of fees. It's kind of nuts.
But yeah, Friday is the big air drop day.
I I saw a couple of things. It it seems like the majority of
the air drops are just tied to the value of the portfolio that
you have. Yeah.
So far more than like if you're a creator, if you actually own a
large portfolio, you get a lot of lot of points.
So I think that's going to be important for people.
But there's also this whole idea of three.
Three, you meant to hold on to the keys for as long as possible
to get the maximum number of air drops.
So I'm surprised you had to sell off before this Friday, but
maybe it's just because people like they just brought forward
the idea that they would set up after that AirDrop hit.
So maybe it's just coming into that.
But yeah, Ioki strikes again tired.
I'll just share his daily stats. But metrics volume hit 20
million, you're at the high sell.
Volume almost outpaces by volume.
So kind of the same 9000 new users sign up.
I've, I mean I mean I'm on one of those bot things that tells
you when a new user signs up and there's just so many new people
coming to that platform every single day.
But the TVI did slightly full obviously.
I hope you made this move and that was that was one of the
main people but then you had people across business, sports,
food, me named a few different people.
So it's yeah, it's going to be interesting to see where this
one develops. I don't think it's over, but I
do think it got a bit bit frothy versus the number of users
there, right. So maybe we need to see some
user growth for it to to it to kind of push on from there.
So I want to keep an eye on, there'll be a lot of people
posting how many points they got on friend tech today.
And I think it's going to become even more clear what's what's
like the main thing driving driving those points.
I think it's will mean even more farming.
The the second thing today was where do I put my show notes
here? Yeah, the 2023 lows, have we
seen them? There's a few different
technical factors that were breached yesterday.
I think Bitcoin ends up going above it's like 200 day 4 hour
chart or something like that. So a lot of technical people
were like oh maybe we're going to go slightly higher.
Lows were at the start of the year, right?
They were, they were 20K roughly all just under that 18K.
I think I'm Bitcoin and and like 1200 area on East where as we
were heading lower towards 1500, everyone was like oh this could
go all the way down even further.
What do you think? Do you think we can we could
breach them at all OSF or do you think it's kind of we're kind of
sideways or slightly hard from here for the rest of the year?
It's tough to say. It's tough to extrapolate to the
rest of the year because. You have the Binance thing in
the background. I don't think it's going to come
to anything serious but you never know and you just know
like they're always sees crypto has fat tails there's always
some random like black spine result in this fat that causes
it to spike lower. But you know, we have had nine,
what is it, nine weeks of straight red candles while the
macro environment's been pretty strong and.
You know we've had stocks go up like 10 to 15% on the NASDAQ and
the same time period encrypted has gone 20 to 30% lower.
And I know the correlation has broken down, but you know if you
if you zoom out there should be some correlation.
So I do think like I wouldn't be surprised if we have seen the
lawyers. I wouldn't be surprised if we do
progress higher from here. Like I still don't.
No one still really seems to know what the big selling
pressure was from like It could have been U.S. government
selling, could have been finance selling.
Maybe it's anticipation of this FTX stuff, I don't really know.
But it does kind of feel like that selling has subsided.
And remember originally that selling was in Bitcoin and we
saw Bitcoin dominance drop quite a lot.
We saw ETH outperformed. That's Bitcoin.
If you look at those numbers now, ETH Bitcoin is like at
0.061, which is the lowest it's been for about a month.
And Bitcoin dominance is up to 50.2%, which is the highest it's
been for a month. So that does.
Indicate that whatever forced or pressured selling that wasn't
Bitcoin has now subsided and people seem to be getting along
there. So I think that's a good sign.
I think you want to remember this whole seller started with
Bitcoin underperforming and now we're seeing Bitcoin outperform.
And if that progresses higher and you see the dominance go
back towards 51%, I think you'll start to see eth Rally start to
see Ult Rally. So it feels like we've had a
healthy. Consolidation period to me and
it feels like we should go higher, but I'm just saying it's
out feeling rather than out of knowing.
I saw this today which I thought was interesting that a lot of
people on the way down were saying you know stablecoin,
total market gap of all the stablecoins has been going lower
and it's been going lower for the last two years or at least
the last 18 months. You have actually seen over the
last over the last month, the actual stablecoin level has
started to increase again. It's not crazy, but you have
started to see that money has stopped flowing out of crypto so
to speak. And I thought that was quite an
interesting, quite an interesting thing to look at.
So I think maybe it's difficult to imagine us hitting fresh like
are we going to go through the lows of where we were at?
FTX seems seems tough to imagine, right, particularly in
this sort of environment where where you have liquidity kind of
stabilizing. And I don't know like the
commentary kind of seemingly coming away from Singapore for
this conference just seems to be that, yeah, the US might not be
in a great spot, but the rest of the world just continues to go
for it. The main risk what you said I
think I think is just random headlines finance the again more
US executives this is important it's US and the rest of the
world is their legal executives and it did come out yesterday.
The SEC is they basically said that finance is not playing ball
with them and they've complained about that.
I think I think it could very easily this this is going to
turn into a DOJ trial. We're going to, we're going to
hear about that or maybe that's already happening, maybe that's
already happening and we could see some more headlines around
how they're going to shut down the US and maybe some charges
even that they have to accept for CZ and finance broadly.
I think that probably is a is a small dump, but it's, it depends
on what the headline is, right. Like if it's if it's just a
fine, I don't think it's that bad.
I think that's a sort of dump that you buy, right?
I think so, yeah. I think that's the sort of dump
that you buy, I think. I just think in general like.
Sentiments got got really low like poor over the last couple
of weeks and it's it's at the point now where anyone who's
still around is really like the scraping the barrel of who's
left in crypto. And I think to me it feels like
we've kind of get into that final bit of like people could
pitch dates and be like I'll screw this.
So yeah, like I think any dip from here you're kind of meant
to buy. I think you went to DCA for the
last few weeks and. Yeah, I don't know.
I just feel that we bottomed out, doesn't it?
It does a little bit. That was a big sport around 25K.
Yeah, exactly. I got cats and we bounced off it
meaningfully, didn't we? We bounced off it pretty
meaningfully. We might have another go at it,
who knows. But it does feel as though for
now. And the other thing is, is I'll
share this as well. It's been a lot of spot buying.
The buying spot is it's more aggressive than sellers.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a pot very soon.
This is like the net taker volume which you see on
exchanges, but this shows a lot of spot buying of Bitcoin and at
the same time you've seen very high shorts being put on them in
the in the market. Obviously this is this is over
600 trillion of shorts. There's nowhere near that, but
you've seen large amounts of shorts being added versus spot
buying and that always feels like a nice spot to be in.
So who knows? It does feel like we're probably
going to get another opportunity to to to catch this route.
Hopefully it does feel like stuff's slightly lower again
today, but nothing, nothing too bad.
The third thing to say is we are nearly one year or I think
exactly one year from the merge today.
And no, no, this is the merge that changed how Bitcoin went
from a proof of work to a proof of steak chain.
You also had the bun going on since then, interestingly, like
EBTC. So east versus BTC is down 18%
since the merge. There's not really much to say
about that, but I think people, people were really thinking E
could flip Bitcoin with this, and yet it hasn't really.
Can we see, can we see the ultrasounds on the website and
see how much E has been burnt since the merge now?
Yeah, sure. I think it's about nought .2%.
I think it's about nought .2%, which is which is decent, like,
yeah, the nought .25. That's a lot, like that's
300,000 EVE. Yeah, I mean, I always like
looking at it versus the proof of work like Eve had continued.
That's a net difference of about 3.3%, right?
Almost 3.4%, yeah, which is a big, big difference.
And it's one of these things I think will make a big deal over
the long run rather than short term.
Maybe one year isn't long enough for this to work out, but versus
something like Bitcoin, it's quite a big difference.
I think like Bitcoin is up, supplies up. 2% or 1.7% is like
a 1.8% difference. Since then, Bitcoin has
outperformed though, But I think that's more just the bear
market. Rather than these, I do think
these are the sort of things that if you're involved in EVE
during a bear market, you still had a burn.
And I think a lot of people say that, you know, although this is
nice that it has a burn, you can never be sure what will happen.
For example, over the last, I think over the last maybe 30
days, ETH has actually been inflationary.
Yeah, it's been slightly inflationary over the last, over
the last 30 days. So you can never be sure whether
you thought it's going to happen.
But I think we can all agree that this has not been an active
period for for, for blockchain use.
It's clearly been a bit of a bear market.
So I think you're in a bull market.
You can only assume those factors go up even even
stronger. But I do think it was surprising
at 18% and 18% under forms of this Bitcoin is with that big a
difference in inflation of the two of them that's effectively
like a 2223% difference in in in returns.
But I do think yeah it'll change it'll change open medium time.
The the other main things to mention today, let me just bring
up the topics I should have just put them at the top.
Paradigm Paradigm are doing another $1 billion investment.
These are the people that invest in friend tech.
They they obviously have been behind a number of different
things in the space including things like Blur, R, Cobblers
and a bunch of other more tech and D5 focused things in crypto.
Probably the the best known VC I think left in crypto.
Would you say OSF? Yeah.
What do you mean, Like best known?
Like most prominent or? Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, I think so. I don't.
They don't have the great greatest reputation, do they?
But sorry, the the dog's yelling at me.
Dog hates Paradigm. Yeah, them and a sixteen's
there, but they they paradigms seem to be more involved in lots
of like different things that have become prominent projects
in the space. Like obviously blur friend tech
now. So yeah, I would agree those
two. Yeah.
Well, the other ones are couplers, but I didn't want to
say that I said it. They did say that they remember
a while back they got kind of ratio for the idea.
They tried to like take away crypto from their home and
stuff. It does feel like they're going
to come back to it. They've clearly had some success
and some of their investments. Even with this, I think Finance
Venture Ventures is actually still like the biggest investor
over the last 12 months. It's done the most investments
but it does feel as though paradigm a bit A $1 billion fund
is not small for crypto V C's. Interestingly I have seen some
even though everyone still still seems a little bit bullish about
what's been going on in in Singapore.
Some of the commentaries from V C's does seem to still be a
little bit pessimistic. I I do think most V C's across
the board have been, have been smoked recently like was moving
rates has not been has not been a pretty one And I think I think
that's going to that's going to affect people for a for a while
a lot of people. I think BC investment broadly is
down something like 7580% since 2021.
So it's not been a, it's not been a good period if you've
been a BC in the space. So I've seen this sort of stuff
from probably the most well known BCI think is a is a
decent, a decent part to be in. And then finally we had Ray
Dalio who came out and said cash is the best investment right
now. We have there's another crypto,
there's another conference going on in Singapore right now and
you had both the CEO of Citadel, who's Ken Griffin, who's
incredibly well known and Ray Dalio coming out and being very,
very bearish on the market. He said Billionaire investor Ray
Dalio, who runs Bridgewater or at least is involved in
Bridgewater, sounds alarming the US debt and says bonds aren't
that good long term investment. He said he preferred it be in
cash. What do you think in terms of
macro stuff away from crypto? How?
How do you feel? About macro, I mean would you?
Cash is a bit of a weird one to pick.
Like, does cash include being in treasuries?
Like we seem to be sounding the alarm on the US debt, so I.
So he's literally saying fixed income is not a good investment
either. Yeah, he's basically saying own,
which is kind of almost like a crypto investment.
At the same time, it's like if you really think that.
Yeah, it's going to be a debt issue here then then you kind of
want to hold if is the dollar going to be a good thing to even
own. But I would agree it's it's a
little bit vague in what he's saying.
You also had Ken Griffin come out though and say is your
anxious about 23 stock market and warns in fact a higher rate
do you think we think macro it's still gonna have a strong end of
the year which would I would. Yeah, it's a good question.
I I kind of see where you're going towards, I don't think I'd
be long stocks here. I think you could see a pullback
in stocks, not a huge one, but I think you can see a pullback.
And so it wouldn't be long stocks here.
I think interest rates, I personally think interest rates
are probably topped out here. I don't think they're gonna go
meaningfully higher. They might stay around here for
a long time. So like it's not necessarily the
greatest long like I guess you get some good carry but you're
not going to get like that much capital appreciation in the
standpoint. So maybe that's not really the
best long. And you know anything with a
macro, I think commodities will go higher like I think oil can
go higher. I think that's probably a good
pocket of like capital appreciation.
But yeah, there isn't really anything like terribly exciting.
I see where it's coming from. There isn't really anything
terribly exciting in macro and some things are uncertain.
So you know, if you hold cash, you might be able to get in on
some stuff at like a bigger discount and I think you want to
have some liquidity to spend there.
If you're just focused in macro, again, I think it's still a
great loan because all that stuff is down so much so.
The VIX crypto, Yeah, which is? Which is the volatile and like
that it shows volatility in the market.
It's down a lot. I think it's currently trading
around 13. It's been it's been hitting
fresh lows day after day. It does feel.
Like you want to own some cash here just in case volatility
picks up. Like just one headline can
really cause a dump, I think in in macro.
So I think it's not a bad, not a bad idea to consider having a
bit more cash because that will be one of these days where it's
down. I don't think the S and P's been
down more than 1 1/2% for like the longest period in years.
It's going to be one of these days where it just feels
terrible. And I do think that you're meant
to. Have some cash here just to be
able to buy on those sort of days.
I'm not macro bearish, I don't think entering some sort of like
credit crisis or anything like that.
I think I think we're probably into a period of more subdued
returns. But I do think you want to have
a bit more cash and that's probably the same in crypto as
well, right. It on those days crypto will
also feel a little bit terrible. So I think volatility, what I
bet is that volatility will pick up towards.
Between now and your end and you won't have cash for that period,
rather than me being super bearish on everything going on,
yeah, I I definitely, I agree with that.
The other small stuff going on in, in NF T's, you had Nakamigos
who are doing the Mint. It's now 100% going to be free
for for for holders. The Nakamigos for I think was up
about 30% on the back of that. I'm just checking in on degens.
And you also had nouns. Nouns, it looks like 50 percent,
50% of all the nouns have now decided they are going to leave
nouns down and get back there 35 E So you've seen nouns
increasingly go up the lead tables in terms of, in terms of
volumes, I think it was the most active collection from yesterday
is trading at 828th. And interesting that the trading
is slightly above where you'll be able to get your money back.
So all that says to me is that people are.
People to kind of that's how much the art is worth seemingly
like 2 E because the owner now elsewhere it's not been still
not been that pretty ladies are still is bounced slightly but
it's still around 2 board. Apes has dipped around 24 area
and that's kind of across the board.
There was some stuff coming up on the gaming side for EU
collapse, but nothing really nothing we need to write home
about. Okay, we should bring up Alien
Queen if she is around. Is she around?
Hey, guys. Hey, hey.
How's it going? Good, thanks.
How you doing? I'm good.
Just busy, you know, You guys know my life, but yeah.
We thought you bring up again just quickly for the Stubsburn.
I put the Stubsburn in the show notes Everyone.
I believe is it. 10 or 13 burns for this, so everyone's gonna
have to. But 13?
13 wow lucky number. 13 That is my lucky number.
For that is that's gonna be that's gonna be pretty
successful. I don't think I showed you when
you came. You came on the show on Tuesday,
but it's like a wrecked guy meets alien queen piece, Wrecked
warning. Yeah.
It's like a skeleton, but he's like, not dead.
He's like, still like a living skeleton.
Drinking wrecked juice, wrecked coffee, wrecked soup, whatever.
Wrecked liquid. That's so cool.
I like that a lot. Wrecked morning.
Yeah, and a bunch of psychedelics and shit.
And it's a pretty aggressive, pretty aggressive morning, I
know. But I feel like that's how we
feel internally. Yeah, that's true.
We feel like that sometimes inside, right?
Like with the space and and crypto and the bear mark and all
that shit. Like, I think this is how we
really feel. I know my weekends.
I can't wait to like, you know, relax and be a degen and get
wrecked. So I know that feeling of like,
waking up, checking the charts and he just like, like, for
fuck's sake, another day things lower.
Like, yeah, I definitely resonate with that.
Yeah, but. Nine weeks in a row, Nine weeks
in a row, having done like 13 weeks in a row, whatever it was
last year as well, like I know. Around the same time, right?
It's been around the same time. Yeah, they are brutal.
Get to learn about it. Anyway this we really thank you
for coming on Eddie and Queen and giving this us this piece of
art for for anyone who wants to claim Stubs today.
There was no code. You can just go on to the Stubs
website and you you can be out to claim or radio forward slash
Stubs and yeah it's going to be thirteen to burn.
You're going to have the whole weekend to burn.
And then we have another artist next week.
But you have tonight. Saturday, Sunday, hopefully we
get a bunch of people burning and getting this, getting this
piece. Hopefully it's a low addition
though at the same time, I think, I think 13 is a lot
people have to stop buying stubs to.
But yeah, we're super happy to have you obviously.
I just wanted to have you on this OSF.
Thanks. Guys, we'd want to sell.
Oh yeah, yes, Miss Monday. But yeah, we will see you at the
Rec Show in London in a month. I know that I'm excited.
I'm so excited. I need it.
Osf's excited. He's been playing for a long
time. Yeah.
Ohh, hold on. You're doing a boxing thing.
What are you gonna do? I'm not gonna drink.
Not gonna drink at the rest, so yeah.
I'm gonna eat a gummy. I'm gonna, I'm no, no alcohol,
no substances until 24th of November.
So. Wow, you're all gonna be squeaky
clean. In the next two months, you're
gonna be really fit, okay cool, less fun rec show.
But maybe we'll just have to spike the drink or something
like that. Yeah, maybe.
Maybe we'll have to do that officially.
Well, yeah, we'll see you in a month.
And thank you so much again for everyone go to go to the burn
link. I put it into the show notes You
get mint, this incredible piece by Annie and Queen and we will,
we will see you in London. Yep.
Bye guys. Bye.
OK, I think that's it for this week.
This maybe even my takeover period like I think for maybe
back next week. So unconfirmed.
Depends how how he travels. Are you here next week?
I will be here on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday possibly.
I'm flying on Wednesday. I fly on Wednesday and Thursday.
Cuz it takes me two days to get to Martha in Texas.
So are. You going to Martha?
Wow. Yeah, that's gonna be fun.
I have to fly from Miami to Austin to El Paso and then drive
for three hours. So.
What's Martha gonna look like? What are you doing there?
Just hanging out with the Art Block Spros.
Yeah, everyone's talking about how good Art Blocks is.
That's gonna be Art Blocks Ringers.
Do you own one fidenza? I have two Fidenzas actually.
OK. All right.
OK, and I have an auto glyph which is, I guess it's
generative art, but it's not. It's not an Art Blocks project.
I have a Gazer as well, Matt Cain Gazer.
That's an Art Blocks project. Are you gonna be like drawing
stuff when you're out there? You're gonna be part of, like, a
drawing circle, maybe. It feels like that's the sort of
stuff that happens at these events.
I don't think it's like a drawing circle type event
because it's everyone's like so like Co generated art yeah so
but there's quite a few people going like I think there's I
think they'll be good crowd. I kind of like events like that
because it's a bit more chill than you can actually speak to.
People appreciate the art and stuff.
Tough weeks to, you know, ghost over.
I think, yeah. That's why I was thinking I was
like, man, like I. Think maybe delay it a week, I
think. I think you can you can enjoy
more like every every day you drink is a, is a is a 10 seconds
of fitness lost in the ring. Do you know how to fight that?
I do, Yeah, I do. I think they're going to
announce it officially in the next couple of days.
I think they're going to make the official announcement of the
headline fight today, which is trading Lord.
I don't know trading Lord, but he's defending his title I've
seen. I've seen him, I've seen, yeah,
bit long himself, but yeah, yeah, I mean he's 1-2 and O so
and then after that they're gonna make announcements of the
different fights. So the guy I'm fighting will get
announced soon as well do. You fancy your chances?
I don't know. He's taller than me.
He's he's 6 inches tall than me and right now, yeah, and he's
also tall than me and height as well.
And he is all as it stands. He is 7 kilos heavier than me as
well. But the idea is the idea is that
he's supposed to drop 4 kilos and I'm supposed to gain 3
kilos, but I don't. I'm sure he'll do that.
I'm sure he'll do that, yeah. It's quite hard to.
I think I can. I think I mean.
It's 7 kilograms heavier. Yeah, I have.
To admit that doesn't sound like you're gonna win, but at the
same time. I'm back.
Can we bet on this already?
Is Robert doing? I don't know.
So rookie's involved in organizing as well.
So they're gonna ask him if Robert are gonna be on the
sponsor or not. But they should absolutely have
odds on it for sure. I think it'll be.
Yeah, 100%. I wanna put some money against
you. I hate your bets.
I just hate your bets. All right.
We will see you again on Monday. This has been GM Web Three
powered by Kraken NFT. Make sure you go check out the
burn link for alienqueenandgocheckoutkraken@kraken.com/rug
Radio. Shout out to the fair guys for
always doing the the stubs thing for us.
Go check them out. Fair dot XYZ as well.
All right. Thank you.
And we will see you again on Monday.