Well, GM, everyone is another day of the takeover by myself,
cows and OSF. I guess it's just really you
taking over from farogue now. Like it's You're the new
farogue. The new farogue now.
Growing into the shoes, big shoes to fill.
Yeah, you're getting a lot of. I mean your friend tech account
is just going nuts. I think it's like 3X overnight.
People are people are buying into the county pipe.
Meanwhile, the OSF man is spread as as actually it looks like
it's maybe narrowed recently. Someone I don't.
Know if you saw Deez's tweet, but someone in my someone in my
friend tech was like, you should tweet more about your friend
tech. And I was like, I'm not pumping
your bags get. I'm not pumping your bags.
Get. Yeah.
So you have some sort of weird repeater on there.
Good job. But it does.
I did see that. I did see that someone dumped
your friend. Check the moment that you the
moment that you decided you weren't going to pump them.
I'm OK. Pumping seems like Cali, I
think. I'm pretty sure you're OK
pumping. I haven't pumped anything.
No, of course not. All organic, baby organic.
Yeah, exactly. 1E1E for Cali. I think by the end of this, by
end of this anyway, we're going to get into the top five, six
things again that we've seen over the last 24 hours in
crypto. We are sponsored by Kraken NFT.
We had them on the show last week.
Go check it out. They are building our
marketplace. They're doing a bunch of
different activations alongside communities.
I know they worked with the guy and Leap, they're going to be
doing some stuff with their F1 team because they sponsor
Williams is going to be pretty cool.
They've been doing the point system for for D guards, which
is obviously been going well and I just expect to see them in and
around the NFT space for the foreseeable future.
So yeah, go check it out kraken.com/rug radio.
Anyway, we will get into probably the the kind of boring
macro stuff which was kind of looming over us for a little
bit, which was what happened in inflation today.
Inflation came in marginally worse than expected.
By worse that means higher. I think it came in like 3.7%
versus 3.6% expected or the core inflation was notably higher and
core inflation is the sorry, core inflation came in slightly
lower and core inflation is the bit that is the, I don't know,
it's the bit that people look at a little bit more because it
takes away some of the variability in the inflation
figures accounting to food and energy.
What did you guys think of that? The market kind of sold off
slightly and is now currently rallying.
We are rallying. I don't know if there was a
headline or something just then, but we've just, we've just taken
a bit of a green candle as the show has started.
I was buying, I was like it just felt strong to me.
The market, we had that news about finance overnight, which
we'll get into and the market didn't really care.
And then we had some news about this inflation figure.
And I don't know, it just feels as though shorts were being
added. And I don't know, I just thought
it's just set up for maybe a bit of a bounce here, maybe towards
27 K on Bitcoin and 1700 on each.
But what did you guys think? I think the numbers were good,
but we didn't really, to be honest with you, we didn't
really see a big market move either way because they're
pretty much bang in line with expectations.
But I think that we've seen, we've already seen interest
rates sell off in the past month when energy prices are rising
that we know that oil has been higher and elevated for the last
month. So a lot of the stuff is already
baked in I think. So for inflation to go higher
like that was obviously baked in, that was the consensus
number we came in exactly in line.
And then even core inflation like it was, it was actually,
sorry, headline inflation was 0.1 percentage point above
consensus and core inflation was in line.
If you look at the chart of core inflation has come down a lot
like it's still. Going down pretty a decent
amount for the last past year or so.
So I personally think it's encouraging.
But again like it's nothing unexpected, it's nothing that's
not already priced in. And I personally, I think what
we hear from the FOMC next week is maybe more important than
these numbers, but I don't think we've seen enough variance in
the data in the last. Two months for the FOMC to
communicate anything different. Like we have had some weaker
labor market prints. We've seen headline inflation
start to go back higher, but we've seen core inflation go
lower and this is in, in the an environment where energy prices
are rising once again. So like you still have like
rising energy prices versus maybe maybe a slightly weaker
labor market versus inflation kind of just coming in line with
expected and bottoming out on? Header inflation but still going
low on core. So for me there's nothing there
for the Fed to change their tune.
I think they'll just maintain that we'll use all tools
available to us as a man we need to.
I personally don't think they'll raise next week.
I think they'll probably hold, but I think if you get two more
months of weak labor market and. Lower core inflation.
Then I think you may start to see some communication of what
the plan is for next year, which I think most people are hoping
for a pivot, but that's that's where I stand right now.
Do you think I raise rates again?
I I think there's a good chance they don't, You know, I really
think there's a good chance they don't.
I don't think they need to. They can keep it here for they
can start communicating. We think we're going to keep it
here for a while, but I don't think there's a need.
To raise rates at the moment, because that's not gonna impact
the energy and oil price side of things, right?
So I don't think there's a need. What do you think, Alec?
Do you think? What do you think of this
inflation print? What do you think of if the
Fed's gonna have to raise from here?
I think gasoline. Gasoline's basically what caused
the spike, right? And I think that can go quite a
bit higher from here, maybe like another 1020%, maybe more.
I don't know. The oil price this year has been
relatively stable and if you see that go past 101, ten, 120,
whatever, then obviously that passes through to US gasoline
pretty pretty easily. I would just worry about the the
shelter index and how that looks.
I think that's the one part of the inflation narrative which.
Is controlled by rates and maybe is in a little bit of a tight
spot, huh? Isn't it getting hammered the in
place the shelter in this? So far, yeah.
But I think it can rebound quite easily if like, there's a
current. Why do you think that?
A bunch of well, as more landlords go bust and supply
gets taken off the market like rental supply and everywhere is
pretty tight I think. So this this sounds like a
classic classic alley theory. Doesn't sound like data has been
showing from like, Zillow from and from the like the the Fed
data on this shows that shelter inflation is gonna come down a
lot over the next 12 months. Now maybe it's been baked in.
So I guess shelter inflation is that's true because that's like
a back end calculation around like what mortgage payers, I
don't want to hit their alternative to rent, right?
Yeah, the. Calculation is yeah, the
calculation is a bit of a dicey 1 because it's like it's a
survey of what it's. A survey of homeowners, isn't
it? What What would be willing to
pay for their house or something?
Crazy, Yeah. What would they be willing to
pay to rent their house out instead of having a mortgage?
Right. So it's it's like a weird
calculation. And there are other things that
actually impact that rather than just like house prices.
So yeah, so I I I mean this is a good inflation a year and year
basis market rents just the CPAP inflation growth should I think.
I think the reason why it's going to go really low is
because of shelter like you see these leading indicator which is
the Zillow and the apartment list index.
I think that I think that's the one bright spot in all of this
that that I think but I think oil like you said at the Star is
the is the one risk. So I think it's really a case of
shelter versus oil. I think that the Fed will not
raise rates this, this month. I think that we'll.
Just get a nudge. Sorry.
They'll get a nudge. Nudge.
Tapped out from Biden into election.
Yeah, right. Like, yeah, just keeping where
they are for a bit. Like this is how this all of
this stuff. Works right?
Like, yeah. So rigged?
Exactly. Ally and OSF Love and love Love
talking about how everything's rigged it.
Is everything is great, so don't try to fight the rig, just be
the rig. Look, if you think there's zero,
saying it's 100% rigged is as ridiculous as saying there's
zero political pressure. I I completely agree.
Like, I'm not saying it's not. I just love the way that OSF
smiles whenever you bring up some sort of conspiracy
theories. Like, yeah, believe in that.
I believe in that. I believe in that.
No smoke without fire, 100 degree that that there's gonna
be a lot of pressure and I think finally you made a statement
today being like you know inflation's come down a lot.
Like it's definitely gonna be ratcheting up pressure on on
them to not raise rates. I I don't see a reason why they
need to raise rates given what I think is going to happen,
shelter, shelter inflation in the next few months.
Maybe we should have a bet on shelter inflation.
I think it's going to get destroyed, we.
Can't we can't like the? Bet Trees will move.
We missed you. We missed you for that sort of
insight. Alright, we will move on to next
thing which was what happened in finance which we kind of briefly
touched upon overnight, but finance big headline cutting 30%
of their US staff. The president of Finance US is
also leaving thredtles all over this calling for the end of
finance again and again and again.
This headline hit kind of late last night my times.
And then it kind of it developed from what was just the guy
leaving this head of the US to this thread by by Adam Corcoran.
Which was I've been saying if finance blows up, we'll be fine
in no time. Got a tip that I've not yet been
able to fully verify. But I would lean towards it
being true. And if it's true, it'll note
it'll be a longer more painful ride than I thought and a life
behind bars would be a good outcome for CZ.
I've sent that tip to some journalists and I think I
confirm if it's real and we'll keep folks updated if I get
anything back. But in good faith, had to redact
my will be fine stance and replace it with the we'll be OK.
The memes write themselves at this point the the best replies
that all of his comments is the guy with the the it's the meme
of like, whoa Jack with the bigger, it's like her door, like
hearing. This.
Like I heard this. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You got a lot. You got a lot of push back for
this because this is just like this reminds me, I drew a while
ago the head of why Combinator put out that tweet and which is
like hearing the cryptos go. To 0 Paul Graham Paul Graham
Well, the founder of Like It's. It's it's just as bad.
Saying something like that is almost just as bad as saying
what it was and spreading like random rumors, right?
Like it's just, you know, sorry and you know.
He has a position to push. Like you just know that whatever
he's saying is like insincere because it's just like inverse,
like pumping bags. So she can't take anything he
says seriously anymore, can you? I love the final line, but in
good faith I had to have my redact.
My will be fine songs. When have you been saying we'll
be fine you? Could miss the violence for like
months, months and months and months.
My my view on this is that finance US is basically not
going to exist in the coming year and I think quite a lot of
finance Europe will also shut down.
So that makes sense for a lot of people leaving.
I'm not saying that finance is whiter than white like what the
SEC charged them up is is pretty bad.
But like in the US right now they are only nought .9% of
volumes. Now at the start of this year
they were much larger slice of that they were like 10 to 15%
but ever since that SEC case they basically got shut down
anyway and it's the same for them in the UK, it's the same
for them in in various different European jurisdictions.
They're finding it very difficult.
You can get like a license to operate in the EU at the moment
and every single banking partner of them is basically being told
you can't touch them. So the idea that they are going
to be cutting staff in the US when they do nought .9% of their
volumes and finance has a lot of volumes, it's like 40% of all
the spot volume in the market, only nought .9% of the market
share in the US. So I just think this is a very
weak, a weak, a weak headline to then go on the rampage that Adam
Cochran then went on saying everything's going to zero.
It's like I think Violence US is over.
It's very, very clear. It's been clear for a few months
now. And I think we even remember
like back when SBF actually got got found out, it's because he
basically said that CZ couldn't even go to the US.
Like violence has been restricted in the US for many
many many months. So I don't know, I don't think
you can read into this anything to do.
And I think there's a lot of recency bias.
Like everyone just assumes this is FDX.
If FDX did a Merkel tree proof two weeks ago before 2 weeks
before it went on there, it would have looked like a shit
show, an absolute shit show. Whereas buying a tip on two
weeks ago, you can go check it. One thing I would say that I've
mentioned once in the show already.
Is there is no smoke without fire.
And I think the guy stepping head of US, whatever stepping
down yesterday in isolation is not a big headline.
But in the context of multiple very senior people stepping
down, I think it's important and it might just be that they're
winding some stuff down. It might just be the cost
cutting. Might just be that they're
optimizing. But you know there's no smoke
without fire and I think I think there's something there.
I don't know if it's as bad as people like Adam Cochran are
making. I don't know if it's something
else because I agree there's a fire, but the SEC has already
charged them. It's not like we're waiting to
see what actually happens. The SEC literally came out and
said you did all this really bad shit.
I think why the Goj is doing an investigation and would you
really want to be in like an executive there?
In my opinion, I think they're bracing themselves to pay a
large fine and as a result they are cutting costs basically and
trying to find a way to make sure they fund that and get
ahead of that. I don't think it's that they're
insolvent. You know what I mean?
Like, people can cut costs for lots of different reasons.
And to jump to the conclusion that they're insolvent.
I still haven't really seen any real proof of insolvency or
reasons why. It's just like, oh, they did
this and that's battle. This guy stepped down.
That's about, you know, they're laying off these people.
Like, yeah, I get it, they're costing cuts, but they're like I
said, there's multiple reasons why you would do that.
And insolvency is just one of them.
So until I see some like real numbers or.
Something that's verified that suggests potential insolvency.
I'm not gonna buy it, but you know, these things always come
from rumors and stuff. And it was the same thing with
FTX, right? Just came from rumors and no one
believed it until it was too late.
So you just can't. There's always fat cells in
these things. You can't discount things
entirely. But my hunch is it's just to pay
a fine. But I don't know.
I could be wrong. I think, I think the things that
we are very clearly seeing having at finance is they are
going to face some sort of enforcement action in the US.
the US is gonna make sure violence never operates in the
US. So if you're an executive based
out there or maybe even even in the legal department, like do
you really wanna be involved? There's probably gonna be
criminal charges which are either gonna have to pay a fine
and then you know they can walk away.
Same with like a lot of banks do.
Banks get charged with criminal stuff all the time like money
laundering and they basically pay a huge fine and they walk
away. I don't even know if they have
to claim liability, like claim they did anything wrong in that
case. That's why I think we could be
hanging for. They have a big fine to pay and
also they clearly had some issues with liquidity, like
they've needed to have liquidity and a lot of their banking
partners or their offramps have been shut down.
So they've basically come out like I would say slightly dodgy
ways of off ramping funds which is why you've seen like all
these randomly stable coins come and like it's very unclear about
whether even like whether even coming from or which banking
partner they've done with. They clearly have to go to like
almost the the the Gray or black market to try and get money in
and out for people I think. But that's again, this is very
different than being insolvent. Solvent means like there's a big
hole in its balance sheet, hundreds of billions, probably,
sorry, 10s of billions, probably given half the size of finance.
And I think that's a very different question.
Do you have a view on this Cali or do you want to move on?
I agree with that stuff. No smoke, not fire.
But I also agree with you that that probably just it's not
gonna be as big as FTX and. They're probably the SEC to be
playing for a fine. I also think that there's
probably a lot of pressure on the SEC from people like drug by
guys like BlackRock, etc. To get rid of violence in the US
before they get into it. That's like my base case is why
this is whole thing is happening.
Yeah, I completely agree with that.
There's clearly economic motivation to get them out of
Western markets so that these big Western money managers can
can basically take over. I think I think that's just like
and interestingly we spoke about Kenzel yesterday, he did, he
basically did and this is going to be the Third Point.
We kind of what what's this going, we're even going to touch
up on this. But he basically went in front
of the Senate yesterday called Crypto most Crypto security.
He said there's a lot of fraud, abuse.
I think he was basically directing it at basically
directing it at finance. If I'm honest, like if you be
between the lines, I think he's basically got them square in his
square in his cross tails. So cross tails, sorry, right.
So moving on to the the third thing of the day we are we've
seen even more growth in friend tech.
We kind of touched on it already yesterday.
It's been the difficult thing is that you on a Daily Show you
have to kind of keeping it up. But the growth in friend tech
has been really pretty impressive.
I think Kyla, who runs Lucky Trader, put out a really good
summary tweets. Where was it?
Yeah, three hours ago. It's a GM for friendships, Some
friend tech stats with day over day changes, new users up 64%,
return use is up 12%, daily buy volume up 91%, TVL up 29%.
And the highest key which is raised if you created the
platform is up to nearly eight. You kind of were away from
friend tech for a while, OSF and then you kind of came back.
What's your view on it now that you've come back like and you're
maybe interacting with it a bit more?
I think I'm. I think when something just, you
know volumes and everything and users just die off and maybe
something can just die and that didn't happen, on friend
actually came back pretty strong and I know there's not in the
tbl is a lot higher. The user growth isn't like
crazy, but you know 4000 users isn't anything insane in the
context of crypto. But I think that's something
that will actually increase quite a lot.
Like right now there's nothing going on, there's nothing going
on in really encrypted, there's nothing going on in FTS and
nothing going on in shit coins. So board DJs just need something
to do right now and friend tech seems to be it.
So I personally think the Tvl's gonna go a lot higher.
I think the number of users are gonna go a lot higher.
I think people will make people already have made a lot of money
trading stuff and getting involved.
I think people created made a lot of money from earning
trading fees, and I think people will make a lot more money doing
this. Just in terms of any random
thing that comes into the space, this feels like it has the
characteristics of something that could increase quite
exponentially, and I think that's probably what will happen
over the next few weeks. I think there's gonna be a lot
of money to be made here after that.
I'm not sure. You know, after that there comes
this idea of like, well, if you have loads of users, then the
value of everyone is diluted because there's more people to
trade and bet on. We don't really know what
they're doing with the mechanics of like shares and stuff.
Like we don't. There's no fixed supply and
right now prices are based on like incremental people buying
or selling. So it's not something that I
would like plow in loads of E There's like a long term hold or
anything like that. But I do think there's some good
money to be made in the short term here, either from just like
being a creator and earning trading fees or just buying
other people. And also in terms of like
actually using the app, they've made some fixes.
I think before when I was using it, the chat function didn't
work, and now it does work. It's a really good curative way
to have conversations, which I think are better than Twitter
and my personal group. It's like I just have short
conversations with the people who are asking real things.
If I go in someone else's group, you get to and you know, if you.
The idea I guess is like you buy shares of someone that you're
interested in and you don't usually have regular access to.
You get to chat to them and there's a lot of good alpha in
it as well. Like a lot of the Alpha's like,
you know, this guy just joined friend tech.
Like this is a good buy or market stuff or that kind of
stuff. So I think it's good.
Like it's kind of self, it's self curated, if that makes
sense to where rooms will just like converge to high quality
rooms for high quality people and low quality for low quality
people. So yeah, I think it's good and I
think, I actually think in the next two weeks you're gonna see
that user growth and TVL grow exponentially.
And I think people who are buying the right keys on it will
make a lot of money on it as well.
So can I I just want to touch on the point that you just said,
which is I also think the quality of the conversation is
better, but also the tone of the conversation is better like it's
like less like. Aggressive I would say and a bit
more bit more supportive if that's the right word.
It's just it's just less, I don't know, sensational I tend
to find and people are also a bit more honest because it's
smaller smaller group. But do you think do you think
this because people did move into smaller Discord groups,
smaller Telegram chats to have like better conversations?
Do you think the actual nature of the platform and that that
creators are rewarded? For basically good content or
like being involved, Do you think that's gonna mean it's
gonna be a better app over the medium term just for like,
general discourse? Yeah, I think so.
I really think so. I think look, for it to have
good discourse, you need to like improve the app.
And I think there are lots of improvements that need to occur
for that to happen. But yeah I think it will.
It just the idea of it makes sense.
Like I've I've always we've always had this discussion
between ourselves and and with Tally that like there really
needs to be a curated version of Twitter like cuts out all the
box, cuts out the crap and just get people who have the same
interest in a room together to be able to like connect some
things they're actually interested in with high quality
conversation. Like there's such a demand for
that and it hasn't happened. Like, it hasn't happened today
and now this thing exists. And so kind of like, I guess the
other thing to mention is like, there's obviously going to be a
token at some point. So how much you're using it
right now, you're probably racking up your points to get
this AirDrop. So you're kind of getting paid
to use it as well. But I think that just may, it
forces people to interact, right?
Because even if you're a really big accountant, I'm in some, I
don't know, I remember just like Cribra or like Anonymous and
other people. And these people that maybe
don't respond much on Twitter, but they wanna respond on friend
tech. Because the more you respond,
the more points you might get for the AirDrop, right.
So everyone is incentivized to actually engage on it, which I
think is brilliant for now. We'll see what happens up post
AirDrop. But yeah, if you're not on
friend tech, it's a no brainer to be on it.
I know they get the points AirDrop every week, but yeah,
could be a long time. I think there's some time for
this develop and the more people use it, the more it'll just
become part of the day-to-day, I think, yeah, So yeah, they just
need, they need a web app because most people who do this
full time on their laptops and so it's really annoying to like
go on your phone and then you know.
Yeah, I think I haven't done it, but I think there are ways.
Let me just type it in. I'm pretty sure I saw that.
Would be cool if there is. How to set up friend tech on
desktop in 43 seconds? I think you have to go in
inspect and then run some commands or something like that.
But there is a way to get it on your desktop if you want.
I'm definitely looking at that. But it's great.
There's always, like, if you get into the right rooms, there's
always like, there's always some alpha and who to buy or
whatever. And like, you know, they're like
this guy just joined friends tech.
Like you get and everyone like rushes to like buy them when
they're like below 0.1 and then eventually they go up and then
you flip them. But yeah.
That stuff, I think the the main strategies for people seem to do
this 33 strategy, which is just like you buy mine, I buy yours.
There's some sort of bonus potentially if you do that and
then. It does feel as like as though
the people with the highest value portfolios are the ones
who get maybe even more than the the great so to speak.
So it values people who are doing the TBL.
Where do you think, how high do you think some of these people
can go? Like so if you if you go to the
top right now Racer is the highest and he has a price of 8
E so it's eight ETH by one key of Racer who's the founder?
Of the tech, how high do you think?
What do you think will be like top for one key of racer or one
key of where the top is? It's a strange question to me
because and I'm not funding race event in any means, but I don't,
I don't necessarily think he's like the most valuable person I
would want to talk to. Like I think there are some
people there who I think are really smart in the space and
often have, you know, information before other people.
Race is like the dead, so I feel like he's probably a good.
He's a good bet on, like the overall ecosystem, but I do
think, I do think some people like Kobe, like, what do you
think, how high? Lie.
You know what I mean? How high do you think Kobe gets?
Like like top the top of Kobe. How high do you think that that
gets to you? 38th.
Wow, Cali coming in hot. People are saying.
People are saying this could start to flip a lot of entity
projects. I think.
I think Kobe could be like 50th plus easily.
Like there, there, there. Let me put it this way.
There are so many. There's so much.
There's still so much crypto wealth out there, and there are
a lot of dumb whales who will inevitably come in and buy this.
This is still early. There there's yeah, but there
are still fewer than 4000 users on friend sets at 3.8 K users.
That's tiny in the context of crypto.
So you could start to see like someone like Kobe go much higher
and someone, someone who's like worth thousands of Eve must just
be like, oh, I really want to be in a room with Kobe.
Like, of course I pay 50 for that, 100 Eve for that.
Because for them that's not a big portion of whatever they
have. And it's not like a random a FT
Like you are getting probably getting something for it.
And it gets to a point where once Kobe gets to 58 or 100 Eve,
that kind of becomes the terminal number for his number
of holders, right. So fewer people can buy his keys
at 58 or 100 Eve. Then you'll then the next thing
you know like a year down the line, you're in this room of 200
people, just you and Kobe. Like that's a pretty good room
to be in, right? I'm.
Trying to work out how many, how many, how many people would need
to be in a room to get it to 50 more I think.
But I don't know, like, how much does the price rise every time
you buy something? Like 10%.
This is the whole problem with it.
Like the mechanics are not. It just feels like it's not a
trading platform. It's just like, you know what I
mean? That you can't bid on keys.
They're like, that will change. All those things will.
Be done as the As the chat room
owner, I should be able to like determine how many keys I want
to issue. Then there's everybody knows
what the free source is. And wrap them and then do
whatever how you want to. You could put.
I guess so, but it should be inbuilt the app, like the
experience of the app and I know it will be early on, it will be,
yeah, I think all those things, it'll be a full functional
trading suite of things like you're used to doing.
It's just very, very early right now.
Maybe I should have made that before they launched it, I
think. So I think that's a good way to
do it, like get the users and then.
Someone said to me the other day I think I saw something which is
like quite a detailed bug tweet on it being like there's no way
to update the code, that's it, it's like so it will be a clumsy
that goes up but. It will die because it it like
it's very very difficult to like upgrade it in any way.
That's bonding curve is like for life now like you can't change
anything about it. I I I mean I'm not a deaf so I
don't I just didn't really understand.
But it does feel as though maybe there's less flexibility to
actually change it now. Like it feels like it's maybe
set in stone, but I don't know, maybe there's a B2, maybe we
will just migrate to something different, but.
Yeah, it does it I I would be. I do think it needs improvements
for sure. It needs improvements, mainly on
the trading fees I think are just way too high.
They only make Let me let me Riddle you this.
Would you rather buy a mutant ape at 5 E?
That Would you rather but be in Kobe's?
We were 200 people for 5E. That's.
A good question. I'm definitely buying Kobe.
That's just like not even. That's like a no brainer. 200
people is too big for 5E, I think.
So you think 200 people, Cali? Buys the mutant.
I think I'll take the spread on that.
I'll take the spread on that in a in a year's time.
What spread are you going for? No.
Is it not like if you want to take the other side of the
trade, I'll take the other? Side of that trade all day.
What? About you in one year's time.
Are you lifting him as well or or not?
What was the just didn't catch the last bit of the year?
Yeah. You think that's the rate of
Kobe versus mutinates like you think what are you buying
basically in a year? Kobe.
For sure. Yeah.
So you got double lifted there, Kali.
Well done. In fact, he said a year's time.
So we'll find out. But Kali said Kobe thing will go
to 30 years. So basically Cali is like
extremely. Bullish on these and no, I think
it'll go to 30 years in like in like 2 months time and then just
crash. I feel Kelly just says these
things just to like to have an argument with me, but I swear to
God he'll contradict himself like 2 minutes, no?
I think it's too much time and then there's a really specific
reason why the two things are different.
Ultra inflation is going lower, but Kelly still goes through it
like Nah, I'll see ultra inflation is going and now
they're. Inflation is bottomed.
I'll take both bets. I'll stand behind all of my all
of my statements. OK, I feel like we're just
gonna. We're just trying to get
themselves into arguments. I will.
I think a year might be enough time for you to maybe be run
that bet. But I agree.
That's why I suggested here. Maybe it's a maybe it is a
roller coaster. All right.
So the other thing is that some of the headlines coming out from
Singapore at the moment, there's a lot of people talking on
stage. It's obviously the the event
which which brokers that alongside a bunch of different
people. It's maybe going to go, it
didn't happen, but it's run by Masari.
One of the bigger ones is Arthur Hayes, who is, you know, fairly
well known in the space, Bitmex founder.
Obviously I ended up being a shit show, he he predicted in
Singapore today. The next bull market may start
in early 2024, not only for quicker currencies but also for
other risk risk assets. In addition, he believes that a
I will create opportunities for decentralized storage.
And that file calling has great development space.
He basically also has been saying he thinks the bull runs
already started. He think he thought it started
with when SVP went down. He's been kind of a bull since
then, although he was very bearish up until that point.
What is your view is are we waiting until 2024 for this bull
runs? You think 2024 is the bull and I
know over you have a pretty strong group, but maybe you can
maybe you can articulate that a little bit about why you're so
bullet for 2024. Just think the reason why
markets rally and bull runs start, there's two different
things. One thing is like the human
feeling and psychology and like oh you know, so it's up only and
let's all get in. And the second thing is
obviously the market fundamentals that can create
that environment and we've been in a very obvious and the other
maybe the third thing for at least the start of the ball run
is like something happening that's like unexpected or a
shift in sentiment that people maybe weren't prepared for.
And I think all of those things kind of line up for next year
that we've been in what's basically almost a two year bear
market. I think the top was in October
2021 and people are just so like used to that now there's so much
recent C bias with regard to that.
It was like, you know, people like talking about ETH between
like 1600 and 1700 and 1500. It's like, yeah, sure, but like
ETH was at 5K just two years ago and Bitcoin was at 69 K So like
people are just assuming the range is this narrow range.
But it's not like if you have to think a lot bigger and brighter.
I think most people aren't thinking about that right now.
But as you head into next year, you have so many different
things, so many positive classes that are going for it.
You have the you have Bitcoin halve.
First. The final deadline for the SEC
to approve ETFs or decline ETFs approval reject is 17th of March
20, 2024, so they can do it any day now.
The next deadline is October, but the final deadline they have
to make a decision is is the 17th of March.
So by then we will know. And right now it looks like
they're going to have to approve them in April.
You have Bitcoin halving. What does that mean?
It just means the reward miners get for mining Bitcoin halves.
And the idea is like, oh, now there's less supply of or less
fewer Bitcoin being mined. So I think the reality is the
mechanics of that doesn't have much of an impact, but it's just
this whole narrative thing. It's this idea that everyone's
like, oh, Bitcoin Harding, like we're going to have like the
start, the Super cycle and everything and all that kind of
stuff. And if you look at the history
of crypto since 22,009 or whatever, like Bitcoin does tend
to rally for, you know, a good year to year and a half after
each Bitcoin halving. Like this idea of four year
cycles or even just the idea of cycles are proven things that
happen throughout the history of markets.
And so like bear cycles don't last forever.
Eventually the tide turns and and we've been in a two year,
but we've been one of the longest bear markets ever.
Actually I think in terms of like financial markets, most
bear markets actually last less than a year.
So you have that going. And as we spoke about at the
beginning of of this show, you have the Fed potentially cutting
rates and I think they get into the end.
I think they do. I know there's a lot that's
higher for longer narratives out there.
And it's just funny, it's like now the interest rates are at 5%
on two year whatever now that we've had like all this
inflation. Now suddenly everyone's like, Oh
my God, like interest rates are going to keep going higher.
This is going to be so bad. It's like dude, we've literally
just gone through fucking two years of like inflation going a
lot higher and going a lot lower and the Fed already having
conducted the biggest interest rate hiking cycle since like
70s, whatever like that has happened, that's not the next
thing that's going to happen. It's literally just happened.
The next thing that's going to happen is when are they going to
pause, when are they going to cut.
And the chances are it's probably going to be 2024.
And so that's not the big positive thing for risk assets.
The risk to that is the economy you know getting worse and
recession etcetera. But I think they're in a
position where they can like manage to navigate to us off
land and give an inflation and so low.
They have things to play with right now and and they're doing
that. So it's just really hard for me
to see us not having you know maybe 2024 isn't like the best
year and 2025 is the best year. But I think we're probably in
the start, the very, very beginning of this bull run and I
think we will see more of it to come in 2024.
And I just think, you know, the law of probability and averages
says like you know, now it's time to go the other way.
And there are actual, real, fundamental reasons that show
that we shouldn't, shouldn't, will go that way.
Yeah, interestingly, just to and I'll share my screen, he
actually says that rising interest rates could actually
pump Bitcoin bitcoins price may rise as central banks worldwide
continue typing monetary policies.
I think he's basically saying that central banks are running
out of. Their ability to to deal with
inflation. His view is more that we'll have
some form of like stagflation and in that environment, yeah,
he says hey, since inflation will prove sticky going forward
and basically says that that this whole concept of the US
being so in debt push people into crypto, which I.
It's difficult to say it'll be bullish if inflation comes down
and bullish if inflation says high.
But I think I think what he is saying and what you're saying
can also make sense. Like what we're saying is we're
getting to an environment now where debt is so high that,
yeah, they'll be out to bring inflation down to a certain
level. But but it's still going to like
we're not going to have a period of unbelievable growth I think.
And maybe I'm I'm not. Maybe I'm not.
What other people agree here, but I think we could be in for a
period of like, yeah, we have a soft landing.
We don't then rebound for like amazing growth.
I think we're like stagflation sort of environment, very low
growth probably with sustained inflation for a while.
And in that world, I do agree that I think you still have
pockets of debt which look horrific and people will just
move into grip there, so. I think, I think 2024 could be
the year. I also think 2023 we could
bounce back. I do think we've probably seen
the highs of Bitcoin E but I wouldn't count it out.
Like I really wouldn't. I wouldn't count it out because
people tend to position for 2024 for the next year in November,
December, right. Like that's when you if you're
bullish for next year, you want a position for it now,
especially at these prices. So I, you know, I I'm, I'm
personally thinking we're gonna get a a nice Christmas rally
here. I I think we will.
What? Do you think of our stuff?
What do you think of Kelly? 2024 is the year of the Dragon,
which was my favorite tweet of this morning.
And like ultra bullish, it's the year of the dragon is the animal
of generational wealth or something like that.
I was like. There you go.
Right. That's like, more important than
anything you hear. What the name of the dragon is?
You don't see this? Of course.
Share this with you guys. The guy's name's Long, says it
all right. The stars are the lines.
Yeah, let me share this. 2024 is long. 2024 is the Year of the
Dragon. This is how long the Dragon's
name is long. His fucking name is long.
Yeah. Like, I'm going to buy Maury
from the back of that. Like that's just that's on a
plate. Exactly.
Kind of if you look out in the world the signs are always there
and for me this is this is a sign I I think previously in in
the past bull market of the like past decade basically it was
kind of win win for risk assets like if the economy was doing
great risk assets could rally if the economy was doing shit the
global central banks would just cut rates and markets would go
up. And I think we we're now about
to with particularly with crypto, we're about to reenter a
situation like that where if inflation is high everybody will
go to Bitcoin and crypto because it protects you.
It's the only off ramp from Fiat And if inflation comes down and
you know they can not kind of tighten as much or like start to
loosen then crypto rallies. So kind of like in this win win
matrix for me right now. It fixes this.
You know, everything is everything is good for Bitcoin
and his name is long, with two O's long, extra long.
Yeah, it's that's a levered long that is that's not just a.
Scott Long I. Start.
Having in there. Long if you make, if you make
300%, you're like you haven't done well like because he didn't
have enough leverage on. It you'll pray to long.
Okay, cool. We'll leave it at that.
That was kind of a bullish ending for today.
We will be back again tomorrow. This has been another good show,
I think. Nice spot.
Snappy. We are sponsored this month by
Kraken NFT. Again, go check it out
kraken.com rugradio. Yeah, we will be in our friend
check rooms. If you want to confirm, shout
out. We'll do key holders for Caps or
Steph and Mando as well as everyone who's listened today.
But thank you. Thank you so much and we will
see you tomorrow.