All right, good morning. Good morning, GMGM folks.
It is another beautiful day to have a beautiful day.
Welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour today, one more hour,
episode 168. Today is Tuesday, July 30th, 20.
It is a hot, sunny morning here in Chicago today, folks.
Crypto was feeling hot yesterday morning into our our show and
then things went South of it and not quite as hot here today.
Etho may be feeling kind of hot, at least compared to the rest.
I'm sure we'll get into that here in a bit, folks.
No faroke today. He is traveling back from a
funeral. But we've got Mando on deck to
help us cope with these spooked markets.
It seems like the US has spooked everyone.
Mando, Jim, how you doing? Doing great man, doing great.
Another day in London. It's actually been surprisingly
nice weather since I've been back for once.
Nice. Do you still have another few
days, weeks left in your trip over there?
I'm here until next, until Sunday and then I'm going
straight back to to Portugal for a long time.
I think I'm done travelling for a while.
Yeah, I can understand that. Well, enjoy your your last week
over there. Things feel a little slower here
to to kick off the week. It does feel like the time to
kind of enjoy the last few weeks of summer, but still a good
amount to cover. So we'll break it all down on
today's show. We're gonna start with the
market report. We're gonna talk to the US
government spooking the market by moving some Bitcoin, Seoul
flipping ETH majorly and some key metrics.
The SEC dropping some securities allegations here in the last
day. Blackrock's CIO making some
bullish, some bearish comments in an interview yesterday.
Crypto continuing to get more and more political.
A new Nero winner. It seems like the Nero meme coin
winner has now been cemented. Perhaps a surprising outcome.
We've got this flog token going nuclear and NFT news doodles are
pumping in big red guy news. Some a big new partnership.
So perhaps we'll chat about that.
I think without any any further ado, why don't we get into the
the Mando market report? Who is the?
Man macro. Daddy of the land.
Can you dig it now? We're just going to go back and
forth on market reports, aren't we?
It's like we're covering 90% of the market here just being you.
It feels as though the main thing that happened over the
last 24 hours was just this movement of Bitcoin, which kind
of spooked the market. About 2 billion worth is related
to the Silk Road claims or seizures, let's say.
And I think this was maybe pre announced.
We we saw some, some news around this, that Coinbase is going to
potentially custody this. So there's been some expectation
that this isn't going to be sold, that this is just a
different custodian. That being said, it took the
whole market lower. We saw Bitcoin head down to
about 60 K and hasn't really bounced, to be honest.
We've just cleared out a bunch of open interest Solana head
head below 180, which I think was an interesting move.
And then you saw ETH slightly outperform.
I think the main things that have happened over the last 24
hours there is BIN. The greyscale outflows seemingly
look like they've slowed down slightly.
I think it was a figure below 200 million of outflows
yesterday, which led to a bounce for Solana.
You did have some headlines for the SEC in their Binance
lawsuit. We're probably going to drop
some of the securities claims of which Solana was one of a few
different securities there. So people getting relatively
bullish, bullish around that. But we've basically seen a
reversal if we bring up the sole each chart.
I think that it hit like a trip that was right on all time high
and it just bounced from that all time high.
I don't know if you can do it on there.
Maybe you have to do it on my deck screen or something solely
or on trade. Or maybe maybe you have to do it
on trading view actually. But it's, yeah, like if you
bring up this chart and you look back over the last go to full
chart, if you go up slightly, up slightly.
Oh yeah, I see this is good enough.
You see, like it basically bounced off that all that
ceiling level that is hit a few times and has has dipped from
that level. So it looks like a little bit
better over the last 24 hours. Obviously, there's some
expectation that Grace Government might be close to
being done already. They've already gotten rid of
like 25% of their holding. So it's been a been a big, big
move, move lower. So yeah, people are getting, you
see it was around 200, two, 110 million, which is down from 400
to 500 million and then 300 million most of last week.
So that people took positively. You've bounced, I think as soon
as that figure came out and you've kind of just had a bit of
a reversal in the the the Solis chart, which has been kind of a
multi week highs and close to all time highs there.
So that that's been the main macro news.
I'm kind of surprised. I kind of felt like we it was a
decent flush yesterday when we hit 70 K and I thought we would
kind of bounce pretty aggressively just given how
positive the weekend was. But maybe we don't know, maybe
this Bitcoin does get sold, who knows?
Like it still feels like it's people guessing that that that's
what it's around. So maybe some people are in the
know there. Solana being a blow 180.
I think people obviously got Super Bowls out when it was at
195 where it is. It's probably a good good that
it cleaned out some of these aggressive longs.
I think the CME open interest or actually global open interest on
Bitcoin was the highest level ever yesterday.
So when you have a setup like that, it kind of feels like we
probably need a flush before we even attempt to to go to all
time highs. We have a.
Big week. Sorry, maybe just to jump in
real quick, what was throwing me off?
So I understand like the US government move, you know,
spooked some folks even though it's unclear if they're actually
going to sell it. But then there was also inflows
yesterday. So like I bet had 200 million.
So I guess maybe it's the the debt, the delta neutral trade in
in action. But like that's what really
surprised me when I saw like the net 125 million in inflow into
the ETS and we still, you know, fell 5%.
Yeah, I mean, it wasn't the biggest inflow ever.
I feel as though short term moves in Bitcoin don't really
pay attention to daily inflows too much.
It's more like over medium term. I think we are set up to hit to
go close to that 71 to 72 K area.
I think we probably needed this to flush this out a little bit,
people to be a little bit scared.
Again, you don't just hit all the time.
I think you need a little bit of pain right beforehand.
So I think this is a good setup. It'll probably happen suddenly
when people aren't expecting it. It has been a big week or is
going to be a big week for macro.
This week we have three different major central banks
deciding on policy, BOJ, Bank of England and then the Fed.
And then you have you have non farm payrolls, you have a bunch
of tech earnings. You had EUR and GDP today.
Like definitely a big week for macro of which I'm sure people
make all, you know, make huge, huge claims that we're going to
absolutely tank or we're going to absolutely rip on the back of
them. I think just expect some
volatility this week on the back of how many different headlines
we're probably we're probably going to get.
Yeah, it's going to be roller coaster.
We've got FOMC plus July rate cut decisions plus whatever
Powell's going to say tomorrow and Coinbase earnings too on
Thursday after close. So that's going to be an
interesting one to, to see how they're doing.
You know, I think one of the, the interesting headlines for
me. So, so BlackRock, let me try to
see if I can pull this up. They, they had the CIO was
giving this interview to, to Bloomberg and they, they
mentioned a couple different things.
So one, they said they're expecting to see allocation of
crypto ETFs into model portfolios using their words by
the end of this year, which I thought was, you know, a bullish
signal that that yes, the, the bankers are really going to
start selling this. But then on the other side, they
said no, but it's not going to be Solana.
So they said basically they don't see a Solana ETF coming in
in this year or, or, or even that that closely.
So I thought that was an interesting idea.
I, I think they've said this before, though.
I think if some of the other ETF providers have said this, you
remember we have to put this into context.
Solana is 3% of the market, 3.6% of the market.
The if they just got the ETF's over the line and we're already
seeing kind of mixed responses on the back of that, then FOMO
into a 3% asset seems maybe a bit much.
I think they'll probably wait and see how ETH goes.
No one's no one's like desperate to bring out a Solana ETFI.
Think maybe one of the more of the fringe people.
It's probably why they didn't follow.
Who was it FANAC or 21 shares that did the Solana ETF?
You Vanek maybe broke it, yeah. Yeah, like they aren't BlackRock
and they maybe because backwards just didn't see the point.
You know, it's like we don't need to go after 3% of this
market right now. We're just focusing on on Ethan
and Bitcoin. So I think part of it's that
like the incentives just aren't there.
I don't know if it's and obviously the regulatory clarity
isn't there either. I think it's maybe slightly
improving, but it's definitely not there for Solana yet.
It's not like, oh, this is definitely a commodity.
The SEC has definitely not come out and said anything like that.
So I think, you know, we're maybe just not there yet.
I do think Solana ETF probably happens with a new with a like
if Trump gets in potentially I maybe if the Democrats really
changed their tune. So interestingly, there was some
talk about the fact that one of the the current VP picks is
pretty anti crypto potentially. So I don't, I don't know.
I don't really know what the, the policy of the Democrats will
be going forward. It does feel like Kamala wants
to court them a little bit more, but I will it be enough to get a
salon ETF and kind of widespread crypto regulation may be a bit
too far. Yeah, I, I, I saw that, that
there was some Dems who really want Kamala to go to a crypto
conference and they're actually looking at the, the upcoming
blockwork 1 blockworks one as one to speak.
So that'll be interesting. Of course, like if the US sells
any of this Bitcoin, I think it's going to be hard to, it's
going to be a blow to the, the Democrat crypto 'cause I think
that much is just pretty obvious at this point.
I think we saw the backlash on the timeline yesterday just just
from them moving it and just how, you know, hyper partisan
and political that this is all the calm, you know, without
diving, you know, into that. I don't think we need to.
Another piece of news from yesterday that jumped out to me
was the the Solana fee action. So it's a bread guy reported on
this. Let me see if I can pull up his
tweet here one second, but basically he's calling it the
Triple Crown that Solana locked in that the Triple Crown for 24
hour fees flipped E. So they won it on by on the
chain level. They won it on the decks level
and then also like a distinctive level.
So Solana flipped Ethan fees. We saw Gito flipped Lido and
then Radium flipped Uniswap. And then this also came on the
same day that pumped up font LED all protocols in revenue that
they brought in 816,000 on the day.
I was taking a look at their numbers.
And if you look at the, the chart on D5 Llama at least, I
mean, they're basically averaging $1,000,000 in revenue
per day. They're annualized at 315
million in revenue on a yearly basis right now, which makes
them, I mean, they're, they're a billion dollar protocol at this
point, right? Like just putting any type of
valuation math multiple on top of that.
So are are they the, are they they the clear winner in any
reaction to you? And we, we talked about this and
you, you've said, man, now that, that Solana is does seem
undervalued compared to ETA, you know, 20% the market cap.
But we just, it just keeps getting slammed in front of us
in our face on, on a daily basis right now.
Yeah. I think that the main arguments
against that were that the total economic value including all the
L twos of Solana of ETH were still comfortably above Solana
and that you were starting to and obviously the TVR was much
higher. What you started to see actually
is Solana flip ETH on the L1 and combined with all the L twos.
And I think that's something to really start paying attention to
now. I think the main, the main thing
to note here, like objectively is that for me, Solana, the
tokenomics and inflation are always a factor.
It's, it's less like gold than Bitcoin for sure, and less like
gold than ETH. You know, like the ETH is
inflationary at around 1 to 2% at the moment.
Solana is inflationary, I think close to 6 to 7%.
Now that's going to come down with time, but there is still
quite a lot of inflation at Solana.
So it's something to be aware of.
And also we obviously just went through FDX selling all these
claims to BCS. There will be some supply that
comes on the back of that too. Like the fully diluted market
cap of of Solana is about 20 to 25% higher than its current
market cap. And with ETH, it's all fully
diluted at this stage, even though the Ethereum Foundation
regularly dumps. But it's, those are the two
things I think to to be aware of.
I think Solana dominance, which is at 3.6%, I think it can go to
5 to 6%. I'm not saying it can go to 10
or, or flip ether cycle, but I think pretty comfortably could
go higher. I think, I don't know what Ether
dominance is right now, probably probably around 16%.
But could I see a world where Solana goes up to to six, let's
say from 5:00 to 6:00 and ETH comes down to 12 to 13 to 13 to
14, something like that? Yeah, I think that's pretty
comfortable. And that doesn't make me mean
I'm like overly bearish. I'm talking about dominance
here. I just think that the fastest
horse right now is in. I still think ETH can go a lot
can go higher. I think it has a good narrative
around the ETF and also some of the institutional adoption.
But yeah, my, my, my view is just that it's a very strong
horses cycle, but it's not, I don't think it's ready to flip
the heath, let's put it that way.
Yeah, I think that's a fair take it.
It may need to get to 5% dominance to, to really get the
ETF approval pushed through or to, to get enough demand for
some of these players to to want to launch it.
And I mean, I think we're seeing it like there's demand for the
ETF. It's not like huge by by any
means. So I think they're going to want
to see that play out a little bit as well before we really
just start rallying around the this this Seoul ETF narrative,
though perhaps a little bit more likely.
We didn't the SEC news from yesterday, not huge that they're
not dropping their case. They're not dropping the fact
that Seoul and ADA and MATIC are securities, but they're they're
effectively tabling it. They're saying it does not need
to be ruled on as a part of their case against finance right
now. So a little bit of a kick in the
can down the the road. So not not a full celebration.
Still some positive news. I think the the other stories.
I think maybe if we want to get into memes and then it Tees a
little bit here. Mandel, if that works for you,
for sure, let's. Do it.
We found that the the winner in the the The Great Nero race and
it looks to have been a surprise horse like I I would not have
had this on my bingo card, but it looks like it was the ETH doc
pun intended. Who's going to be winning the
the the Nero race? It is now trying to get the the
charts shared for those in the in the YouTube.
It's at 66 million market cap. It's up 360% on the day.
Like arguably one of the the best looking meme charts out
there. Tough personal story.
Had a buddy share this, yeah, this one specifically with me at
5 million on Sunday as just like, Nah, this Nero, this Nero
situation is way too messy. I'm just going to, you know,
stay away. And I got beaten up a little bit
last week chasing some stuff and it's up 13 X from there.
And if you want, if you take a look at the, the Solano leader,
certainly the Solano ones are still catching a ton of action,
but the, the numbers look much worse.
So we, we've got one of them. We saw, I still saw over 100
million between the top two dogs, the top two Nero coins
yesterday. So one's at 45,000,001's at at
six million, you know, both down about 30 and 50%.
So it seems like those two are, are going the wrong way, perhaps
cannibalizing themselves a little bit while the, the ETH
one is looking to run. I was chatting with tabs a
little bit ahead of the show and we're we're wondering is, is it
because like the the ETH meme landscape is just like it feels
so wide open right now, like you've got Pepe mog and after
that, like it's it's so light, like there's turbo up there, but
you don't really hear a lot about that.
Pepe coin is kind of its own thing.
Trump, even despite, you know, all the pro crypto stuff that
that token is down only it's it's at 2:30.
You've got a mix of AI coins. We might have to start chatting
about this AI basket, which is starting to catch a little bit
of life, but but broadly there's just nothing else top and 1/2.
Yeah, I think, I think it's a really good, really good point.
Me and Ivy were talking about it even last week, just that
they're just ETH holders. They're also Austin, these have
much lower holders per per coin and they're often like later
stage. So like Morgan Pepe just feel
like far more developed in terms of culture and there's less,
there's less temptation, I think each day to just move into
another coin. I think that's a really, really
important thing. There's something to be said
about Solana is that to even be high-priced on on.
So like if you're a holder there of a Solana meme coin who's got,
you know, let's say a crazy bag, let's say like over $1,000,000
of any of these coins. It is so tempting on a daily
basis when you're sitting there in front of a casino screen,
essentially not to just be like, Hey, I'm going to go buy the new
casino coin. You know, like it's just, it is
so unbelievably tempting. And I think that's, it's, it's
very, very tough to, I mean, I even know it with Epic, like
it's really tough to maintain attention in this space.
You kind of rest in the end of building a cult over a / a
medium to long time. And I think that's something
that hopefully I think we, we managed about Epic, but is also,
you know, as a coin goes towards 100 million, that's just another
coin each week that you feel that you should rotate into.
Even more so than like NFTS in their heyday, like the ease that
you can just get out of your your huge bag and move into
something else. Just, it's just a continual
casino. Now that guy Murad has been
coming out and saying, you know, own cults for a longer period,
have a longer term horizon. I think there's been a bit of a
push towards that. But then, you know, I still
think there's a massive, massive community of people that are
just here every single day trying to move to the new point.
So, yeah, we had all the, all the, the different Nero coins.
It doesn't surprise me that that Eve maybe sees a better one.
I, I think no one really wins in that Nero game.
My, my one's opinion is that they probably all don't do as
well. But there's something to be said
there independently that that Solano memes are, are incredibly
tough to to keep going. You've got I I think you do have
to bet on Colts over a medium term.
A bit more here, but it's still still have hairy, hairy moves.
I think it's one of these. I would agree.
I think it's just hard to define like cults and and still pick
the right ones. And like, can you form a cult on
a weekly basis? And are are there enough
separate cohorts in this launch wrenches to actually form like
15 different cults? Because it feels like we're
getting to the levels. Like I mean Murad alone has got
like 7 or something cults on his list and then if you add any
more to that, so now we're talking about 15 different
cults. It doesn't necessarily feel like
we've got that many different groups.
Well, I think this SCF thing is kind of like try to speedrun it
with this kind of religious concept around it, right?
Like we've got like actually got a church going.
But I think there's something to be said about, you know, Giga
didn't move until Giga was I think it was formed in January.
I think like Punky similar was was old, like coins which are
older potentially and not just like this week's coin, but are
still lower priced, I think are the ones that he kind of moved
into. If you go down his list, a lot
of them were kind of five months old rather than rather than like
this month. So the idea that you're forming
a cult, I agree in a week, I think is quite tough.
How many coins really run to 100 million these days?
Something to something to note. Like you sometimes see it, but
the generally when they go above 100 million and then you that
doesn't really happen. The ones that go above 100
million are generally been older memes that have suddenly caught
a bit. So even even on this SCF thing,
which I think has been a bit more unique than others like
this should be one of the few that's kind of space speed run
to 100 and like cat there normally it takes a long time.
Yeah, I mapped out all the memes over 100 million on Solana just
like a week, week and a half ago.
I think there's like there's like 12 to 15.
So like it's it's a big deal to get to that threshold.
It's not easy to do it. SCF has basically gotten there.
I mean, it looks like they they basically wicked above it
already here in their first week, 1st 10 days.
I think that the concern is like, is it that it happened too
fast? And then all the folks who are
looking at their screen now have massive gains And clearly they
do because you know, you could have been buying this AT100X
lower just just a week ago. So it makes these it makes these
fast runners harder to enter, at least for me.
I think my other like somewhat concern is like every time we
see, you know, a new token like this, run it, it feels more and
more like it's dampening the other tokens.
So like if we looked back at the next board, like everything else
is red, like just about everything.
So like we, we're in the Nero aftermath where Nero sucked the
tone of liquidity and all the the previous leaders all fell 10
to 15%. Now they're all down 5 to 10%
more and it's just like, it makes me wonder like are are we
on like the, the, the part of the cycle where the roller
coaster loops are are smaller and smaller all the way down.
I don't want to believe that, but some of this action is like
it's kind of pointed that way. I think it's a really good point
and I think it's something to be aware of.
Like Pun dot Fun making $1,000,000 of revenue, you know,
that's like Open C making $1,000,000 of revenue.
You know, there'll be questions afterwards being like, wow, God,
that sucks so much liquidity out of the system.
You know, $1,000,000 of revenue a day.
That's I don't think they're pumping it back into meme coins.
And I think the other thing is with someone like me, Nero, when
you see these huge volume, huge volume memes that actually don't
really do that much or like they don't maintain a high value,
what you've really seen there is like a bunch of people lose
money to MEV bots. So I think actually over the
last few days, we've seen a massive destruction of of like
value across MEV bots and also pumped off fun obviously, just
like continually making its money.
But Nero, I think it's been really, really bad for the
salon. I mean, coin space probably in
general because there's a lot of net losses there.
A lot of these volume figures are massively in place at the
moment because of yeah, there's so much MEV to be made.
Yeah, it's the the the MEV winners, it's dev winners.
They got the folks launching these coins and selling early
pump fun and it's a lot. So now we, we need, you need the
leaders to, to really level up to, to create the wealth effect
to support this again. And, and we'll, we'll see if
that could happen. Well, yeah, I think obviously,
you know, bitcoins still doing OK and you know, in terms of the
global crypto market cap, we're we're still doing OK.
I still think that people, you know, people find money to spend
at casinos. There's like a hundreds of
billions, if not over a trillion dollars being spent at casinos
each each year. I still think that people come
in here to to gamble. So I'm not necessarily like
super bearish on that money, like completely leaving.
I think there will always be new funds that come in and play
these people that used to start on the weekend when the whole
Nero thing broke. The people paying attention to
this are not really even paying attention to Bitcoin.
They're just coming in here to like spend some money and and
roll the dice at the casino. So I think there will always be
new funds that come in to actually play with these with
these tools. Oh, I think you may be frozen,
dude, just me.
Don't worry, we can keep going. Let's keep that.
He's talking. I can hear him on my phone.
So he's just he's just going on the space by himself.
And I think I'm by my by myself on the YouTube.
So we're existing in two universes at the moment.
Oh yeah. Oh.
Yeah, sorry about that guys. I kept the the space going so
hopefully folks in the space were were able to to hear me
rambling about the flog token. UP23X Mando.
Sorry I I missed your last comments there.
No, don't worry. Yeah.
I think we we kind of went through the the meme
conversation. I, I briefly touched on flog on
the space. It was just the other like wild
runner on the day. I think what was lastly of note
to me was just a couple of NMT topics before we round things
out. So we had Julian Hogan on the
show yesterday. It is hard to listen to him and
not get fired up about what doodles are are building.
And we saw some nice action in the market yesterday.
So those doodles NFTS up 15% one of the top movers, but hey,
another top mover on the day close to home.
Those rec guys up 30 on the day after we saw a strategic
partnership with HLV known for their assistance with teams in,
in launching fungible tokens. So we, there's probably not a
whole lot we can we, we can say, but some some big news
yesterday. I'm not sure if there's any
other any other context or info. No, not really.
I think it's you know, we, we obviously did the equity gifts
to everyone. So it sets us up correctly there
and obviously it's wrecked brands.
So there's going to be a few different products starting with
a drink that we, we're going to launch and yeah, they'll, we'll
see which other things can be used to help bond that
interaction. Exciting times and it's going to
make tomorrow's roll bit spins a bit more exciting as well.
The stakes are are going to be raised.
Yeah, they're suddenly higher now.
So we're going to be looking forward to that folks.
We've we've got 2, two of the next three shows are going to be
featuring Robot Spin. So we'll have those on tomorrow.
We'll have those on Friday as well.
Those are most of my topics. Just quickly in the prediction
market streets. I think the thing to watch Nate
Silver now the advisor for Polymarket, he is releasing his
first post Kamala candidate election model later today.
So I do think that when he releases that model, it will
likely impact the primary election market.
So that's going to be one to watch here later later today.
So so check that out. I just actually subscribed to
his sub stack in the past week. I think he might get early
access to those. So I think they.
Integrated. They've integrated it with sub
stack now. I saw that today.
Yeah, that's big news. So you can drop that the actual
bets directly into the the newsletter.
So curious if if he'll be he'll be doing that.
Of of note, the Poly market primary election market is off.
Off is the wrong word. It is trading differently the
other markets. So it was still at like Trump
60% to comma 38% this morning. The predicted market's at like
5450. I think another one is closer.
I think Tom was up over 40. So it's going to be interesting
to see if that one does shift after this model.
So, so perhaps we'll be chatting about that on tomorrow's show.
But anyway, I think we went around the horn and covered most
of the items on my list. Was there anything else on your
side here for this morning? No, I think we're in a good
spot, dude. Yeah, awesome.
Well, thanks for joining us, folks who joined the shows and
the streams. Thank you for joining us.
Have a fantastic Tuesday. We will see you all tomorrow.
Tabs take it away.