Good morning, Good morning everyone, GM, GM and welcome to
another episode of Omo Hour Day. Day is Monday, April. 7th.
Point .5 post We thought we thought it might be Black
Monday. We had Black Thursday and Black
Friday and then Black Sunday night.
It was setting us up for a rough start to the week.
Global markets crashing, US equities hitting bear market
territory. Crypto was following.
But now Trump's telling everyone don't be panicking and and
markets are starting to respond. The question is, can we trust
him or should we be panicking? We're going to break it all down
on today's show. No Faroque.
He is traveling today, but we've got Mando in the house.
Mando, Jim, how are you holding up?
I'm holding up OK. Yeah, I'm holding up OK.
I've actually traded pretty well the last few days, so I've been
relatively happy with how I did it.
But yeah, we're luckily we we started bouncing as soon as the
show went live. Otherwise it was looking to be a
very stressed opening day the week for us.
We can get into all that. But yeah.
We will the tone of the show quite different starting at 10
AM versus how do we start at 9:30.
Yes, so very different. You were tuning into a very
different episode of FOMO Hour, folks.
It is going to be a tighter show here this morning, but we are
going to talk everything about these markets.
Stocks are falling Sunday night. It looks like they're starting
to rebound despite Asia markets having I think one of their
worst days of all time. We had folks crashing down the
timeline, including Bill Ackman, JP Morgan raising their
recession odds, Stanley Druckenmill are actually coming
out and defending tariffs to a degree.
And then Trump has started to respond more and more here
yesterday and now this morning. So we're going to talk about
that cryptos potential relative strength.
Does anything look like a buy or are we still selling all of the
pumps and more? So that's what we're going to
talk about on today's show. Before we dive in, shout out to
our partner starting with Galaxis.
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independence, trusted by icons like Donald Trump, Steve Aoki,
Mike Tyson and the NBA, shaping together the future of
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checkout. So if you want to learn more,
well at wallet connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of what's
next. We love our partners as always.
Now, Mando, if you're ready, let's get right into it.
Can you dig it? GM everyone so yeah, we had a
pretty wild weekend to be honest.
Crypto have been outperforming for a little bit.
Obviously on Friday it was and then what you started to see on
Friday was that everyone was like, oh, you know, we've had
this good correlation to gold, even gold side to sell off.
So there was kind of this oh God, everything's about to nuke
sort of market here and crypto seemingly got caught up in that
as well. So you saw gold, but go down to
3K from where was it about 3103 thousand 200 nearly and you saw
global stock. There was just I think there was
an expectation on Friday that maybe deals would get done over
the weekend. You know, maybe there'll be a
deal done with the UK, with Canada, with Japan, like maybe,
maybe they'd be light at the end of the tunnel for these sort of
deals. And it, it just didn't seem to
be the case. In in fact, Trump's comment made
some comments last night, which is like Europe owes the US
reparations for previous trade deficits.
And it felt like they were maybe even drifting apart this
morning. You've seen a slight softing
from certain points. So you saw Europe said, hey,
we're actually going to delay our retaliatory, retaliatory
tariffs until later this month. And then they said, and leave
the door open maybe for a deal to be done.
You saw that Japan's Prime Minister said they'd had a call
with the US and maybe that could lead to a deal.
We saw that, yeah, just a general like slight, slight
softening or or at least indication that that that that
could still be a route open for deals, not really from Trump,
but from other people, let's say.
And some indications, you know, from people in the
administration that countries are reaching out.
We had the figure that fifty countries had reached out for
deals. And I think everyone just felt
slightly better about the market after that.
This morning. We were selling off and then
there was there was a headline first thing, which was a little
bit of a bounce, which is probably the bottom looking back
at it, which is that the Fed is holding a meeting today that is
actually a fairly standard meeting for them.
So I wouldn't read too much into it, although they have done
special meetings like that around COVID and also around the
the SSVPSVB collapse, you know, two years ago.
It doesn't like that what's happening today, but undeniably,
I'm sure they'll be talking about what's going on in the
stock market. And broadly this, this was a up
until now, like rest of world stocks have broadly up
outperformed U.S. stocks. Today was the come of the day
that that changed. So Chinese stocks closed down
13%. In Hong Kong, DAX was down 10%.
Various different European stock indexes were down 5 to 10%.
It was it was definitely a bloodbath kind of across the
board. And I think people were
definitely feeling it, definitely feeling it this
morning. And I'm wondering how, how it's
going to get fixed. You did see now what I've been
saying is that the response to this has to be stimulus.
And I think that's what we're going to see.
I think we're going to see already China said we're going
to do some sort of stimulus, extra stimulus package this
morning. And so this idea that global
liquidity will go higher feels likely to me.
And and we're going to see money printing to kind of help deal
with the help deal with the issues.
So yeah, I think I think I'm not feeling as bad about stuff this
morning. At least I can see we can have a
relief rally. I don't think, I don't think
we're out of the woods by any means like Trump.
Trump is still pointing to the idea that, you know, there
should be no trade deficits between countries.
And I feel like his base is also kind of like they're kind of
behind him on this. Like, weirdly, this is the story
has kind of changed to lowering tariffs to like this being a way
to like redistribute wealth and actually feels like that's like
empowering the Trump base. So I don't necessarily think
that he I've been thinking a lot about why this is happening.
Yeah. And for me, it feels as though
there's been an like a kind of implicit decision that one of
the only ways to improve income inequality in the US is to try
and basically cut trade deficits with external countries rather
than tax on which. And that's kind of where we're
at. Yeah.
And I think that's fairly spot on.
And I mean some more thought. I've spent most of the weekend
thinking about this and like, what are the scenarios from
here? And I don't think there's really
any scenario where Trump just like totally backs down and
reverses course. I think perhaps the optimistic
outcome is he truly was using these absurd numbers as
negotiation tactic and tries to you know, when, when the
negotiations here and get down to 10 percent, 20% more somewhat
more reasonable level, it's still going to have an impact.
But I mean, I think even that's a question, right I.
I'm not sure if he wants to do that.
I've been like, I've been debating this a little bit,
like, and I use Vietnam because it's a good example.
But like the general thesis seems to be that like, let's say
there's a group of people that live in the countryside and a
group of people that live in a big mega city like New York,
right? And the basis of this is that do
you think, do you think there should be 0 trade balance
between those two people? It seems natural that like the
country would import more than exports back to the countryside,
let's say, or, or where there's cheaper labour.
Now the Trump, how this is working is basically saying
there should be no trade deficit between the two of them.
If there is, we're going to tax you.
And that puts a country like Vietnam, like it can't, it can't
import enough to, to, to fix that sort of an issue.
But, and there seems to be like expectation that actually we
kind of want to do some of the stuff that's going on in the
countryside, in the big mega city like New York, like, hey,
actually we want to do that too. And I think that's that's kind
of what's going on here. It's more like they want to
actually redistribute the wealth inside the USA little bit more.
And that is quite a popular thing with Trump, with Trump's
base and with a lot of people. And at other times that's tried
to happen, it's like we're going to we're going to basically tax
the wealthy. And that is seen as kind of like
a kind of at odds with the American dream.
I I would say, or like it's seen as like, you know, it goes in
against incentives. But this way they're basically
you just tax anyone who import who has a trade deficit with the
US. Everyone doesn't necessarily do
better in that scenario. Like everyone can actually do a
little bit worse in that scenario.
But the US is the strongest economy by far, best, best
demographics, biggest, biggest military, like easily has the
most firepower to deal with this.
So it's kind of one of these worlds where I think the the bet
here is the US will do better than every other country if this
happens. Like I would say global wealth
may come down in that world, but you also get a situation where
the US redistributes it's wealth in a certain way.
So and I think that's kind of what Maga's changing.
It's, well, not really changing, but like they're fine with that.
So I don't think Trump's backing down on this.
I think this is kind of like, I think he kind of wants this.
Yeah, Yeah. I mean, he's, he said as much.
I mean, he, he came out and said our intention was not to crash
markets, but also that sometimes you got to take medicine.
And like the, they've been saying, there could be some
pain. I've, I've had, I'm in law.
People have been trying to digest this all the, over the
weekend. Some are saying like, at what
point would we see civil unrest perhaps in the US?
But I think you kind of nailed that.
I, I don't know that we are very close to that scenario at all,
because the, the, the people most disproportionately impacted
are the wealthiest, right? And and they're not be the ones
who who take to the streets and I don't think most most people
are are are they're not impacted yet.
I think it's it's still to be seen.
Give me give me one quick second, but.
Yeah, I, I think that's basically what's going on.
I, I don't think, I think he might win, win people over this
way. It's definitely an America First
policy and it does affect multinational corporations quite
badly. But again, like a lot of people
in the US don't like multinational corporations.
So, and there's all other attempts to kind of solve income
inequality are generally seen as they, they just, they're not as
popular. It, it's, it's, it's, it's a
weird notion, but like taxing the rich is far less popular
than taxing, taxing foreign countries.
And even though the tax on foreign countries can reduce
your everyone's economic wealth, including the US more, the
concept is, is that that is one of the best ways potentially to
reduce income inequality in, in the US.
And I see it, you know, like I see it from more right wing
commentators that like, this is the narrative.
Suddenly it's like, hey, we've actually fixed income inequality
more than like the left has for like 50 years here, right.
And that's something that's actually a little bit popular.
So I, I kind of feel as though this can continue.
And I don't think he's in a rush to make deals.
Yeah. I think, but what's?
Bitcoin and crypto, I think it's as I've said before, I think
this is going to lead to massive stimulus, which is already
happening. And I think that there's
potentially also an erosion of dollar power in this world, or
at least like what all Fiat currency power I feel can be
slightly diminished here. Like if free trade is diminished
in this world, then then you can imagine that, yeah, like few
people need dollars, few people want to borrow in dollars.
Fewer people want to do that in, in various different countries.
If that gets diminished. So I'm, yeah, I, I, I think, I
think, I think crypto can still do well.
I, I really do. I was surprised that they traded
badly this weekend, but you have to remember it's the most risk
on asset that is 24/7. So people go in and they're
like, need to short it on a on a weekend, you know?
This is sorry, I I literally exclaimed when I when I went
back to the crypto board folks, because this is not quite the
rebound Bitcoin back over 80 K. It was it went sub 76 on the
market open just 45 minutes ago and now like the weekly numbers,
we just had the one of the worst three days stretches.
Now, of course, stocks are rebounding.
The S&P flips green as well, but in U.S. equity history and
bitcoins down 3 1/2 percent on the week.
I think that's pretty, that's, that's a pretty strong signal
and, and Sailor didn't buy. He came out and said it.
What a great week for Sailor not to have bought.
I guess perhaps for our confidence, because I think
there was, maybe we'll find out if GameStop was the one buying
Friday. I think Friday was where it
really felt like there was a strong bid when it was Friday
afternoon and equities kept falling off a Cliff and then
Bitcoin was holding that 83K level.
And I think a lot of folks thought it was either strategy
or or GameStop, but. I just don't think we're like,
I'll be very don't confuse volatility with we're so back or
it's so over. I think we're just in a period
of very heightened, like even now you have like, Oh my God,
we're going, we're so back. Just be aware that this is a
market that is insanely volatile.
Like I, I said it over before we went live, I was like, it just
feels like we're about to bounce just because like, it's not that
any good news had really come out.
It's not like Trump suddenly changed his opinion.
It's just like everyone just feels like they're, they're too
short. So no, in that world, like
there's extremes of positions right now and you can gap up 10%
and there'd be no news, literally nothing.
So I feel like that's also the world we're in.
So I, I think Bitcoin can continue to outperform global
stocks, everything here, but it had a bad weekend and it
sometimes does. Do you remember like when all
the Middle Eastern wars were happening or like flare ups were
happening? It was just like, why is Bitcoin
the thing? There was a little bit of that
this weekend where it was just like, right, we're just going to
pummel Bitcoin into the US stock market open because everyone's
freaking out and that that, but this is a good sign.
The fact that it held that 7676 K level which is hit a few times
again is a good sign. Definitely a good.
Sign I'm curious if you so I've seen more and more of the the
bear takes that we would effectively erase the entire
Trump pump on Bitcoin basically taking us back to like 66 K.
Do you have any targets? On Bitcoin.
On Bitcoin, again any lower targets that you think are
possible or the levels that you feel the seem seem safer or
curious if if that's how you're looking at it or?
Feels like it's a really good sign that it hit that level
again. 76 Ki think there'll be a lot of by walls now that 76K
level. I don't think we're out of I
don't think we're out of the woods though.
Like this feels like a a relief rally rather than like, oh,
something's going to come and save us.
You know what I mean? I think a lot of people are just
so used to the COVID situation where it's just like, we're
going to turn on the taps, something fundamentally change.
We're going to save everyone. No one's coming to save this
market here. It doesn't feel like it.
We've just spoken about how Trump's incentives are maybe
even to continue this. And we've just spoken about and
the Fed basically came out on Friday and said we're not going
to help. So your best bet here, in my
opinion, is the Chinese central bank, potentially Japanese
central bank, potentially European Central Bank, British,
you know, the, the, yeah, the British central central bank.
And potentially then we get a, yeah, we get money printing
from, from them or money printing by another name.
It doesn't feel like the Fed wants to step in here.
And that's been, that has been something that has happened
since 2008 and it hasn't, doesn't look, it looks like
things are going to have to get a lot worse.
And the, the, the thing that's interesting, a lot of people
have been talking about the fact that, oh, he wants to get the 10
year lower. This is the day where the 10
year is higher. It's gone back to 4.1%.
You know, this is going to lead to inflation.
It's not easy for the Fed to come and just cut rates.
Like Trump keeps on talking about that.
But like, it's not easy. Jerome Powell's probably sitting
there going like, I'm going to wait and see.
Like I, I don't want to cut rates if inflation's going to
continue higher. So I would, yeah.
I just be wary of, of thinking the Fed is going to save you.
I think you you got to hope weirdly that that you basically
see money printing coming out of other countries.
I've seen totally two different, totally different schools of
thought. Some were saying that a rate
hike is even on the cards for 2025.
And then you've got like this polling market rate cut market
has five cuts at 15% chance. Now let's see four cuts is up to
20%, three cuts at 20%. So, so folks, I think that's in
line with with. Other markets as well that that
what 4 to 5 are starting to get priced in over the weekend.
I thought I saw, but that's going to continue to be very
volatile. I mean, clearly prices are
incredibly volatile live as we're speaking.
So we were, we were over 80 K. Now we're back at 78 six.
So we're just bouncing all over the board.
I am curious, you said you had a good weekend trading like is any
are are you buying? Are you just scalping?
I know OV came out and shared that he effectively sold an
Autoglyph and bought AI16Z, but. I bought I bought far coin on
Friday, which has probably been my best trade for the weekend.
And then I have just traded around some of the L ones and
time some of these moves relatively well getting in and
out. So that I've been, I've been
definitely more day trading over the last because the swings have
been insane. But like the gap down from
Sunday, I largely avoided. And then I bought just before we
went live and I just told you to OSF like I was like, I think
we're going to bounce here. I've bought a bunch of things.
So I've traded well the last few days for sure.
It's probably one of my best trading periods for the last
three months. Well, you, you love to hear it.
I feel like I've been talking about this maybe too much but
this far coin strength is just like insane to see.
Are we just we're having global market meltdowns?
It's like circuit Breakers are being hit.
Yeah, it's good that it's returned to the common like
Fintwit, right? It's definitely being spoken
about on Fintwit again a lot more, which I think is just
interesting because it was a period where it was like, Oh
yeah, it's over. But now like, it's like, Oh my
God, fart coin is the one thing outperforming the S&P 500.
And that's a great story again, so.
Yeah, these things die not from FUD, but in in silence, like the
you you want the attention factor.
And I mean now, like the mind shares like is quite like is off
the charts like cookies still measuring this and they they
still have fartcoin in the AI bucket, for what that's worth.
But it's it's 30%. Me, me in general, me in general
held up OK here in my opinion. SPX as well had a had a decent
period here. He's back at still at five, 2500
ish. Those two in particular have
held up very well so. Is there, I was thinking about
this a little bit over the weekend.
Like is, is this a sign of like financial nihilism returning to
a degree like, oh, like markets are all fucked there.
There's nothing I can do about it.
I'm just going to go back to the, the the if I can't buy what
considered value assets because they're all going down 5 to 8%
per day. Strong stocks are are doing the
same. Like, why not just fired into
memes? I don't know.
That's just a thought that was crossing my head as I try to
wrap my head around why these these memes are outperforming
and like these these are the top 2 movers of the entire top 100
crypto tokens right now as far coining SPX, so it's pretty
undeniable. Yeah, yeah.
I don't really know. Like it feels like it feels like
those two in particular are just going to be like the ones at
least in the, in the, in the broader meme point space, those
two have been like chosen as the ones that like people want to
own on days like today. So yeah, it's.
I would tend to agree. The.
Question is, does that mean displace?
Are they going to displace other traditional memes or are they
just the new editions? I think one of the questions
here, it's like, where's Mog Mog's green today?
MOG is getting destroyed, yeah. It's 120 million.
Wow. Yeah, Mog's been destroyed.
Like honestly annihilated so. Perhaps there there is a
changing of the guard to a degree here.
I think the other chart that's been absolutely destroyed is 8
Bitcoin. I don't know if you've been
seeing this, but this morning it it it broke point O2.
Is it point O 1/9? It was 52 ETH for one Bitcoin
and I got like where where is the bottom?
Like are we going to see 75 to 100 to one?
Are there scenarios where that happens?
It's just 52 seemed like a far fetched number.
On January 1st it was 27 to 1 and now it's 52 to one.
Try to pull this up. So we're just kind of running
out of words to talk about this at this point in time.
Yeah, Ether is dead. It's over.
I'm sorry guys, I'm not talking about it.
The amount of airtime that it gets on different shows for
this, it's, it's just painful. Like I, I, I talk about this
over all the time, but like, it's, yeah, it's just, it's just
not been a good hold and, and it's under, it's even
underperforming today, right? Underperforming today.
So sad, very sad. It's a tough one.
It's a tough for my beloved punks Bitcoin ratio, which got
whacked in this E down move. The punk floor held even, but
with ETH getting crushed punks back down to 63 K.
So now 20% below Bitcoin more actually right now.
So not not exactly what we what we wanted to see here.
I'll go around the horn. I think that that's a really
good summer on the market, man. Thank you for that.
It was a quiet weekend. I think a couple headlines that
jumped out. One, Tether basically said at
the US is not going to embrace USDT, they're going to launch
AUS friendly stable coin. So I think that's perhaps
various for Circle. And then Circle also is
reportedly, I think this is more tied to some rumors.
It hasn't been like they they haven't come out and said this,
but now they're thinking about delaying their IPO because of
all the effectively because of the FUD from those Coinbase fees
and perhaps trying to get better deals lined up to make some of
those financials look better. So, yeah, I think, I think it's
a tough time, right. You have a period where they're
trying to crash the 10 year, which is basically their
business model. And then and you have crypto in
general not feeling so great. They probably just don't think
they can get that valuation right now.
I don't think if you're if you're own circle, I don't, I
just don't really know why you're trying so desperately to
IPO like you've got this great business, but maybe maybe they
desperately need to get out of the stock.
I don't know. Kind of feels like, you know, do
you see Tether worrying about IPO ING like 4 billion a year
like. Exactly how you.
Yeah, exactly. Do you really like desperately
need to sell equity in your company?
Just just fucking clip the coupon every single year.
Dream I I don't feel sorry for Circle executives that missed
their IPO window. Like if you needed that, then
you need to run your business differently.
I think that's a a flooding goal is it's the question of why do
they do this? Is it because they see their
business model falling apart as Trump administration tries to
bring the, the tenure down, which we'll see if if that's
actually going to pan out for them.
I guess any, any surprises this morning before we wrap things
up? You know, I, I, it seemed like
everything was crashing. We're rebounding.
It felt like interest rate spiking caught people off guard
this morning. So I guess anything that
surprised you or or any final thoughts as we go into the?
Just interest rates. Just pay attention to Bitcoin.
I think that's the main thing like bit Bitcoin to me, I think
it's going to, it's probably going to have another retest
above 80 K here. I, I'm, I'm still not of the
view that something like Solana is necessarily going to be like
a screaming buy for the next couple of weeks.
Like I still think that like Bitcoin, Bitcoin is up again
today. So it's approaching 64%.
I just, I just feel like that's an up only chart, whatever
happens for the next for the next few weeks.
Yeah, I think that that's fair. I did hear choose Rich Nick on
the Nifty show this morning talking about how he feels like
Solana is actually an interesting buy with Bitcoin
here just because he he felt like the downside is somewhat
capped perhaps in like the 20% range.
It's like if you think 80 is a strong floor for Solana and you
can buy it at 100, decent risk reward there just because your
your chance to to have it scout back to 140.
I mean Seoul was 140 a week and a half ago, right?
So you have a chance to catch a bigger move than Bitcoin.
But it's at the same time I'm not personally racing to buy
Solana. Yeah, I, I, I think it's more
like a, this isn't just a Solana thing.
This is like an L1 thing. It's like it feels as though
people are leaving crypto right now and those stories can take a
long time to come back, right. So, and it's not that I don't
think Solana will dominate when they do.
It's just more like it's the same reason why ETH is like not
trading that well. It's there's so much block
space, right. So you've got to hope that like
your, your chain stays relevant in a quiet period.
And Solana, it feels as though a lot of the activity on there was
was more left curve as well. So I don't know.
I really don't know. I think that's fair and also I
think watching ETH not have a successful comeback cycle here,
I think is also perhaps hurt upside of Solana, rightfully or
wrongfully is people saying like this whole next man up, like
there's always going to be a next hot chain and maybe you
aren't meant to hold these beyond their initial, you know,
big cycles. So that that's a real narrative
out there. So I think that's one that, you
know, we'll continue to watch, but we'll see.
Is it going to be turn around Monday, folks?
I don't know, but we're starting to see signs of it.
So it looks like the. White House just has the White
House just denied that they are delaying tariffs.
There was a good time that they might be delaying tariffs, but
they just denied it. So we're back down again.
Yeah, we'll turn around the other way.
So expect more piercing volatility.
I think it is the is the take away.
But folks quicker show here on on Monday.
We will be back with a longer show tomorrow.
That is it. That's going to be our show.
I want to thank our listeners, want to thank our partners as
always want to thank Amanda. We'll be back tomorrow, 10 AM,
10 AM Eastern. Until then, go make it a great
day.