Good morning, Good morning, GMGM, everyone, and welcome to
another episode of Homo Howard. Hey, hey, it's Friday, April
4th. Oh, Arif again is here.
Markets crashed yesterday. Looked like we were starting to
rebound. China slaps a 34% retaliatory
tariff on as markets fall some more.
There's blood across all markets right now.
The question becomes, is the pain over or is it just
beginning and is it finally crypto's chance to shine?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
No, Amanda, but we still have a full house, folks.
We've got Farrok back, we've got Logan.
We've got stats. What a cast for.
It's you first, Jim. How you doing live from
Switzerland? Good morning, Guta Morga, like
they say in the Dutch side of Switzerland, I'm doing good.
Listen, I'm in the home of Ethereum of the Solana
Foundation of Cardano of every single crypto company as we
speak live from Zoog, you know, that's where they're all based.
So maybe I'm going to go have a quick chat with the Ethereum
Foundation about 10 minute walk away from me.
You know my name does say still bullish, you know, still
foolish, that's for sure. You know I wake up every morning
in Europe and the market's pumping.
I am here making Europe great again.
Every single day I woke up here, I saw 20% fart coin candle and
then you guys wake up and somehow managed to to to fuck
shit up. So you know, we're going to have
to have a chat today, but I'm glad to be here.
It feels good and I love it when you intro.
It's like, I like it, love the energy.
Well, I see a 20% candle on fartcoin right now, so maybe
America's is pulling our own weight over there.
Because I called them out, you know, I was like, come on,
America, come. On Well, thank you for your
service, Brogan. Live from Peru, folks, we are
global today. This is a global show.
Hey, yeah. How you doing?
Hey, morning folks, doing well again.
Another beautiful day here in Peru.
A little sweaty after the walk here because it is so hot and
humid, but otherwise can't complain.
I'm trying not to look at the markets really at all when I got
the sun shining, so I'm doing better than I could be.
We love to hear it, folks. Staffs Friend of the Show, Chief
Chart Officer at Meme Land provides great commentary across
markets. Sam, how you doing?
What's up, boys? I, I, I love hanging with
Farouk. You know, he's just got such
good energy. Sometimes you forget it on
crypto Twitter. But like, when you see the dude
real life, you're like, I love this guy and Logan, love you.
Here. Here's actually some alpha, not
alpha. Here's a fact.
I actually would had an alt account on Friendtech, and I was
one of the early buyers of Logan's Key, so I don't think he
ever even knew it. So it's nice to see the guy.
Yeah. Nice.
Old school. Logan's a sleeper, you know?
He's he's. I don't.
Even know what he looks like. This is the first time I
actually know what Logan looks like.
What's up dude? Hello.
Yeah. For real.
Yeah. That's so good, yeah.
I don't think Sam exposing him that he doesn't watch our show.
I don't I, I listen, I'm I'm like a spaces guy.
I'm. Not a YouTube guy I see.
You yeah, all that slide folks. What are we talking about on
today's show, Tara? Forgotten wrecking market,
stocks are down trying to retaliate.
It's crypto falls but rebounds the 10 year sub 4.
California wants an exemption. The job report was good.
We're going to break it all down, talk market impact,
Polymarket recession. Odds are at 56%.
We've betten yes or no on that. We're going to talk meme coins.
There's some strength out there. There's some strength in Alts
Sonic. There's some strength in all the
far coin, tic coin house coin crew right now.
And then we're going to also debrief a little bit from our
interview with Wave Finder yesterday.
Man, that was quite the conversation.
And maybe talk to Sam about his recent punk buy and how he is
feeling about that. Plus maybe what meme land is
cooking as well. Before we dive in, shout out to
our partners starting with Galaxis.
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follow at wallet connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of
what's next. All right, we love our partner.
Shout to them as always. No Mando today, so I guess I
will do a quick market report and then get into discussion
with our crew here. Firing up this the screen share
for those who are in the stream, Let's take a look at the crypto
board. Bitcoin 82,700 up 1% on the day.
ETH also up a percent. 1790 sold all the way down here now 116
that that's up. That's up on the day, up 2%.
So what has been happening? We had tariff again yesterday.
Stocks fell 5%. Worst day in five years if you
if you throw out COVID, worst day in a decade.
And then this morning it looked like we were starting to
rebound. When I woke up, Bitcoin was
84,700. Looked like we were all set up.
First a fantastic Friday and then the news comes, China is
going to do a full retaliation, 34% back on US goods.
That's on top of the 20% that it has.
So 54% tariffs live from China. So markets did not like that.
Let's check in on where we're at.
Yeah, it looks like the the Dow Jones down 3%, S&P is down 3 1/2
percent, Nasdaq's down 4%. Jeez, VIX is up 25%.
So volatility is at all time highs.
Well, at least it feels like. Not even close.
Sorry, volatility was like. Over 100 during like the
financial crisis. Got it.
OK. So not all time highs, but much
higher than we were 10 year at 3.9%.
So the first time we've been sub four since basically September
of 2024. So that is down quite a bit,
almost a full point now from peak mag 7 index down in line
with stocks are down 3 1/2 percent here.
So, so a lot of red out there that there's certainly a lot to
unpack here, Sam, Maybe I'll, I'll, I'll throw it to you
first. Manda was on yesterday.
We, we had a, a decent conversation about the tariffs,
what's happening, perhaps our, our thoughts and what, what,
what, what's your high level take?
I mean, I think if all this stuff goes through, then
equities have a lot lower to go because I mean these, I, I think
the, the market, right? I mean, we're like, if you look
at like an Apple chart, like Apple has been built on
globalization, it's been built on cheap components, built on
cheap labor. Like that is what has built the,
the biggest companies in America.
And right now the, one of the ideas here is that we are going
to like is that because of these huge wins that American
corporates have had, American manufacturers and the
manufacturing class has lost. And that is really the JD Vance
philosophy that I feel was getting pushed here.
And if we're trying to reverse that, like perhaps a huge win
for the working class, for America, but in but a massive
loss for the big corporates and the American stock market is the
big corporate. So if that is the goal, I think
there's a lot more to go down. I the question is, is that
really the goal? How relentless are they going to
be? I think anyone who thought that
Xi Jinping was not going to retaliate has their head in the
sand. I mean, the idea that China's,
you know, Trump always says that, you know, he rules with an
iron fist. The idea that, you know, the,
this tariff announcement that was that, that is pretty, you
know, just pretty aggressive towards China and other
countries. The idea that he would just take
it like, I mean, this is a guy who shut down his entire country
for for three years during COVID.
Like he's very fine with short term pain.
So anyone who thinks that Eric Trump tweeting, you know,
everyone should listen to my dad, like was actually going to
move Xi Jinping is crazy that at the end of the day, I think
these tariffs would be terrible for both sides, you know, if
they stay so elevated with China.
And ultimately I think you're going to get resolution.
It's just very hard to know what's going on.
I I just tweeted right now, like I I have a headline from
yesterday about how Trump was open in negotiations.
And I have a quote from Trump today about how nothing's ever
going to change. You know, like if you, like I
said here, Yeah, yeah. These are two quotes.
Admittedly hard to know what to admittedly hard to know what to
think. You know, this was a headline
yesterday where he said it. And then if you look at the next
image, he bows that nothing will ever chase.
So it's very hard. It's very hard to know the
motivation here, but I so I think there's a lot of potential
volatility. One thing I think is most
important though, is crypto is holding up very well.
And my one of my, I think the two boat cases on Trump are one
that on Trump and crypto are one that he clearly wants to buy a
lot of crypto. You got Lutnick, you know, you
got luminous, you got a lot of these Bitcoin Maxis kind of in
very high-powered decision making roles and that has
clearly played out. You know, bitcoin's still up a
lot since he was elected. But the second thing is he's
extremely chaotic. And I think that there is this
theory that Bitcoin's a bit of a chaos hedge.
It's a bit of a who knows what the fuck's going to happen with
the US dollar hedge like it. And I, and I think you're
starting to see hints of that in the way that Bitcoin's trading
right now, which I which has not been true in the past.
In the past, you know, Bitcoin's traded nothing like gold.
So I think you're like, you know, three days does not make a
trend. But I don't know.
That's that's a lot of rambling, Tyler.
Sorry to ramble. Something no, that was great.
And I think I'm, I'm with you. This is, this is not the gold
chart. I'll have to find the gold chart
here in a second. Just Google price of gold, you
get it I think. BARBAR is BAR is no just bar is
it? That's BRK.
That's a bar, baby. Bar stuff, yeah.
Oh, shit, I'm, I'm sorry. This is they're granite.
No, just. It's I'll get it here in a
second and then I'll put it on the screen.
I think I'm with you in that there's just so much back and
forth. Like he's saying so many
different things, like no negotiations.
No, we are open to negotiations. And we're all just stuck in the
mud. Like what if you run a business?
Like, what are you supposed to do?
Like if you're an investor, like, what are you supposed to
do? And that's why I think this idea
that I like, I think there's a lot more proof to be had if what
I said earlier is going to happen that like for
manufacturing to be onshored, like that's a 5 to 10 year CapEx
commit CapEx commitment for Nike, like to say it is a better
five year Like. So not only will Trump no
longer, you know, in all likelihood be president in four
years. And this is all, you know,
executive order. So it can all get unwound
immediately. But you know, if if you really
wanted this to be something that that companies would make
decisions off of, you would want it ultimately to go through
Congress and have a little bit more state power, but it can all
get unwound. But also, you know, the more
that he fluctuates just like he did with Canada, you know, a
couple a month ago where we saw he was hard on Canada and then
he said, OK, we won't do it. We won't do it because you're
adding a fentanyl czar like that was enough to make him change
his mind at that point. You know, if you see that type
of volatile, you're not like, oh, I'm going to move my
factories from Vietnam to America because five years this
is what you have to do. So I think there's a you know,
there's a we got somebody here saying it.
Biden did not unwind China tariffs Muslim.
Yeah, I mean it that that's that's that's true.
If these things stay on for a long time, it's a different
story. It's just at this stage right
now, it's very hard to know where we'll be in a week.
Do you think there's any chance that Congress will step in?
Because like what what he's doing is I understand and I have
not dug in, is this is a he's basically using like certain
emergency powers which have only been using a handful of
situations. Yeah, I'm way outside my comfort
zone here, but I did see some posts yesterday that like
Congress could maybe kind of like step in on tariffs.
I I just don't have enough expertise on the inner workings
of of Washington to know. Sure.
Which just adds to the volatility, right?
It's like we still like, we don't know what Trump's real
plans are. We don't know if Congress can
get these effectively repealed. We've got states like California
are asking for their own breaks. California has to be exempt from
the retaliatory tariffs, and California's got one of the
biggest GDPS in the world. It's like that actually is a big
deal. Did you see that Mando meme?
I haven't seen Mando's. Yeah.
What did you say? It's a video, John.
It's like California when China hits USA with reciprocal tariffs
and it's just John Cena speaking Chinese.
Yeah, he's. Fucking dying man like that.
Is on one for sure, yeah. That oops, sorry, that shit was
so funny. I don't know, guys, I think I
think this is, you know, part of the I think the best take was
Sam talking about agent of chaos, right, like Trump's
chaotic. We knew chaos.
I think we said on the show, like for months, like expect
just masks, Max chaos and Max volatility for the beginning.
But he's also he's he flips easily Sam like he did it with
Canada, right, all it takes a little call little you know.
Well, thank you, you know, and and he'll remove those like as
fast as he just slapped in with terrorists.
He'll keep probably removing it just as fast.
Like for me, like I'm down bad in spot, but I'm also not like I
think a lot of people are fearful.
Like I'm not scared. Like I felt scared after FTXI
was scared for my like economic situation personally, right?
For my household, let's say. Even though I've noticed I'm
scared for my business, but I'm not scared here, you know?
Yeah. And I I think Bitcoin at 82,000
like it's hard to be. Yeah, people are, you know, it's
hard. To I mean, people aren't alts,
right? It's like my Solana bag is down
is horrendously and my Sonic isn't great.
But when I see Bitcoin holding so strong and I feel like this
is where we can build this Bitcoin narrative.
Like, a lot of people laughed at gold last week.
Peter Schiff notably, right? Like, Oh, gold is popping all
time high is getting decimated. But this is where Bitcoin builds
its narrative, I feel. I was going to say, I think it's
an important time to pay attention to the the Bitcoin
equities correlation and the Bitcoin gold correlations as
well. I know you're talking about
that. I've been following a little
bit. I don't have new Hedge Pro, so I
can't see like the most up to date numbers, but you can just
start to see that correlation with equities tweaking a little
bit here because Bitcoin has been relatively strong in the
last, you know, couple days. So this is a a chance to create
the narrative that I think Bitcoiners and many
cryptocurrency enthusiasts and investors, of course, have
championed for a really long time.
That hasn't really ever come to fruition, at least in my
opinion. So we'll see.
We'll see what happens. Could be a huge college for
Bitcoin here, right? If Bitcoin outperformed here,
especially if some of the big corporate stocks continue to
fall, that's a big deal and we haven't seen it, right?
I think some of the knock on Bitcoin lately is it's been too
correlated with the S and Pi. Think Sam, you've been, you've
been even sharing some charts of what Bitcoin is correlated with.
It seems like it's out. It's more correlated with what
Tesla than it was than the NASDAQ.
Yeah, like if you go back six months, Bitcoin has been had 0
correlation with gold. It's been quite correlated with
stocks and it's been even more correlated with Tesla than with
the average than with the S&P 5 point junior NASDAQ.
So it, I mean, it's I, I read that as like Bitcoin and Tesla
are both trading as like, just to be blunt, like how many
favors is the government going to do for these assets?
Like, you know, like how much, how much is Tesla going to get
pumped by Trump and Elon and how much, you know, Bitcoin clearly,
like we're all just sitting here waiting for Trump to pump our
bags. So I and I think that that's
they've kind of just been trading as these, as these, you
know, sort of quasi like dunk on the libs, like is Trump in
control assets when he's feeling in control, Bitcoin and Tesla do
well and it's like you're not sure what's going on.
They've both done a little bit worse so that there's been more
correlation there. But Tesla is down pretty bad
today, right? And Bitcoin's holding in.
It is. And the thing about Tesla is
like this is where I still don't know, like where we're at.
And Brooke, you said you're not fearful, and I like to hear
that. I'm not fearful either,
especially not for a crypto lens.
I think from some of these stocks though, I don't know.
I got a call I got a call from my mom this morning about her
four O 1K, which I think might be the first time in history
I've received a call of that nature.
But she's my parents are both retired.
They of course, need and depend on that type of money, you know,
to live their lives and to, to create the lifestyle that
they're hoping to. She's not a full panic.
She's not super, you know, into financial stuff anyway.
So tried to reassure her as best I could, but that was a little,
you know, just a small anecdote that I'm sure more conversations
like that are are happening throughout the world,
particularly in the United States right now, about like,
what's what's the future holding for people who really need that
type of money to to live every single day?
And they are. That's not even to have the
conversation about the potential price impacts at the consumer
level for people that aren't retirees and what may come
there. I was just looking at a Wall
Street Journal article headline that said something about like,
Americans are rushing to buy TV, soy sauce and Lululemon workout
gear to jump ahead of, you know, potential price spikes from
tariffs and inflation. What?
Yeah. But I mean, those are very real
impacts as well that are yet to be seen or maybe starting to be
seen, but people are trying to get ahead of the, well, quickly
Eye opener for me. If you're rushing to buy
Lululemon pants, you're not too worried about I.
Don't think so. I don't think so.
But there's there's knock off brands you can buy folks.
I feel like Lulu's making healthy margins, yes, as much as
I. Like don't be just buying.
$80.00 T-shirts. Sam, I felt like you were going
to jump in there. Oh, no, yeah.
I mean, this is kind of what we were talking about earlier
today, though, Tyler, I, I, I still don't feel like we're,
we're treating it like it's real.
Like if in a week, you know, the average goods you get on Amazon
go up 30% and, and, and like, or buying a bottle of wine goes up
30% or whatever. It is like I like, not only is
my bag down, but shit's more expensive.
And that money actually is all going with government.
Like, you know, there's something about like when, when
prices are higher, you're like, oh, I'm kind of like, you know,
you're feeding the economy here. It's just going, it's, it's tax
money, you know, it's going to governments, it's going, you
know, so like, I think that I think in a week, if this all
goes through, it's going to be interesting to see how I mean,
and either consumers are going to pay or corporates, you know,
are going to pay and stocks go a lot lower.
But I think, I think right now the market is still pricing in
that there's some resolution to be had in the next 6 days that
this doesn't fully go through. I also, but to Logan's point,
there's a narrative out there which I just think is dumb,
which is like the average American doesn't care about
stocks. This is just the elites who
care. I'm like every caddy I've ever
had since we're on trade and Robin Hood.
Like I don't know who you guys are talking to, but like, yeah,
I'm sure that there is a good chunk of people who aren't like
Deepens, but like most people own some stocks in some way.
They don't, they trade it, but they definitely have a four O
1K. Yeah, they have 4 O 1K or they
trade stocks. There's a huge movement out
there to try to like retire, you know, to save all your money,
get more money in the S&P 500. There's kind of this truth in
America that stocks go up over time if you just hold like there
are a lot of people who have stock exposure.
So I just, I think there's kind of like the this shift to like
the average person doesn't care. It's just the elites.
I'm calling BS on that. I think that's cope, I think.
There's also a lot of headlines right now, right?
Like all these people, like Logan.
I don't wanna assume what channel your parents watch, but
they watch the news on TV, I'm assuming, and they see all the
headlines. So of course, that whole, you
know, part of the people in America are starting to get
worried a little bit and want to go to the next.
We got, and we got Chandler making this, this point that I'm
calling BS on. Like, like he's saying there are
a lot of people like, yes, there are some, but like this is a
country that prides itself on stocks not tanking 10% in two
days. Like and, and, and Logan's mom's
calling my caddy's interested. Like and there are a lot of
people who are affected by stocks.
Going down now I'm to pivot to IBET.
That might be the call. I listen to the local radio like
when I'm going to pick up my cash.
And yesterday, like they never talked about markets.
You know, they're talking about pop culture in my place.
So they're playing music and people like conversation.
Yesterday they said don't, don't look at your stocks folks.
You own stocks, don't look at them.
So it's it's out there. I'm curious like what's the
boots on the ground European sentiment right now?
You were, if you want me to where you've been the last
couple days and kind of what kind of conversations you've had
there. I'm curious.
I think like, well, I was I was at watches wonders right in
Geneva for this huge like watch convention.
It's like the biggest watch convention conference in the
world. And I was invited by Rick
Schmoe, which is one of the largest like watch luxury groups
in the world, right, $120 billion company.
And the reason why they invited me locks our CEO and Danny C
phrase is because they kind of want to learn more about like
how the minds of like the crypt people in crypto are for as
consumers. But every single brand we
visited, I had meetings with like 1214 brands in two days was
just the one after the other. I'm talking like pleasure, I
don't know, like Vashuron, like the biggest watch friends in the
world, literally, they were so excited to dive into crypto and
learn more about crypto. We had dinner with the head of
payments at Vashuron at, at Richmond, the entire group or
the head of all global markets, been there for 25 years.
They were the most excited about meeting us.
So again, but we've said that before, Tyler, institutional
versus like crypto is such a different feeling.
That's why I guess I'm never bearish.
It's just because I see this wave coming like I spoke to Je
je al Likud, like all these big brands and like, wow, like we
want to get into crypto. It's just tough because money
laundering laws blah, blah. We don't accept crypto yet.
And I get it. It's tough to accept crypto at a
that scale, but they're the most interested about the people in
crypto. So I thought we were going to be
greedy like, oh, it's the crypto guys, but they were all like,
whoa, OK, let's spend time with them.
And I sat with them for 30 minutes to an hour with every
single one of these brands like we're doing all these big, big,
big conglomerates. And dude, you're excited, man.
So people like there's this, there's this thing about crypto,
like, you know, with the head of global marketing enrichment,
$100 billion company comes to you and wants to spend two whole
days with you at an important conference like this.
I don't know. To me, like this is all telling.
They're interested by a market, They're interested by our
network participants. And so it's tough for me to feel
any bearish to sell prices so up.
But I'm like Logan, I'm not looking much these days, you
know? And when you don't look much, it
helps. It does help.
It helps so much. My, my, aside from the fact that
the sun is shining way more here than it does at home, which is a
huge benefit actually like literally not getting on my
phone to refresh prices. Of course, I'm working in the
industry, so I'm doing it quite a bit anyway, but it's it's a
life hack. It really is like I don't even
have, I don't have any of the apps on my phone right now and
it has been, it's been beneficial during this time.
Logan just wants to disconnect Faroka.
I feel like they're just tired of seeing the watch king
flipping watches as crypto Bros make you know 50K on on fartcoin
and they want their cut of the crypto bro money.
But no, I think it's a good sign they do.
They want our money literally, because they know we have money.
You know, they know it's real money too, right?
The money's in the bank. You can't just go cash it out
like that. So, you know, so I don't know.
For me, I just look at signals like that, but it's just it's a
longer cook. Yeah, 100%.
Well and more near term cooks, there's a couple of interesting
markets out here. So one number of rate cuts in
2025, it's kind of a tale of two stories.
So there's I saw right before the show there's like a 15%
chance of a rate hike in 2025. And I think we've seen some
major banks calling for a rate hike, yet the odds of a of four
cuts are the highest they've ever been here, up to 18%.
Wow. I'm just saying 8 or more is up
to wow. That's folks I've been following
this market. Wow.
So I'm, I'm a little surprised to see this here live. 8200 bits
cuts is now up to 15%. Wow.
So some huge moves in, in this market.
Sam, maybe I'll toss it. Dude do you have a read on this
or is this just another total toss up that we have to just
wait to see like how real all this is?
It's one of those things that's so hard to say, right, because
the, the feds, you know, their, their primary goal is to keep
inflation around 2%. And we were just talking about
how the price of many goods could go up 30% next week, you
know, but that's like a self-inflicted wound.
That's not, this is not like market dynamics causing it.
So you know, it's going to be, I think it's, we're clearly going
into what like an inflationary period, but it's a bit of an
artificial inflation, you know. So do you use rate?
Do you, do you hike or cut rates to fight that?
Like I, I, I just don't know, you know, so they're, they're
basically here saying that growth is about to torpedo
downward and, you know, inflation's going to be high.
And what do you do in that environment on the rates front,
especially given that the cause of the inflation is tariffs as
opposed to lose money? You know, so it's a very, and I
think that's it's probably rare that you're going to get
polymarkets so all over the place when it comes to
predictions. And it's probably because this
is like an extremely kind of almost unprecedented set of
circumstances that that we have here.
Absolutely. I mean, Peter James, the
piercing volatility has never been more real. 24 percent
chance of an emergency rate cut in 2025.
Now that's up from 14% just yesterday.
I want to man how? Many, I mean, and that's
basically just saying like I that was what you said about the
moon overload, overload. I mean, I think like if you get
some world where like the 30% price hikes or 20 happen across
the board, like maybe that's what we have because emergency
rate cuts basically say we can't wait a month, we need to do this
immediately because things have suddenly got so bad and we
didn't foresee it coming like so that is a very, it is like a
very acute kind of thing that would cause an emergency rate
cut. Yes, which feels on the table
like so many outcomes feel like they're on the table.
The other one is the recession odds now up to 56%.
So back on March 27th, these are 33, so substantial increase
here. The definition of folks aren't
familiar. There's two basically if this
National Bureau publicly announces a recession.
So that's a little bit more wishy washy, right?
Because we can, it comes down to more torque, a bit more and we
can see governments perhaps you know use different types of
language. But the number 2 here is more
metric based. And so seasonal adjusted
annualized percentage change in quarterly US real GDP, if that's
negative for two straight quarters that meets the
definition of recession. So I'm pretty sure that we know
Q1 was net negative. I think I've seen the Atlanta
GDP numbers, they're somewhere between -2 1/2% to -3.7%.
Same. I'm not sure if you've been
dialed into that much at all. So to me, the bet here is like,
do you think if Q2 is worse than Q1, this is like a lock?
I mean, like what? What have you looked at this
market and do you have broader thoughts on like recession here?
I haven't like I don't, I, I don't spend, I feel like US
recession is so definition prone like this type of thing, like
what you know, and I feel like it, it like it's like if growth
is .1% versus -.1%, like there's just a difference of 20 basis
points, but we freak the fuck out because of that.
Like that term. It just feels like kind of a
media contrived, like kind of like over hyping of the #0 but
maybe that's a bad take. But yeah, I wouldn't say this is
something I like the this specific stat as far as like
annual GDP growth is one that I'm like hyper dialed into right
now. But yeah, I mean, if again, it
all to me, a lot of it just comes back to this idea of like,
what, like are we, is this all actually going to go through?
Like have you looked at the chart that looks like America's
historic average tariff? I'm not sure if you brought that
up, but like, it shows, it shows just how insane of an outlier
you know, this, the moment we're in is if everything doesn't
change, I'll I'll get it and send it to you.
Yeah. Pull it out that, that is a very
interesting one. I'm trying to find it.
So basically I think it's just I've got 1 here from Geiger
Capital. Always a incredibly reliable
source, but I think the chart is accurate.
Overall weighted average tariff is 29%, highest in over 100
years. And just like to show you where
we were at, like it's just like it's off.
It's like almost literally off the charts so.
Yeah. I mean, yeah.
So, so it's like, how do you like, how do you even think
about these things? Like what's going to happen once
that happens? Like it's, and especially as I
said, is it gonna happen? Like are we gonna come to some
deals over the next six days so that it doesn't happen?
Like, yeah, it's hard to. Predict, we're all just working
through our thoughts on the timeline.
I appreciate your comments. Earlier, I think some folks were
replying. Now crypto Twitter is all tariff
experts. We're all just trying to work
through this in real. Time you got to be, I mean, it's
like, you know, you can sit around saying like doge versus
SHEB versus fartcoin, you know, versus AIXBT versus Cerebro or
whatever, whatever they're all called, and we can spend all our
time freaking out over the money you can make.
But if you miss these types of moves, like these, make those
moves look irrelevant. Like macro is what determines
things. So you got to just test your
luck at trying to form opinions on this stuff.
And if you're forming opinions, post them like that.
I think that's like a great way to, to, to test your opinions
and to get feedback and to, you know, it's NFT.
God's a pretty controversial person and, you know, I think I,
I, I have a love hate relationship with his content,
but he always says this, he's like, research something and
post it. And I think like you should be
doing that about macro. It's it's the most important
thing for your bag. I'm totally with you.
That's what Twitter's for. So I woke up a little bit.
Yeah. What are we buying?
Are we buying anything far coin? Bro every day.
I know you're a shopper right now, so we we've got.
Every time far coin dips 20% I'm buying it and then just sell it
every time it rips and just repeat until I mean last night I
I texted the chat I was like far coin is looking good at 380 and
then went to 500 million this morning.
Far coin, man, I think you could just like focus on a couple
intraday coins and just take a break.
I can try and catch runners though.
I don't know, that's your stuff. It's a little wild to see if our
coin up 25% on a day where global markets are panicking.
What do you think? Is that what?
Makes it funnier. What drives 25% moves in far
coin? Like is, are are there insiders
buying? Is it like, yeah, basically
these types of moves? Is it really low supply?
Like these are just, these are crazy moves and I find normally
there's some sort of thing going on.
Hot air rises 3 words. I, I think the reality is
there's $4 million in liquidity pool.
So it doesn't take a whole lot of net, net capital to to move
these things. And I mean, I, I shared the
chart. I mean, dip Wheeler like he's
the meme God that he is. He posted just keeps going up
like people are. I don't know if it's the
financial nihilists out there like they want to get gambling
their way out is the only chance that they see or just the lack
of like there's nothing else going on in the market.
There's one seemingly consensus meme coin there, and that is Far
coin. People keep buying it like that.
That is my anecdotal read. Now, what's driving day-to-day
25% candles? It's probably a group of whales,
you know, maybe playing some whale games.
But the fact that it's held this high and that's the broader
market crash, I think is a sign of optimism for the the far coin
cohort out there. And every day it holds over 400
million, I think the Army gets a little bit stronger and a little
bit more confident. So.
And that's a mistake as a holder.
Sorry, I was just going to say I think the narrative is really
malleable for Far Coin as well. You get into this space for
like, everybody feels like everything is complete bullshit.
Everything's made-up. Everything Trump's doing is just
like random and off the cuff. And you get back to like, all
right, all right, well, F it. I'm just going to buy something
called Far Coin because like whatever, you know, like that
narrative has been attached to it to some degree for the entire
time. Of course, it started with the
AI attachment, it's adjacency to, you know, to go and things
like that. But I just think the the
narrative here is so is so malleable that that could that
could be a little strong catalyst, you know, for the
foreseeable future. And there's, I mean, I tweeted
this out before the show. People are playing this game.
People are playing the meme coin game right now.
There's volume. Abstract has crazy runners.
I'm in none of them, but I'm just seeing people cook on
there. This tip coin is now was up 70%
of the day. It's a 34 million, but coin up
78. I've got everyone who's
listening or watching. I'm fully conscious of how
ridiculous these these words that I'm saying are, but this is
the state of of the market now. Tip coin is a meme coin that
that post content that you would expect and the logo is a.
Flip. Oh, it's great.
That has been enough to to really rally a group behind it.
And honestly, I would not short this thing.
I'm not a holder. I I don't hold this, but it
looks quite strong. And then it's got downstream
derivatives, buck coin and then now this house coin.
We're going to flip the housing market disclosure.
I do hold some of that it it's. That's a good trade.
You told us that early. You gave us.
You gave us that one. But.
I don't know. This aspect of the casino isn't
shutting down. I think that that's the take
away that that I'm saying I want to maybe talk something a little
bit more serious. We're talking about the AI
sector. I.
Mean arc has gotten obliterated. Arc is now 37 million.
So price action has been bad, but we had a really insightful
conversation with the Wayfinder team yesterday with Kalos and
and Adrian. They talked us through their
agents and like I think there was a very strong and loud
cohort people on crypto Twitter who said like this whole crypto
AI meta is total vaporware and slot box in a lot of that, like
in a lot of it was this is not vaporware.
OK. If you look at these demos, if
you start interacting with their agents Midas Autonomous Vulcan
like Andy 8O52 has been demonstrating like what you can
do, you can effectively vibe code whatever crypto application
you want. You are limited by your ideas
and their tools will help you create all the code for that.
Minus is your is their version of your AI trading copilot.
So no longer do you have to be the one who clicks the buttons
to say I want to bridge 10 Solana over to ETH and swap it
to USDC. Now you can use natural language
and tell their AI just to do that.
That feels to me like the type of thing that once it gets
enough trust enough people behind, it could actually be a
game changer. But Logan, I know you've been
following parallel for a while. I'm curious for your reaction to
that conversation yesterday. Yeah.
So as a disclosure, I'm a prime casher.
So have put some some money behind my conviction here and
what they shared yesterday. It's I encourage everybody to go
listen to the conversation. I don't want to try to repeat
too much of what they said because I'm not going to say
anywhere near as well. But it's exactly, you know, what
you were alluding to, Tyler. It does feel like a level or two
above a lot of the things that we saw during that AI bubble,
which they called social agents, which I think most of us called
AI slot bot reply guys. You can actually vibe code or
vibe interact your way through crypto.
And it may not seem that appealing to those of us who are
active and have the technical acumen to make those types of
trades, right? Like swapping Solana for USDC
isn't difficult for us at this point in time.
But when you think about onboarding more people to crypto
and the technical barriers to doing so, something like this is
potentially very, very impactful because one of the reasons that
maybe more folks haven't participated alongside us is
that it is difficult to do. And there are a lot of like
crazy little nuances that you need to know in order to go from
chain to chain to chain. So I'm, I'm really excited about
that as a, another disclosure or like I've used Midas.
I had it find me the best yield for USDC and just went ahead and
you know, it's like two or three messages.
This was early. I got early access because of,
you know, prompt or prime cashing maybe a month ago or so.
But it's just, it's pretty incredible.
And like, tell it to do do things for you and it's it's
going to do it. I mean, that's the type of world
we want to be able to live in. And we're sort of seeing it play
out and be manifested via this. And as you noted, yeah, you're,
you're only limited by ideas. I think a lot of people have had
really awesome ideas in crypto. It's difficult to implement
them, you know, often times. Hopefully this helps us get more
of those across the finish line. So Logan, like tell me
specifically what did you do? Like you just do a ChatGPT
interface you said find me the like.
What specifically did you do? Yeah, So I had access to the
transaction agent again, believe his name is Midas or whatever
else they've code named it. You go in, it's very similar to
a ChatGPT interface or any typical chat messaging app
interface. And I knew, you know, what my
balances were and everything. And I just asked it to find me
the best yield for my USDC. You know, it came back with the
the responses of, you know, here's via Ave.
This is whatever the percentage was.
And then I asked it to go ahead and, you know, activate that
more or less like, you know, put my USDC to work in one of those
pools says, OK, you confirm the transaction like you would any
other crypto transaction, which is something Kalos was saying
yesterday to the trust point, you know, like, how do you trust
this? Well, in that instance, it's
very similar to completing a transaction in any other way.
Completed it and it's, it's still staking.
So yeah, it's, it's on a wallet that I don't have access to at
this point in time, but to pull up or share with you,
unfortunately. But it was maybe 3 minutes of
some back and forth like it finding the, you know, the rates
for me, me deciding which one I'd want to take advantage of,
then telling it and then it go ahead and.
And making the move for me, that's, that's pretty awesome.
What I pulled from it too, is that the way it works, I'll
admit here I have not used it and I need to.
Is it basically like you asked it to do something and it shows
you the step simulations so you can see specifically what's
good. And then if you like that, you
can click the approve button. So that's how it it, you can
kind of build some level of trust.
I feel like this is big. I've been in conversations with,
with, with Sam and he's asking like, OK, what's the best bridge
from chain A and chain B? Well, now, like if you asked a
question about that, like in a more real world topic, I can
say, well, let me check GBT that for you.
Now you can say, let me, let me Midas that for you or soon you
just go directly to Midas and then you ask these questions.
Then maybe early on you Fact Check it with your, with your
sharp bodies to see is this actually right?
But then once it is right 3 * 5 * 10 times, then you start using
it for more things. So I, I think it's a big deal.
It's going to be a fun one to to follow.
And folks, if you if you're not following their tge is sometime
in the next two weeks, maybe even one week.
They said first couple weeks of April.
So that's going to be a big one to watch.
Let's talk about parks a little bit.
We've got 10 minutes left in the show.
I guess quick for those who are interested in the roll bit spins
later on the show here in just a few minutes.
Stocks is the code. Stocks is today's code.
We will be doing those spins here in just a few minutes.
Punk floor holding up OK 41.6 ETH the unless one just sold.
You're up and ETH. We're down a bit in the big the
Punk Bitcoin spread. But you're up and ETH now.
We're up 6%, we're down 6%. Rather a couple nice sales.
We saw this nice 3D ladies sell for 69.69.
That was a nice one to see. But then this is the one that
jumps out to me. Crypto Punk 392, that slick gold
chain. Jay-Z.
Has only been. You're muted.
It's only been sold.
Don't you see me in this punk? Yeah, dude, that's my name.
Gold Chain. It's This is me.
When Mohawk. When Mohawk.
I don't I think like my balding maybe just a Mohawk is probably
the way if this was a 20. One bull run.
If this was a 2021 bull run, this would be digital blackface
or you get cancelled for it. It's 20.
Five, I didn't realize you bought that until I saw a new
PFP on Telegram. Yeah, yeah, I, I, I like this
punk. And you know, I, I, I think
I've, I've got a white skinned male.
I got a white skinned female. I was like, let's let's mix it
up, get some cultural diversity in my punk collection.
I'm a fan. It's quite the collection. 3
punks now. I know they're all down bad.
So I'm like, you know how like I actually got into crypto because
of punks. Like I think everyone's got
their crypto asset that they feel the most connection to.
And for me, it's punks. And.
Normally I want to sell my punks.
I'm like, why am I in this liquid stuff?
But then a week ago I was kind of like, I kind of like that
punk and it looks kind of like Jay-Z and it's a good compliment
to my collection. Then you just spend a week being
like am I going to buy this? And then one morning you just
push confirm you're like what the fuck did I just do?
Y'all know the feeling? Yes.
I'd say I. Bought it more as a collector
than like as a collector I'd say.
If I had to like tie it to some macro trend going on out there,
I'd say I think that like my ETH is kind of pretty idle and my
crypto bag I keep in crypto, you know, and, and my bitcoins
bigger than my E. If I have this ETH sitting
there, I feel like it's going down every day.
And I was like, you know what, fuck it, like let's just put it
into a punk that actually like so it was, it was a bit I would
not say that I would read this as a smart money move.
It was just like more of a collector, more like I kind of
like that punk. It'd be a nice addition to my
collection. And once you decide you might
want to buy 1, you can convince yourself of all sorts of reasons
to buy. It's not among the reasons I
convinced myself I have 3 kids. Now I need 3 punks, one for each
of them like. Just stupid.
Hey, dude, Absolutely. It'll get passed on, you know
you don't. What is it that you you, you
pass on next generation? You know, that's it.
Yeah, exactly. I can't just give each of my two
of my kids a punk. No.
You never actually own a punk, you merely look after it for the
next generation. Exactly the second.
But. Yeah, like Cyrus pinged me
though. He's like he's like, hey, why,
why'd you buy a punk? I was like, because I'm an
idiot. Like I I like I again, I I love
punks. Also, I will say this.
My only two punks are punk 9 O 59, which is my I, which is my
handle and my PFP. So it it like I feel like I can
never ever trade those. Yeah, I forget rally.
Maybe I can. This one is a bit more kind of
transferable, but I'm just I'm trying to like it.
Yeah, well, I certainly understand that.
I'm I'm showing Jay ZS Twitter page because I think there's
some folks who have joined the space since 2021 who may not
know. Dude like Mr. Carter like the
Jay-Z punk Yep, basically that your your your cousin here so.
There used to be rumors about those chain punks.
There was rumors about those chain punks 2021, how Jay-Z
would throw special events for chain punks and then you could
go and then the punks. Chain punks ripped for the
highest time at the most insane floor like hoodie punks.
There's only 100. Percent If you believe that
broke, I got a moon bird to sell you.
I I I never believed that. That's why I don't own one.
Oh, today I learned the women gold chain is horizontal and
not. That yes, Sir.
Same with silver, it's not a good trait.
I really don't like those Joker look like it just it does not
like it to me. The Hidden Gold Chain's
favorite. This is a sick 1.
Yeah, the hidden Gold Chain's gangster's fuck.
Yeah, it's crazy the idea that that single pixel adds like, you
know, 10 grand to the. Price probably more 30 to 40.
More. I just like to keep it muted,
yeah. I I just need these punks to go
a little lower. Like I want more but I don't
like the floor as much so I don't know.
They're holding nice though. You said you bought it as a
collectible, but do you have a take on punks versus Bitcoin
over the next? 6.
Months. Nine months.
I, I, I really like punks, man. I just like, I like punks and I
like Bitcoin. I like both of them.
Like, I, I think I always say like in crypto assets are like
wine. You want all the, you want to
own the old stuff, you know, the stuff that's surviving the test
of time, I think is like the best stuff to own.
And but yeah, I mean, ETH is very fragile right now and punks
are denominated in ETH. So it's it is hard to like want
to dump too much into it. I'd say I don't if if I didn't
have Ethan a wallet and it was like use another currency to
buy, I'm not even sure I would have.
I was just like sick of having this wallet with ETH doing
nothing. So I was like, I'll just buy a
punk with it. But.
Yeah, it sort of goes no use. I have a question because I'm
with Danny and today he asked me he was like if ETH goes to 0 the
pumps go to 0. I'll buy a ton of them.
At zero I'll. Buy a ton of 0.
We didn't get to claim them. So I'll buy 100, if he goes to
100 I'll just buy a ton of punks like.
So what's up with the punk claimer Wilcox legend?
I mean, legendary criminal now, I guess, but or not.
But there's this punk claimer Wilcox who's like a legend in
the streets of crypto punks. And he came what, $10 million
short of his tax bill and now he's got the IRS on his ass.
So this Wilcox guy is a top ten holder of punks.
He still have 100 of them. Do you think so?
Is the IRS about to seize punks and and does that mean that
punks will be in the reserve? I don't think so.
I I did, I don't think they would take the punks.
Punks feel like a very unattractive asset for
government to own. So what's the story here?
Like, what's the what's the story?
Just read that. My guess is he I mean he claimed
tons of punks. He he sold a lot.
He's a legendary punk collector. Like, yeah, he.
Claimed tons. He sold them over time and my
guess is he didn't declare taxes and it was public enough that he
got caught. And this is what this is
alleged, I mean, but this is from folks the IRS website.
So this is beyond just like a a news.
Yeah, I'm not making this shit up like this is like.
So underreported as income from 2021 by 8 and a half million and
then again next year by 4.6 million.
So he underest, he underreported by 13 million.
That's a big number, folks. That's just a small decimal,
right? I mean, basically what happened
is he claimed these punks and he sold them, you know, over time
and he didn't tell the IRS so. Was there an article on this?
Like why is the IRS writing about $10 million article?
Probably because they want to send a message to NFT olders
that they're watching. Yeah bro, for sure.
That's a good point. Made me say it right is
committed to unraveling complex financial schemes involving
virtual currencies and not a fungible talk right and this
could I could even see like the more like that Trump is making
crypto political to the group too right so I can actually see
a part of you know this is becoming a little bit more of a
political tact too from those that are still.
My guess is this is more legacy Biden though.
Like I don't think this. It's been under.
It's been under way. It didn't.
Start This has been a long process.
Like, you don't just suddenly realize someone's thought.
Like, yeah, it, it maybe, but for, I don't know, I, I don't
know enough about tax evasion to know how frequent, you know, $15
million of unreported income is. But maybe this is, maybe it's
not that frequent. And when they get someone they
they post it. Yeah, that's a big number.
Pay your taxes, folks. I think the the big question
though, is like, what is going to happen to his punks?
Like is he going to be forced to sell these?
Is he not going to be able to sell because he's going to be in
jail for, for three years? I, I have no idea.
I could if these types of offenses typically come with
jail time or if you get you typically like negotiate,
negotiate it down. I would think you they would
rather have him just pay a big fee would be my but I like this
is way outside my comfort zone and hopefully we'll remain
outside my comfort zone for as long as I shall live.
Indeed, indeed. Well, that takes us to the most
more topics, Sam. I wanted to just check in
mainland anything, anything to report on what's cooking over.
There, I mean mainland bought a public company so you know, 2440
dot HK pull it up. Yeah.
What's up with that? Finance@yahoo.com I mean, this
is something that Ray wanted to do.
You know, he bought the public company and before even doing
anything, the company pumped to 100 million U.S. dollar
valuation just for basically the shell company.
And yeah, yeah, I think the he has all sorts of ideas for the
stuff he wants to do with the company, but that I think that
that is one of the more interesting things.
Like it's like there there's clearly it was influenced by
MicroStrategy. And I think the original idea
'cause this is something he's been cooking on for like a year.
The original idea was for this to be like a MicroStrategy but
for meme coins and you know, kind of, and it could also be a
long term steward for meme coins.
Like you go, you know, like you know that this company is going
to hold meme coins but not sell them.
So like, if you can, perhaps you could, you know, it should be a
great place for to park supply for coins because it's a long
term holder and a way for public markets to get access to to meme
coins. That that was one of the ideas.
Obviously we're not in as meme coin conducive of an environment
right now as we were six months ago when I when this was all
cooking on the idea, But there are all sorts of other kind of
plans for what to do with this. To me, the most important thing
with everything kind of meme line related is that meme coin
ends up being the primary stakeholder in the beneficiary.
So that's, you know, a little bit of a tightrope, but
certainly something that we're focused on.
There are a couple other products, I think a couple other
products that we're cook in that I think could be interesting
where I think there might be real product use case, but
they're still not out there in the wild or discussed probably a
few months out before I think you start to just to see those.
I'm spending a little bit time kind of working on some products
that we haven't really discussed publicly.
I'm a big fan of not discussing some of these things publicly.
The minute you start talking about, it becomes a little bit
harder to kind of get your day-to-day through.
So yeah, we had Meme Pay, which was a credit card product that,
yeah, I think it's like done some interesting things, but
that's become a bit of a crowded space.
But between Meme Strategy, Meme Pay and a couple other products
we're working on like the The Bunny March is on, man.
We, we love to hear it. This is exciting stuff, Tim, I
want to thank you for for joining us.
It's been an incredible conversation.