All right, good morning, good morning GNGN everyone.
It is another beautiful day to have a beautiful day.
Welcome to another episode of Homo Hour.
This is episode 191. We are two weeks away from
episode 200 and you believe it. Today is Friday, August 30th
.44444 folks. It's another cloudy, rainy
morning here in Chicago, but big butt.
We are set up to have a beautiful weekend here in the
Windy City. It's going to be 80 and sunny
for the entire next stretch. We are feeling good Question on
all of our minds. Is crypto set up for a beautiful
weekend as well? I'm not so sure, but we will
talk about it on today's show. We got a fun one on deck.
I am excited for today's show. No, for real, he is out.
No Mando today, but we've got Logan Hitchcock.
He is the editor in chief over at Lucky Term and a special
guest, Bret guy. Bret is going to be stopping by
later on in the show as well. I see him in the audience trying
to get him up here. But while we wait, Logie, Jim,
how you doing? Hey, good morning Tyler.
Have I rectified all audio issues on day three?
It's a little bit better. OK.
All right. I'm doing well then.
I guess that was the big question mark for me.
So I'm feeling I'm feeling OK to start.
Not super convincing on this Friday, but we'll we'll let
Logie get into it here with us folks.
What are we talking about on today's show?
So we are going to start with a quick market report.
I'll do my best Mando impression.
We'll ask, will the summer of Chop ever end?
Memes seemingly as dead as a doorknob.
We've got a judge dismissing the lawsuit against Elon Musk and
the claim that he rigged or inside traded Doge.
Prediction markets are going mainstream folks, with
Polymarket leading the charge, but they've got a feisty new
competitor heating up the entire sector top is back.
Brett's going to talk about it with us later on.
Hawk to a girl apparently opted for a mad lads over AD gods,
much to Logan's chagrin after yesterday's conversation.
So we'll hit that and Machi's $100 raise raise in quotes, plus
a lot more and folks, it's Friday, it is Friday you know
what that means Robit spins. So as a reminder, retweet the
space, make sure you're following all the hosts to be
eligible for that. But folks, before we get into
the show, we have a new partner that we are very excited to
introduce to you here this morning with Galaxis.
Shout out to Galaxis. So the Galaxis pitch, if you're
not familiar, they are building the digital asset version of
Kickstarter meets Patreon via their digital membership card
platform. So the problem for creators and
celebs in this current state, platforms have all the power.
If you piss YouTube off, they can de platform you and you lose
the community you've worked so hard to build.
Well, Web three offers the opportunity to build communities
that cannot be the platform. And that's where Galaxis is
leaning in. And they've worked with some
major celebs like Steve Aoki, Mike Tyson, and along with
brands like the NBA to try to bring this vision to life.
So what do they actually do? They build the infrastructure
enabling these digital communities tied to NFT digital
membership cards. Their CEO, Andres Kristoff, he
explains it pretty well, so I'll quote him here.
What Galactus has built is a combination of Kickstarter and
Patreon. It's a funding and monetization
framework that's based on digital membership cards.
And with these memberships, they are unlocking real world
utilities. So for the Mike Tyson NFT 1,
Lucky Holder got to spend 3 days with Tyson on his ranch, even
sparring with him. For the NBA partnership, they
featured play player cards with created based on player
performance dynamically. And then perhaps most notably,
we buried the lead. Galaxis did partner with the
Trump team to help provide the Web 3 infra for those Trump
digital trading cards, helping sell out that first batch of
45,000 cards at $99 each. Arguably one of the most
successful celeb NFT launches ever.
And while those Trump NFTS have offered point in time utility
like the dinners at Mar a Lago, Kristoff says the next step
would be longer term utility and perks and even things like
monthly subscription payments. And that's what their
infrastructure does support. So it's going to be interesting
to see which projects are the 1st to successfully unlock that
feature. But overall, Galax is doing big
things and paving the way. I want to thank them for
partnering with us. Excited to begin this
relationship, Logie. Curious as I was thinking about
this and this monthly subscription idea.
Are there celebs or creators out there that you'd be paying
monthly Subs for? Yeah, it's interesting, Tyler,
I, I was initially skeptical of this, but having a fiance that's
a Swifty has changed my mind a little bit and understanding how
how much people want to receive, you know, behind the scenes
content, this sort of backstage stuff.
It's a smaller list for me, but I think there's some tennis
players like a, a Yannick Sinner, despite the controversy
of late, Ionic center type thing like that would be really cool
for me to be able to see kind of the behind the scenes everyday
stuff, life on tour, traveling the world, playing tennis.
That's yeah. So I think that's the the avenue
I would lean down. Yeah, I think you went the the
athlete slash, you know, star route.
I think even inside crypto, there's probably folks like I'd
probably sub to a Kobe membership as if there was one.
I was even thinking like even Mando, like Mando, you don't
have to because he gives away so much of his alpha in public
everyday. But folks like that, you know,
at the right price. Is that something I had monthly
sub for? Absolutely.
So let's I would be into it. I like the model quite a bit
folks. Looks like we've got bread on
with us. Let's get him in some fun
breaking news. Bread Guy up on stage with us.
If you are in the stream, we'll look to get him up on the spaces
here as well. If you don't know Bread, he is
actively making butt picks. Great again, he's half Viking
after spending two weeks trekking around Norway, but he
is back with us. Back desk looking to get back up
Bread. Damn, how you doing my friend?
Not great. I probably sound like shit
because I now have this hood ornament of a mic that does not
work. I just found out it just there's
a problem with Rode USB that just died.
So dealing with that. So this is worthless to me.
Yeah. But no, I'm I'm back having a
good time. I am a little disappointed that
I'm the breaking news and that there's not actually something
crazy interesting going on in the in the markets.
But, you know, we got stuff to talk about, so we'll do it.
Yeah, we'll see if if more pressing breaking news does come
live during the show. But Brett, happy to have you on
as always. Well, let's get into it.
I'll I'll start us off here with a quick market report before we
get into our juicier topics. Let me get the the screen share
fired up here. Just one second folks.
So I think for for starters, just going around the horn,
crypto majors are down a touch here today.
Bitcoin down 2% each down the same.
Bitcoin 59,450 E 2510. Solana down 5%.
So Solana is lagging here fairly substantially, down at 139.
On the ETF front, some outflows yesterday.
So Bitcoin saw 72 million in outflows.
That marks three days in a row. It saw a 1.7 million in outflows
there as well. On the meme board, I think was
jumping out to me about the the meme coin sector right now is
there's just very few winners. So on the days where Bitcoin and
Solana are green, we see everything kind of jump up along
with it. And then they move up like
leopard bets. So if Seoul's up 10%, your memes
are probably going to be up 20 to 30%.
But man, on the days of the chop, it's just mostly red on
the board and, and I report the top five meme corn movers every
day and I've been struggling this week to even find 5 / 10
million in green on a daily basis.
Like I'm I'm looking at the soul board right now streaming it is
almost all red all the way down a handful of up five or 10%.
The E board did a little bit better on the day, still very
red up top. I'm trying to Scroll down and
see where some of the winners are.
Yeah, really not that many. This bruh token up 77%.
This kerosene token. I saw B check reporting on
kerosene. It's tied to a stable coin in
some capacity. So I'm going to have to dig into
that one. I'm not really as versed, but
overall that not the not the best day there.
I've already seen folks asking. We've been asking the question,
are memes dead? I've been seeing folks asking
the question is Solana, has Solana topped?
I saw a poll question yesterday, Has Solana topped for this
cycle? I did have to stop what I was
doing there for a second. So like, are we really asking
this question? But Logie, I'll ask you
directly, Has Solana topped for this cycle?
I, I hope not. Is that the best answer I could
possibly give? I mean, I feel like at this
point in time, we talked about it on the show yesterday, Tyler,
you know? Chop.
Until there's more certainty regarding the election chop
until you know, whatever people feel better about overall macro
conditions, I don't know. I don't know what's required to
make things go up at this point. But it feels like we're going to
chop for a while longer and I'm going to, I'm going to hold spot
and feel OK. And that's that's about all I
can say really. Sage advice as always from
Logie. Brad, a couple things I want to
ask you about South. One, we've been talking about
Ton quite a bit this week with Pavel and and the arrest news
that another piece of big news is it going down twice.
And what jumped out to me is that no one seemed to care.
So I I'm curious, like if you saw that as well and like, are
the ton millions of users? Are they real?
Are they fake or are they just not in our circles?
What's going on? Yeah.
All right, so I, I actually do have a a pretty strong opinion
on this is like we still the same thing with Solana, right,
because Solana was the first like big chain to really break
into this or break into this. But like have instances where it
went down right and it called into question like what do users
give a shit about right? Whenever it first went down,
everyone on the Ethereum side, everyone's like the one job of a
blockchain is to not fucking go down.
That's the job is to stay up. So it was a big deal, right?
And then over time it happened a few times, whatever you started
to realize that end users like, yeah, whatever, I'll just go
take a break for a little bit, come back when it's back up and
that we maybe are over indexing on some of the properties of
blockchain, right? And like there's valid points
for why Solana does go down. Solana is so fast that you go
down because you want to like it's so fast.
If you stay up in a rocky state, the state growth in like how how
broken it can get is exacerbated because it's going so fast.
So anyway, it's just to say that they prioritize, they prioritize
a different property than Ethereum, which prioritizes
liveness, right? They prioritize scalability
rather faster or whatever. So whatever.
So it's just another instance of just coming back to like we I
think over index on some of these virtuous things that we
think block chains are supposed to represent versus like what
end users and what people actually give a shit about.
Now ton is a little different. It's not like a high throughput
chain. And I even saw like they put
together a form for validators to like coordinate better to
basically do the discord restart stuff that Solana had to do
whenever they go down right. And like that's that's taboo in
the in the centralized or the crypto world because it feels
centralized, but like, you know, it's just kind of what they have
to do. And yeah, I just think it's
another instance of us over indexing on on what some of
these things actually matter to a lot of the world.
And then As for users, I think most of the users are in
Telegram, which is not directly tied to ton the actual back end,
right? They're clicking games, doing
shit, hoping to get an air drop three months from now.
They're not actually doing on chain interactions.
Yeah, and that makes sense. So like using fancy top as an
example. There he is, Mando.
Incredible. Another fun surprise here this
morning. We'll we'll we'll throw it to
you here in a minute. Just to to round this out, I
think with fancy top, like a fancy top, if if blast went
down, a hardcore fancy top user might not know, they just might
know their app isn't working. So I think that's, you know,
that the disconnect between app users versus a hardcore
blockchain users. And perhaps that's where we're
moving. Perhaps that's why we didn't see
as much noise on the timeline. Mando, I want to welcome you to
the show. Love to have you on as always.
I gave a very quick, very quick market report.
But curious anything jumping out to you here on Friday as we as
we close the week, are we just going to keep chopping for the
rest of our lives? What's what's the status?
Yeah, well, Bitcoin's chopping, everything else is just going
lower, isn't it? It's not, it's not that good.
I think Bitcoin dominance is heading up to about 58% here.
So Bitcoin continues to be around 60 K Everything else is
going lower. I had a talk with OVX even
today, like is the Bitcoin dominance trade now to
consensus? Like it just feels like
everyone's just like converting back into majors and I'm not too
sure. Like everything else is down so
much. Like it is unbelievable how much
the top 100 is down. You're starting to see D5 coins
getting a little bit of traction again.
I'm just, I don't know, I just had a thought today that maybe
it's just too consensus that everyone's just like
everything's a scam apart from Bitcoin.
Do you think we've gone because it, like, do you think dilution
plays a part of that, right? Like the capital allocated to
the buyers that are in the market?
There's just so many coins that were being so spread out that
it's hard to go back. Like everyone's looking for the
same thing, right? That whole water flow, water
flow chart of Bitcoin to Ethereum, then to alts and like
whatever, right? But like this is our third cycle
and we're like, there's just so many coins to buy.
Do you think we're getting too spread out to like really lean
on what we used to do the last 2-3 cycles?
I think that's definitely part of it.
I, I tend to find that's more of an issue in modular blockchains.
So like for ETH, a lot of people want to buy like ETH beta or
because a lot of the, the fees are moving towards L twos.
Like there's different ways to play that.
Solana, the meme sector as a whole obviously has massive
dilution, but I think when people want to buy Solana, they
don't generally buy like Solana beta.
They just buy Solana and the means of stuff because there's
just so many of them on on Seoul.
I thought it's a slightly different play, but you wouldn't
buy maybe six months ago. You buy with as as like a Solana
beta play, but there's not really a Solana beta coin here.
Like Solana can go up and all the means can go lower.
I, I, I feel so, yeah, I feel like that's particularly for any
sort of modular chain that's, that's an issue.
But I also think that maybe that's where the gains could be
too. Like I'm really starting to pay
attention to more D5 stuff now. Like it just feels as though as
a sector, I'm not too sure if the major means will be the
things that even recover the best if Solana rips like or if
or if let's say Bitcoin goes to like 80K70K.
Like I think as a sector they are, they were perhaps slightly
overbought and that as we know from NFTS, it takes a long time
to like to recover from sometimes.
So I don't know, I'm just I'm looking around a little bit and
thinking like broadly where stuff should be in like I'm log,
for example, even looked at today, log is down.
It's 350 million. I was like, wow, that's.
I was wondering this morning, is this point ever going to go back
up? But I was like, that's low,
right? Like mug to me feels they have
more mind share than something like pop cat or stuff like that.
And I sit there OV like, should I should we look at this one
again? And I think we both came to the
conclusion that although it was low, it like it may not even be
the thing that that like pumps the hardest or even has like the
cleanest looking chart going into like the if, if everything
pumps, let's say ETH does have some gold candle and we head
back up towards 4000 and Bitcoin goes up towards 80,090 thousand.
I'm just not even sure if these memes will will recover in the
same way. So I don't know.
That's that's kind of my thought process at the moment.
The standout thing for MOG, whenever I did the meme point
comparison based on holders, The thing is stand out for MOG was
just it's such a small group of holders in the MOG coin.
That was always just kind of an odd thing to be given the mind
share that it has on on CT. It's just it's so hugely in
front of everyone. But like and like I've been
talking about it. I still don't own it for
whatever reason, but I've been talking about it for a year now.
It's been an obvious thing. I know it's the same with like
the pops token. It should, but you you mentioned
defy I so I'm pretty ingrained in like the people that have
been analysing that stuff, Arthur, obviously, who have the
charge with that. I've kind of talked about it and
then I've seen other people referring to it, but even
evaluating a lot of those defy tokens and like, OK, like
everything at this point and we actually let off this segment by
talking about Seoul. Does it ever go back up kind of
thing? Like I know it's kind of
hyperbole, but everything, even the D5 sector's like, fuck, do
you why would you lean into that Whenever like Seoul still still
feels like the obvious higher upside thing, Like like, why
would why would you go into D5 whenever it's like, yeah, it's
quantifiable, right, That you have earnings, but still next
marginal buyer might be tried by guys that might appeal, appeal
to them. But still, it feels like Seoul
is obvious, just like sitting and role play.
Yeah. So interestingly, I know I said
I wouldn't buy Soul Beta, but I have looked at some of the Soul
D5 stuff and thought that that might be the best because as a
in terms of throughput like Soul obviously does close to
comparable volumes with well at least the L1, but even some of
the like the L2's, the big D5L2's so and they all look
slightly undervalued compared to anything on ease.
So I thought, oh, maybe, maybe some of those are worth looking
at. I'm not looking at something for
a one week trade. Basically when I'm looking, I'm
never good at those real trades. Like I'm, I'm not normally OK at
looking at trades for like, what's a hold for like 6 months?
And like, could this be a bit of rebound?
And I just think like through the election, if Trump gets in,
I mean, Trump is literally promoting it is about to promote
a defy coin, right? Like Defy protocol is Defy the
right? Like as we come out of that, if
you start to see crypto regulation, you start to see
talk of more policy being able to push through maybe maybe
that's the best risk reward. It's difficult for me to say
like right now I've been very major heavy.
Obviously I have I think, which is my own own coin.
But other than that, I just haven't really played anything
or anything in massive size. And now I'm just thinking about
it's so consensus just to own majors and everything else is a
scam. But I do think some of these D5
things could be OK. Are you telling me that Trump is
about to make defy great again? Is is that the?
Is that the take away from I've heard?
This conversation, it's called Liberty Financial, right?
I've heard it's something tied to like his own properties or
something like that. I think it's like a property RWA
protocol. That's what I've heard.
We still know what it is, but I think part of the problem we've
got a telegram and the telegrams running ads with scam links
already. So so so be careful clicking.
I feel like it's more of a. Risk I.
Feel like it's more of a risk to Trump and perhaps to define it
as a positive. But we will certainly see what
this thing actually is. I'm happy it's not a meme,
Quinn. Well, let's just let's we we can
leave it at that. But as we keep pushing through
here, I think another intran on the day and it was kind of a
quiet day just to, to set the stage was Bloomberg.
The Bloomberg Terminal is adding Poly market data to, to the
terminal here and they're starting with the, the election
markets. I, I don't think that would be a
surprise to anyone that that's where they are starting.
And that I was refreshing this morning when I didn't realize,
man, $765 million now that on the presidential election
market. So we are coming up to a billion
quite rapidly. I checked in on the Poly market
numbers here. I actually wrote it up for the
the newsletter this morning. But all time highs across the
board. So, so they beat in monthly
volume in August, like a 30% jump in monthly active traders
is probably one of the the better metrics on the chart.
Daily active traders up and to the right open interest over 100
million, it's up like 17% and monthly new accounts up a tick
as well at 68,000. I guess my question for you,
maybe more of a hard hitter and I've got a few that I want to
talk about on this topic. Do you think Polymarket has gone
mainstream? And what is the definition of of
mainstream here? Like certainly coverage is
mainstream, but then when you look at monthly active users,
it's got 61,000. So I guess how do we define it,
Logan? Maybe I'll I'll toss it to you
and then whoever wants to jump in.
Yeah, I, I think pawn market has gone mainstream at this point in
time, addition to the Bloomberg Terminal use in, Oh my gosh,
like almost everyday financial news and reporting.
I think it was on CNBC last week or you know, one of those shows.
I, I would call that mainstream, breaking out of this bubble in
which one to 2000 active people are talking about it and at
least providing the opportunity for others to become aware of
it. I, I would call that breaking
out into the mainstream, of course, getting more users
paramount in becoming a mainstream application, but
making its way there. I, I would, I would definitely
say yes at this point in time. I mean, the, the collaborations,
the partnerships thus far have been slam dunks.
They make a lot of sense. They're not like reach weird
connections. So I, I think everybody who's
pulling the strings here is doing an excellent job of
getting this and creating a really, really strong potential
top of funnel. I love the product.
I think they've done a great job.
Brett, maybe I'll toss it to you.
I think what what's really throwing me off, I guess is, is
really just looking at that the the user counts like like
Frintech had the this level of numbers right at at peak,
weren't they putting this up? So I guess I'm curious for your
thoughts, are you surprised at the at how mainstream this app
is? Like it's, it's quite literally
on CNBC. It's on major media streams on a
daily basis. But it seems like the user base
is primarily like a core crypto subset, right?
Yeah, I'm, I mean, I'm not surprised by it.
I was actually back in March, I was even like I saw Poly market,
I was getting involved in it and I was even talking about
building out an alternative because there's some stuff that
I thought they could revamp. But yeah, I'm not, I'm not
surprised given the, the political climate and how
contentious a lot of this stuff is and how could it being a true
reform. I, I think a lot of people do
believe that with monetary backing, if you actually do it
is a truth seeking machine. As Vitalik said.
I, I tend to agree with that. The I made a point that like the
Poly market or these prediction markets, kind of they are about
emotion or at least the market arbs out emotion, whereas like
even coins like emotion is exacerbated.
So like they're kind of like a go hand in hand with each other.
So I'm not surprised to see it, it did grow.
I am surprised to see how prominent it is in mainstream
media and how I guess that hasn't translated to direct
users because you're right, 6060 thousand seems like a really big
number. That's kind of what the fintech
numbers were, although I'd say those are probably a little
more. I don't know that is truthful.
That is civil. There's not so much civil
incentive here or any really. So yeah, I'm not surprised by
the growth. I am surprised by the amount of
prominence within mainstream. Yes, that's good for us.
It is and they've done a really good job spinning up new
markets. I think I've personally been a
little surprised at how they've been able to manage the the
daily volume. So that they had been like we
had a few blow off days around like when the VP market was
resolved, when a few large bets were resolved.
But you know, largely up and to the right people are they're,
they're finding daily things to to bet on.
So they've done. Someone, someone mentioned the
mention market. I like, I, I like the mention
market that's kind of starting to grow out of this.
Like you had mentioned, you're mentioning words inside of a
specific, specific debate. People are having a lot of fun
with that kind of stuff. And I'm wondering if the mention
market is something that will persist beyond the actual like,
you know, political shit. It has its own tab now.
I I I didn't even realize that. So what?
I hate the one thing that I dislike is the wrong word.
It's very hard to find resolved bets.
So I'd love to pull up the mentions market from from the
Trump speech yesterday, Logie's no on Pavel hit.
I went two for five, but I hit a long shot.
So we basically broke even betting that the Trump mentions.
It does feel like mentions and all these markets are politics,
right? So I think the question is will
mentions be able to break out of, you know, these presidential
candidates who every speech that they're giving right now is
under more microscopes than anything else.
But it's an interesting concept. Brad, you asked me in the in the
chat before did did bet on their $20 million a day steal in the
Poly Market Volume? I don't really know that it did.
I think it does. It does raise some questions of
what that 20 million is. But the big news also prediction
markets folks, predict Not Fun is set to launch on blast next
week. So they're going live on
Tuesday. As a reminder, they were given
879,000 Blast gold. That's worth roughly $879 or so
pending your calculations. And they are set to finally go
live. They missed August.
They will be live next month. If you don't remember, they came
out with a pretty strong pitch and how they're differentiating
themselves from polling market, that pitch being native yield,
higher liquidity, higher precision and the substantial
incentives. And of course, this is going
live on blast. Logan, I'll toss this to you to
start. Which which of these four
factors do you think are most important?
To to you or to to broader users?
Yeah. I mean, I think incentives to,
to me, you know, high liquidity is great native yield is great
precision. We're still not exactly sure
what that means in terms of the, the pure application of it.
Incentives though, you know, give me a reason not to go to
polymarket basically. Is that blast gold 879,000 Blast
gold maybe is there something else on top of that like a
predict token? Right?
Maybe. Who knows?
I'm, I'm clearly speculating here, but that that would be
personally what would give me a reason to potentially use
predict versus Poly market at this time.
You know, there, there are pros and cons to the, the sorry, I
mean, there's lots of cons to low liquidity, but there's also
pros in the fact that you have opportunities to take advantage
of arbs or, you know, markets that are clearly more
inefficient, right? That that's why that one doesn't
matter so much to me. Like I said, precision.
We'll wait and see. And as a small note, Tyler, I
was thinking about when Mando's walking through the D5 coins and
stuff. I I happened to scroll through
UMA which is listed on there for I don't know why, but is that a
picks and shovels type prediction markets going
mainstream? Play one of those oracles, an
Oracle coin, not the. Segue so Uma Uma has a token is
that? Yeah, I, I pulled it up.
It's down 95% from all time high.
OK, it's $2.16. It's down 14% in the last 30
days. But that's the Oracle that I
believe predict that fun has teased.
I think they only have like 3 or 4 tweets, but I believe there's
something about UMA there. And then I don't, I don't know
the the picks and shovels insurance and out technical
details of the oracles and stuff.
But if you scroll to the bottom of Polymarket, it indicates that
it's powered by UMA. As well.
Yeah. So yeah, Uma definitely powering
Polymarket. It's interesting to see it power
predict that fun. Which raises the question of the
high precision factors. So how are they going to have
higher precision with the same? Unless they had perhaps like a
curated team? I guess I'm not really familiar
exactly with how the UMAUMA protocol works.
Yeah, me neither. I I can't answer for any of that
stuff. It's just a spur of the moment
thought as. I was just scrolling.
Through those coins. But I mean, if you believe in,
you know, prediction markets being the thing, which I think a
lot of people are from this cycle, right, as being the the
thing that kind of makes its way out of crypto here, that's your
that feels like a picks and shovels type play, you know?
The interesting play interesting play for sure.
I, I disagree with you your comment on which of these
factors matter, but I'll save my thoughts.
I, I don't want to sway bread. Bread.
Curious for your thoughts which of these four factors will
matter the most? Logie went with incentives for
native yield, liquidity, precision.
I think matter for me is different than matter for, for
the product matter for me, I don't like long term bets in
these and probably because there is there is no native yield
associated to it. But you notice that on
polymarket a lot of the higher, higher liquidity and higher
capital markets are the ones that are long dated, right?
Like the the fucking election, right.
People have conviction on that and it's six months out or
whatever. Those people would appreciate
native yield and having that native yield weight also
probably give people included additional incentives to
actually put out bids like limit orders and stuff and actually
thicken up the the order book because now you have margin of
error of what an extra 4% that you're willing to to play with.
So now instead of like people having to do this because
there's basically no incentives on polymarket, right?
It's like a dollar for every 500 bucks that you bet or some shit,
a close to the actual the actual limit that's out there.
If you do, now you have 4% on top of that, plus the additional
blasts incentives, right? So now you have people that are
willing to actually like throw orders out there because, well,
shit, I have progressing out there.
I'm making money anyways. If I'm wrong, while I still get,
you know, I can I, it extends the time window around my bet
being right or wrong, right? Like I can sit there and throw
it out there and hold on to it, but if it starts moving away
from me, my margin of error is now 6% away from me as opposed
to like if I'm wrong every percent is is cutting out of my
capital or my principal. So I think that, OK, go ahead.
No, so stats was talking about this yesterday that the native
yield and commenting on its importance.
I mean, you've got markets on Poly like Alabama presidential
election winner, it's only at 98%.
Like in reality this is basically 100% like Alabama is
going to go Republican. But the, the opportunity cost of
locking up your capital, it just, it's not enough for folks
to to go get that extra, you know, 2% or whatever it is.
But with native yield on top of your bet, maybe that is enough
to go for the folks who want to go these like micro game back up
the the pennies in front of the steamrollers.
They're going to have more opportunities with the native
yield. That's not going to be it for
me. I still think the high liquidity
matters the most. Like you can have all the
incentives in the world. You can have a great native
yield, but you can't get good action down on these markets.
I got. I don't think it's going to,
It's not going to. Be well, they go together,
right? That's what I, that's what I was
saying. Having that native yield allows
for people to increase their liquidity or like put orders on
the books, right? Because now, like I said, I, I'm
viewing this, that you mentioned the time effect of this, and I
think that is very important, right, right.
So like I can put an order on the book knowing that if my
order is sitting out there, I'm getting native yield on it and I
can sit there and let this thing move away from me and you know,
keep my bid out there for, you know, as it creeps away from me
for a couple percent because I know I'm still in the green.
Like I'm not eating into my cap or my principal once I put that
bit out there. So like right now, if I do it on
on polymarket, I do it every percent of it moves away from
me. I'm losing money.
But if if I'm or I lose, I'm losing my principal.
I should say if I do that now knowing that I have blast fold
incentives, which is usually closest to the current, like
they're probably going to do the same blur thing, right, Because
blur they do incentivize bids that are close to the actual
floor price. Do something similar to that to
thicken up the order book. They're probably going to run
the same playbook here. They have blast fold with
proximity to the the current, the current price and then to
have native yield on top of that.
So I can sit there and have my thing resting out there and as
it moves away from me for three weeks, a month and just let it
bleed. I can I'm not actually eating
into my principle. So I think it like the native
yield adds to the high liquidity it.
Will intense, I feel like my read is they are risk averse.
So like they're happy to farm with their capital in low risk
methods, but provide liquidity on some of these markets.
You are you are putting it up right, But there is a chance
that you can lose it. So I guess is the scenario here
that they're going to, you know, market make the 5050 Trump
Kamala election market and then just pull, pull the quiddity 2
days before? Like is that the is, is that the
play here? I'm I'm just kind of curious how
this is all going to map out what the gold incentives On the
gold topic, Brad, since you, you have been chatting about it a
bit, What's, what's your current price target?
So we had we had what $6 per gold was the target ahead of
TGEI think it ended up coming out around a dollar.
What the what's your mental model for it for round two?
To be honest, I so I've been evaluating L2 dynamics for a
while now and I'm still, it's the, the psychological aspect of
bidding these L2 tokens and just the Ethereum ecosystem largely
is kind of fucking with my head, right?
Because as we know, in the current paradigm, L2 tokens have
basically no correlation with the actual underlying activity.
Like, I'm sorry, no, no structural tie into the actual
activity on the thing, although they do seem to correlate a
little bit based on the activity.
So people are psychologically associating these L2 tokens with
activity on the chain even though they're not directly tied
to each other. And that kind of ties into the
fragmentation that Mando was talking about before, right?
Although I'm in the Etherium ecosystem, if I want exposure to
base, I'm not going to buy Etherium.
I buy if base has a token, I'm going to buy a base token even
if it is a bullshit governance token or I'm going to buy OP
because base is in the Super chain.
And like, so like psychologically, traders seem to
tie exposure to ecosystem to the L2 tokens and bringing this all
back around, I think based on some of glass like combined
incentives inside the ecosystem where they have the application
revenue or like activity going back to that actual application
teams, right? Like the contract source
revenue. If I'm an app that drives
activity on the chain, I get like the gas fees from or the
fees that the that we actually generate back to me.
So that's instead of just for the team native yield, which
allows for products like this predict dot fund blowing up a
little bit, being a little differentiators and being a
native like the native yield helps there.
And then the mobile first had objectives of Blast.
I'm still hopeful that again, because even though the token
itself doesn't directly tied to the activity on the chain,
traders do associate it with that.
I'm still hopeful blast. So I think it's mispriced.
I think it is something that will come back up just because
you know, like the, there's a lot of unique things that Blast
has to offer and I think that'll that'll shine through
eventually. All right, Brett says.
Raise your targets, folks. So get back out in those blast
streets. We certainly have seen that like
running out this discussion. Pac-Man has endorsed predict
that fund pretty heavily. I think there's going to be a
lot of attention on this. The other app on blast that has
attention right now, folks, unless you've been living under
a rock, it's fancy top. I know this is another big one
for bread folks, kind of combing through the data.
We don't really have it from this weekend just yet, but last
weekend we did see, I want to say.
So it was Friday. Yeah.
So last Friday they hit basically a two-month high in
daily trading volume, eclipsing what had been another two-month
high just the week before. And we are off to another fast
start here this weekend. We see mint the the minting rate
is now at three month highs. Let's take a look at users.
Users still pretty steady. So user growth is not really,
you know, moving up and to the right.
Looks like we've got just a core 1600 people who are using this
app and they come in and they use it every every week.
Brad Kill, curious for your thoughts, if you've had a chance
to kind of dig into any of the data since you've been back from
Norway Press, what might jump out to you, you know, from any
of these metrics? Yeah, I so I actually keep a
local dashboard that I, I run through and do some, some
tracking on things like the number of listings on the
marketplace and then unique holders of the actual fantasy
tokens, stuff like that. I've been, I've been noticing.
So like the, the Market Volume numbers is good.
Obviously we like to see volume, the fresh mints is good.
We like to see that because that's that shows just new
capital coming into the thing. And that's honestly like that's
what gets redistributed to the heroes kind of starts at
flywheel again. And that's good for us because
we're heroes. And then but I I've been
watching the unique holders of the actual fantasy tokens
themselves, so the actual cards and we've almost, almost, almost
had our first positive day. We've been down only for the
last three months. Every single day we clip out.
10s to hundreds and but the last few months or last few weeks I
should say it's been single digits, double digits, low 20s,
high singles. So I've been waiting for that
one day where I can put the post out and say like first Green Day
holders gone up day over day in three months right since launch
effectively, but it's bottoming up.
It's really close. We literally yesterday was a one
person left. So I got.
Close. Yeah, it it feels upswingy and
there's a colt for me. A Colt is absolutely for me.
I think one of the challenges with Fanstop, I still think it's
hard for like a minnow to play. I think it's hard to to put .1
Ethan and really play just yet. So you got to come to the table
with a little bit more. We're seeing the overall floor
kind of hold up. So it got to point OO9 almost
point O1 the other day. It's down a touch here.
How is your port? How's your portfolio been doing?
Have you been happy with, you know, recent action, Brett?
So actually, thanks to the ever decreasing price of Ethereum, I
think I'm actually like neutral slash up because of and like
blast rewards and then like the actual like work price of some
of the upper to tier cards I got.
So I'm doing all right. I'm honestly, I'm constantly
just like recycling these things into tournaments.
That was kind of the thesis is like OK, lump sum upfront and I
could just like keep rolling out a solid deck week over week and
hopefully get enough fantasy points, slash cards, slash trade
ETH rewards to justify the initial spend.
And then, you know, if I need to bail out, I can bail out.
So I'm I'm happy with it and it is fun.
Like it is a little bit different.
I just keep rolling it out. Some of my heroes have screwed
me, which is fine. That was kind of expected part
of the game that makes it fun and.
Yeah, so let's talk about that. So Amanda on a, on a huge
upswing. So shout out to Amanda.
He had a solid 3 weeks there back over back into the top 100.
Took a, a little bit of a fall this week, but I'm sure he will
shake that one off as we get into next week.
Brad, your, your Norway trip we got, we got a, you know, you've
been calling out some of your heroes for not performing your
fancy top hole. Bowlers want to know, are you
back and locked in to the desk? Yeah, I I was getting they
thought the butt would do it week over week.
Apparently that's shock factor. One week is good, the following
week, not as much. Yeah.
So I'm rebuilding it back up for my boys, trying to help out.
How do you guys question back to you both?
Mando Tyler, what are your thoughts on like people
reviewing you? Like, I know Khalid is a big
guy. Every week he does like his
predictions based on stars the following week, whatever you
guys might see the tag on it. How do you like people
evaluating you as a poster, hero, whatever and actually like
cheering you on saying you're good, bad, whatever is?
That to me, yeah, it's, it's weird.
I think I think about two weeks ago, I was like, AI was a good
three star. And so people were like, Oh
yeah, this guy's a great three star.
And then I think I became like a four-star and then I was like,
oh, no, fuck this guy. So it's kind of funny, like like
I think I want to see my, if you go to my school over the last
seven days, I've basically had the same score the whole time.
But like, I think the view of me is just like completely shifted
over that period. So it's, yeah, that's The funny
thing about it, like. It's because it's relative.
So I'm learning about the algorithm.
So it's relative, right? So it's not just like you,
you're like based across all of Twitter.
It's based across the cohort of heroes that are out there.
So like if everyone else is is crushing and you're doing the
exact same thing, then you're going to go down and be like,
that's what I'm learning from the guys that do this stuff.
But yeah, it's the same shit like, like then you get the guys
that are rooting for you, like, oh, I really believe in Mando.
He's, you know, he's so consistent, he's doing whatever
and he's at least trying. Some of these heroes are
assholes. They don't do shit in the get
rid of them. Yeah, my only complaint is not
being reviewed enough. I need to get more meta analysis
on my cards out there. So Mando's, oh, that's just a
seven day. I want to see the longer Mando's
pretty much a stable coin. Bread not looking the same.
Let's see how. Down only.
Only indeed. See how I'm doing.
I'm a stable coin as well. It is interesting.
It's like the the the number of stars on your cart is a huge
factor and how playable you are in these different tournaments
based on the stars, caps and and whatnot.
I think it's also clear that there is a level of bodding that
is happening. I certainly see it in my
engagement, but it doesn't seem like the Twitter algo seems to
care that much. I don't think we've seen any
folks penalized much. I guess.
Logie, have you been, as you've been listening to this, I know
you've been loosely following the fantasy markets now since
they've been out. Why do you think they're seeing
it, this kind of resurgence, this comeback here in August
2024? Yeah, it's an interesting
question. I think, you know, you found a a
sticky group of users that enjoy this.
I know I've been outspoken about it not being that fun or it
seemed that fun, but people have enjoyed it.
People's lives are on social media.
This particular cohort and the new heroes and those on their
way out fall in just the same. And then the additional
incentives. I mean it, it feels like one of
those opportunities where a lot of eyeballs shifted away.
And as you've noted on, I think on this show, Tyler and others,
I mean like just by playing the tournaments every week, like
you're doing pretty well, not to speak for you, but I mean like
you're making a non trivial amount of money each month just
by rolling your cards back out there each and every week.
And so I think those types of things, I mean, people that
already have the portfolios built, why move away?
You know, if you can kind of do really no effort or low effort
and you know, make a make some money, enjoy, engage, you know,
whatever the case may be for each individual person.
That's what I think. I've personally never played the
tournaments of the cards. I didn't ever seem that
interesting to me. I have played the tactics a
couple times near the end of the first blast gold AirDrop type
stuff just to experience it. It's OK.
I don't think I ever did well. I think I burned.
However, you know, basically all my money picking people that
whatever, you know, I was using no analysis or anything like
that. I was, I was picking people that
only I really recognize, which is probably a huge flaw as well.
Well aware I was dead money, but it's OK.
It's just not not really my thing.
I mean, kudos to this team for continuing to do stuff to
iterate. The French test.
Yeah. And in between baguettes,
they've they've shipped a pretty good product.
It's got some clear product market that yeah, on the on the
returns. No, I'm I'm probably
consistently making about half an eighth a week at this point
in rewards plus cards. I think the the problem is it is
getting harder so people are back.
It is more competitive. The the last question I had is
fan points. So what are our two early price
predictions? Brett, maybe I'll throw this to
you. DJ an ape trader didn't put this
out yesterday got on my radar. If you don't know DJ an ape, I
think he's one of the top pico top players in the game.
He put out some back of the napkin math.
He thinks there's we're on track to have roughly 2.6 billion fan
tokens. So I guess Brett, 2 early
predictions. What kind of market cap do you
think we can see fan come out at?
Jesus, I mean, in this market, 0 everything, everything's zero.
Come out at 5 million, go down to 0.
Come on. 10 million. Everything is red and.
Give me a real. Give me a real number if this
token launches on December 31st. So look, all right, so that
means you have to start doing comps against what gaming
tokens, right? So because that's how we do
everything in this in this world.
We comp it against things that we think are kind of somewhat
similar to it. And then we say, is it better or
worse? And then, you know, that's how
we do the mental math. So what like I would say gaming
sector. OK, so then if we go to the the
biggest achievers in this, what's prime at these days?
Like Prime is a a notable gaming token 2. 169,000,000 Market cap
OK. That feels.
You know, million FTV. Wow.
Like we know it's never going to be above base or not base blast,
right? Like you can, are you going to
have a token on the platform that is higher than the actual
platform itself? Like you're never going to see.
Probably not. Well, not not with this app.
I wouldn't say, I think it's, I think that's possible.
It's a good question. So then what?
What's blast market cap? Because I know that's been
getting, oh God, getting destroyed.
It's gonna make some people sad. 185 million hundred.
And 85,000,000, OK, so we figure a a portion of that that's the
ceiling at at a minimum I'll say 45,000,000 not bad as my totally
making up a number, it's a quarter of what's going on here
like. We're going to need more fan
points. I think it's the take away
there. We're coming out of 45,000,000.
Let's add a few zeros. Last rapid fire prediction.
We got to get to roll that here in a second.
Machi's pre sale we talked about a couple days ago on the show,
he's got this weird metric. He's he's tracking with the the
net worth of people who registered the pre sale.
But apparently that group is up to $123 million in net worth.
Any predictions for this? And then Logie, Logie, have you
registered for this and where do you think this might come out
at? I, I did not register.
I know I mentioned on the show the other day that I was
interested. I, I didn't ever come around to
participating. I have literally no guess as to
what this comes out at. Part of the show's you got to
make guesses. Are we including, are we
including Machi in this because the dude's sitting on like a
gajillion dollars across like 9 chains?
That's a good question, It's actually being asked in the
reply. So when modesty registers, is
this kind of 5X? I'm guessing that he is not in
this number, but who knows. So what the like, what are the
top coins? Top meme coins on blast was I
guess top coins on blast was like a yes and those that we
were looking at the other day. Pack up to 60 million at peak.
I, I don't, I don't know, maybe there's like a ton of liquidity
at maybe like 8 to 10 million. It does seem fair 2X for pre
sellers yeah. Mando are you in on the machi
pre sale or are you marked much slave?
I mean, I don't think you could lose money on it, but I don't
know. Is it, is it what?
What's even the meme? It's it's actually him.
It's just the Machi coin. It's literally just like the
Machi coin. I just go to a casino, right?
Like it doesn't necessarily feel like much more than then we're
hoping that it's a 2X maybe out the gate from the LP.
Is this going to go like 15,000,000?
I don't know. Seems a million Max.
It's much less interesting to me that I could it's been open to
the public for so long. Like I don't know who didn't get
in this pre sale that wanted to. I tried registering, I could.
I couldn't get it. I couldn't get it to.
Work. What was the process?
What like how is that how they're quantifying these the
net worth? They just see the associated
wallets and then tabulate their on chain.
And you do to connect the wallet and I'm sure they just added up
what was in that originally it was a, it was a series of blast
projects and communities who are eligible and then they opened it
up to the public. I based like all the group
chats. I mean, most folks were able to
get in and log it. I think there's a lot of folks
who are in this one, but seems safe fish.
But yeah, I'm not not sure on the upside.
Feel like I'm going to go through this entire cycle
without a single presale to my name and I'm proud of that.
You should be proud of that. I wish I could say the same.
I caught a wombat. I talked about something.
I caught the wombat presale. Even.
After even after one. Of my more embarrassing moments
of 2024.