Yo-yo, yo, what up? What up?
Good morning. Good morning, GMG.
Oh, yeah. Oh, it's it's Monday.
Monday live, 15th, 2020. Look at that.
Another beautiful day to have a beautiful day.
I got my coast in the house. Oh, Seth Mando, how you guys
doing today? Are you muted?
Ovi, you're muted. There we go.
What's eating my eating my burrito ball.
I'm good How you guys doing? I'm.
Doing great man. Fantastic doing fantastic.
Mando, you look like you got a little change of change of
background here going on. Yeah, I'm on holiday.
Is there a back? Is there a echo?
No, no. You sound you sound a little bit
quiet though, I would say. I think I have.
May not have, yeah. Oh, that may be it.
There we go. It's like double connected there
for me. Let me see if I can fix this.
Sean, you're on vacation. That is nice.
Something has ever changed. Look at that big Daddy OSF with
the burrito bowl back in business.
I, I, I think I do hear it now, Mendo Check, check.
Is it is it Ovie's luck? Because you know, Ovie, how we
used to always make fun of Mendo's like technical
difficulties, but he hasn't had some, and now you're back and he
has one I don't. Know could be a bad bad omen.
Let me tell you something today though, the bulls are so back in
town. You know we never left.
The bulls never left though. You know, a lot of a lot of bull
has definitely turned full bearish over the last few weeks.
We know, we know who you are. We have your names written down
in the group chat. We're going to hold you
accountable down the line, but but that's one thing for sure.
So today's the show today. Today we got OV back.
So for sure, you know with the boys we're going to talk some
market today. Obviously Friday evening was
Trump's assassination attempt. So that was all over the
timeline this weekend. So I'm assuming we're going to
talk about you know, some politics though, trying to not
fall down politics slippery slope over.
I started to tweet that this weekend, but you know, it's like
we we can't not fall into it. It's like the the main narrative
for crypto is literally politics right now as well.
So it's hard not to fall down that rabbit hole.
So we're going to talk about, yeah, Mr. CPI is so funny.
I didn't know about these nicknames, Mr. CPI.
Anyways, so we'll talk about markets, we'll talk about the
bulls, we'll talk about how we're doing.
We may talk a little bit about football maybe, but I'm not sure
because Ovie said that if England doesn't win, the whole
golden bull market is in jeopardy.
So I don't really want to bring this back up.
Really scared me there there was we'll.
We'll we'll serve a bull market. It just won't be the Golden Bull
run that that. So we have to wait 202026 Yeah.
Is that what we have to do? The Golden Bull Run is like a
multi year long bull. Run.
It's like 10 years long. Right.
So it lasts for a decade. Yeah.
Like imagine stocks from like 2010 to 2020.
That would be like Golden Bull Run.
What's better, insufferable English fans on the timeline for
two years until the World Cup or a Golden Bull Run?
Like what's what's like or not getting it?
I think I'm OK not getting the Golden Bull Run and not having
to hear about how it came home for two years.
Yeah, it'd be, we would be pretty insufferable.
I agree with that. So.
I'm biased, so I'm biased. I was cheering for you guys,
though. I just want to put down the
record when, you know, you guys scored that, that screamer.
I was like, let's go, let's go. Anyways, so talk markets and
then we'll see what what topics we have time to go on about.
And we'll give out 100 bucks. So we'll pick someone, just
retweet the spaces, follow us as usual, blah, blah, blah.
And if you're live and then sure, we'll just give you $100.
But anyways, anyways, anyways, nothing for you to do.
What do we get right into it? Can you dig it?
Yeah, man, what a what a weekend.
Like when we were on Friday, it felt as though, you know, we had
a little bit of a rally and then when we reclaim 60K for that
weekly candle, we just ripped higher.
So Bitcoin is sitting about 6 or 7% higher than where we were on
the show on Friday. Solanas broken through 150, so
it's about 153 ETH. Interestingly, they're all
rallied about the same. So if sold Bitcoin all all up
around 5:00 to 6% today, they all kind of reacted similarly.
Obviously a few different things happening here and it's
difficult to work out what was the biggest thing.
I think firstly, markets are pricing in a very high degree of
certainty now that Trump is going to win.
So obviously we had that moment around the assassination attempt
and then after that Bitcoin started to rally pretty hard.
Bitcoin was hanging out around 60K in the hours shortly after
that and it was, that was quite a key point of defence I think
for liquidations, particularly for bears.
We did breakthrough that for the weekly candle kind of overnight.
There were a few headlines over the last 24 hours which may have
caused that. Firstly, there there was a
rumour that China may be looking to unban crypto in Q4.
You had a lot of large accounts on this on this app, including
Mike Novogratz. Retweet that and say, you know,
there's a huge deal. Obviously this has been rumoured
several different times, so let's see what actually happens.
But that would be that would be very bullish, I think for the
market. Obviously Hong Kong has been
good, but the, the ETF demand kind of shows you that it's
still kind of small compared to the, the absolutely huge
interest there is in mainland China, given that's where all
the miners have been for so many years in Bitcoin.
And then you had a couple more headlines.
So you had #1 which is Russia. Russia is now looking to
integrate crypto into its Stock Exchange, which I thought was
quite wild. So they've been saying that for
the last few months that because of all the dollar sanctions
they've been under, that they were going to try and integrate
stable coins a lot more. And now they're going to look to
allow crypto trading on the Moscow stock index as well as
more integrations into the general financial infrastructure
around Russia, which I think is very interesting.
It's starting to see stable coins being used in lieu of the
dollar. And then thirdly, you saw that
the ruling party of South Korea, which has been relatively
crypto, well, pro crypto has come out and said they're
probably going to delay the capital gains tax on crypto
until 2028. So you're talking about 3, very,
very well, four if you include the Trump headline, but pretty
much around the world, very, very bullish headlines for
crypto. South Korea is obviously one of
the highest, has one of the highest rates of adoption of
crypto. Russia's obviously has a very
high adoption of crypto. Mainland China being brought
into the fall would be huge. And then you have obviously the
idea of the Trump pump, meaning that crypto gets a better
adoption throughout the US So, yeah, just a very, very bullish
spate of headlines there over the weekend.
You saw the majors, the majors actually did some of the best,
like being at 5 to 6%. Again, meme coins have been
relatively, I would say mixed. You've had Morgan podcast, which
we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks.
They've generally been the strongest too.
And then Pepe and whiff have slightly underperformed.
But you, you saw, you know, this is still like this is this is
something to paint paint on. And I put this in a group chat
of some of the boys over the weekend.
Is that these charts of top one hundreds?
And I've been doing this for six months now.
They are now largely altcoins. And they were, and particularly
if you look back over the last two weeks, over the top 300,
let's say, because top 100, there's not that many meme coins
in the top 300, but there are in the top 300.
I guess Billy's, Billy's in there.
But a lot of these are now altcoins.
Yeah, a lot of these are now altcoins.
And that that's been a change from it being almost entirely
meme coins is that this rally, you've actually started to see
it be pretty broadly across most altcoins.
And that's where a little people reaching their back to to like
deploy some gaps. That looks like a lot of
altcoins are up like 6070% now from their lows.
And they're still down a ton. Like the charts look horrific,
but they are bouncing from a very, very low, very low level.
So, yeah, it's it's a, it's an interesting part of the market
here in that you're seeing all coins kind of match some of the
moves at least in, in mean coins, but a very, very strong
broader macro picture. You've seen stocks obviously go
higher again on the back of this.
Again, that would be mainly pricing in the idea that I think
that Trump is going to come in and and that market, I think
I've been pricing that in more and more for the last few weeks
as part of the reason for the rally.
So just a, a very, very strong week this week.
We don't actually have that much.
We have the, the Fed is going to, I think Jerome Powell's
actually talking today. But after the, the print on
Friday for CPII, think it's, it's kind of expected that we're
going to see rate cuts. It's now more of a question of
how many. I think the, the, the consensus
is 2, but we could have one or three.
But let's let's see how how that goes.
And I think you we have the ECB decision later in the week and
some retail sales, but nothing huge this week in terms of in
terms of macro it will, it will mainly be a little bit quiet.
I think we have one more fed for the summer and then we're kind
of done. OK, That's that's that's that's
that's OK. That's good.
Mr. CPI. I mean, there's no more CPISPPIS
and all that shit is ahead of us, is there?
Well, until next month a little bit, yeah.
For a little bit. Yeah.
It feels like that's all we talked about the last like 3
weeks, two or three weeks. It's like, oh, Powell FOMC.
No, because there's that dovish dovish, muvish, billish,
muggish, whatever it is. It's just, it was a lot of it
was like heavy macro. Like I feel like, I feel like
everybody was trying to make an excuse to why the market was not
doing that great. But we couldn't because like
that, because like the trap market was like doing incredible
while crypto was just like performing like trash.
So everyone in their mothers was on time, like trying to figure
it out why, Oh, no jobs being created.
That's why Bitcoin's down like 20%.
Germany just finished selling. That was the other headline,
obviously. Germany finished selling.
They're done. Finally, they're done and we
ripped. As soon as you don't need to
stop sending the points. It was, it was the whole thing
was literally on a plate. It was on a fucking plate.
And all you had to do was like, oh, big technical selling from
German government had this much to go.
Once it's done, we should rally. It was like this technical
selling from the German government in a backdrop of some
of the most extremely positive headlines I've ever seen for
crypto, especially the Trump stuff, which I think is the
biggest thing right now. So I'm just like, this is, I
mean, I'm so deep in anyway, like I didn't buy more, but if I
was sidelined, I would absolutely be buying as much as
I could in in the last few weeks.
And the most bizarre thing to me is just reading the timeline and
people being like, we've lost the 55K level now.
There's no, you know, there's only air till 41 K and all these
like chart guys getting super bearish AT55K.
And lo and behold, they're all Max bullish today at like 63 K.
And it's just like are are you guys like dumb, like I don't
want, you know, for lack of a better term, like, I'm sorry,
but like it is as simple as German government selling, done
selling super positive headlines coming up, including hopefully
the launch of the ETF this week. So it's just to me was one of
those moments. I was like, man, this is just
one of the like easiest like lay UPS ever.
And I'm just watching person after person after person,
people who've been around in crypto since 2017, 2015, 2014,
whatever, you, you know, how long they've been and just
fumble it like generational fumbles.
And, and a lot of these people are still sidelined by the way.
They're still sidelined from those levels.
And I'm thinking, man, if you sold at 55 K and you've been
sidelined on this move on the way up and you just had that
Trump stuff over the weekend. And if you do get an ETF this
week, you must be like, I don't know how you stay sidelined
here, Like unless you're inherently bearish on
everything, if you just sold just because of charts, you're
in a very, very tough position right now.
It's a very tough position to stand here and watch.
I think it's really good to break down actually, because I
don't think these people, I don't think it's necessarily, it
sounds really smart, you know, like if we break 60 K, you know,
we'll go higher. If we go down 50K, it sounds
alluring in that like you don't have to do anything yet, you
know, like just just chill, wait until if we go above 60 K, you
can be bullish. The issue about this is that
crypto is very violent and you also get these if you're a
chartist, you get these like deviations where fake breakouts
or fake fake drops below resistance, right?
So when it hits 60K like it did Sunday night, right, it then
just like gaps so aggressively away from where you can even get
in. So your concept of right, I need
to get in. You probably have a fraction of
a second. And in that exact moment, it
could also be a fake breakout of which case, like when it's
hanging out at 60, when it's hanging out at 60 point 5K,
right? Are you meant to buy it there?
Or is that fake breakout which you could get hurt on And then
now it goes to 63 1/2 K. I'm telling you the same people
will be saying wait for the retest of 60 K.
You're like, wait, wait until we hit 70 K and then you're meant
to buy it. I guess what I'm trying to say
is you need to be unbelievably quick if you're going to be a
chartist in crypto because the periods of gains are so, so
violent. But look at look at the last 12
months in crypto. Bitcoin moved aggressively
higher in a period and you didn't have time to catch it in
that period, right? There was no, there was no way
you could catch it in that period if you were a chartist.
It just broke out and then just kept going.
And if you weren't quick enough or if you were waiting for a
retest, you got screwed. Now this could very easily be
the same same sort of deal like you're now going to, you're
going to sit there and go like right, I need to wait for the
the pullback to get back in. Well, of course.
And it could just, they could just keep going.
I mean that's what happens from 35 to 6 to 70 to all time high
like 35K. Everybody was calling for it to
be slapped down in 20s and then it ran to us to all time high
and then everybody was it was 40s forties to all time high
inverse signed line. So so then you're sit as you
said, you're sitting there having been given a 54 or 55K
entry, let's say, and you waited until it was confirmed at 60 K
being broken, right? You wait for that and that isn't
confirmed even on the 1st breakthrough.
You have to wait for like a retest.
But then that retest never happens and we just keeps going
higher. It's just, it's just dumb.
It's just like you think you've done something smart and
actually your logic just doesn't doesn't hold when when you try
and apply it. Look, we've had the SEC head of
crypto stepping down, SEC withdrawing from the Ethereum 2
point O investigation. You have the ETF coming this
week. You have an unequivocal Trump
support for crypto, Trump speaking at Bitcoin conference
at the end of this month. And on top of that, you have
very likely rate cuts given the data that we've had.
And these are all undoubtedly very positive catalysts that
will see us through until at least the elections, if not the
end of the year. So, you know, like I said, if
you're not, if you're not bearish here and you sold just
because of charts, you're in a very tough position where every
potential headline and catalyst is extremely, extremely
positive. And we're at levels right now
where we're not at all time highs.
We're still off all time highs, right?
Yeah. Yeah, and, and sentiment's
really low, right. This is the this is the the
we're we're at fear on the on the fear and green index.
True. Right, it's the lowest sentiment
and sentiment indices. It's still.
Quite low by two. 1023. It's still quite low.
That is crazy. Look at this.
It's still not like where it is now.
It's and we are. How we're 10% from all time
high? Dude usually and and see this
was a coin you're. 10% from all time high is that?
Yeah, 10% went from all time high.
I mean, and look at Ethereum, I mean, even the other now it's
not just like, yeah, Bitcoin did really well, but even ETH is
looking to go back to push towards your highs.
Solana is looking great too. Like even the majors at this
point are looking. And you were pointing out that a
lot of the ultra starting to slowly like speed up as well.
Another point to like what you guys were saying, how much
lower, lower did people expect things to go?
Like all it's already down 80% while they're going down another
100%. It's like at some point it's
like how much, how, how much beating can the whole market
take? So I, I find it interesting when
I, when I see, you know, everybody start freaking out and
losing their minds over just, you know, the little things.
But anyways, there's not many bulls left out there.
There's not many bulls left out there, not the traders at least.
That's amazing. I love it.
It's so much fun.
I think, I think it's great. And OSF came back just to shit
on the TA guys and I'm here for it.
That honestly, when you asked me, I was like, yeah, I'm just
going to come back to shoot the TA guys.
Like I just I just need you to do it and and as many different
like formats as I could. So let's let's go into the next
format of of how you can shit on the TA guys.
I don't think the TA guys expected what happened on Friday
evening. I mean, boys, let's talk about
that for a minute because obviously, like, we have no show
on the weekend. Fuck yeah.
What the hell? It was late this whole year and
then this whole thing happens. I was this is insane.
It is insane. I, I think we, we're like, we're
not political analysts. So like the idea that we're
going to get some like crazy stuff there, but I think it is,
it is insane. I was living in the world,
right? That if, where, where would a
Bitcoin have gone if, like, God forbid, Trump had been
assassinated? I don't want to imagine that.
That's terrifying. Like, what is the candle then?
Like I was trying to think about myself because if that happens,
it just feels as though the sentiment in the US, it's, it's
just like a, it's like it could catch flame at any moment,
right? Like it just feels that a
moment, if that happened, I, it could have gotten really bad.
I think really, really bad. I think you could have had a
Wick. We could have hit like, I don't
want to say. We could have gone below 20 K in
my opinion. Well, you think that if Trump
would have been shot dead on Friday night because we went to
20 Ki. Think it would have been pretty
bad Civil war man. It would have been a complete
like it would have been a complete shitshow in America, I
think. Damn, I think he's in a Wick for
sure. Like because you, you're really,
I think you could have seen a, the level of violence that could
have broken out in the US could have been to on the teetering on
the point of questioning about the US, right.
And that, although a lot of people have pointed to that
being like a very bullish outcome for crypto in general,
you know, like Bitcoin is decentralized.
So it's not, it's not tied to any state.
I do think I did wake up and just think, wow, like imagine if
you'd had any leverage or if you'd had any sort of risk that
could have exploded on, on a, on a move like that.
And it's something to be aware of.
Like if you you might think that like you could never get
liquidated, but a move that is the sort of move that I think
would have liquidated every single person in the entire
market. Like in my opinion.
So that that just got me like crap.
I mean, think about what happened with Iran, right?
Like the Iran, Israel thing we dropped, we've got like a stone.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Solana nearly went on to 100
when that happened. Right now imagine Trump gets
shot and you start to see uprisings across the US and non
like very serious uprisings I think.
I think it could have gotten really mental.
Yeah, I mean that is that is that is really scary.
I mean, what what are your thoughts here?
I mean, first of all, like this is just bat shit crazy that we
we're back at living in a day and age because we didn't really
live the JFK era and like those things, right?
Obviously you weren't born, but like you, you only studied this
stuff and like history classes, school and shit.
You're back living in the era when there was an assassination
attempt on the on the ex president of the United States
of America and running favorite candidate of the next election,
recurrent election. It's a pretty scary thought when
you take a step back and think about it this way, right?
It is. I mean, I don't think we've seen
anything like this in the Western world.
If you like in our in our lifetimes, really have we like
something to. Reagan.
Reagan was, Yeah, I guess. I mean, you were born then.
Maybe you're. I don't think.
Reagan President? No, I think Reagan was before
me, right were. Born bro Yeah, but.
It was his second term, I think, right?
Bro Reagan was 81 to 89. I hope he was born.
In 89. I was born in 80.
Five but yeah, something like something to that extreme and
maybe had stuff in like other countries but Eastern Europe and
all that stuff, but like nothing or it's like, oh, the USA
presidential elections are like full on.
This wasn't just like a oh we heard a gunshot and everyone
went down and and Trump got evacuated.
This is a full on like shot at his head.
Look tilted his head. You saw the video when he
tilted? His head, yeah.
It's like it's mental and it's like you were literally like a
hairline away from just absolute chaos, which is which is mad to
think. I don't know, like it.
There's obviously like all these thoughts about whether it was
staged or was it real or for me it was real, I don't think.
It's I don't want to get into that.
Yeah, yeah, definitely real. I mean, yeah, but come on.
But it's just like whatever it is.
Like Wet Dream, right? No, no conspiracy theories.
Saturday you. Guys want to send the.
It was like an RSS feed of like queuing on crap on my on my
WhatsApp group on on Saturday. Like insane amounts of
conspiracy theories. Yeah, don't bring Cali on for
more right now. We're going to be we're going to
be put in the in the same basket as an Alex Jones show.
Exactly. If you're even slightly into
conspiracy theories like you, you, you've basically got the
next five years from, you know, like you.
Even text each other about like conspiracies.
I'm pretty sure, I'm sure, I'm sure they, they're really into
that stuff. Look, the question was like, not
whether they'd plan this or not. The question was like, who did
that? Right?
Like why was the reaction so slow?
On the, on the, on the, on the, on the Secret Service front and
everything. One thing's for sure is the
Secreto's fucking shit like that's I think we can all agree
without you, you you saw all these threats from like ex
snipers or ex like defense professionals and like dude,
this is like the tallest building closest to it and
there's nobody on it. You know what I mean?
So I don't want to get into the conspiracy side of things, but I
wanted to you know, the first reaction of crypto MFRS was
which coins are we buying and why?
This is good for my bags. And so I think that's it's
relevant to talk about on the show, 'cause you said the
counter argument is like, if it, you know, if the if, if, you
know, if the shot wasn't missed, the market would have looked
different this morning. And I think you're right, right,
Because the market responded the other way, you know, to Trump
standing up. And arguably, that's one of the
most iconic photo shots, photo like shots of, of this decade.
Iconic. Like the guy that shot that like
shot the shot of his life. I mean, this is this is
absolutely like this is next level.
The immediate reaction though on on the market, the first thing I
opened was this to see how the qualifier, I mean, Tyler did.
He would have loved that on the show this morning.
I mean, the immediate reaction was this.
It was like a 30% candle on Trump coin.
This front, literally the day before you and I were talking
about buying Trump, and I was like, I can't be bothered to
like, spend this money on blast. I'm too lazy to do it.
And I just didn't do it. And I saw that I was like, damn.
It was either the day before OV or or the same morning.
You and I were like, damn, Like OK, we're.
It was literally the day before it was like, yeah, it was
trading at like 5 or something like 5.5 or something like that.
Too, That's why we're like, OK, well, what are the ETH corns
that are going to turbo pump? Obviously mug.
We can't get more bullish and we already are a mug and it's like,
well, what else, right, Like what else?
Like, OK, we get it. Pepe mug, Pepe Mark, what else
will Trump, right? And then obviously I didn't make
a move, though I bought quite a significant amount of more on
Thursday night instead of Trump, which pretty much worked out in
my favor. But it's, you know, mug up 30%
and then you have width moving like .2%.
So it's not bad. That's the meme.
Aside from that, though, looks like corns are doing pretty
good. I mean, Ovi kind of want to ask
you here, how do you feel about ETF week this week?
I mean, you are you're a big ETH guy here.
It's this is the week Nick Jurassi went, you know, made a
call. He doesn't usually make those
calls, but he said I'm making the call.
This is the ETF week. He posted that.
How do you feel about that given that last week?
Was that what the biggest week for Bitcoin or one of them
billion dollars in inflows? What's your outlook this week
given ETF and what do you think is going to happen?
Yeah, first, I really like Nate Dressy a lot.
I compared to some of the other Bloomberg analysts and
commentators, he doesn't really like hedge his commentary.
He's just like, I think we're going to get an ETF this week.
I'm sticking my neck out and saying that.
He also said I think the ETF gets approved when everyone else
didn't. So he's pretty, you know, like
he's not always going to be right, obviously, but at least
he, you know, presents a real opinion and A and a real view.
And so his view is that we see something this week.
His reasoning is that all the the the hurdles have now been
crossed and there's no reason why there should be any delay
given all the filings we saw at the end of last week.
So fingers crossed, hopefully we see it this week.
There hasn't again, there's been not a huge amount of
communication from the SEC. And remember, this is another
thing that Nate said. Remember how they cocked it up
last time? Remember how there was a fake
the SEC account got hacked and there was like a fake tweet
about it being approved and stuff like they've obviously
come under the kosh a lot for that and they've had to re
evaluate the way they communicate these things to the
market. So I think they're very light on
communication until things are absolutely done.
And even then, I think they'll continue to be light.
So it's one of those things like we're not going to see any of
the telltale signs that we saw for Bitcoin, but then one day
it's going to be like, cool, this is all done.
We're good to go, we're good to roll out.
So his view is that we see it this week.
I'm not really sure, you know, I don't have a strong view as to
whether it's this week or next week, but it does feel like it's
very, very soon. This week would be good timing
given the market bounce and given all the Germany Bitcoin
saying that's all been done and the technical overhand that's
that we've passed. So it feels like the momentum
would be on our side for it to come this week and then we'll
see. So.
Yeah. Well, how do you feel about the
the inflows into the into the ECTFS?
You know, on the bear side, they were like, oh, look at what
happened to Bitcoin. It's become institutional coin.
And you know, there was a there was remember it, it was a
southern news event in the end. And then obviously then we saw
quite a huge rise back to all time high within a couple weeks.
How do you feel about the the ETH inflows?
Personally speaking, I think everybody's wrong because
consensus said it's going to be low.
So therefore I'll take the other side.
But what do you, what do you? Yeah.
I think everyone says look what happened to Bitcoin ETF, it's
like OK, but Bitcoin moved from 40K to 63K after the 70K after
the ETF. So it's had a positive impact on
the price. Sure that the technicals, the
dynamics of the market changed, but I think overall it's been
positive for it. And so I think you could and
should see a similar thing for ETH.
And I think we run it back on Earth, to be honest with you.
Like maybe initially we'll see whether the inflows are good or
bad. Like even for Bitcoin, the
initial inflows weren't insane, they weren't incredible.
They were just like decent, but they weren't like blow out, blow
out, blow out numbers. I think I think it was about two
billion on the first day across all the ETFs.
And people were hoping that Black Rock alone would be close
to that magnitude. So it's one of those things
where like you maybe don't see the initial impact on day one,
but as the inflows build up and as supply gets taken off the
market, it does it all adds up. And it it does end up being
positive. And I think it will be positive
for ETH. And the big thing there for me
is just like it's clear that Black Rock is supportive and,
and bullish on ETH to have their $100 million tokenized fund on
Ethereum. Larry Fink has publicly stated
in interviews that he likes Ethereum.
So I think they'll be pitching it pretty hard.
And remember, just as, as we saw with Bitcoin, these guys are
incentivized to go out there and sell this thing because the fees
they're making us so much larger and, and bigger than they are on
any, any of their other ETF products.
So they're going to be saying this thing like mad.
And the other thing is like, if you're a normie and you saw the
move from Bitcoin ETFs from like whatever 40K to 70K, you're
like, damn, I missed that. But now you may feel like you
have the chance to run it back on ETH.
It's like, cool, I missed the move on Bitcoin.
Can I do the same move on ETH? And you can bet that all the ETF
funds selling the stuff we're going to be making, the argument
they'll be thinking about this is what happened with Bitcoin.
We're expecting maybe not the same amount of flows on Earth,
but the market cap of eats is a lot lower than the market cap
Bitcoin. And this could be a should be a
high beta version of that. So I agree, I think the
expectations for for flows are actually pretty low.
I actually even think the flows will be not that great either.
But everyone thinks that. And I think the surprise is not
really to the downside. I think the surprise is to the
upside. No, I I totally agree with you.
I mean here, if you look on AI was just on the map.
This is where the Bitcoin TF was approved and like you see Jan
10th pump, then this is this is this dump that people are like,
Oh my God, it's sell the news that you're laughing at right
now. And this is what it went shortly
after. You know what I mean?
Like look at that. This was approval.
This was a slight dump after it and because you know there was
GBTC like being so like crazy everyday and then this is what
came shortly after. Since then and this is a post
that just was came out during the show July 15th update.
This is how much Bitcoin have been added by the ETFs.
BlackRock has required 316,000 bitcoins.
Yeah, I mean this is BlackRock. The the year to date flows on
Bitcoin ETFs I think have now surpassed you have the
montesens. Right, the year to date.
Yeah. And that's the high, that's the
that's the year to date high. So we're at the highs for that.
And I know we've spoken a lot about like basis trading and all
these flows, net increases in Bitcoin risk.
I do think the last week was because the basis was like
around 10% or below. So it's not it's materially less
attractive level for funds to put on the base of trade than it
has been. And if anything, I think some
guys have probably been unwinding like what I've heard
from various people as if it goes below sub 10%, people start
unwinding it. So we saw a billion dollars of
inflows into Bitcoin ETS last week.
And I think in my opinion, the vast majority of that, if not
even all of it really when that increases in risk.
And I bet you anything, all these guys like Fidelity,
BlackRock, etcetera, Arc like to their clients, you guys should
buy this. Germany's selling, they're
almost out. They're going to be done this
week. This is a good dip to buy.
That was the story and I think we saw, you know, Bitcoin move
out of Germany into ETFs. Is it I think is what I saw and
also Bitcoin move out of chartists into boomers.
Yeah, but these people have like probably $1,000,000 to their
name. So it's not much Bitcoin.
But I'm just saying like, you know, a lot of people who chart,
you know, they, they not usually the biggest, the biggest bag
holders. I think, I think people miss
misunderstand. I think people give too much
power to CT on the market like the little micro pocket that CTS
towards Like what the actual market like their their
position. Yeah, see, like you think if
you, if you log into Twitter a lot of levers, CT is the be all
end all, but it's a tiny part of the market really.
It's a lot of leveraged coins and ownership too, so they don't
really own it. It's notional.
It's like, oh, I have $10 million worth of Ethereum.
No, motherfucker, you're long. 10 million notional with your
last million at 10 X or short. That is, but anyways, like
that's for a big part, but that's obviously mean all of
them. And there's a lot of big chats
on here and and but don't if you study that, like, and you, you
texted me this morning, you're like, I'm glad you finally
started realizing how stupid some people are.
It's because, you know, I I'm starting to really see these
patterns. I'm like, dude, like, come on,
stop flip flopping, you know, like stand on game or something,
you know, try to try to try to try to have like, you know, some
conviction and believe in it. And that I thought about this a
lot lately. Always like, why do we were Max
bullish going to this new year or Max bullish in Q1?
What you're going to let the summer dip like just make like
lose your convictions? What happened to the cycles?
What happens to those 500 days or six?
I forgot the days, 300 days for the post.
What is it after the having what happened to all these things
that we talk about all the time and all of a sudden what a la
Pubel like it goes to trash and we forget and that doesn't apply
anymore. What happens to the fact that
NASDAQ is hitting all time highs every morning?
So the American economy is roaring Roaring 20s.
Roaring 20s. Roaring 20s.
Yeah, exactly. It's it's hot.
So, so this this 58185 thousand Bitcoin owned by ATS right now.
So I'm excited. What's what did you think?
Is there an expectation for the date of the ITF approval for for
not approval but for the the live for it to go live?
This could be this week, I think could be, it could be this week
is what they're saying. Like I think they're at the
final approval stage and then, you know, basically good to go
live so. OK.
I guess, I guess we'll see. But we're we're definitely work
waiting on that. And by default, I mean, I saw
your tweet that you wrote about, you know how you think this
thing's going to play out here. You said ETS ETF approval, ETC
is going to outperform with of course it's it's it's betas.
I mean, how we looking there Pepe mog I've been looking for
other stuff, but I'm just like I can't I just every time there's
like any ETH move, like Mark is top 100 in terms of volume and
you're just like fuck. Yeah.
I mean that's been obviously been a pretty strong coin I
think in the last few weeks on the down moves.
It didn't really move much lower and the up moves just moving a
lot higher. So you know it's at almost $800
million market cap now. It's currently sitting at all
time highs. So I think that seems to have
proven itself as like maybe the the number one coin on on ETH
right now. Pepe is doing well as well, but
it's definitely lagged. It's been a bit weaker.
Like Pepe and WEF seem to, for whatever reason, have had some
form of selling. I think maybe larger holders are
taking profits there. Maybe you have people who are
who hold both who are taking profits there.
So I do think we saw a lot of like unwinding of, you know,
this kind of like meme coin vaporware ish type risk, which
could really go to 0 if you have like a bear market, but on the
other hand could rally a lot more if you if this bull
persists. So there's something good bases.
I really thought blast would be higher.
It hasn't really moved that much.
But yeah, I thought blast could have been a good one because
it's a new token you had. You should presumably you've had
a large amount of the air drop selling that's already happened
right now, but that hasn't really bounced as much as I
expected it to. But still have my eye on that.
Like it's, it's down about 4050% I think still from when it
launched. So I think that could be
interesting. But it's not.
It's I I thought. I thought it felt bottomed out.
We talked about this. Yeah.
I mean I. Think it's, it feels like it's
bottomed, but it hasn't. At the same time it hasn't like
really bounced. Yeah, like Ether's moved up a
lot. Ether's moved up like 15% in the
last couple two or three days and Blast is up.
I guess it's probably up a similar amount, but you'd expect
it to be up more. The other L twos, they just
don't seem to really be catching a bit either.
So it doesn't feel like that's where the beta is controversial,
but NFTS, Ethereum NFTS, I I reckon you can see a bit of a
come back there. You know I'm not.
I'm not. I agree with you actually.
It's the 1st. It's the first time in a few
years, I guess technically speaking, that I've felt a bit
more constructive on Ethereum NFTS.
Like I don't know which one. There's obviously so many
different projects, but I do think you could see some some
stuff do well there in my opinion.
What do you I put this poll out this weekend.
There's two hours left to it. I just shared it for anyone who
wants to go in and and vote. But I said you believe there
will be another manic run on NFTS like in 2020.
One 2200 people voted, but 53% seem to think no.
Do you think there's going to be a comeback on NFT at some point
this cycle doesn't have to be this year.
Cycle ends probably late next year.
I don't think you necessarily see a manic run like you saw in
2021, but I do think you will see some stuff go to decent
levels. You know, like I think let's use
pudgy Penguins as an as an example as that's, you know, the
leading NFT right now on Ethereum, something like that.
I think could go back to like 30-40 fifty ETH.
I know Lucas said 200 ETH or whatever, but.
I think 50s for Penguins this cycle is something.
Insane. Yeah, which is what's that like
a 5X from where it is now? Yeah, it is.
Yeah, so it's not like a insane move in crypto mean coins
standards, but it does you know, at 50 ether and let's say ether
is at like 4 or 5K or whatever that's 250 KA Penguin like
that's that's a lot of money. So I do think you could see some
some stuff coming back there in, in my opinion.
What if it I I didn't realize I I haven't looked at all in the
wild, man. Yeah, I do Fidenza's like there
were cycle. 20th last week. 28th, yeah. 31, yeah, 31 right
now 31 is the floor, but hold on, that's not 31 E OK, I sell
it 31 E six hours ago. Me selling to Fidenza is to buy
whiff and selling there maybe one of the like all time all
time great rotations like that was pretty insane.
Is that one of the that's like that's like a Mando fucking
sweeping those apes at one time. The 72 eighths that you guys had
when he went like what, $1,000,000 on the floor then
yeah, I like 10 E. Was it 10 E 8th floor 5 E 5 EI
forgot? Yeah, it's like around 3 or 4 EI
think it was. Yeah, the great Mando sweep back
then that, you know, then you guys like cooked on that trade.
That's very similar scenes here with your whiff trade.
And you sold you, I know you have a ton of whiff, like your
moon bag is ridiculous, like your moon bag is.
It's like my whole portfolio, I'm kidding.
But but like, but like, but still like you ended up cooking
that they sold at the right time.
You know, mother fucker, when you started selling and you made
that tweet saying, oh, I took some mug off.
I took some whiff off myself. I was like maybe, just maybe
Farouk listen to OB. I didn't I.
Didn't I didn't sell because I was bearish, I sold because I
like wanted to take some profits and.
Well, you were really about to have a chat too.
Yeah. And like you know get some more,
get a bit more cash in. It just happened to have timed
out well with the market so. Bad.
That's so good. The funniest thing is I the only
reason why I sold for dentist is I didn't have access to my other
wallets and I had access at that time.
I would have just spent ether whatever, but it's like, oh I
actually sold for dens which which then went down about 60%.
So well whiff went up like 2000%.
So I really like it's the bag for the culture at some point.
I've I've been watching for dens because I do want to.
I do want to buy a couple back because I actually genuinely
like it as an. Artist you always love and
remember. Yeah, I remember.
Yeah, and I, I want to get the prints and stuff.
I just haven't got around to it. But like every time I look
they're lower. So maybe this is the.
Maybe that's a sign that I need to get back in.
Yeah, I feel like last week was really the low.
Like seven days ago we talked about on the show a Fedenza sold
for 28th and then another one for 22 back-to-back two weeks
ago and seven days ago. And then obviously last night it
seems like someone sold one for 31 eighth.
So the new floor is 31 eighth. But there's I think I think
there's going to be a point where like maybe not manic, but
there's going to be another huge run.
Like a lot of people like to say I had this conflict with Wiz
this weekend. He was like, I don't think so.
So he disagreed with me. He was like the manic run is on
meme coins this cycle versus NFTS and he's like, you kind of
feel it. You kind of sound like he didn't
mean nothing by the way, right? But he's like you sound like
when the D5 folks from 20, the run before that were saying it's
coming back, but then NFTS took over instead of D5, right?
And then BAYC minting a board ape, I'm pretty sure was the
best trade of last cycle, right? If you had, if you had, you
know, the typical minted, it held, it sold every air drop at
the top, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
There was like 300,000 percent or something like that.
So it's like the biggest turn. And so I wonder if he's right.
And I'm like, well, there's never going to be another manic
run. But actually feel like NF TS are
just like really easily adoptable thing for masses.
Meme coins are, but you kind of rally behind a contract address.
Very few coins might have to become culture coins.
Like MOG is the greatest example of a culture coin and it's a
real one. Like everyone claims are a
culture coin. They haven't been around for one
month yet, you know what I mean? So it's like, I think you really
have to go through like 43 back-to-back weeks of red
candles before becoming culture coin.
Fuck me, dude, that was crazy. So I don't know, we'll see.
But if my bet was that NFTS are going to see somewhat of a big
pump and you seem to think that you said not manic, but there's
going to be a rise in NFTS. Let's say Q1 Q 2:25.
There's a lot of 10 XS out there.
There's a lot of that there. So it's a it's a strong, you
know, nine O 59 is putting in predictions in my WhatsApp right
now. I think he's right, you know,
what do you think stats? Do you agree?
Do you agree on the 50s punk Penguins prediction?
Give me a thumbs up or thumbs down.
But what do you think about crypto punks?
What do you what do you when do you think punks, punk start
rallying again? I think with punks, and this is
true for maybe like some NFT collections, you should really
not underestimate how low the perceived free float or
something like this is where I think you can have very
aggressive moves in either direction.
And I do, I personally believe punks have bottomed.
I think punks will trend higher from here.
And I think you'll have a moment where people start to furrow in
because it just takes like couple of sweeps, takes a couple
of sweeps and suddenly like the prices up a lot.
And you know, this is not like NFT.
These NFT collections, remember, they're not like meme coins or
fungible tokens where you can just go come in and buy, you
know, buy a little bit of the token or buy a little bit of the
coin, just like buy this whole NFT, right?
And as soon as one gets taken off, you get more of this kind
of FOMO feeling of like, damn, someone got that one, I got this
one. It's.
Always like that. Yeah, that and that's that's
just like the way arts and collectibles trade not only in
digital format, but in physical format.
And they have done for a for a long time, since actually the,
you know, for centuries, probably humans have been
collecting things. So I just don't think that human
nature has disappeared. It's just not in vogue right
now. But I do believe it will come
back. And again, it's just like, you
know, I just don't, you know, maybe it's not crypto punks,
maybe it's not pudgy Penguins. Maybe it's a new project from
new collection. Maybe it's not an Ethereum.
You know, we've already had it to an extent with Ordinals.
You know, we've already had that that run.
So maybe it's, it comes in a different format.
But I do think we'll see it back.
And I don't know, part of me just thinks if you have a good,
if you have good infos into the PTF and if it's popular again
and people looking for good point exposure, I think you can
see the NFC narrative come. Back if the whole like
tokenization of all things that Larry Fink is driving in terms
of narrative works out. I mean last week over there was
Goldman Sachs that's that's getting involved in the
tokenization. I don't know if you saw that,
that headline as well. So there's, there's a lot of, of
people getting involved into the, they're launching 3
tokenization projects. So there's a lot of, there's a
lot of the, the, the tokenization narrative that is
around Ethereum that, you know, Larry Fink and Core are, are
driving is, is or they're not driving.
They're catching up on it because that's existed for long
before, right? But you know, it's, it could
really send a lot of the assets on Ethereum moving very heavily.
The other runner that's going to happen on NFT is inevitable.
Is is milady? I mean, you're going to, I
wouldn't be surprised if you see $100,000 floor in the ladies at
some point of cycle. Yeah, I mean, again, that's
another one of those things. Just it just has a very like
sticky holder base has this weird cult behind it.
Yeah, it's great. It's.
Not predicate. The value of it is not
predicated on a team going out there executing a road map.
It's just like the ladies remedio, like all that stuff.
Yeah, actually, you put in a lady.
I forgot. I forgot the end one.
Which one you have? I have one too, I love mine.
I have like a floor my lady, but I have a niqab remedia.
Oh, you still have that. I love that.
I remember when you went full like mug all in.
It was like 1 morning right, You bought just like my ladies
Niqabis mog and you're like, fuck it, I'll never forget that.
I mean that is pretty well. That is pretty well.
Surely you're one of those guys that has like had the best cycle
thus far. So we're knock on wood for that
to continue and and and and I'm excited to see the headlines of
the ECTF come out this week. But anyways, I think we've gone
around the blog pretty well. Ovie How's how's fatherhood?
It's good. It's the best.
It's it's a lot of fun. It's, you know, the thing that I
found most in the last couple of weeks is like, it's very hard to
like organize and plan things. It's like everyone's like, oh,
have you had like so much time on Twitter?
It's like, yeah, but like, I don't, you just never know when
you need to be, like, on call to do something.
Yeah, yeah. Hopefully as she gets older I
can get a bit more of a routine. Yeah, look at that, already
forcing the poor little baby to watch the English football team.
She loved it. She was.
She was full on watching it. I love that.
Yeah. Daddy's.
Girl daddy's girl for sure. I love that.
That is so cute. I'm pretty sure it's a photo of
my mom and me like in front of France match like similar to
that. I I love that photo.
I thought it was super cute. Absolutely love it.
So congratulations, Ovie. And and that was a good one.
Listen, we'll pick a winner real quick here.
Just tell me when to stop. We'll pick just a winner here
for that's following stop. All right here.
So Kama kamikaze. Oh, I oh, I know you listen to
the show every morning. So kamikaze here for for Bernie
in the back end, $100. Congratulations, you win 100
bucks entrepreneur then web two web three board APR club MAYC,
let's go. Well, you win 100 bucks and you
retweet That's perfect. You retweet all the shows you
absolutely love to see come back.
Kazi, you win 100 bucks for this in the show tomorrow morning,
Robit Lube box pins. We are so back.
You obviously love to see it. Ovie.
Thank you for coming in last minute.
That was a lot of fun. I'm glad we got to talk all
things ETFs crypto market, yada yada.
And with that with that with that, we'll see y'all tomorrow
morning, 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time for the episode of
FOMO hour on rock radio. Let's go.