TMDM everyone. It is the show without faroque
and OSF. Today I have brought in two.
I would say exceptional. Jesus Christ, it is loud.
Faroke literally shouts the hell out of this team at the start.
Yeah, I brought in two incredible guests to fill in for
OSF and Faroque. Today.
It's a slightly different show. I brought in Cows, who's been on
this show a few times before. He's one of the Co founders of
Canary. Labs.
Morning. Morning.
And Spencer well known for being well one of the best NFC traders
in the market right now and now I don't know also does some Co
hosting of of morning radio shows.
So I thought you'd be you'd be perfect for it.
Good to have you both. Thanks for having me.
Good to see you. I you know, you said I I I
really fixated on you said one of the best NFT traders right
now because you know you guys are the original best NFT
traders and back in the day there's no way I could compete.
But now that you've moved on to shit coins and all sorts of
other stuff, you know you've retired from that mantle and
you're happy to pass it along. Is that was that?
Was that the energy I was picking up on here?
Maybe. Maybe I think you you you
definitely dabble in a few different things.
Let's be honest, the funds, the fund seems to be doing a bit
more than just NFTSI think you're going to, you're going to
surpass us at some stage, who knows.
And I think it's a good thing to have it because it's been, we
haven't had the show for the last couple of days.
We left and everything was doing OK and then it seemingly got a
little bit worse over the last 48 hours.
Definitely not a great market to open up with today.
Maybe we can just go through what we think, what we think
the, the fun things are happening.
Obviously meme coins, NFTS, airdrops, lots of stuff still
happening over the last 48 hours and you know a little bit of
red. I still think we're going to
come out of it the other side, but we're going to go in how we
normally do this show. So we're going to go through the
kind of the top five main things that's been going on going on in
the market and then we'll then we'll go from there.
The, I think the first thing to say is just how weak the
market's been. Like this is probably the
weakest, weakest a few days that we've seen for months really
right. Like I don't think I can really
remember the period where it's slightly.
It felt like we have that fear back.
I was seeing today that Bitcoin has been up for seven
consecutive straight months. And I think this is the first
time where it's felt like oh you know it could we could take a
little bit of a dip. How you two both feeling about
it? I mean, look like, I think that
like obviously price is going down, right.
I think we saw some fear this weekend, but it's also kind of
healthy. And I think like one thing that
is really a tough mind shift for a lot of people on CT is like CT
has no impact on the narrative anymore on Bitcoin.
Like it didn't at towards the end of last cycle, right.
We saw institutions come in then, like all the institutions
left during the bear market. And it's suddenly, like CT
hadn't mattered again. But like now, like, like there
is a game being played that you are not Privy to, right?
And like, I mean that as in, like you as in the listener.
But you as in us as well as, like nobody in crypto is playing
the level of a game that like the real players that have
stepped in are playing, right? And I think one thing that I
wonder is like what degree of what we see going on right now
is like true retail outflows, right?
So obviously we had inflow, inflow, inflow, inflow, big
outflow, right? But like is this?
There's two ways I think you can view it.
First is, is like Bitcoin went down in price.
Did people who needed some of their retirement account into
Bitcoin get scared and are pulling it out or did someone
very smartly like put a bunch of Bitcoin?
Like if I if I was a big institution and I with the ETF
coming right and I have managed an institution but not like a a
trillions of dollars asset manager, right.
It feels very tempting to have put a bunch of money into the
ETF and then waited till there was this whatever, lots of hyper
on big inflows, shorted it and then just pulled a bunch out
like that. Seems like a really obvious
trade. So it's what we'll have to see,
right? Is like, I could see a world
where it's just like whenever Bitcoin goes up, there's
inflows, whenever Bitcoin goes down, there's outflows.
Like that seems reasonable to me based on like the assumption
that it is retail driven. I could also see a world where
we see like shenanigans that make almost no sense unless you
assume there's one very large actor like doing them right.
I don't think we've conclusively figured out which of those two
it is. And I I'm curious what you guys
might think would be indicators to look at, but it's just not
obvious to me at all what's going on at the level of the
ETFs, right. My view has just been like,
obviously the Bitcoin ETF has been that bullish and so like,
I'm mostly like we're at a point in that arc where I just don't
know what's going on, right? And I don't think it's easy to
derive what's going on. Whereas like a big, a more
interesting like bet you can make is like will there be an
Etherium ETF? Is an interesting bet.
Yeah. Look, I think I agree with you.
It feels like we get the, we get the information delayed like the
the, the price moves and then we find out there's been an
outflow. So you can you always kind of
play and catch up with the ETF data from a from a day-to-day
basis. It does feel as though the real
thing that's happened is that the the greyscale outflows have
picked up again. Interestingly, Genesis looks
like they settled with Gemini to pay customers.
A lot of people have said again they had a big CBTC position
here and that's caused a lot of the the outflows in order to pay
that settlement and that may again slow.
I think Eric Balkunis who's like the main Bloomberg analyst was
pointing to that the Black Rock inflows had slowed but then they
did pick up again decently again yesterday.
So I don't know if it was necessarily anything more than
just this could be temporary. He the the back the Bloomberg
analyst seemed to point to that. But this is definitely something
to be aware of like I think it's very, very difficult to to I
don't know predict this market but if these outflows continue I
think we could go, you could still go a decent amount lower.
You are seeing like more stable coins being minted like the
stable coin supply is like up only at this stage.
So there's clearly money coming in which isn't just the the ETFs
but this has definitely been the main narrative at least for the
last two months. So I'd I'd definitely be be
aware of that. I don't think we're going to
like crash down, but but I yeah and obviously we have the
halving in just in just a few weeks which I think could lead
to more institutional inflows ahead of that.
But it's yeah, it's it's definitely a difficult one to
predict and I agree with you, it's maybe not even one that you
want to predict too much because you're always going to be behind
the time. It's better to play for, for
other things. What do you think, Ben, like how
you see in the market right now? I think I agree with both of
you. You're always like the guys who
are actually trading these flows, have the info 1st and
either hedge it or take the other side of it.
So you're always playing catch up.
But similarly I don't I think that narrative is like done like
the narrative of everybody just waiting for that inflow number
and then it trading up or down. I feel like that's I feel like
we're moving past that. I think interactive will start
to form around the halving around like some form of supply
crisis for Bitcoin. And yeah, once, especially once
minus selling has slowed down. I think that you know there
needs to be this new narrative. We can't focus on what was the
narrative of the past like 3 months for the for the rest of
the year. So I think people should be like
looking to the next thing rather than like focusing on the thing
that's happening right now, IE like oh today was inflow, today
was outflow, etcetera. I think the it's this happens in
any financial market like the people with the most volume.
The reason the more volume you get, the more information you
get about who's buying and selling and that's kind of the
the benefit and some of the payment of being a market maker
because then you're more informed and you can take better
positions and just know where the market's going in real time.
And then everybody else is acting on a delay of, you know
if you're super, super connected, you're acting on a
delay of like 10 minutes. And if you're only log into your
Coinbase world today, it's a delay of like whatever 12 hours.
So and everybody is on at a different point on that
spectrum. But I think what's smarter is,
yeah, to look forward rather than like in that 12 hour delay
and think what's what's happening next.
I do think harbouring is strong narrative.
I don't know whether that outperformed or underperformed
expectations to be honest. Everybody has got that like four
cycle chart of what happens around the harbouring every time
and it feels like a kind of consensus view.
But it's hard to argue with like the numbers around if demand is
there, which is helped by these ETFs, and supply does dwindle,
then everybody knows what happens.
Yeah, I agree with you. The halving is kind of a known,
known, and I don't really like those overly simplistic graphs.
It's like, oh, it happened if this is what happened last
halving. So it's going to happen this
time when your data set is whatever it is, like four or
five times, like it's not really that there.
Wasn't an ETF like there wasn't this thing that creates also
like and this is anything too is is like like you know info
outflow you guys talk about, but like it's all just GBTC
unwinding right? Like, like there there's a
couple of moments where there's other outflows.
And I think those are really interesting because like, at
least for me, right? Like, like, I don't know about
you guys, but like, I own some of these ETFs in like, a Roth
IRA that just, like, it's an easier way to buy them, right?
And that's not a thing that I look at.
And I think like, that's the bold thesis, right?
Is like what is the bold thesis of an ETF is like, yeah people
are literally just not going to look at these accounts, right.
That's why it's such I think a big fear monger thing when there
is outflows cause it's like whoa whoa, then if that's not the
thing that's going on like what's the thing that's going
on? And so like again like I would
look at on that graph that you had up before Mando, like what
are the couple of red that is not GBTC, right?
Like GBTC is just an unwinding of a bankruptcy thing.
Like this is not really related to the performance of it.
And so I I kind of agree with your point.
Like this shouldn't matter, but it like does like, why?
Why is it that we care so much about, like, clearly the
market's reacting these things. And and, you know, it's just
like, it's a weird, weird thing. And then, you know, we look at
the, the, the habiting coming up.
Obviously, this is a big narrative.
I think the question is what is the narrative after the
happening? Right.
And I can see two. I can see one really strong one.
It's like if we don't see the big dip after the habiting as we
had in the past, it's like that is a proof point that there's a
big structural change. Yeah.
So we have this. So we have like literally no
outflows from. When these all buying, it's just
different levels of inflows really.
Yeah, yeah. And you see like BTCL like has
one red day of 10 million, right?
Like, I'm curious what that is like that's something to look
at, right? Like what are the red days and
the others and there's there's not many, right?
And so if you just think of this as like, OK, like the GBTC
outflows like matter now, but like this is a fixed amount of
like what could outflow, right? Like there is not in the same
way a fixed amount of what could inflow if you assume the inflows
are legitimately like retirement accounts, right?
Like retirement accounts. Like, you might think, oh, like
GBTC has all this money, right? But like at the end of the day
retirement accounts have unlimited amounts of money
relative to whatever grayscale held at any point in the past.
Like, these are not the amount that you can outflow from
grayscale is orders of magnitude less than the amount that you
can inflow from retirement accounts.
Yeah, I think that's something to actually pick up on.
People will getting worried about how big this is.
They've already lost I think about 60% of their AUM.
So this is definitely going to be a slightly slowing or
diminishing. You would assume this would be
diminishing and it had been diminishing for a while.
It just then picked up because of this because of this Genesee
Genesis bankruptcy agreement with with Gemini.
So I think it's it's just something that you're going to
have to accept. I agree with you we we do kind
of need to search for a new narrative and I I, I I wondered
what that is. It felt like Solana being used
as was a narrative and I think will continue to be a medium
term narrative here. The ETF, interestingly the ETF,
we didn't have a show the last couple of days, but the picture
for ETF has has become a little bit more cloudy I would say for
for that we were already a little bit downbeat on that that
the possibility of that happening.
But there was reports, kind of unsurprising reports that the
SEC is going to try and subpoena a bunch of different companies
in the in the ecosystem and trying to label ether basically
as a security. I don't really know what that
means medium term. I think a lot of people you know
Ganz has been smashed around in the courts so far.
So it does seem slightly surprising that he's going to
try and go for it again, but he he may just be playing for time
here just before you know, the next election.
I would be unsurprised if that if that was the case.
But ETH actually hasn't performed that badly since then.
It's it's kind of been the outperformer out of ETH in
Solana, so I don't really know. Like maybe that?
Was poor, poor performance. And the court's probably helping
ETH. Everyone's like, oh wow, he's
taking ETH the court. Well, we're going to win that.
So it's probably like an upside risk if anything.
Yeah, I mean you, you just gotta look at it, right?
Like in like, it's gonna be something that plays out.
There's gonna be drama around it.
It's never gonna be linear. I think the people got super
bearish this weekend suddenly. But like, I don't we and crypto
are like, oh, Solana has all this volume, all this attention,
right? But like, the orders of
magnitude of Solana attention is like, it's retail attention,
right? Solana has this big challenge of
having been named in the Ripple lawsuit.
Like, how does it come back from that?
Like, is that a big enough bear? I think that's a bigger barrier
to an ETF. Like, I don't think we see
people talking about it. Also, like, I feel people
forget, like ETFs have been filed, like this is a thing
that's in motion, right? Like, and also like ETFs almost
never get rejected anyway, as we saw with the Bitcoin thing, like
everyone was talking about, like, it just seems so obvious
to me. It's like really they're going
to like, psyop you into thinking this isn't going to happen
again. Like everyone who was like, oh,
will the Bitcoin ETF not happen? Like, like, no, it can happen.
Like they they they never miss. They never get these things
rejected. Like why would why in the world
would the ET1 happen? And like maybe it goes up and
down, But like to me that is the strongest narrative after the
Bitcoin ETF narrative. And like especially with how
things have already played out, like I would be shocked to see
people like like the the the thing that's been solved now is
when Bitcoin ETF happened, everyone was like is this going
to be a real narrative? Are there really going to be
inflows, all this stuff, right. And like the answer is just
unequivocally yes. Like there are significant
meaningful inflows. There's meaningful buy pressure
on Bitcoin from the ETF. Like, I don't think that that's
a question that you can really debate anymore.
It's like this happened, like it, it exists, right.
And so now when you look at ETF, it's no longer a double edged
sword of like will it be approved and will it matter if
it's approved? It matters for sure.
Right now the question is just will it be approved, right.
And so I think we're even in a less uncertain place than we
were before on Bitcoin. I don't think it will be
approved at the next, the next approval, but I do think it will
be probably one of these cases where it gets rejected but under
a temporary. So it'll be sort of sort of like
this, like it will be resolved, resolved via some sort of court
case relatively quickly or at least over the next year.
And then we will probably get any PTF at some stage.
And so I don't necessarily think it's a, it'll be a bearish
rejection. I feel it'll be one of these
ones where you'll get a headline like ETTF said to be rejected
and then the reason will be pretty flimsy or easily fought
in a in a court of law and and then and then people will really
just see that as a path to it being accepted.
Very similar to like what happened with Bitcoin, right.
Everyone was waiting on the grayscale decision and then the
like a lot of the rally actually happened kind of H2 last year,
right, Just got on the expectation that it was going
to, it was going to happen. So I think we probably could get
a scenario scenario like that. But I agree with you like it's
it's if that does happen I think it's got a very good chance of
of getting one in the medium term.
The other interesting one that people got bullish about over
the last 24 hours was was Doge. Like Coinbase went to list Doge
with the CFTC right for Futures Trading and people were like,
well this could be a path to DOGE ETF.
Do you think a DOGE ETF could come before the ETF?
It's not unreasonable, right? Like, like like Doge doesn't
have staking is the thing that works for it, right?
Like when you actually see this with meme coins, right?
This is the whole slot of meme coins.
Things like meme coins are easier to list on exchanges
because they don't have people behind them.
There is an execution risk. They like all these other
things, right? So like you see, CEX is listing
DOGE, like, like, like meme coins much more aggressively
than anything else. And like, that's not random.
Like, there's a reason behind that.
It's because they're easier to list.
They have less risk of being security.
Like, maybe the ETF world also starts listing, you know, DOGE,
right? But genuine question here, Mando
Do you think if there was a DOGE ETF, is DOGE the ultimate
beneficiary of that? Or would other meme coins?
Now they see a path to being listed like is with the ultimate
beneficiary of a DOGE ETF. Yeah, I I when I saw that
headline, I do think that that meme coins in general would
would rally. But I agree with you.
I mean, I think we're quite way away from a DOGE ETF.
But I would agree with you that the path for a lot of these meme
coins may be simpler than a lot of L ones, for example, in terms
of being classed as a commodity or a security.
Like, it's very difficult to say that there's like a team behind
Doge who are like working to make it better.
Like it's just, I don't think it would pass many of the security
rules. And obviously it's also like a
fork of Bitcoin, right? So it has a slightly cleaner
cleaner path there in terms of like proof of stake versus proof
of work. So yeah, I I think you could get
a DOGE ETF. I genuinely do.
I I I don't know if it would be the next one.
I think a lot of people spoke about maybe you'll get a Ripple
ETF because they actually like basically won their court case
but who wants a Ripple ETF, let's be honest.
So I do think yeah you this one or ETF would be the most
interesting for me as as like the ones next.
Do we think they're important though the smaller ones like I
feel like the ETF is going to be so the ETF is to Bitcoin ETF as
silver ETF is to gold ETF like gold ETF is fucking huge.
Silver ETF is like a total market cap is like a 20th of the
size and nobody really says well some people do but very few
people be like oh I'm in the precious metal trades for the
for inflation hedge and you know I'm equally or I'm like market
cap weighted to gold, silver blah blah blah blah blah
platinum etcetera etcetera. Do you think, like I kind of
think that all of these things are just going to be non events
in a way? They I I agree that the I think
even the ETF analysts have been like yeah it's going to be ETH
is going to have a much smaller demand.
I mean the ETH futures ETFs have been much smaller as a as like a
traded asset class than than the Bitcoin futures ones as well.
So I agree with you it's it's diminishing, but it also just
sets it up for the future more than anything like you're you're
also accounting for like future demand here I think a little
bit. So what?
Does that mean? What does that mean exactly?
Right now the people who manage your pension funds are are
probably boomers, but like OK, like within time you could very
easily see, you know, these become more of an asset class
even for traditional finance. And with these rails in place,
it allows that to happen a lot easier I think.
And also like you got to think what are the most common and big
products in the financial industry, right, Are like and
they're increasingly like passively managed index funds,
right. And so once you have like a
Bitcoin ETH and DOGE, like I, I imagine you then have a Bitcoin
ETH DOGE product that has like weighted shares across those
ETFs. And like, like I think one of
the things, no, but I generally think this is a meaningful thing
is like you see how, how are financial institutions going to
package these products to their customers, right.
And I think a lot of the times you're in a package it as like
you in your diversified portfolio of everything which
we've picked. Right.
Like should have some weighted crypto basket, right.
And they really like to say weighted crypto basket even
though it's probably going to be mostly Bitcoin, right.
And like the the idea that they are doing some sort of like
wizardry and math that has selected for you the perfect
basket of exposure is like the thing they're pitching you on,
which obviously anyone who like knows anything knows is not the
case. Like why is it that like you
have SMP weighted the way you do in most of the SMP exposure that
like a bank will give you? It's just like they have chosen
this right? And so and and you're like, oh
like if you can sit down and have the guy be like just buy
Bitcoin, right? Like OK, whatever.
You can go figure that on your own.
But the bank's like, Oh no, we have all this knowledge.
We're picking and choosing the best, most performing, blah,
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And really they're just spot buying at a certain percentage.
And like we all know that's just like, you know, don't look at
the man behind the curtain kind of thing.
But I think like giving them more products to push from like
financial advisors could be a really interesting outcome here.
Yeah, they're all driven by fees.
I agree with that. Like they'll find a way to get
AUM for the ETF if they're going to get fees from it.
So it's. Probably what the silver, the
silver got, the guys who owned silver mines said.
They're like, yeah, man, our ETF is going to be big for the
future. You might be like I I I agree
with you to a certain extent, like.
The whole thing will grow, but like, it'll be like Highlander.
There can only be one. Like Bitcoin is the daddy and
it's going to take like gross amount of market share and all
of the other ones it will be. I just don't know if they'll be
like price, like it won't drive the price in the same way that
the ETF narrative has on Bitcoin.
Or or it might not. I think, I think that's fair.
I think that's the thing that is fair.
The other thing that we had over the last 24 hours was was kind
of a lot of positive centre around Coinbase.
The first one was this BlackRock fund, which is which has been
launched on on ETH. I think that was a partnership
with Coinbase there. Now Blackrock's now got its own
stable coin. Guys like you can invest, it has
yield. I think they're investing in
Treasuries on the other end, which is kind of a weird because
it came out on the same day that Gensler was basically going
after ETH as a security. Blackrock's just launching a
fund on ETH and then we had a bit of a base season which which
seemingly lasted for about 24 hours and then and then all kind
of died. Like what do you, what do you
think about Bass as a the memes? I have to say the memes are
they're kind of mid as as a like a meme.
Like I think it's like Brett is the main meme.
They're not even really memes. They're just like names.
It was a great tweet, which is like the memes on on bass
literally look like they've been developed by like an office full
of like 40 year old boomers like on purpose and you're just like,
yeah, that that hits home. That hits the.
I think like with base, right? Like I mean I I'm just
optimistic about like what the role of base is in the
ecosystem. But like it's exactly that.
I think it's like on the nose, right.
It's like yes, we are a bunch of like boomers who got together
and like we are doing the boomer thing for you.
And like so much of what is happening that is positive for
crypto is due to Coinbase like being the champion of crypto in
the regulatory world that like I I will take mid memes if it's
exceptional to me is that like it is mid for the same reason
that Coinbase is winning the lawsuits so like.
The same lawyers probably thinking up the fucking ring.
Yeah, yeah, dude. I agree with everything you
said, but I think you should never settle for anything less
than absolute excellence when it comes to memes.
But there you go. I have to say, if Brett gets to
like multiple billions or different, like what have we
done here? Like, like memes are very hard
to do on purpose. I feel like if you're like, holy
shit, people are making a ton of money on memes, let's make one
in the 20 in the next 24 hours and make a ton of money.
Like, that's just not a good business model.
Like memes kind of erupt organically and because
something happens out there that the community rallies around.
But it's it's just, it feels like the type of thing that the
harder you try, the worse you are.
And I feel like we're at that stage of the meme coin cycle.
We're like, we're very much like buyer beware, I think, of any of
these things because someone's trying to take your money.
Oh yeah, for sure. I mean, I agree with what I
agree with that sentiment. I do feel as though the memes on
Solana, they just go through new matters.
Like every day there's like 5 different ones a day, whereas
some of the other coins are. It is a bit more like stable,
like oh, you buy the first old coin of the of the original
owner and that's what it is. Like Solana, it's like there's a
new thing each week. There's been some rogue ones
over the last 48 hours. But it's it's definitely feels
like we we go we speed run through different messes I.
Feel like even Solana though, like, I mean, I guess Boehm was
a later one that felt like it was a little bit more in the OK,
let's create a meme coin stage. But even the like, I feel like
the stuff that has a potential to show longevity is still like
bonk and whiff and like, yeah, maybe bums in there, but the
stuff that kind of happened a bit early on, you know, when it
was still uncertain. Yeah, yeah.
I even saw that the Avalanche is going to be paying $1 million to
LP's for its for its meme coin. Avalanche is going pretty deep
in trying to get meme coins on its on its ecosystem.
I don't know if this is going to work but.
I do want to go back to one thing though, because I have
been more bearish on this on this EDTF and it sounds like
Spencer is still giga bullish and the person who is going to
make the decision appears to be waging war against it.
Like and that to me feels like I I don't know.
I'm like we've just had this massive rally on the back of
like potential ETF influence and the person who is going to be
making the decision is current like in the process of waging
war. Like I feel like that's one side
and it sounds like Spencer's view here is that what BlackRock
has never submitted an application that got rejected.
So this will get accepted and I feel like I'm not sure how those
they don't feel necessarily contradictory, but I don't know.
I I I've like kind of I I I have been surprised.
I was surprised that EVE got back to 3500 in the face of what
felt like pretty damn bearish news against the single bull
case that has been really driving that asset for for the
past three months. It had, it had to be fair and I
think Spencer I think would even agree like this is a non
consensus view. It is consensus now that it's
not going to happen. I think Poly market has like
2030% chance, chance of it happening, but a lot of it, a
lot of the price it had underperformed for a while right
like Sol ETH moved unbelievably just as that that those
predictions started to nose dive right and then once it now I
don't know let me check Poly market now on the ETF but I
imagine it's it's probably even lower than that right now.
I think that's a good bet at that level.
I like that price on Polymarket. Probably, but like this this is
the thing too. Is is like 22?
Percent chance that they're predicting it right now.
By May. By May.
By May 31st. Which is the OK?
Bad bet. Bad bet.
But like this is The thing is like, I think that we're talking
about different things here. Like one view of mine is that I
think there will for sure in the next like several units of time
we're talking like one to four year time horizon be an ETF
right now. The contrarian view and I don't
think that that's super contrarian, right.
The contrarian view is more like when not if it's going to
happen. And I think like the contrarian
view of I think it is actually pretty imminent is like not
super unreasonable but also not like 100% view, right.
I just think that, like, it is healthier for that to not be
priced in, like the opportunity for there to be a strong rally
because everyone thought it wasn't going to happen, right?
Like one thing that I know about politics and one thing that I
think is true of like seeing about people who are in politics
who are involved in government is like you kind of have to take
what they say with a grain of salt a lot of time.
Because often times like they're doing it for one reason or
another. They want to look like they
deliberated hard about it or they want to look like they're
tough on something before it goes through.
Like, you don't actually know, right?
Like like Genzer was super anti Bitcoin, right, Like for a
period of time and then was the swing vote to like make it
happen. So I don't think like it.
I guess Sam what you're an empty stats.
What you're saying is like, like, I I I like, oh, he's super
bearish, like he's gonna fight it hard.
I mean, a, he hasn't won a single fight he's gotten into
recently, so bullish. B Like, maybe he's just saying
stuff I don't know, like. I don't think he's gonna win.
I don't think he was ever that bearish on Bitcoin though.
I like, I like, I just don't remember his terminology and and
like the wars he was fighting leveling against like what he's
doing right now against Heath. Like I don't remember what
you're talking about. If you're saying he was really
bearish on Bitcoin, certainly not in like the year running up
to the ETF. And I'm not saying he's going to
win. I'm just saying he doesn't seem
like the guy who's going to vote yes.
So I agree. What I agree with Spencer here
is it's I think it's a when not if.
I think, I think this is going to happen.
It's more when my view is it doesn't happen in in May and
there is some posturing into probably into the election.
But after that I just I think they'll probably lose another
couple of cases here and it's just going to be like a a
complete disaster for him. It is interesting that that
there is some incentive here like Grayscale obviously wanted
to fight. I mean Bitcoin ECF went through
because of Grayscale right. They they actually fought in the
courts and they won won that ruling.
I wonder who will be the one that fights the SEC here like
who takes them to court. Will it be BlackRock or will it
be because Grayscale's you know Grayscale's going through a
world right now like it's it's it's you know losing all its
funds and and Genesis going through bankruptcy and DCGS.
You know Barry's about to go into jail like it's it's a
disaster over there. So who is the one that takes
them to court over this? If it does get rejected, I think
it's. I don't think it matters.
I honestly don't think it matters.
All that matters is that BlackRock and Larry Fink are
like the biggest donor to the Democrats, or like one of the
biggest. Whatever he wants to happen will
happen. Like, that's how American
politics works, isn't it? Basically, you don't have to
play the play. Do you think it does happen?
Or I'm a big maybe not by May, but like, it doesn't matter
who's takes it to court. It doesn't matter.
Like Gary takes his orders from somebody and that somebody is
funded by Larry Fink. But some people have said that
they think that they will they they can fight it because no one
is there to like basically take them to court.
Who, who someone? Basically I think someone in the
ETH ETH community will probably have to like fund this court
case themselves in some sort of way.
Whereas before with Jenna, with you know DCG, it made a lot of
sense. They had like 20 billion plus
Bitcoin and they wanted to convert it to an ETF.
It made a lot of sense. There was no one with that in
crazed economic incentive to actually take the SEC to court
here. So that is one thing that does
does have to be resolved like who is that person?
Who is going to. And I'm not saying it won't
happen. I'm just I'm just interested to
see who it's actually going to be like somebody's going to come
in and and basically be like hey yeah, we're going to, we're
going to take you to court, take you to court.
And I don't, I don't think it's going to be BlackRock.
I don't think it's going to be one of like the main trad fire
ETF providers and I don't think it's going to be grayscale.
So it's going to have to be somebody kind of rogue here
coming in and and decided to take, take, take them to court
on this, which I think I think is going to be interesting.
Is the view that the Ethereum Foundation won't be that person
or entity or? Well, the Ethereum Foundation I
I feel like it shouldn't be them.
I don't know if it should be them like like.
I I don't what is the trial that they're waging?
And is that you have declared us a security or you have not given
us an ETF and we deserve one? What is the trial?
That's the thing, like the ETH is not asking for this ETF, it's
the ETF providers that are asking for the ETF.
So it's it'll have to be basically an ETF provider who is
incentivised enough to want to to to do this.
And then I don't know if the ETH foundation should be the one,
like funding that or not like it.
It just seems, it seems like an like, I don't know, someone's
going to have to resolve that, someone's going to do that.
I agree, right. Like like like the the part of
the argument here is that ETH is not super centralized, right.
And the existence of the Ethereum Foundation is like the
counter argument to that. So if the entity that is funding
it is the thing that you're trying to argue is not the
centralized thing. Like I probably shouldn't, no
couldn't fund it through like shadowier means.
Yeah. But like who's in the face of it
is kind of your point. I know, Amanda, what about you?
What would you would you take the SEC to court for us?
You're going to be our champion. Take all your meme coin money,
take that good wreck guy funds and just plow it into, you know,
the good fight with Gary. Yeah we're taking up dog with
hat profits to take on Gary. I think it should be like I
think it should be DC investor. I think that guy just lives and
breathes the ETF every single day he needs to he needs to come
in and and rally some troops. But yeah maybe ARK maybe ARK
would do it like if they were funded in the by the right
person maybe they'd take him to court like I can imagine them
that them being them more like crypto specific but this is you
know it's not just going to court this is a bit of a war
like VCG basically really pissed off the SEC when it when it did
it. So if you're going to it's not
going to be BlackRock or like I don't know Franklin Templeton
that does this. It's going to be someone a
little bit random, I think, who who decides to to take the court
next? It can be like when Peter Thiel
financed the Hulk Hogan lawsuit to get back at Gawkin.
News like doesn't have to be the person who's incentivised.
I was thinking the same thing. Yeah, it's exactly the same as
that. It.
Is anyway. So yeah, it's been weird.
Ethan's been bouncing even after that headline.
And I guess Solana, Solana activity is still really high,
less money. It feels like being made, that's
for certain. A lot of pre sales have just
Insta zeroed and I don't know there's there's blood on the
streets in certain in certain places there but there's still
still unbelievable volumes going through.
So and the only real other story in in I would say crypto broadly
Phantom which is kind of a bit of an OG L1 big in the Defy
space. Andre Cornier who like mounted
that chain is kind of a Defy God.
He he's come back with Sonic upgrade which is like a
paralyzed DVM. Extra way to chart like I don't
know it's just a new way to scale Etherium.
You've heard it here before and that's going to be the big thing
that people are getting bullish on.
That's been the best performing coin other than a meme coin over
the last month. It's it's up quite a lot it's I
think it tested new highs or phantom but a a bunch of
different a bunch of different crypto Twitter heads decided to
get get together. It felt like the the real cabal
and decided the Phantom's going to be the coin that everyone
gets behind. So that's been the one that I
think people have been paying attention to, but other than
that it's been a bit of a not been that great for for for
altcoins. I would say in general most most
things are down we can move on to.
The wallet, right? What did you say?
The. Phantom the wallet, right?
No, no, no, no. FANTOM Phantom Phantom is.
Betray my boomerness. Yeah.
To be fair, like this is kind of it.
It had a lot of TBR like back in 2021 and loads of people were
were like farming on it and then it kind of kind of just went to
zero basically like no one did anything.
And then they've kind of come back with a with a story not
dissimilar to what we've seen with like say or Monab where
it's like a just a new L1 with a way to scale Etherium.
And that one's definitely been the best performing L1 ever
since kind of Solana slowed down a little bit that's that's taken
up. NFTS has been slightly
different. Obviously we continue to hit all
time highs in every single ordinals pretty much every
single day. You have brief dips for about I
don't know 24 or 48 hours and the new AirDrop hits and
everyone everyone gets another Stimmi.
And I think we've hit all time highs in in puppets and in
monkeys quantum cats, every single one of the top
collections is hitting all time high.
I know you've you've pay attention to this a lot stats.
Sam. What what do you what do you
think of this space right now? You said you were going to buy a
dip in all of these collections. Did you actually end up buying
any of these dips or did they just?
Run away. I'm never talking about dying
buying dips. I thought you said you were
going to buy some of the dips in ordinals and then and then like
ago months. Ago buying dips is like is code,
man. No one buys dips.
People sell dips. They just say they're going to
buy dips, which is code for I don't have the guts to buy
current prices. Yeah, no.
Buying dips is is an illusion. But no, no, look I think like
the narrative. It's just, I think it's got
enough of a narrative that it can sustain attention for a fair
bit of time right now, you know? And I think that, yeah, I
personally like NTS. I like Jpegs.
I think these are NTS. It's just it's just it's a
better narrative right now because the ETH ecosystem aside
from you know pudgies or azuki when people start talking about
coins it's like those those those NFTS will pump but other
than that like the ETH ecosystems just constantly has
you know weights on its ankles. Soul is a little bit harder to
get behind. But I think that the Bitcoin
narrative just makes it it. It has some, it has some state
power, it has some real whales who really like it.
And as you said, the fact that more stuff gets dropped to these
guys is people build out more kind of defy infrastructure on
coordinals. It just means that they're
actually dividend paying assets. So I personally don't own many.
I'm not that. I just haven't bought a lot of
stuff overall recently, but I I do.
I I do remember like when I was at East Denver, like every time
I checked my phone, like no monkeys would went up like
another .1 Bitcoin. So I I did tweet about them a
fair bit back then because it was one of those times where I
was like on the airplane and was like about to buy one.
And then I realized like every NFT I've ever bought on an
airplane goes straight down. Because the fact that I'm buying
it on an airplane means that I have a ton of FOMO, which means
it's like peaking. So I was like, I can't buy it on
an airplane. And of course, because I didn't,
it like, doubled in two days. I saw your tweet the other day,
actually I think it was yesterday which was showing the
the rally in the in the large cap NFT, which I I thought was
pretty hilarious like. Massive massive rally.
It has been pain out there, like look at that, that rally that we
saw over the last 24 hours that everyone said.
Yeah, I think. I think that.
Was when Pudgy's was at like Elevens and now they're at 14,
so it might be a bigger rally, but.
Yeah, yeah. Right.
This is the start of the year. Oh no, that's the start of last
year. That's the start of 23.
Yeah. So if you start at 100 there,
you're down about 60% on on that.
I mean it was a a nice pop and there obviously been certain
collections which have which have bucked the the trend here
but that is there's a wild wild graph but then you bring up DJNS
and and like I look at ordinals and it is like seven days in
ordinals, 30 years in ordinals runestone up 150%, no monkeys up
50%, puppets up 70%. Ordinals had OMB had that
massive mint R60 even up like everything is up 50 to 100% here
like it is. They're really, it's just
trading on its own, in its own universe, it feels like.
Yeah this feels kind of like Ethan if he's felt when you had
like a a couple crown winners, like there's kind of like board
apes and Azuki and moon birds and doodles and like there was
like a moment where it all just kind of rose together and there
was a sentiment that this was a long lasting narrative.
And I feel like that's happening right now in Bitcoin.
It's like these are the early crown winners and this is a
story that people that has longevity and you know there are
a lot of ETH guys that haven't moved over yet.
I personally think it's more ETH guys buying I I kind of divide
the world more into JPEG. Non JPEG people than Bitcoin.
You need people. And I think that you know, I
don't think you have a ton of people who are like I hated
crypto punks, but I love, but I love ordinals because these
jpegs aren't Bitcoin. I think you're more like either
pro pro JPEG or anti JPEG and it's just more are people from
ETH transitioning over there than anything else.
But you know, it feels like you know, these FOMO processes are
gradual, you know, and you bring a few more people over.
So it was a bit of a stimmy over the last 24 hours which was this
Dimension AirDrop. You must have got some of that
Spencer this another AirDrop for Purgy Penguins.
This was that Nim right? Not Dimension's the prior
AirDrop. Right.
Yeah, yeah. Nim.
Nim the an AI gaming app. Like, what is this?
I didn't even look into this new Everyone made some money and.
Everyone was happy. No, I don't think the coin is
actually out yet, right? I think everyone was just
claiming and got a bunch of Nim candily.
I don't know much about it. I also didn't know much about
dim either and I got a lot of that one.
So got a bunch of it. But yeah I don't know it's it's
kind of interesting to see right.
Like the a lot of like I'm actually was starting to think
through like I I should put together a chart of like what is
the what is the value of pudgy plus all the air drops.
Right. We actually see like, like dim,
despite me not knowing much about it and probably because I
didn't know much about it, has actually been performing like
quite well, especially for people who like staked it and
stuff. And so, you know, you see some
pretty legitimate like air drops happening.
And I think that led a lot to the rise of the price of pudgies
like yesterday, right? Yeah, yeah, that was, that was
part of the reason I think people knew, knew that was
coming obviously. And I was speaking to actually
to Luca in in France about this and we were, we were just
talking about you know like the the future of all projects.
And I was like you're in such a good place.
People just keep giving you free money like you don't need to
like you should just keep doing what you're doing like do
everything to like the you know you're crushing out on the to
your products business and the community building and the memes
and all that sort of stuff. You don't necessarily need to
run because with these top projects it now particularly in
the bull market, you just get loads of free stuff like this is
how many you're gonna get. Layer zero as well with the with
the pudgies, right and there's. I mean, it hasn't been
confirmed, but like, I would be shocked if we didn't, right?
Yeah, I think the three, the three for me that seem obvious
are layer 0, bear a chain and ZK sink, right?
And like. Yeah, yeah.
That's the other. One, those three alone are
pretty. That's, that's that's that's
nothing like that's that's nothing small, right.
Like like dimension alone was like, I mean it was like 8 or
$10,000 a pudgy. Yeah, it's crazy.
That is crazy. And then you don't have to also
have the burden of like eight coin right now where it's just
like it is a burden for the whole community at the same
time, like everyone made money, but it would be doing great if
we just made money and then you didn't have to like, you know,
build a Dow and then worry about how the funds are being spent
and all this sort of stuff. Like let other people create the
coins and just give them to your community for free.
And that's kind of, I mean that's the dream scenario,
right? I was saying and he was like,
yeah, I I think I agree like if you can organise this sort of
stuff, it's it's kind of wild. The other, the other big
community to benefit from this was the was the parallel
community, which is. I mean, this token's been on an
absolute tear. It's one's crazy to me.
A lot of people saying this could go you know it is a $2
billion fully dailed market cap it's it started just a few
months ago was at was at 2 right in September.
I remember Sobi, I mean this this was kind of around last
cycle so oh interesting. I thought it was around earlier
than that but I think it definitely was people are saying
this could this could go to like 100 like this this this thing
that that it's kind of a mixture right now because they have some
it's obviously a tabletop game. I know you're big in that world
Spencer, but the idea is that they also have some AI
components of the game or and they're also going to do like an
AI AirDrop move to Solana. People getting very very, very
bullish on this as the one out of them all that could that
could do well. What's your What's your view on
this, Spencer? I think this is very interesting
because it scratches an itch of specific narratives Like they've
done a very good job branding this where you're like, I don't
really know what this is, but like gaming and like I don't
know what this is, but like AI, right?
And like that's a bullish thesis if I don't know what this is.
But it seems like an index play on AI.
Like, I mean call a spade a spade.
A lot of the like trend followers who got it or who are
a lot of the crypto crowd like got AI, you know focused or
whatever. And so crypto plus AI to me
feels like a stronger narrative this cycle than like real estate
plus AI was last cycle. Where or is it real estate plus
crypto where like you had virtual metaverse land doing
super well for no other. Where if you thought about it at
all, you're like this makes no sense.
But if you didn't think about it importantly and you're like oh
land lots of value in like real estate.
Oh crypto lots of value in real estate in crypto right.
Like crypto real estate makes lots of sense.
I think that's this meta like is like AI plus crypto, Wow like
game plus crypto, Wow game plus AI plus crypto.
Very good, right? However, like how is the game
very good like? Yeah.
Does it matter? Spencer Just a left curve dude.
Don't even don't even inch towards like being in the in the
in the middle here. I just feel like the more you
think in this market, like the more you are setting yourself
back when it comes to a lot of the stuff that pumps.
I I agree with that this is the thing in crypto.
You realise it only really matters in a bear market if
there are players and until that point I think we can run this
thing. I own zero of this token.
You can buy it on Coinbase. I think it was a Coinbase, like
a Coinbase Ventures crypto. And I don't know.
I just feel as though AI plus gaming and they're going to give
you like, I think they give you another coin, right?
Like if you stake your prime you're going to get their AI
coin. That just feels like something
that that throw away the fundamentals book this could
this could go pretty high like I saw this yesterday with Reddit,
right? Like Reddit launched and within
about 5 minutes everyone was like, this is an AI stock and it
went up 50%. Like because they're selling
their data, you know, to some of the AI companies, they're like,
oh, this is actually this is actually an AI company Reddit.
One of my favourite stories. I think it was on this show that
OSF said that Xai or XAI was bumping because they had AI in
the taker. Zai, zai, zai.
Got the AI pump for a for for a while there.
So yeah. So we're doing great stuff as
well. But yeah it is.
I have all the stuff in gaming. Let me just bring up the the
gaming space right now. You know it hasn't been an
amazing period for for a lot of these over the last seven days.
Primes higher again. Most, most things.
Most things lower. But Prime seems to be the one
that's that that continues out of these.
I don't know about a lot of these stories now like IMAX is
more like AL Two play beam a lot of I like that for a long time.
It's now run up to 2 billion. They need to like produce some
games. Obviously I'm a big fan of zai.
We're we're like we're an invest in that.
Dude, how is sandbox still on this list?
I want to. Know the the one thing I always
see on sandbox is another big. They have huge unlocks every
single week. Like it is wild.
The unlocks. Because I think the the like, I
just. I don't know who buys that.
Like who who's playing in the sandbox these days.
Wow. Look at that for a chart though.
Still like top 15 of all NFTS because there's so much supply
and they still cost 500 bucks each.
Darla's the one that always gets me, man.
Like that is that is a monster of us of a of a decrease in
these. I don't know obviously they do
you know they they sponsor a lot of stuff in the space and they
do a lot of a lot of different things.
But I agree with you that it doesn't some of those older
gaming coins I just don't know how they come back.
They may I mean actually he's done an OK job with it.
Ronan's been a good play so far as like the chain play of of of
AXI and they had the pixels game which came back pretty strong.
But a lot of the the other ones from the past cycle that you
know you can just tell they they ain't going to come back anytime
soon. I think that was that was
largely it for for for for for for today's show.
It does feel as though I don't know we bounced back slightly
looks like we've we're we're now at 30 sorry 64 K nearly on
Bitcoin. Things not looking as terrible.
I think today hopefully we get a little bit of a better better
weekend and yeah we've bounced kind of across the board so
these are not going imminently to 0.
Hopefully that we have an ETF inflow today but look guys I
super appreciate you you filling in.
I actually think this is better than a normal show normally like
I'm Joe OS FS not saying a word. Everyone everyone everyone
everyone contributed I liked I liked today's show I really
really liked it And yeah we will we will see you again on Monday.
Yeah. Thanks a lot guys.