1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:04,080 This is the Elon Musk Podcast, your daily hit of what is really 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:08,000 going on at Tesla, SpaceX X AI, and the rest of the Musk 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,200 universe. I'm your host Will Walden, and I 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,600 have covered Elon Musk for more than five years, spent a year on 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,160 the ground at SpaceX, Starbase during early Starship 6 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,480 development, and before this I spent my career as a software 7 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,200 developer working with billion dollar companies. 8 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,880 I've also built and sold my own businesses and now I make 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,320 content and help other people grow their companies. 10 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Now on this show, I used that experience to break down the 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,840 news, filter out all the noise and give you clear context you 12 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:42,200 can actually use. Waymo begins testing in 13 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,080 Minneapolis with its white Jaguar. 14 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:48,280 I pace, SU VS and Zeker RT vehicles rolling out under human 15 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,080 control now. The company says that is the 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,720 first step toward ride hailing in the city once it proves 17 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,520 performance on local streets. Now today, you'll hear what 18 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,680 Waymo plans to do, how Minnesota officials and drivers reacted, 19 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:07,640 why winter conditions are the ultimate hurdle for driverless 20 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,840 vehicles. A Waymo spokesperson told us 21 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,680 that the goal is not only testing, but ride hailing. 22 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:20,160 How will that path play out in a city known for ice, snow, very 23 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,160 cold weather and complex traffic patterns? 24 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,760 So here's the plan for today. I'll explain what we MO is doing 25 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,880 in Minneapolis and how the phased rollout works. 26 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,960 Then walk through the safety claims, illegal stuff, labor 27 00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:36,280 concerns in the city's expectations. 28 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,080 And then we're going to talk about an analysis of what winter 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,560 conditions and local policy will demand before riders can tap a 30 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,120 button for a driverless car. And we'll get right into that 31 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:52,960 after this very short break. We MO's Twin Cities move starts 32 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,160 with manual driving, then supervised autonomy, then 33 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,920 potential public rides. The company's product 34 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,720 communications manager told us that they intend to offer ride 35 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,560 hailing in Minneapolis, not just testing. 36 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,520 Testing began Thursday morning with no date sent for passenger 37 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,040 service, which signals A validation first approach before 38 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,280 they invite normal people like you and I into these vehicles. 39 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,520 Now here's how the rollout works on the street. 40 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,880 First, a human driver sits behind the wheel to collect data 41 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:28,480 and map the city streets using the full sensor arrays and suite 42 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:32,320 of cameras, radar and LIDAR to build a 360° picture of the 43 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,320 city. And after mapping, the vehicle 44 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,560 drives the route while the human remains behind the wheel to take 45 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:41,120 control if needed. This creates repeatable routes 46 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:45,760 and edge cases for libraries that Waymo can analyze before it 47 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:51,320 asks regulators and the public. For rider only, ServiceNow 48 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,080 Minneapolis is a deliberate choice. 49 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:57,080 The company calls winter a big question, so it wants a dense 50 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,040 urban area with serious coal to test whether it's 6th 51 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,240 generation. AI and cleaning mechanisms can 52 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,040 keep sensors clear and decision making stable now, starting in 53 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:09,880 the urban core, then expanding outward let's the team validate 54 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,320 in high complexity traffic before it scales to wider 55 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:18,520 coverage. Now this is an effort to answer 56 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,640 the hardest problem in one of the hardest environments first. 57 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,160 And safety is the center of Waymo's pitch here. 58 00:03:25,640 --> 00:03:28,840 They point to its record in other cities setting fewer 59 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,880 injury crashes and fewer pedestrian injury crashes 60 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,480 compared with human drivers over the same distance. 61 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,440 Those are directional claims that set expectations for local 62 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:42,080 officials and riders who will ask about crash rates, near 63 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,400 misses and emergency vehicle interactions. 64 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,920 And if Minneapolis sees similar results during supervised 65 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,640 testing, that'll support the case for a limited, then broader 66 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,600 rider rollout over time. And Minneapolis law does not 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:01,200 explicitly allow or prohibit autonomous vehicle testing, 68 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,880 according to the state Transportation department. 69 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,760 That means the next legislative session will likely take up EV 70 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,320 policy with agencies asking to be part of this discussion. 71 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,960 And a clear framework would set responsibilities for companies 72 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,920 reporting requirements for incidents and rules for when a 73 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,880 vehicle can operate without a human at the driver's seat. 74 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,200 Lawmakers will weigh local transit priorities and workforce 75 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,240 efforts while they draft these rules. 76 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:30,760 A labor concerns surfaced immediately. 77 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,960 The Minnesota Uber Lyft Drivers Association said driverless cars 78 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,760 could threaten income for drivers and faulted companies 79 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,520 for making deployment decisions without community input. 80 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,360 The group also raised a performance question specific to 81 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,920 Minnesota's climate, arguing that the technology is unproven 82 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:50,800 on icy roads in a winter traffic. 83 00:04:51,280 --> 00:04:55,800 Those questions will press Waymo to share test data, incident 84 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,200 logs and performance envelopes for low visibility and low 85 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:03,960 friction conditions. Now, city officials see some 86 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,960 trade-offs here. A Minneapolis spokesperson told 87 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:10,520 us that the city wants safe streets and efficient traffic, 88 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,520 and it'll keep talking with Waymo as testing begins with 89 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,240 human drivers. The city also raised a basic 90 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,040 question. If ride hail grows, how does 91 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:22,880 that interact with public transit goals in mode shift? 92 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:28,160 Now my analysis on this is that Minneapolis will want to measure 93 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:33,400 any shift in bus or ride it rail ridership once EV trips are 94 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,600 available, and it'll look for rules to keep pickup and drop 95 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,920 off flows from clogging key corridors in the city. 96 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:46,480 And if they see a downturn in bus and rail ridership, then 97 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:51,160 they could start taxing driverless vehicles and ride 98 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:56,000 hailing services to make up the lost revenue from bus and rail. 99 00:05:56,480 --> 00:06:01,280 Now, Waymo's current service footprint matters for 100 00:06:01,280 --> 00:06:06,360 expectations of this new area. The company already runs rider 101 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,120 service in warmer cities and climates and has partnerships 102 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:10,840 with deliveries in the Phoenix area. 103 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:14,480 Recently expanded to Austin and Atlanta through the Uber app and 104 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,240 the several other U.S. markets on its radar, including 105 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:22,000 Washington DC, Miami, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, San Diego, 106 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:26,160 San Antonio, Seattle, Nashville, Orlando and Tampa, and also 107 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,600 announced plans for cold weather cities like Boston, Detroit, 108 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,360 Denver, New York City and also Buffalo. 109 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,120 Minneapolis slots into that broader push is a winter test 110 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:41,600 site with dense urban streets. Now I expect Minneapolis to 111 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,400 focus on performance during active snowfall freeze thaw 112 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:49,360 cycles that leave rutted ice in early morning glare with 113 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,720 partially obscured lane markings. 114 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,840 Sensor cleaning is a real constraint for Waymo. 115 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,120 Even with heating and hydrophobic coatings, slush and 116 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,880 road salt will degrade lighter returns and camera clarity over 117 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,360 time. Now, the mapping pass will help, 118 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,000 but the real proof will be how the system handles refrozen 119 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,640 intersections. If it hits black ice, what does 120 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,120 it do? What if it wants to turn into an 121 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,920 unplowed alley? Will it just smash through the 122 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,080 snow? And it'll also have inconsistent 123 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,320 bike lane markings after a storm. 124 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:30,120 How will Waymo deal with this? You know, and I've been digging 125 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:34,440 through the analytics of the show and noticed that 37% of you 126 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,680 are following this channel. And for you, I am forever 127 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,480 grateful. And we're getting new followers 128 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,320 all the time. So join up, join the community, 129 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,320 join the club here. But the other 63% of you haven't 130 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:48,920 hit the follow or subscribe button yet. 131 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,080 I've been an independent journalist covering Elon Musk, 132 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,120 SpaceX, and tech for the last six years. 133 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,160 And I'll continue for the next 10 years in this podcast. 134 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,080 I've been doing the podcast for six years plus. 135 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,400 All I ask from you is one second of your time. 136 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,840 And all you have to do is hit the follower subscribe button on 137 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,680 the platform you're on right now. 138 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,800 And I'll be extremely grateful and blessed to have you in this 139 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,880 community. Thank you for your support. 140 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:24,160 Now, local precedent exists here, and that matters for 141 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,880 public comfort too. Southwest Transit has tested 142 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,160 autonomous vehicles and it's on demand prime service in the 143 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,960 suburbs with a human seated behind the wheel but not 144 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:36,280 actively driving. Riders have taken more than 145 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,400 17,000 trips in those vehicles with a very high satisfaction 146 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,600 rate, which gives officials a nearby reference point of how 147 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,000 people react to computer driven rides. 148 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,680 It also gives lawmakers a Minnesota specific test case 149 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:51,640 when they debate statewide rules. 150 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,160 Now, community voices around the city reflect both optimism and 151 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,120 also caution. A City Council member said crash 152 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,440 reduction and less need for parking could help, but flagged 153 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,720 concern about systems still struggling to fully identify 154 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,480 people. Now that puts a spotlight on 155 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,360 vulnerable road users, so the next phase should include 156 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,720 transparent reporting on how the system detects and responds to 157 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:22,680 pedestrians, cyclists, scooter riders, skateboarders, E bikes, 158 00:09:22,680 --> 00:09:25,480 anything on the road. Minneapolis will want data from 159 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,600 the urban core, where those interactions happen consistently 160 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,920 and constantly. And Waymo's team frame the 161 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,160 arrival as more than just a test run. 162 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,080 A spokesperson for the company told us that they are here to 163 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,520 offer ride hailing in Minneapolis once the system 164 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,440 proves itself not to pass through and leave. 165 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,960 They're not just doing this to gather data then move to a 166 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,800 bigger city. And that sets a standard that 167 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,360 the company will be asked to meet with service maps, hours 168 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,400 and response times when it seeks a ride or only permit. 169 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,520 And the quickest way to build trust is to publish the safety 170 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:02,040 case, the route coverage and operation conditions before 171 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:07,280 inviting any riders on board. And these vehicles are cool. 172 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:11,400 They're Jaguar I paced SU, VS, and also Zeker RT models. 173 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,080 They have distinctive sensor stacks and roof hardware, so 174 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,480 they're going to draw some attention, which makes them 175 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,840 visible to drivers and pedestrians. 176 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,240 Visibility is helpful during the learning period, but it also 177 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,160 invites scrutiny. So I expect Waymo to run clear 178 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,200 markings and keep training personnel on site during the 179 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,960 early weeks to answer questions, log issues and collective 180 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,120 feedback and also talk about bugs. 181 00:10:36,560 --> 00:10:39,160 Now, that feedback loop will shape the service map and the 182 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:44,920 weather policy moving forward. Also, there's regulatory stuff 183 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,520 going on. State transportation officials 184 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,360 expect the issue to come up in the next session, which means 185 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,120 hearings, draft bills and stakeholder testimony could take 186 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,400 years. And if lawmakers set data 187 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,480 sharing and incident reporting rules, Minneapolis could 188 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:01,560 position itself as a national winter city proving ground for 189 00:11:01,560 --> 00:11:05,600 all AVS, including Tesla. With clear expectations around 190 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:09,040 performance, insurance and roadway etiquette for pick up 191 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,080 and drop off, companies will need to show they can operate 192 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,040 within those rules while improving Traffic Safety and 193 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,640 saving lives. But in the near term, the 194 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,800 testing geography is a big deal. Starting downtown puts the 195 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:26,800 system in contact with buses, bike lanes, curbside loading, a 196 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:31,280 lot of people walking in and out of the streets, jaywalking, 197 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:36,400 people running across the street, bikes, anything, 198 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,360 scooters, any sort of E bikes, any sort of skateboards, 199 00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:41,240 anything like that. They're going to be everywhere 200 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,400 and expanding outward will add freeway merges eventually. 201 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,920 Bridges that ice before regular roads and neighborhood streets 202 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:52,200 where snow banks are very prominent in the winter time. 203 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,000 And I expect the most challenging phase to be the late 204 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,880 storm window when plows leave residual snow ridges that 205 00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:03,680 obscure lane lines and narrow travel lanes and unpredictable 206 00:12:03,680 --> 00:12:07,440 ways somebody's exiting the driveway and there's snow being 207 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,240 plowed or have been plowed on either side of their driveway. 208 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:12,800 You can't see that car coming out. 209 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,800 So what is going to happen when we MO encounter something like 210 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:21,360 that? Public transit still an open 211 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:26,640 question? City Council member told us what 212 00:12:26,680 --> 00:12:30,360 they told us about the service and how it means for transit 213 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,680 ridership recovery. And you know what? 214 00:12:32,680 --> 00:12:36,600 That's a fair question. If AV Ride Hill cannibalizes 215 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,960 short bus trips, that could reduce fare box revenue and slow 216 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,200 ridership gains. So they could make a lot less 217 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:43,760 money. But if it feeds riders to 218 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,880 transit stations, they can improve coverage and reduce car 219 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,200 ownership too. To clean up the environment a 220 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,720 little bit, many Yep this will need to watch trip patterns and 221 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,440 work with Waymo and pick up zones near transit hubs. 222 00:12:56,560 --> 00:13:01,200 Now, my read on the timing here is pretty straightforward. 223 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,680 Testing began with the human at the wheel and no pasture start 224 00:13:04,680 --> 00:13:07,760 date yet, which puts the emphasis on data collection 225 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,000 through the winter. If the system meets its 226 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,000 performance targets across snow, ice and low visibility 227 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:17,120 conditions, Waymo can ask to open a limited rioter program 228 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:21,120 within a geofenced area, likely starting with smaller fleets in 229 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:25,000 defined hours. Maybe if 10 vehicles and do it 230 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:30,760 when it's daylight and clear. Clear up public reporting will 231 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,920 help move that process forward. If they share all of their data 232 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,600 with the city and the state, they're good to go. 233 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,800 You know, I think this is a really big deal. 234 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,640 Tesla isn't there yet, but they will eventually head to 235 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,040 Minneapolis. And Waymo has started supervised 236 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,880 testing in Minneapolis with manual driving for mapping and 237 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,440 data collection, plans to keep a human behind the wheel during 238 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:01,440 early autonomous runs, and aims to offer ride hailing after it 239 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,040 proves performance in winter and city traffic. 240 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:08,720 State law has no explicit AV authorization, legislators 241 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:13,240 expect to take up the issue, and local voices raise safety, labor 242 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,640 and transit corrections. The next phase depends on how 243 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,560 the system handles that snow, handles that ice, and the dense 244 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:25,480 urban interactions, and on what rules that Minneapolis sets for 245 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,720 driver operations in the future. And please, if you want to 246 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:35,840 support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stagezero and 247 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,280 please take care of yourselves and each other and I'll see you 248 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:38,800 tomorrow.