Hey everyone, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
I'm thrilled to share some exciting news with you over the
next two weeks. We're evolving.
We'll be broadening our focus to cover all the tech Titans
shaping our world. And with that, our show will
become Stage 0. You'll still get the latest
insights on Elon Musk, plus so much more, so stay tuned for our
official relaunch at stage 0 coming soon.
Now let's get into this episode sometime late next year, a
SpaceX Starship. The rocket is taller than a 15
story building and as wide as your house breaks through
Earth's atmosphere and a trajectory not towards the moon
or another Earth orbital test, but towards Mars.
It's not carrying astronauts, though.
It's not even bringing back samples or Rovers.
Instead, it carries a different kind of explorer, a humanoid
robot. One shaped like us, designed to
think like us, and meant to pave the way for us.
That raises 1 burning question though.
Is a robot truly about to become the first Earthling to set foot
on Mars? Now, this is more than
hypothetical because of something Elon Musk posted on
April 10th at 3:37 AM time that seems oddly appropriate for a
message this surreal. And according to Tesla and
SpaceX CEOA, Starship could hopefully depart from Mars at
the end of next year with Optimus Explorer robots.
That would mean if everything goes right, Tesla's humanoid
robots, originally envisioned to work in factories and maybe
assist with groceries or doing the dishes, could soon become
pioneers of another planet. Now, this isn't some obscure
concept buried in a corporate investor call.
Musk made a similarly direct declaration in September of
2024, saying the first Starships to Mars will launch in two
years, referring to the upcoming Mars Earth transfer window in
late of 2026. And these early Mars missions
will be uncrewed. No people on board robotic
trials, actually. Essentially, the test weather
Starship can land intact on Mars, but in less than 24
months. This experiment may include
optimist robots leaving their metallic footprints on Mars red
soil. But why does this matter?
It's because it would be the first time a humanoid robot
built by a private company on Earth, not a nation state space
agency, becomes the vanguard of interplanetary exploration.
A signal is a possible pivot point in space travel where the
first explorers of a new world aren't astronauts in bulky
suits, but neural network controlled machines with stiff
arms and carefully calculated gates.
And if successful, these missions could radically shift
how humans colonize space. Instead of sending humans into
the unknown, we may send robotic proxies first.
Not just for scouting, though, but for building infrastructure
long before any people arrive. And there's also something
deeply symbolic about sending optimists.
So far, the most massive payload humans have successfully landed
on Mars is about the size of a compact car, namely NASA's
Perseverance Rover. Starship is closer to the size
of a four bedroom house. And landing a spacecraft that
large on Mars is an engineering problem that remains unsolved.
No one's done it. No one even knows if it's even
possible yet. Not definitively.
And that's part of the reason the SpaceX is launching these
uncrewed missions. And having Optimus aboard is not
just about science. It's a statement to other robot
builders saying that we can build Optimus on Earth, it can
help humans here, but we can also send it around the solar
system to other planets to help us on those planets.
Now. The Mars launch window opens in
October of 2026. This is the period where both
Earth and Mars align favorably in their orbits, allowing for a
relatively efficient trip. Using current propulsion tech,
travel time could be anywhere from 6 to 9 months.
Anything longer becomes prohibitively fuel heavy and
difficult to manage. That means a Starship launch in
October of 2026 could arrive on Mars by mid 2027.
An optimist could take its first Martian step shortly thereafter.
Now there are some hurdles, though.
Some major hurdles. For one, SpaceX still hasn't
landed and recovered A Starship using its much discussed tick
the catch arms on the launch tower.
That's a crucial milestone for reusability and eventually for
making Mars round trips feasible.
And while booster landings have become routine, returning the
entire Starship vehicle safely has remained elusive.
All test flights so far have ended in explosions, sometimes
in space, sometimes on re entry. That's expected with early
hardware development. But it raises doubts about
whether the timeline Musk and visions is crowded in current
engineering reality. And assuming Starship is ready
in time, there's another big unknown the terrain.
Mars is not friendly to landing attempts.
Past Mars missions from NASA have used everything from
inflatable crash bags to rocket assisted sky cranes to get
Rovers safely on the ground. And none of these solutions are
viable at Starship scale. Even if SpaceX figures out the
mechanics of deceleration in Mars thin atmosphere, there's
still the issue of where to land.
The Mars surface isn't a tarmac. It's unpredictable.
Slopes, craters, rocks. Every inch is a new variable.
The Starship would have to land with pinpoint accuracy on
terrain it is never touched, possibly carrying a robot that
will have to walk across the same surface.
Now, Tesla's Optimus isn't exactly ready for Mars either,
at least not yet. As of late 2024, the robot could
barely walk up a small hill without wobbling or falling
over. It's made significant progress
from its early days of stilted, clumsy shuffles.
Still, compared to robotics leaders like Boston Dynamics,
Tesla's humanoid still looks rudimentary.
The robot doesn't need to perform acrobatics on Mars.
It only needs to walk down a ramp, interact with its
environment, and possibly collect small rocks or explore
simple surroundings now. That alone, however, would be
making history. If it accomplishes even basic
functions, Optimist could be the first machine of its kind to
actively explore a planet. Now that sets the stage for
something for more consequential things.
Using robots to build Mars habitats.
This would remove the initial risk for human astronauts.
Letting robots install solar panels, test excavation methods,
or even begin construction of pressurized structures.
And understand why moment is critical.
You have to understand Musk's broader Mars visions.
He has said repeatedly that being a multi planetary species
is essential for humanity's long term survival.
The idea is that Earth is vulnerable to disasters, nuclear
war, even the long term effects of climate change or even AI,
and having a second base of operations could serve as just a
backup. And the phrase he used in 2024
was that being multiplanetary will, quote, vastly increase the
probable lifespan of consciousness.
In other words, if everything we know and love is wiped out here,
we might have a shot someplace else.
Vision isn't just about escape though, it's about expansion.
Space XS long term plan as outlined by Elon is to build a
self-sustaining Mars city in 20 years.
That wouldn't mean permanent Martian infrastructure, regular
cargo runs, and a small population of humans capable of
surviving without constant Earth support.
Optimus robots, upgraded with new tools and skills over the
years would likely form the initial construction crew.
This creates a strange dynamic, though.
In theory, humans could one day arrive at Mars to find their
living quarters already built by machines.
Floor swept airlocks pressurized, solar panels
humming. And in this scenario, Optimus
isn't just a research assistant. It's a Butler, a technician, a
mechanic, and maybe even a cohabitant.
While that future may still be decades away, the journey toward
it arguably begins with the first flight in 2026.
Another crucial layer to this conversation is how these
programs are tied together. Tesla is building optimists
solely for factory work. Musk has said before that all of
his companies, Tesla, SpaceX, Neural Link, and X, are designed
to accelerate humanity's future. That's more than branding their
shared technologies across each enterprise.
Starship already uses Tesla battery cells for power.
Storage uses software that resembles Tesla Autopilot logic.
The idea of building the future is not theoretical, it's
architectural, and Optimus is a pillar in an architecture now.
Sending robots to Mars also allows SpaceX and Tesla to push
AI and robotics in a relatively low risk environment.
Failures on Mars are not life threatening in the same way as
failures on Earth. The Optimus units could be
trained via simulated Mars environments here on Earth and
refined through incremental software updates.
Now, even after launch, once they're on Mars, Tesla can push
over the air updates via Starlink, a system also owned
and operated by Elon and SpaceX. And that is a major development
milestone for Starship. They must be able to carry
Starlink hardware to Mars and deploy it autonomously.
Without reliable communication, the entire robot mission is
basically flying blind. But if they can land, deploy
Starlink, and connect Optimist to Earth via high speed relay,
we could be looking at real time robotic operations on Mars, live
feeds, remote commands, and continuous status reports.
There's still skeptics, of course.
Some experts question whether Mars colonization is a
meaningful investment when the Earth's problems remain
unresolved. Others asked whether Musk's
timeline is a form of wishful thinking or a way to maintain
investor interest. These critics haven't slowed the
program down. As of now.
Construction continues the Starbase.
They don't care. And the goal, according to Musk,
is eventually to be launching dozens of Starships per year.
He has even floated numbers as high as 50 to 100 launches by
2026, depending on regulatory approval and production output,
of course. And while they may seem far
fetched, it's worth noting how much progress SpaceX has already
made. In a few short years, they've
gone from blowing up prototypes in South Texas to coordinating
Oracle reentries. Starship still has a long way to
go before it's Mars ready, but it's no longer a speculative
concept. And meanwhile, Optimus has
quietly become a larger focus at Tesla.
What started as a surprise stage reveal is now a full product
line. Musk has said Tesla could
eventually produce millions of Optimus robots.
Early models will be for internal use, working in Tesla
factories, fetching parts, or even assisting in the warehouse.
But Musk has stated the long term goal is for these robots to
be sold to consumers and possibly leased to businesses.
The robots could cost less than a small car and in theory pay
for themselves by performing basic tasks.
So the 2026 Mars mission may be a test for Starship's capacity,
but it could also be a test for Tesla's long term robotics
viability. If Optimist can survive and
operate on Mars, it becomes something far more impressive
than a warehouse Assistant doesn't just do your dishes or
vacuum your home. It becomes a potential tool for
human expansion, a product that can build explorer and endure
where humans cannot. Now, if all goals go according
to plan, Starship could carry the first humanoid robots to
Mars in 2026. They're going to scout the
terrain, they may start work on building second home for
humanity, and they could bring cargo down to the surface or
when people show up in the future.
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