Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
I'm your host, Will Walden. Let's talk about Starship, let's
talk about New Glen, and let's talk about ula as well for a
national security space launch phase three launch services
program. OK, that's a lot.
Wow. OK, So we know that SpaceX works
with the Department of Defense, and we also know the Blue Origin
hasn't launched New Glen yet. So those are the two things we
have to think about today. SpaceX works with the Department
of Defense, with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and they also work
with NASA and other firms around the world.
Blue Origin sends people to space to do what some would call
a carnival ride. You go up, you come back down.
I think it's pretty cool though. Right now the the Blue Origin
launcher that sends people to space sent Captain Kirk to
space. I mean, come on, you can't just
be a hater on that. That's pretty cool.
But New Glen, their giant massive rocket, hasn't launched
yet. Why do they get these contracts?
How do they get this contract and what does this mean for
SpaceX in the overall scheme of things?
This contract is coming up $5.6 billion / 5 years from fiscal
year 2025 to 2029. They'll compete for at least 30
NSSL Lane One missions, which launch up to two years in
advance. So let's talk about Blue Origin
first. Blue Origin, who is founded by
Jeff Bezos, the Amazon guy, selected for the first time to
launch national security satellites under the NSSL
program. The only rocket that they have
that can do this is New Glen, which hasn't launched yet.
We they haven't even test fired the thing.
Now heavy lift reusable rocket is expected to attempt its first
orbital flight later this year. Could this be possible?
Could we see a New Glen flight? I think it would be freaking
awesome if we saw a New Glen flight.
Let me know down to the comments if you support Blue Origin and
their gigantic massive New Glen rocket.
It's not as big a Starship Mind you not I don't think it's as
cool as Starship. But because it's all hidden and
secret, we don't really know what's going on with New Glen
until Blue Origin releases something.
It's not like SpaceX where you can drive down Hwy. 4, literally
parking the side of the road, like across the road from it,
take a couple pictures or like to stand there and hang out and
notice how huge this thing is. You can't do that with New Glen.
It's all in secret. But they received $5 million for
initial capabilities assessment and nearly $18 million for early
integration studies for New Glen, their initial capabilities
assessment. What can it do?
What can the Blue origin rocket do?
How much can it hold early integration studies for new
glance? So they get 50 or 5,5,000,000
and 18,000,000 for both of those things.
Just it's kind of like a study like hey, early integration
studies like how can this how does this thing work?
How will it work for the Department of Defense?
That's a bunch of money. And then phase three, this is
how the program structure and lay details.
I'm going to read this off to you because it's hard for me to
remember all this stuff. It's divided into two lanes.
Lane one is for less demanding low earth orbit launches and
lane 2 for heavy lift rockets capable of delivering payloads
to 9 reference orbits. So SpaceX has Falcon Heavy, it's
their heavy lift rocket. And then Jeff Bezos with New
Glen, that's their heavy lift rocket.
Lane one contracts are confirmed for Blue Origin, SpaceX and ula
with no other launch providers meeting the criteria.
Lane two providers will be selected later this year with up
to three contracts awarded for high performance launch systems.
So lane 2 heavy lift rockets, SpaceX is more than likely going
to get it with Falcon Heavy. Not quite Starship yet because I
don't know if the, I don't know if the Department of Defense
really is into, I know they're into Starship, but I don't know
if they're ready for a Starship launch yet.
And Joey Roulette, we're going to talk about that in a minute
too. Joey Roulette had some
information about this on X as well.
I'll talk about that in a little bit.
Now the competition. Space Force aims to increase
competition and drive down launch costs, which is a great
thing for SpaceX while maintaining assured access to
space through redundant capabilities.
Do it through ula do it through Blue Origin, do it through
SpaceX. You have three different things.
You can launch with three different launch providers.
So it's going to be redundant. They can always get something to
orbit or beyond on wrap. Opportunities will be available
early year to allow new providers and systems to enter
the competition. So if anybody else out there has
a heavy lift rocket or rocket that can suffice what the
Department of Defense needs, sure, throw your hat in the
ring. Go for it early year every year
to allow new providers to and systems to enter the
competition. Potential new entrants for lane
one include Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, Firefly
Aerospace, and they're all, they all have like medium lift
rockets right now or they're developing them.
So the task orders, task order number one in phase three lane 1
includes 7 launches for the Space Development Agency and one
for National Reconnaissance Office, SpaceX and ula as
incumbent phase two providers will each receive 1.5 million.
It's not that much money for these mega mega corporations.
Only launch providers who have completed a successful orbital
launch prior to the proposal due date can bid for task orders.
So why are they using Starship right now?
They don't really need to. They have Falcon Heavy.
Starship isn't proven yet. Could they do?
Could they do it by then? Yeah, of course.
And also, if they do with Falcon Heavy this year, they could
always bid for the Starship on next year's program.
So Blue Origin looks like they have the confidence of the
Department of Defense, which is great because we need
competition. Not only do does Blue Origin
compete with Starship, but they're going to be competing
with these giant contracts, with these giant contracts.
SpaceX wants that money. So they're going to make
Starship better, faster, a bigger, cheaper also ula going
to do the same thing actually ula is kind of old space, right?
So Ula does things the old way where they have a fixed way of
doing things. And the rocket doesn't change
until later. I mean, it will change later on.
They will have their blocks for this rocket, but it's not clear
exactly when that'll happen. Also, it's not really clear when
Starship will make it to orbit and complete a full orbit, but
I'm hoping it's by the end of this year.
That would be great. I'm assuming that it will be by
the end of this year. They'll they'll complete a full
orbit and they'll possibly get some star links into into orbit
while they're up there and hopefully they'll catch a
booster. And I don't think, I don't
think, you know, IFT 5 is going to be the booster catch.
I think IFT six or seven is going to be the booster catch.
I'm still optimistic. You know, I'm not a pessimist
about this thing. I'm just being realistic.
So I think somebody left a comment in on the last video
that I was pessimistic about this stuff.
I'm, I'm just being realistic, man.
You know, with the, with the booster catch for Starship, it's
just a little bit dangerous, you know, and I'm optimistic about
Starship. I want it to work very well.
I want it to work perfectly. But sometimes you got to be
realist, you know, IFT 5, if everything looks great, go for
it. Go for it.
But you know, it seems like the Department of Defense really
likes Blue Origin in this case. And Space Force plans to select
lane two providers this fall. And it they said the government
intends to award up to three contracts for the NSSL phase
three lane two launch launch service procurement lane two
providers this fall. Could that be Starship possibly,
possibly. That's a heavy lift 1.
So it's either going to be Falcon Heavy or Starship.
If they can show that they can get to orbit, SpaceX has to make
some sort of some sort of door, some sort of hatch for their
satellites to come out because I don't think they're ready for
they're not ready for the clamshell quite yet.
You know, how want the, the clamshell with the, the nose of
the Starship opening up like this and then the, the
satellites come out. I don't think they're ready for
that yet. They could do a hatch of some
sort. They did the the Starlink hatch,
which seemed to be OK, seemed to work all right.
As far as we know is that they said it was a successful test.
So yes, it was successful. Was a little bit janky and
little, you know, and, you know, probably a couple seconds worth
of closing the doors little janky, but you know, it's their
first try and it's a Starship so it's huge.
It's massive. So The thing is, Starship may
get this contract. Falcon Heavy more than likely
like that's reliable. It's proven.
If SpaceX wants to go the proven route for this one, I would say
just get the contract, take that money.
Because if you can demonstrate for the Department of Defense
that you can do these things again and again with Falcon
Heavy, of course, use that as a heavy lift rocket.
It's not a super heavy lift rocket like Starship.
And I don't think they're going to need a Starship for what the
Department of Defense, US Space Force needs for this launch.
So why would you use the Starship if you don't need it?
Let me know in the comments down below what you think they're
going to do. Joey Roulette, I'm going to read
you some of his tweets. So he just goes over Space Force
awarded Blue Origin 5 million to conduct a da, da, da.
And then so he says, Joey says SpaceX pitch Starship, Blue
Origin pitch New Glen Ula pitch Vulcan.
Then he goes on to say, I've asked SSC if Starship was
admitted to lane one. They said yes.
But I don't think that's correct.
SpaceX got 1.5 million for a well understood system, which
obviously wouldn't be Starship, it would be Falcon.
And it's highly doubtful Starship would be operational by
December. So fully operational by
December. He said it's highly doubtful.
I think there's a possibility it's possible SpaceX pitch
Starship for lane one independent of Falcon because
why not in SSC only chose its Falcon bid, but that's not
confirmed. I don't know waiting SSC to
clarify, but it certainly seems obvious Falcon is the one.
And then Nick Proxima said, hey, hi Joey.
Where exactly does it say what each vehicle was pitched?
Just trying to phrase this the best of my ability.
Thank you. And then Joey said Space Force
confirmed to him, as did the company's execs exec SpaceX.
And then he said, I don't think it's Starship.
So interesting that it's not Starship when New Glenn is
launching too. So Joey's very reputable about
this stuff. So it's it's kind of a little
bit weird, but also you got to understand it.
This is a business like they don't do this to show off
Starship. They do this to win contracts.
They do this for billions of dollars.
So if they have a rocket that can already do that, use the
rocket that's already there. Use the Falcon Heavy for now
until you get your Starship ready and then when starship's
ready, start launching. It's not like they lost a race
or anything like that. They're here to win money and
they're winning money with Falcon Heavy because they have a
reliable rocket that already works.
Unlike Blue Origin who has, you know, their has their tourism
rocket, which takes people up to space, they float back down.
It's all good. It's fun, it's pretty cool.
It's actually, it's actually really cool.
I like that. The rocket idea for Blue Origin.
I would love to do it someday. So there you have it.
That's what we know so far. Starship isn't going to be
launching these as far as we know.
If anything changes, I'll let you know.
So leave a comment down below and please hit the like button
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So thank you so much everybody for watching today.
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