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Hey everybody, welcome back to 
the Elon Musk Podcast. 

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This is a show where we discuss 
the critical crossroads that 

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shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The 
Boring Company, and Neurolink. 

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I'm your host, Will Walden. 
Starship closed 2025 on October 

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13th with its 11th test flight 
from Starbase in Texas. 

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The booster splashed down in the
Gulf of Mexico after a 

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controlled descent, and the ship
ended the mission in the Indian 

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Ocean after engine relight and 
heat shield tests. 

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NASA still pegs the first 
Artemis 3 crude lunar landing 

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for no earlier than 2027, which 
puts pressure on SpaceX to 

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accelerate milestones. 
So when does Flight 12 actually 

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happen? 
A Flight 11 delivered concrete 

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data the SpaceX needed. 
The mission, launched at 623 

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PMCT, sent a batch of mass 
simulators, Relit engines in 

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space, tested new thermal 
protection, and executed plan 

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splashdowns that preserved 
telemetry across entry, descent,

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and landing. 
SpaceX called the flight a step 

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toward an upgraded prototype 
with hardware tailored for 

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orbital refueling and docking, 
and the next campaign shifts to 

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a new hardware class. 
SpaceX retires the Block 2 

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booster and pivots to Block 3, 
which brings higher thrust 

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structural refinement such as 
modified grid fins and a 

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slightly taller, fully stacked 
vehicle at about 124.4 meters. 

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This is the configuration 
expected to carry the lunar 

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variant forward now. 
Scheduling remains the first 

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practical question. 
SpaceX has not posted a target 

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for Flight 12, and early 2026 
now looks more realistic than 

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any remaining 2025 window. 
The company also plans to bring 

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up a second launch site at 
Kennedy Space Center to support 

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a push toward roughly biweekly 
flights once the new pad and 

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ground systems are ready. 
Now, the 11th flight wrapped 

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Spacex's 2025 Starship test 
slate and cleared the decks for 

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the bigger upgrade. 
Coverage of the program framed 

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the transition as a move toward 
ship version three that 

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stretches capability and 
increases payload. 

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The year end handoff focuses 
engineering efforts on in orbit 

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refueling, docking systems and 
higher cadence production runs, 

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and refueling sits at the center
of the lunar plan. 

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SpaceX and NASA need an on orbit
transfer between two Starships 

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that moves hundreds of tons of 
super cool propellant, A 

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maneuver no one has ever 
executed before. 

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SpaceX and NASA point to a 
refueling demo next year as a 

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gating item for the Artemis 3 
timeline. 

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Now test count matters because 
the crude mission date sits on 

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the far side of several unproven
operations. 

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Estimates in European policy 
circles put the need at roughly 

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10 to 20 more Starships tests 
before Cruise Board, assuming 

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nominal outcomes without long 
investigative processes. 

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Now that cadence only becomes 
plausible if Flight 12 starts to

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2026, run early, and the ground 
teams turn vehicles around 

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without a major rework. 
Orbit remains another clear 

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threshold. 
Starship has reached space but 

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has not completed a full Earth 
orbit, which means the program 

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still must prove orbital 
performance controlled the 

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orbiting and recovery logistics 
at scale. 

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Flight 12 holds value if it 
either hits orbit or rehearses 

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the specific sequencing for the 
refueling demo and hardware 

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scope widen and SpaceX prepares 
the Florida site. 

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The company is building out 
Kennedy infrastructure to split 

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operations across Texas and 
Florida, which reduces weather 

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and range risk and supports 
higher cadence once the Florida 

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pad goes online. 
The dual pad approach also 

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creates A practical path for 
tanker and Lander launches that 

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must rendezvous on a tight 
timeline. 

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Mission architecture ties these 
pieces together. 

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For Artemis 3, NASA plans to 
send astronauts to lunar orbit 

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on Orion and SLS, then transfer 
the crew to a lunar optimized 

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Starship for the descent to the 
surface. 

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That transfer requires mature 
docking life support on the 

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Lander and a refueled Starship 
waiting on station. 

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Program risk remains manageable 
if SpaceX locks in a repeatable 

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rhythm. 
The 11th flight proved water 

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landings for both stages. 
Engine relight and heat shield 

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upgrades under real condition, 
which reduces unknowns for Block

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3. 
The next step converts those 

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discrete checks into a system 
level demonstration of orbit, 

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docking hardware and propellant 
transfer. 

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Now a successful Flight 12, an 
operational Florida pad in a 

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refueling demo would put Artemis
3 back on a credible path 

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towards a 2027 attempt. 
Miss cadence or partial demos 

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would push the schedule while 
competitors and pressure from 

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below. 
Flight 12 is very important 

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because it starts the Block 3 
era and sets up the refueling 

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demo that Artemis 3 timeline 
needs. 

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Hey, thank you so much for 
listening today. 

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