Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk
Podcast. This is a show where we discuss
the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The
Boring Company and Neurolink. I'm your host, Will Walden.
So it looks like Elon Musk might finally get the green light to
really speed up development of the Starship rocket.
Can you imagine what it would be like to see humans actually set
foot on the Red Planet during your own lifetime?
Now the election of Donald Trump is the 45th President of the
United States is expected to have far reaching consequences
for the American space program, particularly the plans of SpaceX
and Elon Musk to send humans to Mars.
And according to four individuals familiar with the
emerging space policy agenda of the incoming administration,
NASA's Artemis program, which aims to use Spacex's Starship
rocket to return astronauts to the moon as a stepping stone for
future Mars missions, is likely to shift its focus more directly
toward the Red Planet. Under Trump's leadership, this
could involve targeting uncrewed missions to Mars within the
current decade, a goal that is not only more challenging than
concentrating efforts on the moon, but also carries greater
risks and potentially higher costs.
The Musk, who has been an outspoken supporter of Trump and
even danced on stage wearing an Occupy Mars T-shirt at a
campaign rally in October, has successfully elevated the
importance of space policy during this unusual period of
presidential transition. Now, the billionaire
entrepreneur also heads electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla and
brain chip startup Neurolink contributed $119,000,000 to
Trump's White House bid. In September, just weeks after
Musk publicly endorsed Trump, the former president told
reporters that the moon served as a launching pad for his
ultimate objective of reaching Mars.
Now, Doug Navarro, which is a space industry consultant who
previously LED NASA's Human Exploration Unit during Trump's
first term, stated at a minimum, we're going to get a more
realistic Mars plan. You'll see Mars being set as an
objective. This sentiment suggests that the
Trump administration is likely to prioritize a more direct
approach to Mars exploration, potentially accelerating the
timeline for sending humans to the Red Planet.
However, it is important to note the plans could still evolve as
the Trump transition team takes shape in the coming weeks.
The sources cautioned that the specifics of the space policy
may be subject to change as new advisors and officials are
appointed to key positions within the administration.
One of the primary factors that could facilitate Spacex's
ambitions under a Trump presidency is the expected
reduction in regulatory hurdles. Musk, who has made cutting
government regulation and streamlining bureaucracy a core
tenet of his support for Trump, is likely to push for changes at
the Federal Aviation Administration's Commercial
Space Office. The FAA's oversight of private
rocket launches has been a source of frustration for Musk
as it has slowed down the development of Spacex's Starship
rocket in Boca Chica star base. Texas Now.
The FAA did not immediately responded to a request from us
for comment on this matter. Though now under the Trump
administration, NASA is also expected to favor fixed price
space contracts, the greater responsibility on private
companies, while scaling back over budget programs that have
stained the Artemis budget. Now, the shift in contracting
approach could have significant implications for the SLS rocket,
the Space Launch System rocket. Now, it's currently the only
rocket owned by NASA, and the development of the SLS, led by
Boeing and Northrop Grumman since 2011, has cost roughly $24
billion to date. While canceling the SLS program
would be challenging due to the potential loss of thousands of
jobs and the increased reliance on SpaceX, the Trump
administration may seek to restructure or streamline the
program to better align with its space policy priorities.
Boeing and Northrop did not immediately respond to any of
our requests for comment on this matter as well.
Everyone's keeping their lips sealed now.
Musk's timeline to reach Mars, which he outlined in September,
includes landing a Starship on the Red Planet by 2026 and
launching a crude mission just four years later.
Although Trump has mentioned discussing these ideas with Musk
at campaign rallies, many industry experts view this time
land as overly optimistic and improbable.
Now, Scott Pace, who served as the top space policy official
during Trump's first term, commented on the feasibility of
Musk's plans, stating is it possible for Eli to put a
Starship on the surface of Mars and a one way mission by the end
of Trump's term? Absolutely.
He certainly could do that. Is that a manned mission on
Mars? No.
You have to walk before you run. Now, despite the challenges and
uncertainty surrounding SpaceX is Mars plans, the company
remains a major contractor for the US government.
SpaceX has been awarded billions of dollars in contracts to
launch satellites and provide other services, such as
constructing a network of spy satellites.
Now, NASA has also specifically allocated around $4 billion for
the development of Starship, which the space agency intends
to use as a lunar Lander. The HLS, you know, Starship
rocket is central to Musk's vision of transforming humanity
into a multi planetary species. And by drastically reducing the
cost of launching people and equipment into space, Musk hopes
that the massive rocket will enable the establishment of a
self-sustaining colony on Mars. However, the development of
Starship has come at a significant financial cost for
SpaceX, with estimates suggesting that the project is
currently absorbing more cash than it generates.
Tim Farrar, the president of TMF Associates, which is a firm that
analyzes the satellite industry, noted that despite the
substantial investment, the promise of Starship is something
that is pretty important for SpaceX in terms of convincing
investors to keep pouring money in at ever increasing
valuations. And while the potential benefits
of Starship are compelling, its development has not been without
environmental concerns. The Boca Chica launch site,
located in Texas, is situated in the midst of state federally
protected wetlands. Biologists have documented
evidence that the noise and heat generated by launches have a
detrimental impact on the eggs of nesting birds.
Furthermore, documents from the Environmental Protection Agency
or the EPA, and an application submitted to Texas regulators
indicate that each launch discharges 10s of thousands of
gallons of water contaminated with chemicals from the launch
into the surrounding environment.
Now, of course, SpaceX has denied the charges about the
discharge water that it poses any serious harm and maintains
that it is irresponsible environmental steward.
In a statement released in September, the company asserted
the narrative that we operate free of or in defiance of
environmental regulation is demonstrably false.
SpaceX is committed to minimizing impact and enhancing
the surrounding environment where possible.
However, environmental groups have expressed their
disagreement with Spacex's assessment.
The Center for Biological Diversity and local
environmental organizations are currently suing the FAA for
failing to conduct a comprehensive environmental
impact statement before permitting SpaceX to launch
Starship even once from the Boca Chica site.
Now, Jared Margolis, who's a senior lawyer leading the
lawsuit, suggests that if regulators take a more lenient
approach under a new Trump administration, the courts may
assume a more prominent role in enforcing environmental
regulations, they said. We're not afraid of confronting
the Trump administration. We're not afraid of making sure
that environmental laws are being complied with.
That's what we do now. The potential for increased
environmental oversight through the courts underscores the
complex web of factors that could influence the trajectory
of Spacex's Mars plans under Trump.
Now, while the expected regulation reductions and
hurdles are A and a more direct focus on Mars with NASA's
Artemis program could provide a boost to Musk's plans, the
environmental concerns surrounding the Boca Chica
launch site in the ongoing legal challenges could pose
significant obstacles in the future.
Moreover, the feasibility of Musk's timeline for reaching
Mars remains a point of contention among industry
experts. The technical challenge
associated with safety landing and spacecraft landing on the
Red Planet with people on board and establishing a sustainable
human presence are immense, and many view Musk's projections as
overly optimistic now. The prospect of a renewed focus
on Mars exploration under the Trump administration has
generated excitement and anticipation, however, is
critical to approach these ambitious plans with a measure
of caution and realism. The exploration of Mars is an
enormously complex and very expensive endeavor that will
require sustained political support, robust funding, and
close collaboration among various stakeholders, including
government agencies like the FAA, NASA, etcetera.
Also there we're going to be working with private industries
and international partners to get there.
And as the Trump administration takes shape in the coming weeks
and months, the specifics of its space agenda will become
clearer. The appointment of key officials
and advisors, as well as the allocation of funds and
resources and the establishment of priorities, will provide a
more definitive picture of how the administration intends to
support and shape the future of American space exploration,
including the plans of Elon Musk and SpaceX to send humans on
Mars. Now, regardless of politics, the
dream of human exploration of Mars continues to capture all of
our imaginations. The prospect of establishing a
permanent human presence on another world is a monumental
milestone in the history of our species and holds the promise of
expanding our understanding of the universe in our place within
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