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Thank you so much. It's really, I was going to say
doubling down on autonomy, but really it's like autonomy is
like 10X thing. Frankly, doubling is not even
enough. We made many critical
investments in 2024 in manufacturing, AI and robotics
that will bear immense fruit in the future.
Immense. Like it's in fact to such a
scale that it is difficult to comprehend.
And I've said this before and I'll stand by it.
I see a path. I'm not saying it's an easy
path, but I see a path for Tesla being the most valuable company
in the world by far, not even close.
Like maybe several times more than I mean, there is a path
where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies
combined. There's a path to that.
I mean, I think it's like an incredibly, it's like a
difficult path, but it is an achievable path.
So and that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and
autonomous humanoid robots. So our focus is, is actually
building towards that. And then that that's what we're
laying the ground. We will lay the groundwork for
that in 2024. We'll continue to lay the
groundwork for that in 2025. In fact, more than lay the
groundwork actually be building the structure be we're building
the manufacturing lines. And like you know, I'd like
setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous
27 and 28 ridiculously good. That is my prediction.
You know, we as you had very few, very few people understand
the value of full self driving and our ability to monetize the
fleet. You know, I've some of these
things I've said for quite a long time and I don't know,
people have said, well, you know, he wants the boy.
You're cried wolf like several times, but I'm telling you
there's a damn wolf at this time and you can drive it.
In fact, it can drive you. It's a self driving wolf.
You know, for a lot of people that they're like their
experience of Tesla autonomy is like if it's even a year old, if
it's even 2 years old, that it's like me.
It's like meeting someone when they're like a toddler and
thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever, but
obviously not going to be a toddler forever if they grow up.
But if their last experience was like, oh, FSD was a toddler,
it's like, well, it's grown up now.
Have you seen it? It's like walks and talks, and
that's really what we've got. And it's difficult to for people
to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed
to what we're seeing is exponential progress.
So that's why my number one recommendation for anyone who
doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it?
When's the last time you tried it?
And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who
are skeptical are those who have not tried it.
So you know, a car goes, a passenger car typically has only
about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168, a very small
percentage. Once that car is autonomous, my
rough estimate is that it is it is in use for at least a third
of the hours a week. So call it 5035 hours of the
week and it can be used for both cargo delivery and people
delivery. So even let's say people are
asleep, but you can deliver packages in the middle of the
night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be,
whatever people need at all hours of the day or night.
That same asset, the thing that that is these things that
already exist with no incremental cost change, just a
software update, now have five times or more of the utility
that they currently have. I, I am, I, I think this will be
the, the largest asset value increase in human history.
Maybe there's something bigger, but I'm, I just don't know what
it is. And so people who look in the
rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don't
think there is one. So you know that there's there,
but let the reality of autonomy is upon us.
And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive
you. So now it works very well in the
US, but of course, it will over time work just as well
everywhere else. Yeah.
So we're working hard to grow our annual volumes, our
constraint this year, our current constraint is battery
packs this year, but we're working on addressing best
constraint and I think we will make progress in addressing that
constraint. And then things are really going
to go ballistic next year and really ballistic in 27 and 28.
So, yeah, so a bit more on full self driving.
Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year over year
improvement in safety for vehicles so that the safety
numbers, if somebody has supervised full self driving
turned on or not, the safety differences are gigantic.
So and people have seen the immense improvement with version
13 and with incremental versions in version 13.
And then version 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that.
That is very significant. We launched the Cortex training
cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant
contributor to FSD advancement. And we continue to invest in
training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters.
So the training needs for optimists or optimists humanoid
robot are probably at least ultimately 10X what what's
needed for the car at least to get to the full range of of
useful roles. I'm saying how many different
roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car?
Humanoid robot is has probably what, 1000 times more uses and
more complex things than in a car.
That doesn't mean that the training scales by 1000, but
it's probably, you know, 10X now you can do this progressively.
So it doesn't mean like hotels are going to spend like $500
billion in training compute because we would obviously train
the optimist to do enough tasks to match the output of optimist
robots. But, and obviously the cost of
training is dropping dramatically with time.
So, but it is, it is like it is one of those things where I
think long term optimist will be optimist has the potential to be
north of $10 trillion in revenue.
Like it's really bananas. So then you can obviously afford
a lot of training compute in that situation.
In fact, even $500 billion training computing that
situation would be quite a good deal.
Yeah, the future is going to be incredibly different from the
past, that's for sure. We live at this unbelievable
infection point in human history.
So yeah, so in the proof, the proof is in the pudding.
So we're going to be launching unsupervised Full Self driving
as a paid service in Austin in June.
So if I've talked with the team, we feel confident in being able
to do an initial launch of unsupervised no one in the car
Full Self driving in Austin in June.
We already have Tesla's operating autonomously
unsupervised Full Self driving at our factory in Fremont and
will soon be prepared during that factory in Texas.
So thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them
at our Fremont factory in California.
They will soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the
world at the rest of our factories, which is pretty cool.
And the cars aren't just driving to exactly the same spot because
obviously it all when it collide at the same spot, the cars are
actually programmed with. With where with what lane they
need to park into to be picked up for delivery.
So they, they, they drive from the factory end of line to
their, to their destination parking spot and and the and the
to be picked up for delivery to customers.
And then doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a
day. That's pretty cool.
Like I said, these Teslas will be in the wild.
There's no one in them in June in Austin.
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