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The NHTSA just handed Tesla five
more weeks to explain why its 

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cars keep running red lights. 
The federal safety agency 

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extended Tesla's deadline to 
respond to any investigation 

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into full self driving traffic 
violations until February 23rd, 

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giving the company time to 
manually review 8313 records of 

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potential incidents. 
And Tesla says it can only 

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process about 300 records per 
day. 

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In the original January 19th 
deadline landed right in the 

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middle of a holiday. 
But this extension arrives at a 

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precarious moment for the 
automaker. 

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Elon Musk announced 2 days ago 
that Tesla will stop selling FSD

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as a one time purchase after 
February 14th, forcing all new 

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customers between $99 monthly 
subscription. 

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Now, is that date a coincidence,
or is Tesla quietly 

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repositioning its most 
controversial product before 

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regulators close in? 
The February 14th deadline is 

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the same day California's DMV 
gave Tesla to fix its misleading

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Autopilot marketing or face a 30
day sales suspension. 

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We're going to go and breakdown 
what NHTSA is actually 

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investigating, why Tesla is 
drowning in regulatory requests,

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and how the subscription pivot 
might be a legal hedge as much 

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as a business strategy. 
We will also look at why only 

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12% of Tesla owners have ever 
paid for FSD, what that means 

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for Musk's robotaxi, and we'll 
get right into that right after 

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this very short break. 
Now, the federal investigation 

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into FSD traffic violations now 
covers 2.9 million Tesla 

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vehicles, essentially every car 
equipped with a system now. 

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NHTSA opened the probe in 
October after collecting dozens 

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of reports of Teslas running red
lights, driving in the wrong 

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direction, and making illegal 
lane changes while FSD was 

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engaged. 
The agency has since logged 62 

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customer complaints, 14 Tesla 
submitted reports and four media

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accounts of incidents. 
Some drivers reported their cars

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gave no warning before behaving 
erratically. 

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Tesla's defense has remained 
consistent. 

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They say that the company argues
it has repeatedly told drivers 

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the system cannot drive cars by 
themselves. 

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Whoever sits behind the wheel 
must remain attentive and ready 

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to intervene at all times. 
Now, that language appears in 

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Tesla's documentation and owner 
manuals. 

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The company classifieds FSD as 
an SAE Level 2 partial 

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automation system, meaning the 
driver retains full 

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responsibility for operating the
vehicle and complying with 

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traffic laws at all times. 
But let's point out that the 

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product name is Full Self 
Driving. 

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Calling something Full Self 
Driving when it requires 

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constant given supervision 
creates a perception gap that 

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regulators find increasingly 
problematic. 

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California's DMV ruled last 
month that Tesla's marketing was

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deceptive under state law, 
concluding that reasonable 

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consumers can mistakenly believe
that cars can operate all by 

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themselves without human 
oversight. 

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Administrative Judge Juliet Cox 
found that Tesla's promotional 

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language implied levels of 
autonomous capabilities the cars

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simply cannot do, and they 
cannot possess this now. 

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The investigation centers on 
specific failure modes that put 

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drivers and other road users at 
risk. 

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NHTSA documents describe Tesla's
entering turn only lanes and 

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proceeding straight through 
intersections in violation of 

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lane markings. 
Others executed turns from 

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through lanes despite clear 
directional signals and peanut 

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arrows. 
Some vehicles changed lanes 

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directly into opposing traffic 
with minimal notice to drivers, 

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creating immediate collision 
hazards. 

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One pattern emerged from a 
cluster of complaints in Joppa, 

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MD, where multiple drivers 
reported the same intersection 

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triggered erratic behavior. 
Tesla claims it has since 

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addressed the issue at that 
specific location, but the 

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geographic spread of other 
incidents suggests systemic 

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problems rather than isolated 
bugs. 

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The agency is particularly 
interested in whether FSD 

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provides adequate warnings 
before these maneuvers, and many

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incident reports suggest the 
system acted without alerting 

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the driver to its intended 
behavior, leaving no time for 

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the driver to intervene. 
Tesla requested the extension on

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January 12th, explaining that 
the original deadline gave it 

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barely over a month to compile 
comprehensive data. 

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The company told regulators that
nearly two weeks of that window 

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overlapped with major holidays, 
and keyword searches for traffic

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violations return massive 
volumes of unrelated records. 

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Manually sorting through 8313 
remaining items at 300 per day 

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requires approximately 28 
additional days. 

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NHTSA granted the full 5 weeks 
test that requested. 

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Now I've been digging through 
the analytics of the show and 

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noticed about 37 to 38% of you 
are following the channel. 

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I love you. 
Thank you so much for that and 

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I'm forever grateful for you. 
You have helped us get to where 

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we are, but we need to get to 
the next level. 

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We need to level up. 
And the other 63% of you that 

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have not hit the follower 
subscribe button, you can help 

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us do that. 
All you need to do is hit the 

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follower subscribe button. 
Takes a second. 

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I've been an independent 
journalist for the last six 

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years covering SpaceX, Elon 
Musk, Tesla, Boring Company, 

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XXAI, everything Elon has been 
doing and everything in his 

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perimeter. 
And I'm going to continue doing 

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this for the next 10 years. 
And all I ask from you is one 

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second of your time to hit the 
follow or subscribe button. 

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You have no idea how much that 
helps us. 

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It is such a big deal. 
And also, if you have the 

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opportunity, leave us a five 
star review because that would 

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be amazing, especially the 
people that have been here for a

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while. 
If all of you left us a five 

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star review, we would be through
the moon right through it. 

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And I'm totally, extremely 
grateful for all of you here. 

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And I am blessed to have you in 
this community. 

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So thank you so much for being 
part of this. 

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This SFSD probe is just one of 
three major NHTSA investigations

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Tesla is juggling juggling right
now. 

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The company also faces probes 
into delayed crash reporting and

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inoperative door handles on 
Model 3 vehicles. 

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Tesla told regulators that 
responding to three large 

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information requests in short 
order is unduly burdensome and 

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affects the quality of 
responses, and the door handle 

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investigation alone covers 
roughly 179,000 vehicles from 

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2022. 
Now, a separate probe in FS DS 

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ability to handle reduced 
visibility conditions like fog 

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and sun glare has been running 
since October 2024. 

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And after multiple crashes, 
including one fatality that's 

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right on the books and the 
subscription announcement that's

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a new one, that's great. 
January 14th caught everybody 

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off guard. 
Didn't expect this, but there's 

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a pattern here. 
California's DMV gave Tesla 60 

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days to fix its deceptive 
marketing starting December 

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16th. 60 Days Later falls on 
February 14th, Valentine's Day, 

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the exact date the Elon Musk 
chose to end one time FSD 

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purchases. 
Moving to subscription only 

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detaches Tesla from the promise 
that buyers were purchasing a 

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future proof autonomous 
capability. 

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Subscription customers pay for 
what FSD delivers today, a Level

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2 driving assistance assistance 
system, nothing more. 

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That distinction matters in 
courtrooms and regulatory 

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hearings, where Tesla faces 
accusations of overselling a 

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product that has never matched 
its name. 

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Now the one time purchase option
created legal exposure. 

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Tesla no longer wants to carry. 
They don't want that burden. 

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And for years, Tesla told 
buyers, Elon Musk told buyers 

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that their cars would eventually
become robo taxis worth hundreds

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of thousands of dollars and that
FSD prices would keep rising as 

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the software improved. 
Neither prediction is true at 

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all. 
You can't use your car as a robo

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taxi right now. 
You might not be able to for the

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next 5 years if possible. 
FSD peaked at $15,000 in late 

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2022 before Tesla cut its price 
to 8000 in 2024. 

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The subscription dropped from 
199 to $99 monthly during the 

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same period. 
And at current pricing, buying 

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FSD outright only made sense if 
you believed in the autonomy 

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promise, since it would take 
nearly seven years of $99 

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monthly payments to break even 
at 8 grand. 

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Some people would prefer the 
$99, right? 

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Most car buyers do not keep 
their vehicles that long. 

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The promise faces existential 
pressure from straight 

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regulators too. 
Federal investigators and class 

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action lawyers who allege Tesla 
deceived them after the 

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technology's capabilities were 
not realized after years now. 

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Musk also admitted on a recent 
earnings called the hardware 3 

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vehicles. 
A significant portion of its 

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existing fleet cannot achieve 
full autonomy as originally 

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promised. 
Those owners were told their 

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cars had all the hardware needed
to become full self driving with

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future software updates. 
Now, Tesla says some will need 

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retrofits, though no detailed 
upgrade plans have been 

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announced. 
Moving to subscription only 

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eliminates ongoing commitments 
to driver and delivery 

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capabilities that the company 
may never achieve on legacy 

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hardware. 
New subscription customers get 

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what FSD delivers today without 
any implied promise about the 

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future and tomorrow, and Tesla 
Score business provides the 

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financial context for why FSD 
performance carries such weight.

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The company delivered 1.64 
million vehicles in 2025, down 

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9% for the prior year. 
Chinese rival BYD sold 2.26 

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million EVs during the same 
period, claiming the title Tesla

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held for years. 
CFO of Tesla disclosed in 

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October that only about 12% of 
Tesla fleets has paid for FSD. 

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Boasting that take rate became a
key milestone in Musk's new $1 

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trillion compensation package, 
which requires 10 million active

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FSD subscriptions before 2035 
for his stock awards to fully 

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vest. 
Lower upfront costs through 

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subscription only access could 
theoretically Dr. adoption, 

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though the regulatory scrutiny 
may offset any marketing 

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benefits. 
Waymo continues pulling ahead in

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the robotaxi race. 
Tesla once seemed destined to 

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dominate. 
Alpha's autonomous vehicle 

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division now completes over 
450,000 paid rides per week 

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across Austin, San Francisco, 
Phoenix, Atlanta and LA. 

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Expansion into London and Tokyo 
is planned for 2026. 

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And now Tesla launched 
supervised robo taxi testing in 

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Austin last year and offers ride
hailing with human drivers in 

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San Francisco. 
But the company still lacks the 

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permits required to test or 
operate autonomous vehicles 

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without a safety driver in 
California, the state where 

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Tesla builds half a million cars
annually, is the same state 

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threatening to suspend its sales
license over marketing language.

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The NHTSA will likely seek 
another extension request from 

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Tesla after the February 23 
deadline passes. 

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The company has already 
signalled it will ask for more 

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00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,240
time to provide detailed 
information about each 

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00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,040
complaint, including software 
versions, driver alerts and 

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crash outcomes. 
The agency wants timelines for 

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every incident starting 30 
seconds before the initial 

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violation and ending with a 
final violation, driver 

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disengagement or crash. 
The level of granularity across 

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thousands of records will take 
months to compile, according to 

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Tesla. 
But they do have access to XAI, 

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so that could be a thing they 
could use to speed up this 

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process. 
The investigation could easily 

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stretch through 2026 while Tesla
simultaneously fights 

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00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:46,000
California's marketing 
requirements and prepares for 

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00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,520
its earnings report next week.