1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:05,320 Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast. 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,720 This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that 3 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:13,560 shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink. 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:18,000 I'm your host Will Walden. SpaceX plans to launch a 5 00:00:18,080 --> 00:00:23,440 Starship or numerous Starships to Mars orbit in 2026. 6 00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:27,520 A SpaceX needs to complete orbital Starship flights before 7 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,560 attempting the Mars launch window. 8 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,280 SpaceX plans to launch a Starship or numerous Starships 9 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:39,800 to Mars orbit in 2026, but SpaceX needs to complete 10 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:41,920 numerous steps in order to get there. 11 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,520 They need to complete orbital Starship flights before 12 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,600 attempting the Mars launch window. 13 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,640 SpaceX also needs to demonstrate on orbit refueling to provide 14 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:54,080 enough propellant for the trip. And also SpaceX needs to resolve 15 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:59,200 heat shield durability for atmospheric entry at Mars speeds 16 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,360 if they do choose to enter the atmosphere Mars. 17 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,680 Now SpaceX has conducted 9 integrated Starship test flights 18 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:11,240 through mid 2025 and they reached space on the 9th flight, 19 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,160 but the Starship failed to stay under control in orbit. 20 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:19,600 SpaceX fired Raptor 3 prototype engines more than 300 times in 21 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,920 pre launch testing, and SpaceX also improved engine thrust and 22 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,640 cut engine mass in that development program. 23 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:30,280 The Raptor 3 prototypes. Now they must achieve full orbit 24 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,800 with booster recovery before targeting Mars. 25 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,960 SpaceX boosted its FAA approval toward permitting 25 Starship 26 00:01:37,960 --> 00:01:41,520 flights per year, and SpaceX expects to fly the upgraded 27 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:46,320 version 3 Starship by around late 2025, early 2026. 28 00:01:47,320 --> 00:01:52,480 The calls for the V3 craft to fly with Raptor 3 engines will 29 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,560 be what SpaceX will be using on those flights. 30 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:58,720 No, they need orbital refueling too. 31 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,480 It's a critical Mars precondition. 32 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:06,040 SpaceX must launch Taker Starships to refill a Mars bound 33 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,120 ship in orbit. They never performed A cryogenic 34 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,960 fuel transfer at scale in orbit. SpaceX needs to test docking and 35 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:18,440 fluid plumbing in zero gravity before resuming Mars missions. 36 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,160 They they face the extreme engineering challenges. 37 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,360 I've also landing on Mars. I don't think they're going to 38 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,040 do that in the first missions, but they're probably going to be 39 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,240 testing the systems while they're on the way to Mars and 40 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,400 also while they're in Mars orbit, little by little, piece 41 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,320 by piece. So the next few flights they can 42 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,680 send things or maybe some sort of cargo to the surface of Mars. 43 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,640 They'll need to manage high speed entry at 7.5 kilometers 44 00:02:45,640 --> 00:02:49,360 per second and heat shield stress in atomic oxygen 45 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,240 conditions. They got to perform a propulsive 46 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,400 landing on a very thin atmosphere that provides minimal 47 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,440 drag, unlike Earth. And they also must gather entry 48 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,320 data during the 2026 uncrewed missions to improve their 49 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,680 systems. So if they actually do enter 50 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,760 Mars orbit and go into the atmosphere, they could dip into 51 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:15,280 the atmosphere and fly out possibly if I, I'm not 100% sure 52 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,800 about this, but they might test that. 53 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:23,360 What I'm what I'm assuming is they're going to go to Mars, do 54 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,800 a bunch of Mars orbits, and then either fling A Starship into 55 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,680 space with those orbits and maybe go someplace else or do 56 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,400 some orbits and then come back and maybe orbit Earth with that 57 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:40,280 Starship if they have enough. Maybe a gravity assist by Mars. 58 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,960 I'm not 100% sure because they haven't released that data yet, 59 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,920 but they have to manage Starship development alongside. 60 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,680 There are Artemis obligations too and that's very difficult. 61 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:55,640 They're doing 2 absolutely insane missions at the same 62 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,040 time. SpaceX needs to complete an 63 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:01,440 uncrewed lunar Starship demonstration under this NASA 64 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,440 contract and they have to refuel the Starship in orbit orbit 65 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,400 before it reaches the moon for the Artemis program. 66 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:13,560 And they have to launch Taker tankers to fill the HLS craft as 67 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:18,440 well as the Mars bound ships. So once they can figure out the 68 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:23,840 on orbit refueling, they'll be in a good position to go to the 69 00:04:23,840 --> 00:04:28,000 moon and also to Mars. They have to make a lot of 70 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:33,520 starships too, so that you have to what I think it was Gwynn 71 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,440 Shotwell. So they have to do hundreds of 72 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:41,240 Starship test launches without humans on them in order to 73 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,480 launch humans in a Starship. Now, for these missions, they're 74 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,760 not going to be launching people with the Starship, but they will 75 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,120 be launching some cargo, maybe satellites for Mars as well. 76 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:56,000 Because if Starship can demonstrate that they can deploy 77 00:04:56,000 --> 00:05:00,360 Starlink satellites in Earth orbit, there's no reason why 78 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,120 they couldn't do that in Mars orbit as well. 79 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,160 Because they want to have Mars link. 80 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,720 They're working on a star link system that will communicate 81 00:05:09,840 --> 00:05:13,560 between the surface of Mars to the Mars link satellites in 82 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,320 orbit around Mars and then back to Earth. 83 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,440 And maybe there's going to be a relay station in the middle. 84 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,760 I'm not 100% sure about that because SpaceX hasn't released 85 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:28,000 any of that information yet, but they need to have Starship crew 86 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,760 certified eventually because a lunar Starship for Artemis 3 87 00:05:31,280 --> 00:05:36,560 needs to carry people from Mars orbit down to the surface of 88 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,760 Mars. And crew certified just means 89 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,880 people can live and work in the Starship or they can use the 90 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,080 Starship to transfer people. They don't need to bring people 91 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,560 back to Earth or to Mars in the Starship, but what they will do 92 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,440 is take people from Mars orbit to the surface of Mars in the 93 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,320 Starship, and it has to be certified for that. 94 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,960 They have to have a lot of launches too. 95 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,920 They have to have high cadence of launches in late 2026 to hit 96 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,440 this Mars window. They need to launch multiple 97 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,800 tankers and at least 2 Mars ships in rapid succession. 98 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,120 Now, if they do this and there's pad damage, or if there's 99 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:23,280 regulatory delays or any other major failure, it's no go. 100 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:27,480 SpaceX must maintain uninterrupted operations across 101 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:32,840 all of their launch sites, including Star Base in Texas and 102 00:06:32,840 --> 00:06:38,600 the Cape in Florida. Now, these missions are placed 103 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,240 against Artemis scheduling. SpaceX will likely perform the 104 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:48,320 uncrewed lunar HLS demo in late 2026 or early 2027, and they 105 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:52,520 also may delay Mars if NASA requires full focus on crude 106 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,120 moon landing. SpaceX can't sacrifice Artemis 107 00:06:56,120 --> 00:07:00,280 obligations without jeopardizing long term funding from NASA and 108 00:07:00,280 --> 00:07:02,080 the taxpayers of the United States. 109 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:08,320 Now, SpaceX holds 50% odds of launching to Mars in 2026, 110 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,880 according to Elon Musk said we might, we might not. 111 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:13,360 It's about a 5050 thing right now. 112 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,400 We're going to work on it and we're going to get as close as 113 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,120 possible. But like I said before, the 114 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,080 Artemis program takes precedent over the Mars program. 115 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,640 The Mars program is an internal SpaceX program. 116 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,000 It's not a NASA program. This is all SpaceX funding this, 117 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:33,560 and they made this mission so Elon Musk can do his vision of 118 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:35,520 launching something to Mars eventually. 119 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:39,640 What do you originally wanted was to launch an ICBM missile 120 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,520 from Earth and take a plant to Mars. 121 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,240 That's it. Something very simple. 122 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,120 Nobody would send him, sell him an ICBM. 123 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,320 They kept changing the price and telling him they weren't going 124 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,200 to sell it to him. They thought he was a silly 125 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,480 businessman from America. He was a Russian ICBM he was 126 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,640 trying to buy. And eventually he just said, you 127 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,400 know what, I'm just going to make my own rocket company 128 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,480 instead. That makes more sense than 129 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:08,080 trying to buy an ICBM. I mean, you know, 20 years later 130 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,520 we have a mega rocket in Starship that will be launching 131 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,640 to Mars hopefully by the end of 2026. 132 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:20,880 But you know, if Artemis program takes precedent which NASA could 133 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:25,000 really put the brakes on Mars missions in a way. 134 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:30,040 But if and just say, you know what, Elon, SpaceX, we need your 135 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:34,360 full cooperation to get people to the lunar surface. 136 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,640 We need your help and we're going to send a Starship around. 137 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:41,200 They're going to orbit the moon first before they orbit Mars for 138 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:46,680 sure. Now they there's another window 139 00:08:46,680 --> 00:08:52,760 coming up for Mars. It's 2028 and 2029 Mars window. 140 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,360 It could slip the 2028 window and they could continue with the 141 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,760 strategy. So Artemis would continue at 142 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:06,480 2026 with the HLS demo in late 2026 or early 2027. 143 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,240 Then the Mars window could slip the 2028. 144 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:10,480 And we're talking Elon time here. 145 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:14,480 So whenever Elon says they have a 5050 chance of something, more 146 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:18,960 than likely it's going to slip because remember how long we've 147 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,680 been waiting for full self driving, like 100% human 148 00:09:22,680 --> 00:09:27,840 unassisted full self driving. It's been a decade and Elon has 149 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,560 always said, well next summer or later this year we're going to 150 00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:32,360 have full self driving. Same thing. 151 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,520 Rockets are more difficult than full self driving. 152 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,160 Rocket to Mars, especially the size of a Starship is much more 153 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,680 complicated in a way than full self driving. 154 00:09:42,680 --> 00:09:49,000 So if you need to launch a rocket to the moon for the 155 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:54,560 Artemis program, then you have to do that in order to continue 156 00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:57,320 that funding from NASA so you can get the money so you can 157 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,600 launch your rocket to Mars. They can leverage lunar 158 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,480 refueling tests as progress towards Mars readiness too. 159 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:09,200 So when they go to the moon, they were going to be refueling 160 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:12,160 in Earth orbit. And then that makes sure that 161 00:10:12,560 --> 00:10:14,080 they can do that for Mars as well. 162 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,880 They'll be Mars ready because they'll be able to refuel their 163 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,400 rocket in the in the orbit of the Earth. 164 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,880 You know, if there's critical milestones that need to be hit 165 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,440 for Artemis, SpaceX will definitely do that first because 166 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:32,360 they need that money from from for the Mars missions from NASA. 167 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:38,360 Now, we don't really know what is going to happen with 168 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,880 Starship. Right now at Starbase, they're 169 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:47,480 testing Starship for Flight 10 and Flight 10 will probably be 170 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,520 very similar to Flight 9 in a way. 171 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,720 They may be do. They may do a Starlink 172 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,520 demonstration where they open the Hatch and launch some dummy 173 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:02,960 Starlinks that have some some data relay equipment on them so 174 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,440 they can see how they function in space and see how the launch 175 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,760 goes or the deployment of the Starlinks. 176 00:11:09,680 --> 00:11:12,920 But other than that, they're probably going to stick to the 177 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,720 same game plan. Launch a booster with a Starship 178 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:20,640 on top, return the booster to the launch site, and then the 179 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:26,680 Starship will get to, you know, get on orbit and then splash 180 00:11:26,680 --> 00:11:28,320 down in the Indian Ocean somewhere. 181 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,840 And then if they can figure out the Starlink deployment, that 182 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,520 will be a huge technical hurdle that they have overcome. 183 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,640 But they have to prove orbital Starship flights, booster 184 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:44,040 recovery, docking, refueling, and Mars landing all in a whole 185 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:49,600 like one sequence. And they have to be competitive 186 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,520 with the resources, with themselves, because the Mars 187 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,480 campaign and the Artemis campaign are working side by 188 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:00,920 side in parallel. So we're at a critical juncture 189 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,520 right now. And they must meet this 190 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,200 aggressive schedule. So the timeline for a Mars 191 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:11,840 mission does not slip till 2028. It's OK if it slips a few years, 192 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,320 but once it goes past that, there's going to be a longer 193 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:18,240 delay because Earth and Mars won't be that close again for a 194 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:23,400 while. So there's complex key steps 195 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:28,280 coming up this next flight. Flight 10, really important. 196 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:34,000 Flight 11, Flight 12, Flight 13, also very, very important. 197 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:38,640 And if SpaceX does succeed in launching and perhaps landing a 198 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:43,280 Starship on Mars in 2026, it would mark the beginning of a 199 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:45,560 new era of interplanetary flight. 200 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:49,880 This is effectively a trial run for Musk's ultimate vision of a 201 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,200 bustling Mars colony with millions of people. 202 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,200 And if they're forced to delay until 2028, it would not be a 203 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,600 failure so much as a realistic adjustment, giving time to get 204 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,640 the technology right, getting these rockets right. 205 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:05,880 In either case, the next few years will be critical, and also 206 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,320 exciting. By 20252026, we'll know if 207 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:16,120 Starship can fly repeatedly or if more groundwork is needed for 208 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:21,120 it and Artemis and Mars are both on the horizon and SpaceX finds 209 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:28,040 itself at the crux between Earth and making life multiplanetary. 210 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:34,400 Now, considering all facts are factors, 2028 is a more 211 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,480 realistic time frame for the first Starship Mars attempt, 212 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,840 giving SpaceX a couple more years to mature the system. 213 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:45,360 No more explosions, even a two year slip would be unsurprising. 214 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:50,280 In fact, NASA's Inspector General and GAO reports have 215 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:54,040 projected Artemis 3 and the Starship's readiness likely 216 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,880 slipping to 2028 from moon landing, which indirectly 217 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:01,200 suggests the Starship won't be fully operational much before 218 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,640 then. And even Elon Musk has 219 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,840 implicitly acknowledged this possibility by saying if they 220 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,680 miss 2026, they will try in the next window. 221 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,840 Missing one window is not mission ending. 222 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,120 It took NASA's Apollo program several tries and failures 223 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:17,000 before the successful moon landing. 224 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,880 But Mars is a much, much tougher target. 225 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:28,880 SpaceX needs to accomplish so many things by late 2026, and 226 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,480 it's very ambitious. But can they make the 2026 date 227 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:39,160 Elon Musk had hoped? Now get this Musk had originally 228 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:45,080 hoped for an uncrewed Mars mission as early as 2018 and a 229 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:49,840 crude mission by 2024. And of course, we see that none 230 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:53,280 of that has happened. Now, 2026 is the new target. 231 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,480 And of course, there's always skepticism about this, about 232 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,720 whether the schedule can be met. Is it possible? 233 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,920 Yeah, of course, if testing goes extraordinarily well. 234 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:06,720 But it leaves virtually no slack for errors or setbacks. 235 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,680 If another rocket were to explode, it could be months of 236 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:13,040 delays, 2-3 months of delays. And we launch says they have 237 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,480 about two or three rockets almost ready as star base. 238 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:21,440 So, you know, but he also says it's a 5050 chance for the 2026 239 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,520 launch. They need to hit these 240 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:27,560 milestones though. Full orbital propellant transfer 241 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,800 test, likely setting up a Starship tanker to refuel 242 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,320 another Starship in Earth orbit proving this capability works 243 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,000 without a successful refueling demo. 244 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,040 By the time a Mars mission would have to be put on hold and they 245 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:43,400 have to figure this out. They also have to do a long 246 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:47,280 duration mission shakedown and by like mid 2026. 247 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,880 And this is going to be like SpaceX might attempt an uncrewed 248 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:53,960 loop around the moon or something, or a high orbit 249 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,840 endurance test with Starship to mimic some aspects of deep space 250 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,640 missions, testing communications, life support 251 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:04,160 systems, power over days or possibly weeks. 252 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,840 It's going to take months to get to Mars, so maybe they'll do it 253 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:12,480 for two months because two week test for a 6 to 9 month trip, 254 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:17,160 that's not a lot of data to to bring in for that type of trip. 255 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,880 Additionally, around the time SpaceX would need to launch the 256 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:25,240 HLS demo it, that's of course if we stick to the 2027 crude lunar 257 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:29,800 landing mission timeline. And that will actually involve 258 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,920 multiple tanker launches in a lunar landing attempt. 259 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:39,040 So if SpaceX can nail the lunar landing attempt and also nail 260 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:46,600 those tanker, you know, Phillips and launches, then there's a 261 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,920 really good chance the SpaceX could get to Mars after that. 262 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:55,200 Now, if everything is done and late 2026 happens, and if all of 263 00:16:55,200 --> 00:17:00,640 that is successful to prepare and launch the Mars bound 264 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:04,079 Starships during the narrow window at the end of 2026, it 265 00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:09,160 could involve about 10 launches in a matter of weeks, launching 266 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,319 several tankers and a couple of Mars vehicles from Starbase and 267 00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:15,520 Kennedy Space Center. Each Mars bound Starship would 268 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,920 likely require several tanker flights for refueling before 269 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,960 departure unless the payload is kept very small. 270 00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:24,680 So they could, you know, they don't really need to take a 271 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,400 Rover or anything like that. They could take something small. 272 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:33,480 Ivan could in as a matter of fact, fulfill his obligation of 273 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:39,000 having a plant go to either a the surface of Mars or urban 274 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:43,560 orbit of Mars if they want to keep that payload very small. 275 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,000 That's, you know, very light payload. 276 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:51,720 But it's an intense campaign and that alone would be a huge feat, 277 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:57,280 especially with the high cadence launch depose maybe 10 depots, 278 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,760 Elon was saying, and some people in NASA were saying between 10 279 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,440 and 20. So I'm going to err on the side 280 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:08,880 of caution to say about 15 fuel depots in order for them to get 281 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,080 to Mars. But in the event one or more 282 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:16,480 Starships reach Mars, which they'd arrive in about mid 2027, 283 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,520 SpaceX would gather data from those Landers. 284 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:23,240 Now concurrently in 2027, focused shifts to Artemis 3 285 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,960 crude moon landing. Now this will be using the 286 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:32,160 experience from the uncrewed test, which is another mission 287 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:36,080 that must succeed to maintain credibility of the Starship 288 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,440 flight. Now, everything that they're 289 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,320 doing here is unprecedented, any number of things, a major launch 290 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,960 failure, a technical roadblock and refueling, regulatory 291 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,680 hurdles, environmental lawsuits, supply chain issues, it could 292 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,400 all slow down SpaceX and Artemis. 293 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,680 Spacex's strategy is to test as fast as possible and fail as 294 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,960 fast as possible to learn as fast as possible, which is why 295 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,960 they value having the FAA's blessing for so many Starship 296 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,240 watches. But some failures can be timely 297 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:11,120 or cost a lot of time. April 2023 cause months long 298 00:19:11,120 --> 00:19:16,640 pause on SpaceX as it improved its launchpad and the FAA 299 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:20,440 assessed safety updates because they destroyed the launchpad. 300 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,200 Basically. A similar pause in 2025 or 2026 301 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,640 could absolutely derail the Mars schedule, especially if it's 302 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,360 like a six month delay. There's also the question of 303 00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:34,840 regulatory in public perception. Launching humongous rockets 400 304 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,200 feet tall frequently carries the risks to the environment and 305 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,200 public safety. If Elon's rockets keep blowing 306 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,560 up, people are going to get worried and they're going to put 307 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,920 the kibosh on the whole thing. SpaceX already had to implement 308 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,640 mitigation measures after the early Starship tests. 309 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,040 Scattered debris a lot around the launch site. 310 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,840 If any accident were to have off site impacts, if there's some 311 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,520 debris that falls on an island where people live or hits a boat 312 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,320 or something like that, if there's any sort of catastrophic 313 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,560 explosion or some sort of red, it could prompt further reviews 314 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:12,280 or restrictions. And then they could have another 315 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,280 huge delay, six months to a year, depending on how 316 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,120 catastrophic this thing is. Now, as the company pushes 317 00:20:19,120 --> 00:20:22,520 forward, they'll need to show that they can do it safely and 318 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,840 responsibly. But like I said before, 2028, 319 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:32,200 maybe a more realistic timeline for the Starship's first Mars 320 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,480 attempt. Now, this will give SpaceX some 321 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:40,440 time to figure out exactly why the upper stage of Starship 322 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,680 keeps blowing up. If it happens again on this 323 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,960 flight, that would be four in a row. 324 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,760 And that's not good for Starship, that's not good for 325 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,920 Elon Musk, and that's not good for a Mars mission, nor is it 326 00:20:52,920 --> 00:21:00,720 good for an Artemis mission. Because if they, if they want to 327 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:05,800 launch people or I guess take people from orbit down to the 328 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,600 surface of the moon, they can't have any of that. 329 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:14,240 They can't have any sort of bad engineering going on with that. 330 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:19,680 So even if Starship can be launched, refueled, and sent on 331 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:24,520 a trans Mars trajectory, the challenge of landing on Mars is 332 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,840 absolutely enormous. No vehicle nearly as large or 333 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,640 heavy as Starship, which is about 50 meters tall and about 334 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,480 100 tons empty. And it'll be not completely 335 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:41,040 empty when it gets to Mars, but it's never nothing like that has 336 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,880 ever attempted to land on Mars. For comparison, NASA's heaviest 337 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,360 successful Lander so far, which is the Perseverance Rover in 338 00:21:48,360 --> 00:21:54,000 2021, was about one metric ton. So this is 100 times that 339 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,640 weight. Starship is 2 orders of 340 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,920 magnitude heavier than that. Starship will rely on its 341 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,000 stainless steel heat shield tiles, a stainless steel body 342 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,440 and its heat shield tiles to protect it during the blistering 343 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,720 atmospheric entry. Now this is a phase that will 344 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:16,240 subject it to intense heating. SpaceX has tested Starships heat 345 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,520 shield materials and simulated Mars atmospheric conditions, and 346 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,560 acknowledged that higher levels of atomic oxygen on Mars will 347 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,600 create harsher conditions for the heat shield during entry. 348 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,560 But ensuring the heat shield can endure entry without excessive 349 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,480 damage, especially if Starship might be reused later, is a huge 350 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,520 risk. The company's experience with 351 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,240 Starship reentries on Earth is very limited. 352 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:45,000 There's subscale tests that happened for SM8SM-9 back in 353 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,320 2020 and that demonstrated the belly flop in the flip maneuver 354 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,200 for landing from high altitude, but those are much lower speeds 355 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:56,760 than an interplanetary return. There's a non trivial chance for 356 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,480 Starships to arrive at Mars could absolutely fail and blow 357 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,840 up during entry or touchdown, which SpaceX knows and they 358 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,000 readily admit this. The whole point of the 2026 359 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,760 missions is to do what they're doing on Earth, and that's to 360 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:14,720 learn and iterate, fail fast, fail often, and fix things as 361 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:20,680 fast as possible. And when Starship reaches the 362 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,880 lower atmosphere of Mars, it'll fire its engines to perform a 363 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,840 propulsive landing. And the lower Martian gravity, 364 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,080 it's about 38% of Earth's gravity, works in Starship's 365 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,880 favor. Vehicle weighs less on Mars, but 366 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,720 the thin air means almost all the deceleration must come from 367 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,280 engines and the drag of the hull. 368 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,080 And this is because it's not going to use parachutes. 369 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,200 SpaceX will try to land very gently, but we should not be 370 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:52,920 surprised if the first attempt ends in a crash or they lose 371 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,920 signal and there's a rapid unscheduled disassembly or a 372 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,720 rut. Now, even unsuccessful landings 373 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,760 would provide data on how the vehicle behaves in Mars 374 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,640 conditions. Musk has even floated the idea 375 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,360 that they might do multiple uncrewed landings with robots 376 00:24:09,360 --> 00:24:14,120 first and only attempt a crude landing on the second or third 377 00:24:14,120 --> 00:24:16,560 wave of missions after gaining confidence. 378 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,080 So in short, developing a reliable Mars landing system is 379 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,680 a huge hurdle that will likely take several iterations. 380 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,320 That's why Spacex's 2026 missions are going to be on 381 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,360 crew. And then they'll probably have a 382 00:24:30,360 --> 00:24:32,440 few Optimus robots in there, to be honest with you. 383 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,600 I mean, they can walk now, they can navigate. 384 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,560 But I mean, if you strap them down in a rocket, they can 385 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,040 provide valuable data of what's going to happen to people when 386 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,880 they do these missions. And SpaceX expects a huge 387 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,920 learning curve with all of these missions. 388 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,760 And Artemis will learn from this. 389 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,720 The Artemis program will learn from this. 390 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,080 And the optimist robots will probably learn from this, too. 391 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:02,640 The willingness to risk failure is just part of Starships 392 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:04,760 strategy, SpaceX strategy for this. 393 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,360 Musk has openly said he promises more risky launches in order to 394 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:14,160 accelerate the development. But as we know, SpaceX and 395 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,720 Starship are running parallel to the Artemis program, the HLS 396 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:22,240 program. NASA has selected a variant of 397 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,680 Starship to land astronauts on the moon for Artemis 3 and 398 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,480 beyond, meaning SpaceX must absolutely demonstrate Starships 399 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,480 capability and lunar orbit and landing before that crude 400 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,920 mission takes place at all. This introduces schedule 401 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,920 pressure and could force SpaceX to prioritize certain tests or 402 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,880 missions that support Artemis, potentially at the expense of a 403 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,480 Mars expedition in the same time frame. 404 00:25:49,360 --> 00:25:54,640 Now, NASA's current schedule, 2025, maybe late 2020. 405 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,280 Yeah. 2025 for Artemis 2. That's crude flight around the 406 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,680 moon. Late 2026 for Artemis 3. 407 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,040 First crude landing, the Artemis program. 408 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,560 Recently the schedule was slipped and NASA officials 409 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:11,200 indicated Artemis 3 is likely to occur in 2027. 410 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,280 So this gives Elon Musk and SpaceX a little bit of time 411 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:18,880 before they have to have their crew Starship ready. 412 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,920 They've acknowledges the development delays with Starship 413 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,680 and HLS and all the other systems too, which is the space 414 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:32,680 suits landing, you know a protocols etcetera and some of 415 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:39,080 the ground systems at NASA 2026 is when Starship is needed for 416 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,160 the moon landing, which is a massive funded high priority 417 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,680 mission. Now, before Artemis 3 can 418 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,400 happen, SpaceX must one, land an uncrewed demonstration of 419 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,360 Starship HLS to lunar orbit and possibly to the lunar surface, 420 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:58,000 providing it can dock with Orion and land safely, and two, 421 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,200 perfect the orbital refueling process. 422 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,080 Since the lunar Starship will need to be refueled in Earth 423 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:08,600 orbit to have several propellants, enough propellant 424 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,960 to reach the Moon surface and return to lunar orbit, NASA's 425 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:16,440 contract with SpaceX requires a successful uncrewed landing test 426 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:23,520 prior to a crude landing. SpaceX may do a few Starship 427 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,040 attempts on the Moon, maybe some crashes on the Moon as well like 428 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,560 we talked about with Mars. This implies that in 2026, 429 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,840 SpaceX will likely be conducting A dedicated moon landing test 430 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,800 with Starship. SpaceX plans to use a modified 431 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,760 Starship without the heat shield or flaps optimized for the 432 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,280 vacuum of space and lunar surface. 433 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,400 Now for Artemis, which must be launched and refueled multiple 434 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,200 times in Earth orbit to fill its tanks for a moon journey. 435 00:27:50,120 --> 00:27:54,840 Now SpaceX will be very busy with Artemis related Starship 436 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,880 missions in 2025 through 2027. The company will have to juggle 437 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,480 the demands of NASA, which is providing billions of dollars in 438 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,040 HLS alongside its Mars aspirations. 439 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:09,080 And NASA has made it clear that crew safety and mission success 440 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,920 for Artemis are top priorities. The Artemis 3 schedule has been 441 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,280 adjusted to allow teams to work through challenges associated 442 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,160 with first time developments, operations and integration, 443 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:24,640 which gives SpaceX and Axiom, which is the spacesuit partner, 444 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,080 additional time for testing new capabilities. 445 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,040 This includes the refueling and docking techniques Starship 446 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,040 needs. And NASA will not rush a crude 447 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,040 moon landing if Starship isn't ready. 448 00:28:35,360 --> 00:28:39,520 They're not going to risk people's lives in order for them 449 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,880 just to do a mission. Stands to reason that if a 450 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,480 choice must be made, SpaceX would prioritize fulfilling the 451 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,520 Artemis program milestones over a speculative 2026 Mars launch. 452 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,920 NASA's mission is has hard deadlines and international 453 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,200 significance, whereas a private Mars demo, while it's pretty 454 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,280 exciting for all of us, can be postponed, it can be pushed back 455 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,920 a little bit now. There's also the practical 456 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:04,800 considerations of resource allocation. 457 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,720 Can SpaceX build enough Starships to do everything at 458 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,040 once? Single Mars attempt might 459 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:14,440 involve 5 Starships to Mars as Musk has said, plus perhaps 5 to 460 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,760 8 tanker Starships to fuel them simultaneously with the Starship 461 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,360 HLS vehicles and tankers needed for the Artemis 3 uncrewed and 462 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:27,400 crude missions that could easily require on the order of 10 to 15 463 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,120 Starship upper stages and a similar number of super heavy 464 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:36,200 boosters all in a short period. Now SpaceX is rapidly expanding 465 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,600 production, but this would be an unprecedented manufacturing 466 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,400 feat. They're constructing additional 467 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,800 launchpad when a Kennedy Space Center pad 39A in addition to 468 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:50,240 the star pad star based pad 2IN Texas to support higher launch 469 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:51,520 frequency. Now. 470 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:55,880 Even so, the fall 2026 window might conflict directly with 471 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,440 Artemis preparations. For instance, if Artemis 3 slips 472 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,280 to mid 2027, the uncrewed HLS demo might take place in late 473 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,280 2026. That's the same time the Mars 474 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,320 window opens. Might be unwise to attempt both 475 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,920 simultaneously as a major failure in one could impact the 476 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:18,600 other. So if Elon is sending Mars tests 477 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,840 to Earth orbit and something happens, they'll slow down the 478 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,360 whole program and the Artemis program. 479 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,200 And everybody at NASA and all of their partners would be slowed 480 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,640 down because they're trying to do the Mars program instead of 481 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,760 focusing on the Artemis program. And an explosion on the pad 482 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,960 during a Mars launch attempt could knock a launch site out of 483 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,000 Commission and delay the whole HLS launch. 484 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,320 NASA and SpaceX will have to coordinate carefully to avoid 485 00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,680 this from happening. Now there's a strategic aspect 486 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:54,240 too. NASA views the Artemis program 487 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:58,080 as a stepping stone to Mars, The plans to leverage lunar 488 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,680 experience for a human Mars mission in the twenty 30s. 489 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,200 Musk is easier to push directly to Mars sooner. 490 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,440 But as a contractor, SpaceX cannot jeopardize the Artemis 491 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,360 program. They have a huge amount of money 492 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,360 coming in from NASA. They cannot ruin the goodwill of 493 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:22,080 NASA and the taxpayers. Now I expect that if Starship is 494 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:27,000 not completely ready by late 2026, SpaceX will scrub or defer 495 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,080 the Mars mission and concentrate on getting Starship working for 496 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,960 the Moon mission first. Good news is that most of the 497 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,360 technologies needed for Artemis orbital refueling, long duration 498 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,320 life support for the crew, Starships reliability are the 499 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,280 same ones needed for Mars. So when they build the Artemis 500 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,560 rocket, it'll be very close to what they'll need for Mars. 501 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,720 So progress towards 1 is progress towards the other. 502 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,720 The difference is in mission profile. 503 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,460 The Mars mission requires surviving an atmospheric re 504 00:31:55,460 --> 00:31:58,840 entry and a long cruise for months, whereas the lunar 505 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,800 mission requires a different landing approach, no atmosphere 506 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,280 on the moon, and the capability to launch back off the moon. 507 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,920 But both demand refueling in a fully functional Starship. 508 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:16,240 Now. The forecasts say 5050 chance 509 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:20,600 for Starship to make it to Mars 2026. 510 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:26,720 By 20252026, we'll know if Starship can soar or if more 511 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,000 work is needed here on Earth for Starship to fly. 512 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:32,880 Artemis and Mars are both on the horizon. 513 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:38,000 And SpaceX finds itself at the Nexus of humanity's multi world 514 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,920 future. Now Elon has said before 515 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,800 progress is measured by the timeline to establishing a 516 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:50,000 self-sustaining civilization on Mars, and whether it happens at 517 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:55,600 26 or a bit later, SpaceX is aggressively pushing towards it. 518 00:32:56,800 --> 00:33:02,960 Now, will SpaceX have a fiery demise on the surface of Mars, 519 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,920 or will they continue pushing through and just wait a little 520 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,560 bit longer until their Starships are completely ready for this 521 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,480 amazing mission? Hey, thank you so much for 522 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,680 listening today. I really do appreciate your 523 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,200 support. If you could take a second and 524 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,160 hit this subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast 525 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,160 platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly 526 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:27,800 appreciate it. It helps out the show 527 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,480 tremendously and you'll never miss an episode. 528 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:34,040 And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you 529 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,800 caught up quickly. And please, if you want to 530 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:42,280 support the show even more, go to Atreoncom Stage Zero. 531 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,560 And please take care of yourselves and each other. 532 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:45,880 And I'll see you tomorrow.