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Tesla just did something it has 
never done before. 

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The company posted its own 
delivery expectations for the 

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fourth quarter directly to its 
investor relations website. 

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For years, Tesla has compiled a 
consensus of Wall Street analyst

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estimates, but only shared that 
data privately through emails to

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a select list of analysts and 
major investors. 

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And on Monday, it published the 
numbers for everyone to see. 

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The median expectation is 
4/23/99 vehicles. 

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For quarter 4/20/25, the average
is 4/22, 8:50. 

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That would represent a 15% drop 
from the same quarter of last 

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year. 
That is not a good number, and 

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the fact that Tesla is putting 
it out there in public ahead of 

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the actual result tells you 
something about what they expect

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the actual results to look like.
And why would a company that is 

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supposed to be all about growth 
announce in advance that it is 

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about to post a big decline? 
Now, the answer has to do with 

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the end of the federal EV tax 
credit, a record third quarter 

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that pulled the man forward in a
narrative that Tesla wants to 

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control. 
This is a defensive move. 

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We're going to walk through what
these numbers actually mean, why

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Tesla released them on their own
and what it says about what the 

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company is doing and where 
they're headed. 

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And we'll get right into that 
after this very short break. 

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Now, Tesla is expected to report
its Q4 delivery results by the 

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end of this week. 
And if the company hits the 

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consensus it published, full 
year 2025 deliveries will come 

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in at approximately 1.64 million
vehicles. 

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That is an 8.3% decline from 
2024, when Tesla delivered 1.79 

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million cars. 
It would mark the second 

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consecutive year of declining 
deliveries for the electric 

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automaker. 
In 2024, deliveries fell about 

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1%. 
This year, the drop accelerates.

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That's a problem for companies 
whose valuation depends on 

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growth. 
Tesla trades at roughly 200 

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times forward earnings. 
The stock is up about 14% this 

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year, and those numbers do not 
normally go together with 

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falling sales. 
Now, the fourth quarter was 

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always going to be difficult. 
The $7500 federal EV tax credit 

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expired on September 30th, 2025 
and under the Inflation 

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Reduction Act, the credit had 
been applied directly at the 

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point of sale, which made it 
even more attractive than the 

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old rebate structure. 
Going from that to nothing was 

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guaranteed to hurt the demand 
for a Tesla, and in the third 

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00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,320
quarter buyers rushed to lock in
the credit before it 

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disappeared. 
Tesla delivered a record 497,000

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vehicles in Q3. 
That's about 75,000 more than 

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the Q4 consensus. 
In a lot of those Q4 sales got 

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pulled forward into Q3. 
That created a vacuum in Q4 the 

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Tesla is now trying to fill. 
Now, Tesla new Q4 was going to 

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be a rough one, Elon Musk said 
so on the July earnings call, he

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warned shareholders of 
potentially rough quarters in 

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Q42025Q12026 and Q22026. 
And what he did not say was that

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Tesla would publish its own 
lowered expectations ahead of 

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the actual numbers. 
That's the unusual part. 

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And by releasing the consensus 
itself, Tesla is trying to 

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anchor the conversation. 
If the company delivers 425,000 

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vehicles, that'll look like a 
beat against the 422A50 

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benchmark. 
Without the official 

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publication, the same number 
might have been framed as a miss

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if anyone claimed 440-5000 was 
the target. 

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Now Bloomberg's consensus, which
is compiled differently, sits 

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AT4404405000 sold, and that's 
22,000 higher than Tesla's 

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posted figure. 
The gap matters because it 

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determines whether headlines say
beat or miss. 

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Now, I've been digging through 
our analytics of the show and 

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notice that 37% of you are 
following this channel. 

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00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:01,960
For you, I'm forever grateful 
the other 63% of you haven't hit

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00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,480
the follower subscribe button. 
I've been an independent 

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00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,000
journalist covering Elon Musk 
Space Flight tech for the last 

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six years, and I'll continue for
the next 10. 

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00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:14,240
And all I ask from you is one 
second of your time and hit the 

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00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,720
follow or subscribe button on 
the platform you're watching or 

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00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,440
listening on right now. 
I'm extremely grateful for you 

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and blessed to have you in this 
community. 

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So thank you very much for that.
Now, the underlying demand 

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picture is worse than the 
quarterly number suggests. 

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In November, Tesla's U.S. sales 
dropped to approximately 39,800 

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vehicles, according to estimates
from Cox Automotive. 

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That's a 23% decline from 
November 2024. 

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There's also Tesla's lowest 
monthly U.S. sales volume since 

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January 2022. 
This happened despite Tesla's 

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best efforts to stimulate 
demand. 

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After the tax credit expired, 
the company launched new 

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standard versions of the Model 3
and Model Y priced about $5000 

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lower than the previous base 
models. 

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The cheaper variants were 
supposed to offset the loss of 

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the $7500 credit. 
They did not. 

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Cox reported that the standard 
versions mostly cannibalized 

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sales of the premium versions 
rather than expanding the 

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market. 
And Tesla is pulling every lever

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that it has. 
The company is offering 0% 

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financing on the standard. 
Model Y is unusually steep 

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promotion for a model that only 
began deliveries weeks ago. 

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Tesla is also offering zero down
leases and free upgrades on 

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inventory vehicles. 
These are roughly the most 

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00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,520
aggressive end of quarter 
incentives the company has ever 

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offered. 
If the demand was there, they 

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would not be offering 0%. 
Financing and inventory levels 

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tell the same story. 
At the end of Q3, Tesla had 

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about 40 days of supply on 
dealer lots. 

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By November, the number climbed 
to 149 days, a 42% increase year

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over year. 
Vehicles that were built to meet

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pre exploration demand are now 
sitting unsold in lots. 

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Now, the US is not Tesla's only 
problem. 

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Sales have been declining in 
Europe, where the company faces 

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intense competition from Chinese
EV makers offering newer, better

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and more affordable models. 
In California, the largest EV 

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market in the country, Tesla's 
registrations fell 11.6% in 

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2024, even as the overall EV 
market grew slightly. 

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And if you remove Tesla from the
equation, California's EV market

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grew 20%. 
Tesla's market share dropped 

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from 60% in 2023 to 52.5% in 
2024. 

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That trend has continued in the 
2025 in The backlash against 

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Musk's political activities has 
not helped them at all. 

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Protests against Tesla have been
documented at dealerships and 

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service centers. 
Musk's role in the Trump 

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administration, his support for 
far right political parties in 

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Europe, and his polarizing 
public statements have alienated

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some potential buyers. 
So what does Tesla's investor 

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base see that the sales numbers 
do not show the answer. 

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Autonomy. 
Elon Musk has been pivoting the 

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company's narrative away from 
vehicle deliveries and toward 

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robotaxi's full Self driving 
software and humanoid robots. 

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Now we can argue that 
fundamentals do not matter for a

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stock like Tesla, which is a bet
on mobility, robotics and AI, 

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rather than a traditional 
automaker like Ford or 

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Chevrolet. 
Something like that. 

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00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:29,200
Tesla launches robotaxi service 
in Austin in June 2025, and Elon

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Musk has promised millions of 
autonomous vehicles on the road 

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just just a few years. 
He's been making similar 

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promises for years, though 
without actually delivering 

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anything. 
We know the Austin thing that's 

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happening right now and some 
small turnouts for the robo 

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taxis, but millions of these 
things in I think he said two 

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years. 
I don't see that happening. 

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We there's no way but investors,
they keep buying the story. 

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00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,560
The stock trades evaluations 
that assume future revenue 

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00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:02,960
streams then do not yet exist. 
Now the the Tesla consensus 

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00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,000
published came from 20 sell side
analysts. 

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00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,640
This includes Goldman Sachs, 
Morgan Stanley, Barclays, 

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00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,320
Deutsche Bank, Wedbush and UBS 
among a lot of others. 

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Tesla was careful to note that 
does not endorse any 

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information, recommendations or 
conclusions made by these 

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analysts. 
That is just a standard legal 

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language. 
The important part is that Tesla

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chose to host this data and its 
own website rather than let 

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third party aggregators control 
the narrative. 

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The press release also included 
energy storage deployment 

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estimates, and we expect Tesla 
to deploy 13.4 GW hours of 

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battery storage systems in Q4 
now that that business has been 

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growing even as vehicle sales 
decline. 

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Full year energy storage 
deployments are projected at 

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45.9 GW hours for 2025, rising 
to 63.9 GW hours in 2026 and 

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87.7 GW hours in 2027. 
The energy business does not get

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as much attention as vehicles, 
but is becoming a larger part of

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00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,440
Tesla because it's not the first
time that Tesla has lost access 

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00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:16,400
to federal EV tax credits. 
The company hit the 200,000 

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vehicle cap under the old rules 
in 2018, which triggered a phase

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out that ended the credit 
entirely by January 2020. 

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Now Tesla survived that 
transition. 

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They're here still, and the 
difference this time is the 

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competitive landscape. 
In 2020, Tesla held a dominant 

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position in the USEV market with
a few serious rivals. 

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Today, Chevrolet, Ford, others 
are bringing affordable E VS to 

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market, and Chinese 
manufacturers are pushing hard 

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in Europe and Asia, where Tesla 
can't compete in. 

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BYD unveiled technology earlier 
this year that allows its cars 

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to charge in just a few minutes.
Tesla's line is is aging. 

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The technology just isn't 
keeping up. 

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And Model 3 launched in 2017. 
The Model Y launched in 2020. 

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And apart from the Cyber truck, 
which has struggled to find 

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mainstream appeal and has been 
recalled 8 times, Tesla has not 

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00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,720
introduced a truly new product 
in years. 

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And that brings us back to Q4 
delivery consensus. 

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Tesla published those numbers 
because it knows the actual 

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00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,560
results will be weak, and by 
setting expectations low, the 

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00:10:23,560 --> 00:10:25,520
company makes it easier to claim
a win. 

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Even if deliveries fall 15% year
over year. 

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The strategy has limits. 
A second consecutive year of 

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declining sales is hard to spin 
as growth, and Tesla deliver 

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00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:41,080
fewer cars in 2025 than it did 
in 2024 and fewer in 2024 than 

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00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,080
it did in 2023. 
The cheaper standard models have

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00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,920
not reversed the trend. 
The incentives have not reversed

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00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:50,200
the trend. 
Analysts expect sales to recover

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00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,600
in 2026 as the standard versions
help test the compete in a post 

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00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,600
subsidy market. 
But the recovery isn't 

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00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,160
guaranteed. 
The question is whether the robo

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00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,840
taxi and AI narrative can 
sustain the stock price while 

189
00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,400
the core business shrinks. 
And for now, investors seem to 

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00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,400
believe it can. 
Tesla stock is up even as 

191
00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,240
deliveries fall. 
That bet will eventually be 

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00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,280
tested. 
The numbers test the release 

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00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,480
this week suggest the test is 
getting closer. 

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00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:20,680
Hey, thank you so much for 
listening today. 

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00:11:20,680 --> 00:11:22,720
I really do appreciate your 
support. 

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00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,520
If you could take a second and 
hit the subscribe or the follow 

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button on whatever podcast plat 
thing on right now, I greatly 

198
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:30,720
appreciate it. 
It helps out the show 

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00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,520
tremendously. 
And you'll nip and each episode 

200
00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,280
is about 10 minutes to get you 
caught up quickly. 

201
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:42,120
And please, if you support the 
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202
00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:44,360
and please take care of 
yourselves and each other and 

203
00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:45,240
I'll see you tomorrow.